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THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ROAD SAFETY AUDITS by Caryn Allyson Gunter Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering, University of New Brunswick, 2005 A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering in the Graduate Academic Unit of Civil Engineering Supervisor: Eric Hildebrand, P.Eng., PhD, Civil Engineering Examining Board: Kerry MacQuarrie, P.Eng., PhD, Canadian Rivers Institute, Civil Engineering, Chair James S. Christie, P.Eng., PhD, Civil Engineering Ming Zhong, P.Eng., PhD, Civil Engineering Dirk Jaeger, PhD, Forestry and Environmental Management This thesis is accepted by the Dean of Graduate Studies THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK April, 2007 © Caryn Gunter, 2007 Library and Bibliotheque et 1*1 Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-49682-4 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-49682-4 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par Plntemet, prefer, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform, et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privee, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont ete enleves de cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires in the document page count, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. Canada Abstract The Road Safety Audit (RSA) process is thought to be an efficient tooi to implement innovative road safety measures. It has been widely recognized that RSAs provide benefits and reduce the potential for collisions. Unfortunately, little is known regarding the comparison of increased costs versus benefits associated with projects that have been subjected to an RSA review. A better understanding of collision reduction/mitigation is necessary to allow an objective economic evaluation of the RSA process. This study focused on quantifying the benefits of RSAs. The project undertook a retrospective case study of the first major RSA that was conducted in Canada - the Fredericton-Moncton Highway project. A comparison between the old Trans Canada Highway (from Fredericton to Moncton) and the new Fredericton-Moncton Highway indicated that completing the new facility contributed to an estimated net reduction in the collision rate of 0.259 collisions per million-vehicle-kilometres (or 41 percent) and an estimated safety- related collision cost savings of over $25,500,000 per year. In an attempt to isolate the impacts of RSAs, the Fredericton-Moncton Highway's safety performance was compared to five similar facilities and output of six collisions prediction models. A comparison of average collision rates for similar facilities and the Fredericton-Moncton Highway indicated that applying RSAs contributed to an estimated reduction in the overall collision rate of 0.144 collisions per million-vehicle-kilometres (or 42 percent) and a total collision cost savings of nearly $1,800,000 per year. Similarly, a comparison of the output of collision prediction models and the observed values from the Fredericton-Moncton Highway indicated that applying RSAs contributed to an estimated total reduction in collision rate of 0.084 collisions per million-vehicle-kilometres (or 24 percent) and a total collision cost savings of over $3,000,000 per year. While the improved safety performance of the Fredericton-Moncton Highway may not be solely attributed to the inclusion of the RSA process, the results of this study would suggest it has made a substantial contribution. ii Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to the following groups and individuals who provided me with support throughout the completion of my research: o Dr. Eric Hildebrand with the University of New Brunswick Transportation Group for his continuous advice and guidance as my supervisor, o Yuri Yevdokimov with the University of New Brunswick (Economics Department) for his assistance with benefit-cost analysis, o John Baldwin, Cathy O'Shea, and George Thompson with the New Brunswick Department of Transportation for their assistance regarding collision data, traffic volumes, and control sections for facilities in New Brunswick, o Joyce MacEacheron with the New Brunswick Department of Transportation for her assistance with benefit-cost analysis, o Todd Carr and Richard Scott with MRDC for their assistance regarding collision data, traffic volumes, and control sections for the new