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Manitoba's Flood of 2011

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Manitoba's Flood of 2011 Manitoba’s Flood of 2011 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Steve Topping, P. Eng Executive Director, Regulatory and Operational Services Manitoba Water Stewardship September 13 , 2011 why was there so much water this year? why this flood was so different than 1997? was this a record-breaking year? Why was there so much water? • Antecedent Soil Moisture – April-October 2010 • Snow Moisture, Density and Depth •2010 was the 5th wettest September through February on record following the first wettest on record (2009) and 3rd wettest (2010). October 26-28th 2010 Why was there so much water? • Antecedent Soil Moisture – April-October 2010 • Snow Moisture, Density and Depth • Geography Snow Pack 2011 •Snowfall totals 75 to 90 inches, nearly double the climatological average. Newdale: 6-7 ft snow depth Why was there so much water? • Antecedent Soil Moisture – April-October 2010 • Snow Moisture, Density and Depth • Geography • Precipitation this Spring Why was there so much water? • Antecedent Soil Moisture – April-October 2010 • Snow Moisture, Density and Depth • Geography • Precipitation this Spring • Storm events at the wrong time •15th year of current wet cycle, resulting in very little storage in the soils Why was there so much water? • Antecedent Soil Moisture – April-October 2010 • Snow Moisture, Density and Depth • Geography • Precipitation this Spring • Storm events at the wrong time • Many watersheds flooding simultaneously May Sun Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Pre-Flood Preparation • Supplies and Equipment • 3 amphibex icebreakers • 7 ice cutting machines • 3 amphibious ATVs • 3 million sandbags • 30,000 super sandbags • 3 sandbagging units (total of 6) • 24 heavy duty steamers (total of 61) • 43 km of cage barriers • 21 mobile pumps (total of 26) • 72 km of water filled barriers • and much more.... Focus on Ice Breaking, Cutting and Clearing Focus on Ice Breaking, Cutting and Clearing Focus on Ice Breaking, Cutting and Clearing Focus on Ice Breaking, Cutting and Clearing Assiniboine River Dikes – Massive Effort to Reinforce Assiniboine River Dikes – Massive Effort to Reinforce Assiniboine River Dikes – Massive Effort to Reinforce Early April cfs Red River Pembina River 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0 06/Apr James Ave reachesAve Ice James 13/Apr 20/Apr 27/Apr 04/May 11/May - 18/May InducedPeakft April at9 20.74 25/May 01/Jun 08/Jun 15/Jun 22/Jun 29/Jun 06/Jul th 13/Jul 20/Jul 27/Jul 60,000 Red and Pembina Rivers beginning to react 50,000 Red River – 6th largest 40,000 flood in Winnipeg on cfs record, and 3rd highest 30,000 since 1969. Just behind 20,000 •1826 •1852 10,000 •1861 •1997 •2009 0 06/Jul 13/Jul 20/Jul 27/Jul 06/Apr 13/Apr 20/Apr 27/Apr 01/Jun 08/Jun 15/Jun 22/Jun 29/Jun 04/May 11/May 18/May 25/May 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0 cfs 06/Apr 13/Apr 20/Apr 27/Apr 04/May 11/May 18/May 25/May 01/Jun 08/Jun 15/Jun 22/Jun 29/Jun 06/Jul 13/Jul 20/Jul 27/Jul 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0 cfs 06/Apr 13/Apr 20/Apr 27/Apr 04/May 11/May 18/May 25/May 01/Jun 08/Jun 15/Jun 22/Jun Icelandic River Icelandic Whitemud Pembina Red River mid April 29/Jun 06/Jul River 13/Jul River 20/Jul 27/Jul 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0 cfs 06/Apr Whitemud 13/Apr 20/Apr 27/Apr River Rises 3 ft, Hospital Evacuated in Gladstone 04/May 11/May 18/May 25/May 01/Jun 08/Jun 15/Jun 22/Jun 29/Jun 06/Jul 13/Jul 20/Jul 27/Jul 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0 cfs 06/Apr Roads Impacted by Flooding by Impacted Roads 13/Apr 20/Apr 27/Apr Over 750 roads affected or closed due closed or to flooding 750 roads Over affected 04/May 11/May 18/May 25/May 01/Jun 08/Jun 15/Jun 22/Jun 29/Jun 06/Jul 13/Jul 20/Jul 27/Jul Water levels in Rock Lake Historic Peak – 1339.92 ft April 13 cfs cfs Late April cfs Red River Pembina River Souris River Pipestone Creek Saskatchewan River Shellmouth Reservoir Portage Reservoir 15-Apr 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 647 500 37 15 0 Evacuees Road Closures States of Emergency nd Souris River Begins 2 Crest – Westhope Record Crest ?? cfs Souris River at Melita looking southeast April 22, 2011 cfs Ice Pan on Assiniboine River – Assiniboine Dikes Damaged cfs Ice Pan on Assiniboine River – Fear of Surge in Winnipeg cfs Works in Saskatchewan and Carrot River near The Pas cfs April 26 – Ice Still on Most Lakes cfs NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response MWS Starts Reporting on Risk of Ice Pile-Up on Lakes cfs Assiniboine River – Very High & Climbing Higher cfs May 1- May 14 PROVINCE-WIDE FLOODING Red River Pembina River Souris River Pipestone Creek cfs Ochre River Turtle River Vermillion River Whitemud