Developing Rwandan Secondary Cities as Model Green Cities with Green Economic Opportunities Report 1 Preliminary Analysis and Diagnosis
Musanze Secondary City, Rwanda Rwanda Country Program March 2015
Developing Rwandan Secondary Cities as Model Green Cities with Green Economic Opportunities
Report 1: Preliminary Analysis and Diagnosis
This document is paginated for a two-sided printing.
© Republic of Rwanda Ministry of Infrastructure © Global Green Growth Institute - Rwanda Country Program
19F Jeongdong Bldg. 21-15 Jeongdong-gil Jung-gu Seoul 100-784 Republic of Korea Table of Contents
Table of Figures 5 List of Tables 5 Acronyms 7 Glossary 9 Executive Summary 13
Introduction 17 1.1 Project Background and Objectives 17 1.2 Overall Activities 18 1.2.1 Urbanization and Rural Settwlement Sector Strategic Plan 2012/13-17/18 18 1.2.2 National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development 19 1.3 The Secondary Cities 20 1.4 Scope of the Project 20 1.4.1 Component 1 21 1.4.2 Component 2 21 1.4.3 Component 3 21 1.5 Introduction to this report 22
Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of the District Development Level . 25 2.1 Introduction 25 2.2 National Economic Profile 25 2.2.1 Services and Infrastructure 25 2.2.2 Agriculture 26 2.2.3 Industry 27 2.2.4 Trade performance 27 2.2.5 Sustainable Tourism 27 2.3 General District Profiles 27 2.3.1 City of Kigal 30 2.3.2 Huye 30 2.3.3 Muhanga 31 2.3.4 Nyagatare 32 2.3.6 Musanze 32 2.3.7 Risizi 33 2.4 District Development Index (DDI) 33 2.4.1 Specific Methodology 33 2.4.2 Key Findings 36 2.4.3 Cluster Analysis 41 2.5 Conclusion 42
District Growth Scenarios 43 3.1 Methodology 43 3.1.1 First Scenario 43 3.1.2 Second Scenario 43 3.1.3 Third Scenario 44 3.2 Key findings 50 3.2.1 Scenario 1 50 3.2.2 Scenario 2 51 3.2.3 Scenario 3 52
3 Integrated Urban Planning and Development Management 55 4.1 National Level 55 4.1.1 EDPRS2 55 4.1.2 The National Land Use Development Master Plan 55 4.1.3 Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategy (2013-2018) 56 4.2 Local Plans 56 4.2.1 District Development Plan 56 4.2.2 District Land Use Development Plans 57 4.2.3 Local Urban Development Plans 57 4.2.4 Detailed Physical Plans 57 4.2.5 Integrated planning among different local plans 58 4.2.6 Integrated planning for urban-rural linkages 66 4.3 Conclusions 68
Key Technologies Related to Sustainability in Cities 69 5.1 Baseline and Technology Option 72 5.1.1 Energy Supply 72 5.1.2 Energy Efficiency 73 5.1.3 Water Sector 74 5.1.4 Resource Use 74 5.1.5 Transport 75 5.1.6 Barriers 75 5.1.7 Opportunities 75 5.1.8 Potential for these to be integrated into a Sustainable Urban Planning Approach 76 5.2 Conclusions 77
Conclusion 79
References 81 7.1 National Documents 81 7.2 Local District and City Level Documents 83 7.3 General Reference 84
4 Table of figures
Figure ES1 Relationship between Component 2 and the Overall Project Figure 1.1 Relationship between EPDRS2 and National Green Growth Strategy Figure 1.2 Conceptual hierarchy of national human settlement network Figure 1.3 Map of Rwanda and secondary cities Figure 2.1 Urban population of Rwanda by district Figure 2.2 Net migration patterns between districts Figure 2.3 DDI’s Methodology Figure 2.4 Rwanda District Development Index (DDI) Figure 2.5 Distribution of development between districts based on DDI Figure 2.6 DDI average – City of Kigali and secondary city districts Figure 2.7 Index of secondary city districts with regards to Human Resources, Living Conditions and Local Economy Figure 2.8 Human Resource Index of the secondary city districts Figure 2.9 Living Condition Index of the secondary city districts Figure 2.10 Local Economy Index of the secondary city districts Figure 2.11 Clusters of secondary city districts based on DDI Figure 2.12 Hierarchy of districts based on DDI Figure 3.1 Urban structure of developed countries Figure 3.2 Urban structure of middle income countries Figure 3.3 Current urban structure of Rwanda and ideal urban structure Figure 3.4 Urban structure of East African countries Figure 3.5 Urbanization of Kenya Figure 3.6 Urbanization of Uganda Figure 3.7 Urbanization of Tanzania Figure 3.8 Relationship between urbanization rate and q value Figure 3.9 Scenario 1 – Total population per district 2012-2032 Figure 3.10 Scenario 1 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012-2032 Figure 3.11 Scenario 1 – Urbanized Land Area 2012-2032 Figure 3.12 Scenario 2 – Total population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.13 Scenario 2 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.14 Scenario 2 – Urbanized Land Area 2012-2052 Figure 3.15 Scenario 3 – Total population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.16 Scenario 3 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012-2052 Figure 3.17 Scenario 3 – Urbanized Land Area 2012-2052 Figure 4.1 Rwanda Settlement Hierarchy Figure 4.2 Rwanda’s urban/rural population density by district
5 List of tables
Table 1.1 Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan Table 1.2 National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development Table 2.1 Dimensions and Indicators of DDI Table 2.2 Ranking of districts (1 to 13th) based on DDI Table 2.3 Index of the city of Kigali and the secondary city district with regards to the 16 indicators Table 3.1 Net migration of population between districts Table 3.2 Urbanization patterns of East African countries Table 4.1 Current status of DDP, LUP, MP LUDP, and DPP Table 4.2 Priorities compilation and comparison from existing planning documents Table 4.3 Population Data for Secondary Cities in Rwanda Table 5.1 Typology of Green Technology Growth Engines Table 5.2 Employment Opportunities in Reuse and Remanufacturing vs. Recycling vs. Disposal
6 Acronyms
BAU Business as Usual CDM Clean Development Mechanism CER Certified Emissions Reductions DFID Department for International Development EDPRS2 Second Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EICV3 Third Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey EWSA Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority FONERWA Rwanda National Climate and Environment Fund GGCRNS Green Growth and Climate Resilient National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development GGGI Global Green Growth Institute GHG Greenhouse Gases GoR The Government of Rwanda MINALOC Minister of Local Government MINECOFIN Minister of Finance and Economic Planning MINICOM Ministry of Trade and Industry MININFRA Minister of Infrastructure MINIRENA Minister of Environment and Natural Resources M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NISR National Institute of Statistics for Rwanda NLUDMP National Land Use Development Master Plan (2010) RALGA Rwanda Association of Local Government Authorities RDB Rwanda Development Board REMA Rwanda Environment Management Authority RHA Rwanda Housing Authority RNRA Rwanda Natural Resources Authority RTDA Rwanda Transport Development Authority RURA Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority RwF Rwandan Francs SIA Social Impact Assessment
7 Glossary
It is important to understand what is meant by a and biodiversity loss and security of access to clean number of terms referred in this report. It has become water and energy. Green growth is a balanced clear that different organizations, both within Rwanda advance of economic growth and environmental and internationally, use different terminology and sustainability, integrating social, economic and meanings, making a common understanding of every environmental policies. concept difficult. In order to meet the objectives for this report, we need to define the elements of growth Green Growth is therefore a subset of general and green growth that we will treat as in scope. We economic growth. There are two ways of viewing therefore need to define certain terms. Green Growth:
Growth • Growth that is greener than a Business as Usual (BAU) approach to development, which requires a Growth is any economic activity that adds value to conscious decision to choose greener technologies the economy by: even where the initial resource cost is greater (while noting that the cost may not be greater when wider • using factors of production (labor and capital) considerations – externalities such as the value of to add value to inputs to produce products and carbon savings or improvements in social welfare services for sale inside or outside Rwanda, are factored in).
