Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy - in Sudan Project (PUSPG-WE)"

Mid-Term Review (MTR) for Evaluation Report

of the UNDP/GEF project

"Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy - in Sudan Project (PUSPG-WE)"

Project ID:00090222 PIMS Number: 4726

Evaluators

Ron Mukanya & Dr. Babiker Abdalla Ibrahim

October 2017 i |

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Contents LIST OF ACRONYMS ...... 2 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 3 2.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 12

2.1 BACKGROUND ...... 12 2.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT ...... 13 2.3 PURPOSE OF THE MID -TERM EVALUATION ...... 14 2.4 METHODOLOGY OF THE MID-TERM REVIEW (MTR) ...... 15 2.5 STRUCTURE OF THE MID -TERM REVIEW (MTR) REPORT ...... 16 3.0 THE PROJECT AND ITS SCOPE ...... 16

3.1 SHORTAGES OF ELECTRICITY ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN SUDAN ...... 16 3.2 PROBLEMS THE PROJECT SEEKS TO ADDRESS ...... 17 3.3 PROJECT GOAL AND OBJECTIVES ...... 17 3.4 PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ...... 17 3.5 PROJECT TIMING AND MILESTONES ...... 20 3.6 MAIN STAKEHOLDERS BASELINE ANALYSIS ...... 20 3.7 RESULTS EXPECTED ...... 21 3.7.1 Grid-connected power generation from wind farm introduced ...... 21 3.7.2 Policy, institutional and regulatory framework adopted ...... 22 3.7.3 The wind technology support and delivery system Strengthened ...... 22 3.7.4 Adaptive learning and replication plan supported ...... 22 4.0 MID-TERM REVIEW FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ...... 22

4.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 22 4.2. KEY OBSERVATIONS FROM STAKEHOLDER AND PROJECT STAFF INTERVIEWS ...... 23 4.3. PROJECT DELIVERY , OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES ...... 23 4.5. EFFECTIVENESS , EFFICIENCY AND TIMELINESS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ...... 32 4.6 REMAINING BARRIERS TO ACHIEVING THE PROJECT OBJECTIVE ...... 32 4.6.1 Funding for the base line project ...... 33 4.6.2 Budget revision and budget line item allocations ...... 34 4.6.3 Low Institutional Adaptive Management Capacity ...... 34 4.6.4 Low levels of Private Sector Investment Advisory ...... 35 4.7 PROJECT ADMINISTRATION AND MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS ...... 35 4.8 WORK PLANNING ...... 47 4.9 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ...... 48 4.10 PROJECT LEVEL REPORTING , MONITORING AND EVALUATION SYSTEMS ...... 51 4.11. SUSTAINABILITY ...... 52 4.11.1 Financial risks to sustainability ...... 52 4.11.2 Socio-economic risks to sustainability ...... 52 4.11.3 Institutional framework and governance risks to sustainability ...... 53 4.11.4 Environmental risks to sustainability ...... 53

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Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

List of Acronyms UNDP CO UNDP Country Office CO 2 Carbon dioxide CSP Concentrating Solar Power EE Energy Efficiency EENS Expected Energy Not Supplied EIA Environmental Impact Assessment ERA Electricity Regulatory Authority GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas GT Gas Turbine HCENR Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources IEA International Energy Agency IPP Independent Power Producer MIC Ministry of International Cooperation M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MEM Ministry of Energy and Mining MoNRPD Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources and Physical Development MoF Ministry of Finance MoM Ministry of Mining MoP Ministry of Petroleum MoSC Ministry of Science and Communications MWRE Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification MW Megawatt NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action NEC National Electricity Corporation NERC National Energy Research Centre NGO Non-Governmental Organisation O&M Operations & Maintenance PIR Project Implementation Review PMU Project Management Unit PPG Project Preparation Grant PPP Public Private Partnership PB Project Board PUSPG-WEP Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project PV Photovoltaic QPR Quarterly Progress Report RCU UNDP Regional Coordination Unit RE Renewable Energy RTA UNDP Region-Based Technical Advisor SETCO Sudanese Electricity Transmission Co. SWH Solar water heater SSMO Sudanese Standards and Metrology Organization STPG Sudanese Thermal Power Generating Co. TPR Tripartite Review TTR Terminal Tripartite Review TWh Terawatt-hour WB World Bank UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

1.0 Executive Summary

Like many developing countries, Sudan has a shortage of electricity. Approximately 35% of the population has access to electricity (MWRE-Renewable Energy Master Plan 2013). Even then, it is not reliable and experiences regular power outages. Hydro-power has the largest share of energy generation. The potential to expand hydro-power to meet future needs is limited. Sudan does not have significant oil or gas production and as a result will have to turn to importation of fossil fuels to meet future energy needs. Climate change threatens to affect rainfall patterns on which Sudan relies for the water that generates its hydro-power. This further emphasises the need for Sudan to diversify its energy sources. As part of this effort, the Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy (PUSPG-WE) project seeks to address these problems by promoting the use of wind energy in Sudan. The project supports the removal of barriers to the adoption of utility-scale wind energy tied to the national grid in Sudan. Wind energy has been identified as a priority mitigation technology by the Government of Sudan, and, although it is a mature technology globally, it has not yet been adopted in Sudan. A systems approach is proposed to integrate energy policy analysis within the broader developmental objectives of Sudan. The project also establishes regulatory frameworks for encouraging private investments in grid-connected wind energy. Sudan currently has plans to develop utility- scale wind farms in four regions: Dongola in the North, Nyala in the West, the Red Sea coastal region and Khartoum.

The development objective of the project is to help diversify Sudan's power sources and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, particularly for future expansion and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by promoting the use of wind energy. The project will therefore help increase Sudan's energy security and support its development. The project has been designed to play a catalytic role in this transformational scaling-up of wind energy, and renewable energies more broadly. The project has a total budget of US$ 217,486,364 from which US$ 250,000 is from UNDP, US$3,536,364from the GEF and the remaining from the Government, which will be utilised over a period of five years since January 2015. In addition to this, the project has planned to provide direct technical assistance to the Dongola wind farm and will aid in the replication of experiences from the Dongola wind farm to be applied to the Red Sea wind farms and subsequent wind farms. It also aims to put in place legislation and a framework to promote private sector involvement in renewable energy in Sudan. It aims to do so through four (4) interconnected outcome components, which are also expected to work collaboratively with other development projects in the areas.

The project has the following four (4) integrated outcomes; 1. Outcome1 : Grid-connected power generation from wind farm introduced. 2. Outcome 2 : Policy and institutional regulatory framework adopted. 3. Outcome 3 : The wind technology support and delivery system Strengthened. 4. Outcome 4 : Adaptive learning and replication plan supported

The purpose of this Mid-Term Review (MTR) is to provide an overall assessment of the project and an opportunity to critically assess administrative and technical strategies and issues. More specifically, the MTR is implemented to meet the following objectives: i) to assess progress being made towards the attainment of project results and impacts; ii) to provide a basis for decision making on necessary amendments to project design and improvements to project implementation; iii) to assess the effectiveness of and promote accountability for resource use; and iv) to document and disseminate lessons learned.

The evaluation gives recommendations to improve the potential of the project to achieve expected outcomes and objectives within the project timeframe. The MTR of PUSPG-WEP has identified a number of issues that are presented in the following section as recommendations for use in the way forward and implementation of similar projects in future.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Project performance and progress

Project performance

The mid-term performance of the project against the targets measured through the indicators is evaluated based on its feasibility, effectiveness, efficiency, relevance and sustainability. Most of the direct technical assistance activities to the Dongola wind farm performed so far are satisfactory and their integration to support in promoting the use of wind energy in Sudan is high. The overall performance of the project is highlighted in Table 1below.

Table 1: Overall Project Performance Intervention Feasibility Effectiveness Efficiency Relevance Sustainability Project Design 5 n/a n/a 4 n/a Implementation Approach 5 4 4 4 3 Stakeholder Involvement 1 6 5 4 R 5 Technical Reporting 5 4 4 R n/a Financial Reporting 6 4 n/a R n/a Integrated Nature 5 3 4 R 4 Office facilities and staffing 6 6 5 R 4 Capacity building support 6 5 5 R 4 Awareness Raising 6 5 4 R 4 Providing direct technical assistance to the 6 3 3 R 3 Dongola wind farm Aid in the replication of experiences from the Dongola wind farm to be applied to subsequent 5 3 3 R 3 wind farms Putting in place legislation and a framework to promote private sector involvement in renewable 5 5 n.a R 5 energy in Sudan Enabling the Government of Sudan to tender 4 3 n.a R 3 future wind farms as IPP projects Supporting existing initiatives, such as the draft 6 n/a n/a R 1 Electricity Law, the Investment Law Access to wind technologies and practices 6 5 5 R 4 Experiences gained in Dongola serve to reduce 6 5 5 R 4 the risk of investing in wind farms in Sudan Promoting the use of wind energy in Sudan 6 5 6 R 5 Replication plan to promote the replication of wind 5 4 4 R 4 farms and support replication throughout Sudan 3Stakeholder engagement 2 6 5 4 R n/a Documentation and communication 5 4 4 R 4 Professional Trainings 6 6 6 R 4 Task teams 6 6 6 R 4 Regular M&E 5 5 4 R 4

Score: Feasibility, Effectiveness, Efficiency, Coherence: 6 = highest, 0 = lowest n/a = not assessed or non-assessable.

1 Defined as the ability stakeholders to interact with one another in order to facilitate the implementation of the projects intervention (WHO, 2007:18). Available online at http://www.who.int/dietphysicalactivity/griffiths-stakeholder-involvement.pdf 2 Defined as the process by which the project involves people who may be affected by the decisions it makes or can influence the implementation of its decisions (International Finance Corporation, 2007). Available online http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/938f1a0048855805beacfe6a6515bb18/IFC_StakeholderEngagement.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Sustainability Relevance Impacts (4 = negligible risks, 1 = severe risks) 2. Relevant (R) 3. Significant (S) 1. Not relevant (NR) 2. Minimal (M) 1. Negligible (N)

The project has identified numerous best practices to overcome barriers to the market development of utility- scale wind farms in Sudan to be up-scaled, upgraded or replicated as standard interventions. While the feasibility of most interventions is good, some budget line item weighting/allocation and baseline project financing challenges appear in documentation even though significant effort and time has been put into trying to resolve the challenges. The progress towards the achievement of the Project Development Objective PDO which is “to overcome barriers to the market development of utility-scale wind farms in Sudan” so far is as highlighted in the sections below.

Project Progress

Outcome 1: Grid-connected power generation from wind farm introduced i. The project is positively progressing towards achieving its development objectives. Under this component, the project site isn’t preserved, protected or safe guarded from any encroachment threats from urban development and agricultural activities as it currently isn’t enclosed. The installation of 100 MW capacity in Dongola was not achieved due to many reasons which were a big risk yet out of the control of the project team i.e. beyond the scope of this project’s control due to the recently lifted embargo 3 that was imposed on Sudan and the snowball effects from the cessation of South Sudan from Sudan which impacted on Sudan national budget revenue from the formerly oil-rich regions lost when the South gained independence from Sudan. The biggest risk that has affected the project is how these get financed due to a +19-year embargo (which has recently been lifted ) at scale due to high financing risks that made capital premiums too costly in relation to development priorities becoming a barrier to the necessary mainstreaming of wind energy in practice. For instance, the project activities were and are still viewed as a top priority that’s imbedded as part of the day to day electricity diversification and development priority issues going forward by Sudan’s central government. As such the installing of four (4) wind farms by the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE) was also not realised due to the fact the base line project was not implemented because there have been no budget available for it at present. Central government has shown a lot of commitment and desire to try and fund the baseline as evidenced by the attempts and options tried which are well documented in this report. However, large financing capacity from central government has been severely limited and significantly constrained at present.

At an institutional level, there appears to be very high levels of awareness among policy-makers and their staff about the benefits of renewable energy. The acceptance of new technologies takes time as people get acquainted and appreciate the performance of new technologies overtime. The review team notes that as a result of the embargo, ongoing focus has to ensure that the demonstration of grid-connected power generation from wind farm must be introduced even if it’s at a much smaller scale than originally planned as the context in which this project was planned and the current context after close to three full years of implementation are vastly different.

3 Defined by as https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/embargo 1 : an order of a government prohibiting the departure of commercial ships from its ports. 2: a legal prohibition on commerce. a trade embargo.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Grid-connected power generation from wind energy is also key to raise awareness, especially of communities, leaders, policy-makers and local community development practitioners. Focus can also be put on other small-scale wind energy easier to finance options which can feed the grid ( centralised or decentralised ) with potential to upscale in phases as and when more funds become available. This is important since grid connection is being used as a catalyst to demonstrate Sudan’s commitment in renewable energy and instilling wind energy confidence in the private sector of what new government policy is whilst demonstrating how these relate to Sudan’s development priorities to achieve effective mainstreaming of mitigation efforts through the implementation of new technologies being introduced through the project. Although the levels of awareness have significantly improved amongst stakeholder involved with this project since its implementation began, the review team is of the opinion that PUSPG- WEP should still provide opportunities for continued awareness raising in relation to grid-connected power generation from renewables to keep mainstreaming the overall renewable energy development agenda of local communities and the country.

Recommendation : The project site needs to be preserved, protected or safe guarded from any encroachment from urban development and agricultural activities as it currently isn’t enclosed. Development doesn’t need to first encroach into the buffer zone/region of the site before a decision to protect it is made. Once people or activities start to happen within the sites boundaries, it’ll be difficult if not near impossible to move people off and efforts between all the relevant stakeholders to avoid this from happening is of paramount importance.

The failure to install a 100 MW grid-connected power generation capacity in Dongola can’t be blamed on the project but the changing country context which transitioned and affected central government’s financial ability. All things being equal it would have been achieved in full or partially at this stage, yet it remains a long-term possibility. However, to avoid the risk of weaning demand for wind energy (and renewables in general) after so much capacity, awareness raising had been successfully done: short to medium term risk aversion considerations must be done and a decision on which scope option to follow/take be done by December 2017 as the project will only be left with about 24 months (Jan 2018 – Dec 2019) before it ends. As a form of an urgent risk aversion mechanism whilst awaiting medium to long term positive market behaviours from the embargo upliftment, the review team suggests four (4) short to medium term time bound interventions for GEF and UNDP in principle consideration (listed below ) that will play an important role which demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind. This must be done with the intention to put in place a wind energy NAMA that can sought funding at a much bigger scale through the NAMA funding windows as a spin off from this project as Sudan’s Internal Nationally Determined Contributions INDC have mitigation as one of the aspects with wind energy forming part of that. Equally so the Green Climate Fund (GCF) can also be approached to fund a scaling up project of the proof of concept from this GEF supported project to make the most out of the current gains made through the GEF support in order to pave the way for further market development and scaled wind energy uptake in the potential areas.

The suggested four (4) short to medium term time bound interventions suggested below stem from page 13 of the ProDoc motivation which states that “ the baseline project provides a unique opportunity to start addressing these barriers with a view to favouring private-sector investment in the market development of wind energy in the medium-to-long term. Some of these barriers, namely those related to the transfer of nationally-appropriate wind energy technologies, will be addressed directly in conjunction with the baseline project. In order to generate market acceptance at a time when wind technology does not exist in Sudan, it is crucial to first demonstrate the technological viability of wind energy in the local context. Any technological

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

failure at the early stages in wind energy development will only undermine the acceptance of the technology in Sudan, resulting in an unwanted increase in yet more market barriers. Using the favourable conditions generated by the imminent Dongola wind farm to promote wind energy, other – broader – barriers will be addressed by the UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project in order to pave the way for the market development of the Red Sea wind farm and beyond ”.

Option 1: (if no decision on the baseline funding by end of November 2017 was realized, then please trigger option 2 ) o Pursue central government baseline project funding – Sudan’s central government has reiterated its commitment to this project and now intends to trigger funding a 5 MW baseline project to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind energy. This option has been pursued to three (3 years on 31 December 2017) and has stalled in previous attempts due to the reasons already mentioned earlier. It’s of paramount importance with government reiterating its commitment during this MTR that if no firm funding availability has been confirmed from central government by the end of November 2017 that option 2 is triggered. Bureaucratic systems take time and the project is almost 3 years into implementation with only 2 years left and the timing of triggering a decision has now become very critical if outcome 1 demonstration ambition is to be achieved.

Option 2: (if no decision on the baseline funding by early Dec 2017, then please trigger option 3 below ) o Scope change as project reallocates a proportion of its outcome 1 budget – consideration can be given to reallocating a proportion of the projects outcome 1 budget line items to fund a 1MW grid- connected power generation from wind demonstration plant. This will assist with proving the concept and also the disbursements of the funds as the bulk of the budget is allocated towards outcome 1 and can’t be disbursed because the baseline hasn’t been implemented as originally planned from central government funds and resulting in the project not being able to spend. Quotations and company offers received by MWRE early in 2017 alongside desktop internet research indicates that a 1MW costing in the range of USD$1.2 million to USD$2.4 million.

Option 3: (if no decision on the baseline funding by mid Dec 2017, then please trigger option 4 below ) o Scope change to small scale wind energy for water pumping – Standalone of hybrid small scale wind turbines for water pumping as an opportunity to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind energy where grid refers to “power "grid," they're referring to the transmission system for electricity” (UCSUSA, 2015). Sudan has a history of wind energy (wind mills) being used to pump water for irrigation and other purposes stretching back from the 1980s. Given the baseline funding constraints, this is another option which can be used to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind for an electric grid, though decentralised in this instance. The GEF is already funding another demonstration project in the wind energy potential areas that’s using solar energy for water pumping. Using wind could be another way of proving the concept and demonstrating how wind energy is equally good as a form of energy in these potential areas. This for example, is a community-based approach that provides opportunities for more awareness raising for wind energy as one type of a renewable energy source in order to keep mainstreaming low capital and low risk options in wind energy and renewable energy overall in Sudan. Increased awareness beyond the current levels will make it possible for the project to increase its coverage of promoting renewable energy adoption at the community level in Sudan. In the long term when the financial market confidence levels increase, large scale 100 MW capacity wind farms

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

like Dongola will become a lot easier to finance and smaller scale interventions will serve Sudan well by practically demonstrating its appetite and commitment towards renewables 4.

Option 4: (if no decision on the baseline funding by end of Dec 2017, high risk & triggers no further options ) o Scope change to small scale wind energy for demonstration at Universities – standalone of hybrid small scale wind turbines for powering university campuses or university water pumping as an opportunity to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind energy where grid refers to “power "grid," they're referring to the transmission system for electricity” (UCSUSA, 2015) 5.

