How to back up Hacking your Space hoppers a country brain in orbit TechnologyQuarterly March 7th 2015

Green food from Silicon Valley Tech firms start cooking up sustainable produce

20150307_TQ_MARCH.indd 1 23/02/2015 11:21 The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 Monitor 1

Contents

On the cover Silicon Valley-funded startups are moving into the sustainable food business. Their idea is to disrupt the industry by using plant protein to mimic meat and dairy products—and provide a taste which is as good, if not better than, animal-derived produce, page 11 How to back up a country

Monitor 1 How to back up a country in case of a cyber-attack, DIY mobile networks, medical Internet security: To protect itself from attack, Estonia is finding ways to diagnostics by smartphone, back up its data rounding up oil slicks, protecting health-care workers IPING a country offthe map is one sions and propaganda attacks are a con- against infection from Ebola, Wthing. Wiping its data is another. stant headache. speech-recognition technology Estonians know what the former is like. Estonia’s first dry run ofdigital continu- and self-cleaning surfaces They are determined to avoid the latter. ity, carried out in September last year in Just as computer users backup their lap- conjunction with Microsoft, had several Difference engine tops in case they breakor are lost, Estonia elements. One was to maintain e-govern- 7 The little engine that could is working out how to backup the country, ment services by using back-up computers Downsizing cars with the latest in case it is attacked by Russia. within Estonia. Ifthat became impossible, turbochargers Estonia has already shown notable the services migrated abroad. prowess in putting government services One part ofthe experiment involved Space rovers online. It has pioneered the use ofstrong the website ofthe president, Toomas digital identities forevery resident, en- HendrikIlves. A digital-savvy, American- 8 A lightness of being Low-gravity vehicles that will hop abling them to sign and encrypt docu- educated advocate for e-government—and around asteroids and comets ments, access government services, and a hate figure for the Kremlin—his website conduct e-commerce. is a likely target forRussian attack. During But the latest project, termed “digital the war in Georgia in 2008, unknown

New food continuity”, is the most ambitious yet. It hackers defaced the website ofthat coun-

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£¤ 11 S ¢alley’s taste for food aims to ensure that even ifEstonia’s gov- try’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili. Mr Tech startups move into ernment is sabotaged it will continue to Ilves’s website was moved fairly smoothly sustainable produce function over the internet, providing to the “cloud”—networks ofthird-party services and enabling payments. The computers—in this case Microsoft data lessons will be valuable to any organisa- centres in Dublin and Amsterdam. Neurostimulation tion concerned about disaster recovery. 14 Hacking your brain Estonia, which regained independence The load and the stress Using electricity to stimulate in 1991after being occupied by the Soviet A more complicated effort involved the your grey matter Union, was the target ofwhat many regard State Gazette—the official repository ofall as the first instance ofcyber-warfare. In Estonian laws. These do not exist in paper 2007 its main websites were over- form. As well as backing up the data, the Brain scan whelmed with traffic from multiple experiment tried to see how accessible it 17 Medicine by numbers sources in a distributed denial ofservice would be in an emergency. It applied two Susan Ellenberg on avoiding attackduring a row with Russia over a war tests: one ofload (ifan unusually large mistakes in an era of Big Data memorial. The episode crippled the coun- number ofpeople were trying to access try’s online banking system and came the sites); and the other ofstress (if outsid- within a whisker ofdisabling emergency ers were, for instance, swamping the sys- services. Lately Russian airspace intru- tem with bogus requests forinformation). 1 2 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

2 The result was broadly a success—the ing someone in the United States might experimenters even succeeded, for a brief actually be cheaper. This is thanks to a planned period, to run services from series ofrepeater antennae scattered outside Estonia. But it also highlighted DIY telecoms through the mountains and providing a numerous obstacles. “It became clear that connection to Oaxaca city, the state capi- no matter how ready you thinkyou are, tal. It allows voice-over-internet calls. you are never ready enough,” notes a draft The cost ofmobile equipment is falling report jointly compiled by the Estonian thanks to open-source systems and a new authorities and Microsoft. Mobile networks: Fed up with the generation ofbase stations that make use One set ofissues is legal. Laws on failings of the big operators, remote ofa process called software-defined radio. personal data, and public expectations of Mexican communities are acting for As its name suggests, this uses software to privacy, are strict in European countries; manage the networkinstead oflots of just as with back-up services forcomput- themselves dedicated hardware. Such kit is now avail- ers, users need to be sure that their data N THE cloud forests ofthe Sierra de able to groups such as Rhizomatica, a will be properly safeguarded ifthey are IJuárez mountains in southern Mexico, a non-profit operating from the state capital. sent abroad. Storing such personal infor- new kind oftree is springing up: the mo- Peter Bloom, its founder, has been in- mation in “digital embassies”—computers bile telephone mast. Unlike most phone stalling the equipment aided by a bevy of in Estonian diplomatic missions abroad— masts in the world these are installed, Italian, Spanish and other engineers. helps as they are Estonian sovereign terri- owned and operated by small, mostly They have been able to do this because tory. But internet law is still unclear. indigenous communities. Providing a Mexico’s constitution gives indigenous Technical problems included the way mobile service in these villages was not community radio stations the right to use the internet deals with addresses—the profitable enough for big telecoms compa- radio spectrum in places neglected by Domain Name System (DNS). How would nies to bother with, unless the locals national concession-holders. Rhizomatica the Estonian authorities ensure that peo- stumped up $50,000. But improvements teamed up with a lawyer to persuade ple trying to reach president.ee, for ex- in software and the falling price ofhard- regulators that the principle also applies to ample, would actually get there in an ware has made it possible to build a local wireless telephony. “Communication is emergency—particularly ifa massive mobile-phone base station for around an essential human right,” says Mr Bloom. cyber-attackwere under way? Sorting this $7,500, which non-profit operators and In the spring of2014 the national telecom out required “extensive manual oper- small communities can muster. regulator awarded Rhizomatica a two- ations”, the report notes dryly. Sixteen communities in this remote year experimental, non-profit licence to Digital continuity would become even corner ofMexico now count on local operate in the region. It also helps that this trickier ifthe back-up operation were to mobile services which cost much less than area ofOaxaca has long governed itself include more complex services. Estonia’s that ofMexico’s dominant operator, under Mexico’s so-called indigenous public and private databases exchange América Móvil, or its nearest rival, Movi- customary practices, which include com- information over a peer-to-peer network star. Eliel López, a motorcycle-taxi driver, munal land and labour-sharing.

called the X-Road, a kind ofinformation says the business he gets using the com- Now that Rhizomatica’s networkis

¢ federation. Users give their digital consent, munity-owned network ¡illa Talea de sprouting new nodes, the communities by using their ID card and PIN, to allow Castro in the state ofOaxaca more than are encountering some ofthe same diffi- one database to get information from pays his monthly fee of40 pesos ($2.71), culties faced by larger operations, such as another (forexample, ifa hospital needs to which covers local calls, and per-minute people from one local networkwanting to checka patient’s status with a health call costs of0.82 pesos to mobiles on other use their mobiles in another area. The insurer). So it is not just the data, but also networks in Mexico. The big networks local networks do not use SIM cards to the software that deals with them, that charge around 3 pesos a minute. identify users, who must register their would need to be exported. Calls to mobiles on other networks can phones with the local network’s adminis- The experiment’s designers soon spot- be dialled using pre-paid credit. But ring- trator. When someone registered in one ted several snags. One was that Estonia’s community visits another they can auto- system uses lots ofdifferent software, in matically use the networkthere, too. At multiple versions, some ofthem out of present they are not charged, but roaming date. That works fine when they just need fees could be introduced. to exchange data, but makes it hard to In December Mexico’s regulator issued replicate the system in the cloud. a plan to reserve some ofthe radio spec- Another was that the architecture of trum for indigenous and community use Estonia’s system is poorly documented, under15-year non-profit licences. This and that rules forclassification ofdata as could encourage more communities to set sensitive, personal, secret or public were up their own mobile services. But the not suitable for digital continuity: “fre- non-profit requirement might dissuade quently only a small number ofexperts outside investors from putting money into understand the workings ofthe system,” such schemes, making it difficult for them the report notes. to scale up. The main conclusion ofthe exercise is In some countries community-based both simple to articulate and difficult to networks form partnerships with in- achieve: the better data and networks are cumbent telecoms firms to provide ser- organised, the better the system is docu- vices at a profit. Endaga, an American firm mented, and the more standardised and spun out ofthe University ofCalifornia, up-to-date the software, the easier it is to Berkeley, set up such a networkin In- backup and restore. That may be no sur- donesia in 2013. In Mexico a similar part- prise to any computer user, but it will be a nership would probably require a change spur to improvement on top ofEstonia’s in the rules. As is often the case, tech- already impressive efforts. 7 Local networking nology moves faster than regulators. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 Monitor 3