• increasing productive capital (agricultural or • The development of specific green industries (e.g. industrial investment, etc.), renewable energy source electricity generation or sustainable construction materials). • increasing human and social capital where there is a measurable improvement in productive potential However, green growth in Rwanda is not only about (e.g. from improved health, education, etc.) , introducing new aspects of greener technologies and industries that protect the environment while promoting • reducing environmental harm (e.g. reduced land development, it is also about looking at what has already degradation) or been implemented that is protecting and preserving the environment and enhancing development. Environmental • increasing personal incomes. Impact Assessments (EIAs), Social Impact Assessments (SIAs), resource efficiency and cleaner production are This last bullet is in fact an outcome of economic fundamental aspects of green growth that have been growth, and the bullet before can be considered to be introduced in the country. part of green growth. The concept of green growth responds to the dual global Green Growth challenges of (1) expanding economic opportunities for a growing population and (2) mitigating the environmental Green growth is a relatively new model of economic pressures that could otherwise undermine our ability growth that is compatible with protecting the to take advantage of these opportunities. The strategy environment, reducing carbon and other unwanted recognizes that, just as different countries follow emissions, improving the rational use of natural different growth paths, advanced, emerging and resources, dealing with climate change, securing developing countries will also need to pursue green access to clean energy and water, and simultaneously growth differently. Each country’s starting point and targeting poverty reduction, job creation and social strategy for green growth will depend on its policies, inclusion. institutions, levels of development, natural capital and environmental vulnerabilities. Green growth integrates key aspects of economic performance, such as poverty reduction, job creation Having said that, there are common principles that all and social inclusion, with those of environmental counties pursuing green growth will need to take performance, such a mitigation of climate change into account:
8 • Capturing the importance of changes in the green urbanization and green innovation in industry, comprehensive wealth of an economy. This requires throughout both the public and private sectors. tracking the impacts of changes in all forms of capital, including not only human and physical capital, but The term green economy, therefore, refers to industry and also natural capital and intangible assets such as services that are greener than the BAU approach innovation. Each of these types of capital may have would have been, such as the manufacturing of eco- critical thresholds that, once reached, can undermine friendly materials, resource efficiency and clean well-being. production processes, renewable energy, pollution control, eco-labelling, waste management, environmental • Incorporating the dual role played by natural management, reforestation, organic farming and capital in growth. Natural assets not only provide agriculture, water and sanitation control, the provision of inputs for production, but also contribute to human sustainable public transport, environmental friendly agro- well-being, such a through the provision of clean air processes and eco-tourism. In general, green economy and water. comprises the re-design of products and processes, substituting conventional inputs for green inputs, recycling • Acknowledging that public intervention is most and reuse in internal production processes, the use of needed in investment in natural capital, as this cleaner technologies and production processes with is where market incentives for private sector greater water and energy efficiency, and the redesign investment are weakest. Once the productivity of transport and infrastructure systems, with all of this of natural assets is raised to its full potential and oriented to formal job creation, enhanced livelihoods in the inefficiencies have been eliminated, the trade-off informal sector and a reduction in poverty. between sustaining and depleting natural assets will become more pronounced. Innovation can further In practice, green economy is any industry, service or raise the potential for natural asset productivity and investment in the agriculture, energy, manufacturing, efficiency, thereby reducing the likelihood of these transport, water or any other economic sector that trade-offs. is contributing to poverty-reducing growth through lower energy consumption, GHG emissions, resource At its most basic, green growth is about integrating consumption and pollution. these considerations into national economic growth and development priorities (Putting Green Growth at the It should be noted that the broader view of green Heart of Development OECD, pp.21-22). economy does not necessarily result in higher costs overall, compared to a BAU approach. Although, individual Green Economy investments may have a higher financial cost. Green economy takes a holistic, long-term view, balancing A green economy is the outcome of a green growth immediate growth imperatives with concerns about inter- strategy. A green economy results in improved human generational equity. Upfront costs need to be weighed in well-being and social equity while it significantly reduces that context. This implies that a low social discount rate environmental risks and ecological scarcities; it is low should be used when evaluating investments. carbon, resource efficient, and socially inclusive. A green economy is focused on growth that is friendly to the Urbanization earth’s ecosystems, but it must also contribute to broad developmental goals, in particular, to poverty alleviation. It The level of urbanization is the proportion of the urban requires a transformation of production and consumption population to the total population. The rate of that enhances and preserves urbanization is the relative change in this level over a given period, usually expressed annually. environmental quality, while using energy, water and Urbanization in Rwanda is essential to support natural resources more efficiently (UNEP 2010). economic development as part of a national strategy for green growth. The level of urbanization is the Rwanda, as stated in the EDPRS2, aims to pursue a green proportion of the urban population to the total. economy approach to economic transformation through
9 In the Rwandan context it is important that a green markets for green products. Given food security concerns growth strategy for secondary cities is not an adjunct in the country, greening the sector would contribute to Rwanda’s plan to increase urbanization to 35% by to increasing productivity in the long run through the 2020, but that it extends to inform the nature of that use of green practices. By supporting green agricultural plan. This extends beyond the proposed investment practices, such as organic farming, fish farming and post- in specific green technologies (to be investigated as harvest loss reduction, Rwanda can promote job creation, part of the secondary cities strategy, see methodology nutrition and food security. below) to consider how the overall process of economic development relates to urbanization. However, noting the focus of this report on urbanization, it should be remembered that reducing rural population This means that it will be as important to consider density can have a positive impact on both rural how environmentally sustainable the main economic poverty and rural productivity with urban services and drivers of urbanization are to ensure that they are production also contributing to agricultural development ‘green’ (so EIA is an important part of the strategy) as by, for example, supplying inputs and support services to the extent to which investment in green technologies the production and processing industries to add value to to underpin sustainable production and consumption the crops and livestock products that are produced. is achieved. This means that green growth is not one part of the development strategy, but that it applies to Green jobs all aspects, such as the nature of housing, construction, transportation and other urban infrastructure, and main Green jobs are jobs provided by businesses that employment areas. Therefore, there is a need to ensure recognize environmental protection as a driver of that the focus on ‘green technologies’ extends beyond the global and national economic development. However, provision of renewable energy to consider sustainable a job can be considered green where it contributes to resource and land use. The latter, is reflected in the environmental improvement more than an equivalent particular importance of integrating spatial planning to BAU job. Paradoxically, this could include any job in sustainability in this project. a productive industry where the jobholder is simply diverted away from a previously environmentally Therefore, a sustainable model of urbanization for the destructive path (e.g. intensive farming that was secondary cities could act as a strategy to underpin green degrading soil). urbanization for Rwanda as a whole, leading not so much to rural-urban migration but to a diversification of the Other Key Terminology economy from agriculture to green technologies that increase resource productivity and self-reliance, both at a The terms adaptation, climate resilience, mitigation regional and national level. This will inform development and low-carbon development were adopted through in other locations such as those proposed for green the development of the Green Growth and Climate villages, by REMA, MINALOC and others Resilience National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development (Ministry of Natural Green agriculture Resources, Republic of Rwanda, 2011). The following working definitions were used in the mentioned Strategy Green agriculture is characterized by shifting both and will be used as the appropriated definitions for the commercial and subsistence farming towards ecologically Rwandan context. sound farming practices, such as the efficient use of water, the extensive use of organic and natural soil Adaptation nutrients, optimal tillage, integrated pest control and agro-forestry. In Rwanda, where the majority of farming Adaptation refers to additional activities needed to is small-scale, greening the small-farm sector through the prepare for climate change. This typically involves promotion and dissemination of sustainable practices specific interventions such as larger storm drains or could be the most effective way to make more food new crop varieties, but can also involve broader social available to the poor and hungry, reduce poverty, increase or economic strategies (e.g. migration to urban centers carbon sequestration and access growing international could be an adaptation strategy in some contexts).
