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The Effect of the Pricing Policy of the Cypriot Banks Upon Accession to the Euro Area As at 31/12/2007

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The Effect of the Pricing Policy of the Cypriot Banks Upon Accession to the Euro Area As at 31/12/2007 View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Middlesex University Research Repository The Effect of the Pricing Policy of the Cypriot Banks Upon Accession to the Euro Area as at 31/12/2007 Marios Soupashis DPROF 2010 The Effect of the Pricing Policy of the Cypriot Banks Upon Accession to the Euro Area as at 31/12/2007 A project submitted to Middlesex University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Professional Studies Marios Soupashis National Center for Work Based Learning Partnerships Middlesex University May 2010 MAY 2010 2 Declaration I hereby declare that this research project has been conducted by myself. Except where reference is made in the text of the research project, this research project contains no material published elsewhere or extracted in whole or in part from a research project by which I have qualified for or been awarded another degree or diploma. No other person’s work has been used without due acknowledgement in the main text of the research project. This work is a record written by myself. This research project has not been submitted for the award of any degree or diploma in the any other tertiary institution. Some of the results obtained in this research project have been presented as follows: meeting, report content and newspaper article publication. Marios Soupashis MAY 2010 3 Acknowledgement I would like to express my gratitude to all those who gave me the possibility to complete this thesis. I want to thank the Bank of Cyprus Group and especially Mr. Evdokimos Xenofontos, member of the board, and Mr. Chris Patsalides, the Group Treasurer, for giving me permission to commence my thesis in the first instance. Furthermore, I am deeply indebted to my external advisor, Dr. Marios Clerides, who although positioned in a competitive bank, has devoted precious time, provided me with crucial feedback and stimulating suggestions, from the beginning to the end of the research project. I am obliged to my friends Dr Marios Mavrides and Mr Antonis Sofocleous for their valuable comments and suggestions for improving the outcome. I am also bound to all the staff of the Middlesex University, the Intercollege and especially to my internal adviser Dr. Salomi Sophocleous Papadima whose inspiring support, serenity and encouragement has helped me throughout the whole learning process of the DProf programme. Especially I would like to thank my wife, Despo, and my children, Yiolanda and Ioannis, whose patient love enabled me to complete this work. MAY 2010 4 Abstract Cyprus’ accession into the Eurozone has been a cornerstone on the modern history of the island. The research project is concentrating on the effect that Cyprus’ participation in the Euro Area will have on the banking and financial institutions. The new Euro Area environment is characterized by “price stability” and that is achieved through an interest rate mechanism set by the European Central Bank. The interest rate levels however, are not disbursed uniformly within each member state. It was identified quite early in the research project that a number of factors are affecting the depositors and borrowers characteristics. Factors such as risk exposure, disposable income, alternative financing sources, average firm size, banking market concentration, asset and liability structure differ from one member state to another. For a banking institution, these particular factors, are enough to deviate from the interest rate benchmark that the European Central Bank is setting, in order to operate efficiently and profitable within each member state’s economic characteristics. The research project was concentrated on the level of the interest rates that exist between the different deposit and loan type products in the Cypriot economy and in the Euro Area. Involving case description general analytic strategies, results were produced from the description of the Euro Area and Cypriot economies, the Euro Area MFIs against Cypriot banks and also at the end the Creek banks against the Cypriot banks. MAY 2010 5 It was proved that during this transition period, there exists disequilibrium on the level of the interest rates between the Cypriot banks, the Euro Area MFIs and the Greek banks. It is also proved that these differences on the level of the interest rates are in favour of the Cypriot banks. MAY 2010 6 Table of Contents Page Summary 18-20 Table of Abbreviations 21-23 Chapter 1 – Introduction to the Project Study 1.1 Introduction 24 1.2 Hypothesis and Key Questions 25-26 1.3 Research Questions 26-28 1.4 Professional Significance of the Project Study 28-30 Chapter 2 – Literature Review 2.1 Research Statement