Fredericton- Moncton Highway project, o Karen Robichaud of Opus International for her assistance with collision data for the old Trans Canada Highway and benefit-cost analysis, o Greg Costello with the Maine Department of Transportation and Yusuf Mohamedshah with the Federal Highway Administration HSIS Lab for their assistance regarding crash data and collision rates for the Interstate 95 facility in Maine, o Ralph Hessian and Paul Smith with the Nova Scotia Department of Transportation for their assistance regarding collision data, traffic volumes, and control sections for facilities in Nova Scotia, o My husband, Mark Gunter, for his assistance and support, o My family and friends for providing me with encouragement. iii Table of Contents Abstract ii Acknowledgements Hi List of Tables vii List of Figures . , x List of Acronyms xii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Project Need ....2 1.2 Goal and Objectives 2 1.3 Scope 3 1.4 Demographics of Study Area 3 2 Literature Review 6 2.1 Overview of Road Safety Audits 6 2.1.1 Audit Objectives 6 2.1.*2 Audit Stages 7 2.1.3 Parties Involved 7 2.1.4 Audit Process 7 2.1.5 Development of Practice 9 2.2 Previous Studies Quantifying the Benefits of RSAs 15 2.2.1 Surrey County Council Study 16 2.2.2 U.K. Highway Authorities Study ...19 2.2.3 Jordan Study 19 2.2.4 Denmark Study 20 2.2.5 Austroads Study 22 2.2.6 Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Study 24 2.2.7 University of New Brunswick Study 26 2.2.8 National Cooperative Highway Research Program 31 2.2.9 Federal Highway Administration 32 2.2.10 European Transport Safety Council 33 2.3 Collision Prediction Models 33 2.3.1 Hadi.CPM 33 2.3.2 Persaud and Dzbik, CPM 34 2.3.3 Wang, CPM 35 2.3.4 Khorashadi, CPM 36 2.3.5 Bauer and Harwood, CPMs 39 2.3.6 MicroBENCOST, CPM 41 IV 2.4 Collision Costs Studies 43 2.4.1 Hickling Lewis Brod Inc 43 2.4.2 Transportation Association of Canada 44 2.4.3 Transport Canada 45 2.4.4 Federal Highway Administration 46 2.4.5 National Safety Council 47 2.4.6 American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials 47 2.4.7 Australia Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics 48 2.4.8 World Road Association, PIARC 49 2.4.9 Computer Cost Estimation Methods 50 2.5 Literature Review Summary 51 3 Methodology 53 3.1 Collision Classification 53 3.2 Collision Rate Development 54 3.3 Comparison of Collision Rates 55 3.4 Equivalent Collision Frequency .55 3.5 Significance Testing 56 3.6 Benefit-Cost Analysis 58 3.6.1 Collision Cost Development 58 3.6.2 Annual Worth of Road Safety Audit Costs 62 4 Data Analysis 64 4.1 Collision Rates 64 4.2 Comparison of NBDOT and MRDC 70 4.2.1 Reporting Systems 70 4.2.2 Reported Collisions , ...71 4.2.3 Matching Records 73 4.2.4 Non-Matching Records 76 4.3 Comparison to Old Trans Canada Highway 78 4.4 Comparison to Similar Facilities 83 4.4.1 Highway 1, New Brunswick 83 4.4.2 Highway 15, New Brunswick 86 4.4.3 Highway 102, Nova Scotia 88 4.4.4 Highway 104, Nova Scotia 91 4.4.5 Interstate 95, Maine 93 4.4.6 Average Similar Facility Collision Rates 96 4.5 Comparison to Collision Prediction Models 98 4.5.1 Mainlane Collisions 98 V 4.5.2 Average Mainlane Collisions 101 4.5.3 Interchange Collisions 102 4.5.4 Average Interchange Collisions 104 4.6 Monetary Savings Associated with RSAs 106 4.6.1 Old Trans Canada Highway 107 4.6.2 Similar Facilities 107 4.6.3 Collision Prediction Models 110 4.7 Data Analysis Summary 112 5 Conclusions 113 5.1 Collision Rates 113 5.2 Monetary Collision Cost Savings 114 5.3 Benefit-Cost Ratios 115 6 Recommendations 116 6.1 Available Literature 116 6.2 Underreporting of Collisions 116 6.3 Quantifying RSA Benefits ....117 References 118 Bibliography 124 Appendix A - Collision Report Summaries 125 Appendix B - Interchange CPM Crash Frequency Development 140 Appendix C - MRDC and NBDOT Collision Report Forms 145 Appendix D - Significance Testing 150 Curriculum Vitae vi List of Tables Table 2-1: Survey Respondents 14 Table 2-2: Summary of Results for the Surrey County Council Study 16 Table 2-3: Sites Where Number of Collisions Increased 17 Table 2-4: Sites Where Number of Collisions Decreased .17 Table 2-5: Estimated Safety Audit Costs and Savings for Jordan Study 20 Table 2-6: TAC Risk Assessment Matrix 24 Table 2-7: ICBC Modified Risk Assessment Matrix 25 Table 2-8: Summary of Potential Safety Benefits 25 Table 2-9: Audit vs.

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