THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG 香港大學 PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME 民意研究計劃 Tel 電話: (852) 3917 7700 Fax 傳真: (852) 2546 0561 Website 網址: http://hkupop.hku.hk Address: Room 706, 7/F, The Jockey Club Tower, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong 地址: 香港薄扶林香港大學賽馬會教學樓 7 樓 706 室 Press Release on July 11, 2017 HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials Special Announcements 1. Robert Chung, the Director of Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong, publishes the last article of his series “HKSAR 20th Anniversary Series” in his column “Chung’s Blunt Words” today. Entitled “Hong Kong independence is not a problem”, the article advices Carrie Lam to adopt the attitude of “patience rather than rashness” and “no independence” principle when handling matters concerning Hong Kong independence. The article has been published in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words” (www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords). The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media are welcome to re-publish the article in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged. 2. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, mobile numbers are also added to the sampling frame. Since it takes time to conduct further testing, the figures released today by POP are only based on the landline sample. The results of the mixed sample will be released after further testing is completed. Meanwhile, POP also enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. 3. In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. In July 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP. A decade later, in July 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures. 4. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the first CE rating survey of 9 Carrie Lam after she took office. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. Abstract POP interviewed 832 Hong Kong people between 3 and 6 July, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted after the new cabinet of Carrie Lam has taken office shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has increased dramatically by 11.5 marks to 63.7 as compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 52%, disapproval rate 34%, giving a net popularity of positive 19 percentage points, which has also gone up dramatically by 15 percentage point as compared to two weeks ago. Both her popularity rating and net approval rate are at record high since she was elected. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 57.6 marks. His approval rate is 39%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 21 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 40.5 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 41%, thus a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 52.8 marks, approval rate 37%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 14 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only 3 of the 13 are re-appointed Directors, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing have all gone up substantively, by 15, 14 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 10 percentage points. Law Chi-kwong is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 44 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Law Chi-kwong fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Joshua Law, Matthew Cheung, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Sophia Chan, John Lee, Kevin Yeung, Nicholas Yang, Michael Wong, Frank Chan, James Lau and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” or “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-5 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%. Points to note: [1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 832 successful interviews, not 832 x 71.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-5%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. [4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. Latest Figures POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained 10 from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey excluding the 204 testing samples using mobile numbers: Maximum sampling error Date of survey Overall sample size Response rate of percentages[6] 3-6/7/2017 832 71.5% +/-3% [6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected. As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes: Sample size Sampling error of Sample size Sampling error of (total sample or percentages[7] (total sample or percentages[7] sub-sample) (maximum values) sub-sample) (maximum values) 1,300 +/- 2.8% 1,350 +/- 2.7% 1,200 +/- 2.9% 1,250 +/- 2.8% 1,100 +/- 3.0% 1,150 +/- 3.0% 1,000 +/- 3.2% 1,050 +/- 3.1% 900 +/- 3.3% 950 +/- 3.2% 800 +/- 3.5% 850 +/- 3.4% 700 +/- 3.8% 750 +/- 3.7% 600 +/- 4.1% 650 +/- 3.9% 500 +/- 4.5% 550 +/- 4.3% 400 +/- 5.0% 450 +/- 4.7% [7] Based on 95% confidence interval.