Rounding up oil slicks

Pollution: a quick way to contain tremely lightweight plastic boom which oil spills with lightweight booms can be deployed rapidly from a small craft. It is so compact that an experi- INCE the disaster in the GulfofMexi- mental version was delivered in a suit- Sco in 2010 after the Deepwater Hori- case to Ohmsett, America’s testing zon drilling rig exploded, there has been facility foroil-spill response equipment a flurry ofideas on how to clear up oil in New Jersey. The booms tested there spills. Various machines called “skim- usually arrive in shipping containers. mers” have been developed to recover A lightweight boom can be easily oil from the surface. New chemical upset by wind and waves, allowing oil methods have been tried to disperse oil to spill over the top or seep out from and biological ones to digest it. An below. The HARBO system overcomes Italian project even found that coarse this in a number ofclever ways. As it is wool is particularly good at mopping up deployed the top is filled with air for oil. But much depends on how quickly flotation while the bottom is filled with an oil slickcan be prevented from water forballast. To prevent the boom spreading with floating booms. Now an tipping over its cross section is T-shaped. Israeli startup reckons it has come up The wings on each arm ofthe T are with the quickest way to do that. designed in such a way to provide sta- There are a wide variety ofbooms bility in winds, currents and waves. In which can be used as a physical barrier the trials at Ohmsett a 30-metre-long Smartphone to contain an oil spill. The booms can be prototype boom managed to successful- made ofplastic, metal and other materi- ly contain around three tonnes ofoil. diagnosis als. They typically consist ofa solid or The company is now developing a inflatable floating section with a “skirt” way to deploy the boom rapidly. As the hanging below and weighed down with boom weighs just 300 grammes a metre, Medical apps: From exposure to HIV a chain. Such booms are bulky and the operation could be carried out by a to a nasty throat infection or heavy. They also have to be transported small boat with just two operators (as confirmation of a heart attack, the by boat or barge to the site ofthe spill, illustrated below). Mr Ur says it would where a specialist crew is required to take no more than a day to train the phone will know launch the boom into the water. All this crew. As both the boom and the vessel YSOME accounts, one in five Ameri- takes time—sometimes days—which are small and lightweight, the complete B cans use health apps on their smart- gives oil a chance to spread further and system could be installed close to where phones. The apps can also connect to breakup into smaller slicks, making the oil spills are likely, such as ports, and sensors worn on the body to monitor vital eventual clean-up harder. carried on oil rigs and tankers. Being signs, such as a runner’s heart rate. Others The idea which Boaz Ur, the chief near to hand, a rapid-response boom assist with diagnostics, for instance by executive ofHARBO Technologies, and team might prevent an oil spill from using the phone’s camera to analyse the his colleagues came up with is an ex- becoming a nightmare to clean up. colour oftest strips dipped in samples. Plug-in devices are also appearing to enable phones to take biological measure- ments directly. Two ofthe latest can detect exposure to HIV, the virus which causes AIDs, and diagnose other conditions. Samuel Sia and his colleagues at Co- lumbia University in New Yorkhave miniaturised a laboratory-based blood test called an ELISA (forenzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). It detects biologi- cal markers, such as antibodies made in response to an infection. A sample of blood from a finger prickis placed in a small disposable plastic cassette that The equipment was recently tried out The other idea is from Descue Medical, contains reagents necessary for an ELISA. by health-care workers in Rwanda testing a Salt Lake City-based startup founded by The cassette is inserted into the test-device pregnant women, from a single sample of two brothers, Christopher and Andrew itself, which is small enough to fit into the blood, for HIV and syphilis. The results Pagels. They have come up with a product hand ofthe user and contains what is were encouraging and the team are now called iTest. The pair, both biomedical- known as a “lab-on-a-chip”. This, in turn, exploring how to bring their smartphone engineering students, hope to have their is plugged into the phone. An app man- test to market. Dr Sia says he estimates the first test-kit on sale in 2016 after obtaining ages the test and after15 minutes a nega- device itselfwould cost about $35 to clearance from America’s Food and Drug tive or positive result is displayed on the manufacture. An ELISA machine in a Administration. It can diagnose “strep phone’s screen. laboratory could cost more than $18,000. throat”, a nasty infection by Streptococcus 1 4 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

2 pyogenes, a bacterium. The condition diagnose a range ofconditions, says An- looking forspecialist gear he was unable needs treatment with antibiotics. It is most drew Pagels. The brothers say they have to find any easily transportable treatment common in children and young teenagers already developed tests for HIV and units able to contain the virus. In July last and can cause complications, such as MRSA, a bacterial infection which is par- year he asked Odulair, an American com- inflamed kidneys and rheumatic fever. ticularly difficult to treat, and are working pany based in Cheyenne, Wyoming, if Their kit includes a swab that is rubbed on tests for the flu, sexually transmitted they could help. The firm makes mobile against an infected patch ofthroat. This is diseases and a combination test forden- medical clinics. placed into a vial containing a liquid, gue fever and malaria. Another test would Two months later Odulair put a mod- which washes the sample into solution. allow a smartphone to detect troponin. ular Ebola-isolation unit on the market. The vial is then fitted into the iTest device, Elevated levels ofthis protein in the blood The firm says it can be manufactured, which in turn is plugged into a phone. The can verify that someone has had a heart air-freighted and set up within a month. brothers say the device uses a technique attack. The brothers anticipate the main The unit maintains a differential air pres- called voltammetry, which measures the iTest device would sell for about $150 with sure between rooms to help prevent the current in a sample as a function ofthe the test kits available separately. virus from spreading; although not an voltage applied to it. Rapid strep tests are By offering lab-type diagnostics to airborne disease it can attach to particles not new, but usually involve mixing sol- almost any population with access to a which drift in the air. A higher pressure is utions and looking for a visible reaction. smartphone, such devices would be par- maintained in areas reserved for medical The strep test, though, is only the begin- ticularly useful in remote and resource- staffand those awaiting diagnosis. The air ning ofthe brothers’ ambitions. The idea is poor areas. But they are bound to give in each room is purified up to 36 times an to offer a variety ofdifferent test kits that hypochondriacs yet another reason to hour with filters that trap almost all parti- can be used by the same iTest device to fiddle with their handsets. 7 cles larger than a third ofa micron, or three millionths ofa metre, which is smaller than the Ebola virus. Air is also zapped with germ-killing ultraviolet light.

The video doctor The doors in the unit can open automati- cally, allowing a “telepresence” robot to patrol. It displays live video ofa doctor or nurse, allowing them to speakto a patient. The RP-VITA, as the robot is called, greatly reduces the number oftimes staffmust put on protective suits and step inside, says Anita Chambers, Odulair’s boss. All fluid and solid waste, including things like needles and mattresses, is fed into a cylindrical chamber housed in a shipping container. This grinds it up with a macerator and then cooks it with scalding steam under high pressure until all that is left is a sterile greyish powder. Odulair’s isolation unit also incorporates a fogging system that sterilises unoccupied rooms with hydrogen-peroxide vapour. Some hospitals disinfect rooms with remote- controlled machines, such as the Q-10 made by Bioquell, a British manufacturer, Ebola’s low-down on high tech or a robot produced by Xenex Disinfection Services in Texas, which can sterilise a room in ten minutes. Last autumn the UN Office for Project Services in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, suggest- Disease control: Advanced equipment has been developed to help protect ed some governments in Africa might invest in such kit. But only two Odulair health-care workers, but the gear may not be helpful in poor countries isolation units have been sold. Neither ELIRIOUS and occasionally thrashing dealing with the victims. New high-tech was forAfrica or even a country that has Daround, an Ebola patient wracked equipment is now available for use by an Ebola patient. One unit was delivered with acute symptoms may shed as much health-care workers, but in some countries to a contractor working forAmerica’s as ten litres a day ofhighly infectious it may be inappropriate. Department ofHomeland Security and blood and other body fluids, faeces and The Ebola virus is spread by direct the other will soon be sent to Trinidad and decomposing tissue. It makes caring for contact, which can be through the tiniest Tobago. For poor countries such equip- patients suffering from this dreadful dis- piece ofbroken skin or via mucous mem- ment is unaffordable, says Ghana’s Dr ease difficult and dangerous—so much so branes in, for instance, the eyes, nose or Gebe. An Odulair unit to house ten con- that some health-care workers quit their mouth. The source can be contaminated firmed and eight suspected patients costs jobs rather than face another stressful day. blood or other body materials and objects about $900,000—robot not included. A As in all Ebola episodes, preventing in- like needles and syringes. Protective Q-10 comes in at around $53,000 and a fection in west Africa during what has equipment is needed. But when Nichode- Xenex robot at some $100,000. been the worst outbreakin history has mus Gebe, head ofbiomedical engineer- Cost is not the only reason high-tech placed a lot ofeffort on looking after those ing at Ghana’s Ministry ofHealth, started solutions are failing to be deployed in 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 Monitor 5

2 Ebola hotspots. Repairing and servicing restricts gas exchange enough to prevent mechanical and electronic systems is evaporative cooling, so wearers in hot tricky. Sharp metal parts and tools can weather may quickly overheat, becoming slice through protective clothing and into confused or even suffering a heat stroke. skin, increasing infection risks. Local staff, Sweat and fatigue build so fast that staff in unfamiliar with such technology, are west Africa are limited to two or some- sometimes less keen to maintain it, says times three 45-minute sessions in coveralls Agnès Lamaure, a logistics expert with a day, says Hélène Esnault, a MSF nurse Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), a French now working in the Democratic Republic charity which has led much ofthe interna- ofCongo. Dr Sprecher hopes that research tional response to Ebola. by CDC will lead to a more breathable Another difficulty is that Ebola field Ebola-resistant fabric. clinics typically must generate their own In the past decade latex gloves have electricity. Assessing the value ofa system largely been replaced by those made with or device therefore involves taking into nitrile, a synthetic rubber that better re- account not just its cost, but also the pre- sists disintegrating in chlorine disinfec- cious power it will consume, Ms Lamaure tants. Goggles are increasingly designed adds. The most practical way to vaporise with ventilation slits not placed on the disinfectants at Ebola centres in Africa is top, lest sweat or rain wash contaminants with hand-pumped sprayers typically into the eyes. And surgical masks are now used for garden pesticides. And rather more widely used in Africa’s poorest than import a machine to destroy infected countries because their cost has dropped material, which could cost $300,000, some 75% in the past15 years, says Juan Ebola centres burn their waste in pits Martínez Hernández, an epidemiologist Watch what which are sealed and covered in concrete. and Ebola expert based in Madrid. Surgical masks, however, lose effective- On with the scrubs ness when soaked with sweat. More you say Nevertheless, some new technology is expensive “duckbill” designs that pro- helping in west Africa, where the number trude from the face workbetter. MSF is ofcases has fallen, but the disease is hang- field testing a handful ofrespirators, Speech recognition: Better ing on. The bible on stopping transmission which are powered by a battery pack automated acquisition of speech in poor countries was formany years a worn on the belt. Filtered air is supplied may be more about seeing than it is 1998 report by the World Health Organisa- via a rubber hose into a hood with a plas- about hearing tion and America’s Centres forDisease tic visor. More air is delivered than can be Control and Prevention (CDC) entitled inhaled, so pressure under the hood is F HE were proven to be malfunction-

