Why and How to Trade Butterflies to Beat Any Market by Larry Gaines
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Here We Go Again
2015, 2016 MDDC News Organization of the Year! Celebrating 161 years of service! Vol. 163, No. 3 • 50¢ SINCE 1855 July 13 - July 19, 2017 TODAY’S GAS Here we go again . PRICE Rockville political differences rise to the surface in routine commission appointment $2.28 per gallon Last Week pointee to the City’s Historic District the three members of “Team him from serving on the HDC. $2.26 per gallon By Neal Earley @neal_earley Commission turned into a heated de- Rockville,” a Rockville political- The HDC is responsible for re- bate highlighting the City’s main po- block made up of Council members viewing applications for modification A month ago ROCKVILLE – In most jurisdic- litical division. Julie Palakovich Carr, Mark Pierzcha- to the exteriors of historic buildings, $2.36 per gallon tions, board and commission appoint- Mayor Bridget Donnell Newton la and Virginia Onley who ran on the as well as recommending boundaries A year ago ments are usually toward the bottom called the City Council’s rejection of same platform with mayoral candi- for the City’s historic districts. If ap- $2.28 per gallon of the list in terms of public interest her pick for Historic District Commis- date Sima Osdoby and city council proved Giammo, would have re- and controversy -- but not in sion – former three-term Rockville candidate Clark Reed. placed Matthew Goguen, whose term AVERAGE PRICE PER GALLON OF Rockville. UNLEADED REGULAR GAS IN Mayor Larry Giammo – political. While Onley and Palakovich expired in May. MARYLAND/D.C. METRO AREA For many municipalities, may- “I find it absolutely disappoint- Carr said they opposed Giammo’s ap- Giammo previously endorsed ACCORDING TO AAA oral appointments are a formality of- ing that politics has entered into the pointment based on his lack of qualifi- Newton in her campaign against ten given rubberstamped approval by boards and commission nomination cations, Giammo said it was his polit- INSIDE the city council, but in Rockville what process once again,” Newton said. -
Tracking and Trading Volatility 155
ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page i The Index Trading Course Workbook www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page ii Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Aus- tralia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future. For a list of available titles, visit our web site at www.WileyFinance.com. www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page iii The Index Trading Course Workbook Step-by-Step Exercises and Tests to Help You Master The Index Trading Course GEORGE A. FONTANILLS TOM GENTILE John Wiley & Sons, Inc. www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page iv Copyright © 2006 by George A. Fontanills, Tom Gentile, and Richard Cawood. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. -
How Options Implied Probabilities Are Calculated
No content left No content right of this line of this line How Options Implied Probabilities Are Calculated The implied probability distribution is an approximate risk-neutral distribution derived from traded option prices using an interpolated volatility surface. In a risk-neutral world (i.e., where we are not more adverse to losing money than eager to gain it), the fair price for exposure to a given event is the payoff if that event occurs, times the probability of it occurring. Worked in reverse, the probability of an outcome is the cost of exposure Place content to the outcome divided by its payoff. Place content below this line below this line In the options market, we can buy exposure to a specific range of stock price outcomes with a strategy know as a butterfly spread (long 1 low strike call, short 2 higher strikes calls, and long 1 call at an even higher strike). The probability of the stock ending in that range is then the cost of the butterfly, divided by the payout if the stock is in the range. Building a Butterfly: Max payoff = …add 2 …then Buy $5 at $55 Buy 1 50 short 55 call 1 60 call calls Min payoff = $0 outside of $50 - $60 50 55 60 To find a smooth distribution, we price a series of theoretical call options expiring on a single date at various strikes using an implied volatility surface interpolated from traded option prices, and with these calls price a series of very tight overlapping butterfly spreads. Dividing the costs of these trades by their payoffs, and adjusting for the time value of money, yields the future probability distribution of the stock as priced by the options market. -
Tax Treatment of Derivatives
