Developing Rwandan Secondary Cities as Model Green Cities with Green Economic Opportunities Report 1 Preliminary Analysis and Diagnosis Musanze Secondary City, Rwanda Rwanda Country Program March 2015 Developing Rwandan Secondary Cities as Model Green Cities with Green Economic Opportunities Report 1: Preliminary Analysis and Diagnosis This document is paginated for a two-sided printing. © Republic of Rwanda Ministry of Infrastructure © Global Green Growth Institute - Rwanda Country Program 19F Jeongdong Bldg. 21-15 Jeongdong-gil Jung-gu Seoul 100-784 Republic of Korea Table of Contents Table of Figures 5 List of Tables 5 Acronyms 7 Glossary 9 Executive Summary 13 Introduction 17 1.1 Project Background and Objectives 17 1.2 Overall Activities 18 1.2.1 Urbanization and Rural Settwlement Sector Strategic Plan 2012/13-17/18 18 1.2.2 National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development 19 1.3 The Secondary Cities 20 1.4 Scope of the Project 20 1.4.1 Component 1 21 1.4.2 Component 2 21 1.4.3 Component 3 21 1.5 Introduction to this report 22 Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of the District Development Level . 25 2.1 Introduction 25 2.2 National Economic Profile 25 2.2.1 Services and Infrastructure 25 2.2.2 Agriculture 26 2.2.3 Industry 27 2.2.4 Trade performance 27 2.2.5 Sustainable Tourism 27 2.3 General District Profiles 27 2.3.1 City of Kigal 30 2.3.2 Huye 30 2.3.3 Muhanga 31 2.3.4 Nyagatare 32 2.3.6 Musanze 32 2.3.7 Risizi 33 2.4 District Development Index (DDI) 33 2.4.1 Specific Methodology 33 2.4.2 Key Findings 36 2.4.3 Cluster Analysis 41 2.5 Conclusion 42 District Growth Scenarios 43 3.1 Methodology 43 3.1.1 First Scenario 43 3.1.2 Second Scenario 43 3.1.3 Third Scenario 44 3.2 Key findings 50 3.2.1 Scenario 1 50 3.2.2 Scenario 2 51 3.2.3 Scenario 3 52 3 Integrated Urban Planning and Development Management 55 4.1 National Level 55 4.1.1 EDPRS2 55 4.1.2 The National Land Use Development Master Plan 55 4.1.3 Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategy (2013-2018) 56 4.2 Local Plans 56 4.2.1 District Development Plan 56 4.2.2 District Land Use Development Plans 57 4.2.3 Local Urban Development Plans 57 4.2.4 Detailed Physical Plans 57 4.2.5 Integrated planning among different local plans 58 4.2.6 Integrated planning for urban-rural linkages 66 4.3 Conclusions 68 Key Technologies Related to Sustainability in Cities 69 5.1 Baseline and Technology Option 72 5.1.1 Energy Supply 72 5.1.2 Energy Efficiency 73 5.1.3 Water Sector 74 5.1.4 Resource Use 74 5.1.5 Transport 75 5.1.6 Barriers 75 5.1.7 Opportunities 75 5.1.8 Potential for these to be integrated into a Sustainable Urban Planning Approach 76 5.2 Conclusions 77 Conclusion 79 References 81 7.1 National Documents 81 7.2 Local District and City Level Documents 83 7.3 General Reference 84 4 Table of figures Figure ES1 Relationship between Component 2 and the Overall Project Figure 1.1 Relationship between EPDRS2 and National Green Growth Strategy Figure 1.2 Conceptual hierarchy of national human settlement network Figure 1.3 Map of Rwanda and secondary cities Figure 2.1 Urban population of Rwanda by district Figure 2.2 Net migration patterns between districts Figure 2.3 DDI’s Methodology Figure 2.4 Rwanda District Development Index (DDI) Figure 2.5 Distribution of development between districts based on DDI Figure 2.6 DDI average – City of Kigali and secondary city districts Figure 2.7 Index of secondary city districts with regards to Human Resources, Living Conditions and Local Economy Figure 2.8 Human Resource Index of the secondary city districts Figure 2.9 Living Condition Index of the secondary city districts Figure 2.10 Local Economy Index of the secondary city districts Figure 2.11 Clusters of secondary city districts based on DDI Figure 2.12 Hierarchy of districts based on DDI Figure 3.1 Urban structure of developed countries Figure 3.2 Urban structure of middle income countries Figure 3.3 Current urban structure of Rwanda and ideal urban structure Figure 3.4 Urban structure of East African countries Figure 3.5 Urbanization of Kenya Figure 3.6 Urbanization of Uganda Figure 3.7 Urbanization of Tanzania Figure 3.8 Relationship between urbanization rate and q value Figure 3.9 Scenario 1 – Total population per district 2012-2032 Figure 3.10 Scenario 1 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012-2032 Figure 3.11 Scenario 1 – Urbanized Land Area 2012-2032 Figure 3.12 Scenario 2 – Total population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.13 Scenario 2 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.14 Scenario 2 – Urbanized Land Area 2012-2052 Figure 3.15 Scenario 3 – Total population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.16 Scenario 3 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.17 Scenario 3 – Urbanized Land Area 2012-2052 Figure 4.1 Rwanda Settlement Hierarchy Figure 4.2 Rwanda’s urban/rural population density by district 5 List of tables