Outcome 2: Policy and institutional regulatory framework adopted This is one outcome which has been highly appreciated and seen as the key to barrier removal by all the stakeholders. The project’s role in enabling a Feed-in-Tarrif (FiT) was greatly commended and appreciated as ground breaking. The policy reforms and harmonisation of legislation to enable a private sector driven wind energy market was also highly lauded by stakeholders and highlighted multiple times as something which wouldn’t have been achieved if it wasn’t for this project. Evidence on progress thus far shows that: o The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies and reports were accomplished. o The Feed-in-Tarrif (FiT) policy document and NAMA project document on progress. o The policies and legislation for renewable energy are effectively adopted and enforced. o Possible impact of onshore wind farms on Migratory Soaring Birds (MSB) along the Red Sea Coast, Sudan study and report were accomplished.

Overall, it’s safe to conclude that at this MTR stage the policy, legislative and institutional regulatory framework has been well adopted to a large extent with a few action points that are being finalised over the final duration of the project.

Recommendation : PUSPG-WEP should aim to resolve the slight technicalities mentioned about a standardised FiT that makes it attractive for new entrants’ players to enter the market at various scales. The private sector can play a significant role with complementation of households and small businesses that can generate renewable energy at various scales which can be fed into the grid during the day and vice-versa at night. Investors at all scales seeing the adopted policy, legislative and institutional regulatory framework in practice will also enable a community-based approach from technologies that can be benefited from. PUSPG-WEP’s responsibility would be restricted more to making sure implementation is fully beneficial by adopting these renewable technologies in line with the policy, legislative and institutional regulatory framework. Otherwise, a negative reputation of the project might emerge when the technology is partially implemented and does not also fully provide the benefits to the local communities by also enabling smaller players to become active in the sector.

Outcome 3: The wind technology support and delivery system strengthened

4 A 25kW wind turbine produces enough energy to power a small neighbourhood. These devices are also intended for agricultural and light industrial applications. It has also been used for years in remote village applications, where diesel power systems supply electricity for a small grid. 5 A 100kW wind turbine produces enough energy to power 15+ homes. These are not residential turbines but are community-sized wind turbine that produce the right amount of power for school and university campuses, residential developments, farms, municipalities, and a variety of businesses ranging from injection moulding factories to extrusion houses. They can also be used in small wind farms for direct grid hookup.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

The wind technology support and delivery system has been strengthened with a lot of technical training and learnings being undertaken from similar projects and contexts elsewhere which is very good. Evidence on progress thus far shows that: o 65 engineers were trained in wind technology (49 males and 16 females). o Three (3) institutions have been supported in wind technology. o Wind maps and atlas version 1.0 was developed.

Recommendation: As a medium-to-long term technology support and delivery system strengthening, the involvement of most of the institutions of higher learning and higher education from the potential wind farm locations needs to be strengthened. This should aim to build localised skills, capacity and expertise now that exists at a national level on aspects raised during the MTR like (1) wind energy planning; (2) wind assessment software; (3) Designing and assessing wind energy. Even if it’s at their own costs through Master’s and Doctoral students as a start – it triggers the technology support and delivery system strengthening from a very early stage of local graduates as the project can’t simply rely on experts to come in from Khartoum for certain simple aspects which local well capacitated technicians can do. More of these localised institutions need to start becoming active players in the renewable energy sector and be part of the learnings of this process to build local capacity and capability within this sphere of expertise at a localised level. Hybrid-ing wind energy with solar on solar powered agricultural farms for water pumping to be financed by farm owners is another avenue which is explored with cooperation from Institutions of higher education will add value to the notion of wind technology support and strengthen the delivery system. This is an area that will be required on an ongoing basis beyond the construction phase of the Dongola wind farm as it determines how the local pool of expertise is developed for a stronger Sudanese renewable energy sector.

Outcome 4: Adaptive learning and replication plan supported. Evidence on progress thus far shows that amongst others, one (1) study tour was undertaken to wind plants in Morocco (composition included 50% female and 50% male). In this component, the project also has another fifth outcome on project management where evidence on progress shows that: o The project management unit was established and is operational. o The project’s Board representing (PB) different stakeholders was established and is operational. o The project’s Technical Committee (PTC) representing different stakeholders was established and is operational.

Recommendation: as part of Adaptive learning, the 100MW baseline project should be viewed as a learning curve and the learnings adapted by going for a lesser ambitious yet immediately fundable intervention to prove the concept as recommended in outcome 1 above. A changing context in transition which Sudan found itself in pre-project implementing and now during implementation requires adaptive learnings to be drawn out of it and that the replication plan factors this risk very well and how it can be mitigated. Adopting a targeted approach for the remaining Adaptive learnings to be offered towards an identified niche would be more strategic and impactful. No desktop baseline survey on renewable energy skills or expertise required in the sector in Sudan was done for this phase of the project for the different stakeholders. Only the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) submitted a list whilst the rest of the other stakeholders didn’t. It’s worth having a survey done ( even if it’s a simple desktop exercise in consultation with the institutions of higher learning and education ) to guide targeted training prioritisation. So that the training and capacity building interventions going forward are more targeted and adapted to the immediate gaps/needs as a range of useful skills development has been undertaken thus far as intended.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Conclusions

The mid-term review team concludes that PUSPG-WEP is on target to achieve most of the results that are intended by the project for both the medium-long-term. The grid-connected power generation from wind farm process in Sudan has begun to be established which is the outcome prone to a higher risk than the rest of the outcomes due to 100MW baseline financing whose reasons and mitigation measures have already been explained under outcome 1. However, this baseline risk has been noted with measures to mitigate the risk being suggested through four logical options that can be undertaken as part of adaptive management which will render the overall project a success at its end. This project thus far has led to strengthened institutions to progressively deliver universal access to basic services that are aligned with latest UNDP Strategic Plan in Sudan and aligns to the next generation Poverty Reduction Strategy Plan (PRSP) that Sudan is finalising.

In addition, early signs suggest that in the short – medium term the project has seen improved progress on the wind farm construction at the Dongola site. Experience sharing and exposure visits on successful power generation from wind farm practices has created good insights for good international standards and practice benchmarking for those involved on the project. Very strong local partnerships between the various stakeholders have been established and adequate progress has been made towards getting local Sudanese stakeholders to own the project. MWRE has even gone to the extent of creating a general directorate for this project’s work and the renewable energy sector much more broadly. The training of personnel though welcomed as part of the project isn’t doing justice to the current ripe atmosphere of demand for renewable energy sources that Sudan is showing. This makes the need to have a grid feeding demonstration wind turbine of paramount importance as one can’t guarantee that trainees from this project will stay on without any wind farm to work on and learn from. The failure of not having any wind energy system feeding into the grid isn’t giving a positive reflection on the intent even though the policy and legislative foundation has been laid down –having a wind turbine feeding into the grid irrespective of Mega Watt scale will send positive signals to the market and the renewables sector in Sudan which will trigger more investment interest as investors (domestic and abroad) would have seen Sudan’s first wind farm feeding into the grid.

Lessons learned The implementation of the PUSPG-WE project has yielded a number of lessons that will be useful for the design of future GEF funded projects as well the implementation of similar projects in Sudan stemming from the project’s main challenges around budget allocation and efforts to finance the overall project.

1. Even though the Government of Sudan is committed to support this project, its conception has to consistently pay special attention to the stiff US economic sanctions against Sudan for the last 19 years which have made it very difficult to obtain sustainable financing for the baseline project. 2. Stakeholders are interested in seeing the technology working on Sudanese soil irrespective of scale. This has made the need to have some kind of grid feeding demonstration wind turbine constructed in Dongola more vital to avoid the risk of weaning demand on renewables after so much capacity, hype and awareness raising had been successfully done.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

3. People want to see things work and for a demonstration project, the demonstration is what stakeholders are looking out for. 4. Consultancy services or consultancy work is very costly and has skewed the project’s budget significantly high for Outcome 1 ( by more than 63% ) and Outcome 3 ( by more than 54%) of each of the proposed budget for the individual outcomes respectively. This is an indication that the initial project’s budget distribution amongst the project outcomes was not realistic and this mid-term is the appropriate time for budget review and reallocation to avail more funding for urgent activities that support the achievement of the project’s development objectives in the long run. 5. At times physical infrastructure projects come with unforeseen challenges which can be beyond the control of the project itself yet hamper progress in terms of delivery of the projects intended objective(s). 6. A shared vision is important as with challenges along the way, every interested party still hangs onto what the vision is and works towards that as evidenced by commitment all round by these project’s stakeholders to ensure that the project delivers on its objectives no matter what.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

2.0 Introduction

2.1 Background

Sudan currently has a generation capacity of 2,723 MW of power (ibid), has no wind generation capacity and no grid-connected solar capacity. Publicly-owned utilities own all of the power generation facilities, transmission and distribution lines in Sudan. The Government owns 5,984 km of 220 kV transmission lines and 965 km of 500 kV transmission lines. Approximately 35% of Sudan's population has access to electricity 6. In 2012, the power consumption per capita was 233 kWh/ year. 7There are no independent power producers (IPPs) in the country; though initiatives are underway to promote private investment in power generation. This project seeks to support those initiatives where they relate to wind power. 8

In 2012, the power transmission losses were approximately 4%, and distribution losses were approximately 18%, such that, in total, roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of the electricity generated is lost in transmission and distribution. 9 As a result, Sudan must generate 25% to 33% (MWRE 2013 – Long Term Power System Plan) more power than is consumed to overcome the transmission and distribution losses, and, in the process, emit associated greenhouse gases.

Forty-four percent of Sudan's electricity is generated from fossil fuels. The principal fossil fuels currently used for Sudan’s power generation are heavy and light fuel oils, with shares of 61% and 39% respectively of the fossil fuel used for power generation in Sudan. 10 Hydro-power plants represent 56% of Sudan's installed power generation capacity, more than any other technology. 11 To meet the Government's target of 75-80% electrification by2031, the Government plans to install 12,000 MW of additional generation capacity by 2031. This is to include 1,582 MW of renewable energy (other than large-scale hydro-power), with approximately 650 MW of wind energy. 12

The Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy project (PUSPG-WEP) was designed to support the removal of barriers to the adoption of utility-scale wind energy tied to the national grid in Sudan. Wind energy has been identified as a priority mitigation technology by the Government of Sudan, and, although it is a mature technology globally, it has not yet been adopted in Sudan. A systems approach is proposed to integrate energy policy analysis within the broader developmental objectives of Sudan. The project will also establish regulatory frameworks for encouraging private investments in grid-connected wind

6 UNESCO (2009), Electricity Access Rates . 7 Arab Union of Electricity (2012), Statistical Bulletin . 8 RCREEE (2013), Arab Future Energy Index . 9 Arab Union of Electricity (2012), Statistical Bulletin . 10 Arab Union of Electricity (2012), Statistical Bulletin. 11 Government of Sudan (2013), Second National Communication to the UNFCCC . 12 Lahmeyer International (2013), Long and Medium-Term Power System Plans of Sudan .

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

energy. Sudan currently has plans to develop utility-scale wind farms in four regions: Dongola in the North, Nyala in the South, the Red Sea coastal region and Khartoum. Against this background, Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy project was designed and launched with a development objective that includes four components.

2.2 Description of the project

The Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy project in Sudan includes four components: the implementation of an initial wind farm; support to policy and regulatory development, particularly to encourage private sector participation; strengthening the support for wind technology in the country and support an adaptive learning and replication plan. Support to the implementation of the first wind farm in Sudan, Dongola, will align the wind farm with international best practices. It will also create a case study for replication in later wind farms. The Dongola wind farm will be implemented in five phases over the lifetime of the UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project. This phasing will allow lessons-learned in it to be applied in the later phases and, perhaps more importantly, will provide five years of continuous wind farm construction-commissioning-operation that will serve as a laboratory for training personnel and developing associated tools and guidelines. The opportunity to have such continuous exposure is very rare and will assist in transferring knowledge and experience to neighbouring countries.

The project aims to help diversify Sudan's power sources and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, particularly for future expansion and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project will therefore help increase Sudan's energy security and support its development. The project has been designed to play a catalytic role in this transformational scaling-up of wind energy, and renewable energies more broadly.

The project provides a series of distinct and coordinated initiatives to achieve: • Support for the construction of the Dongola wind farm in a manner that follows international norms and best practices with respect to the wind farm and the electricity grid; • Support for a regulatory framework that paves the way for the implementation of wind farms throughout Sudan to help meet the country’s energy needs for sustainable development through Government and private-sector participation; • Capacity building to establish the technical and regulatory capacities within Sudan to promote the development of wind farms; • A replication plan to both promote the replication of wind farms throughout Sudan and support their replication by providing distilled lessons and tools from the implementation of 100 MW at Dongola wind farm.

The project’s main components were:

Outcome 1: Grid-connected power generation from wind farm introduced. Outcome 2: Policy and institutional regulatory framework adopted Outcome 3: The wind technology support and delivery system Strengthened Outcome 4: Adaptive learning and replication plan supported

In accordance with the GEF-5 Climate Change Focal Area Objective #3, to “Promote Investment in Renewable Energy Technologies”, the key success indicators of the project are:

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

• The extent to which policies and regulations for RE are adopted and enforced; • The volume of investment mobilised; and

• The number of tonnes of CO 2-equivalent avoided.

The project specifically aims to achieve the following:

• Installation of the 100 MW Dongola wind farm, while ensuring a stable grid connection. • Replication of lessons from Dongola for the Nyala, Khartoum and Red Sea wind farms. • Development of a comprehensive set of policies and regulations to encourage investment in wind power in Sudan. • Completion of technical and regulatory standards needed for connection of private-sector power generators to the grid. • Development of a wind resource map for Sudan, coupled with other geographical information, such as bird flights, to determine optimal areas for development. • Development of a NAMA around a spatially-differentiated feed-in tariff. • Development of a “one stop shop” within the Government to streamline the project development process. • Development of human capacity, through training, workshops and advanced study curricula, to support wind farm projects.

2.3 Purpose of the mid-term evaluation

The Mid-Term evaluation is intended to provide a comprehensive overall assessment of the project in order to provide opportunity to critically assess administrative and technical strategies, issues and constraints associated with implementation. The evaluation gives recommendations to improve the potential of the Project to achieve expected outcomes and meet objectives within the Project timeframe.

While according to UNDP-GEF Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) procedures were conducted continuously throughout the lifetime of long term projects by implementing agencies, mid-term reviews (MTRs) are implemented to meet the following objectives: i) to assess progress being made towards the attainment of project results and impacts as set out in the project document; ii) to provide a basis for decision making on necessary amendments to achieve the overall objectives of the project within the time frame; iii) to assess the effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability of the project and promote accountability for resource use; and iv) to document and disseminate initial lessons learned. It is in this context that the Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy project in Sudan was subjected to a mid-term review (MTR).

The overall objective of the MTR is to assess progress towards the achievement of the project objectives and outcomes as specified in the Project Document, and assess early signs of project success or failure with the goal of identifying the necessary changes to be made in order to set the project on-track to achieve its intended results. This report documents the findings of the Mid-term review of the Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan implemented through the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity with support from the United Nations Development Programme-Global Environment Facility (UNDP-GEF) since Jan. 1, 2015. The PUSPG-WE project will be implemented over a period of five (5) years until Dec. 31, 2019 and as per UNDP-GEF project management requirements, a

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mid-term review was to be conducted. UNDP Sudan Country Office commissioned this review with the involvement of the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity in Sudan as the executing agency under the National Execution Modality.

The progress towards the achievement of the Project Development Objective PDO which is “to overcome barriers to the market development of utility-scale wind farms in Sudan” is being assessed. This Mid Term Review is a planned activity that has the following specific objectives:

1. Review progress, efficiency and effectiveness of the Project implementation in terms of achieving project objectives, outcomes and delivering outputs. 2. The extent to which the project implementation approaches/strategies are contributing to the sustainability of the interventions. 3. Examine the time frame for implementing the remaining activities (considering project ends December 2019). 4. Review the financial and fiduciary aspects of the project. 5. Provide recommendations for corrective actions for the Project/Organisation’s management, government of Sudan and GEF as donor.

The objective of the project is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by promoting the use of wind energy in Sudan. The project will provide direct technical assistance to the Dongola wind farm and will aid in the replication of experiences from the Dongola wind farm to be applied to the Red Sea wind farms and subsequent wind farms. The project also aims to put in place legislation and a framework to promote private sector involvement in renewable energy in Sudan. An outcome of the UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project is to enable the Government of Sudan to tender future wind farms as IPP projects.

2.4 Methodology of the mid-term review (MTR) The MTR was conducted in a consultative, participatory, and cross learning approach that recognizes targeted stakeholders as active agents of change in the field of wind energy promotion and who have the potential power to support the achievement of the project’s universal and immediate goals. A team made up of an International Consultant and a National Consultant conducted the MTR of the PUSPG-WEP and Error! Reference source not found. highlights the MTR Methodology Matrix. To that end the MTR was based on both office and field work in Khartoum and Dongola for collection of primary data of both qualitative and quantitative nature.

The team used a variety of techniques including: a) Literature reviews where the MTR team reviewed documents including national policy and legal documents that provide the enabling framework for project implementation, the PUSPG-WE project documents and the various reports that have been produced by the project implementing entities to date including documents prepared during the preparation phase (i.e. PIF, UNDP Initiation Plan, UNDP Environmental & Social Safeguard Policy, the Project Document, project reports including Annual Project Review/PIRs, quarterly reports, national project steering committee meeting minutes, project budget revisions, lesson learned reports, national strategic and legal documents, LPAC meeting minutes, field survey reports, and any other materials that the team considers useful for this evidence-based review). b) Stakeholder interviews, and

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c) Field visits to project implementation sites.

2.5 Structure of the Mid-term Review (MTR) Report

This report is divided into chapters to meet the desired objectives as set in the ToR for this mid-term evaluation (see Annex 1: MTR TOR (excluding ToR annexes) . Chapter 1 is an Executive Summary while Chapter 2 is an Introduction that provides general background and a brief overview of the project, purpose of the evaluation, key issues addressed and the methodology used in conducting the MTR. The PUSPG-WE project is described in Chapter 3. This chapter also provides an analysis of the context within which the project was developed. This includes the problems that the project was designed to address, it’s immediate and development objectives, the main stakeholders involved in the implementation of the project as well as the outcomes and or results expected from the process.