10 Climate resilience
Climate resilience refers to a broader agenda than adaptation, as defined above. It captures activities, which build the ability to deal with climate variability – both today and in the future. Climate resilience building activities include many existing development investments including those in the agriculture, food security, health, land management and infrastructure sectors.
Mitigation
Migration refers to efforts to limit or absorb gas emissions which contribute to climate change. Emissions can be limited by moving away from dirty fossil fuels or by being more efficient when using energy (reducing consumption).
GHGs can also be removed from the atmosphere by plants. This is commonly called carbon sequestration. One way of managing the deployment of mitigation activities is through an international carbon market.
Low-carbon development
Low-carbon development is distinct from mitigation. Mitigation is mainly about cutting emissions. Low-carbon development reframes this challenge and argues that, in some cases, the low-carbon option is also the best development option for low-income countries.
For the purpose of understanding this report, we are also looking at urban-rural linkages and, therefore, planning for city-regions. We have differentiated secondary cities and secondary city districts in order to distinguish the baseline data for the districts within the secondary cities and the secondary cities themselves. In addition, the secondary city districts are relevant to this analysis as they can act as potential city-regions. As a city grows so too does the wider area over which commuting and other daily economic movements occur.
11 Executive Summary
The purpose of the project is to develop Rwandan this report, developing the growth and urbanization secondary cities as model green cities with green strategies to achieve it. And, as Rwanda is in such an early economic opportunities in order to support the stage in its urbanization process, it represents a unique economic transformation of Rwanda through green opportunity to draw on previous international experience urbanization and green growth, focusing on the to guide it in a positive, green direction. development of its secondary cities. Advances in agricultural productivity and the growth of Rwanda is making tremendous progress in human mineral exports and services, including tourism and the development and poverty reduction. It is still reliant technology sector, have contributed to Rwanda achieving on overseas development assistance to support among the highest GDP per capita growth rates in the government investment in these areas. As set out in world over the past decade or more. Still, its imports, government policy, this dependence should decrease including and especially its reliance on imported fuel over time, helped by the ongoing growth of the national oil, far exceed its exports, with overseas development economy. The international community has a strong assistance filling the gap. In order to address this, the GoR interest in maintaining a high level of support for has developed Vision 2020 and the EDPRS2 to guide the Rwanda in the near future in order for it to become a country’s next phase of development. model of sustainable development for Sub-Saharan Africa and the World. In 2015, it was proposed that new This report is focused on the development of Rwanda’s Sustainable Development Indicators come in to replace secondary cities. Through its decentralization measures, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) that have the GOR has set in place the necessary framework signposted and provided the measures for investment in policies to establish conditions and incentives that help development over the past decade. the district administrations of the secondary cities mobilize revenues and provide for urban services. Building on the MDGs, the aim will be to go beyond Implementing these policies will be essential to achieving meeting basic human needs, to promoting dynamic, the green growth objectives of the secondary cities. inclusive and sustainable development through sustainable one-world goals that apply to poor and rich With its developing geo-spatial data infrastructure and countries alike. Rwanda is well placed to become the the work of the Rwanda Natural Resource Authority role model for Sub-Saharan Africa through developing which identifies land not suitable for urban development its own vision for a green economy and, with the aid of in its National Land Use Development Master Plan,
Figure ES1: The relationship between Component 2 and the Overall Project
Component 1 Component 2 Component 3 Component 4
What is the potential for What would green How do we develop How do we build and green growth in Rwanda’s secondary city in the six secondary cities exchange capacity as secondary cities? Rwanda look like based as model green cities? we meet the program on international best objectives? Conduct preliminary practices and different Develop a National analysis on the planning scenarios? Roadmap for Enhance the capacities potential for green secondary city of government growth in Kigali and Develop a ‘Green development. employees in the area secondary cities. City’ framework and by co-developing guidelines that fit into appropriate tooles. the Rwandan secondary city context.
