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Povratne Dobe Velikih in Malih Pretokov Za Merilna Mesta Državnega Hidrološkega Monitoringa Površinskih Voda

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Povratne Dobe Velikih in Malih Pretokov Za Merilna Mesta Državnega Hidrološkega Monitoringa Površinskih Voda POVRATNE DOBE VELIKIH IN MALIH PRETOKOV ZA MERILNA MESTA DRŽAVNEGA HIDROLOŠKEGA MONITORINGA POVRŠINSKIH VODA Sektor za analize in prognoze površinskih voda Urad za hidrologijo in stanje okolje November 2013 Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje POVRATNE DOBE VELIKIH IN MALIH PRETOKOV Ve čina hidroloških procesov v naravi se zgodi naklju čno, zato je uporaba verjetnostne teorije in matemati čne statistike v hidrologiji neizogibna za reševanje hidroloških problemov in za boljši opis hidroloških procesov. Verjetnost nastopa dolo čenega pojava predstavlja eno izmed najpomembnejših analiz hidroloških podatkov, kjer na podlagi predhodnih dogajanj napovedujemo dogodke v prihodnosti. Vsak napovedan dogodek (pretok) pa ima dolo čeno verjetnost nastopa. Zaradi enostavnosti in lažjega razumevanja v praksi verjetnost nastopa prikazujemo z njeno recipro čno vrednostjo, to je povratno dobo dogodka. Povratna doba je ocena časovnega intervala med dogodki. Pretok s povratno dobo 10 let je koli činska ocena pretoka, ki se v povpre čju pojavi enkrat na 10 let. Pomembno je poudariti, da je pojav dogodka slu čajen, saj se v kronološkem smislu dogodki ne pojavljajo vsakih 10 let, ampak pri čakujemo, da se bo dogodek pojavil 10- krat v 100 letih, ali v povpre čju vsakih 10 let. Povratne dobe smo izra čunali za najve čje letne pretoke (letne visokovodne konice – Qvk) in najmanjše male letne srednje dnevne pretoke (Qnp). Izra čun je narejen za lokacije merilnih mest državnega hidrološkega monitoringa površinskih voda z nizom podatkov vsaj 10 let (slika 1, preglednica 1). V izra čunih so upoštevana razpoložljiva obdobja podatkov do vklju čno leta 2010. Za ra čunanje povratnih dob smo uporabili Pearson III in Log Pearson III porazdelitveni funkciji, ki sta v hidrološki praksi najpogosteje uporabljeni metodi. Spadata med troparametrske Gama funkcije, katera izhaja iz eksponentne porazdelitve. Pri povratnih dobah velikih pretokov objavljamo tudi podatke iz hidroloških študij in hidravli čnih izra čunov, s katerimi razpolagamo na ARSO, Uradu za hidrologijo in staje okolja. Za vodomerne postaje, ki so bile obravnavane v Hidrološki študiji srednje Save (IzVRS, 2012), so podatki za povratne dobe velikih pretokov v celoti povzeti iz te študije. Za vodomerne postaje, za katere so bili izdelani hidravli čni izra čuni gladin v okviru projekta BOBER (Nadgradnja sistema za spremljanje in analiziranje stanja vodnega okolja v Sloveniji), so dodani izra čuni iz projektne dokumentacije IDZ (idejne zasnove) za zgradnjo in posodobitev vodomernih postaj državnega hidrološkega monitoringa. V preglednicah so za vsako merilno mesto (vodomerno postajo) za letne visokovodne konice (Qvk) podani pretoki za povratne dobe 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 1 Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje 300, 500 in 1000 let, kar ustreza verjetnostim nastopa dogodka 0,5, 0,2, 0,1, 0,05, 0,033, 0,02, 0,01, 0,0033, 0,002 in 0,001. Za najmanjše male letne srednje dnevne pretoke (Qnp) so podani pretoki za