Chapter 4 analyses the main findings of the evaluation focusing on issues of project design, its responsiveness to national and global environmental priorities and the extent to which national stakeholders were involved in the implementation of the project. Chapter 5 provides an analysis of the results achieved in implementing the project at mid-term. This includes financial planning and management and assesses whether project resources were used in an effective manner. This chapter also discusses the extent to which the project has met its intended objectives and provides a rating of specific project elements against targets set at project inception. Chapter 6 discusses recommendations and conclusions from the mid-term review exercise. Finally, the lessons learnt from the implementation of the PUSPG-WEP that could be useful in the design of similar projects in future are given in Chapter 7, and Chapter 8 is a record of the Annexes to the MTR report.

3.0 The Project and its Scope

The Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy in Sudan Project (PUSPG-WEP) commenced implementation in Jan 2015. The project is to be implemented over a five-year period ending in Dec 2019. The project is being implemented by Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation and Electricity in partnership with UNDP.

The Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE) has succeeded the Ministry of Electricity and Dams (MED) as the body responsible for the electricity sector in Sudan. MWRE is planning the installation and commissioning of four utility-scale wind farms by 2020: Dongola (100 MW), two Red Sea wind farms (Tokar and Port Sudan, 180 MW), Nyala (20 MW) and Khartoum (20 MW). 13 This time-frame coincides with the implementation of the UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project.

For the purposes of the Global Environment Facility, the baseline project consists of the Dongola and Red Sea sites. Hence, the baseline project has a total installed capacity of 280 MW that is expected to produce 849,695 MWh of renewable electricity annually when all the sites are operational. The cost of these wind farms is approximately US$523 million.

13 Following the guidance of the GEF Secretariat during PIF review, the Dongola and Red Sea wind farms form the baseline project for the purposes of the UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project. The Nyala wind farm is excluded: it is relatively small, is due to commence after Dongola (and hence lacks Dongola’s symbolic importance as Sudan’s first utility-scale wind farm), and has few additional learning or replication benefits beyond those provided by the Dongola wind farm. Moreover, the Nyala wind farm is connected to a local grid but not the national grid and hence lacks national impact and does not offer potential lessons-learned from integrate the national grid.

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3.1 Shortages of electricity issues and opportunities in Sudan

3.2 Problems the Project seeks to address

Sudan currently has a generation capacity of 2,723 MW of power (ibid), has no wind generation capacity and no grid-connected solar capacity. Publicly-owned utilities own all the power generation facilities, transmission and distribution lines in Sudan. The Government owns 5,984 km of 220 kV transmission lines and 965 km of 500 kV transmission lines. Approximately 35% of Sudan's population has access to electricity 14 . In 2012, the power consumption per capita was 233 kWh/ year. 15 There are no independent power producers (IPPs) in the country, though initiatives are underway to promote private investment in power generation. This project seeks to support those initiatives where they relate to wind power. 16 Against this background, the main objective of the project is addressing shortages of electricity in Sudan by promoting the uptake of wind energy.

3.3 Project Goal and Objectives

The goal of the project is to support Sudan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by promoting the use of wind energy in Sudan. The project will provide direct technical assistance to the Dongola wind farm and will aid in the replication of experiences from the Dongola wind farm to be applied to the Red Sea wind farms and subsequent wind farms. The project also aims to put in place legislation and a framework to promote private sector involvement in renewable energy in Sudan. An outcome of the UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project is to enable the Government of Sudan to tender future wind farms as IPP projects.

This project provides a series of distinct and coordinated initiatives to achieve: i) support for the construction of the Dongola wind farm in a manner that follows international norms and best practices with respect to the wind farm and the electricity grid; ii) support for a regulatory framework that paves the way for the implementation of wind farms throughout Sudan to help meet the country’s energy needs for sustainable development through Government and private-sector participation; iii) capacity building to establish the technical and regulatory capacities within Sudan to promote the development of wind farms; and iv) a replication plan to both promote the replication of wind farms throughout Sudan and support their replication by providing distilled lessons and tools from the implementation of Dongola.

14 UNESCO (2009), Electricity Access Rates . 15 Arab Union of Electricity (2012), Statistical Bulletin . 16 RCREEE (2013), Arab Future Energy Index .

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3.4 Project Management and Implementation Arrangements

The National Execution modality is being applied, executed by the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity, under the National Implementation Modality (NIM). UNDP is accountable for the disbursement of funds and the achievement of the project goals, according to the approved work plan. The executing agency has assigned a senior officer as a Government Project Coordinator to: (i) coordinate the project activities with activities of other Government entities; and (ii) certify the expenditures are in line with approved budgets and work-plans.

A Project Board (PB) was been established at the inception of the project to monitor project progress, to guide project implementation and to support the project in achieving its listed outputs and outcomes. It is chaired by a MWRE representative and includes representatives from UNDP, NERC, ERA, MWREPD, SSMO, SBEF, HCENR MFNE, and a Project Assurance Officer from UNDP. Other members can be invited at the decision of the PB on an as-needed basis, but taking due regard that the PB remains sufficiently lean to be operationally effective. The final list of the PB members was completed at the outset of project operations and presented in the Inception Report by taking into account the envisaged role of different parties in the PB. The composition of the project Board is as follows: No Name Title/Entity 1 Musa Omer Abulgasim Undersecretary, MWRE Project BOA 2 Abdalazim Widaa MOP 3 Mohammed Osman Mahgoob STPG 4 Salaheldin H.Elgabo G D Planning, MWRE 5 Min Htut Yin UNDP 6 Nouralla Yassin Ahmed UNDP 7 Mohmed Ahmed Mohamed Secretary General, ERA 8 Abdal Hafiz Fadallah Babikir Director, ERA 9 Nawal Hassan Mohamdain Section Head, MOFNE 10 Manal Omer Ali Program Officer, MOFNE 11 Elfadil Birama NERC 12 Hana Hamdalla HCENR 13 Yasir Abdalla Saeed RE Director, MWRE 14 Hind Elamin Elnour MWRE 15 Amin Sabri Ahmed SSMO 16 Abdalatti Osman Director, MIC 17 Ekhlas Mohamed Ali Director, MIC

The project manager participates as a non-voting member in the PB meetings and is also be responsible for compiling a summary report of the discussions and conclusions of each meeting. The PB meets on a regular basis during project implementation, at least twice per year, and it will have the responsibility of coordinating and harmonizing the actions of all the key stakeholders.

The project Management Unit (PMU): The PMU is composed of a National Project Manager (NPM), Finance and Administrative Officer, a Monitoring and Evaluation Expert (M&E) and three engineers. The PMU is responsible for the day-to-day management of the project activities and is accountable to the PB. The Project Management Unit’s overall role is to ensure comprehensive technical and management support

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is provided to project activities and local beneficiaries, such as overseeing knowledge management and Monitoring and Evaluation. The PMU has adequate multi-disciplinary technical capacity to be able to support technical, financial and assurance-related activities. The PMU is established within MWRE and coordinates its work with UNDP and other stakeholders. The Project Manager reports mainly to MWRE and shares reports to UNDP and the PB. The Terms of Reference of the key project personnel are presented in Annex 8.3 of the Project Document. The project personnel were selected on a competitive basis in accordance with the relevant UNDP rules and procedures and in consultation with the UNDP-GEF Region-based Technical Advisor.

Figure 1: Project Operational Structure

The project also has a project technical committee (PTC) . The PTC is an advisory body supporting the project management unit to implement the project document on a scientific and knowledge based manner. It represents a think-tank for the project implementation. The PTC is responsible for all aspects of the technical specifications and processes whose composition is as follows.

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Nº Name Institution

1 Mohmaed Osman Sidahmed Sudan University 2 Elfadil Braima Hamid NERC 3 Abdul Hafiz Fadalalla ERA 4 Amin Sabri SSMO 5 Hanna Hamdalla HCENR 6 Abdul Azim Widaa GDEA 7 Manal Omer Ali MIC 8 Noralla Yasin UNDP 9 Hind Elnur MWRE 10 Yasir A Said MWRE 11 Hassan Abdall Solar Man Co 12 Gamela Omer Ahmed MOFNE 13 Abdelaati Gabir Elhag MIC 14 Mohamed Sidahmed Abdalla SETCO 15 Mahjoub Eisa Khalil MWRE

The PTC is responsible for day-to-day oversight and coordination of implementation of project activities including recruitment and supervision of technical and training expertise as required for implementation of the project. The PTCs reports to project board and maintains liaison with UNDP.

The PMU is responsible for coordinating the preparation and presentation of reports to NSCPB and UNDP on a regular basis (including Annual Project Reports, Inception Report, Quarterly Reports and the Terminal Report).

3.5 Project timing and milestones

The project’s timing is opportune and appropriate, as Sudan has to act now and start building its climate resilience by investing in green energy and improving access by needy communities to sustainable energy. The project was initiated at a time when strategically Sudan is embarking to understand the planning and operational requirements of wind power, to gain experience with installation and grid integration issues, and to employ policy options that promote wind energy development within the broader context of low-carbon, climate-resilient development to catalyse climate finance. Moreover, this project thereby creates the appropriate technological, institutional, policy and capacity environment that will enhance the probability of success of the baseline wind farms and establish the pre-conditions for replication elsewhere in Sudan. A participatory process of making the country's economy green and climate resilient initially was planned to be undertaken under the ownership of MWRE and its other line ministries that are required to make this vision possible. Based on these facts the timing of the project was perfect and the milestones are realistic and being satisfactorily achieved as expected.

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3.6 Main stakeholders baseline analysis

A comprehensive stakeholder identification process was embarked upon at the time of the design of the PUSPG-WE project. Stakeholder consultation has been a key feature in the design of this LDCF Proposal, and stakeholders have been involved in identifying and prioritizing the proposed intervention activities. The project interventions involve agencies (e.g. NERC, ERA, MWREPD, SSMO, SBEF, HCENR MFNE, UNDP). To ensure the proposed project was grounded in local realities whilst aligned to national policy, the project preparation phase involved extensive consultations held in Sudan with MWRE and the North State Government where the planned Dongola farm is located. Then MWRE confirmed that the issue of the interface electronics had not been considered (or budgeted for) for any of the baseline wind farms, and that the now-completed tender process for the Dongola wind farm reflects this omission. Further, MWRE specifically emphasised the need for GEF assistance in this area. In the absence of such interface electronics, it is highly probable that the grid will face islanding problems that will lead to load management problems and further grid instabilities. As a result of the extensive stakeholder consultations and comments received, which are reflected in the project design, the project has considerable ownership by the relevant entities and stakeholders in Sudan.

3.7 Results expected

PUSPG-WEP is being implemented to overcome barriers to the market development of utility-scale wind farms in Sudan. The project will help Sudan introduce grid-connected power generation from a wind farm and by providing capacity development for policy, institutional and regulatory framework. The project proposal was designed to support adaptive learning and replication plan and strengthen wind technology support and delivery system.

3.7.1 Grid-connected power generation from wind farm introduced

The UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project will advance the baseline scenario in Sudan by creating a technical and regulatory basis for the development of wind power specifically and renewable energy in general, as many of the underlying regulations are similar. The project will support existing initiatives, such as the draft Electricity Law, the Investment Law, and the application of lessons-learned in Dongola in the construction of the Nyala and Red Sea wind farms. The experiences gained in Dongola should serve to reduce the risk of investing in wind farms in Sudan and help encourage private-sector investors to participate.

At present, the installation of 100 MW capacity in Dongola was not achieved due to many reasons some of which are out of the hands of the project team. The installation of four (40 wind farms by the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE) was also not realised due to the fact that the base line project was not implemented due to funding constraints.

In the long term, the Dongola wind farm will be owned and operated by MWRE. Future wind farms, in particular the planned wind farms on the Red Sea, are intended to be privately owned and operated as IPP projects, provided the appropriate legislation, guidelines, regulations and experience are in place to support their development as such. For this to be successful in the longer term (i.e. outside the project timeframe) needs consideration of:

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• The requirements for differentiated support for IPPs are promoted. • Combining technologies that have private investment value/potential, with risk reducing measures (like credit or local renewable energy parts manufacturing) that creates an environment for IPPs to experiment and adapt in a way that enhances their adopting of wind energy.

For this project to contribute to a long-term solution, these packages of support and the learning derived from the testing should then be costed and scaled-up, either through leveraging private sector scale up investments through adoption by the national-scale renewable energy development programmes or through emerging renewable energy finance mechanisms. The experience of the financial mechanism for solar powered irrigation pumps is an example to follow.

To effectively influence the large national scale-up programme’s efforts will require field level interaction to build a strong evidence base of effectiveness in bringing renewable energy benefits and on-going national engagement between this project’s Steering Committee and the steering committees of its sister programmes and projects.

3.7.2 Policy, institutional and regulatory framework adopted

To support improvements in policy, institutional and regulatory framework, there will be a need for effective institutional capacity to design, plan and support implementation. During the MTR Phase, the following needs have been achieved: Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies and reports were accomplished. The FiT policy document and NAMA project document and reports were produced whilst the policies and legislation for renewable energy are effectively adopted and enforced.Taking a holistic-level approach to a policy, institutional and regulatory framework facilitates an incentive-based focus with certainty amongst stakeholders to invest which is attractive as a long-term solution.

3.7.3 The wind technology support and delivery system Strengthened

Through a combination of long- and short-term technical assistance initiatives, national governments can strengthen and build wind technology support and delivery systems. Facilitating the development or strengthening of wind technology cannot be achieved without an adequate of skilled artisans and institutional delivery systems. 65 engineers were trained in diversified wind technology (49 males and 16 females) (see table), three (3) institutions were supported in wind technology while wind maps and atlas version 1.0 were produced as part of wind technology support and delivery system strengthening which can build a solid platform to demonstrate and test the wind technology in local conditions.

3.7.4Adaptive learning and replication plan supported In the face of wind energy being in its infancy in Sudan, a study tour was undertaken to wind plants in Morocco by a group from Sudan (which included 50% female and 50% male ). The main impact of the tour across all target skills will be on learning and replication systems.

4.0 Mid-term review Findings and Conclusions

4.1 Introduction

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This MTR analyses the baseline problems that the project seeks to address in line with its development objectives. The project’s performance has been made by evaluating project performance against the targets for the mid-project period through the indicators. The report followed the ToR, and covers three main areas: (i) Project Delivery (ii) Project Implementation (iii) Project Finances

4.2. Key Observations from Stakeholder and Project Staff Interviews. • Project is proceeding according to expectations of interviewed stakeholders; • There is good contact between UNDP/GEF project office and stakeholders; • Timing of project (delayed start of the projects office recruitment) could have an impact; • Project has had significant impact with local stakeholders by providing support for building local capacity; • There is good communication between project team and stakeholders at all levels except the complaint raised at regional level; • There is a lot of published outputs on WEPSD website that can be of significant benefit – especially as teaching material and learning materials for university students; • The project is viewed as having an impact at local and national levels; • The need to get the grid feeding baseline going in reality even if it’s at a very small scale has been constantly raised and flagged as critical for the future of the renewables sector in Sudan; • The Stakeholder engagement on this project has been highly satisfactory and it’s evident by the manner of participation and commitment that all the relevant stakeholders are putting towards implementing the project.

In a nutshell tables2– 5 summarise the mid-term stage progress that the project has made towards meeting the set targets.

4.3. Project delivery, Outputs and Outcomes

Table 2: Project performance under Outcome 1 Activity Done Not done In progress Outcome 1: Power Generation from Wind Energy Resources Increased Sub-outcome 1.1: Assist in the planning and procurement of • Contract for baseline wind farm construction of the access road to the Dongola wind Farm was singed. 80% of construction work was done. • Land ownership certificate was issued.

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• A state of the art wind mast (86 m high) was installed at the site. • Operate and Generate Electricity license for Dongola wind farm was issued.

Conduct detailed grid study for the The Baseline baseline wind farm project was not realized

Training on project management and - Wind farms and implementation. contracts management training -NAMA Academy Fall 2015 in workshop. -Formulating proposals for low carbon climate resilient development: Designing Green Climate Fund (GCF) Projects in Netherlands. workshop Sub-outcome 1.2:

Establishment of baseline for calculating training to update and updating the national grid emission existing grid factor factor

Development of Red Sea EIA - Completion of Dongola EIA gaps (MSB) and performing Red Sea (MSB) - Red Sea EIA study completed Development of FiT policy NAMA for Contract with Local Wind Power in Sudan consultant was made, TOR of International consultant was published and recruitment is pending with UNDP

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o The main objective of outcome 1 is to assist in increasing the share of the power generation from wind energy resources in the national grid. In this regard, the project was able to work out with the Government of the Northern State, the necessary paper work for the allocation (land ownership certificate) of the site where the baseline project near Dongola would be based. The project installed a wind mast (86 m high) at the site. The project successfully acquired the “Operation and Generation of Electricity from wind farm license” from ERA for Dongola wind farm. o The project was able to get financing from the Ministry of Finance and National Economy as a grant equivalent to USD 800,000 towards the construction of the access road from the main highway to the site (4.7 Km). The technical committee drafted the ToR, selected the contractor and signed the contract with the winning company. The company received the first payment and started the construction and completed around 80% of the access road. o The project conducted successfully a training module on wind farms and contracts management. 2 participants attended the training workshop from the different project stakeholders. o The project conducted a successful training to update the existing grid factor. 3 participants from the different project stakeholders attended the training. o The project participated in a training program on NAMA Academy Fall 2015 in Copenhagen, Denmark for 1 participant. o The project participated in a workshop on Grid Integration of RE Power Generation Systems in Amman, Jordan for 2 participants. o The project participated in a training program on Formulating proposals for low carbon climate resilient development: Designing Green Climate Fund (GCF) Projects in Netherlands for one participant. o The project contracted a wildlife expert to perform EIA for the following studies: “Gaps related to Migratory Soaring Birds (MSB) in Dongola wind farm with Emphasis on mitigation measures” and “Possible Impact of onshore Wind Farms on MSB along the Red Sea Coast”. o The project prepared the ToR, selected the consultant and contracted the winning consulting firm to develop the Red Sea EIA. The consultant produced the final report and presented it to a validation workshop that was attended by the different project stakeholders. The final report was approved and its recommendations would be adhered to in the development of the Red Sea wind farm. o The project prepared the ToR, selected and contracted the local consultant to Develop the FiT policy NAMA for Wind Power in Sudan. The consultant submitted the inception report and is developing the draft final report. The draft final report would be presented to a stakeholder’s consultation workshop.