Table 1.1 Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan Table 1.2 National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development Table 2.1 Dimensions and Indicators of DDI Table 2.2 Ranking of districts (1 to 13th) based on DDI Table 2.3 Index of the city of Kigali and the secondary city district with regards to the 16 indicators Table 3.1 Net migration of population between districts Table 3.2 Urbanization patterns of East African countries Table 4.1 Current status of DDP, LUP, MP LUDP, and DPP Table 4.2 Priorities compilation and comparison from existing planning documents Table 4.3 Population Data for Secondary Cities in Rwanda Table 5.1 Typology of Green Technology Growth Engines Table 5.2 Employment Opportunities in Reuse and Remanufacturing vs. Recycling vs. Disposal 6 Acronyms BAU Business as Usual CDM Clean Development Mechanism CER Certified Emissions Reductions DFID Department for International Development EDPRS2 Second Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EICV3 Third Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey EWSA Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority FONERWA Rwanda National Climate and Environment Fund GGCRNS Green Growth and Climate Resilient National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development GGGI Global Green Growth Institute GHG Greenhouse Gases GoR The Government of Rwanda MINALOC Minister of Local Government MINECOFIN Minister of Finance and Economic Planning MINICOM Ministry of Trade and Industry MININFRA Minister of Infrastructure MINIRENA Minister of Environment and Natural Resources M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NISR National Institute of Statistics for Rwanda NLUDMP National Land Use Development Master Plan (2010) RALGA Rwanda Association of Local Government Authorities RDB Rwanda Development Board REMA Rwanda Environment Management Authority RHA Rwanda Housing Authority RNRA Rwanda Natural Resources Authority RTDA Rwanda Transport Development Authority RURA Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority RwF Rwandan Francs SIA Social Impact Assessment 7 Glossary It is important to understand what is meant by a and biodiversity loss and security of access to clean number of terms referred in this report. It has become water and energy. Green growth is a balanced clear that different organizations, both within Rwanda advance of economic growth and environmental and internationally, use different terminology and sustainability, integrating social, economic and meanings, making a common understanding of every environmental policies. concept difficult. In order to meet the objectives for this report, we need to define the elements of growth Green Growth is therefore a subset of general and green growth that we will treat as in scope. We economic growth. There are two ways of viewing therefore need to define certain terms. Green Growth: Growth • Growth that is greener than a Business as Usual (BAU) approach to development, which requires a Growth is any economic activity that adds value to conscious decision to choose greener technologies the economy by: even where the initial resource cost is greater (while noting that the cost may not be greater when wider • using factors of production (labor and capital) considerations – externalities such as the value of to add value to inputs to produce products and carbon savings or improvements in social welfare services for sale inside or outside Rwanda, are factored in). • increasing productive capital (agricultural or • The development of specific green industries (e.g. industrial investment, etc.), renewable energy source electricity generation or sustainable construction materials). • increasing human and social capital where there is a measurable improvement in productive potential However, green growth in Rwanda is not only about (e.g. from improved health, education, etc.) , introducing new aspects of greener technologies and industries that protect the environment while promoting • reducing environmental harm (e.g. reduced land development, it is also about looking at what has already degradation) or been implemented that is protecting and preserving the environment and enhancing development. Environmental • increasing personal incomes. Impact Assessments (EIAs), Social Impact Assessments (SIAs), resource efficiency and cleaner production are This last bullet is in fact an outcome of economic fundamental aspects of green growth that have been growth, and the bullet before can be considered to be introduced in the country. part of green growth. The concept of green growth responds to the dual global Green Growth challenges of (1) expanding economic opportunities for a growing population and (2) mitigating the environmental Green growth is a relatively new model of economic pressures that could otherwise undermine our ability growth that is compatible with protecting the to take advantage of these opportunities.