povratne dobe 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 100 in 1000 let, kar ustreza verjetnostim nastopa dogodka 0,5, 0,2, 0,1, 0,05, 0,04, 0,02, 0,01 in 0,001. Razlika pri prikazanih povratnih dobah je zaradi nadgradnje programa za izra čun povratnih dob, saj se je pri najve čjih letnih pretokih izkazala potreba po izra čunih povratnih dob za 30, 300 in 500 let, zaradi česar so bili prera čuni za velike pretoke ponovljeni, ne pa tudi za male pretoke. Pri interpretaciji izra čunanih pretokov moramo upoštevati obdobje meritev: čim daljše je to obdobje, tem boljše so ocene pretokov za daljše povratne dobe. Izra čun pretokov s povratno dobo 1000 let presega meje obi čajnih izra čunov, oziroma so dobljene vrednosti mo čno pogojene z izbiro porazdelitvene funkcije. Ker pa se v inženirski praksi pojavljajo zahteve tudi po teh vrednostih, jih v preglednicah tudi podajamo. 2 Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje unupovratnihdob č oringa površinskih voda,oringa izra upoštevana v Slika 1: mestadržavnega Merilna hidrološkega monit 3 Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje Preglednica 1: Seznam postaj s prispevno površino, stacionažo in geografskimi koordinatami Stacionaža Kota "0" Šifra Postaja Vodotok (km) F (km 2) GKX (m) GKY (m) LON LAT (m.n.v.) Gornja 1060 Radgona I Mura 106.64 10197.20 171284 576509 16.00025349 46.6815096 202.338 1070 Petanjci Mura 100.47 10391.44 167710 581070 16.05924412 46.6488209 193.763 1100 Cankova Ku čnica 8.90 30.40 174623 578454 16.02624664 46.7113225 206.143 1140 Pristava I Ščavnica 5.78 272.54 153470 594880 16.23672603 46.5189107 169.768 1165 Nuskova Ledava 64.60 56.57 185645 578785 16.03246828 46.8104373 232.149 1190 Domajinci Ledava 57.37 108.29 179120 579870 16.04554761 46.7516098 1220 Polana I Ledava 44.33 208.21 171082 587362 16.14207676 46.6783642 191.399 1260 Čentiba Ledava 11.54 861.69 155645 613705 16.48255856 46.5355587 154.670 1300 Martjanci Martjanski potok 4.16 28.11 172058 591099 16.1911127 46.686646 189.340 1310 Kobilje Kobiljski potok 17.85 48.66 172590 606645 16.39444171 46.6891352 183.810 1335 Središ če Ivanjševski potok 26.75 8.24 181508 600580 16.31711215 46.7702925 228.620 1355 Hodoš I Velika Krka 0.62 107.14 186450 602090 16.33798182 46.8145163 224.820 2010 HE Dravograd Drava 428.82 12071.30 160290 501800 15.02349159 46.586959 2080 Maribor Drava 364.41 13444.80 157020 549870 15.65047434 46.5556895 246.302 2110 Ptuj Drava 335.38 13664.10 141795 567055 15.87240928 46.4172186 214.620 2150 Borl Drava 322.25 14661.50 136808 577009 16.0010747 46.3712912 201.486 2220 Črna Meža 29.00 94.77 147383 488729 14.85321691 46.4707325 573.416 2240 Podklanc I Meža 2.74 309.54 158390 501470 15.01917877 46.5698642 340.866 2250 Otiški Vrh I Meža 1.35 550.89 159305 502357 15.03075592 46.5780946 333.966 2370 Dovže I Mislinja 19.19 72.59 145640 511980 15.15597162 46.455037 517.389 2390 Otiški Vrh I Mislinja 1.68 230.89 158167 503225 15.04207432 46.5678515 344.735 2420 Stari Trg I Suhodolnica 1.68 59.21 151154 505936 15.07735316 46.5047315 404.853 2430 Muta I Bistrica 0.64 146.55 163144 512910 15.16856616 46.6125167 325.757 2530 Ruta Radoljna 0.54 74.14 157270 532840 15.42837091 46.5589862 298.945 2600 Zre če Dravinja 63.70 41.43 137381 529858 15.38819973 46.38017 305.723 2620 Lo če Dravinja 48.78 175.08 128725 538400 15.49854657 46.3018544 266.460 