Pretoki Rek V 21. Stoletju V Sloveniji Rezultati Projekta Ocena Podnebnih Sprememb V Sloveniji Do Konca 21

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Pretoki Rek V 21. Stoletju V Sloveniji Rezultati Projekta Ocena Podnebnih Sprememb V Sloveniji Do Konca 21 Pretoki rek v 21. stoletju v Sloveniji Rezultati projekta Ocena podnebnih sprememb v Sloveniji do konca 21. stoletja dr. Mira Kobold Ljubljana, 12. november 2018 VSEBINA • Stanje voda v obdobju meritev – Medletna spremenljivost pretokov – Trendi pretokov – Sprememba pretočnih režimov • Ocena hidroloških razmer do konca 21. stoletja – Orodja in metode – Rezultati analiz za hidrološke kazalnike (male, srednje in velike pretoke) – Napajanje podzemne vode STANJE VODA V OBDOBJU MERITEV Medletna spremenljivost in trendi pretokov Sava, v. p. Litija 280 230 /s) 3 (m 180 Pretok 130 80 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 srednji letni pretok STANJE VODA V OBDOBJU MERITEV Medletna spremenljivost in trendi pretokov Sava, v. p. Litija 280 230 /s) 3 (m 180 Pretok 130 80 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 srednji letni pretok 10-letno drseče povprečje linearni trend STANJE VODA V OBDOBJU MERITEV milijon m3/leto Kazalec letne rečne bilance Slovenije 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 odtok dotok razlika (neto odtok) linearni trend neto odtoka Kazalci okolja v Sloveniji Upad trendne črte neto odtoka v obdobju http://kazalci.arso.gov.si/ 1961–2016 (56 let): 14 % (2,5 % / 10 let) STANJE VODA V OBDOBJU MERITEV Spremembe pretočnih režimov Sava Bohinjka - Sveti Janez Ljubljanica - Moste alpski snežno-dežni režim dinarski dežno-snežni režim 2,5 2,5 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,5 0,5 mesečni pretočni količnik pretočni mesečni 0,0 količnik pretočni mesečni 0,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1961-1990 1981-2010 1961-1990 1981-2010 Ščavnica - Pristava panonski dežno-snežni režim 2,5 2,0 • Upad spomladanskega viška, 1,5 dvig jesenskega. 1,0 0,5 • Pretočni režimi si postajajo vse mesečni pretočni količnik pretočni mesečni 0,0 bolj podobni. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1961-1990 1981-2010 STANJE VODA V OBDOBJU MERITEV Trend srednjih sezonskih in letnih pretokov rek (obdobje 1961–2013; povzeto po Oblak, 2017) Pomlad Poletje LETO Jesen Zima Trendi srednjih pretokov Statistično značilno upadanje Statistično neznačilno upadanje Statistično neznačilno naraščanje Statistično značilno naraščanje STANJE VODA V OBDOBJU MERITEV Trend velikih pretokov (obdobje 1961–2013; povzeto po Oblak, 2017) Trend največjih letnih pretokov Trend pogostosti velikih pretokov Statistično značilno upadanje Statistično neznačilno upadanje Statistično neznačilno naraščanje Statistično značilno naraščanje STANJE VODA V OBDOBJU MERITEV Trend malih pretokov (obdobje 1961–2013; povzeto po Oblak, 2017) Trend najmanjših letnih 30-dnevnih pretokov Statistično značilno upadanje Statistično neznačilno upadanje Statistično neznačilno naraščanje Statistično značilno naraščanje OCENA HIDROLOŠKIH RAZMER DO KONCA 21. STOLETJA Uporabljeno orodje Programski paket MIKE 11 podjetja DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute): - orodje za enodimenzijsko modeliranje toka vode, - tvorita ga dve osnovni komponenti: hidrološki model NAM, ki vključuje snežni modul, in enodimenzijski hidrodinamični model. Struktura hidrološkega modela NAM (povzeto po DHI, 2014) OCENA HIDROLOŠKIH RAZMER DO KONCA 21. STOLETJA Hidrološki model Slovenije za oceno podnebnih razmer - 81 podporečjih s srednjo velikostjo okoli 226 km2. - 52 točk (lokacij vodomernih postaj) za analizo prihodnjih razmer OCENA HIDROLOŠKIH RAZMER DO KONCA 21. STOLETJA • Umerjanje modela (podatki za obdobje 1981–2010) Kriterij Nash-Sutcliffov umerjanja koeficient modela učinkovitosti modela (NSE) Zelo dobro 0,75 < NSE ≤ 1,00 Dobro 0,65 < NSE ≤ 0,75 Zadostno 0,50 < NSE ≤ 0,65 Nezadostno NSE ≤ 0,50 OCENA HIDROLOŠKIH RAZMER DO KONCA 21. STOLETJA Simulacije pretokov Rezultati Hid. analize, HIDROLOŠKI Simulirani podnebnih P, T, Etp vrednotenje modelov MODEL Q rezultatov Izračuni za 6 podnebnih modelov in 3 scenarije izpustov TP (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Prikazi rezultatov (odstopanj od 1981–2010) za male, srednje in velike pretoke za 3 obdobja (2011–2040, 2041–2070 in 2071–2100). Razponi odstopanj srednjih pretokov ( 2071-2100 