Present and Future Water Demand in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Suren Kulshreshtha Cecil Nagy Ana Bogdan With the Assistance of Albert Ugochukwu & Edward Knopf Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon, Saskatchewan A report prepared for SOUTH-CENTRAL ENTERPRISE REGION & SASKATCHEWAN WATERSHED AUTHORITY MOOSE JAW MAY 2012 Present and Future Water Demand in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Suren Kulshreshtha Professor Cecil Nagy Research Associate With the Assistance of Ana Bogdan Albert Ugochukwu Research Assistant & Edward Knopf Principal, Northern Bounty Trading, Regina Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon, Saskatchewan A report prepared for SOUTH-CENTRAL ENTERPRISE REGION (SCER) & SASKATCHEWAN WATERSHED AUTHORITY MOOSE JAW MAY 2012 Present and Future Water Use in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Kulshreshtha, Nagy & Bogdan May 2012 Page ii Present and Future Water Use in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Kulshreshtha, Nagy & Bogdan May 2012 Page ii Present and Future Water Use in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Kulshreshtha, Nagy & Bogdan Executive Summary Since water is a necessity for ecological functions, as well as for social and economic activities, its status as valuable commodity is an increasingly urgent concern for provincial planners. In the Qu’Appelle River Basin, the present water supplies are limited, and further expansion of water availability may be a costly measure. As the future economy in the basin increases, leading to population growth, competition for water could become even fiercer. Climate change may pose another threat to the region, partly due to reduced water supplies and increased demand for it. Development of sounder water management strategies may become a necessity. The development of future water management strategies will require information on future water demand and supply levels. This study was undertaken to estimate current (2010) water demand levels and to forecast them for the basin by type of users for 2020, 2040, and 2060 period. Upper Qu’Appelle River Basin Description The Qu’Appelle River Basin is located in the southern part of the province of Saskatchewan. It extends from the South Saskatchewan River Basin to just inside the province of Manitoba, where the Qu’Appelle River joins the Assiniboine River. The basin occupies an area of 74,589 square kilometers, 93% of which is used for agricultural purposes. The basin houses a population of 328,365 people – roughly a third of the provincial population. Two major cities are located in the basin – the capital of the province, Regina, and the city of Moose Jaw. Currently, there are five potash mines in the basin; their production is expected to increase significantly. In addition, irrigation development is being planned in the basin. Major recreational facilities also exist within this area. May 2012 Page i Present and Future Water Use in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Kulshreshtha, Nagy & Bogdan Methodology Total water demand was broadly divided into two types: One, demand for water resulting from socio-economic activities, called direct anthropogenic water demand, and Two, water demand that is subject to natural and policy related factors, called indirect anthropogenic water demand. The second category of water demand included four types of demands: evaporation, apportionment of water as subject to the Prairie Provinces Water Board agreement, meeting instream water flow needs, and screening environmental protection / preservation requirements. The direct anthropogenic water demands result from several types of economic and social activity. Some of these activities are related to the production of goods, while others need water for sustenance and related social activities. Total water demand for a given purpose was estimated by using water demand coefficient and scale of economic or social activity. In this study, future water demand (for the years 2020, 2040, and 2060) was estimated for three scenarios: Baseline Scenario; Climate Change Scenario, and Water Conservation Scenario. The Baseline Scenario assumed that trends based on past data will continue into the future. For the Climate Change Scenario, water demand was affected by changes in climate characteristics and occurrence of extreme events. Water demand coefficients for any water demand related activity exposed to these conditions were adjusted for these future periods. The third scenario assumed that the province has developed a water conservation policy with measures that have been adopted by various water users to reduce water demand. Water Demand Estimates under Baseline Scenario As shown in Figure ES.1, total indirect anthropogenic water demand in the future was set equal to the 2010 level, since all these demands are related to the availability of water, which in the future would be affected by a set of natural factors and policy changes. Over the 2010-2060 period, this amount was estimated to be 463,934 