Table 3: Project performance under Outcome 2 Activity Done Not done In progress Outcome 2: Policy, institutional and regulatory framework adopted Sub-outcome 2.1: Formulated long-term energy policy and regulations for Sudan Establish communication links with project technical partners committee members Evaluation of existing legislation and IPP local consultant report regulation for private sector involvement in grid-connected REs

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Survey of polices and codes within the Recruitment for IC to review East African Power Pool members. Sudan Grid code. National consultant was contracted Support the Integration of policies and codes compatible with EAPP members

Sub-outcome 2.2: Developed and endorsed standardized Power Purchase Agreement

Assist in the development of PPA for standardized Sudan Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for grid- connected renewable energy projects was completed Sub-outcome 2.3: Established and approved dynamic, geographically-zoned feed-in tariff

Assist in the development of FiT systems - Recruitment for IC to review for SUDAN and update FiT is under process by UNDP. - National consultant is under contract. Sub-outcome 2.4: Adopted and approved secondary legislation relevant to wind energy

assist in the development and - Recruitment for IC to implementation of IPP Act for investors in develop IPP Act.is under Wind Energy projects process by UNDP. - National consultant was contacted and completed his preliminary study assignment. Sub-outcome 2.5: Formulated and adopted grid code Assist in the development of Grid-code for - recruitment for IC to review Sudan Sudan Grid code was completed. And started his assignment. -National consultant was contracted and started his tasks. Sub-outcome 2.6: Established an operational inter-ministerial High Committee for wind energy.

Sub-outcome 2.7: Established an operational “one-stop shop” (OSS) for wind energy Assist in the development of consolidated Will be established after permitting requirements and training of finalization of FiT and IPP personnel to support permitting Act. procedures for wind projects in Sudan

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Established an operational “one-stop There is a national One-stop shop” (OSS) for wind energy investors and shop for all investment developers projects including wind energy. The project will facilitate the wind projects integration.

1) The project prepared the ToR, selected and contracted a national consultant to conduct a survey of the existing legislation and regulation for private sector involvement in grid-connected Renewable Energies. The consultant submitted a draft report of the Independent Power Producers (IPP) study and that report was validated through a consultation workshop that was attended by different stakeholders. The consultant responded to the different comments that were reported by the participants of the consultation workshop and produced the final report. 2) The project prepared the ToR and selected an international consultant for the survey of polices and codes within the East African Power Pool members (EAPP). The international consultant would also support the Integration of policies and codes compatible with EAPP members. This contract was signed. 3) The project prepared the ToR and contracted national consultant to formulate the following: a. The long-term energy policy and regulations for Sudan b. A NAMA Feed in tariffs c. A training programme 4) The project prepared the ToR(s) and selected a national and international consultant to develop and endorse a standardized Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for grid-connected renewable energy projects. The consultants prepared and submitted their final report on the most applicable PPA. 5) The project had prepared the ToR for an international consultant to assist in the development of FiT systems for SUDAN. This contract is still pending approval from UNDP. 6) The project has prepared the ToR for a consultant to assist in the development and implementation of IPP Act for investors in Wind Energy projects. This Contract is still pending approval from UNDP. 7) The project had prepared a ToR for an international consultant to assist in the formulation and adoption of grid code for the interconnection of variable renewable energy sources. This contract was signed. 8) The project conducted a training program in Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for (4) persons in South Africa and later a workshop on the same topic was arranged in Khartoum for 19 persons.

Table 4: Project performance under Outcome 3 Activity Done Not done In progress

Outcome 3: The Wind Technology support and delivery system strengthened Sub-outcome 3.1: Developed and approved wind atlas for Sudan in a GIS system Compile existing wind data and develop - Data of 15 wind - Started the wind Atlas for Sudan masts existing recruitment of across the International Firm country was to develop Sudan collected,

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archived and wind atlas is under uploaded to the processing server

Compilation of data on geology, land - GIS hosting ownership and grid connection and bird Agreement migration with SETCO

Integration of wind and other data set into wind Atlas version a Web-based GIS system 1.0 was produced

Assist in the standardization of wind - Standardization meteo-stations and relocation of wind report was measurement masts published

- Wind measurement equipment’s of 11 wind masts were calibrated in Germany Development of a national map to Started the highlight priority areas for wind recruitment of development International Firm to highlight priority areas for wind development

Sub-outcome 3.2: Local experts, technicians and practitioners capacitated to prepare local experts and practitioners have a total of 65 training (training of 100 engineers (50 persons was males + 50 females)) trained in different wind technology disciplines. Certification of technical staff on WAsP training workshop and Compilation of data for the on WAsP was development of Wind Atlas into a GIS conducted. system

Establishment of a structured training base line program for national experts’ technicians, project not academics and students throughout the implemented construction of the Dongola wind farm

Sub-outcome 3.3: Approved RE-related curricula of specialized universities and the NERC. Development of training and study 3 Meteo-weather material for universities and the national stations was research center purchased, erected and in Sudanese

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

universities and institutions. Establishing collaboration with Contract with UKCC established RE-related curricula and to review the current activities at international universities and renewable energy institutions curriculum and programs in Sudanese universities and higher education institutions was made.

1) The project signed an agreement with SETCO (Sudanese Electricity Transmission Company) to develop and produce a wind atlas for Sudan in a GIS system, with additional layers for geology, geomorphology, land ownership and type (e.g. protected areas / forests), settlements and routes of migratory birds. The project staff carried out the standardization of wind meteo-stations and relocation of wind measurement masts. A standardization report for the wind measurement equipment was produced and all the wind measurement equipment were maintained and re-calibrated in Germany especially for the wind vane and wind anemometer. The project was able to draft a ToR to recruit an international firm for the development of a national map to highlight priority areas for wind development. The recruitment process is still pending approval from UNDP. 2) The project purchased and distributed automatic meteo-weather stations for a number of higher education institutions as a training and study material for university students and the national research centers. In this regard about 3 Universities students were trained in this respect. 3) To establish collaboration with established RE-related curricula and activities at international universities and institutions, the project signed a contract with University of Khartoum Consulting Corporation (UKCC) to review the current renewable energy curriculum and programms in the Sudanese universities and higher education institutions. The consultant submitted the inception report and the final report. 4) Regarding wind resource assessment, a workshop on WAsP Software training program was conducted by the project in Khartoum for 11 persons. 5) A training course on Ammonit wind measurement equipment was attended by a project engineer in Germany, during the erection and operation phase of the procured weather stations a number of (3) persons were trained in Khartoum (NERC, U of K) 6) Regarding the wind Atlas updating, the project provided a training for 3 Engineers from SETCO GIS department on “Designing maps with ArcGIS” in Lebanon.

Table 5: Project performance under Outcome 4 Activity Done Not done In progress Outcome 4: Adaptive learning and replication plan supported Sub-outcome 4.1: Documented lessons-learned, experiences and Establishment of a quality base line management certification process project not (e.g. ISO 9001) at Dongola wind implemented farm Documentation and dissemination website, film and photos of lessons learned

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Sub-outcome 4.2: Completed regional workshops for transferring knowledge Establish Study tours and two out of planned networking connections at the regional tours was regional level. done: - Morocco tour. - Jourdan regional workshop Establish regional cooperation - Attempts to contact among the East African Power Pool with EAPP was not on the development and integration succeeded. of Renewable Energies in the East African Grid. - WillContact To EAPP through Ministry of International Cooperation. Documentation and dissemination - Project website of lessons learned. was established, all documents was securely uploaded and archived. - a series of documentary films was produced

1) Since the baseline project was not implemented, a quality management certification process (e.g. ISO 9001) at Dongola wind farm was not established.

2) The project staff collected, compiled, and disseminated documented lessons-learned, experiences and best practices related to the development of the Dongola wind farm (including website, film and photos) for the wind farm project in Sudan.

3) The project had completed regional workshops for capacity building and knowledge sharing for the technical staff of different project’s stakeholders at relevant regional countries (e.g. Morocco).

4) The project was not able to establish a regional cooperation among the East African Power Pool on the development and integration of Renewable Energies in the East African Grid. The project management tried many times to link with the EAPP, with no success.

5) The project developed a website ( www.wepsd.org ) for the project activities that is user friendly and hosted @ AWSAM Hosting ( www.awsamhosting.com ) Denver, Colorado, USA.

6) A Policy maker tour to the kingdom of Morocco to adopt the lesson learned from Morocco's Experience in the Field of Renewable Energy. The tour was arranged for (6) persons – 4 males and 2 females –

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

comprising of a (5) members of the National Assembly Committee of Energy, Water, Mining and Industry and the project manager.

Based on an analysis of the facts detailed above, the project has made significant progress towards achieving its outcomes. Capacity development includes the process whereby individuals, groups, and organisations enhance their abilities to mobilise and use resources in order to achieve their objectives on a sustainable basis (DFID, 2013). There is, in addition to the three levels in the definition, the ‘institutional’ context in which capacity development takes place. This covers the incentives, the economic, political and regulatory context and the resource base on which the context is built. Based on this DFID definition, PUSPG-WEP has made significant progress towards its outcomes.

4.4. Project ownership, stakeholders’ participation and partnerships From a development context perspective, PUSPG-WEP goals, objectives and expected results were developed in line with Sudan’s Medium-Term Power System Development Plan also targets the addition of 551 MW of renewable electricity to the national mix over the medium-to-long term Development Plan. In addition to this, the project also focused on supporting the development of private sector participation in renewable energy through the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) model. A deliberate focus of the project is redressing energy access inequality and energy poverty alleviation through the natural resources management potential that can largely be proffed as a sustainable vehicle towards poverty alleviation and climate proofing poor and vulnerable households in Sudan.

PUSPG-WEP was also formulated by Sudan nationals who understood the realities on the ground especially from the institutional strength and weakness perspective as well as from the perspective of the development needs of the country. This is clearly evidenced by the deep community grassroots engagements, analysis of the policy, socio-economic and institutional context of the project that is included in the Project Documents. Although the need for external assistance is highlighted in the PD, the project design proposed and implemented decentralised management of most of the critical elements of the project be placed in the hands of local, communal and national institutions as a way of further ensuring sustainability, ownership and commitment to build local skills, expertise and capability.

The assessment of the project formulation process and current project design for PUSPG-WEP revealed that the project emanated from a very comprehensive and robust analysis of the contextual status in Sudan. This was promised by the Government of Sudan by making considerable steps towards opening up major public service sectors to private investment, including the power sector, to help serve its population of 37 million. 17 It has already put in place incentives to encourage the participation of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in the power sector. Sudan's Investment Encouragement Act, first passed in 1999 and later updated in 2003, 2007 and 2013 identifies the power sector as a major target for investment. It specifies power projects, and especially renewable energy power projects, as having strategic importance. As such, they are eligible for incentives such as exemption from import duties and customs. Their profits are also exempt from corporate income taxes for a decade. 18 Sudan's power sector remains Government-owned but has been restructured to reflect a private-sector structure. Independent companies have been established with responsibilities for power generation, transmission and distribution, including a single

17 Central Bureau of Statistics, Sudan (2014) 18 RCREEE (2013), Arab Future Energy Index .

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company that owns and operates the Merowe Dam. This structure serves to further establish the framework for private sector participation.

The feedback from all stakeholders interviewed on the involvement of, and awareness in the project was supportive. All persons interviewed stressed the benefit of raising public awareness. Stakeholders praised initiation of discussion on promoting renewable energy as an energy source to diversify the energy mix at different levels.

Stakeholder consultation has been a key feature in the design of this project, and stakeholders have been involved in identifying and prioritizing the proposed intervention activities. The stakeholder consultation during the project implementation is supporting all the outcomes. Details of the stakeholder engagement during the PPG Phase were provided and a Stakeholder Consultation Plan was developed that outlined some of the key consultation principles and processes at a strategic level. It has been translated into practical action during the project implementation and provided guidance based on the initial stakeholder analysis, conducted as part of the project preparation process, and the consultations so far. This can be used to define further exact activities in consultation with the Project Board and Project Management Unit during the further period of implementation.

The project interventions involve national agencies. To ensure the proposed project was grounded in local realities whilst aligned to national policy, the PPG phase involved considerable stakeholder engagement and was driven through a PPG Steering Committee established as an inter-agency and multi-stakeholder coordination mechanism. The Stakeholder engagement on this project has been relatively satisfactory and it is evident by the manner of participation and commitment that all the relevant stakeholders are putting towards implementing the project.

4.5. Effectiveness, efficiency and timeliness of project implementation On the basis of the quarterly reports, discussion with project staff and with stakeholders, the project is proceeding close to the original plan apart from the baseline wind farm which is heavily delayed. The project implementation was delayed initially because of the recruitment of the project’s management unit staff being put in place. This preparatory PMU staffing recruitment work took little time, which saw the implementation of the project with a fully-fledged PMU starting in April 2015. With a fully-fledged PMU, the project implementation model is in line with other government programs, it is effective and delivered efficiently because all the programs are aimed at investment in green energy and access by needy communities to sustainable energy improved.

4.6 Remaining barriers to achieving the project objective From the document analysis and project beneficiaries’ field assessment visits, a number of barriers that were initially identified that need to be overcome in order to achieve the long-term solutions don’t exist anymore. The implementation of an initial wind farm in Dongola is the remaining critical milestones in this project implementation. A strategic decision around existing budget has to be made soon as support to the implementation of the first wind farm in Sudan, Dongola, will align the wind farm with international best practices. It will also create a case study for replication in later wind farms which Sudan so desperately needs if it’s to market itself as a renewable energy market ready economy as it solicits local and external investment in this sector. Failing to address the baseline wind farm that did not materialised to this point wont agar well for the renewable energy sector in Sudan. The opportunity to productively use the opportunities already provided to have such continuous exposure that’s very rare which will assist in

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

transferring knowledge and experience to neighbouring countries will be lost. Also, the achievement of the project’s aim to help diversify Sudan's power sources and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, particularly for future expansion and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions without a tangible wind farm on the ground in Dongola would always be debatable. So as the project’s help increase Sudan's energy security and support its development will also be debatable. The project has been designed to play a catalytic role in this transformational scaling-up of wind energy, and renewable energies more broadly and without a tangible wind farm on the ground in Dongola, this too would be debatable.

4.6.1 Funding for the base line project The project had made several attempts to avail sustainable financing for the baseline project, with little success. This was basically due to the stiff US economic sanctions against Sudan for the last 19 years. Also, the cessation of South Sudan had further aggravated the problem by the fact that Sudan had lost almost 75% of its oil revenue to the South Sudan. The Government of Sudan is committed to support this project, but due to its meagre financial resources, was not able to allocate enough financial resources for this project. Many attempts were tried with potential regional or international financial support institutions, but with no success so far. The project exerted a lot of effort to realise the necessary funding for the base line project. There have been ongoing efforts made to finance the baseline project which can be summarised as:

a) Effort of Finance the Baseline Project: -

A committee was established to manage government fund available from the Ministry of Finance and National Economy ( 17.2 million SDG for 2016 ). The project supported & hosted meetings of the committee. MWRE signed a contract with Shirian AL-Shamal Company for Roads & Dams (L.T.D) on 17.11.2016 for construction of the access road to the Dongola wind project site (4.7 km). The access road cost is 5 million SDG. 80% of the construction of the access road has been completed. A joint mission from MWRE/UNDP/ visited the pilot project site at Dongola in January 2017.

b) MWRE Effort for finance the Project: -

A lot of efforts have been exerted and many trials have been made to finance the baseline project (fully or partially). These are: i. MWRE has applied for partial funding of the first phase of Dongola wind project (10MW) through IRENA/ADFD project funding facility in his 4 th cycle. The application was not successful and the MWRE is now seeking other sources to finance the baseline project. ii. MWRE applied for funding Dongola wind project through Islamic Bank for Development for 2018 fund. iii. MWRE applied for funding Dongola wind project through Abu Dhabi Fund for Development. iv. MWRE has signed an MOU on August 2016 with the Chinese Company (Sinohydro) to implement Dongola wind project on EPC + finance basis. MWRE received the offer on Feb.2017 and under study and evaluation of the offer. v. MWRE has signed an MOU on Mar. 2016 with Florence Services & Ventures/Amda Energía Company to implement Dongola wind project on IPP basis. MWRE received the offer on Mar.2017 and under evaluation and negotiation.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

vi. MWRE established a committee to follow up and accelerate the finance of Dongola wind project on Mar.2017. The GEF project management unit PMU is part of the committee and the project is hosting the meetings of the committee. vii. In September 2017, a decision was made by the ministry to implement the pilot phase of the Dongola wind project from the ministry’s own resources. Arrangements with the Ministry of Finance and National Economy are ongoing.

4.6.2 Budget revision and budget line item allocations

With respect to budget line item allocations, the project’s outcome 1 budget which amounts to US$ 2,391,864 is significantly high (more than 63%) compared to the total grant amount. Looking carefully into the breakdown of outcome 1 budget reveals that there is a need for budget reallocation to meet other important project expenditures for the whole project life. In outcome’s 1 budget the two main items are a) consultancy work (US$ 1,331,000) and b) Equipment (US$ 800,000). It is clear that this component is heavily loaded with the proposed consultancy work.

This same challenge faces the budget allocation of outcome 3. A significant portion of the budget of outcome 3 was allocated for consultancy services (US$ 270,000) which amounts to more than 54 % of the proposed budget for this outcome. Again, this is an indication that the initial project budget’s distribution amongst project outcomes was not realistic and this is the right time for budget relocation to avail more funding for urgent activities that support the achievement of the project’s development objectives in the long run.

4.6.3 Low Institutional Adaptive Management Capacity

The institutional capacity across the feedback loop from monitoring and evaluation technical aspects requires strengthening. MS Project is being used as a project management tool which is good. However, risks from barriers like the delivery of the baseline project which hasn’t been delivered on haven’t been escalated on taken seriously on how they can be mitigated. For a demonstration project, it’s of paramount importance to practically demonstrate what’s being referred to even if it’s at a small scale – people want to see, feel and touch what the hype around the demonstration is. Failure of which discredits the project idea even though it’s a brilliant one. Other stakeholders are looking at it and questioning if reprioritisation on available funds can’t be agreed upon to make a demonstration happen, then why believe in this in the first place? The capacity of having this discussion and a resolution taken on it at PB, PTC levels has seemed to be missing and requires urgent attention. Without targeted adaptive management efforts to decide on this issue, this will create a barrier to long-term renewable energy uptake once a negative perception starts making the rounds in the sector. This was also reflected upon in most of the interview engagements, which also corroborates this finding, evidencing a lack of capacity for adaptive management, planning and implementation were cited as capacity barriers.

Whilst different stakeholders have greater capacity in certain elements than others - and the project has built on these strengths where possible – a further continuous process of capacity building across the project cycle is still needed. Some specific technical trainings will be needed (e.g. on contracting, interconnection agreements, feed in tariff negotiations, wind energy on the job training sites) whilst for the main implementation aspects it would be best to continue to take a learning by doing approach with ongoing mentoring support as required, that builds problem solving confidence and the ability to work out solutions in a systematic, decisive and consultative way on which risks to tolerate and which one not to e.g. the current

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

baseline project failures are a risk not worth tolerating and it could easily create a very bad name for the entire project.