12 Rwanda already has a good basis for enabling local planners 3. Sustainable urbanization is key to meeting land use and at the district level to manage urban development. Political development challenges decentralization, the creation of district One-Stop Centers and other innovation in good governance are important The rapid urbanization of the country’s still largely rural milestones on the path to achieving green growth, green population and the continuing economic diversification urbanization and the green economy. away from agriculture are key to the country’s economic transformation: Key findings • This will be focused on in Rwanda’s towns and cities, 1. Rwanda is currently sustainable apart from import providing jobs and a decent standard of living for the dependency growing population. The secondary cities will also be the first to benefit from spill over from the capital. The Rwanda is already highly sustainable in global terms with benefits of urban development felt in the capital, Kigali, a tiny carbon footprint and is a net creditor in terms of will extend as the secondary cities grow in size and its contribution to the global ecological footprint. The economic importance. international community has a major interest in maintaining this. Sustainable land use is the immediate concern: • The secondary cities are already experiencing rapid growth and they will, in the fairly near future, attain a • The benefits of investment in education and health and ‘critical mass’ of urban population and economic power improving basic infrastructure, as well as, the potential and their own ‘take off’ trajectories. demographic dividend mean Rwanda can continue its path of rapid economic growth and generate investment • National and international companies will locate some in the country’s sustainable development future. or all of their activities in secondary cities rather than in Kigali once the secondary cities reach critical mass, • Because of its high rural population density and rapidly provided the necessary improvements in infrastructure growing population, Rwanda is threatened by the stress are developed. on its natural capital from farming and the use of wood for fuel. This stress is likely to intensify with climate 4. The secondary cities will need appropriate economic change. development strategies to achieve green growth
• The first EDPRS has been extremely successful in The report includes a detailed economic analysis, providing achieving its aims of reducing this stress through a baseline to address the economic potential of Kigali and increasing agricultural productivity, increasing the secondary cities for green growth. This has been done forest and natural reserves and improving human capital using available data, which is at the district level. Given data and governance. These achievements should continue to limitations, this analysis gives a strong indication of the be built on. relative strengths and weaknesses of the urban economies of the secondary cities, their comparative economic 2. A consistent framework with a well-defined economic advantages, and the ‘development anchors’ on which future rationale can make secondary cities viable as ‘growth poles green growth could be predicated:
The economic rationale provides the logical model arguing • In order to speed this process along, and to enhance from reasoned and evidence-based assumptions from their role as ‘growth poles’, the secondary cities will which the green city framework, encompassing a strategic need economic development strategies that take into and long term approach to green economic growth, green account their economic strengths and weaknesses and urbanization and green secondary city development, is build on their comparative advantage as ‘development developed. A growth pole approach to secondary city anchors’. development will be important to ensure that the secondary cities are viable as places where sufficient value is added to • Currently, the secondary cities represent about 27% of sustain employment and avoid increasing urban poverty. the country’s urban population and 4.4% of the national population. They sit within districts that have much
13 larger rural populations and which are still mainly a preliminary framework for identifying green dependent on farming to provide livelihoods and growth and infrastructure investment opportunities. support the local economy. Associated with the DDI, the Green City Framework and Guidelines of Component 2, the findings on current • By contrast, the urban area of Kigali represents and prospective urban hierarchy are a basis for further nearly 76% of the three districts that make up the work to be undertaken with the National Roadmap of province of the City of Kigali, and contains nearly Component 3. 50% of Rwanda’s urban population and 8.2% of the national population. 7. Development of urban planning capacities and national policy coordination are vital 5. The level of development differs between Kigali and the secondary city districts Improved urban governance, fiscal strengthening on an urban scale and investment in improving GGGI developed a District Development Index based planning capacities at the local level are all essential on 16 indicators grouped into 3 dimensions (human preconditions for the secondary cities achieving their resources, living conditions and local economy). The potential for green growth: districts of the City of Kigali rank at the top position for each indicator. Within the six secondary cities, • The fundamental principle in urban planning should Rubavu and Musanze score higher than average and be that any plan be aligned with the city’s capacity higher than other secondary cities. Notably, Musanze to implement it and each should be developed in line scores the highest in terms of local economy and with each other. Rubavu is the highest in terms of living conditions and human resources. At the other end of scale are • Further institutional co-ordination and urban and Huye and Muhanga. Huye scores the lowest in terms regional policy development and integration needs of local economy and living conditions, and Muhanga to occur at the national government level. Chapter scores the lowest in the human resources dimension. 4 sets out details of progress in all these areas and The DDI developed by GGGI explores the challenges offers a wide range of possible measures required for and opportunities associated with each secondary an integrated and comprehensive planning system. city. It articulates a comparison between districts in terms of current development levels and suggests • The publication of the Urbanization and Rural general infrastructure needs and development Settlement Sector Strategy and the establishment of potential. Also, it highlights areas where a data gap the Urbanization Sector Working Group demonstrate issue needs to be addressed. that the government is taking major strides in addressing these concerns through more effective 6. The geographic distribution of growth is unbalanced sector focus and co-ordination. It is absolutely vital to in Rwanda and doesn’t reflect an ‘ideal urban structure’ take this to the next level.
In order to explore the future trajectories of districts 8. Sustainable planning will play a key role in the in terms of urbanization and to complement the data development of secondary cities available in the 2012 census, GGGI developed three growth scenarios. The third scenario is based on a Rwanda’s cities will naturally gain density, as rank-size law approach where the growth of the urban increasing land values in central areas will lead to population would follow a more balanced distribution higher buildings, including apartment buildings. pattern (similar to what is observed in some middle Urban planning will need to play a leading role: income countries). The urban system of a country is considered balanced when there is a state of equilibrium • The development of higher density, compact cities between the growth of the main city and the growth should be encouraged to avoid urban sprawl. of its secondary cities. Such an analysis identifies the gap between the current situation and an ‘ideal • The secondary cities should be planned to minimize urban structure’. The results of this analysis constitute reliance on private transport, as associated fuel
14 costs and related carbon emissions will play an without looking at the physical and close economic increasingly significant role in the future. relationships to their surrounding regions. In the case of Rwanda, the districts within which the proposed • Charting a path for future sustainable consumption secondary cities are located are sufficiently large to is important. Well-planned houses making be regarded as contiguous with their ‘natural’ city maximum use of passive techniques and natural regions, however this may be defined. This needs ventilation can reduce the need for expensive, further investigation, but in most cases, the main energy-hungry air conditioning. Vehicles, administrative center is also the main service center refrigerators, cookers, lighting and electronic and market for agricultural products. goods, most of which will be imported, should all meet the highest energy efficiency standards.
9. Green technologies will enhance the opportunities for green growth in the secondary cities.
The future development of the secondary cities should focus on managing the relationship between the cities and their rural hinterland and realizing ‘network effect’ benefits:
A number of policy measures should be put in place to enhance the potential of the secondary cities to plan for their future larger metropolitan and city-regional development:
City-regional planning is necessary to enhance the potential for rural-urban linkages, with rural areas benefiting from the growth of the cities as major centers for markets and services, and the urban areas benefiting from the increasing agricultural productivity of their rural hinterlands.
Continuing development of the country’s transport and energy supply system will enhance the economic potential of the country through ‘network effects’, with the capital, secondary cities, other smaller cities, market towns, rural service centers and rural areas all working together as an efficient urban system.
Given the concerns about unbalanced growth among regions and cities, the most effective response to overcoming spatial inequality is to encourage the ‘integration of rural areas with large urban markets, mobility of labor and remittances and strong fiscal mobilization in cities – supported by intergovernmental transfer policies – rather than attempt to manipulate urban development.’