2041-2070 2011-2040 Odstopanje (%) Odstopanje (%) Odstopanje (%) -20 -20 -20 20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80 0 0 0 Porečje Mure Porečje 1140 1140 1140 1220 1220 1220 1260 1260 1260 1355 1355 1355 2250 2250 2250 Porečje Drave Porečje 2390 2390 2390 2530 2530 2530 2640 2640 2640 2719 2719 2719 2754 2754 2754 M1 2880 2880 2880 2900 2900 2900 3080 3080 3080 3250 3250 3250 M2 Sava 3465 3465 3465 3570 3570 3570 3650 3650 3650 3725 3725 3725 M3 3850 3850 3850 4050 4050 4050 4120 4120 4120 4200 4200 4200 M4 Pritoki Save Pritoki 4230 4230 4230 4298 4298 4298 4400 4400 4400 4695 4695 4695 M5 4740 4740 4740 4770 4770 4770 4820 4820 4820 sQs Ljubljanica 4850 4850 4850 M6 4860 4860 4860 5078 5078 5078 6060 6060 6060 ) po postajah, RCP4.5 6200 6200 6200 Savinja 6210 6210 6210 MEDIANA 6340 6340 6340 6550 6550 6550 6720 6720 6720 6790 6790 6790 Krka 7060 7060 7060 7160 7160 7160 Porečje Soče Porečje 8060 8060 8060 8080 8080 8080 8180 8180 8180 8450 8450 8450 8500 8500 8500 8565 8565 8565 Jadranske reke Jadranske 8590 8590 8590 9030 9030 9030 9050 9050 9050 9210 9210 9210 9300 9300 9300 Ocena sprememb srednjega pretoka zmerno optimističen scenarij (RCP4.5) pesimističen scenarij (RCP8.5) Odklon glede na obdobje 1981–2100 Zanesljivost Odklon glede na obdobje 1981–2100 Zanesljivost 2011–2040 2011–2040 2011–2040 2011–2040 2041–2070 2041–2070 2041–2070 2041–2070 2071–2100 2071–2100 2071–2100 2071–2100 nizka ni visoka nizka ni visoka spremembe spremembe Časovni potek spremembe srednjega pretoka • Večjih sprememb srednjih letnih pretokov v Sloveniji v primerjavi z obdobjem 1981–2010 ni pričakovati. • Izjema je severovzhod, kjer bi se pretoki v primeru zmerno optimističnega scenarija do konca stoletja lahko povečali do 30 %. Ocena sprememb srednjih letnih konic zmerno optimističen scenarij (RCP4.5) pesimističen scenarij (RCP8.5) Odklon glede na obdobje 1981–2100 Zanesljivost Odklon glede na obdobje 1981–2100 Zanesljivost 2011–2040 2011–2040 2011–2040 2011–2040 2041–2070 2041–2070 2041–2070 2041–2070 2071–2100 2071–2100 2071–2100 2071–2100 nizka ni visoka nizka ni visoka spremembe spremembe Časovni potek spremembe srednjih letnih konic • Srednje letne konice se bodo po vseh scenarijih izpustov v primerjavi z obdobjem 1981–2010 povečale povsod po državi, v povprečju od 20 do 30 %. • Povečanje se od bližnje prihodnosti proti koncu stoletja stopnjuje. • Največje povečanje letnih konic bo na severovzhodu države (v primeru zmerno optimističnega scenarija izpustov do približno 30 %). • V primeru pesimističnega scenarija izpustov bo povečanje proti koncu stoletja med 20 in 40 % na skoraj vseh vodomernih postajah. Ocena sprememb srednjih malih pretokov zmerno optimističen scenarij (RCP4.5) pesimističen scenarij (RCP8.5) Odklon glede na obdobje 1981–2100 Zanesljivost Odklon glede na obdobje 1981–2100 Zanesljivost 2011–2040 2011–2040 2011–2040 2011–2040 2041–2070 2041–2070 2041–2070 2041–2070 2071–2100 2071–2100 2071–2100 2071–2100 nizka ni visoka nizka ni visoka spremembe spremembe Časovni potek spremembe srednjih malih pretokov • Spremembe srednjih malih pretokov so prostorsko neenotne in le ponekod v severni polovici države kažejo po zmerno optimističnem in pesimističnem scenariju na značilno povečanje za približno 20 %. Ocena sprememb povratnih dob letnih visokovodnih konic 2011–2040 2041–2070 2071–2100 • Pretoki letnih visokovodnih konic s 100-letno povratno RCP2.6 dobo (Q100) kažejo na povečanje v vseh scenarijih za vsa obdobja v prihodnosti RCP4.5 glede na obdobje 1981–2010. • Večja povečanja se pričakuje na severovzhodu države. RCP8.5 Interval spremembe povratnih dobpovratnih letnihvisokovodnih Interval spremembekonic zmerno optimističen scenarij (RCP4.5) pesimističen scenarij (RCP8.5) NAPAJANJE PODZEMNE VODE • Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na napajanje podzemne vode v Sloveniji smo ocenili na osnovi spremembe vodne bilance. • Za izračun vodne bilance in napajanje podzemne vode je bil uporabljen vodno- bilančni model GROWA-SI (Andjelov in sod., 2013). NAPAJANJE PODZEMNE VODE • Ne glede na scenarij izpustov toplogrednih plinov se bo povprečno letno napajanje podzemne vode v primerjavi z obdobjem 1981–2010 do konca stoletja povečalo v povprečju do 20 %. • Izstopa severovzhodna Slovenija, kjer lahko povečanje preseže 30 %. Hvala za pozornost! .
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