Similarly, institutional barriers have contributed in most countries to weak coordination between those working on climate change mitigation, development and poverty reduction. Government departments responsible for poverty reduction and energy access are in some cases aware of renewable energy options, but have no means of coordination, which leads to the development of parallel efforts. In this case all the key areas within the Sudanese government alongside non-government partners/stakeholders are being well coordinated through multi-sectoral representatives in the PTC, PMU and PB structures.

4.6.4 Low levels of Private Sector Investment Advisory Access to energy, especially reliable, affordable, clean and smart electricity is important in addressing energy poverty and improving energy access in Sudan. The extent to which investors’ and people receive the advice on renewables will also affect the extent to which new techniques and practices are understood and made available for adoption. From the evidence generated during the MTR phase there were no independent power producers (IPPs) in the Sudan, though initiatives are underway to promote private investment in power generation. Certainly, the Government of Sudan has made considerable steps towards opening up major public service sectors to private investment, including the power sector, to help serve its population of 37 million. 19 It has already put in place incentives to encourage the participation of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in the power sector which has important implications for energy access as the cost for a single centralised grid system are staggering and vulnerable to high cost shocks is considerable which can be a dis-incentive for private investment. This project seeks to support those initiatives where they relate to wind power by highlighting renewable energy power projects, as having strategic importance.20 This structure serves to further establish the framework for private sector participation to keep sending out the IPPs and PPAs messaging though focused mainly on wind energy as a means of private sector investment advice – the other renewable energy sub-sectors other than wind can always easily adapt this to suit their needs and requirements’. This has been very evident and important with respect to the project’s approach to apply and promote interventions that offer value addition: differential approaches have been used by project interventions in aiding renewable energy stimulation mainly wind energy and supporting both men and women through most of the projects aspects that have been programmed to date. The project needs to continue with this intentional targeting of both male and female beneficiaries in all aspects of its outcome areas if gender inequality is to be abated.

4.7 Project Administration and Management Arrangements

PUSPG-WEP is a Nationally Executed project that is scheduled for implementation over a period of five years beginning in January 2015 implemented through the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE) which has succeeded the Ministry of Electricity and Dams (MED) as the body responsible for the electricity sector in Sudan, which is the designated institution for the implementation of the project. It has overall management oversight and monitoring responsibility over the project. UNDP Sudan Country Office has the facilitating role for project implementation, which includes assisting in the procurement of equipment, international and local consultants for the project as needed and requested by the implementing agencies.

A Project Management Unit (PMU) was established and is operational. The PMU is composed of 1) A Project Manager, 2) Technical Assistants, 3) A financial officer, and 4) logistics officer. The project established an operational Project Board and a Technical Committee representing different stakeholders in

19 Central Bureau of Statistics, Sudan (2014) 20 RCREEE (2013), Arab Future Energy Index .

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Sudan. These management instruments were very instrumental in guiding the process of project development to achieve its developmental objectives. Project implementation is guided through high-level policy guidance and orientation from a Project Board (PB) alongside a Project’s Technical Committee (PTC). A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) which is headed by a Project Manager (PM) is attached to MWRE where it has specific responsibility for project implementation. The PTC works under the supervision of MWRE. The PMU is also supervised by MWRE, who are the executing agency of the project. The PMU is also responsible to UNDP, through the executing agency, for the application of all UNDP administrative and financial regulations and procedures for the use of UNDP/GEF funds.

Table 6: Performance of the Project Board Nº Meeting Attendance Decision taken Done Not In date % done progress 1 18 Feb. 2015 93% 1. The Project Board Meeting to be held at least X twice a year. 2-The “Project Technical committee” to be changed X to “Project Technical and legal committee”.

-Finalise the project management team during two X weeks from this meeting

-The budget and the detailed plan to be approved in X the next meeting after being prepared by the project manager

-The Project Board decisions to be circulated to the X members by the secretary of the Project Board.

2 17 May 2015 72% The budget has been approved as temporary budget X until the revision of next board meeting in August 2015.

The project management should consider and build X on the activities that have been done by the different government entities.

The next Project Board meeting to be held before X August.

The detailed plan and budget should be prepared X and presented to the technical committee quarterly.

The MWRE and representatives of the MOF should X seek finance for the first phase of the baseline project.

3 17 Dec. 2015 64% Accelerate the steps towards constructing the X baseline Wind farm in Dongola because it will help in finalizing the activities of outcome one.

The project management should cooperate with and X build on the activities that have been done by ERA to facilitate and encourage the private sector investment.

The MWRE and representatives of the MOF and the X Ministry of International cooperating should seek finance for the first phase of the baseline project.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

4 17 Jan. 2017 79% Accelerate the implementation of all the elements of X the project while considering the dependency of the activity especially for the baseline project.

Consider alternative plans for the project X implementation such as offer the baseline project implementation for the IPPs.

The project team should well prepare all the X documentations translated in English language for the next mid-term review in the next July.

Initiate a committee to follow up and accelerate the X baseline project finance To follow up the advance payment for the access X road for Dongla Wind Farm project as the Ministry of Finance committed to deliver the payment The Project Board approved the annual report for the X year 2016 and the plan and budget for the year 2017.

The Board Agreed to establish a NIM Support Unit X within the UNDP to equally support the NIM projects implemented by different partners and the cost of it is to be shared proportionally between NIM projects.

The board also agreed to set limit of approving X authority of the project manager. The board delegated the chairperson, Mr. Musa Omer, to take the action and inform the project manager on his decision.

Table 7: The performance of the Technical Committee. Nº Meeting Attendance Decisions taken Done Not In date % done progress 1 8 July 2015 92% MWRE should finance the base line project internally like other power generation projects. MWRE have to contact other bidder to negotiate a down scaled offer. A new design will be required for the down scaled project which represents an opportunity for the project. Also, the local component at the Ministry of Finance and Economy (SDG15 millions) could be utilized for this purpose. The RE law 2001 is not accommodating many new developments in the sector and the approval of the new RE law is vital for the development of RE in Sudan. There exist a Draft PPA developed by the East African Power Pool (EAPP) which could useful for the project initiative in developing a PPA for Sudan. Establishing proper and functional policies and Regulations are critically vital for private sector development in the renewable energy and the project should seek maximum achievement on this output, which is successful, then it will enable private

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

investment in the sector. Otherwise it is not anticipated that, private sector will enter into the power sector as a whole. Currently available wind data deemed sufficient to kick-off the development of wind Atlas and analysis should proceed on this activity. The project is recommended to invest in new wind measurement stations as deemed necessary to cover any gaps. The project will assist in the development of standards for testing for wind measuring station for Sudan. This will be based on existing hardware, through calibration and covering any gaps. The lack of representation of the private sector in the technical committee was highlighted and in absence of active players in the wind energy across the country while having quite strong PV players, the technical committee recommended to invite key PV players to become members of the Project Technical Committee. This is deemed acceptable as the policy and regulatory issues are not only targeting wind energy player but rather renewable energy development in the country and it will be of high importance to hear the voice of those having experience in renewable energy business at large. The technical committee recommended to focus on experts from the region and countries of similar experience when deploying international consultants in the project as this will be more useful to the country than focusing purely on technical qualifications 2 5 Nov.2015 85% The MWRE requested the consultant to prepare a design for downscaled size of the project, expecting to receive the new design by next week. Then the ministry will seek to secure funding from its own resources as well as the local component funds available from the ministry of finance which is due to be missed if not utilized within the remaining time of the year. The Renewable Energy Directorate is recommended to urgently contact the National Development Directorate at the Ministry of Finance and National Economy and arrange for urgent disbursement of the budget and seek for additional contribution in next year’s budget Alternatively, the project initiated GCF concept note is recommended to be taken forward by UNDP for submission to the GCF. The consultant working on the grid code and the FiT model is expected to finalize the work

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by mid-2016 and the project will review and assist the ERA in filling the gaps.

Upon presentation on the outcomes of the workshop on PPA in South Africa (participation was financed and facilitated by the project) the Minister of Water Resources and Electricity assigned a task force chaired by the ERA to follow the development of the PPA model. The project is finalizing the recruitment of the International Consultant for this activity which is implemented in collaboration with the ERA. The activity was delayed due to slowness in UNDP business process in recruiting the consultant The new RE Law expected to be presented by the MWRE to the council of ministers soon, however, the technical committee noted that, strong efforts at all level are required to get such a law through the different approval entities The recruitment of the international consultant for the WASP training was delayed due the slow business process by UNDP. Contractual arrangements are in progress and, once over, the project is ready to go forward with this training as the software licenses were already purchased. Further, participating agencies were already identified and invited to nominate their candidates One private sector company joined the committee meeting and deemed representative for the private sector in line with the recommendation of the previous technical committee meeting.

Further, the meeting recommended top invite the Ministry of Finance and National Economy to join the technical committee as a member It was noted that, recruitment of international consultants is taking long resulting in shuffling of activities from the previous quarter and the project is currently following a parallel route to do desk review for potential consultants and requested the committee members to assist with names and addresses of consulates to undertake grid integration study for renewable energy power generation The project is recommended to provide indication of the advances against disbursement figures as part of the quarterly operation report to the technical committee UNDP has exercised a budget revision which is partially approved, intended changes should be communicated before 20th November 2015

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

The National Consultant recruited to undertake study on the effect of wind farms in Dongola and Red Sea on migratory soaring birds has presented his finding to the technical committee. The committee members provided several comments which will be addressed by the consultant in the study final version.

3 1 FEB 2016 85% QOR and AWP was approved 4 12 May 2016 86% The committee recommended including the Energy Research Centre as a member in the procurement committee for the baseline project.

It is recommended to go for small size in the pilot phase for the process of learning and avoid deployment of big machines at this stage The application for funding from IREN for wind power plant has passed the first stage and currently in the stage of preparation of the full project proposal It was noted that, Khartoum could have been a better site for the base line (first) project, however, it was clarified that, land acquisition was not possible due to obstruction to RADAR communication systems The Regulatory authority has received the final document of the Grid Code and the Tariff model. This will undergo a review process and the will assist in further development if required. - A coordination with the Sudanese Standards and Metrology(SSMO) is recommended to maintain the required IEC document by the project in the Wind/Solar Technologies to the country - It was noted by the private sector and the research/universities that no private consideration for wind in the absence of a Wind Atlas giving information on the potential on a scientific basis. As such the development of the Sudan Wind Atlas by the project was noted as crucial activities for the development of the technology in the country. The PIR (mandatory by UNDP-GEF) was considered as sufficient for informing the technical committee on the project progress against its milestones.

It was recommended to direct support planned for Sudan participation in the Eastern Power Pool (EAPP) to Sudan-Ethiopia bilateral interconnection efforts 5 18Aug.2016 86% The committee recommended to contact Wind Guard company which is preparing study for Alshiek Ibrahim Harbor wind- Energy hybrid

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project at Port Sudan for future study for the baseline project.

The committee recommended to contact university of Khartoum consultancy corporation (UKCC) as it has partner agreement with multi International consultants to recruit International Consultants (IC) for study on Grid Integration Cost The application for funding from IREN for Dongola wind power plant has submitted full project proposal and was short listed currently in the stage of recommendation by the advisory committee.

The committee recommended to have a site visit to Dongola project.

The committee recommended contacting university of Khartoum consultancy corporation (UKCC) as it has partner agreement with multi International consultants to recruit International Consultants (IC) for studies on Grid Integration Cost, revision and finalization of Sudan grid code and the Tariff model.

The committee confirm Morocco for a policy maker study tour The Committee recommended to contact the same consultant (Riso National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy–Demark) who conducted the wind Atlas for Egypt, Morocco and South Africa to develop Wind Atlas for Sudan in a GIS system.

The Committee recommended supporting the new project Manager. 6 20 Nov. 2016 86% The committee recommended contacting Lahmeyer International, ECREE, COMESA and ESCOA for recruitment of an individual consultant (IC) to develop the biding document for the baseline project.

The committee recommended to wait until the results of the IRENA and the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) are out, then proceed in signing contract with IC to develop the biding document for the baseline project because in case the project has been selected for the fund the bidding document should follow IRENA procedures.

The committee recommended to add activities progress chart to the QOR to facilitate the project follow up by the PTC

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

The committee recommended contracting national consultant for the development of framework for the Independent Power Producers (IPP) to start the work with the committee which established to develop the framework for Independent Power Producers

Committee recommended to involve the Energy & Research Centre in evaluating the wind data and installing of the wind measurement station. Committee recommended to be involved in the review of the technical documents before the final approval

7 23 Feb.2017 86% The committee recommended to delegate the preparation of the alternative scenarios for the project mid-term review in case the baseline project failed to start due to funding problems to the special committee initiated by the project board to search for funding to the baseline project.

The committee recommended preparing progress chart to facilitate the project follow up illustrating the whole project life plan and the annual plan against the actual progress. The committee recommended tight follow up to accelerate the process of the international consultant recruitment through the UNDP.

8 30 April 2017 79% Recommended to prepare all the documents which shows the effort that has been taken by the MWRE to secure the finance of the baseline wind project before project mid-term review

The committee recommended to accelerate the achievements in the second outcome before the project mid-term review.

The committee recommended to follow up with the educational institutions that received the demonstration weather station in order to insure the maximum benefit.

To maximized the benefit of the weather stations data the committee agreed to handover the third demonstration weather station to Omdurman AL ahlia university to cover Omdurman area in addition to that they have the RE research centre.

9 27 Aug. 2017 71% The committee recommended that MWRI will continue on the efforts to implement the

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Dongola Wind farm (dismantle units) and should include the project in the 2018 budget.

The committee recommended to arrange a meeting between the MWRE-RE Directorate, WEP and UNDP staff to discuss the delay from UNDP side to recruit the (IC) for Grid Code, IPP, FiT and Sudan Wind Atlas before the Project Board meeting.

The committee recommended to distribute soft copies of the PPA to members of committee

The committee recommended MTR Auditor to visit NERC ′ & U of K. Energy Research Centre ′ weather station The committee recommended that ERA to get the available RE standards from Sudanese Standards and Metrology Organization (SSMO).

Table 8: The performance of the project management unit (field visits) Nº Mission Description Place Duration Team members 1 Site investigation for effect of wind turbines on Red Sea state, 6 days MSB consultant, Migratory Soaring Birds in the Red Sea project area Port Sudan based 1 Oct 2015 WEP (Mohammed Goal, Eait, Suakin and Tokar) 2 Site investigation for effect of wind turbines on Northern Sudan, 4 days MSB consultant, Migratory soaring Birds in Dongola Dongola based 22 Oct 2015 WEP 3 Support MWRE/RE in the reception of Dongola wind Dongola 3 days 3(WEP, MWRE) meteo mast from the contractor 19 Jan 2016 4 Assist MWRE/RE department to maintain the wind Nyala 4 days 2(WEP, MWRE) meteo mast @ Nyala site 27 Feb 2016 5 Dongola wind farm site visit with UNDP country office Dongola 2 days 9 (MWRE, ERA, team 7/3 and UNDP-Sudan, 9/3/2016 Indian Embassy) 6 Assist MWRE/RE department to maintain the wind Toker 4 days 2(WEP, MWRE) meteo mast @ Toker site 9-12 March 2016 7 Civil-work committee: Access Road constructions Dongola 4 days 2(WEP, STPG) follow up. 1-4 April 2017 8 Determination of Access Road path from Dongola Dongola 3 days 2 (WEP, SETCO) highway to wind farm site 30 May – 1 + Urban planning June 2016 Engineer(s) Northern state 9 Site visit to Ministry of Oil and Gas to storage area to Al-Kadaro, (2 times) Ministry of Oil, acquire and transfer the property of number of (11) Khartoum North 6 April 2016 MWRE, WEP wind meteo masts to MWRE. 16June 2016

10 Civil-work committee: delegation of Access Road Dongola 4 days 2 (WEP, STPG) construction work to Shirian Al-Shamal Company 29 Nov 2016 11 Civil-work committee: Access Road constructions Dongola 2 days WEP follow up. 20 Sept 2017

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Table 9: The performance of the project management unit (meetings with partners) Nº Description Date/Place Parties 1 Presentation about the IPP implementation in power 9 Nov 2015 SETCO, MWRE generation: case studies, Thailand. WEP office, Khartoum 2 IPP committee: first meeting: HOW-TO establish IPP 3 Feb 2016 MWRE, ERA, WEP in Sudan. WEP office, Khartoum 3 Assist MWRE-RE directorate to acquire and transfer 6 April 2016 Ministry of Oil, MWRE, the property of a number of (11) wind meteo masts Ministry of Oil WEP from the Ministry of Oil and Gas. Al-Kadaro store site, Khartoum North 4 Evaluation of the technical/financial offers of the 11 April 2016 WEP bidders to supply a number of (3) weather station for WEP office, Khartoum Research purposes. 5 Civil-work committee: - first meeting - determination of 17 April 2016 MWRE, STPG, WEP the civil work that can be funded by the local WEP office, Khartoum component … etc. 6 Meeting with Government of the Northern state to 1st June 2016 MWRE- discuss the wind farm Land Lease Issues and access undersecretary, road to farm site Northern state Governor, Agriculture and Urban Planning ministers/northern state, WEP 7 Meeting with ERA to grant the licence of “Operate and 7 June 2016 ERA, WEP Generate Electricity from wind farm” for Dongola wind ERA office, Khartoum farm 8 Civil-work committee: develop a road map guideline 19 July 2016 MWRE, STPG, WEP, for the construction work of Dongola wind farm Access WEP office, Khartoum SETCO Road. 9 Meeting with National Energy Research centre, 25 July 2016 WEP, NERC turnover a Copy of IEC standards regarding wind and NERC HQ, solar. Khartoum 10 Meeting with MWRE-solar pumping project, turnover a 25 July 2016 WEP, MWRE/solar Copy of IEC standards regarding solar. MWRE RE directorate pumping project Khartoum 11 Meeting with MWRE, turnover a Copy of IEC 25 July 2016 WEP, standards regarding wind and solar. MWRE RE directorate MWRE/SEDC/Rural Khartoum Electrification dept. 12 Meeting with MWRE, turnover a Copy of IEC 25 July 2016 WEP, MWRE standards regarding wind and solar. MWRE RE directorate Khartoum 13 Meeting with the University of Khartoum Consultancy 26 July 2016 University of Khartoum co to clarify the requirements of ESIA study for RED WEP office, Khartoum Consultancy co, WEP sea coast wind farms in Sudan 14 Meeting with Energy Research centre, University of 27 July 2016 WEP, R-Centre U of K Khartoum, turnover a Copy of IEC standards regarding UofK, Khartoum wind and solar. 15 Evaluation of technical and financial offers for ESIA- 2 Aug 2016 RED sea coast study WEP office, Khartoum 16 Civil-work committee: review the design and quantities 21 Aug 2016 MWRE, STPG, WEP submitted by Urban planning/Northern Sudan state WEP office, Khartoum Access Road construction. 17 Civil-work committee: drafting of technical 23 Aug 2016 MWRE, STPG, WEP specifications for Dongola wind farm Access Road WEP office, Khartoum construction.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