dam3. By 2060, total water demand in the basin would increase to 830,057 dam3 – an increase of 38.5% over the 2010 level. Water demand in the Qu’Appelle River Basin is estimated for 2010 at 599,342 dam3 of which direct anthropogenic demands accounted for 135,390 dam3 (or 22.6% of the total water demand). Increased amount of irrigated area and expansion of the potash sector are the main forces behind the change in water demand. This proportion is expected to increase in the future, as by 2060, these activities would account for 44.1% of the total water demand, slightly less than doubling the 2010 share. By year 2060, the basin will experience an increase of 162% in the total direct anthropogenic water demand (Table ES.1). May 2012 Page ii Present and Future Water Use in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Kulshreshtha, Nagy & Bogdan Figure ES.1: Distribution of Total Water Demand in the Qu'Appelle River Basin by Major Categories of Demand, Baseline Scenario, 2010 – 2060 Table ES.1: Water Demand in the Qu’Appelle River Basin, Baseline Scenario, 2010-2060 Amount of Water Demand in dam3 Sector 2010 2020 2040 2060 Agriculture 64,697 67,090 165,358 206,353 Industry and Mining 21,815 83,779 94,879 95,460 Municipal (Domestic) 45,689 44,852 44,512 45,607 Recreational 199 183 186 191 Total Direct Anthropogenic Water 132,400 195,904 304,935 347,611 Demand* Excluding Interbasin Transfers Interbasin Transfers 2,990 10,144 10,212 18,512 Total Direct Anthropogenic Water 135,390 206,048 315,147 366,123 Demand* Including Interbasin Transfers Indirect Anthropogenic Water Demand 463,934 463,934 463,934 463,934 Total Water Demand Excluding Interbasin 596,334 659,838 768,869 811,545 Transfers Total Water Demand Including Interbasin 599,324 669,982 779,081 830,057 Transfers % Increase in Direct Anthropogenic Water Demand Over 48.0% 130.3% 162.4% 2010 % Increase in Total Water Demand Over 2010 11.8% 30.0% 38.5% * Totals may not add precisely due to rounding May 2012 Page iii Present and Future Water Use in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Kulshreshtha, Nagy & Bogdan Total direct anthropogenic water demand in the basin represents a sum of four types of socio- economic activities: (i) water required for agricultural production and related activities; (ii) water needed by industries and for mining; (iii) water demanded by people living in various communities in the basin, collectively called municipal and domestic water demands; and (iv) water needs for recreational and related human activities. These water demands are expected to increase over time. In total, direct anthropogenic water demand in the basin will increase to 366 thousand dam3 in 2060, compared to the present level of only 135 thousand dam3. As shown in Figure ES.2, much of this increase can be credited to agricultural water demand, and within that, to irrigation water demand. Industrial and mining water demands are also expected to increase, but not by such a magnitude. Figure ES.2: Trend in Water Demand for Direct Anthropogenic Demands by Type of Demand, Qu'Appelle River Basin, Baseline Scenario, 2010 – 2060 As a result of varying trends over the 2010-2060 period, the composition of total direct anthropogenic water demand will likewise change. As shown in Figure ES.3, agriculture will increase its share of the total to 59% as opposed to 49% in 2010. Industrial and mining water demand share will also rise from the present 16% to 28% May 2012 Page iv Present and Future Water Use in the Qu’Appelle River Basin Kulshreshtha, Nagy & Bogdan Figure ES.3: Distribution of Total Direct Anthropogenic Water Demand by Type of Demand in the Qu'Appelle River Basin, Baseline Scenario, 2010 and 2060 Water Demand Estimates under Climate Change Scenario As noted above, in addition to the baseline forecasts of water demand, this study employs two other scenarios for making these forecasts. One scenario is climate change. Climate change can have an impact both on water supplies (availability) as well as on water demand. However, this investigation was limited to water demand aspects. Even here, several difficulties were encountered in making the estimates. One such problem was availability of reliable information on the nature of climate change for the basin and its probable impact on water demand. Therefore, the basis for making these forecasts is relatively weak; additional research needs to be conducted in the context of Saskatchewan (and more specifically, for the Qu’Appelle River Basin) situation. The following results are based on our current knowledge. Effects of climate change on the direct anthropogenic and indirect anthropogenic water demand activities in the Qu’Appelle River Basin are presented in Table ES.2. Since indirect anthropogenic water demands are governed by natural changes in the water supply and policy changes, these demands were made constant at their respective 2010 levels, except for the evaporation losses. If knowledge of future supply of water under climate change becomes available, these estimates would need to be revised.