United States Viva Hammer* Tax Treatment of Derivatives 1. Introduction instruments, as well as principles of general applicability. Often, the nature of the derivative instrument will dictate The US federal income taxation of derivative instruments whether it is taxed as a capital asset or an ordinary asset is determined under numerous tax rules set forth in the US (see discussion of section 1256 contracts, below). In other tax code, the regulations thereunder (and supplemented instances, the nature of the taxpayer will dictate whether it by various forms of published and unpublished guidance is taxed as a capital asset or an ordinary asset (see discus- from the US tax authorities and by the case law).1 These tax sion of dealers versus traders, below). rules dictate the US federal income taxation of derivative instruments without regard to applicable accounting rules. Generally, the starting point will be to determine whether the instrument is a “capital asset” or an “ordinary asset” The tax rules applicable to derivative instruments have in the hands of the taxpayer. Section 1221 defines “capital developed over time in piecemeal fashion. There are no assets” by exclusion – unless an asset falls within one of general principles governing the taxation of derivatives eight enumerated exceptions, it is viewed as a capital asset. in the United States. Every transaction must be examined Exceptions to capital asset treatment relevant to taxpayers in light of these piecemeal rules. Key considerations for transacting in derivative instruments include the excep- issuers and holders of derivative instruments under US tions for (1) hedging transactions3 and (2) “commodities tax principles will include the character of income, gain, derivative financial instruments” held by a “commodities loss and deduction related to the instrument (ordinary derivatives dealer”.4 vs. -
Bond Futures Calendar Spread Trading
Black Algo Technologies Bond Futures Calendar Spread Trading Part 2 – Understanding the Fundamentals Strategy Overview Asset to be traded: Three-month Canadian Bankers' Acceptance Futures (BAX) Price chart of BAXH20 Strategy idea: Create a duration neutral (i.e. market neutral) synthetic asset and trade the mean reversion The general idea is straightforward to most professional futures traders. This is not some market secret. The success of this strategy lies in the execution. Understanding Our Asset and Synthetic Asset These are the prices and volume data of BAX as seen in the Interactive Brokers platform. blackalgotechnologies.com Black Algo Technologies Notice that the volume decreases as we move to the far month contracts What is BAX BAX is a future whose underlying asset is a group of short-term (30, 60, 90 days, 6 months or 1 year) loans that major Canadian banks make to each other. BAX futures reflect the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR) (the overnight interest rate that Canadian banks charge each other) for a three-month loan period. Settlement: It is cash-settled. This means that no physical products are transferred at the futures’ expiry. Minimum price fluctuation: 0.005, which equates to C$12.50 per contract. This means that for every 0.005 move in price, you make or lose $12.50 Canadian dollar. Link to full specification details: • https://m-x.ca/produits_taux_int_bax_en.php (Note that the minimum price fluctuation is 0.01 for contracts further out from the first 10 expiries. Not too important as we won’t trade contracts that are that far out.) • https://www.m-x.ca/f_publications_en/bax_en.pdf Other STIR Futures BAX are just one type of short-term interest rate (STIR) future. -
A Fundamental Introduction to Japanese Candlestick Charting
© Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 1 TRADE LIKE THE FLOUNDER An overview to Matt’s trading style, methods, thoughts, and insights © Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 2 Acronyms and Shorthand Cheat Sheet • PnL – Profit and Loss (P. and L. → P n L) • IV – implied volatility • IRA – Individual Retirement Account • Vol – Volatility (typically, IMPLIED volatility) • DTE – Days to Expiration • Roll – move an option from one strike and/or expiration to a different strike and/or expiration • ATM/ITM/OTM/DITM – At the Money, In the Money, Out of the Money, DEEP in the Money • Legging – trading a piece of a spread by itself instead of the whole spread • Skew – the difference between supply/demand (or IV) at different strikes or expirations • Front month – the shorter-dated contract of a multiple-expiration spread • Back month – the longer-dated contract of a multiple-expiration spread • Opex – Option expiration © Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 3 PART 1 – WHAT KIND OF TRADER AM I? Vehicle, products, time frames, structures, targets, etc. © Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 4 What do I prefer to trade? Ask most people that question, they will tell you what PRODUCTS they like to trade (GOOG, AAPL, VIX, etc.) but before you settle on a product, learn WHAT you’re trading. Things you can trade: Direction (up or down) Volatility (IV vs. HV) Correlation/Relative Strength/Beta (Pairs Trading) Mispricing/Difference in pricing (Pure arbitrage) Order Flow (HFT) M&A/Special Situations (Merger Arb) Almost ALL retail traders trade direction. I primarily trade volatility. -
VERTICAL SPREADS: Taking Advantage of Intrinsic Option Value
