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Hyperion Asset Management Hyperion Asset Management Company Profile Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. XRO-AU Main Business Activities Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is the market leader in e-commerce, online advertising and cloud computing in China. It operates the following businesses: • Retail commerce in China through Taobao, China's largest mobile commerce platform and consumer-to-consumer (C2C) Marketplace and TMall, China's largest platform for business-to-consumer e-commerce. Alibaba also own Wholesale marketplaces such as 1688.com. There are over 250,000 brands and merchants on TMall and over 10 million sellers on Taobao. Across Alibaba's platforms there are over 2.5 billion items; • New Retail is Alibaba's offline retail businesses; • Alibaba also operates across grocery chains (Hema/Freshippo), department stores (Intime), TMall Supermarket, as well as Alibaba's global import businesses such as Tmall Global and Kaola. Tmall Global is a third-party platform, allowing foreign brands to sell to Chinese consumers. Kaola is also a global import business, selling to Chinese consumers, however it is on a first-party basis; • Global commerce where Alibaba owns Lazada, a leading e-commerce platform across South East Asia. The company also owns AliExpress which facilitates cross border trade between China and other countries. In terms of Global Wholesale ecommerce, Alibaba owns Alibaba.com, China's largest international online wholesale marketplace; • Alibaba also owns a controlling ownership in Cainiao (approximately 63%). Cainiao is a logistics data platform that utilises the capabilities of logistics partners to provide logistics services both in China and globally; • Alibaba owns a consumer services division which includes Ele.me, Koubei and Fliggy. Ele.me offers online food delivery services; • The company owns Alibaba Cloud, which is a leading cloud computing (Internet-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS)) provider in China; • Alibaba owns Alibaba Pictures which includes the digital media businesses such as Youku, Damai and Alibaba Literature. Youku is one of China's leading video and video streaming platforms; and • Alibaba also has a number of equity accounted minority investments, including a 33% equity interest in Ant Financial (AliPay). The main revenue source for Alibaba is online advertising and transaction revenue from e-commerce (comprising 43% of sales). This is followed by New Retail revenue (comprising 24% of sales) and Cloud Computing (comprising 8%). Key Value Proposition to Customers Within Alibaba's online advertising business, the value proposition for advertisers is providing access to the largest number of consumers in China. Alibaba provides merchants the ability to advertise to over 800 million Chinese consumers, as well as over 240 million consumers outside of China. Online ads can better target the desired consumer and result in higher returns on investments. From a consumer's perspective, as there is targeting ability, ads can be useful rather than annoying. Alimama is Alibaba's marketing platform. Alibaba monetise ads on an auction basis. Within the company's marketplace businesses, Alibaba provides merchants the ability to sell to a large audience of potential consumers (Alibaba's Annual Active Consumers at FY21 amounted to 811 million). One of the most challenging aspects of retailing is awareness and generating traffic. Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba's other marketplace businesses solve this challenge for merchants as well as broadening the addressable market for merchants, particularly Chinese consumers in rural areas. The value proposition to consumers is the breadth, selection and convenience of shopping online through a known source. Across Alibaba's platforms, there are more than 2.5 billion products available. In its cloud business, Alibaba enables companies to shift their workloads into the cloud. Corporates are able to reduce costs with less internal IT staff, increase productivity with variable processing and storage capacity immediately available, and also have the most up to date technology. In the logistics business, it enables more efficient and effective delivery. This improves customer satisfaction and reduces friction which increases the likelihood consumers will continue to purchase online. Alibaba's value proposition in its local services segment is through increased convenience to consumers by having fast food and groceries delivered efficiently through either Ele.me or Freshippo. Finally, the entertainment business provides video and video streaming entertainment for consumers. Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Hyperion and its representatives on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Returns from investments may fluctuate and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Publication Date: August 2021 Sustainable Competitive Advantages and Outlook Alibaba has a leading market share in e-commerce, online advertising and cloud computing as well as having a number of other businesses that provide value to consumers. The e-commerce platforms (including Taobao, Tmall, Lazada and Aliexpress) benefit from networks effects whereby more buyers lead to more sellers, and so on. Alibaba has a first mover advantage in the cloud computing market, and by using its scale it is able to innovate at a faster rate and reduce prices to compete more aggressively. Overall Company Growth Options Hyperion believe there are significant remaining growth opportunities that are organic in nature. China is undergoing rapid growth in the number of consumers that would be defined as Middle Class, leading to strong growth in household consumption. As access to technology continues to improve in China, this opens the addressable market for Alibaba's services. According to Euromonitor, still only 59% of China's population would be defined as 'Internet Population'. This is forecast to increase to 75% in FY26. Accordingly, as the number of consumers, that have access to the Internet has increased, Alibaba's Annual Active Consumers (AAC) has also risen. Alibaba's AAC across Tmall and Taobao has increased from 350 million (or 57% of the Internet Population) in FY15 to 811 million (or 92% of the Internet Population in FY21). Long term, it is Hyperion's expectation that both Internet Population and the number of AAC that Alibaba have will increase. Alibaba are targeting 1 billion AAC by FY24. Alibaba will monetise Taobao and Tmall through commissions (Tmall) and through their advertising business (Alimama). In the long term we expect the blended take rate to increase. Alibaba's share of e-commerce Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) is already high (at over 60%) and has decreased over time (at approximately 70% in FY17). Hyperion forecast Alibaba's market share to decrease though remain high due to the strong value proposition of their online platforms, the benefit of Alibaba's broader ecosystem to Tmall and Taobao, and due to network effects. However, as the e-commerce penetration continues to grow, we expect Alibaba's market share of China Retail Sales to increase (from current levels of approximately 18%). Cloud Computing will be a significant growth opportunity in the long term for Alibaba. The total value of information technology spend in the U.S. is roughly three times the size of the Chinese market. The Public Cloud market is in its infancy globally, however the market in China is at an even earlier stage. China currently comprises 5% of the global public cloud market and Hyperion expect this to increase significantly over time. Hyperion estimate Alibaba has a market share of over 45% of the Public Cloud market in China. We believe Alibaba can maintain or even extend this market share given their strong first mover advantage. There are broad ecosystem benefits of having Alibaba's e-commerce platforms, as well as their 'New Retail' businesses, which are traditional offline grocery and department store businesses that Alibaba is transforming through technology (bridging offline and online). Alibaba can also leverage their existing AACs into Ele.me and other businesses such as Youku. Further, holding an equity stake in Ant Financial (AliPay) is also leading to strong AAC growth in Alibaba's businesses. Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Hyperion and its representatives on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Returns from investments may fluctuate and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Publication Date: August 2021 Important Disclaimers For Recipients in Australia: This report has been issued and distributed by Hyperion Asset Management Ltd (ABN 80 080 135 897) (AFSL 238380). Hyperion Asset Management Ltd is the provider of the general advice (‘the Service’) and takes responsibility for the production of this report. The Service is provided through the research of investment securities. To the extent the Report contains general advice it has been prepared without reference to an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors should consider the advice in light of these matters and, if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at https://www.hyperion.com.au/fsg/ Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Hyperion and its representatives on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Returns from investments may fluctuate and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Publication Date: August 2021 .
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