It is not possible to explore the growth of secondary cities in Rwanda from a planning perspective
15 16 Introduction
The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) is dedicated At the same time, the EDPRS2 incorporates a ‘green to pioneering and diffusing a new model of economic economy’ approach to economic transformation (Priority growth in developing and emerging countries, known as Area 5), with two interventions related to the promotion green growth, that simultaneously targets key aspects of green urbanization as well as green innovation in of economic performance, such as poverty reduction, the industrial and private sectors. Rwanda’s ambition job creation and social inclusion, as well as, those of for green economic and urban development is also environmental sustainability, such as the mitigation of manifested in the National Strategy for Green Growth climate change and biodiversity loss and the security of and Low-Carbon Development, which outlines a vision access to clean energy and water. and programs to help the country become a developed climate-resilient, low-carbon economy by 2050. Similar 1.1 Project Background and Objectives goals are set out in the Rwanda National Land Use and Development Master Plan approved in 2011. This plan Rwanda is the most densely populated country in sets the standards for sustainable urban development, Africa with a population density of 406 habitants and the next ten years will be crucial for Rwanda if the / km2. The country’s urbanization is a recent country is to succeed at meeting its urbanization goals. phenomenon with an urbanization rate of only 18%, one of the lowest percentages in the world. However, Within this context, the overall objective of the Project the 4.5% annual growth rate of the urban population is to support the GoR in implementing the EDPRS2, the far exceeds the worldwide average of 1.8%, and almost National Green Growth Strategy, and the National Land half of the urban dwellers live in the Capital, Kigali that Use and Development Master Plan, particularly in the is growing at an annual rate of 9%. area of green urbanization and green economy through secondary city development. To slow down the demographic over-concentration in Kigali and to leverage urbanization as a key The most closely related priority areas (EDPRS2) and factor in the nation’s economic transformation, the programs of action (National Green Growth Strategy) are Government of Rwanda (GoR) fixed a target to reach as shown on the figure below. an urbanization rate of 35% by 2020. This will require a growth rate above 15% for all cities and emerging cities, including Kigali. In this context, the GoR also decided to develop six secondary cities as poles of growth (Second Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy 2013-2018).
The overarching goal of the EDPRS2, derived from Vision 2020’s long-term goal of ‘creating a productive middle class and fostering entrepreneurship’, is to ‘accelerate progress to middle income status and better the quality of life for all Rwandans through a sustained growth rate of 11.5% and accelerating the reduction of poverty to less than 30% of the population.1
In the EDPRS2, the GoR addressed urbanization for the first time as a new standalone sector through Priority Area 4: “Transform the economic geography of Rwanda by facilitating and managing urbanization and promoting secondary cities as poles of economic growth”.
1 The Project does not directly support the Priority6: RHA efficiently administers government assets and manages government projects
17 Figure 1.1: Relation between the EPDRS2 and the National Green Growth Strategy
EDPRS 2 National Green Growth Strategy
Economic Transformation Sustainable land Green industry Priority (4) Transform the economic use management and ‘private sector’ geography of Rwanda by facilitating and development managing urbanization and promoting secondary cities as poles of economic growth. + +
Resilient Low carbon + transport urban systems Cross-Cutting Issue systems Environment and climate change + +
1.2 Overall Activities
1.2.1 Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan 2012/13B17/18
A Sector Strategic Plan 2013-2018 was developed Within this framework, the development of for the implementation of the EDPRS2 in the area of secondary cities is supported so that economic urbanization and rural settlement. In terms of scope, activities may be attracted to urban areas in the the Project directly supports the mission, objectives whole country, while mitigating over-concentration and priorities of the Sector aligned with the EDPRS2. in the capital being developed as a regional hub. It is planned to channel investment into urban In this national perspective, emphasis should be on infrastructure and infrastructure planning to achieving a harmonized hierarchical network of urban accommodate urban growth in the secondary cities, and rural centers, which provide services and attract and even in the development of other district centers economic activities countrywide. How to harness and IDP villages. Such interventions to cause growth urbanization for a better allocation of limited national will have an effect on the socio-economic conditions resources through different spatial and economic of citizens, if combined with good service delivery. measures? Governments try to influence the pace or location of urbanization through a series of spatial and economic policies and plans.
18 Table 1.1: Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan Related actions Mission • Rwanda’s human settlements and urbanization are sustainably managed and promoted, supporting economic development and benefiting all strata of the population. Overall • To develop the basis for good urban development management, cross-cutting all development objectives sectors and following clear guidelines and procedures at all levels of governance. • To prioritize a hierarchical network of urban and urbanizing centers that provide services and attract economic activities countrywide, and to support the development of secondary cities, as well as, the capital, Kigali. Priorities Priority 1: Improve the urban and rural settlement development planning and management system; Priority 2: Develop secondary cities as poles of growth; Priority 3: Develop urban and rural settlements around economic activities; Priority 4: Financing and supply options for affordable housing; Priority 5: Collaboration with private sector; and Priority 6: Institutional and human capacity building in urbanization and rural settlement sectors.
Figure 1.2: Conceptual hierarchy of national human settlement network Source: Sector Strategic Plan, p.52
+ East African Hub Kigali + Capital of Rwanda + National Growth Pole
+ National Urban Backbone Secondary Cities + Regional & Local Growth Pole + Specialized Industrial & Commercial Base
+ Connection to Kigali & Secondary Cities District Centers + Local Service Provider for Rural Areas
IDP Villages + Imidugudu
19 1.2.2 National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development
Under an overarching vision, for Rwanda to be a developed climate-resilient, low-carbon economy by 2050, the National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development has set a framework for mainstreaming climate change and the green growth approach in national socio-economic planning. It also provides for mechanisms to mobilize funding to finance programs identified in the process. A number of actions directly related to green urbanization will be supported by the Project, including the programs of actions below:
Table 1.2: National Strategy for Climate Change and Low-Carbon Development
Program Related actions Sustainable Land 4 • Employ an integrated approach to planning and sustainable land use management. Use Planning and Management 5 Low-Carbon Energy • Develop a strategy to phase out fossil fuels, utilize Rwanda’s domestic energy resources, Mix and increase energy efficiency. • Establish renewable energy feed-in-tariffs and public-private partnerships to encourage private investment. • Implement renewable energy guidelines and codes of practice. 7 Green Industry • Scale up resource efficiency to reduce energy and water demand, thus reducing and Private Sector emissions and promoting resilience. Development • Employ efficient and zero-waste technologies, practices and design in special economic zones and provincial industrial parks. • Establish climate innovation centers to support investment in industries producing green technologies and those adopting green technology. 9 Efficient Resilient • Promote new technologies to reduce transport emissions. Transport System • Increase investment in climate-resilient transport infrastructure. • Develop efficient operational and knowledge systems to support sustainable development. 10 Efficient Resilient • Adopt energy and water efficiency standards into building codes. Transport System • Establish an integrated multi-mode urban transport system. • Employ low-carbon urban planning. • Fully utilize urban waste as a high-value resource stream.
20 1.3 The Secondary Cities Given that there is not yet a universally applicable and agreed upon definition for the term ‘green city’, the There are 30 districts within Rwanda, each with an Project tentatively defines a ‘green city’ as a city that is administrative center with the same name as the climate resilient and low carbon, with competitive, local district. Excluding the three districts that make up the green industries well-integrated into the regional and City of Kigali, all have rural populations in the range national economic landscape, managed by a coordinated of 150-400,000, but only 23 out of the 30 have urban urban development planning system. The Project will populations greater than 10,000. Ten districts have urban seek to find out a more tailored framework and guideline populations in excess of 20,000. This work concentrates for ‘green city’ development and prioritize possible upon the largest of these, and their capitals, which have options for achieving it. been designated as secondary cities: Huye, Muhanga, Musanze, Nyagatare, Rubavu and Rusizi. The locations of Therefore, while the Project will focus on the six these are shown in the figure below. secondary cities, Huye, Musanze, Nyagatare, Rubavu, Rusizi and Muhanga, it will also aim to codify and diffuse Figure 1.3: Map of Rwanda and secondary cities lessons by dealing with implications for Kigali, and Kigali’s linkage with and interdependence on secondary cities and other districts as centers of economic activity as well as human settlement.