Advanced Option Trading Strategies: Lecture 1 Vertical Spreads – The simplest spread consists of buying one option and selling another to reduce the cost of the trade and participate in the directional movement of an underlying security. These trades are considered to be the easiest to implement and monitor. A vertical spread is intended to offer an improved opportunity to profit with reduced risk to the options trader. A vertical spread may be one of two basic types: (1) a debit vertical spread or (2) a credit vertical spread. Each of these two basic types can be written as either bullish or bearish positions. A debit spread is written when you expect the stock movement to occur over an intermediate or long- term period [60 to 120 days], whereas a credit spread is typically used when you want to take advantage of a short term stock price movement [60 days or less]. VERTICAL SPREADS: Taking Advantage of Intrinsic Option Value Debit Vertical Spreads Bull Call Spread During March, you decide that PFE is going to make a large up move over the next four months going into the Summer. This position is due to your research on the portfolio of drugs now in the pipeline and recent phase 3 trials that are going through FDA approval. PFE is currently trading at $27.92 [on March 12, 2013] per share, and you believe it will be at least $30 by June 21st, 2013. The following is the option chain listing on March 12th for PFE. View By Expiration: Mar 13 | Apr 13 | May 13 | Jun 13 | Sep 13 | Dec 13 | Jan 14 | Jan 15 Call Options Expire at close Friday, -
YOUR QUICK START GUIDE to OPTIONS SUCCESS.Pages
YOUR QUICK START GUIDE TO OPTIONS SUCCESS Don Fishback IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION Fishback Management and Research, Inc. (FMR), its principles and employees reserve the right to, and indeed do, trade stocks, mutual funds, op?ons and futures for their own accounts. FMR, its principals and employees will not knowingly trade in advance of the general dissemina?on of trading ideas and recommenda?ons. There is, however, a possibility that when trading for these proprietary accounts, orders may be entered, which are opposite or otherwise different from the trades and posi?ons described herein. This may occur as a result of the use of different trading systems, trading with a different degree of leverage, or tes?ng of new trading systems, among other reasons. The results of any such trading are confiden?al and are not available for inspec?on. This publica?on, in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, retransmiDed, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, broadcast or circulated to anyone without the express prior wriDen permission of FMR except by bona fide news organiza?ons quo?ng brief passages for purposes of review. Due to the number of sources from which the informa?on contained in this newsleDer is obtained, and the inherent risks of distribu?on, there may be omissions or inaccuracies in such informa?on and services. FMR, its employees and contributors take every reasonable step to insure the integrity of the data. However, FMR, its owners and employees and contributors cannot and do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, currentness or fitness for a par?cular purpose of the informa?on contained in this newsleDer. -
The Impact of Implied Volatility Fluctuations on Vertical Spread Option Strategies: the Case of WTI Crude Oil Market
energies Article The Impact of Implied Volatility Fluctuations on Vertical Spread Option Strategies: The Case of WTI Crude Oil Market Bartosz Łamasz * and Natalia Iwaszczuk Faculty of Management, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30-059 Cracow, Poland; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +48-696-668-417 Received: 31 July 2020; Accepted: 7 October 2020; Published: 13 October 2020 Abstract: This paper aims to analyze the impact of implied volatility on the costs, break-even points (BEPs), and the final results of the vertical spread option strategies (vertical spreads). We considered two main groups of vertical spreads: with limited and unlimited profits. The strategy with limited profits was divided into net credit spread and net debit spread. The analysis takes into account West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil options listed on New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) from 17 November 2008 to 15 April 2020. Our findings suggest that the unlimited vertical spreads were executed with profits less frequently than the limited vertical spreads in each of the considered categories of implied volatility. Nonetheless, the advantage of unlimited strategies was observed for substantial oil price movements (above 10%) when the rates of return on these strategies were higher than for limited strategies. With small price movements (lower than 5%), the net credit spread strategies were by far the best choice and generated profits in the widest price ranges in each category of implied volatility. This study bridges the gap between option strategies trading, implied volatility and WTI crude oil market. The obtained results may be a source of information in hedging against oil price fluctuations. -
Options Strategies for Big Stock Moves