“Infection Control for £iral Haemorrhagic slightly higher than that outside, which “Iing, I wouldn’t see how we’d have Fevers in the African Health Care Setting”. helps to keep particles out. any choice but disconnection.” In the film It enshrined a “sort oflowest common At about $1,600 apiece, few “positive- “2001” (pictured above), FrankPoole, an denominator” realism based on what was air-pressure respirators” are used in west astronaut played by Gary Lockwood, widely available rather than most appro- Africa. And wearing them can have conse- considers what should be done with HAL, priate, says Armand Sprecher, an MSF quences, says Dr Martínez Hernández. He the homicidal computer in charge ofthe epidemiologist. It helped to establish was one ofthe authors ofa letter dis- ship. HAL learns ofhis human masters’ surgical garb as the thing to wear. couraging their use which was published plan to unplug him by lip-reading their But clothing designed for operating in the Lancet. Health-care workers who see conversation through a window—an idea theatres is not the best for, say, collecting colleagues using the respirators are less that researchers and companies are getting corpses lying in infectious body fluids. willing to settle for a traditional passive closer to realising. Their goal is less about Aprons and surgical gowns leave the face-maskeven though, used with care, it spaceship-driving robots and more about wearer’s backmostly unprotected so, is good enough, he says. Many African improving voice-controlled helpers such when squatting to lift a body, material on health ministries do not want to see pro- as Apple’s Siri and Microsoft’s Cortana. their boots is likely to wet the cotton surgi- tection standards “get dialled up” to unaf- No matter how good voice-recognition cal scrubs on their buttocks and thighs. fordable levels, adds MSF’s Dr Sprecher. software becomes, it will always be hos- “That’s an uncomfortable feeling,” says Dr One practical way to prevent infection tage to its sonic environment. Askyour Sprecher. He began working on Ebola and lessen the riskto health-care workers digital assistant to dial a number in a quiet outbreaks with MSF in 2000 several years is to educate the general population about office and it might hear the right numbers. before coveralls made with a DuPont the disease, says Khadija Sesay, head of Try again near a busy road or at a noisy synthetic fibre called Tyvekbecame wide- the Open Government Initiative in Sierra party and you will probably be disap- ly available. Leone. With help from IBM, the group uses pointed. Ifonly your phone could read Tyvekis produced from high-density software to analyse text messages and your lips. polyethylene fibres. These are not woven, phone calls to government hotlines. This Ahmad Hassanat, a researcher in artifi- as most fabrics are, but “flashspun” in a allows maps to be generated showing the cial intelligence at Mu’tah University, in process which involves the evaporation of prevalence ofpeople whose actions risk Jordan, has been trying to teach a comput- a solvent. Although tear-resistant and spreading infection. Eating bushmeat, for er program to do just that. Previous at- waterproof, Tyvekdoes allow air mole- instance, can transmit Ebola. It is unlikely, tempts to get computers to lip-read have cules under high pressure to pass through. then, that the most sophisticated technol- focused, understandably enough, on the This has now led to the wide adoption ofa ogies will play much ofa role in contain- shape and movement ofthe lips as they more impermeable laminated DuPont ing Ebola in Africa, especially ifthe num- produce phonemes (individual sounds fabric called Tychem. ber ofinfected remain high. Ebola has like “b”, “ng” or “th”). Such shapes-of- Coveralls made with Tychem, how- come and gone before, but ifit abates, one sounds are called visemes. The problem is ever, have a big drawback. The material day it will be back. 7 that there are just a dozen visemes for the 1 6 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

2 40 to 50 phonemes in English; “pan” and Scientists investigating such natural “ban”, for example, lookremarkably surfaces have found they exhibit patterns similar to a lip-reader. That makes it rather and structures on more than one scale— taxing to reconstruct words from visemes Out of the groove what is known as hierarchical structuring. alone. Instead, Dr Hassanat has been Morpho wings, for example, are made of trying for the past few years to detect the tile-like structures about a millionth ofa visual signature ofentire words, using the metre long. On each, however, lies a series appearance ofthe tongue and teeth as ofgrooves measuring just nanometres, or well as the lips. Materials science: A simple billionths ofa metre. In some config- His method has had some success. In a treatment using a laser can produce urations, hierarchical structuring leads to a paper published late last year, Dr Hassanat surfaces with the ability to clean reverse effect: an extreme water-loving described how he had trained his system themselves property called superhydrophilicity.

by filming ten women and 16 men of Chunlei Guo and Anatoliy ¤orobyev, different ethnicities as they read passages LIGHTNING strike lasting just a few physicists at the University ofRochester, oftext. The computer first compared these Atens ofmillionths ofa second might in New York, have become experts in recordings with a text it knew, then tried to seem, well, lightning-fast. Elsewhere, using femtosecond lasers to make surfaces guess what they were saying in a second though, nature often gets its workdone in with hierarchical structuring. Unlike video. When the computer was allowed to periods farshorter than that. In recent industrial lasers, femtosecond lasers use the same person’s training speech, it years, scientists’ attention has been caught release their energy in pulses leaving no was fairly accurate—around 75% ofwords by lasers that produce pulses lasting just time for a material to heat up appreciably. spoken for all subjects and up to 97% for femtoseconds—that is, millionths ofa As that energy dissipates, single atoms one speaker. But when the person’s own billionth ofa second—which can act as and clusters ofvarying sizes evaporate off training video was excluded from the flashbulbs that illuminate the fastest the surface, leaving nanometre-scale analysis—just like untrained digital assis- processes in biology and physics. Now bumps and valleys where the laser has tants—the program’s accuracy plunged to femtosecond pulses have shown offtheir removed differing amounts ofmaterial. 33% on average and as poor as15% in some abilities in a more quotidian task: making By scanning a laser beam repeatedly cases (moustaches and beards, it seems, surfaces water-repellent. across samples ofmetal, the researchers are particularly confusing to the system). Nature has plenty ofexamples of are able to cut arrays ofgrooves about 100 Another idea is not to focus on the hydrophobicity, as water-shedding is millionths ofa metre wide (the width ofa mouth. In 2013 Yasuhiro Oikawa, an engi- known, not least the duck’s idiomatic human hair). Within each ofthe grooves, neer at Waseda University in Japan, used a back. But a superlative degree ofit is of though, lies structure at the nanometre high-speed camera capable ofshooting particular interest, because super- scale. That arrangement, as the pair have 10,000 frames a second ofa speaker’s hydrophobic surfaces are also, in effect, shown in a paper in the Journal of Applied throat. This measures tiny, fleeting vibra- self-cleaning. As they shed water, any dust Physics, results in an astonishing level of tions in the skin caused by the act of or dirt on them sticks better to the passing superhydrophobicity on platinum, brass speaking. The precise frequencies present water beads than to the surface. Exposed and titanium. It is not just that water in the vibrations can then, in principle, be to the elements, such surfaces stay clean, dropped onto the surfaces does not stick; it used to reconstruct the word being spo- dry and free ofrust or ice (water does not actually bounces. ken. So far, however, Dr Oikawa’s team stickaround long enough to make either). Dr Guo admits, however, that the team has managed to map the visual vibrations There are myriad applications that have an incomplete understanding of ofjust a single Japanese word. could make use ofsuch properties: aircraft why it works so well. A great many physi- The best results come when a system or power lines that never get icy, and ships cal mechanisms may be involved, and does more than just passively watch. or toilets that never get dirty. The idea is these need to be unravelled. But making VocalZoom is an Israeli startup whose already employed by industry, typically the surfaces is simple, so applications may idea is to point a low-power laser beam at by covering surfaces with polymers to not be long coming. The pair believe it will a speaker’s cheekto measure vibrations, achieve hydrophobic effects. But even the workon any metal and, with some tweak- and use those to infer the frequencies of best ofthese do not perform as well as ing, on materials such as plastics, semicon- speech. The system combines those re- nature’s superstars, such as the Morpho ductors and ceramics. So perhaps a self- sults with ordinary speech audio from a butterfly, the leaves ofthe lotus plant or cleaning toilet that sparkles after every microphone, subtracting unwanted ambi- the garden nasturtium. flush is not far in the future. 7 ent noise or other talkers and leaving just the cheek-wobble frequencies. In January the firm tookits technology to CES, a giant technology trade show in Las Vegas and a notoriously ear-splitting environment, and impressed the tech press. But the system is not yet ready for the mass market. The prototype is still larger than the smartphones it is intended to be built into, and tempting manufactur- ers into adding components to ever-slim- mer, ever-sleeker handsets will not be easy. The company may have more luck getting its technology into cars, another industry increasingly reliant on voice control; VocalZoom claims to be in early talks with a big carmaker. Perhaps the company will, one day, even get its kit into space-faring vehicles. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 Difference engine 7 The little engine that could

Car engines: Downsizing to a car with a smaller engine is being made easier by the latest turbochargers. They can transform a standard four-cylinder engine into a much more powerful motor

RUGAL four-cylinder engines used to The modern turbocharged petrol en- Fbe found only in the cheapest cars. But gine owes much to its diesel equivalent. today they are being fitted to even luxury But there are significant differences that re- models. What has made them more ac- quire design changes. Forinstance, petrol is ceptable—indeed, desirable—is the devel- more volatile than diesel—igniting faster, opment of advanced turbochargers that burning hotter and requiring a lower air/ cram more air than normal into the fixed fuel ratio. Petrol engines are also expected volume of their cylinders, allowing the en- to operate over a much wider range of gines to burn proportionally more fuel. crank speeds, and to respond much more The result is a compact unit that punches rapidly when called upon by the driver to way above its weight in terms of power do so. If turbo lag is longer than a few sec- and torque, a turning force which makes onds, the vehicle can be tricky to drive— that power available at lower revs. These with nothing happening initially, and then engines also provide better fuel economy the boost suddenly arriving with a wallop. and emit less pollution. The reverse is also true. If the turbo- A turbocharger works by tapping the charger does not come off boost quickly hot exhaust gas from the engine to spin a enough when the driver lifts his foot from small turbine which, in turn, drives an the accelerator pedal—which causes the equally small air compressor. For higher throttle to shut off the air flow to the en- performance, an intercooler is sometimes placed between the gine—pressure waves can surge backto the turbochargerand dam- compressor and the engine’s inlet manifold. This lowers the tem- age the compressor. To prevent that a “blow-off” valve, which perature ofthe compressed airand raisesitsdensitystill further. In dumps surplus compressed air into the atmosphere, is fitted be- general, a turbocharged 1.8-litre four-cylinderpetrol engine can de- tween the turbocharger and the inlet manifold. liverthe powerand torque ofa naturally aspirated 3-litre six-cylin- On the exhaust side, a “wastegate” regulates the turbocharger’s derunit. By the same token, a turbocharged V6 can be more than a output by bleeding off some of the hot exhaust gas so that it by- match for a conventional V8. passes the turbine. This makes it possible to match the amount of Turbochargers are not to be confused with superchargers, energy the turbine receives to the amount the compressor needs, made famous by the 4.5-litre Blower Bentleys of the 1920s. While so only as much boost is produced as is required. With their more they serve broadly the same purpose—to squeeze more air into an sedentary nature, diesels avoid much ofthis complexity. engine—they function differently. A supercharger does not rely on Numerous other tricks have been tried to make turbochargers an exhaust-driven turbine but is driven directly by the engine. Su- more responsive. Obviously, the smaller and lighter the rotating perchargers are better in one respect: they do not suffer from “tur- parts in a turbocharger are, the faster it can respond to changes in bo lag” (the time taken for a turbocharger to spool up to speed). the throttle setting. Unfortunately, small turbochargers quickly The disadvantage is that a supercharger robs the engine of power run out of puff. Bigger ones produce all the boost required, but are and, thermodynamically, it is nowhere near as efficient. slow to spool up to speed. A number of hybrid designs have Carmakers started to take turbocharging more seriously in emerged that combine the best ofboth worlds. 2010, after the American government announced that its CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) target would rise to 35.5 miles Two are betterthan one per US gallon (6.63 litres/100km) by the 2016 model year. Turbo- The most popular type today is the “twin-scroll” turbocharger. charged four-cylinder engines typically use 15% less fuel than larg- This works like a pair of turbochargers connected in parallel, one er, naturally aspirated, motors of comparable output. Also, with foreach oftwo separate exhaust manifolds. However, while using an abundant supply of oxygen to support combustion, the mix- a pair of turbochargers reduces turbo lag, it doubles the cost and ture in the cylinders gets burned more thoroughly. The result is a complexity of the installation. The twin-scroll design gets around cleaner exhaust all around. this by having two exhaust-gas inlets and two nozzles feeding a In Europe, where half of all cars and light trucks sold are diesel single turbocharger. One nozzle injects exhaust gas at a steeperan- models, the benefits of turbocharging are well understood. Be- gle to the turbine blades, for quick response, while the other in- cause dieselsignite theirfuel usingthe heatofcompression (rather jects the exhaust gas at a shallower angle, for peakperformance. than spark plugs), they need much higher compression ratios to Having two exhaust manifolds on a four-cylinder engine adds, function. To cope with the greater internal pressure, a diesel’s en- of course, to the cost. But by pairing cylinders so their power gine blockand cylinderhead, aswell asall itsreciprocating and ro- strokesdo notinterfere with one another, the two exhaust streams tating parts, are made much stronger, and thus are heavier. can be injected into separate spirals in the turbocharger, causing it Unfortunately, heavy rotating masses do not like being spun to spin more smoothly. Apart from making the turbine more effi- rapidly. As a result, diesels tend to operate in a lower, more narrow cient, this helps to improve the scavenging of burned gases from band of engine speeds. And because they spin relatively slowly, the cylinders, lowers the exhaust temperature (and thus emis- they neverget enough airneeded to fill the cylinders properly dur- sions of nitrogen oxides) and reduces the turbo lag still further. ing intake strokes, which is why diesel engines have long used tur- Small turbocharged engines mean that farfrom fearingthe depriv- bochargers to overcome their inherent shortness ofbreath. ations ofdownsizing, motorists could be pleasantly surprised. 7 User: iantroy Jobname: TQ8 Zone: UKPB ProofState: Final Proof 3 25-02-2015----13:44 ART CART EDITORIAL READ BY: SPELL CHK:






