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(2019). Bank X, the New Banks BANK X The New New Banks Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions March 2019 Citi is one of the world’s largest financial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employees conduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary conversation – accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice. As our premier thought leadership product, Citi GPS is designed to help our readers navigate the global economy’s most demanding challenges and to anticipate future themes and trends in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harvests the thought leadership of a wide range of senior professionals across our firm. This is not a research report and does not constitute advice on investments or a solicitations to buy or sell any financial instruments. For more information on Citi GPS, please visit our website at www.citi.com/citigps. Citi Authors Ronit Ghose, CFA Kaiwan Master Rahul Bajaj, CFA Global Head of Banks Global Banks Team GCC Banks Research Research +44-20-7986-4028 +44-20-7986-0241 +966-112246450 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Charles Russell Robert P Kong, CFA Yafei Tian, CFA South Africa Banks Asia Banks, Specialty Finance Hong Kong & Taiwan Banks Research & Insurance Research & Insurance Research +27-11-944-0814 +65-6657-1165 +852-2501-2743 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Judy Zhang China Banks & Brokers Research +852-2501-2798 [email protected] Expert Commentators Tanya Andreasyan Anne Boden Megan Caywood Editor-in-Chief Founder & CEO Head of Digital Strategy FinTech Futures Starling Bank Barclays plc Aritra Chakravarty Vanessa Colella Leda Glyptis Founder & CEO Chief Innovation Officer CEO Dozens Citi Ventures 11:FS Foundry Deniz Güven Michal Kissos Hertzog Antony Jenkins CEO CEO Founder & CEO Standard Chartered HK Pepper 10X Future Technologies Virtual Bank Rishi Khosla James Lloyd David Rosa Co-Founder Asia Pac FinTech & Payments Co-Founder & CEO OakNorth Leader Neat EY © 2019 Citigroup 3 BANK X The New New Bank Kathleen Boyle, CFA Is your bank giving you the best customer experience? Has it embraced the digital Managing Editor, Citi GPS age like other services you deal with daily? A substantial number of new entrants into the banking sector think that answer is no and that they can provide a new banking model using technology and digital channels to deliver a better digital customer experience During the Great Financial Crisis, legacy banks turned their focus to cost and capital optimization to help drive profitability amid a backdrop of slowing revenue growth. New regulations and changing business practices meant that technology investment was diverted towards regulatory and compliance challenges. While this was happening, smaller ‘challenger banks’ began to emerge driven by FinTech startups. These challenger banks were designed around the digital revolution and were able to leverage data insights via agile technology stacks. With these insights, they offered a customer personalization in their financial services and a fully digital banking experience. As noted in the report that follows, legacy banks often have data that is stuck in multiple silos supported by core banking technology that was literally built in the age of black and white television. Manual intervention is high, which slows down operating speed, reduces flexibility, increases costs, and ultimately degrades efficiency and experience. Because a lot of digital technology isn’t part of core banking technology, challenger banks tend to be quicker at incorporating new products and processes onto their platforms and help to easily connect with third- party products — offering more choices to the end user. Three types of challenger banks have emerged: (1) standalone challenger banks, which are primarily FinTech companies leveraging technology and data to streamline retail banking by offering better convenience and pricing; (2) incumbent- led challenger banks, which are started within legacy banks through investment in technology and by creating new digital-only banks; and (3) BigTech-led challenger banks, which are created through GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon) and BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent) and who can use their vast networks to acquire customers quickly as they branch out into financial services. The challenge for incumbent banks is that while digitalization can lower costs by 30- 50% (primarily through a decline in full-time employees as technology disintermediates workers), new competition and greater transparency are likely to lower revenues by 10-30%. We expect the digital disruption risk to start in payments and then widen to other financial products. The tipping