18 Civil-work committee: approval of technical 5 Sept 2016 Ministry of Finance, specifications and do Bidding work for Dongola wind WEP office, Khartoum MWRE, SETCO, farm Access Road construction. STPG, WEP 19 Publishing the “PPA for wind turbine and wind farms in 21 Sept 2016 MWRE, ERA, UNDP Sudan”. Distributing copies for relevant stakeholders. WEP office, Khartoum 20 Civil-work committee: finalizing the Bidding process 16 Oct 2016 Ministry of Finance, and select the contractor for the Access Road WEP office, Khartoum SETCO, MWRE, construction. Concrete Co, WEP 21 Meeting with National Energy Research centre, 10 Jan 2017 WEP, NERC turnover weather station Equipment to NERC. NERC HQ, Khartoum 22 Civil-work committee: Access Road construction 16 Jan 2017 Ministry of Finance, contract issues. WEP office, Khartoum SETCO, MWRE, WEP 23 Meeting with SETCO General Manager to grant the 24 Jan 2017 SETCO, WEP hosting of Sudan wind atlas in SETCO’s GIS system SETCO HQ, Khartoum 24 Meeting with Energy Research centre, University of 2 Feb 2017 WEP, R-Centre UofK Khartoum, turnover weather station Equipment to the UofK, Univ. Khartoum 25 Signing the Agreement for hosting Sudan wind Atlas in 29 March 2017 MWRE-RE the SITCO’s GIS system SETCO HQ, Khartoum directorate, SETCO, WEP 26 submitting a number of (12) Renewable Energy 20 April 2017 MWRE-RE, WEP references to MWRE-RE general directorate MWRE-RE directorate 27 Financing Dongola wind farm pilot project, a (3 meetings) MWRE, ERA, Ministry committee work composed of 3 meetings. A report 22 March 2017 of finance, Ministry of was handled to MWRE undersecretary on 15th of May 9 April 2017 International 2017 11 May 2017 cooperation, Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources, 28 Approval of the National Consultant report “Sudan IPP 20 July 2017 MWRE, SETCO, ERA, Act” WEP office, Khartoum WEP 29 Meeting with Energy Research centre, Omdurman 20 Aug 2017 WEP, RE-Centre Ahlya University, turnover weather station Equipment Ahlya Univ. Ahlya university to the Univ. Omdurman

30 Meeting with SETCO’s GIS system Engineer to update 17 Sept 2017 WEP, SETCO the data compilation of wind atlas WEP office, Khartoum 31 Submitting the measurement instrument for a number 21 Sept 2017 MWRE-RE, WEP of (6) met. Masts after performing the calibration MWRE- RE general process to MWRE-RE general directorate directorate office, Khartoum

Table 10: Performance of the project management unit (Coordination meetings with stakeholders) Nº Description Date/Place Other Parties 1 Meeting with the National Consultant candidates for 5 Sept 2015 developing the MSB study WEP office, Khartoum 2 Skype team conference and desk review of PPA 1 Feb 2016 National document with the International Consultant WEP office, Khartoum Consultant, ERA 3 Review the status of the project website 23 Feb 2017 “www.wepsd.org” and renew the service contract to WEP office, Khartoum perform necessary updates. 4 Signing the contract with National Consultant to develop 1st May 2017 Sudan IPP Act WEP office, Khartoum

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Table 11: Training workshops # Workshop Location Period and Participants duration 1 Updating Grid Emission Factor Kampala- 2 days 3 persons (2 males, 1 Uganda 19-20 Aug female) 2015 (MWRE, WEP) 2 Power Purchase Agreement South Africa 2 days 4 persons (males) 24-25 Aug (ERA, MWRE, WEP, 2015 STPG) 3 Grid Integration of RE Power Generation Jordan-Amman 2 days 2persons(males) Systems 2-3 Sep 2015 (SETCO, WEP) 4 NAMA Academy Fall 2015 Copenhagen 6 days 1 persons(male) 4-9 Oct 2015 (NPM/WEP) 5 WAsP Software training program Khartoum 7 days 11 persons (8 males 13-19 Dec and 3 females) (MWRE, 2015 Sudan Univ., Alneelin Univ., NERC, Khartoum Univ., Solarman CO, WEP) 6 Wind farms and contracts management Dubai 5 days 2persons (male and 27-31 Dec female) (MWRE, 2015 GPC/MWRE) 7 renewable Energy technology Egypt 2 weeks 1 person (male) (WEP) 6-17 March 2016 8 Finance for Non -Financial Managers Khartoum- 3 days 4 persons (3 males and Sudan 12-14 April 1 female) 2016 (ERA, MWRE, WEP, SETCO) 9 Power Purchase PPA Khartoum- 3 days 19 persons (12 males Sudan 15-17 May and 7 females) 2016 (STPG, ERA, MWRE, National Assembly, MoF, SETCO, SEDC) 10 Financing Power Projects Nairobi –Kenya 3 days 5 persons (4 males and 11-13 July 1 female) 2016 (ERA, MWRE, SETCO, WEP) 11 wind turbine technology India 3 weeks 1 person (male) 17 Aug – 9 Sept 2016 12 Policy maker tour to kingdom of Morocco Morocco 5 days 4 persons (2 males and 17-21 October 2 females) (National 2016 Assembly (GOS) and WEP) 13 Ammonit wind measurement equipment Berlin, 3 days 1 person (male) Germany Nov 2016 (WEP) 14 weather station erection and operation NERC HQ 1 day 3 persons (2 males and training 1 female)

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

SOBA, Khartoum 15 Formulating proposals for low carbon Enschede- 12 days 1 person (male) climate resilient development: Designing Netherlands 12-23 June (WEP) Green Climate Fund (GCF) Projects 2017 16 Designing maps with ArcGIS Beirut, 11 days 3 persons (males) Lebanon 25 Sept 2017 (SETCO)

4.8 Work planning

The logic of the projects work plan makes it relevant to the Sudan situation where the quest has been to support the removal of barriers to the adoption of utility-scale wind energy tied to the national grid in Sudan. Wind energy has been identified as a priority mitigation technology by the Government of Sudan, and, although it is a mature technology globally, it has not yet been adopted in Sudan. A systems approach has been adopted to integrate energy policy analysis within the broader developmental objectives of Sudan. This will result in strengthened capacity of Sudan to establish regulatory frameworks for encouraging private investments in grid-connected wind energy.

As shown in the results evaluation table, progress has been made towards the realisation of the project objectives and outcomes at the mid-term stage apart from the support to the implementation of the first wind farm in Sudan, Dongola that aligns the wind farm with international best practices which hasn’t materialised yet. Analyses of the status of support to policy and regulatory development, particularly to encourage private sector participation; strengthening the support for wind technology in the country and support an adaptive learning and replication plan from the project has been conducted and the results of these are well advanced and now being used for further project implementation.

Support to the implementation of the first wind farm in Sudan, Dongola, that aligns the wind farm with international best practices has been flagged as risk at this mid-term point even from a work planning point of view. Its resolution has been flagged in the recommendations as it will also create a case study for replication in later wind farms which will be good for Sudan’s wind energy sector and renewable energy sector much more broadly once the Dongola wind farm is implemented.

On the ground, following the policy and regulatory development, particularly to encourage private sector participation; strengthening the support for wind technology in the Sudan and supporting adaptive learning a very good platform and base has been laid to take the wind energy sector forward in Sudan. The combo of interventions which the work plan has provided and offered has been much appreciated by many while the 1 st wind farm in Dongola has constantly been flagged as a work plan risk. Finally, the activities in the work plan are set up in a very practical and implementable way having assumed all the funding would be available or easily accessed to support the project mainly for outcome 1: as the baseline wind farms currently face technological barriers, which have not been taken into consideration in their risk matrix during the design phase of the project. The work plans deliverables are well organised and listed in an interrelated way which is progressive from one activity to the other. Overall, the work plan shows that the activities and targets set for this stage of the PUSPG-WE project have been mostly met apart from one major one, indicating successful implementation of the project thus far.

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4.9 Financial Management

The financial management of this project is controlled at local level. All necessary procedures appear to be in place. Technical administration of the components is undertaken by the expert responsible in collaboration with the appropriate Project Manager. The project disbursed $ 1,102,586 which is equivalent to 29.12% of its approved grant fund of US$ 3,786,364 with budget utilisation rate of 39.86% of the mid- term budget allocation which is $ 2,766,140. The latest due Financial Statements were submitted by the project within the stipulated time. Also, due IFR of the 2017 second quarter were submitted on time and reviewed by UNDP.

Table 12: Financial Progress: April, 2015 – August, 2017Project budget utilisation against the plan

GEF Budget GEF % GEF Budget GEF % GEF Received & GOS Received & Amounts Disbursement Amounts 3ys Disbursement- TOTAL Disbursement Disbursement –Total mid term Funds Received or Allocated: - Opening Balance Amounts 3,786,364 1,102,586 29.12% 2,766,140 39.86% Received (1,893,182) (58%) Foreign 1,524.50 Exchange Gain Total Cash 3,786,364 1,171,377 Available Less payments by Component: Component 1 2,391,864 171,880.48 7.19% 1,815,000 9.47% Component 2 501,660 221,830.07 44.22% 379,800 58.41% Component 3 500,000 98,088.73 19.62% 328,000 29.91% Component 4 210,000 57,920.03 27.58% 127,000 45.61% Project 182,840 100,083.78 54.74% 116,340 86.03% management Loans or 83,055.84 advances Foreign 84,357.05 Exchange (Loss) VAT paid on 486.82 invoices 817,702 817,702.80 Total Payments Closing Cash & 353,675 353,675.14 Bank Balance

a) The project’s financial management system is well established, especially after the appointment of the finance assistant at the UNDP office to support the project’s finance section in dealing with the budget coding as per the project’s main outcomes. The addition of the finance office at the UNDP office had positively affected the performance of the project’s management unit.

b) The project’s outcome 1 budget which amounts to US$ 2,391,864 is significantly high (more than 63 %) compared to the total grant amount. Looking carefully into the breakdown of outcome 1 budget reveals that there is a need for budget reallocation to meet other important project expenditures for the whole project life. In outcome’s 1 budget the two main items are a) consultancy work (US$ 1,331,000) and b) Equipment (US$ 800,000). It is clear that this component is heavily loaded with

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

the proposed consultancy work. This could be revised as per the negotiation outcome with UNDP and the MWRE.

c) The total disbursement for outcome 2 (58%) is even higher than what is projected for the project’s midterm disbursement. This same analysis holds for outcome 4, where the total disbursement amounts to 45 % which is reasonable at the midterm expenditure. d) This same challenge faces the budget allocation of outcome 3. A significant portion of the budget of outcome3 was allocated for consultancy services (US$ 270,000) which amounts to more than 54 % of the proposed budget for this outcome. Again, this is an indication that the initial project budget’s distribution amongst project outcomes during the design phase of the project was not realistic and this is the right time for budget relocation to avail more funding for urgent activities that support the achievement of the project’s development objectives in the long run.

e) Looking very carefully into the main budget lines of the project’s management budget, which are equipment, communication, office supplies, and miscellaneous, we see that these items were already purchased and the rest of the budget (14%) should be enough to cover any incidental request for these items during the second half of the project’s lifetime.

f) A training course about “Financing Power Projects” was attended by five (5) persons in Kenya. Also, the project conducted a training course for four (4) persons in Khartoum about “Finance for Non- Financial Managers”.

Table 13: Procurement Budget Status (2015 – 2017) # Activities Budget Completed Outstanding %

1 Goods 41,277.55 41,277.55 2 Works

3 Consultancy 117,609.97 117,609.97 4 Training Plan 101,712.24 101,712.24 Overall 260,599.76 260,599.76

Table 14: Procurement Status (2015 – 2017) Budget Description of cost item Completed Outstanding In progress (%) Note a. International technical consultants to support grid TOR for IC for integration, wind farm implementation, NAMA NAMA finance finance, and knowledge transfer b. Local consultants to support the international Local consultant consultants on grid integration, wind farm for NAMA finance, implementation, NAMA finance and to begin building consultant for local capacity in these areas MSB, ESIA studies

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

c. Long-term consultants and project staff done

d. Land travel to the Dongola project site, as per field trips accommodation at the project site, international travel to and from Khartoum and accommodation in Khartoum for international consultants. e. Equipment to support monitoring and integration of base line not the wind farm into the Sudan power grid implemented f. Institutional and policy experts with experience in Recruitment of renewable energy frameworks – specifically, feed-in international tariffs and regulations, technical experts with consultants for experience in wind energy yield forecasting and IPP, Grid code development of grid codes for wind and FiT. g. Local consultants to support the international Local consultants consultants on feed-in tariffs and regulations, wind for IPP and Grid energy yield forecasting and development of grid code codes for wind h. Long-term consultants and project staff done i. International travel for consultants to and from PPA IC travel Khartoum, accommodation in Khartoum, minimal travel within Sudan. j. Workshops and meetings, mainly with Government not done officials around the formulation of policies and creation of a “one-stop-shop” for wind investors k. Workshops and meetings, mainly with Government not done officials around the formulation of policies and creation of a “one-stop-shop” for wind investors l. Institutional and policy experts with experience in Recruitment of renewable energy frameworks – specifically, feed-in international tariffs and regulations, technical experts with consultants for experience in wind energy yield forecasting and IPP, Grid code development of grid codes for wind and FiT. m. Local consultants to support the international Local consultants consultants on feed-in tariffs and regulations, wind for IPP and Grid energy yield forecasting and development of grid code codes for wind n. Long-term consultants and project staff done o. International experts in wind mapping, wind site recruitment surveying and GIS systems to develop wind atlas for process of IC Sudan; international experts to support curricula development p. Local consultants to support wind mapping, wind site SETCO surveying, bird migration and GIS systems to develop Agreement for GIS wind atlas for Sudan; local academics to participate hosting in curricula development q. Long-term consultants and project staff done r. Workshops and meetings in Khartoum and at other UKCC contract Sudanese universities to support curricula development; workshops to consult on geomorphology, geology and land ownership s. International travel to and from Khartoum, travel International within Sudan to site locations and workshops WAsP training t. International experts in wind mapping, wind site surveying and GIS systems to develop wind atlas for WAsP training

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Sudan; international experts to support curricula development u. Local consultants to support wind mapping, wind site surveying, bird migration and GIS systems to develop wind atlas for Sudan; local academics to participate in curricula development v. International travel to and from Khartoum, travel International within Sudan to site locations and workshops WAsP training w. Audit costs 2016 Audit x. International and regional experts to support documentation of lessons-learned from Dongola wind farm and regional workshops y. Local consultants to support documentation of website lessons-learned from Dongola wind farm and consultancy regional workshops service z. Long-term consultants and project staff done aa. Regional workshops for transferring knowledge and Morocco tour capacity to Sudan from relevant regional countries (e.g. Egypt, Morocco, Kenya); and to share and disseminate lessons-learned from Dongola ab. Travel for international consultants to and from not done Khartoum; travel for workshops and regional interaction ac. International and regional experts to support not done documentation of lessons-learned from Dongola wind farm and regional workshops ad. Local consultants to support documentation of website lessons-learned from Dongola wind farm and consultancy regional workshops service ae. Travel for international consultants to and from not done Khartoum; travel for workshops and regional interaction af. Regional workshops for transferring knowledge and Morocco tour capacity to Sudan from relevant regional countries (e.g. Egypt, Morocco, Kenya); and to share and disseminate lessons-learned from Dongola ag. Long-term consultants and project staff done ah. Travel for project management staff travel to site(s) as per table above ai. Computers, software, IT services and web hosting done

4.10 Project level reporting, monitoring and evaluation systems

Reporting has generally been working satisfactorily well, apart from the timing of recruitment finalisation process for external project support experts which if done late, delays the spending of the next tranche of funds linked to particular aspects of the project for that area of expertise as this can only be done upon expert contracting approval by UNDP. To avert this timing constraint, the project partner must be encouraged to finalise the appointment of external project support experts early, say a working deadline of a month earlier than experts start date so that there is enough time for report reviewing which enables funds utilisation and future tranche disbursement. Otherwise project activities run delayed and which impacts negatively on expenditure and disbursements for the project.

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

Important lessons are being generated through the monitoring and evaluation products of project implementation which provides huge scope for the replication and scaling up of the project both to other parts of the country as well as to other regions of the world. The project-level monitoring and evaluation systems being used clearly capture details that include Project Outcomes, Outputs, Baselines Indicators and Targets, Planned Activities, Progress Against Planned Activities (Achievements), Expenditures and budget balance, which makes it easy to read and follow. The system also has additional information about major challenges that ranges from finalise contracting processes of external project experts to technical and coordination issues. From a project-level monitoring and evaluation perspective, the system is working satisfactorily well.

4.11. Sustainability

4.11.1 Financial risks to sustainability

Based on the current budget of this project, the major financial risk to sustaining what has been set up is medium with a very high impact should it happen. With the construction of the wind farm, the project won’t be able to generate electricity that’s fed into the grid and sold to generate income. The aim of attracting private investment into the sector might negatively suffer from a bad perception if the wind farm isn’t constructed. As a result, financial and economic resources will likely not be available from the private sector at the current scale and level once the GEF assistance ends, unless the grid connected wind farm is constructed which is a precondition for the market to respond positively. Assuming the government picks up the financial tab of this project going forward, it won’t be to at a very rapid pace at the scale of GEF. However, there are a lot of opportunities to access small chunks of financial and economic resources which when lumped together become significant like the Green Climate Fund (GCF). If connected well with other on-going projects being funded by other donors in the same project sites or similar sector of renewable energy, then the financial muscle might relatively stay the same if not increase.

Also, the huge financial burden of this project has been the high upfront start-up costs related to the baseline, which when the project ends will be very low as the private sector will pick up all these costs if it’s coming in as Independent Power Producers (IPPs). As no high upfront start-up costs will be required from the state, but actually maintenance costs which are relatively cheaper and lower when compared to start-up costs will all be private sector borne. The beneficiaries will transition from being energy poor and energy access deprived because they will see the benefits of this project on their livelihoods by having clean energy/electricity. The capacity that been developed will stay there and utilised beyond the projects life’s span. This needs to be thought about very clearly to retain the skills in the sector by growing it so that it creates employment opportunities to absorb the skilled personnel and further develop them. So the likelihood of financial and economic resources not being available at all once the GEF assistance ends (considering potential resources can be from multiple sources, such as the public and private sectors, income generating activities, and other funding that will be adequate financial resources for sustaining project’s outcomes ) is medium with a very high impact should it happen. Resources will be there and it is merely a question of their scale.