1 Joe Burgoyne Director, OptionsOptions Industry Council Strategies for Big Stock Moves www.OptionsEducation.org 2 Disclaimer Options involve risks and are not suitable for everyone. Individuals should not enter into options transactions until they have read and understood the risk disclosure document, Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, available by visiting OptionsEducation.org. To obtain a copy, contact your broker or The Options Industry Council at 125 S. Franklin St., Suite 1200, Chicago, IL 60606. In order to simplify the computations used in the examples in these materials, commissions, fees, margin, interest and taxes have not been included. These costs will impact the outcome of any stock and options transactions and must be considered prior to entering into any transactions. Investors should consult their tax advisor about any potential tax consequences. Any strategies discussed, including examples using actual securities and price data, are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and should not be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Copyright © 2018. The Options Industry Council. All rights reserved. 3 About OIC: • FREE unbiased and professional options education • OptionsEducation.org • Online courses, podcasts, videos, & webinars • Investor Services desk at [email protected] 4 U.S. Listed Options Exchanges Annual Options Volume 5 1973-2017 OCC Annual Contract Volume by Contract Type 5.0 4.5 -
Traders Guide to Credit Spreads
Trader’s Guide to Credit Spreads Options Money Maker, LLC Mark Dannenberg [email protected] www.OptionsMoneyMaker.com Trader’s Guide to Spreads About the Author Mark Dannenberg is an options industry veteran with over 25 years of experience trading the markets. Trading is a passion for Mark and in 2006 he began helping other traders learn how to profitably apply the disciplines he has created as a pattern for successful trading. His one-on-one coaching, seminars and webinars have helped hundreds of traders become successful and consistently profitable. Mark’s knowledge and years of experience as well as his passion for teaching make him a sought after speaker and presenter. Mark coaches traders using his personally designed intensive curriculum that, in real-time market conditions, teaches each client how to be an intelligent trader. His seminars have attracted as many as 500 people for a single day. Mark continues to develop new strategies that satisfy his objectives of simplicity and consistent profits. His attention to the success of his students, knowledge of management techniques and ability to turn most any trade into a profitable one has made him an investment education leader. This multi-faceted approach custom fits the learning needs and investment objectives of anyone looking to prosper in the volatile and unpredictable economic marketplace. Mark has a BA in Communications from Michigan State University. His mix of executive persona, outstanding teaching skills, and real-world investment experience offers a formula for success to those who engage his services. This document is the property of Options Money Maker, LLC and is furnished with the understanding that the information herein will not be reprinted, copied, photographed or otherwise duplicated either in whole or in part without written permission from Mark Dannenberg, Founder of Options Money Maker, LLC. -
Intraday Volatility Surface Calibration
INTRADAY VOLATILITY SURFACE CALIBRATION Master Thesis Tobias Blomé & Adam Törnqvist Master thesis, 30 credits Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics Spring Term 2020 Intraday volatility surface calibration Adam T¨ornqvist,[email protected] Tobias Blom´e,[email protected] c Copyright by Adam T¨ornqvist and Tobias Blom´e,2020 Supervisors: Jonas Nyl´en Nasdaq Oskar Janson Nasdaq Xijia Liu Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics Examiner: Natalya Pya Arnqvist Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics Master of Science Thesis in Industrial Engineering and Management, 30 ECTS Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics Ume˚aUniversity SE-901 87 Ume˚a,Sweden i Abstract On the financial markets, investors search to achieve their economical goals while simultaneously being exposed to minimal risk. Volatility surfaces are used for estimating options' implied volatilities and corresponding option prices, which are used for various risk calculations. Currently, volatility surfaces are constructed based on yesterday's market in- formation and are used for estimating options' implied volatilities today. Such a construction gets redundant very fast during periods of high volatility, which leads to inaccurate risk calculations. With an aim to reduce volatility surfaces' estimation errors, this thesis explores the possibilities of calibrating volatility surfaces intraday using incomplete mar- ket information. Through statistical analysis of the volatility surfaces' historical movements, characteristics are identified showing sections with resembling mo- tion patterns. These insights are used to adjust the volatility surfaces intraday. The results of this thesis show that calibrating the volatility surfaces intraday can reduce the estimation errors significantly during periods of both high and low volatility.