Space rovers The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

bly be made to work in gravity as low as a hundredth of that on Earth, says Issa A lightness of being Nesnas, head of the Robotic Mobility Group at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. But in the far weaker microgravity of small bodies like asteroids and comets, they would fail to get a grip in fine regolith. Wheels might also hover above the ground, spinning hope- Microgravity rovers: Space vehicles that can operate in the ultra low-gravity lessly and using up power. So an entirely on asteroids and comets are having to employ novel locomotive systems different system of locomotion is needed forrovers operating in a microgravity. FTER hurtling more than 6 billion kilo- As luckwould have it, Philae fell back to Surprising as it may seem, one promis- Ametres through space for over a de- the surface and eventually came to a stop ing form of transportation in microgravity cade, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) where insufficient sunlight could reach its is a space hopper. These machines are probe Rosetta began orbiting comet 67P/ solar panels. The craft managed to deliver nothing like the bouncy toys made popu- Churyumov–Gerasimenko last year. In some data until itsbatteriesran out ofpow- lar in the 1970s-1980s. But they share the November the mother ship released its er 64 hours later. One day Philae might be same idea, because bouncing from one lander, Philae, which appeared to descend revived if 67P happens to move into more place to another has its advantages. to the surface successfully. But elation at sunlight. Even so, the difficulties the mis- the European mission-control centres soon sion encountered help to explain why The first hop turned to concern. Philae had bounced space agencies are putting so much effort No one has yet demonstrated if a space back up again due to a failure of the explo- into designing machines which are capa- hopper will work in space. But in a few sives-powered harpoons that were sup- ble of not only landing on bodies with mi- years that opportunity will arise. A space- posed to anchor it to the surface. The har- crogravity but also travelling around them craft loaded with four robotic hopping rov- poons were necessary because a small without flying offin all directions. ers blasted off from Japan’s Tanegashima body like a comet generates little gravity. Wheeled rovers have long trundled Space Centre on December 3rd. The mis- So little, in fact, that ifPhilae bounced faster across the Moon and Mars, but their gravi- sion, called Hayabusa 2, is being run by the than 44cm per second it was in danger of ties are merely low—a sixth and a third, re- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency exceeding the comet’s escape velocity, the spectively, of that on Earth, which has an (JAXA). The aim is to collect samples from speed that an object needs to be travelling escape velocity of 11km per second. an asteroid called 1999 JU3 and return to breakfree ofa body’s gravity. Wheeled and tracked rovers could proba- them to Earth. The spacecraft will arrive at1 User: iantroy Jobname: TQ9 Zone: UKPB ProofState: Final Proof 4 25-02-2015----13:51 ART CART EDITORIAL READ BY: SPELL CHK:

The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 Space rovers 9

Until they are tested in a real microgravity no one can be sure these rovers will work

2 the asteroid in the summer of 2018 and will undertake. CNES will use spend abouta yearsurveyingit. Itwill then information from the Haya- move in extremely close to fire projectiles busa 2 survey of1999 JU3’s gravi- into the asteroid’s surface. This will throw ty and surface composition to up material which the spacecraft will suck calculate the swing-arm ve- in with a suction nozzle. locities needed for the most With a diameterofonlyabout1km, 1999 efficient hops, says Pierre JU3 has an escape velocity of just 32cm per Bousquet, head of micro- second. To hop across its surface the rovers gravity projects. will use a moving internal mass. The larg- est rover on board the Hayabusa 2 space- In free fall craft is a 10kg cube-shaped machine called The biggest challenge will be MASCOT (forMobile Asteroid Surface Scout, getting the four rovers onto the and illustrated on the previous page with asteroid, says DLR’s Dr Ho. They must be its mother ship). MASCOT employs a ejected from the Hayabusa 2 mother ship weighted internal swing-arm, a bit like a at precise velocities and locations to free pendulum. An electric motor swings the fall to the surface from about 100 metres, gen and nitrogen—elements that were arm around and then suddenly brakes the she adds. Such separationsare tricky, asthe needed forlife to begin on Earth. movement. This jolt transfers inertia to the first Hayabusa mission showed. In 2005 its Asteroids that orbit near Earth can be body ofthe rover, pushing it down into the mother ship released a space hopper easier and cheaper to reach than many surface, which results in the machine named MINERVA 200 metresabove an aster- planets or moons. And because the escape bouncing up. To ensure that the rover oid called Itokawa. That was130 metres too velocities of small bodies are so slow, only drops back down again and does not drift far. MINERVA was not captured by the aster- a little fuel needs to be carried for a space off into space, its hopping speed will be oid’s gravity and floated offinto space. The vehicle to take off from one. Asteroids capped at about two-third’s of the aster- three MINERVA-II Japanese space hopperson could therefore serve as stepping stones to oid’s escape velocity. the current Hayabusa 2 mission are im- get astronauts into deep space, says Marco MASCOT was built by DLR, Germany’s proved variations ofthe lost original. Pavone, a Stanford University roboticist aerospace centre. Besides hopping it can If Hayabusa 2’s space hoppers work who is designing a microgravity space use its swing-arm to tumble over if it lands well such roverswould help to broaden ex- hopper for NASA. The rocks could also be the wrong way up. This is to ensure that its traterrestrial exploration, particularly on mined forelementssuch asoxygen and hy- instruments—a camera, magnetometer (to asteroids and comets. Scientists are inter- drogen to replenish supplies of water, measure magnetic fields), radiometer (to ested in these bodies because they are the breathable air and fuel. measure temperature and radiation), and purest remnants of the early solar system, The space hopperwhich DrPavone and an infra-red microscope (to study miner- unadulterated by many of the chemical his colleagues are working on (pictured be- als)—are all pointed in the right direction. and geological transformations that have low) sports three internal flywheels, one Hopping mechanisms such as these are taken place on planets. Some may contain for each axis of motion. Each flywheel is lighter and less intricate than wheeled and matter that predates the formation of stars. powered with an electric motor, so they tracked systems. And by hopping the rov- Many appear rich in complex organic mol- can reach different speeds. In order to hop, ers do not require detailed information ecules containing carbon, hydrogen, oxy- the inertial energy from each flywheel about the terrain to ensure safe routes. must be transferred to the robot’s frame Even if a space hopper lands on a sharp simultaneously. rock it is unlikely to damage itself, because Some microgravity space hop- in microgravity objects are a fraction of pers using a similar system are their weight on Earth. Hopping known as “hedgehogs” because of also requires less energy than their protective spikes. Once such turning wheels. The equivalent prototype built at the Jet Propulsion amount of power required to run Laboratory (pictured above) uses an iPad for not much more than 30 brakes to stop the flywheels. The Stan- seconds will toss MASCOT 70 metres or ford team are experimenting with an al- so, reckons Tra-Mi Ho, who leads the ternative method that delivers momen- project at DLR. tum more suddenly and with less energy To keep the €28m ($32m) rover small lost as braking heat. It uses a small metal and light enough to be carried by the part to snag each flywheel to an immedi- mother ship MASCOT does not have solar ate halt. Having multiple flywheels al- panels to recharge its batteries. These will lows hops to be more steerable and last for just 16 hours, the equivalent of precise. Benjamin Hockman, a me- two ofthe asteroid’s days and nights. So chanical engineer working on the pro- the rover has to packin a lot of workbe- ject, says hedgehogs could also be used to tween its hops. explore moons, such as Phobos, a Martian CNES, the French space agency, is ana- moon with a tiny microgravity. lysing data on Philae’s ill-fated bounces to A team at the University of Tokyo has better calibrate the hops which MASCOT gone about things in a different way. They1 10 Space rovers The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

such a place because it could double as ity on Earth. Some components ofthe MAS- both the locomotion system and a landing COT system have been tested in a 146-metre