The EDPRS2 specifically mentions the development of a pilot green city as a flagship project for green urbanization. A more detailed approach for one selected pilot city may be required in the event of a governmental decision during the implementation of the Project.
The project consists of four Components:
• Component I: Conduct a preliminary analysis.
• Component II: Develop a ‘Green City’ framework and guideline that fits into the Rwandan secondary city context.
• Component III: Develop a National Roadmap for secondary city development.
Source: MINECOFIN, RNRA, RHA, EDPRS II, 2013 • Component IV: Enhance the capacities of government employees.
1.4 Scope of the Project 1.4.1 Component 1
The Project activities consist of conducting research and • Analyze the national and local economic structure analysis on green urbanization and the green economy of Rwanda from the perspective of a green economy potential of Rwandan secondary cities; developing a and regional integration with East Africa; assess ‘green city’ framework and guideline in the African and the green growth potential and opportunities of each Rwandan secondary city contexts; and, then, providing secondary city; strategic and practical advice for their development as model green cities. • Referring to the Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan 2013G2017, review the existing (urban) development plans to ensure integrated
21 planning and development management at national stakeholders in government (national/district), civil and district levels, as well as the inter-linkage of society, and business. spatial and economic visions, including the District Development Plan, Local Land Use and Development 1.5 Introduction to this report Plans (Local Development Plan), and the Local Urban Development Plan (Master Plan); and This report summarizes Component 1 of the Project, which is titled, “Conduct preliminary analysis on the • Review existing government policies and priorities, potential for green growth of Kigali and secondary cities”. development partner programs, and private The key tasks within this component are: investment in Kigali and the secondary cities, related to sustainable urban development and green economy. • Conduct a robust quantitative and qualitative analysis on the national and local economic structure of 1.4.2 Component 2 Rwanda from the perspective of green economy; assess the green growth potential and opportunities of • Review and assess existing African and international Kigali and each secondary city; experiences on green city and growth pole development; • Referring to the Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan 2012/13 K 2017/18 (Minister • Develop a comprehensive ‘Green City Framework of Infrastructure GoR, December 2013), review and Guideline’ consisting of at least the following four the existing (urban) development plans to ensure pillars: (i) local green economy, (ii) integrated urban integrated planning and development management at planning, (iii) climate-resilient and low-carbon city, and national and district levels, as well as, the inter-linkage (iv) city governance; and of spatial and economic visions, including the District Development Plan and the Local Urban Development • Assess the green city readiness of each secondary Plan (Master Plan); city in light of the above ‘Green City’ scheme, taking into consideration the outputs of Component 1 • Review existing government policies and priorities, (preliminary analysis). development partner programs, and private investment for Kigali and secondary cities, related to sustainable 1.4.3 Component 3 urban development and green economy; and
• On the basis of the Green City Framework and • Review and assess key technologies related to Guideline, identify and suggest sectoral policy sustainability in cities and carry out a high-level measures at national and city levels, which will be fed quantitative assessment of their potential in the into an integrated roadmap; Rwandan context.
• In close collaboration with the GoR, prioritize This report was produced in consultation with suggested sectoral policies and translate them into stakeholders and key experts. Further comments were an integrated roadmap (action plan) at national and received following the production of a draft report and city levels, ideally to be combined with the financial are incorporated into this final version of the report. The investment plan of the GoR; report also presents all the qualitative and quantitative data that has been made available to the team. • Propose short and long-term legal and institutional mechanisms for the coordination, planning and Firstly, Chapter 2 offers a quantitative and qualitative implementation of the National Roadmap, including analysis of district development. The report provides setting up an inter-ministerial steering/working group an analysis of the economic baseline in Rwanda as committee; and a whole, then, for each secondary city district and, finally, for the City of Kigali. The data collected for each • Support a participatory consultation process to secondary city district is summarized in the Appendix. bring together economic, social and environmental In order to compare the development level between
22 districts, GGGI elaborated a District Development Index (DDI) based on 16 indicators. This DDI is a neutral tool, which aims at measuring the gap between districts and identifying preliminary investment priorities in terms of infrastructure.
Chapter 3 provides a new perspective on the urban development of the districts. In order to complement the information already available in the census, GGGI has elaborated three growth scenarios. The first scenario is based on the continuation of the current trends observed in terms of birth rate, mortality and international migrations. The second scenario is based on the data of the low scenario of the census, but it also includes migrations between districts. On its side, the third scenario is based on the hypothesis that the geographic distribution of growth between Kigali and the secondary cities would reflect an ‘ideal’ urban structure similar to the structure of a sample of middle income countries. The three scenarios give preliminary indications for required infrastructure investment in order to have a more balanced urban hierarchy of cities in Rwanda.
Chapter 4 sets out the current Rwandan policy and regulatory framework context, together with other existing initiatives. This includes an assessment of the policies, priorities and plans of the Government of Rwanda that relate to integrated urban planning and to the development, economic, environmental and social dimensions of green growth and green urbanization.
Finally, Chapter 5 of the report focuses on reviewing the key existing technologies in Rwanda that relate to the green growth of the secondary cities. This complements the analysis of the current economic baseline.