point for incumbent banks is if their core businesses of savings and loans are impacted. Creating an ‘incumbent challenger’ sounds like an oxymoron, but as legacy banks recognize the threat that new entrants into banking are posing to revenue and customers, they need to reinvent themselves and reimagine banking. This involves legacy banks partnering with technology companies to create effective joint ventures as well as moving into more disruptive technology and business models to transform themselves into digital competitors By creating their own Bank X, we believe legacy banks can transform themselves from slow moving caterpillars to agile butterflies. © 2019 Citigroup technical solutions An open is agile,ecosystem easily that scalable with third-parties around via greater collaborations and reduces time to market 2030E - - competitive pricing - reater transparency around products and G Base –23% - Forecast - - Bull –45% - 2017 The Rise of Challenger Banks and2016 Mobile 2015 Source: ECB, Citi Research estimates 2014 Money through Digitalization 2013 2012 2011 -16% 2010 2009 SIMILAR TO OTHER GIG ECONOMY SECTORS, 2008 DIGITAL BANKING CAN RUN WITH LESS 2007 FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES, ESPECIALLY 2006 IN THE O&T AREAS 2005 2004 2003 +11% 2002 2001 2000 (th) 1999 600 200 800 400 000 600 200 , , , , , , , European Bank3 Full Time3 Employees2 2 2 1 1 Projected cost/revenue reduction from digital disruption over next 10 years Projected cost reduction over 10 years 70% DIGITAL Bull WINNER US RoTE: 24% 60% EU RoTE: 15% 50% Bear 40% US RoTE: 10% 2030 EU RoTE: 5% 30% 2018 20% Base Case Super Bear US RoTE: 16% US RoTE: 3% 10% EU RoTE: 8% EU RoTE: 0% DIGITAL A DECLINE IN FULL TIME EMPLOYEES WILL 0% LAGGARD DRIVE COST SAVINGS OF 30-50% FOR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% LARGE BANKS OVER TIME, HOWEVER NEW Projected revenue loss over 10 years ENTRANTS AND INCREASED COMPETITION IN GENERAL COULD ALSO RESULT IN REVENUE LOSSES OF 10-30% Source: Citi Research © 2019 Citigroup THREE TYPES OF CHALLENGER BANKS — STANDALONE DIGITAL PLATFORMS, DIGITAL-ONLY BANKS EVOLVED FROM INCUMBENT BANKS, AMD BIG TECH EXPANSIONS INTO FINTECH — ARE TAKING SHARE BY BETTER ALIGNING WITH CUSTOMER EXPECTATIONS Banking Sector Pain Points Targeted by Challenger Banks Source: Citi Research Ease of use and accessibility with new products to serve unmet needs An open ecosystem that is agile, easily scalable and reduces time to market via greater collaborations with third-parties around technical solutions Greater transparency around products and competitive pricing Personalized banking or clienta niche grouppropostition product,experiences sector focused with on specialist BEYOND CHALLENGER BANKS, MOBILE MONEY IS FAST BECOMING AN ALTERNATIVE TO BANK ACCOUNTS AND PAYMENT SERVICES IN EMERGING AND FRONTIER MARKETS Bank accounts vs. Mobile Money Better operational lower costs efficiencies with Bank accounts vs. Mobile Money Adults actively using/having a Mobile Money account, 2017 75% KEN 60% UGA CHN 45% TZA GHA 30% BGD ZAF CHL PHL NGA 15% TUR IND MYS VNM MEX PER PAK ARG UAE BRA THA KHM MMR EGY IDN 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Adults with account at financial institution, 2017 Source: World Bank Survey, Citi Research 6 Contents Bank X: An Introduction 7 Banking is Broken – Time to Reboot 7 A Brief History of Banking: The Last 4000 Years 9 Bank of the Future: Bank X 12 Why Banking is Broken and How to Fix It 18 Interview with Antony Jenkins of 10X Future Technologies: 18 Modeling the 10x Upside and Downside 22 Disruption Risk – Where Do Revenues Go? 24 Changing the Operational Model, Reducing Costs 26 Innovation at an Incumbent 28 Interview with Vanessa Colella of Citi Ventures: 28 On Building Challenger Banks: Independently and for Incumbents 31 Interview with Megan Caywood: 31 Build What You Need, Don’t Extend What You Have 34 Interview with Leda Glyptis of 11:FS: 34 On Core Banking Systems 37 Interview with Tanya Andreasyan of FinTech Futures: 37 Standalone Challenger Banks 41 Challenger Banks in the U.K. 41 Examining the Banking-as-a-Service Model 42 Case Study: Starling Bank – A Bank with No Legacy 43 Banking-as-a-Service and Smart Money Management 45 An Interview with Anne Boden of Starling Bank 45 Building an SME Challenger Bank 47 Interview with Rishi Khosla of OakNorth 47 Dozens: Putting the Fin into FinTech 50 Interview with Aritra Chakravarty of Dozens 50 Virtual Banks in Hong Kong 55 Building Challenger Banks in Asia 59 Interview with James Lloyd of EY 59 Building an SME-focused Neobank in HK 63 Interview with David Rosa of Neat 63 Challenger Banks in South Africa 68 Incumbent Challenger Banks 73 Incumbent Challengers: Oxymoron or Viable Model? 73 Case Study: Marcus by Goldman Sachs
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