mechanism, says ¥ytas SunSpiral, an drop tower in Bremen, Germany, which Ames roboticist. The structures, lacking uses a catapult to produce 9.3 seconds of rigid joints, are able to absorb large shocks near weightlessness. The Draper Laborato- without damage. Conventional rovers ry, an independent research centre in Cam- dropped on Mars are cushioned with ex- bridge, Massachusetts, tested the guidance pensive, elaborate and heavy airbag sys- and control systems on a space hopper tems. A Super Ball Bot could fall from orbit which it has developed during a reduced- orroll offa cliffand become its own airbag, gravity flight on board a NASA aeroplane says Dr SunSpiral. known as a “vomit comet”. But it will be Yet mobility in a microgravity will only one of Hayabusa 2’s space hoppers that take a rover so far. Sometimes they must may be the first to complete such a mis- stop and analyse samples. The reason the sion, although which rover that will be has Hayabusa 2 spacecraft will fire projectiles yet to be decided. into the surface of1999 JU3 to kick up sam- ples is that drilling is not much of an op- Saving the planet tion. No robotic microgravity anchoring The importance of a successful deploy- system has yet been successfully used, and ment is higherthan you might imagine. For Digging its claws in without one it is the spacecraftor the rover, although they are designed for explora- rather than the drill bit, that would spin. tion, microgravity rovers might one day 2 have built a spherical space hopper that Giving rovers claws might be a solution. save Earth from a catastrophic collision generates motion with electromagnets. Aaron Parness, who works in the Jet Pro- with an asteroid. Many asteroids are com- Four electromagnets are fixed to the pulsion Laboratory’s “extreme environ- posed of loosely coalesced rocks and sphere’s inner wall and a small iron ball is ment” robotics lab has developed a mach- would be hard to push orpull into a safe or- suspended in the centre. Using battery ine which uses hundreds of tiny claws to bit. A paint job, however, might do the power to activate one or more electromag- grip the rough surfaces often found on bo- trick, reckons CNES’s Mr Bousquet. Just as nets results in the ball being pulled across dies like asteroids. The machine (pictured space hoppers rely on every action having to the side of the sphere. This imparts mo- left) is still under development but it has an equal and opposite reaction, light and mentum to the robot’sframe and thusiniti- the potential to climb vertical rock faces heat reflected off an asteroid’s surface ex- ates a hop. If more precision in hopping is and even creep along upside down on ertsa tinypressure. So increasingthe reflec- required then two additional electromag- overhead formations. tivity of the rocks would alter this gentle nets could be used. Such a set-up would Until they are tested in a real micrograv- pushbackand, over time, the asteroid’s tra- also allow the rover to roll along, says its ity no one can be sure these rovers will jectory. However they move, rovers that designer, Yoshihiko Nakamura. work. There is no practical way to fully rep- can operate in extremely low gravity may Rolling is another option for a rover op- licate a mission in a simulated micrograv- one day have a very important job to do. 7 erating in low gravity. One type, known as “structurally compliant” rovers, are de- signed specifically to roll along. These are constructed from a latticeworkofrigid rods connected with elastic cables. Mechanical actuators are used to shorten and lengthen the cables, so that the rovers change shape as they repeatedly tip over in the direction they want to go. Although more jerky than graceful, little traction is needed resulting in a “punctuated rolling motion”, says Al- ice Agogino, a NASA-funded researcher workingon such a project at the University of California, Berkeley. The rovers’ instru- ments and power supply would be sus- pended in the centre ofthe structure. A partner team at NASA’s Ames Re- search Centre is developing structurally compliant rovers they call Super Ball Bots (one of which is pictured right). The re- searchers hope their robots could be used on Phobos orTitan, one ofSaturn’s moons. The two moons differ greatly. With a sev- enth of Earth’s gravity, Titan could be tra- versed with a conventional wheeled rover. A Super Ball Bot, however, makes sense for Rocking and rolling along The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 New food 11

a way to use plant protein instead of ani- mal protein there’san enormousefficiency Silicon Valley in terms of the energy, water and all sorts of other inputs involved—which translates atthe end ofthe dayto savingmoney,” says gets a taste Ali Partovi, a San Francisco-based entre- preneur and investor in tech startups, such as Dropbox and Airbnb, as well as half-a- for food dozen sustainable-food companies. The problem is many people shun veg- etables and prefer to eat meat or dairy pro- ducts. Dr Brown and others think the sol- ution is to mimic the taste of meat and other animal-derived foods with plants and take the animal out ofthe equation. In theory at least, there would be plenty of food for everyone and fewer resources needed to produce it. “We’re reinventing the entire system of transforming plants into meat and milk,” he says. Other start- upshave similaraspirations. Beyond Meat, which makes plant-based chicken strips and beef “crumbles”, is already selling its products in stores. As is Hampton Creek, whose eggless mayonnaise has become a bestseller at Whole Foods Market, a big American chain.

Beyond vegetarianism Of course, the food giants already offer a variety of meat and dairy alternatives that many vegetarians and vegans buy. What is different with this new approach is that the startupsare nottargetingthe small percent- PLANT-BASED hamburger patty that age ofthe population who largely live on a Ableeds. Meatless chicken strips with plant-based diet already. They are after the same fleshy and fibrous texture as Green food: Tech startups are moving people who love meat and dairy products, cooked poultry. Mayonnaise made with- into the food business to make and that means replicating the meaty, out eggs that is creamy and smooth. And a sustainable versions of meat and cheesy or creamy flavours and textures vegan beverage that contains all the ingre- dairy products from plants that so many people crave. “We want to dients for human sustenance, making it have a product that a burger lover would

unnecessary to bother eating ordinary such startup, Impossible Foods, based in say is better than any burger they’ve ever

¢ ¡ food every again. Hungry yet? Redwood Cityin the heartofSilic alley. had,” says Dr Brown.

These are the offerings from a recent It has raised $75m to develop plant-based This is also different from “growing”

¢ ¡ crop of Silic alley-funded startups meat and cheese imitations. meat in a laboratory using tissue engineer- which are trying to change the way people According to the United Nations, live- ing, which involves culturing cells taken eat. The idea ofmaking such products is at- stock uses around 30% of the world’s ice- from live animals. Modern Meadow, a tracting entrepreneurs and venture-capital free landmass and produces 14.5% of all New ¤ork company, is working on this firms who think that the traditional food greenhouse-gas emissions. Making meat technology, although its more immediate industry is ripe for disruption because it is also requires supplying animals with vast aim is to grow unmarked cultured leather. inefficient, inhumane and in need of an amounts of water and food: in the United Introducing a new food category is overhaul. The companies have different States producing 1kg of live animal weight risky as it takes a lot oftime and money. Big

approaches, buttheyshare the ambition of typically requires 10kg of feed for beef, 5kg food firms preferto acquire innovative pro- ¤ creating new plant-based food that they for pork and 2.5kg for poultry£et between ducts rather than develop them internally, say will be healthier, cheaper and just as now and 2050, the world’s population is explains Barb Stuckey, chief innovation of- satisfyingasmeat, egg, dairyand other ani- expected to rise from 7.2 billion to over 9 ficer at Mattson, a California-based food mal-based products—butwith a much low- billion people—and the appetite for meat and beverage consultancy which has de- er environmental impact. to grow along with it. To keep up with de- veloped many new products. “It may take

“Animal farming is absurdly destruc- mand, food production will need to in- someone from outside the food industry to ¤

tive and completely unsustainable £et the crease significantly. really disrupt it,” reckons Ms Stuckey. And

¢ ¡ demand for meat and dairy products is go- It is a big challenge, but also an eco- Silic alley has enough hubris to do so. ing up,” says PatrickBrown, founder ofone nomic opportunity. “Anytime you can find The businesshasalreadyattracted a fair1 12 New food The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

“Change happens by making something so delicious and so affordable, everyone chooses it”

2 share of famous venture-capital firms and investors, including Kleiner Perkins, Goo- gle Ventures, Andreessen Horowitz, Khosla Ventures, Bill Gates and others. “If we can provide [plant-based] food that’s healthier, tastes equal to better, at an equal to lower cost, it’ll go everywhere,” says Khosla’s Samir Kaul. Ifthe companies they are backing succeed, the returns could be massive. The US beef industry alone is worth $88 billion. And even for condi- ments, such as mayonnaise, the market to- tals $2 billion. Still, not everyone is bullish on the prospects. These are high-risk en- deavoursand some ofthem mightfail, cau- scribed the taste of the very first prototype meat has a masculine bent to it. You can’t tions Michael Burgmaier of Silverwood as “rancid polenta”. Recent versions have sell it the same way you sell lettuce,” says Partners, an investment bank involved in been reviewed much more favourably as Mr Brown. Hence the company is building dozens of food and beverage deals. The “better than a turkey burger”. In terms of the brand with images of vitality, fitness question is, he says: “Isthe consumerready nutrition, the patty’s protein content may and health. In promotions it is using ath- for some ofthese products?” be slightly higher than that of a conven- letes. David Wright, captain of the New Impossible Foods’ Dr Brown thinks tional burger and have at least as many mi- York Mets baseball team, has already they are. The inventor of a DNA chip now cronutrients. Because it is made from signed up. In return, he is getting a small widely used in gene-expression analysis, plants, it will not contain any traces ofanti- stake in the company. his firm has been developing meat and biotics, hormones or cholesterol. The com- Still underdevelopmentiswhatmay be cheese imitations from plants for three pany hopes to start selling the burger be- Beyond Meat’s most ambitious product to years. Formeat, the aim isto recreate itskey fore the end ofthis year. date—a raw ground beef equivalent which components—muscle, connective and fat it hopes will be offered in supermarkets’ tissue—using suitable plant materials. The Getting the flavour meat sections right next to actual beef. Due company’s first product, a hamburger pat- Beyond Meat, based in Southern Califor- for release later this year, it can be cooked ty, already looks and cooks like meat, and nia, has also been studying the compo- and moulded into a meatloaf or meat- will taste as good or better by the time it nents ofmeat to emulate its texture and fla- balls—or, as Mr Brown hopes, even sup- reaches the shops, Dr Brown promises. vour. “We’re smart enough now to plied to a fast-food chain to make burgers. To do this he has assembled a team understand the architecture and the com- San Francisco-based Hampton Creek comparable to one at a biotech or pharma position of a piece of muscle,” says Ethan has replaced eggs with plant proteins in company. It is largely made up of molecu- Brown (no relation to Dr Brown), the com- the products it has released so far. Its Just lar biologists and biochemists, as well as pany’s CEO. The firm’s flagship product, Mayo and Just Cookie Dough are now dis- some physicists; only a few members of Beyond Chicken Strips, has been on sale tributed in 30,000 stores, including Kroger his staffhave a background in food science since 2012, and hasa surprisinglyauthentic and Walmart. Other items in the works in- orhave culinarytraining. In the company’s feel when eaten. When several Whole clude a ranch salad dressing, a scrambled- laboratoryscientistsbreakdown plant ma- Foods Markets accidentally sold misla- egg alternative and pasta. The goal is to terials and extract individual proteins with belled chicken salads with the company’s create productsthatmake iteasyfor people functional properties that can, for exam- plant-based strips there were no com- to choose sustainable plant-based foods ple, make foods firm up or melt down dur- plaints. Only when an employee discov- over conventional items. “Change hap- ing cooking or baking. ered the mix-up after two days were the pens by making something so delicious The company has also spent a lot of salads officially recalled. The product’s tex- and so affordable, everyone chooses it,” time working out what gives meat its un- ture is based on years of research at the says the firm’s boss, Josh Tetrick. ique flavour. According to Dr Brown, the University of Missouri, and it can now be To accomplish this, Hampton Creek has secret to a burger’s taste is haem, a com- created in a processthattakeslessthan two assembled a team that includes experts in pound found in all living cells, including minutes. An extruder rapidly heats, cools biochemistry, bioinformatics and food sci- plants. It is especially abundant in haemo- and pressurises a mixture of proteins and ence along with a number of chefs. Scien- globin in blood, and in muscle tissues as otheringredientsinto a structure that mim- tists extract and isolate proteins from plant myoglobin. It also gives a burger its red col- ics the fibrous tissue ofmuscle. materials and conduct basic biochemical our. During the cooking process haem acts The company’s most recent product, studies to understand their characteristics as a catalyst that helps transform the ami- the Beast Burger, was released last month. and possible applications for a variety of no acids, vitamins and sugars in muscle tis- It has more protein, more iron and is over- foods. The promisingones are tested in rec- sue into numerous volatile and flavourful all more nutritious than actual meat bur- ipes in the company’s bakery and culinary molecules, he explains. To create the gers. “The entire quest for meat in human sections to see how they perform. meatyflavourin itsburgerpatties, the com- evolution is really about a nutrient-dense So far, Hampton Creek has analysed pany uses a heme protein equivalent to source of food,” explains Mr Brown. “I more than 7,000 plant samples and identi- one found in the roots oflegumes. wanted to build on that theme.” fied 16 proteins that might prove useful in Development of the burger has come a But marketing plant-based burgers to food applications. Several are already be- long way. Dr Brown says one person de- carnivores is not easy. “My view is that ing used in its commercial food products, 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 New food 13