2640 Makole Dravinja 30.60 301.52 130796 551997 15.67529452 46.3195824 240.220 2652 Videm Dravinja 4.16 764.00 136428 569843 15.90787648 46.3686498 209.044 2670 Draža Vas Oplotnica 0.40 85.53 131410 538330 15.49785683 46.3260175 276.049 2719 Podlehnik I Rogatnica 3.86 57.26 132420 568000 15.88334143 46.3327774 223.262 2754 Tržec Polskava 0.78 188.27 135886 567933 15.8829732 46.3639679 214.315 2830 Ranca Pesnica 50.87 83.80 161940 552580 15.68637779 46.5997487 250.270 2880 Go čova Pesnica 32.42 281.14 157341 566968 15.87351369 46.557092 224.460 2900 Zamušani I Pesnica 9.86 477.80 141640 579855 16.0388897 46.4144327 201.856 3010 Podkoren Sava Dolinka 945.82 30.22 150425 404650 13.75777336 46.4914523 833.609 3015 Kranjska Gora Sava Dolinka 942.70 44.98 150120 407580 13.79599745 46.4891167 790.529 3060 Jesenice Sava Dolinka 919.45 257.56 143744 427697 14.05901972 46.4342121 566.433 3080 Blejski Most Sava Dolinka 906.23 505.40 136305 433785 14.13929505 46.3679079 427.946 3180 Podhom Radovna 3.80 166.79 139229 430058 14.09041837 46.39384 566.067 3200 Sveti Janez Sava Bohinjka 32.80 93.99 126620 414565 13.89126526 46.2786242 524.948 3220 Soteska Sava Bohinjka 16.90 288.19 128680 426230 14.04230192 46.2985255 478.241 3250 Bodeš če Sava Bohinjka 1.42 363.91 133450 434315 14.14658354 46.3422728 413.897 3260 Ukanc Savica 0.72 66.71 126981 410175 13.83423674 46.2813052 528.830 3300 Stara Fužina II Mostnica 0.54 74.26 127124 414773 13.89387283 46.2831845 527.140 Bohinjska 3320 Bistrica Bistrica 0.40 126031 419451 13.95476317 46.2739223 504.330 3420 Radovljica I Sava 900.95 907.97 133220 436120 14.17006389 46.3403761 408.086 4 Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje Stacionaža Kota "0" Šifra Postaja Vodotok (km) F (km 2) GKX (m) GKY (m) LON LAT (m.n.v.) 3465 Okroglo Sava 881.73 1201.48 123760 447916 14.32435453 46.2562689 355.702 3530 Medno Sava 860.51 2201.45 108860 457130 14.44522486 46.1228436 300.273 3570 Šentjakob Sava 847.10 2284.80 104515 468075 14.58715027 46.0843459 268.185 3650 Litija I Sava 818.65 4821.43 101285 486670 14.82770685 46.0558963 230.444 3725 Hrastnik Sava 793.50 5176.79 108630 507381 15.0955152 46.1220803 193.850 3850 Čatež I Sava 736.70 10186.45 83402 547709 15.61484912 45.8934486 137.279 4025 Ovsiše I Lipnica 0.98 55.83 127560 442640 14.25545578 46.2900343 380.854 4050 Preska Tržiška Bistrica 11.17 121.00 135100 446470 14.30430662 46.3581881 488.734 4110 Trži č I Mošenik 0.83 38.80 136240 447100 14.31236501 46.3684947 523.762 4120 Kokra I Kokra 18.01 112.34 129206 461770 14.50362134 46.306192 522.847 4155 Kranj II Kokra 1.09 220.23 122304 450983 14.36428917 46.2433964 356.952 4200 Suha I Sora 7.98 566.34 113319 448320 14.33073699 46.1623547 329.470 4206 Medvode I Sora 0.62 642.86 111040 454530 14.4113714 46.1422909 308.646 4222 Žiri III Poljanska Sora 30.10 54.40 100323 431241 14.11146592 46.0439158 474.805 4230 Zminec Poljanska Sora 2.55 305.51 112341 445539 14.29483778 46.1533384 343.313 4270 Železniki Selška Sora 17.19 104.10 120100 435710 14.16652974 46.2222934 447.397 4298 Vešter Selška Sora 2.71 213.76 114477 445177 14.28990373 46.1725285 358.186 Kamniška 4400 Kamnik I Bistrica 19.54 194.78 120070 470525 14.61786502 46.224423 370.799 Kamniška 4430 Vir Bistrica 9.58 207.78 111581 469802 14.60903366 46.148006 301.203 4480 Nevlje
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