Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in Central & Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans www.globsec.org Author ? Miroslava Sawiris Countries surveyed Research Fellow Democracy & Resilience Center Methodology The outcomes and findings of this report are based on public opinion poll surveys carried out in September and October 2020 on a representative sample of the population in nine countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia. The Poland surveys were conducted on a sample of 1000 respondents using stratified multistage random sampling in the form of computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) due to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. In all countries, the profiles of the respondents were representative of the country according to gender, age, education, place of Czechia residence and size of settlement. For the purposes of graphical data Slovakia visualisation, the results were rounded to full numbers. To improve the readers’ experience, the responses in closed questions with a scale were generalised. For example, a question with options definitely agree/ rather Hungary agree/ rather disagree /definitely Romania disagree was merged to agree / disagree. Table of contents Serbia 04 Introduction 06 How popular is democracy? Bulgaria 12 How popular are authoritarian practices? 18 Rights versus threats Montenegro 22 Recommendations for democratic actors North Macedonia Introduction Key findings Central and Eastern fuelled violence and conflict; emerging digital world. The global pandemic creative enterprises and rampant has only further accelerated these Europe and the and pervasive corruption; economic processes and laid bare the contest Western Balkans opportunities and crippling depression; between democratic and non- Democratic are distinct regions, a vibrant civil society and democratic democratic systems of governance. One third of the Low trust in the main backsliding; robust support for the Much like in the Cold War era, CEE governance is populations living in state institutions each with their own rule of law and the seductive turn to and the Western Balkans remain the embraced by the the CEE and Western represents unique complex populism; a pining for human rights battlefield where these ideological wars vast majority of Balkans sympathise a potential and caustic rhetoric to put marginalised are unravelling. populations living with authoritarian vulnerability historical legacies communities back in ‘their place’. and experiences. in CEE and Western style of governance The robust support of societies The notion that these conflicting Balkan regions In both, decades 1 for democratic governance patterns and perspectives will one Authoritarian sympathizers https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/82419581.pdf contrasts with their overall low of democratic day mould themselves into a coherent 78% of people in the CEE represent a non-negligible level of trust in state institutions, whole, one that sees everyone ‘wake & Western Balkan regions share of societies, with one-third aspirations and averaging 42%, including for up’ from their autocratic dreams and see democratic governance of respondents in the region a yearning to head of state (usually president), embrace democracy is as naïve as understood as a system based on agreeing that it would be good government, political parties break free from Fukuyama’s end of history observation. equality, human rights, freedoms for their country to have a strong and the judiciary. While this and rule of law, as good for their leader who need not bother with the socialist era, low degree of confidence in This historical experience, unique to country. Democratic governance parliament or elections. These important state organs does not including its the CEE and Western Balkan regions, is perceived as more than just beliefs have further geopolitical necessarily entail that people cultural, social will always constitute a framework regular elections and multiparty implications - those open to will be drawn to non-democratic through which attitudes towards values system by the vast majority of the authoritarian governance, for and political regimes, it certainly underscores and democracy will be formed. The population in the region. example, express considerably a potential vulnerability that could underpinnings, experience of socialism was, for many, more negative views of the US be all too easily exploited by by no means entirely negative1 whether than the population at large. have often gone up populist forces. against opposing they experienced it themselves or not. Developments in the post-communist views purporting era, meanwhile, have arguably been that democracy is challenging, with these countries finally unworkable and assuming responsibility for their own Authoritarian paths. sympathisers have ‘foreign’. higher propensity to These transitions and the volatility of the globalising world are often believe in COVID-19 The ‘democratic experiment’ has put in stark juxtaposition against the related conspiracy proven rather resilient, persisting idealized ‘stability’ of past regimes. The theories Support for LGBT+ rights is higher among those over 30 years in conditions that have, idea that there is a viable alternative who do not perceive migration as a threat & notably, been at times inhospitable. to democracy, consequently, has Respondents who prefer rule generation of young adults The democratic journey that continues become alluring to a sizeable subset by strong leader at the expense to be undertaken by Bulgaria, of the population, one present across of democratic governance are Although support for LGBT+ rights, at only 38%, is relatively low across the Czechia, Hungary, Montenegro, North all surveyed countries. In a truly considerably more predisposed two regions, backing increases substantially among those who are not Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia democratic system, such preferences to believe different variations apprehensive about social change. Those who do not perceive migration and and Slovakia indeed has been an need to be acknowledged. This, of COVID-19 related conspiracy liberal democracy as threats indicate notably higher support for the rights arduous one and far from the fairy tale however, is not to say that they need to, theories. Given that the global of sexual minorities, 48% and 47%, respectively. Young people, similarly, story some envisioned. wittingly or unwittingly, be encouraged. pandemic shows no signs of exhibit higher acceptance of sexual minorities, with 50% of those aged 18-24 The democratic transitions of these This report aims to shed light on where abating, such views pose an years old in the region affirming that the rights of the LGBT+ community (e.g. countries, instead, have been democratic strengths and vulnerabilities additional challenge to the marriage equality) should be guaranteed. characterized by ups and downs and lie according to the perspective of management of the health crisis contrasts. These have included, for people living in CEE and the Western in these countries. example, stories of national identity Balkans. These perceptions often find Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in CEE and the Western Balkans in CEE and the Western Between Democracy and Authoritarianism development alongside nationalist- themselves clashing in the postmodern Balkans in CEE and the Western Between Democracy and Authoritarianism 4 5 ? 1 1 Having a democratic political system with 1 regular elections and multiparty system Having a democratic political system with regular elections and multiparty system. How popular Those who are dissatisfied with how democracy works in their country 90% Slovakia is democracy? 53% 86% Democratic governance has overwhelming support across the region, though its buy- Poland in faces numerous headwinds including dissatisfaction with how democracy works in 57% individuals’ own countries, the allure of authoritarianism for some and high levels of distrust expressed towards state administrations and institutions (typical for the regions 82% that are still shaped by their communist past). Montenegro 59% 79% Czechia Democracy in 55% CEE and Western Balkans is seen as 79% less than perfect Romania 70% Although support for democracy averages 77% across the region2, it is 55% of important to distinguish between the 78% Serbia ideal of democracy as a governance respondents 59% system and its less than perfect in the V4 are embodiment in CEE and the Western Balkans. According to The Economist dissatisfied with Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index how democracy 69% 20203, none of the countries surveyed works in their Hungary can be classified as full democracies. 55% Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, countries. Hungary, Serbia and Romania are ranked as flawed democracies while 65% Montenegro and North Macedonia are are dissatisfied with the state of Bulgaria classified as hybrid regimes. democracy in their respective 76% countries. In Bulgaria and North These nuances are, also, to a Macedonia, meanwhile, the proportion 2 Calculated as average of both more narrow certain extent reflected in people’s of respondents who are dissatisfied and more robust definitions of democracy tested in this study. 54% dissatisfaction with how democracy with the form of governance practiced North works in their countries. Over 60% in their country outweighs those who 3 https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/ Macedonia 69% Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in CEE and the Western Balkans in