“It’s much easier to make a cookie dough without egg than it is to create a scrambled egg without egg”

2 including a type of Canadian yellow pea egg,” says Mattson’s Ms Stuckey. In a cook- search ofcheaper office space. in itsmayonnaise. The team are looking for ie dough ormayonnaise there are plenty of Some users of the first version of the proteinswith functional propertiessuch as other ingredients to work with. But in cre- beverage complained of flatulence be- foaming, gelling and moisture retention. ating an egg or meat analogue there is a cause of the high fibre content. That pro- Mayonnaise, for example, requires a sub- higher bar in the consumer’s mind, she blem has now largely been solved by stance that binds the right amount of oil adds, because the product is not combined changing the carbohydrate blend and add- with water to create a stable emulsion. For with other ingredients it can hide behind. ing some digestive enzymes. Mr Rhinehart its version in stores the company tested Perhaps the most radical approach to likensthe improvementsto the continuous more than 1,500 different formulations. disrupting the food industry comes from updates to software that tech companies Dan Zigmond, the former lead data sci- Soylent, whose beverage is designed to be make. Soylent 1.3, the most recent version, entist for Google Maps and now Hampton a complete substitute for food and not just has a smoother texture than the original, a Creek’s vice-president of data, is in charge one of the many diet drinks or nutritional more neutral taste and its omega-3s now ofsimplifying the process offinding useful supplements. Sold as a powder to be come from algae as opposed to fish oil. proteins. There are an estimated 400,000 mixed with water, it contains all the ingre- plant species in the world, each of which dients needed for sustenance, says Rob Out with the dishes may have tens ofthousands ofproteins. To Rhinehart, Soylent’s founder. It also elimi- Mr Rhinehart himself uses Soylent for search this vast number more efficiently, nates the need to plan meals, cook and about 80% of his dietary needs. As a result his team are feeding data the company has clean up afterward. “I see it as a life-simpli- he has not made a trip to the grocery store already gathered into machine-learning fication tool,” he says. in years. He owns neither a fridge nor dish- models, which are designed to predict The name originates from the sci-fi nov- es. And he has turned his kitchen into a li- which types of proteins could be useful in el “Make Room! Make Room!” in which brary. “I’ve also been able to separate the specific food applications without having people in an overcrowded, apocalyptic feeling of biological hunger from the crav- to go through all the biochemical tests. world live on foods made of soy and len- ing of food from an experiential aspect,” Last October Unilever, a consumer- tils. (A twist in the movie version “Soylent explains Mr Rhinehart, who still enjoys goods giant, sued Hampton Creek for false Green” isthatitssecretingredient ishuman “recreational food” on occasion. advertising, saying its product should not flesh.) The company moved from the San As of mid-February his firm had a four- be called “mayo” because it does not con- Francisco area to Los Angeles in late 2013 in to-five-month backlog fornew orders. Cus- tain eggs. (Based on food standards from tomers subscribe online to receive month- America’s Food and Drug Administration ly shipments with a “meal” costing that date back to 1938, mayonnaise in- roughly $3. According to Mr Rhinehart, his cludes eggs.) Unilever also complained company is already profitable and will use that the plant-based product had taken a recent $20m cash infusion to expand pro- market share away from its well-known duction and sales. brand Hellmann’s, which is made with Mr Rhinehart is, to put it mildly, a little eggs. Some people sawthe lawsuitasa friv- extreme. Not everyone may want to sepa- olous food fight in which a big company rate eating into utility versus pleasure. Im- tries to bully a fledgling one. Andrew Zim- possible Foods’ Dr Brown does not believe mern, a celebrity chef who had preferred such a compromise is necessary. “I don’t Just Mayo over Hellmann’s in a blind taste- see any reason why you can’t have it all— test, even started an online petition to urge the besttastingfood, healthiest, best forthe Unilever to drop the lawsuit. It gathered planet and most affordable.” over100,000 signatures. Buteven ifthe scientifichurdles ofmak- “This was great for Hampton Creek be- ingplants taste like meat and otheranimal- cause it got their name out there and peo- based products are overcome, the bigger ple on their side,” says Matthew Wong, a obstacle these companies face may be cul- research analyst at CB Insights, an analy- tural. People have been eating meat and tics firm. Initially Unilever demanded that having meals together for thousands of Hampton Creek rename its product, take years. Meat in particular is not only prized existing inventory off the shelves and pay for its taste but also perceived as a force of damages. But in December, the company vitality, strength and health. suddenly dropped its lawsuit. It was on the Arecentstudybythe Humane Research same day that Hampton Creekannounced Council, an animal advocacy group, says its latest funding round of $90m, bringing most vegetarians and vegans, about 2% of its total raised to $120m. America’s population, go back to eating Hampton Creek has been successful meat eventually. In the future that may not with the productsitalreadysells. However, be an option. “We can’tsustain the number it is not trying to build a burger patty from of people that we’re going to need to feed scratch with plants, as Impossible Foods is over the next couple of decades with the trying to do, and it has not yet released its current way that we’re eating, ” says Ms

scrambled-egg replacement. “It’s much Stuckey. Whether out of necessity or

easier to make a cookie dough without egg choice, Silic alley’s vision of a big shift than it is to create a scrambled egg without to plant-based foods may be inevitable. 7 14 Brain stimulation The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

and Parkinson’s disease, control cravings for alcohol and drugs, repair stroke dam- age, and accelerate recovery from brain in- juries, to say nothing of improving memo- ry, reasoning and fluency. Remarkably, some effects seem to persist for days or even months. And the closer that scientists look at tDCS, the more they seem to find. Scientific papers about the technology ap- pear at an ever-faster rate. Hardly surprising, then, that DIY brain hackers want in on the action. Christopher

Zobrist, a 36-year-old entrepreneur based  iietnam, is one of them. With little vi- sion he has been registered as blind since birth due to an hereditary condition of his optic nerve that has no established medi- cal treatment. Mr Zobrist read a study of a different kind of transcranial stimulation (using alternating current) that had helped some glaucoma patients in Germany re- cover part of their vision. Despite neither the condition nor the treatment matching his own situation, Mr Zobrist decided to Hacking your brain try tDCS in combination with a visual training app on his tablet computer. He quickly noticed improvements in his dis- tance vision and perception of contrast. “After six months, I can see oncoming traf- fic two to three times fartheraway than be- Neurostimulation: With a DIY bundle of electronics or a ready-made device it fore, which is very helpful when crossing is possible to stimulate the brain. But does it work and is it safe? busy streets,” he says. Online communities dedicated to tDCS

T’S like coffee times ten,” raves one en- boost their memory, speed up learning or are full ofsimilarstories. More still claim to





  “Ithusiast. “I use it a couple of times a induce meditative c et more are try- have gained cognitive enhancements that week and problems solve themselves. At ing to self-medicate for conditions such as give them an edge at work or play. Users the end of the day, I haven’t wasted hours depression, chronic pain and motor, sen- follow the latest scientific papers avidly on frivolous websites. At the end of the sory or neurological disorders. The bene- and attempt to replicate the results at week, my apartment is clean.” This marvel fits might sound implausible, but there is home, discussing the merits of different of productivity is not a new energy drink some science to support them. The idea currents, waveforms and “montages” (ar- oran experimental wonderdrugbut a sim- goes back a long way. Scribonius Largus, a rangements ofthe electrodes on the skull). ple electrical device that he built at home first-century Roman physician, prescribed Dissenting voices are rare. Here and for less than $10. Whenever this physicist the shock of an electric ray for headaches, there are tales of people who experienced

feels like an extra burst of motivation, he and in the 19th century electrical pioneers headaches, nausea, confusion orsleepless- 

places electrodes on his skull and sends a such asLuigi Galvani and Alessandr olta ness after tDCS, while temporary visual ef- jolt ofelectricity into his brain. toyed with crude bioelectric experiments. fects and mild skin burns are fairly com- The currents, which are typically ap- It was not until the 1960s, however, that the mon. There have been no reports of plied forten to 20 minutes, are hundreds of first rigorous studies of electrical brain seizures, serious injuries ordeaths. But that times smaller than the seizure-inducing stimulation tookplace. does not mean it is without risk, says Peter shocks used in electroconvulsive therapy. Reiner, co-founder ofthe National Core for Plans to make such transcranial direction Directing the flow Neuroethicsatthe UniversityofBritish Co- current stimulation (tDCS) machines are The theory behind tDCS is that a weak di- lumbia. He says DIY users may place elec- freely available online and their compo- rect current alters the electric potential of trodes incorrectly, thus stimulating the nents can be bought at hobbyist stores. Kits nerve membranes within the brain. De- wrongpart oftheirbrain, orreverse the po- cater to those lacking soldering skills, and pendingon the direction ofthe current, it is larity of current, potentially impairing the now companies are emerging offering said to make it easier or more difficult for very things they are trying to improve. No nicely designed and packaged brain zap- neurons in a brain circuit to fire. Position one really knows how tDCS interacts with pers formainstream consumers. the electrodes correctly and choose the chemical stimulants or recreational drugs Not everyone using tDCS is seeking to right current, so the idea goes, and you can like marijuana, or with pre-existing condi- become more efficient in their daily life. boost or suppress all kinds of things. Some tions like epilepsy. Even something as fun- Some hope to enhance their concentration researchers have reported that tDCS can re- damental as being left-handed can alter for study or video gaming; others want to duce pain, ease depression, treat autism the functional organisation of the brain. 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 Brain stimulation 15

