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Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Storm Surge and Wave Impacts with Projected Sea Level Rise Within the Salish Sea Nathan R

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Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Storm Surge and Wave Impacts with Projected Sea Level Rise Within the Salish Sea Nathan R Western Washington University Western CEDAR WWU Graduate School Collection WWU Graduate and Undergraduate Scholarship Summer 2019 Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Storm Surge and Wave Impacts with Projected Sea Level Rise within the Salish Sea Nathan R. VanArendonk Western Washington University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://cedar.wwu.edu/wwuet Part of the Geology Commons Recommended Citation VanArendonk, Nathan R., "Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Storm Surge and Wave Impacts with Projected Sea Level Rise within the Salish Sea" (2019). WWU Graduate School Collection. 901. https://cedar.wwu.edu/wwuet/901 This Masters Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the WWU Graduate and Undergraduate Scholarship at Western CEDAR. It has been accepted for inclusion in WWU Graduate School Collection by an authorized administrator of Western CEDAR. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Storm Surge and Wave Impacts with Projected Sea Level Rise within the Salish Sea By Nathan R. VanArendonk Accepted in Partial Completion of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science ADVISORY COMMITTEE Dr. Eric Grossman, Chair Dr. Brady Foreman Dr. Robert Mitchell GRADUATE SCHOOL David L. Patrick, Interim Dean Master’s Thesis In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master’s degree at Western Washington University, I grant to Western Washington University the non-exclusive royalty-free right to archive, reproduce, distribute, and display the thesis in any and all forms, including electronic format, via any digital library mechanisms maintained by WWU. I represent and warrant this is my original work, and does not infringe or violate any rights of others. I warrant that I have obtained written permissions from the owner of any third party copyrighted material included in these files. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of this work, including but not limited to the right to use all or part of this work in future works, such as articles or books. Library users are granted permission for individual, research and non-commercial reproduction of this work for educational purposes only. Any further digital posting of this document requires specific permission from the author. Any copying or publication of this thesis for commercial purposes, or for financial gain, is not allowed without my written permission Nathan R. VanArendonk 08/13/2019 Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Storm Surge and Wave Impacts with Projected Sea Level Rise within the Salish Sea A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of Western Washington University In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science by Nathan R. VanArendonk August 2019 Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) in the Salish Sea, a large inland waterway shared between Canada and the United States, is expected to be 0.3 to 1.8 m by the year 2100. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions, global ice sheet loss, and other controls such as vertical land movement all contribute to this range. Valuable property, infrastructure, and critical habitats for shellfish and threatened salmon populations are at risk to coastal changes associated with SLR. Additionally, development in Washington State is expected to accelerate through the end of the 21st century adding extra pressure on protecting ecosystems and people from natural hazards along the coast. Global climate models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, yet little is known about the impacts of climate change on the local wave climate. Understanding the dynamic interactions that SLR and climate change will have on the wave climate and coastal systems within the Salish Sea is vital for protecting these resources and planning for the future. In support of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project and the United States Geological Survey Coastal Change Impacts Project, I modeled historic and potential future waves in the Salish Sea to evaluate the extent that wave energy reaching the shore may change with 0.3, 0.6, and 0.91 m of SLR. I also assessed potential changes in future wind conditions that drive wave generation projected by the publicly available MACA (Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs) downscaled NOAA GFDL-ESM2M (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth Systems Model) GCM. Lastly, I modeled wave runup to assess potential flood and wave impacts along the shore to the year 2100 as part of a case study in support of the City of Tacoma’s climate adaptation planning for parks, sensitive habitats and significant commercial development along Ruston Way. iv This project generated the first regional wave model and historical hindcast within the Salish Sea to define the recurrence frequency of a range of extreme events and resolve their variability alongshore at spatial scales relevant for planning. Existing models of future climate indicate little change in extreme wind speeds, but potential changes in wind direction that could affect waves. Model results indicate that annual extreme deep water waves (-10 m NAVD88 depth) may increase up to 30 cm under 0.91 m of SLR with the greatest change occurring in shallow embayments and large river deltas where higher water levels will reduce depth limitation and influence fetch. Wave runup modeling along the demonstration site of Ruston Way in Tacoma, showed that extreme coastal water levels reaching and exceeding the Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-yr Base Flood Elevation (BFE) will significantly increase under 0.85 m of SLR, the 50% probabilistic estimate by 2100 for the city of Tacoma. While the dominant exposure of shorelines to flooding is along south-facing coasts, wave runup modeling elucidated that extreme water levels causing flooding are sensitive to waves and wind stress, especially important along north facing shorelines. Equally important is the finding that intermediate disturbances driving flooding will significantly increase in frequency with sea level rise; today’s 10-yr recurrence storm event under 0.85 m of SLR was projected to exceed FEMA’s 100-yr BFE across more than 50% of locations modeled along Ruston Way, suggesting that FEMA’s BFE may be biased low for projected future sea level change. In the Salish Sea, SLR is expected to drive an increase in coastal flooding extent and frequency where waves amplify the impacts of higher static water levels and further elevate the water surface. v Acknowledgements This project was supported by the Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP), the Geology Department of Western Washington University, and U.S. Geological Survey. I would like to acknowledge and thank my committee members Bob Mitchell and Brady Foreman for providing support and assistance on this project. As well as Sean Crosby, who provided invaluable guidance and support with all aspects of my thesis work. I would like to thank Eric Grossman, my thesis advisor and committee chair, for providing me with this incredible opportunity and having the confidence in me to complete this project. Eric, your enthusiastic support, guidance, and leadership through this entire process has been incredible and I wanted to thank you for everything. I would like to thank members of Eric’s research group at the USGS Pacific Coastal Marine Science Center who I’ve had the pleasure of learning from and working with during my time at WWU. Along with colleagues at Deltares in the Netherlands who’ve provided immense support with trouble shooting and teaching me about the models used in this project. I would also like to thank everyone who worked on this project as part of the WCRP, this was a great exposure to collaborative science and I am grateful for this experience. Finally, I would like to acknowledge and thank everyone in the Geology Department at WWU with whom I’ve had the pleasure of meeting and interacting with, specifically my fellow graduate students who have made this a great experience. vi Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. xi 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Setting ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 PUGET SOUND COASTAL LANDSCAPE ................................................................................................... 5 2.2 DRIVERS OF COASTAL FLOODING ......................................................................................................... 6 3.0 Methods..................................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 PHASE-AVERAGED WAVE MODEL ........................................................................................................
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