4.11.2 Socio-economic risks to sustainability

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

The project has very minimal social or political risks that may jeopardize sustainability of project outcomes that can be justified at present. The political risk was very high before the embargo was lifted and now that it’s been lifted, this is now a relatively low risk. At present evidence is suggesting very high levels of stakeholder ownership (including ownership by government including all affected departments’ and other key stakeholders). Based on present evidence, this will be sufficient to allow for the project outcomes/benefits to be sustained. At present all the various key stakeholders see that it is in their own interests that the project benefits continue to flow and that all the outcomes are achieved even if it means at a varied scale so that demonstration is done. There is sufficient public / stakeholder awareness in support of the long-term objectives of the project. However, this awareness needs to be continually raised so that it translates into tangible outcomes delivery until the project ends, so that the level of outcomes delivered is increased. The lessons learned are being well documented by the Project Team on a continual basis and shared/transferred to appropriate parties who could learn from the project and potentially replicate and/or scale it in the future. However, there is scope to strengthen this by doing the communications and knowledge management through the use of innovative streams like video footages and DVDs in local languages around the benefits of renewable energy (clean energy) in Sudan. People who intend to scale up the projects activities long after it’s finished can easily pick up the video footages and DVD to recap and bring themselves up to speed with the vision and lessons learnt from the project even when it ends. The access road construction and the NAMA development processes are well documented on video already and showcasing this project as one aspect of a broader renewable energy package will add weight and diversification credibility internationally if international financing is to be solicited.

4.11.3 Institutional framework and governance risks to sustainability

At present the current legal frameworks, policies, governance structures and processes pose very minimal risks that may jeopardize sustenance of the project benefits. The required systems that have been set up like the mechanisms for accountability, transparency, and technical knowledge transfer are well in place and functioning well. The barriers to the role of the private sector in the renewable energy sector have been well identified and addressed at a policy level. Wind energy is probably the strongest because of this project and the other renewable energy sub-sectors like solar can adjust them appropriately to suit their needs – so the basis is there and now well set/established. However, that said, the aspects of accountability, transparency, and technical knowledge transfers are all maintained. To ensure sustainability, however, there is a need to continue engaging with institutions of higher education and learning (e.g. Universities’ and technical colleges) plus government structures like the zonal and regional levels to ensure the already generated political will doesn’t yearn.

4.11.4 Environmental risks to sustainability

The environmental risks that may jeopardize sustenance of project outcomes are very minimal. The project is in predominantly energy scarce/strained regions i.e. energy poverty regions and in part is securing technologies for grid connected electricity, which guarantees them yields of cleaner energy. The design of the wind technology is already going to factor in low environmental conditions of Sudan which mitigates any technological environmental risks to sustainability as custom made technology is going to be used.

5 Recommendations and conclusions

5.1 Conclusions

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The mid-term review team concludes that PUSPG-WEP is on target to achieve most of the results that are intended by the project for both the medium-long-term. The grid-connected power generation from wind farm process in Sudan has begun to be established which is the outcome prone to a higher risk than the rest of the outcomes due to 100 MW baseline financing whose reasons and mitigation measures have already been explained under outcome 1. However, this baseline risk has been noted with measures to mitigate the risk being suggested through four logical options that can be undertaken as part of adaptive management which will render the overall project a success at its end. This project thus far has led to strengthened institutions to progressively deliver universal access to basic services that are aligned with latest UNDP Strategic Plan in Sudan and aligns to the next generation Poverty Reduction Strategy Plan (PRSP) that Sudan is finalising.

In addition, early signs suggest that in the short – medium term the project has seen improved progress on the wind farm construction at the Dongola site. Experience sharing and exposure visits on successful power generation from wind farm practices has created good insights for good international standards and practice benchmarking for those involved on the project. Very strong local partnerships between the various stakeholders have been established and adequate progress has been made towards getting local Sudanese stakeholders to own the project. MWRE has even gone to the extent of creating a general directorate for this project’s work and the renewable energy sector much more broadly. The training of personnel though welcomed as part of the project isn’t doing justice to the current ripe atmosphere of demand for renewable energy sources that Sudan is showing. This makes the need to have a grid feeding demonstration wind turbine of paramount importance as one can’t guarantee that trainees from this project will stay on without any wind farm to work on and learn from. The failure of not having any wind energy system feeding into the grid isn’t giving a positive reflection on the intent even though the policy and legislative foundation has been laid down – having a wind turbine feeding into the grid irrespective of Mega Watt scale will send positive signals to the market and the renewables sector in Sudan which will trigger more investment interest as investors (domestic and abroad) would have seen Sudan’s first wind farm feeding into the grid.

Overall, a cross-sectoral and forward-looking approach that satisfactorily considers the integrated and interrelated impacts such as budget reprioritisation is evident. Without this cross-sectoral approach, strategic cost-effective alternatives, such as project budget reallocation would not necessarily have been considered. The project is premised on the analysis and integration of climate change mitigation from the perspective of the sustainable livelihoods approach (SLA) where growth and development are inclusive and sustainable, incorporating productive capacities that create employment and livelihoods for the poor and excluded. Livelihoods comprise the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means of living. Livelihoods are sustainable when investment in green energy and access by needy communities to sustainable energy improved is done while maintaining or enhancing capabilities and assets now and in the future. Five core asset categories are typically identified in the SLA: Human, social, physical, natural and financial. The approach helps improve understanding of the dynamic nature of livelihood and what influences them.

It builds on the private sector’s strengths and opportunities to support existing livelihood strategies aided when government and stakeholders have evidence-based policies, strategic plans and mechanisms to ensure an enabling environment for improved basic services and people in Sudan, with special emphasis on populations in need, have access to equitable and sustainable quality basic services. It examines the influence of policies and institutions on livelihood options when it comes to energy poverty and highlights the need for policies that address the priorities of the poor whilst integrating energy policy analysis within the broader developmental objectives of Sudan. It encourages public-private partnerships and aims for

Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind Energy Project in Sudan 2017

sustainability i.e. establish regulatory frameworks for encouraging private investments in grid-connected wind energy in this project’s case. From our perspective, all these are important elements of effective mitigation to climate change where wind energy has been identified as a priority mitigation technology by the Government of Sudan. Change is a constant in the lives of energy poor people. For most developing countries like Sudan, climate change adds another layer of complexity to existing development challenges, such as high levels of poverty and inequality, rapid population growth, underdeveloped markets, poor infrastructure and service provision, and weak governance systems. As such development interventions like this in Sudan will need to help the Sudanese people and communities to adapt to the interaction of these new and old technological pressures. Since change is a constant, sustainable interventions can only be achieved if people can adapt them in the future to a changing context (OECD, 2008), which is what this project is doing.

5.2 Recommendations

The MTR of PUSPG-WEP has identified a number of issues that are presented below as recommendations per outcome for use in the project design going forward and implementation of similar projects in future.

Outcome 1 : Grid-connected power generation from wind farm introduced i. The project is positively progressing towards achieving its development objectives. Under this component, the project site isn’t preserved, protected or safe guarded from any encroachment threats from urban development and agricultural activities as it currently isn’t enclosed. The installation of 100 MW capacity in Dongola was not achieved due to many reasons which were a big risk yet out of the control of the project team i.e. beyond the scope of this project’s control due to the recently lifted embargo 21 that was imposed on Sudan and the snowball effects from the cessation of South Sudan from Sudan which impacted on Sudan national budget revenue from the formerly oil-rich regions lost when the South gained independence from Sudan. The biggest risk that has affected the project is how these get financed due to a +19-years embargo (which has recently been lifted ) at scale due to high financing risks that made capital premiums too costly in relation to development priorities becoming a barrier to the necessary mainstreaming of wind energy in practice. For instance, the project activities were and are still viewed as a top priority that’s imbedded as part of the day to day electricity diversification and development priority issues going forward by Sudan’s central government. As such the installing of four (4) wind farms by the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE) was also not realised due to the fact the base line project was not implemented because there have been no budget available for it at present. Central government has shown a lot of commitment and desire to try and fund the baseline as evidenced by the attempts and options tried which are well documented in this report. However, large financing capacity from central government has been severely limited and significantly constrained at present.

At an institutional level, there appears to be very high levels of awareness among policy-makers and their staff about the benefits of renewable energy. The acceptance of new technologies takes time as people get acquainted and appreciate the performance of new technologies overtime. The review team notes that as a result of the embargo, ongoing focus has to ensure that the demonstration of grid-connected power generation from wind farm must be introduced as a risk aversion mechanism to the project’s failure to achieve its intended objectives even if it’s at a much smaller scale than originally planned as the context in which this project was planned and the current context after close to three full years of implementation are vastly different.

21 Defined by as https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/embargo 1 : an order of a government prohibiting the departure of commercial ships from its ports. 2: a legal prohibition on commerce. a trade embargo.

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Grid-connected power generation from wind energy is also key to raise awareness, especially of communities, leaders, policy-makers and local community development practitioners. Focus can also be put on other small-scale wind energy easier to finance options which that can feed the grid ( centralised or decentralised ) with potential to upscale in phases as and when more funds become available. This is important since grid connection is being used as a catalyst to demonstrate Sudan’s commitment in renewable energy and instilling wind energy confidence in the private sector of what new government policy is whilst demonstrating how these relate to Sudan’s development priorities to achieve effective mainstreaming of mitigation efforts through the implementation of new technologies being introduced through the project. Although the levels of awareness have significantly improved amongst stakeholder involved with this project since its implementation began, the review team is of the opinion that PUSPG- WEP should still provide opportunities for continued awareness raising in relation to grid-connected power generation from renewables to keep mainstreaming the overall renewable energy development agenda of local communities and the country.

Recommendation : The project site needs to be preserved, protected or safe guarded from any encroachment from urban development and agricultural activities as it currently isn’t enclosed. Development doesn’t need to first encroach into the buffer zone/region of the site before a decision to protect it is made. Once people or activities tart to happen within the sites boundaries, it’ll be difficult if not near impossible to move people off and efforts between all the relevant stakeholders to avoid this from happening is of paramount importance.

The failure to install a 100 MW grid-connected power generation capacity in Dongola can’t be blamed on the project but the changing country context which transitioned and affected central government’s financial ability. All things being equal it would have been achieved in full or partially at this stage, yet it remains a long-term possibility. However, to avoid the risk of weaning demand for wind energy (and renewables in general) after so much capacity, hype and awareness raising had been successfully done: Short to medium term risk aversion considerations must be done and a decision on which scope option to follow/take be done by December 2017 as the project will only be left with about 24 months (Jan 2018 – Dec 2019) before it ends. As a form of an urgent risk aversion mechanism whilst awaiting medium to long term positive market behaviours from the embargo upliftment, the review team suggests four (4) short to medium term time bound interventions for GEF and UNDPs in principle consideration (listed below ) that will play an important role which demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind. This must be done with the intention to put in place a wind energy NAMA that can sought funding at a much bigger scale through the NAMA funding windows as a spin off from this project as Sudan’s Internal Nationally Determined Contributions INDC have mitigation as one of the aspects with wind energy forming part of that. Equally so the Green Climate Fund (GCF) can also be approached to fund a scaling up project of the proof of concept from this GEF supported project to make the most of the current gains made through the GEF support in order to pave the way for further market development and scaled wind energy uptake in the potential areas.

The suggested four (4) short to medium term time bound interventions stem from page 13 of the ProDoc motivation which states that “ the baseline project provides a unique opportunity to start addressing these barriers with a view to favouring private-sector investment in the market development of wind energy in the medium-to-long term. Some of these barriers, namely those related to the transfer of nationally-appropriate wind energy technologies, will be addressed directly in conjunction with the baseline project. In order to generate market acceptance at a time when wind technology does not exist in Sudan, it is crucial to first demonstrate the technological viability of wind energy in the local context. Any technological failure at the early stages in wind energy development will only undermine the acceptance of the technology in Sudan, resulting in an unwanted increase in yet more market barriers. Using the favourable conditions generated by the imminent Dongola wind farm to promote wind energy, other – broader – barriers will be addressed by the UNDP-implemented, GEF-financed project in order to pave the way for the market development of the Red Sea wind farm and beyond ”.

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Option 1: (if no decision on the baseline funding by end of November 2017, then please trigger option 2 ) o Pursue central government baseline project funding – Sudan’s central government has reiterated its commitment to this project and now intends to trigger funding a 5MW baseline project to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind energy. This option has been pursued to three (3 years on 31 December 2017) and has stalled in previous attempts due to the reasons already mentioned earlier. It’s of paramount importance with government reiterating its commitment during this MTR that if no firm funding availability has been confirmed from central government by the end of November 2017 that option 2 is triggered. Bureaucratic systems take time and the project is almost 3 years into implementation with only 2 years left and the timing of triggering a decision has now become very critical if outcome 1 demonstration ambition is to be achieved.

Option 2: (if no decision on the baseline funding by Mid Dec 2017, then please trigger option 3 below ) o Scope change as project reallocates a proportion of its outcome 1 budget – consideration can be given to reallocating a proportion of the projects outcome 1 budget line items to fund a 1MW grid- connected power generation from wind demonstration plant. This will assist with proving the concept and also the disbursements of the funds as the bulk of the budget is allocated towards outcome 1 and can’t be disbursed because the baseline hasn’t been implemented as originally planned from central government funds and resulting in the project not being able to spend. Quotations and company offers received by MWRE early in 2017 alongside desktop internet research indicates that a 1MW costing in the range of USD$1.2 million to USD$2.4million.

Option 3: (if no decision on the baseline funding by end of Dec 2017, then please trigger option 4 below ) o Scope change to small scale wind energy for water pumping – Standalone of hybrid small scale wind turbines for water pumping as an opportunity to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind energy where grid refers to “power "grid," they're referring to the transmission system for electricity” (UCSUSA, 2015). Sudan has a history of wind energy (wind mills) being used to pump water for irrigation and other purposes stretching back from the 1980s. Given the baseline funding constraints, this is another option which can be used to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind for an electric grid, though decentralised in this instance. The GEF is already funding another demonstration project in the wind energy potential areas that’s using solar energy for water pumping. Using wind could be another way of proving the concept and demonstrating how wind energy is equally good as a form of energy in these potential areas.This for example, is a community-based approach that provides opportunities for more awareness raising for wind energy as one type of a renewable energy source in order to keep mainstreaming low capital and low risk options in wind energy and renewable energy overall in Sudan. Increased awareness beyond the current levels will make it possible for the project to increase its coverage of promoting renewable energy adoption at the community level in Sudan. In the long term when the financial market confidence levels increase, large scale 100 MW capacity wind farms like Dongola will become a lot easier to finance and smaller scale interventions will serve Sudan well by practically demonstrating its appetite and commitment towards renewables 22 .

Option 4: (if no decision on the baseline funding by end of Jan 2018, high risk & triggers no further options ) o Scope change to small scale wind energy for demonstration at Universities – standalone of hybrid small scale wind turbines for powering university campuses or university water pumping as an opportunity to demonstrate grid-connected power generation from wind energy where grid refers to “power "grid," they're referring to the transmission system for electricity” (UCSUSA, 2015) 23 .

Outcome 2 : Policy and institutional regulatory framework adopted

22 A 25kW wind turbine produces enough energy to power a small neighbourhood. These devices are also intended for agricultural and light industrial applications. It has also been used for years in remote village applications, where diesel power systems supply electricity for a small grid. 23 A 100kW wind turbine produces enough energy to power 15+ homes. These are not residential turbines but are community-sized wind turbine that produce the right amount of power for school and university campuses, residential developments, farms, municipalities, and a variety of businesses ranging from injection moulding factories to extrusion houses. They can also be used in small wind farms for direct grid hookup.

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This is one outcome which has been highly appreciated and seen as the key to barrier removal by all the stakeholders. The project’s role in enabling a Feed-in-Tarrif (FiT) was greatly commended and appreciated as ground breaking. The policy reforms and harmonisation of legislation to enable a private sector driven wind energy market was also highly lauded by stakeholders and highlighted multiple times as something which wouldn’t have been achieved if it wasn’t for this project. Evidence on progress thus far shows that: o The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies and reports were accomplished. o The Feed-in-Tarrif (FiT) policy document and NAMA project document and reports were produced. o The policies and legislation for renewable energy are effectively adopted and enforced.

Overall, it is safe to conclude that at this MTR stage the policy, legislative and institutional regulatory framework has been well adopted to a large extent with a few action points that are being finalised over the final duration of the project.

Outcome 3: The wind technology support and delivery system strengthened The wind technology support and delivery system has been strengthened with a lot of technical training and learnings being undertaken from similar projects and contexts elsewhere which is very good. Evidence on progress thus far shows that: o 65 engineers were trained in wind technology (49 males and 16 females). o Three (3) institutions have been supported in wind technology. o Wind maps and atlas version 1.0 was developed.

Recommendation: As a medium-to-long term technology support and delivery system strengthening, the involvement of most of the institutions of higher learning and higher education from the potential wind farm locations needs to be strengthened. This should aim to build localised skills, capacity and expertise now that’s this exists at a national level on aspects raised during the MTR like (1) wind energy planning; (2) wind assessment software; (3) Designing and assessing wind energy. Even if it’s at their own costs through Master’s and Doctoral students as a start – it triggers the technology support and delivery system strengthening from a very early stage of local graduates as the project can’t simply rely on experts to come in from Khartoum for certain simple aspects which local well capacitated technicians can do. More of these localised institutions need to start becoming active players in the renewable energy sector and be part of the learnings of this process to build local capacity and capability within this sphere of expertise at a localised level. Hybrid-ing wind energy with solar on solar powered agricultural farms for water pumping to be financed by farm owners is another avenue which is explored will cooperation from Institutions of higher education will add value to the notion of wind technology support and strengthen the delivery system. This is an area that will be required on an ongoing basis beyond the construction phase of the Dongola wind farm as it determines how the local pool of expertise is developed for a stronger Sudanese renewable energy sector.

Outcome 4: Adaptive learning and replication plan supported.

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Evidence on progress thus far shows that amongst others, one (1) study tour was undertaken to wind plants in Morocco (composition included 50% female and 50% male).In this component, the project also has another fifth outcome on project management were evidence on progress shows that: o The project management unit was established and is operational. o The project’s Board representing (PB) different stakeholders was established and is operational. o The project’s Technical Committee (PTC) representing different stakeholders was established and is operational.