Happiness and health may always be more than just a 9-volt battery away

2 And if the benefits of tDCS can persist for But it wants supplying brain zappers to well do something, exactly what is open to weeks, perhaps its side-effects can linger, children to be made illegal. Last year the question. As the hype around tDCS grows, too. Many neuroscientists are particularly FDA allowed transcutaneous electrical some neuroscientists are starting to ques- worried that the use of tDCS by children nerve stimulator (TENS) machines for tion whether the technology really is the and young adults could affect their long- headache relief as it rated them as low-to panacea it appears to be. term neural development. moderate-risk devices. TENS devices use a In 2013 Teresa Iuculano and Roi Cohen Some of these concerns can be ad- different waveform to tDCS and target cra- Kadosh of the Department of Experimen- dressed by manufacturing tDCS devices to nial nerves rather than the brain itself, but tal Psychology at the University of Oxford make it difficult, or impossible, to exceed they rely on a similar controller and head- split volunteers up into three groups and recommended currents or to apply the mounted electrodes. Before allowing new asked them to learn a made-up mathemat- electrodes incorrectly. One such product TENS products to be sold, the FDA now ical notation system. The first two groups already exists. The Foc.us V2, made by wants to see evidence that the compo- received tDCS to different parts ofthe brain Transcranial, a London company, is adver- nents are not likely to cause injury, that the previously associated with numerical un- tised as a $199 pocket-sized controller that controller can reliably provide the correct derstanding and learning, while a non- pairs with a $99 headset intended to help output, that there are no thermal or me- functional “sham” device was used on the with concentration and reaction speed chanical hazards, and that clinical data third group as a control. After a week, all while videogaming. Donning the headset demonstrate the device is safe and effec- three groups were tested on how well they automatically positions the electrodes on tive as a headache treatment. Recent draft had learned the new notation system, and the left and right temples, and both the du- FDA guidelines for wellness devices sug- whether they could use it in practice. The ration and maximum current are capped. gesttDCS machinesmayeventuallybe reg- first group showed an improvement in A second headset provides a different ulated in a similar way. learning compared with the control group, montage aimed at improving performance but a decrease in their ability to apply their and motivation while exercising. Going underground knowledge, while the second group expe- In reality, however, there is no guaran- The University of British Columbia’s Dr rienced the opposite result. This suggests tee that even slick products are any safer Reiner doubts that any manufacturer to- that the brain is actually rather well bal- than a pocket-money brain stimulator as- day can provide such information for anced: boost performance in one cognitive sembled at home from a 9-volt battery, tDCS. Even ifthey could, the cost of gather- realm through stimulation, and aptitude in electrodes, a few wires and other compo- ing it would make consumer devices more another will naturally diminish. nents. Unlike the tDCS machines used for expensive. “When you can make a tDCS There is also the possibility that a varia- medical trials and clinical research, con- device yourself for less than $20, we tion in individual responses to tDCS will sumer versions may not have been as- would advise strongly against heavy regu- overshadow any general effects. In a study sessed by any official body for safety or ef- lation because it will only drive the tech- published last year, Dr Cohen Kadosh set fectiveness. Ifthe maker insists they are for nology underground,” he says. up two groups: one of people who were use only by healthy adults to enhance cog- Proving the effectiveness of brain stim- anxious when presented with mathemati- nition or leisure activities and make no di- ulation will be difficult. Although it may cal problems, and another who had confi- agnostic or therapeutic claims, such “well- dence in their ability to breeze through nu- ness” devices have slipped under the merical quizzes. When treated with tDCS regulatory radar of both the Medical De- to their prefrontal cortices, the nervous in- vices Directive in Europe and the Food and dividuals improved their reaction time on Drug Administration (FDA) in America. simple arithmetical problems and showed That worries some experts. A recent pa- reduced levels of stress. Given the same per from the Institute for Science and Eth- treatment, the confident group had longer ics at the University of Oxford points out reaction times and no less stress. “If you thatconsumertDCS productsare mechani- can get exactly the opposite results with a cally and functionally equivalent to medi- different population, that shows DIY brain cal neurostimulation devices that require hackers and companies marketing stimu- licensing. Why regulate the version that is lation to improve gaming or other abilities likely to be operated responsibly by health are not on the right track,” says Dr Cohen professionals, and not the one freely avail- Kadosh. “We need to understand how the able to unskilled and inexperienced users? brain works in different people.” The Nuffield Council on Bioethics agrees, Felipe Fregni, directorofthe Laboratory recommending in 2013 that the European of Neuromodulation at Harvard Medical Commission should consider regulating School, saystDCS hasbeen shown to accel- all such gadgets under its medical devices erate the learning of new skills. But he regime, regardless of the purposes for agrees that individual variation is impor- which they are marketed. tant, noting that younger people some- The Institute for Science and Ethics pro- times do not improve as much as older poses a graded regulation system that errs subjects, and that people at later stages of on the side of consumer choice for tDCS learning may even experience detrimental devices, requiring comprehensive, objec- effects. “The more science you know, the tive information about risks and benefits more confused you can become of what to allow users to make informed decisions. really is the effect oftDCS,” says Dr Fregni. 1 16 Brain stimulation The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

2 One advantage ofthe deluge ofscientif- nitive processes like working memory. ic papers is that they can be subjected to While Thync’s stimulator is not yet avail- meta-analysis, whereby studies can be sta- able to the public, the firm was willing to tistically combined to tease out new dis- give your correspondent a pre-launch trial. coveries. Last year, Jared Horvath, a neuro- The Thync device attaches with one scientist at the University of Melbourne in sticky electrode on the right temple and Australia, published a meta-analysis of 30 one behind the right ear. The unit is con- measurements taken during tDCS studies, trolled via a smartphone app, with the including neural responses, oxygen levels user able to adjust the intensity but not the and electrical activity in the brain. Surpris- duration of the session. At first, the unit ingly, he found that tDCS had a reliable ef- generated a barely perceptible crawling fect on only one: the electrical response of feeling on the skin near the electrodes, muscles to stimulus, and even that has building gradually to a pronounced tin- steadily declined in studies over the last 14 gling sensation. Over the 20-minute ses- years. Mr Horvath believes this indicates sion, the strength of the signal varied up that the response has historically been and down according to a preset routine. It measured poorly and that it too will even- felt itchy at times and, at its most powerful, tually disappear as techniques mature. caused muscles in the forehead to spasm Equally troublesome is a meta-analysis nology look as though it is doing nothing alarmingly. Although the experience was ofthe cognitive and behavioural effects on when in fact it has real but opposing effects not altogether unpleasant, any extra ener- healthy adults that Mr Horvath subse- in different people. Mr Horvath insists that gy or focus proved, alas, elusive. Dr Tyler quently carried out. As before, he included his analysis allows forthis possibility. acknowledged that perhaps one in four only the most reliable studies: those with a Critics might also wonder why Mr Hor- people do not perceive any immediate sham control group and replicated by oth- vath omitted tests where tDCS seems to benefit from the device. er researchers. It left 200 studies claiming have been most effective, in alleviating, for Even for those who find themselves to have discovered beneficial effects on instance, clinical conditions such as de- susceptible to itscharms, the challenges for over 100 activities such as problem solv- pression. He admits that would be useful a product like Thync are formidable. The ing, learning, mental arithmetic, working but says, “If something doesn’t demon- cognitive enhancements of a strong cup of memory and motor tasks. After his meta- strate any type of effect in healthy people, tea or a glass of vintage Burgundy are well analysis, however, tDCS was found to have it becomes incredibly difficult, if not im- established. And partaking of them can be had no significant effect on any ofthem. possible, to argue why it would workwith- socially acceptable, deliciously enjoyable If tDCS alters neither the physiology of in a clinical population.” and rapidlyachieved. None ofthese can be the brain nor how it performs, thinks Mr Not all neuroscientists are defending said of a disconcerting gizmo that needs Horvath, then evidence suggests it is not the status quo. “I’m not surprised that he half an hour to work and causes eyebrows doinganythingatall. Marom Bikson, a pro- found no effect from conventionally ap- to raise, both literally and socially. fessor of biomedical engineering at City plied tDCS,” says Jamie Tyler, a professor at Regardless of their questionable utility

University of New York, disagrees. “I can Arizona State University and one of the and effectiveness, tDCS gadgets are too

 

literally make you fall on your butt using founders of Thync, a Silic alley startup novel, cheap and alluring to simply dis- the ‘wrong’ type of tDCS,” he says. Dr Bik- that recently unveiled a smartphone-con- miss. Consumer-wellness devices like son thinks the biggest challenge for tDCS is trolled tDCS device. Thync tried to repli- Thync may appeal to those who cannot optimising techniques, such as the dose. cate some basic tDCS findings on cognition use caffeine or alcohol for medical or reli- Mr Horvath notes that many papers but could not do so. Dr Tyler now believes gious reasons, and there will always be measure 20 or more outcomes, with brain that tDCS may not directly stimulate the healthy overachievers seeking to super- stimulation showing a weak effect on one brain at all but instead modulates cranial charge their cognition for study or work. or two. “But in the title and abstract, that’s nerves in the skull, like the headache-bust- More importantly, tDCS presents the tanta- all they talk about,” he says. “No one men- ing TENS technology. He designed the lising promise of relief from some medical tions the tons of effects that tDCS didn’t Thync device, a pocket-sized unit with dis- conditions for which traditional therapies have an impact on but that technically it posable pre-shaped electrodes, to target are either ineffective or unaffordable. As should have ifitisdoingwhatthe research- these nerves with the aim of generating ei- the University ofMelbourne’s Mr Horvath er thinks it is.” ther relaxed or energetic mental states. says, “If there are ten percent of people Another problem might be the small who are feeling a huge effect, even if that’s sample size, sometimes as few as ten or 15 A shot ofcaffeine placebo, who are we to say no to them?” people. Mr Horvath says future studies Dr Tyler recently published a study of 82 If people want to experiment with should use at least150 subjects. There is, of people with a control. Its results suggest tDCS, there seems to be no reason to pre- course, the possibility that Mr Horvath’s that Thync’s device can reduce psycho- vent them, provided it is done in the safest analyses are flawed. His paper included physiological stress by altering skin con- way possible. Devices could be regulated only one-off sessions, while many scien- ductivity (a measure used in pseudoscien- lightly with a view to safety rather than ef- tists believe the effects oftDCS accumulate tificlie detectors), stressenzymesand heart fectiveness, and neuroscientists encour- with repetition. However, too few multi- rate variability. He likens Thync’s “modi- aged to design future studieswith more rig- ple-session studies exist for a valid meta- fied tDCS” programs to ingesting either a our. Happiness and health may always be analysis. Dr Cohen Kadosh points out that third of a cup of coffee or a glass of wine, more than just a 9-volt battery away, but individual variations could make the tech- and says no effect has been found on cog- brain hacking looks like it is here to stay. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015 Brain scan 17 Medicine by numbers

