HUD PD&R Housing Market Profiles: Jacksonville, Florida
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HUD PD&R Housing Market Profiles Jacksonville, Florida Quick Facts About Jacksonville By Casey M. Blount | As of September 1, 2017 Current sales market conditions: balanced. Note: All the data in this report are from before Hurricane Irma Current rental market conditions: balanced. made landfall on September 10, 2017, and do not reflect the im- pact of the hurricane and subsequent flooding. A followup report Consisting of three public marine terminals and in 2018 will include data for the period directly following the period a cruise terminal, the Port of Jacksonville is the covered in this report. leading container port complex in the state of Florida. Commonly referred to as JAXPORT, the Overview facility supported an estimated 24,350 jobs in the Jacksonville area and contributed a total The Jacksonville metropolitan area is in northeast Florida and economic impact of $27 billion to the state in includes Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns Counties. In 2013 (The Economic Impact of the Port of Jack- addition to being an important shipping hub, the metropolitan area sonville, August 2014). Approximately 968,300 is home to Naval Air Station Jacksonville; Naval Station Mayport; containers passed through the port during and the headquarters of corporations such as CSX Corporation, fiscal year 2016, up 17 percent from 826,500 in Fidelity National Financial Inc., and Fidelity National Information fiscal year 2010 (Jacksonville Port Authority). Services Inc. The city of Jacksonville, which encompasses 875 square miles in Duval County, is the largest incorporated city in the continental United States by area and the most populous city in the state of Florida, with an estimated 926,255 residents (Census Bureau population estimates as of July 1, 2016). • As of September 1, 2017, the estimated population of the Jacksonville metropolitan area is 1.52 million, an average annu- al increase of 22,900, or 1.6 percent, from 1.35 million in April 2010. Job growth contributed to an average net in-migration of 17,100 people, annually, or 75 percent of total population growth during the period. continued on page 2 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research 2 HUD PD&R Housing Market Profiles Jacksonville, FL As of September 1, 2017 continued from page 1 • From 2008 to 2010, job losses contributed to slowed net in- • Population growth averaged 33,850 people, or 2.8 percent, a migration, which limited population growth to an average of only year from 2003 to 2007, as strong job growth resulted in aver- 14,100 people, or 1.1 percent, annually. During the period, net age net in-migration of 19,650 people a year. in-migration averaged only 5,550 people a year, or 39 percent of total population growth. Economic Conditions Economic conditions in the Jacksonville metropolitan area are strong ed for 78 percent of job growth in the sector as taxable sales after 3 years of job losses during the late 2000s. From 2008 through increased 2 percent from the same period in 2016 (Office of 2010, nonfarm payrolls in the metropolitan area declined an average Economic and Demographic Research). of 17,000 jobs, or 2.8 percent, annually. Nonfarm payrolls expanded • The fastest job growth (in percentage terms) occurred in the an average of 14,600 jobs, or 2.4 percent, annually, during the sub- other services sector, which added 1,700 jobs, or 6.7 percent. sequent 6 years, reaching 646,200 jobs in 2015 and surpassing the The sector, which includes the automotive repair, household previous high of 631,000 jobs, which occurred in 2007. appliance repair, and personal care services industries, benefit- During the 3 months ending August 2017— ed significantly from population growth in the metropolitan area • Nonfarm payrolls averaged 685,700 jobs, an increase of 19,300 during the past year. jobs, or 2.9 percent, compared with the number of jobs during • The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent, down from 5.0 the same 3-month period in 2016, resulting from growth in 9 of percent during the same period in 2016 and far less than the 11 sectors. The rate of job growth in the metropolitan area was high of 11.0 percent during the 3 months ending August 2010. nearly double the rate of 1.5 percent for the nation. The Jacksonville metropolitan area benefits substantially from the • The wholesale and retail trade sector added the most jobs, an presence of several military installations, including Naval Air Station increase of 5,000 jobs, or 4.8 percent. Retail trade account- Jacksonville, Naval Station Mayport, and Marine Corps Support continued on page 3 In the Jacksonville area, 9 of 11 sectors added jobs year over year, with 4 sectors expanding at least 4.0 percent. 