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Table 15 : Project Outputs and Related Target(s) as of October 2017 Progress towards achievement of Project Outcomes Baseline Targets Progress Percentage End of Project Project Objective 24 Current Renewable energy put in place Sudan renewable energy RE law and policies was 20% master plan policy, law and regulation drafted To overcome barriers to the market development of utility-scale wind farms 0 MW Installing 100 MW capacity in Dongola 0 0 in Sudan.

0 MWH Generating of 300,917 MWh/year from 0 0 wind energy.

Outcome 1 25 1.1 - No MW produced from WP. 1.1 - 100 MW of grid-connected wind 0. 0 power installed at Dongola wind farm. Grid-connected power generation from wind farm introduced. 1.2 – 0 wind farms 1.2 – Installing 4 wind farms (The 0 0 Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE) has a plan to build four wind farms).

Outcome 2 2.1 - No, guideline existed 2.1 – Two guidelines for wind farm- 2.1 - EIA studies and 100 specific EIA considerations (e.g. reports were conducted migrating birds, noise) and other including migratory birds, Policy, institutional and hazards (e.g. civil and military noise, and civil and regulatory framework aviation) developed. military aviation adopted. 2.2 - No SOPs 2.2 – SOPs for wind power plant is 0 0 developed

2.3 No feed-in tariff policy 2.3 - feed-in tariff policy NAMA for 2.3 – Inception report of 20% existed wind power in Sudan developed FiT policy document and

24 Objective (Atlas output) monitored quarterly ERBM and annually in APR/PIR 25 All outcomes monitored annually in the APR/PIR. It is highly recommended not to have more than 4 outcomes. 60

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Baseline Targets Progress Percentage End of Project NAMA project document and reports. 2.4 - A bill has been drafted for 2.4 - policies and legislation for 2.4 - Project monitoring RE policies. renewable energy are effectively reports and final adopted and enforced evaluation. (end of the project)

Outcome 3 3.1 - Preliminary wind 3.1.A - 100 engineers trained in wind 1.1 (65) Engineers trained 65 % measurements have been technology (50 males & 50 females). The wind technology carried out as well as some support and delivery feasibility assessments based 3.1.B - 5 institutions supported in wind

system Strengthened . on those measurements. technology.

1.2 (3) Institutions were 60 % supported

3.2 - MWRE has developed a 3.2 – Wind atlas developed 3.2 - Wind maps and atlas 20% wind atlas based on extrapolation of world data with - Wind Atlas Version 1.0 high probability of inaccuracy. was developed. Outcome 4 4.1 - There is currently no plan 4.1 - Establishment of a quality 4.1 - Project reports. 0 for compiling and disseminating management certification process (e.g. Obtaining the quality Adaptive learning lessons-learned in wind power. ISO 9001) for Dongola wind farm. management certificate. and replication plan supported. 4.2 - Limited exchange of 4.2 – Ten Study tours undertaken to 4.2 - Project reports and 10% experiences with neighbouring wind plants in the neighboring annual work plans. countries with established wind countries (including 50% female and - Morocco tour farm like Egypt and Ethiopia. 50% male).

Source of data: ProDoc, Project Technical Reports, Interviews in the Field

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7.0 Annexes

Annex 1: Mid Term Review(MTR) Methodology Matrix

Term of Reference Method Expected Result Project Strategy

TOR 1: Assessment of the Literature review, key An assessment of the project strategy, the project design, problem conceptualization including Project Strategy informant interviews indicators of achievement of the output and the outcome.

TOR1.1: Review Project Literature review, key Review the problem addressed by the project and the underlying assumptions. Review the relevance design informant interviews, of the project strategy and assess whether it provides the most effective route towards Stakeholder analysis, expected/intended results. Review how the project addresses country priorities. Review country field visits ownership. Was the project concept in line with the national sector development priorities and plans of the country (or of participating countries in the case of multi-country projects)? Review decision- making processes: were perspectives of those who would be affected by project decisions, those who could affect the outcomes, and those who could contribute information or other resources to the process, taken into account during project design processes? Review the extent to which relevant gender issues were raised in the project design.

TOR 1.2: Results Framework / Literature review, key Critical analysis of the project’s logframe indicators and targets, assess how “SMART” the midterm Logframe informant interviews, and end-of-project targets are (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, Time-bound), and Stakeholder analysis, suggest specific amendments/revisions to the targets and indicators as necessary. field visits Determine if the project’s objectives and outcomes or components are clear, practical, and feasible within its time frame?

Examine if progress so far has led to, or could in the future catalyse beneficial development effects (i.e. income generation, gender equality and women’s empowerment, improved governance etc...) that should be included in the project results framework and monitored on an annual basis.

Examine to ensure broader development and gender aspects of the project are being monitored effectively. Develop and recommend SMART ‘development’ indicators, including sex- disaggregated indicators and indicators that capture development benefits.

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Progress Towards Results

TOR 2 : Progress Towards Literature review, key Review the logframe indicators against progress made towards the end-of-project targeting the Outcomes Analysis informant interviews, Progress Towards Results Matrix and following the Guidance For Conducting Midterm Reviews of (Outcomes 1 – 4) 26 Stakeholder analysis, UNDP-Supported, GEF-Financed Projects ; colour code progress in a “traffic light system” based on field visits the level of progress achieved; assign a rating on progress for each outcome; make recommendations from the areas marked as “Not on target to be achieved” (red).

In addition to the progress Literature review, key Compare and analyse the GEF Tracking Tool at the Baseline with the one completed right before towards outcomes analysis informant interviews the Midterm Review. Identify remaining barriers to achieving the project objective in the remainder of the project.

Reviewing the aspects of the project that have already been successful, identify ways in which the project can further expand these benefits.

Project Implementation and Adaptive Management

TOR 3.1 : Management Literature review and key Review overall effectiveness of project management as outlined in the Project Document. Have Arrangements. informant interviews changes been made and are they effective? Are responsibilities and reporting lines clear? Is decision-making transparent and undertaken in a timely manner? Recommend areas for improvement.

Review the quality of execution of the Executing Agency/Implementing Partner(s) and recommend areas for improvement.

Review the quality of support provided by the GEF Partner Agency (UNDP) and recommend areas for improvement. TOR 3.2: Work Planning Literature review and key Review any delays in project start-up and implementation, identify the causes and examine if they informant interviews have been resolved.

Are work-planning processes results-based? If not, suggest ways to re-orientate work planning to focus on results?

26 Outcomes: • Outcome 1: Power generation from wind energy resources increased. • Outcome 2: Policy and institutional regulatory framework adopted. • Outcome 3: The wind technology support and delivery system Strengthened • Outcome 4: Adaptive learning and replication plan supported

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Examine the use of the project’s results framework/logframe as a management tool and review any changes made to it since project start.

TOR 3.3: Finance and co- Literature review and key Consider the financial management of the project, with specific reference to the cost-effectiveness finance informant interviews of interventions.

Review the changes to fund allocations as a result of budget revisions and assess the appropriateness and relevance of such revisions. Does the project have the appropriate financial controls, including reporting and planning, that allow management to make informed decisions regarding the budget and allow for timely flow of funds?

Review the physical financial progress of the different project outcomes at MTR to see if there is need for any budget relocation.

Informed by the co-financing monitoring table to be filled out, provide commentary on co-financing: is co-financing being used strategically to help the objectives of the project? Is the Project Team meeting with all co-financing partners regularly in order to align financing priorities and annual work plans?

TOR 3.4 : Project-level Literature and Key Review the monitoring tools currently being used: Do they provide the necessary information? Do Monitoring and Evaluation informant and logframe they involve key partners? Are they aligned or mainstreamed with national systems? Do they use Systems analysis existing information? Are they efficient? Are they cost-effective? Are additional tools required? How could they be made more participatory and inclusive?

Examine the financial management of the project monitoring and evaluation budget. Are sufficient resources being allocated to monitoring and evaluation? Are these resources being allocated effectively?

TOR 3.5 : Stakeholder Key informant and Project management: Has the project developed and leveraged the necessary and appropriate Engagement literature review; field partnerships with direct and tangential stakeholders? visits Participation and country-driven processes: Do local and national government stakeholders support the objectives of the project? Do they continue to have an active role in project decision- making that supports efficient and effective project implementation? Participation and public awareness: To what extent has stakeholder involvement and public awareness contributed to the progress towards achievement of project objectives?

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TOR 3.6 : Reporting Key informant interviews, Assess how adaptive management changes have been reported by the project management and Review of relevant project shared with the Project Board. documents and work plans Assess how well the Project Team and partners undertake and fulfil GEF reporting requirements (i.e. how have they addressed poorly-rated PIRs, if applicable?).

Assess how lessons derived from the adaptive management process have been documented, shared with key partners and internalized by partners. TOR 3.7: Communications Review of project Review internal project communication with stakeholders: Is communication regular and effective? document, work plans; Are there key stakeholders left out of communication? Are there feedback mechanisms when key informant interviews communication is received? Does this communication with stakeholders contribute to their awareness of project outcomes and activities and investment in the sustainability of project results?

Review external project communication: Are proper means of communication established or being established to express the project progress and intended impact to the public (is there a web presence, for example? Or did the project implement appropriate outreach and public awareness campaigns?)

For reporting purposes, write one half-page paragraph that summarizes the project’s progress towards results in terms of contribution to sustainable development benefits, as well as global environmental benefits. Sustainability TOR 4: Sustainability Key informant interviews; Validate whether the risks identified in the Project Document, Annual Project Review/PIRs and the field visits ATLAS Risk Management Module are the most important and whether the risk ratings applied are appropriate and up to date. If not, explain why.

TOR 4.1: Financial risks to Project literature review; What is the likelihood of financial and economic resources not being available once the GEF sustainability key informant interviews assistance ends (consider potential resources can be from multiple sources, such as the public and private sectors, Independent Private Partnership, income generating activities, and other funding that will be adequate financial resources for sustaining project’s outcomes)?

TOR 4.2: Socio-economic Project literature review; Are there any social or political risks that may jeopardize sustainability of project outcomes? What risks to sustainability key informant interviews is the risk that the level of stakeholder ownership (including ownership by governments and other key stakeholders) will be insufficient to allow for the project outcomes/benefits to be sustained? Do the various key stakeholders see that it is in their interest that the project benefits continue to flow? Is there sufficient public / stakeholder awareness in support of the long term objectives of the project? Are lessons learned being documented by the Project Team on a continual basis and

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shared/ transferred to appropriate parties who could learn from the project and potentially replicate and/or scale it in the future?

TOR 4.3: Institutional Project literature review; Do the legal frameworks, policies, governance structures and processes pose risks that may Framework and Governance key informant interviews jeopardize sustenance of project benefits? While assessing this parameter, also consider if the risks to sustainability required systems/ mechanisms for accountability, transparency, and technical knowledge transfer are in place.

TOR 4.4: Environmental risks Project literature review; Are there any environmental risks that may jeopardize sustenance of project outcomes? to sustainability key informant interviews

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Annex 1: MTR TOR (excluding ToR annexes)

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Annex 2: MTR mission itinerary

15 – 20 October, 2017

Date/Time Agenda/Activity Venue

Sunday October 15, 2017 International Consultant arrives in Khartoum, Sudan Monday, October 16, 2017 9:00 – 10:00 AM Meeting with UNDP UNDP Offices 10:30 – 12:00 AM Meeting with project staff and RE-MWRE WEP office 12:00 – 13:00 lunch break WEP office 13:30 – 14:30 Meeting with Undersecretary, Ministry of Water Undersecretary’s Office Resources and Electricity Tuesday, October 17, 2017 9:00 – 10:00 Meeting with Ministry of Finance and National Economy Development office 10:30 – 11:30 Meeting with the National ERA Head of ERA Office 11:30 – 12:30 lunch break WEP office 12:30 - Leave to Dongola and spend the night there Wednesday October 18, 2017

8:00-9:00 Field visit to Dongola The Wind Energy site 10:00 – 11:00 Meeting with Minister of Urban Planning Minister’s Office 11:00 – 13:00 Meeting with Electricity Distribution Company Director’s Office 13:00 - Travel back to Khartoum from Dongola Thursday, October 19, 2017

9:00 – 10:00 Meeting with National Research Center for Energy Director’s Office 10:30 – 11:00 Meeting with Sudan GEF Focal Point MENRPD, GEF Focal Point Office 11:30 – 12:00 Meeting with HCENR Secretary General’s Office 12:00 – 13:00 lunch break WEP office 13:00 – 14:00 Debriefing to UNDP senior management UNDP Office 14:30 – 15:30 Meeting with Ministry of International Cooperation Director general office 16:00 – 18:00 Meeting with the Project Staff WEP office Friday, October 20, 2017 International Consultant departs Khartoum, Sudan

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Annex 3: List of People Interviewed and Institutions Consulted

UNDP Offices Nouralla Yasin Ahmed E-mail: [email protected] Hanan Mutwakil E-mail: [email protected] Min Htut Yin E-mail: [email protected] (it is a repetition) E-mail: [email protected] Intisar Ali Salih

WEP Office Hind Elamin Elnour, National Project Manager Email: [email protected] Ahmed Osman Alamin, National Project Engineer Email: [email protected] Khalid Mohammed Ahmed, National Project Engineer Email: [email protected] Amira Taha Abdulwahid, Project Finance Assistant Email: Mahgoub Eisa Khalil, MWRIE-RE Director General Email: [email protected] Yasir Abdalla Saeid, MWRIE-RE Director Email: [email protected]

Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity, Undersecretary’s Office Musa Omer Abuelgasim, Undersecretary

Ministry of Finance and National Economy, Development office Siddig Elobied Omer Haggam Gamela Omer Ahmed Moaiz Alawad Elshikh Safia Mahmoud Abdelgadir

National ERA, Head of ERA Office Abdlhafiz Fadlalla Babiker Hanan Mohamed Ahmed Ibrahim Amin

Minister of Urban Planning / Northern state Governor Yusuf Abdalla, Urban planning, General Manager Asaad Abdulhadi, Director General Rifaat Mohamed Alamin, Executive Office manager Ahmed Osman Suleiman, Northern State Deputy Governor

Electricity Distribution Company Haidar Hasan, Deputy Manager Ahmed Mansour, Engineer

National Research Center for Energy Sami Sharif, NERC General Manager E-mail: [email protected]

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Elfadil Brima Hamid, NERC-Director E-mail: [email protected]

Sudan GEF Focal Point / HCENR Hana Hamadalla, HCENR, Senior Director E-mail: [email protected]

Ministry of International Cooperation Nuha Mohamed Bashir, UNDP desk officer E-mail: [email protected] Ahmed Elsharief Mohamed, Deputy Director on Int. E-mail: [email protected] Organizations & Economic Blocs

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Annex 4: Example questions or interview guide used for data collection

The following set of outline questions was prepared based on the ToRs and used in part / whole in structured interviews as appropriate / relevant. The project includes four components: (1) the implementation of an initial wind farm; (2) support to policy and regulatory development, particularly to encourage private sector participation; (3) strengthening the support for wind technology in the country; and (4) support an adaptive learning and replication plan.

1. Project relevance and consistency with country priorities and the local community needs specifically: A. What is the name and role of the organisation/entity that you work for on this project? B. So far does this project support removal of barriers to the adoption of utility-scale wind energy tied to the national grid in Sudan and if so how? C. Has wind energy now been adopted in Sudan? D. How has a systems approach been used to integrate energy policy analysis within the broader developmental objectives of Sudan? E. Has the project established regulatory frameworks for encouraging private investments in grid- connected wind energy specifically and renewable energy in general – if yes, how has this been done. F. Has support for the implementation of the first wind farm in Sudan, Dongola, aligned the wind farm with international best practices? G. Has capacity building to establish the technical and regulatory capacities within Sudan to promote the development of wind farms been supported by this project? H. Has any of this project’s outcome started focusing on the development of standardised guidelines, feed-in tariffs and procedures for future wind farms? I. To support a ‘one-stop-shop’, has a training programme been enacted to put in place procedures and support for the staff? J. In relation to this project how has the strengthening of the wind technology support and delivery system been done? K. How has adaptive learning and replication plans been supported?

2. Ownership of the project: A. at the national and local levels; B. stakeholder participation at national and local levels; C. partnerships developed through the project.

3. Effectiveness: A. effectiveness in realising project immediate objectives, planned outcomes and outputs; B. the effects of the project on target groups and institutions; C. the extent to which these have contributed towards strengthening the institutional, organisational and technical capability of the government in achieving its long-term sustainable development objectives (including environmental management goals).

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4. Sustainability of: A. project achievements and impacts, including financial and institutional sustainability; B. an assessment of planned replication and exit strategies.

5. Management arrangements A. Management arrangements, including supervision, guidance, back-stopping, human resources; B. the Implementing Agency’s (UNDP) supervision and backstopping; C. the quality and timeliness of inputs, activities, responsiveness of project management to changes in the project environment and other M&E feedback.

6. Financial planning and sustainability, including the timely delivery and use of committed co- financing.

7. Efficiency or cost-effectiveness in the ways in which project outputs and outcomes were achieved.

8. Adaptive management, including: A. effective use of logframe, UNDP risk management system, annual Project Implementation Reviews, and other parts of the M&E system, tools and mechanisms as appropriate; B. evaluate whether project design allowed for flexibility in responding to changes in the project environment. C. review the recommendations of the MTR and assess how the MTR had helped adaptive management of the project.

9. Risk management, including the UNDP risk management system within ATLAS, which is also incorporated in the annual PIR. The evaluators are requested to determine how effectively the risk management system is being used as an adaptive management tool. Risks may be of a financial, socio-political, institutional, operational, environmental (or other) type.

10. Cross-cutting issues: • Governance: How has the project facilitated the participation of the local communities in adaptation, natural resource management and decision-making processes; • Promotion of gender equity: Has the project considered gender sensitivity or equal participation of man and women and boys and girls in decision-making processes; • Capacity development of participants and target beneficiaries; • Communications and use of technology. • Monitoring and reporting.

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Annex 5: List of documents reviewed and documents consulted 1. PIF 2. UNDP Initiation Plan 3. UNDP Project Document 4. UNDP Environmental and Social Screening results 5. Project Inception Report 6. All Project Implementation Reports (PIR’s) 7. Quarterly progress reports and work plans of the various implementation task teams 8. Audit reports 9. Finalized GEF focal area Tracking Tools at CEO endorsement and midterm Climate Change Mitigation 10. Oversight mission reports 11. All monitoring reports prepared by the project 12. Financial and Administration guidelines used by Project Team 13. Minutes of the Promoting Utility Scale Power Generation from Wind EnergyPSC meetings