start chemotherapy within six weeks of their operation for the best chance of Susan Ellenberg is a biostatistician catching any remaining cancer cells. Those trying to avoid mistakes in an era of who missed the deadline were automati- Big Data and high-tech personalised cally excluded from the analysis. medicine Dr Ellenberg realised that most reasons for starting treatment late, such as a slower F WE didn’t take any risks, we recovery from surgery because ofold age “Iwouldn’t approve any drugs,” says or a particularly large tumour, would Susan Ellenberg, a professor ofbiostatis- probably mean a poorer prognosis regard- tics at the University ofPennsylvania. less ofany subsequent treatment. Exclud- “Some people will always want a new ing those people would leave the chemo- drug sooner and say they’re willing to take therapy group with healthier members on a chance. Others will ask, why didn’t you average, making a drug lookbeneficial study it longer and find out about this even ifit did nothing. Dr Ellenberg insisted horrible side-effect?” that the investigators trackeveryone who During her long career, Dr Ellenberg had been randomised into the study, even has used data to quantify and communi- ifthey were treated late or not at all. cate those risks. Along the way she has In 1988, Dr Ellenberg became the first helped to shape a discipline that owes as chiefofbiostatistics for AIDS at the US much to ethics and philosophy as it does National Institute ofAllergy and Infec- to pure mathematics. Now medicine is tious Diseases. She arrived at a desperate entering a new digital age, one ofBig Data time. HIV appeared to be a death sentence, and high-tech personalised treatments patients were demanding treatments, that are tailored to an individual’s genetic however unproven, and doctors were make-up. But more data does not necessar- struggling to catch up. With most infec- ily mean better data, so amid the increas- tious diseases, patients could be treated ing complexity it will be as important as and followed up within weeks to see ever to measure correctly which treat- whether the pathogen had disappeared. ments workand which do not. With HIV/AIDS, they might have to mon- It is a job Dr Ellenberg is well suited to. itor trial members foryears to see who She has already played a big part in im- lived and who died. proving the data-monitoring committees that now oversee virtually all clinical Measuring surrogates trials; she has helped establish standard Dr Ellenberg championed a concept called practices fortracking dangerous treat- surrogate endpoints that she had pioneer- ments; and she has encouraged patient ed in cancer trials. These are biochemical lobbies to find a voice in clinical testing. measures that can indicate quickly wheth- But Dr Ellenberg nearly missed becom- er a patient in a trial is likely to improve, ing a statistician at all. As a high-school remain stable or deteriorate in the long- maths teacher in the 1970s, she tooka term. For example, blood pressure can be a summer job analysing clinical trial data. surrogate endpoint forcardiovascular Luckily, she became so engrossed that she mortality. The challenge with AIDS was quit her job and returned to graduate working out which ofdozens ofbiological school for a doctorate in statistics. The markers had the best predictive value. Dr basics ofrandomising subjects into differ- Ellenberg helped narrow these down to ent groups and leaving the patient (and ones that were strongly associated with ideally health-care workers as well) un- long-term survival, such as CD4 white- aware ofthe treatment each was receiving blood-cell counts. “I wish I could tell you were well known. However, there were that led to wonderful results and now we still plenty ofmistakes being made. know how to do it,” she says, “But we’re “In the old days, people used to throw still limping along.” out some oftheir data,” says Dr Ellenberg. The problem is that a surrogate for one “Ifa patient didn’t comply with their treatment may not workwith another, treatment, the researchers would say, how either because the second treatment func- can they possibly contribute to the ques- tions differently or has side-effects. But it tion ofhow that treatment works? So they was still a step forward, allowing investi- just dropped them.” In one case Dr Ellen- gators to screen potential drugs more berg worked on in the 1970s, doctors want- quickly. Nothing could be fast enough for ed to test whether chemotherapy could some activists, however, who wanted help people recovering from colon cancer early access to anything that might slow surgery. The study required patients to the progression ofAIDS. “The clinical 1 18 Brain scan The Economist Technology Quarterly March 7th 2015

Without the right analytical methods, more data just gives a more precise estimate of the wrong thing

2 leadership was unwilling to talkwith serious. But we’re not doing anybody any harder to spot. Nevertheless, Dr Ellenberg activists at that point,” says Dr Ellenberg, favours ifwe don’t find out whether these believes statistics can help by integrating “But I saw that the Act Up group in New drugs or vaccines actually work.” evidence from other trials. Yorkhad a very carefully thought-out set Much ofDr Ellenberg’s workat the FDA Dr Ellenberg continues to workon ofprinciples fordoing AIDS trials.” focused on the safety ofmedicines, partic- surrogate endpoints and clinical trials, Dr Ellenberg welcomed Act Up to her ularly vaccines, once they were on the including a new study testing an innova- statistical working group on AIDS, and market. No clinical trial can ever catch the tive approach to attacking HIV. She also changes began to trickle through. Until rarest side-effects but tracking those down recently travelled to Botswana to help then, some studies had not allowed trial from sporadic reports, anecdotes and statisticians and clinicians there develop patients to take drugs other than the one coincidences is incredibly difficult. She their own biostatistics programmes. Like being tested, even though many AIDS notes that most infants are vaccinated and most medical academics, Dr Ellenberg sufferers needed a cocktail ofmedications sometimes children get very sick. But is it would like to see an end to the practice of to fight opportunistic infections. Dr Ellen- the vaccine or just coincidence? “I was some pharmaceutical companies quietly berg showed that a study could deliver trying to make something out ofthe worst, burying trial data that is inconvenient to useful results while allowing its members dirtiest kind ofdata that you could pos- them. Thousands ofclinical trials have to continue with life-saving medicines. sibly imagine,” adds Dr Ellenberg. never been registered with oversight Patient groups are now routinely involved The arrival ofelectronic medical re- agencies and results from around half of in planning clinical trials. cords and the advent ofBig Data promises all clinical trials (often those with unfa- The role ofplacebos in clinical testing massive statistical analyses that can un- vourable results) remain unpublished. was a thornier problem. The most reliable cover everything from uncommon side- Making that data available to statisticians results can always be obtained by compar- effects to how peoples’ genes might affect would almost certainly lead to new dis- ing two identical groups, one ofwhich their future well-being. The technology is coveries and clinically useful findings. receives a treatment and the other an inert likely to be particularly useful in detecting However there could also be negative placebo. Ethically, however, doctors are bad treatments, thinks Dr Ellenberg. While consequences. “Sharing raw data could loth to withhold an effective treatment most reported problems may continue to promote inappropriate re-analyses,” where one exists, so many trials simply be coincidences, at least biostatisticians warns Dr Ellenberg. She says there are compared a new drug to an existing one. will be able to compare reliable lists of many who would be ready to believe any In 1993 Dr Ellenberg moved to the US Food who tooka drug and who experienced analysis claiming to prove that vaccines and Drug Administration (FDA). In a series unpleasant reactions. The problem, says caused harm. ofscientific papers, she and a colleague Dr Ellenberg, is detecting the signal from That the dry world ofstatistics is be- demonstrated that such trials can often fail the noise. “The more people you have the coming a battleground ofideas and com- to demonstrate the effectiveness ofnew richer your database will be but also the mercial interests, affecting the future of treatments. In 2002, the World Medical more ways there are to be misled by the medical care and the lives ofpeople Association changed its recommenda- data.” Without the right analytical meth- around the world, may shocksome. For Dr tions to permit placebo-controlled trials ods, she believes, more data just gives a Ellenberg, who has spent her professional explicitly where patients would not suffer more precise estimate ofthe wrong thing. life emphasising the life-saving impor- serious or irreversible harm. tance ofaccuracy, it is no surprise at all. The same year, Dr Ellenberg wrote a From the genes “We’ve got all this data,” she says. “The bookabout the importance (and the dan- Dr Ellenberg points out that services like answer isn’t to ignore it. The answer is to gers) ofanalysing data as it accumulates 23andMe, which provide ancestral and figure out how to limit the number of during a clinical trial. Her ideas of how medical interpretations ofindividuals’ mistakes we make.” 7 data-monitoring committees should genetic information, have not yet deliv- function quickly became standard prac- ered the revolution in health that many Offer to readers tice. It had long been realised, for example, had expected. In the early days ofgeno- Reprints of Technology Quarterly are available that a trial might reveal one treatment to mics, excited mathematicians thought from the Rights and Syndication Department. be much better than another. The only they had discovered thousands ofcorrela- A minimum order of five copies is required. ethical thing to do in that case would be to tions, most ofwhich were chance findings. stop the trial and give everyone the su- Dr Ellenberg also worries that presenting Corporate offer perior drug. In the past, statisticians keen people with links between particular Customisation options on corporate orders of to find such magic bullets would crunch genes and health outcomes might lead 100 or more are available. Please contact us to discuss your requirements. their data every few weeks or months. them to worry needlessly or seekout For more information on how to order special “But ifyou lookat your data often enough, potentially harmful treatments forcondi- reports, reprints or any queries you may have sooner or later you’ll observe by chance tions they do not yet suffer from. please contact: that one arm ofthe test looks better,” says In his state-of-the-union address, Ba- Dr Ellenberg. “There is now a mistrust of rackObama lauded personalised medi- The Rights and Syndication Department the whole concept ofearly termination.” cines. But these are tricky to approve. The Economist 20 Cabot Square She also cautions against the tempta- When a disease affects millions, large London E14 4QW tion to set statistics aside when faced with clinical trials can reliably spot even small Tel +44 (0)20 7576 8148 something that appears to be urgent: differences between drugs. But forperson- Fax +44 (0)20 7576 8492 “There are groups saying they would be alised treatments, or ones targeting rare e-mail: [email protected] opposed to doing randomised trials for “orphan diseases” that affect only a few www.economist.com/rights drugs or vaccines forEbola because it’s so people, those differences become much