23 24 Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of the District Development Level
2.1 Introduction to $1,000; reduce the poverty rate to below 30% and extreme poverty to below 9%; and achieve an annual GDP The aim of this chapter is to have a better understanding growth rate of 10% between 2013 and 2018. of the current development of Rwanda and its districts in order to establish a green rationale for this project. Rwanda’s GDP has steadily grown at a rate of more than 6% per annum since 2004, with growth peaking at 11.2% Firstly, this chapter offers an overview of the economic in 2008 and 8.2% in 2011 (World Bank, 2014). It is one baseline in Rwanda as a whole, together with the current of the fastest growing economies in the world and had local economic situation in Kigali and each of the six the fastest GDP growth in the East African Community secondary cities from the perspective of economic (EAC) in 2012 (World Bank 2013, 1). Much of Rwanda’s transformation. Where separate data was available for sustained economic growth can be partially attributed to the urban areas within these districts, this is also included expansion in the agricultural sector and increased exports with this report. with more favorable commodity prices (AfDB, 2012). Significant growth in the mining sector has played a role Secondly, this chapter analyzes the overall process of in lifting the value of exports as it grew 15.5%. Growth of urbanization in Rwanda, including how the social and the industry and services sectors contributed significantly environmental factors can be reflected in (economic) to economic expansion, growing by 15.1% and 7.2 % decision making, such as for greening industry, respectively in 2011 (AfDB, 2012). However, as a result agriculture and electricity supply. Together, this provides of low international prices and weaker production of tin, a an understanding of both the current situation and primary mineral export, the industrial sector saw a sharp possible pathways for economic development that draw contraction in 2012 and grew at a rate of 7.2% , compared on the concepts of green growth to be implemented in to growth of 17% the previous year (World Bank, 2013). stages as they become practical over the short, medium The sustained economic growth Rwanda is experiencing and long term. has been in spite of the global economic downturn and financial crisis, which largely curtailed global economic Finally, this chapter provides a preliminary assessment growth between 2008 and 2014. of the existing urban development disparities between the 30 districts of the country, including the City of Kigali 2.2.1 Services and Infrastructure and the secondary cities (Huye, Muhanga, Musanze, Nyagatare, Rubavu, Rusizi). In order to measure and rank Rwanda’s economy is characterized by the economic the current development of districts, GGGI developed importance of its service sector, which makes up a District Development Index (DDI) based on three key approximately 50% of its GDP (AfDB 2012, 4). The dimensions of urbanization: human resources, living expansion of the service sector has contributed conditions and the local economy. The data obtained from significantly to Rwanda’s economic growth. Transport the DDI will provide a basis for prioritizing infrastructure and communications was the fastest growing service investment, an essential part of the roadmap associated sub-sector and expanded by nearly 20% in 2012, to the component 3. followed by financial services (World Bank, 2013). The boom in mobile phone connectivity in recent years has 2.2 National Economic Profile contributed to this development, which has had a knock- on effect in the financial services sector. Several key government policies aimed at achieving high economic growth and poverty reduction underpin Vision 2020 set a target for 35% of the population to Rwanda’s economic performance. The Government of have access to energy (up from 13%) and to reduce the Rwanda has instituted a range of policies that have helped rate of biomass used from 85% to 50% (REMA 2010). The stimulate growth, such as reducing taxes on fuel, in 2011 environmental effects of using unsustainable biomass are and 2012 respectively, which reduced the price of fuel by severe and lead to deforestation. Therefore, currently 10%, and supporting initiatives like the used fuels, such as firewood and charcoal, need to be Crop Intensification Program to increase agricultural substituted with more sustainable and environmental exports (AfDB, 2012). Principal among the GoR’s policies friendly options. Research has shown that 80% of the is the EDPRS 2, which aims to: increase the GDP per capita firewood used by households is foraged at no cost to the
25 end-user, meaning the economy does not directly benefit changing over time and that more off-farm jobs are being from this activity, as the resource is not bought or sold created (World Bank, 2013). Increasing productivity (Theuri, 2007)2. Biomass energy currently comes at a and transforming agriculture from a subsistence-based significant cost to the national economy. market to a market-based activity was a priority of the EDPRS I. The flagship Crop Intensification Program (CIP) Electricity accounts for only 5% of Rwanda’s primary has led to significant gains toward these objectives: energy use. Rwanda’s electricity consumption is one of the lowest in its region and has an installed capacity of • Production of cereals tripled between 2000 and 2010; 100MW serving approximately 13% of the population. Hydropower accounts for about 59% of installed • Production of pulses and roots increased by 58% and capacity with thermal generation via hired diesel and 79% respectively; heavy oil fuel-based generation units accounting for 40%. Methane gas accounts for 1% at present, although • The average value of production doubled between 2000 this is likely to increase as the KivuWatt project moves and 2010; through its phases. Currently, Rwanda sources half of its electricity generation from hydropower. However, access • In 2011 30% of farmers reported having purchased to electricity remains low at only 13% of the population fertilizers as opposed to 7% in 2000 (World Bank, and 39% of the electricity generation capacity comes 2013). from oil-based imports at a high-cost to the economy and the environment (GoR, 2011). Green energy, using solar, For the agricultural sector, green strategies could be geothermal, biogas and methane gas could generate integrated to intensify production and generate higher as much as 1,000 MW of power – enough to meet the yields. To that end, the GoR has identified the following projected demand of 400MW by 2020 (GoR, 2011). priorities: Development of these sources would underpin growth across sectors and aid in the structural transformation of • Expand crop varieties for import substitution and Rwanda’s economy. climate resilience;
Green investments across sectors have become an • Add value to those products through processing to objective of the government and could contribute meet its own market demand for food stuffs; significantly to Rwanda’s economic growth strategy and economic diversification. Investments in infrastructure • Develop decentralized village-based agricultural that could alleviate the major bottlenecks stifling growth processing centers that incorporate low-carbon sources in all sectors are needed on a large scale, especially in the of energy, such as biogas-digesters and solar driers; and power sector. A wealth of opportunities in renewable energy and water supply could contribute to wider • Develop niche export crops under organic and fair-trade growth objectives on a national scale. branding (GoR, 2011).
2.2.2 Agriculture 2.2.3 Industry
Agriculture is the backbone of Rwanda’s economy and Rwanda’s industrial policy set an 11% per annum growth employs over 70% of the country’s workforce. Growth target for the industrial sector in order for Rwanda to in the agriculture sector has gone hand-in-hand with achieve the targets set out in Vision 2020 with regards a decline in its share of GDP. The share of agriculture to achieving a structural economic transformation. The in Rwanda’s GDP fell from 45% in 2001 to 34% in industrial sector comprises just 15% of GDP and mainly 2011, a sign that the structure of Rwanda’s economy is consists of low-tech resource-based manufactures and
2 Theuri, D., (2007). Energy Sector Costing to meet Rwanda’s Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) and the East Africa Community Regional Access to Modern Energy Services Strategy. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi.