3 Months Ending Year-Over-Year Change August 2016 August 2017 Absolute Percent (thousands) (thousands) (thousands) Total nonfarm payrolls 666.4 685.7 19.3 2.9 Goods-producing sectors 69.4 70.8 1.4 2.0 Mining, logging, and construction 39.9 40.5 0.6 1.5 Manufacturing 29.6 30.3 0.7 2.4 Service-providing sectors 597.0 614.9 17.9 3.0 Wholesale and retail trade 103.6 108.6 5.0 4.8 Transportation and utilities 34.2 34.2 0.0 0.0 Information 9.5 9.5 0.0 0.0 Financial activities 64.1 65.0 0.9 1.4 Professional and business services 101.6 106.4 4.8 4.7 Education and health services 102.4 106.5 4.1 4.0 Leisure and hospitality 83.5 84.5 1.0 1.2 Other services 25.5 27.2 1.7 6.7 Government 72.6 72.9 0.3 0.4 (percent) (percent) Unemployment rate 5.0 4.2 Note: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research 3 HUD PD&R Housing Market Profiles Jacksonville, FL As of September 1, 2017 continued from page 2 Facility Blount Island. The U.S. Navy directly employs a combined percent of gross product in the region, including more than 123,000 37,050 military personnel and civilians in the metropolitan area, jobs (Florida Defense Factbook, 2015). An estimated $11.4 billion, or and employment at private aviation and aerospace companies 87 percent of the total impact, occurred in Duval County. such as Flightstar Aircraft Services, LLC and Northrop Grumman Corporation, which account for 1,300 and 1,100 jobs, respectively, Job growth in the Jacksonville area has exceeded is highly linked to military spending. The metropolitan area is also the national rate since late 2012. a popular destination for military retirees, and approximately $1.5 Jacksonville area billion in pension and transfer payments were made to residents of Southeast/Caribbean region Nation the seven-county Northeast Florida region, which includes Flagler 4.0 and Putnam Counties, in 2014. During the same period, the total 2.0 economic impact of the military was estimated at $13.1 billion, or 16 0.0 Largest employers in the Jacksonville area .0 Nonfarm Number of Name of Employer .0 Payroll Sector Employees U.S. Navy Government 37,050 .0 Baptist Health Education and health services 10,500 year (3-month average) .0 Merrill Lynch, Bank of Financial activities 8,000 Percent change from previous America Corporation 2008 2011 2014 Aug Aug 2009Aug 2010Aug Aug 2012Aug 2013Aug Aug 2015Aug 2016Aug 2017 Notes: Excludes local school districts. Data include military personnel, who generally are not included in nonfarm payroll survey data. Note: Nonfarm payroll jobs. Source: JaxUSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Sales Market Conditions The sales housing market in the Jacksonville metropolitan area but less than one-half the average of 15,400 a year from 2004 has improved significantly since the early 2010s and is currently through 2006 (CoreLogic, Inc., with adjustments by the analyst). balanced. The sales vacancy rate is currently estimated at 1.4 per- • Existing home sales totaled 32,600, an increase of 4 percent cent, down from 3.4 percent in 2010. During the 12 months ending from 31,450 homes sold during the 12-month period ending Au- August 2017, new home sales (including single-family homes, gust 2016 and up 69 percent from the average of 19,300 a year townhomes, and condominiums) increased 7 percent, continuing from 2009 through 2011. The increase in existing home sales a trend that began in mid-2012. The number of existing home occurred despite a 53-percent decrease in REO sales, which sales increased 4 percent despite a significant decline in real estate totaled 2,000. Regular resales, which totaled 29,950, were owned (REO) sales, which had an average sales price of $124,900, 58 percent above the average of 11,600, annually, from 2009 43 percent below that of regular resales during the period. The through 2011, while REO sales were down 62 percent from the number of regular resales increased 18 percent, while the average average of 5,275 a year during the same period. sales price for existing homes increased 9 percent. The percent- • The average sales price for new homes was $309,800, up 5 per- age of home loans in the Jacksonville metropolitan area that were cent from $294,200 during the previous 12 months and 19 percent seriously delinquent (90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure) higher than the previous peak of $260,000 in 2006. or had transitioned into REO status declined from 4.1 percent in August 2016 to 3.2 percent in August 2017 (CoreLogic, Inc.).