and Questions 31-35 2.2 The Cyprus Economy 35-38 2.3 The Eurosystem 39-41 2.3.1 The Eurosystem – Price Stability in the Euro Area 41-44 2.3.2 The Eurosystem – HICP Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices 44-47 2.3.3 The Eurosystem – The Mechanics of the ECB’s Monetary Policy 47-53 2.4 The Maastricht Treaty 53-56 2.4.1 The Maastricht Criteria 56-58 2.4.2 Rationale of the Maastricht Criteria 58-62 2.5 The Cyprus Banking Sector 62-65 2.6 The Euro Area Banking Sector 65-73 2.7 Synopses of Chapter 2 73-76 Chapter 3 – Research Methodology 3.1 Introduction 77-80 MAY 2010 7 3.2 Purpose of my Research 80-81 3.3 Research Approaches 81-98 3.4 Research Families 98-101 3.5 Fieldwork 101 3.6 Deskwork 101-103 3.7 My Combination of Methodologies 104 3.7.1 Data Collection Methods and Analysis Techniques 104-108 3.7.2 The Use of Averages 108-111 3.7.3 The Use of Disaggregate Data 111-114 3.7.4 Validity and Reliability/Dependability 115-116 3.7.5 Ethical Issues 117-119 3.8 My Role in the Research 119-123 Chapter 4 – Overview of the Cyprus and Euro Area Economies 4.1 Introduction 124-125 4.2 The Cyprus Economy 4.2.1 Overview 125-128 4.2.2 Economic Activity 128-133 4.2.3 Trade Balance 133-134 4.2.4 Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt 134-138 4.3 Money Supply, Interest and Exchange Rates in Cyprus 138-139 4.3.1 The Cyprus Pound Under Attack 139-141 4.4 Meeting the Maastricht Criteria – The Case of Cyprus 141-146 4.5 Highlights of the Cyprus Economy as at 31/12/2007 146-147 4.6 The Eurozone Economy 148-156 4.6.1 Money Supply Growth 156-158 4.6.2 General Government Debt 158-160 4.6.3 Euro Area Fiscal Policy 160-163 4.7 Euro Area Trade 163-166 4.8 Ageing Europe 166-168 4.9 Highlights of the Euro Area Economy as at 31/12/2007 168-169 MAY 2010 8 4.10 Synopsis of Chapter 4 170-173 Chapter 5 – The Euro Area and Cyprus Banking Sectors 5.1 Introduction 174-175 5.2 The Cyprus and Euro Area Banking Structures 175-179 5.3 Banking Competition – The Herfindahl Index 179-181 5.3.1 Competition in the Cyprus Banking Sector - A Sad Realization 182-184 5.4 Cyprus Banking Industry Total Deposits 184-190 5.4.1 Growth Driven by Deposits 190 5.5 Cyprus Tax Regime and Foreign Direct Investment 190-192 5.6 Euro Area’s MFIs Deposits 192-195 5.7 Euro Area and Cyprus Banking Sector Loans 195-201 5.8 Remarks and Conclusions of Chapter 5 201-204 Chapter 6 – The Pricing Factor of the Cypriot Banks and the Euro Area MFIs 6.1 Introduction 205-206 6.2 The Pricing Factor Issue 206-208 6.3 The Interest Rate Environment in the Euro Area and Cyprus 208-214 6.4 The Deposit Rates Spreads 214-215 6.4.1 The Deposit Spreads. Can a Benchmark be Obtained? 215-219 6.4.2 Current Account and Overnight Deposit Spreads 219-221 6.4.3 CY 3 month Notice and up to 3 months Deposit Rate Spreads 221-222 6.4.4 CY vs EU 1 year Deposits Rate 222-223 6.5 The Lending Rates 223-227 6.6 The Household Sector 227 6.6.1 The EU Household and Individual Enterprises Sector 227-229 6.6.2 The Cyprus Household Sector 229-232 MAY 2010 9 6.6.3 Housing Loans or Loans for House Purchase 232-239 6.6.4 Real Consumer Credit/Personal Loans Interest Rates 239-246 6.7 Non-Financial Corporations Sector 246-257 6.8 The Governments Sector 257-263 6.9 Synopses on Chapter 6 264-266 Chapter 7 – Conclusions, Findings and Recommendations 7.1 Introduction 267 7.2 Conclusions and Findings 268-274 7.3 Recommendations 275-284 7.4 General Commentary 284-287 Chapter 8 – Reflective and Reflexive Learning 8.1 Introduction 288 8.2 Previous Learning 288-289 8.3 Learning from the DProf Programme 289-293 8.4 Experiential Learning Theory 293-294 8.5 Reflection in Action 294-297 8.6 Critical Assessment 297-299 8.7 Reflexivity 299-301 Chapter 9 – Comparing with the Greek Banking Sector 9.1 Introduction 302-303 9.2 Greek & Cypriot Banking Structures 303-304 9.3 The Deposit Rates 305-308 9.4 The Lending Rates 308-310 MAY 2010 10 9.5 The Household Sector 310-313 9.5.1 Housing Loans 313-318 9.5.2 Consumer Loans 318-321 9.6 The Non-Financial Corporations Sector 321-328 9.7 Greek vs Cypriot Banks. Annual Report 2007 328-334 9.8 Reflections 334-335 9.9 Findings 335-338 9.10 Synthesis of Chapter 9 339-340 Chapter 10 – The Banking Crisis vs Recommendations 10.1 Introduction 341-343 10.2 Assessment of Recommendations 343-344 10.2.1 Strong Liquidity Ratios 344-345 10.2.2 Interest Rate Issues 345-346 10.2.3 Deposits 346-351 10.2.4 Housing Loans 351-353 10.2.5 Consumer Credit 353-354 10.2.6 Non Financial Corporations (NFC) Sector 354-355 10.2.7 Government Sector 355-356 10.3 General Comment 356-359 References 360-369 Annex Section A1 Money Supply Categories 370-371 A2 Cypriot Cooperative Societies 371-372 A3 Description of a Bank’s Assets and Liabilities 372-375 A4 Factors Affecting the Lending Rates 375-378 A5 The Inflation Effect on the Lending Rates 378-384 MAY 2010 11 Contents List of Tables Page Chapter 2 Table 2.1 Weight Components
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