River Saskatchewan River Elgin Creek Plum Creek Little Saskatchewan River Assiniboine River at Russle, Griswold, Sioux Valley Portage Reservoir Shellmouth Reservoir Portage Reservoir Another Major Storm – 50 mm of precip in Roblin, more to come cfs 01-May 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1879 1500 1000 709 500 23 0 Evacuees Road Closures States of Emergency Assiniboine River Dikes in Bad Shape cfs Assiniboine River Dikes in Bad Shape cfs Canadian Armed Forces Called In to Help cfs Canadian Armed Forces Called in to Help cfs Portage Diversion Reaches 10,000 cfs Above Capacity cfs Portage Diversion Reaches 10,000 cfs Above Capacity cfs Portage Diversion Reaches 10,000 cfs Above Capacity cfs Portage Diversion Reaches 10,000 cfs Above Capacity cfs Assiniboine River Inundating Homes Between Portage and Wpg cfs Serious Decision Making cfs 15-May 4000 3603 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 842 500 23 0 Evacuees Road Closures States of Emergency ac 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 - ft - Total Volume of Water Flowing Down the Assiniboine Betweenthe River Down Flowing Water of Volume Total 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 andApril July Annually 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 ac 8,339,917 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 - 2004 ft 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 Serious Decision Making Portage Reservoir May 11 Forecast: 54,000 normal conditions - 56,000 cfs upper decile May 14 Actual: 52,300 cfs (within 3% of n.c. forecast) cfs Assiniboine River Portage Diversion Actual: 18-19,000 cfs Actual: 34,000 cfs If we get the upper decile, where will the remaining 3,000 cfs go? Serious Decision Making #5 #4 #3 #2 #1 Media Attention cfs MWS Favourite Part of Flood - Media National News cfs Hoop and Holler cfs Hoop and Holler cfs Hoop and Holler cfs Hoop and Holler cfs Water levels begin to decline....really? cfs Brandon cfs News Changes For Awhile... cfs May 27 – June 1 storms cfs Lakes Inundate Land Lake Manitoba Lake St. Martin cfs Dauphin Lake Oak Lake Lake Winnipegosis Whitewater Lake Shoal Lakes Lake Winnipeg Assiniboine River Souris River May 31 Storm cfs May 31 Storm cfs May 31 Storm cfs May 31 Storm cfs May 31 Storm cfs May 31 Storm cfs Lake Winnipeg peaked at 716.9 feet on July 30th (wind eliminated) cfs Lake Manitoba peaked at 817.15 ft btwn July 12 - 25 (wind eliminated) cfs 06-Jun 4000 3500 3000 2500 2058 2000 1500 1000 835 500 23 0 Evacuees Road Closures States of Emergency Lakes – Inundation, Wind and Wave Damage cfs Developed and Wind Alert System cfs Assiniboine River declines mid-June cfs Major Storm Across Alberta, Saskatchewan and Western MB cfs Upper portion of Souris River Basin Gets Slammed cfs Upper portion of Souris River Basin Gets Slammed Minot, North Dakota Record-Breaking Year ? 1997 2011 MB Emergency 33 days 103 days open Coordination Centre open State of Emergencies 16 102 & Prevention Orders Total Evacuees 28,000 7,165 Sandbags ?? 10 million + Army Personnel ~ 8,000 1200 Assiniboine + 300 Souris Hydrometric crews 4 13 (Prov) + 7 (WSC) = 20 Reporting ~ 1-3 Daily Risk of Ice Pile-Up Reports flood Daily Wind Alerts sheets/day 11 different flood sheets/day at one point Record-Breaking Year - YES River Recurrence Interval in Years of Peak Flow Assiniboine at Brandon* 333 (highest ever recorded) Assiniboine at Portage* 217 (highest ever recorded) Souris at Westhope 213 (highest ever recorded) Souris at Melita 153 (likely behind 1882) Qu’Appelle at Welby 139 (highest ever recorded) Elgin Creek 83 (highest ever recorded) Assiniboine at Russell * 69 (second highest ever) Oak Creek 50 (highest ever recorded) Pembina at Neche 43 (third highest ever) Red River at James Ave* 30 (sixth highest ever) Why this flood was different than ‘97 • Landowners on lakes significantly impacted • 1997 flood much shorter duration • Geographically extensive flood • ‘High tech’ flood management ‐ sat imagery -monitoring networks ‐ ice breaking -real-time information ‐ forecasting -communications ‐ rapid deployment of emergency flood protection equipment Lessons Learned • Preparation is essential – Met with Emergency Coordinators in March – Broke ice early – Assiniboine River dike upgrades – 800 provincial staff dedicated to flood fighting – More monitoring - increase in # of hydrometric crews Lessons Learned • Flood Protection Infrastructure – it works – Shellmouth Dam: Water levels at Brandon on May 1st experienced 11,500 cfs reduction (reduction of 2.6 ft at 1st Street) – Red River Floodway and Portage Diversion: Water levels at James Avenue in Winnipeg on May 4th experienced 36,700 cfs reduction (reduction of 8.2 ft) Lessons Learned • Public wants to know ‘Which day will it peak?’ – But sometimes the peak is longer than one day, or there are multiple peaks.
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