26 construction and employs only 4% of the workforce Trade and Industry prepared the Kivu Belt Sub-Master (EICV3, 2013). The industrial sector is plagued by Plan. The key objective of this project is to accelerate infrastructure bottlenecks, especially insufficient energy tourism infrastructural development, which services supply. The EICV3 study reported that a key contributing newly developed products along the coastline of Lake factor to low capacity utilization is unstable electricity Kivu, a region where tourism attractions are undoubtedly supply. The strong growth rates that the sector saw in underdeveloped and offering many as yet untapped 2010 and 2011 resulted from a government program opportunities that could form an integral part of a with the objective of building new low-income housing. sustainable tourism development plan. However, much of the gains were lost when the program ended in 2012 (World Bank, 2013). 2.3 General District Profiles
2.2.4 Trade Performance Currently, the secondary cities represent about 25% of the country’s urban population. They sit within Rwanda has a substantial current account deficit (11% districts that have much larger rural populations and of GDP in 2012). Therefore, expanding the export base which are still largely dependent on farming to provide is essential for generating foreign exchange to reduce livelihoods and support the local economy. The largest the deficit and create resilience against external shocks of the secondary cities, Rubavu, contains about 36% of (World Bank, 2013). Rwanda’s low resource base and the population of the district within which it is located, its land-locked status are major constraints to its export Musanze nearly 28%. Nyagatare city has just 10% of performance. High transport costs increase the price of the Nyagatare District, while Huye, Muhanga and Rusizi imported goods and inputs, which further exacerbate cities each have around 16% of the population of their the deficit. Rwanda’s trade deficit rose to 17% of GDP in districts. By contrast, the urban area of Kigali represents 2011 but has not curtailed the growth of imports (AfDB, nearly 76% of the three districts that make up the 2012). Since 2010, exports have grown at an annual rate province of the City of Kigali. of more than 20%, 25% on average, which has outpaced the growth of imports, which have grown at 15% on The following Figure 2.1 illustrates the population average over the same period (NISR, 2013). While export distribution of Rwanda by district. It shows the growth has been strong it has not been sufficient to offset predominance of the three districts forming the City of the growth of imports and reduce the trade deficit as the Kigali in terms of urban population and urban employed value of imports is more than double the value of exports population. It is possible to notice that the population of – see figure above and below. More than 70% of exports Rubavu – a second city of Rwanda – is not a fifth of the are made up of coffee, tea and minerals (AfDB, 2012). population of Kigali. Rwanda’s top imports are petroleum products, vehicles and products for milling industries (World Bank, 2013). The report has carried out a detailed analysis, providing a baseline for addressing the economic potential of Kigali 2.2.5 Sustainable Tourism and the secondary cities for green growth. This has been done using the available data, which is at district level. Rwanda is an emerging ecotourism destination and is, Apart from limited coverage in local urban development therefore, trying to diversify from solely gorilla trekking plans, economic data at the urban level is not currently to create new attractions such as in the Nyungwe available. Therefore, the assessment of the report is National Park near Rusizi. Enhancing sustainable based on imputing the likely concentration of non- ecotourism in Nyungwe National Park through the agricultural activities in the secondary cities. Even so, development of sustainable financing mechanisms this gives a strong indication of the relative strengths and for the conservation and management of the park are weaknesses of the urban economies of the secondary supported by USAid. This project intends to develop new cities, their comparative economic advantages, and the and diverse revenue sources by developing a market for ‘development anchors’ on which future green growth ecosystems services, such as water provision and carbon could be predicated. sequestration. Similar efforts are ongoing at two other national parks in Rwanda, the Volcanoes National Park Many of these districts have similar economic structures; and Akagera National Park. Also, in 2013 the Ministry of agriculture employs the majority of the population.
27 Figure 2.1: Urban population of Rwanda by district
This is true for all of the secondary city districts, with migration of each district, which is the difference agriculture employing over 67% of the workforce, with between the immigration and emigration populations. the exception of Rubavu District (where around 49% of the workforce are employed in agriculture). Urbanization A positive value explains that the influx of the population is normally predicated on a shift away from agriculture is dominant in the district. The data is based on the 2012 toward higher value- added activities in manufacturing census, which reflects a 5-year migration trend (RPHC4). and services. Historically, this process has contributed to It is possible to appreciate that while the City of Kigali the structural transformation of economies around the is the main destination for internal migrations, most world; but it has also created cities that attract migrants districts in the eastern parts of the country show negative from rural areas to benefit from higher income activities. migration patterns.
While, the secondary city districts are growing and In addition to the specific situations in each of the existing opportunities are attracting people from secondary cities, national statistics confirm that there other areas, only the Nyagatare and Rubavu Districts is relative consistency across the secondary cities in currently have a population growth rate higher than the terms of: access to education across all built up areas; national average of 2.6%. While population growth is widespread use of homemade, or locally produced, not an impressive statistic across the six secondary city building materials in all areas outside Kigali; low levels districts, population density is higher than the national of computer literacy (including in Kigali); and continued average in all of the six with the exception of Nyagatare. reliance upon agriculture for employment and household These population density numbers suggest that a form income, except in Kigali and the trading cities of Rubavu of urbanization is taking place in the six secondary city and Rusizi. districts. However, urbanization in the form of increasing population density in a locality without economic growth Also, Rwanda’s industrial sector struggles to compete and opportunities to match would be cause for concern. with regional competition and mainly exports commodities to the international market. The following The next map illustrates the current migration patterns profiles identify the main industries in each of the between districts. The following map shows the net secondary cities, which all suffer from low capacity
28 Figure 2.2: Net migration patterns between districts
utilization. Low capacity utilization means that the efficient water use, extensive use of organic and natural value addition operations are not performing at their soil nutrients, optimal tillage, integrated pest control and full capacity. Rubavu‘s manufacturers are some of agro-forestry. A low level of mechanization in farming in the few that have a plant capacity utilization that is these areas means that farming isn’t an extremely high above the national average in several industries. This carbon producing activity. However, other opportunities may be a contributing factor to why Rubavu has the exist for improving sustainable practices and achieving highest percentage of its workforce engaged in off-farm higher crop yields. activities. The following pages provide a detailed economic analysis All industries in the six secondary cities cited insufficient of the six secondary city districts, structured to provide energy supply and working capital as major constraints key information against the four pillars mentioned above. to achieving operational efficiency. This has been recognized at the national level and is cited as a key 2.3.1 City of Kigali constraint to industrial growth in the National Industrial Policy. Like many of Rwanda’s hindrances to growth, Kigali is comprised of three administrative districts: green options exist for the energy sector that could yield Gasabo, Kicukiro, and Nyarugenge, which have a environmental as well as monetary dividends. combined population of 1.2 million (Kigali City, 2013). Kigali’s population is growing at a rate of 6.2% each year, The energy sector is not the only sector with which is more than double the 2.6% national average. opportunities for greening. A number of opportunities The city covers 730 km2 and is expanding at a rate of 28 exist to green the agricultural sector, such as more km2 each year, translating to 4% (World Bank, 2012). The
29 rapid growth that Kigali is experiencing is a significant 2.3.2 Huye challenge for public authorities and their ability to manage and plan metropolitan/urban infrastructure and Huye is the former capital of Rwanda-Urundi. Previously facilities. called Astrida, it is currently home to the national university, but there are plans to decentralize the The rapid expansion and urbanization of Kigali City university to different locations across the country. is a key driver in the need for green secondary cities. Huye has the third highest population density of all the Kigali acts as the hub that links Rwanda to the global six secondary cities: significantly above the national economy and has the best infrastructure and access to average. Agriculture is a mainstay of Huye’s economy, services in the country, making it the preferred location but only 12% of its farmers use organic fertilizer. for many more advanced businesses and industries. Huye has significant opportunities for resource-based As a result, a significant number of workers migrate to manufacturing, but many of its plants operate at less the capital in search of economic opportunities. Much than 50% capacity. Rice production, which processes of the agricultural produce and raw materials from all the largest volume, only operates at 18% of operational over the country are destined to Kigali for processing capacity. Irregular electricity supply and insufficient or consumption. For example, Inyange Industries working capital have been cited as major hindrances to processes milk in Nyagatare but has its headquarters and efficient production. Hydropower (particularly small- manufacturing facilities in Kigali. scale hydro) could contribute a lot to reducing the shortfall in energy, which would both increase Huye’s These and other factors make Kigali an attractive green energy profile and act as an economic driver. destination. The city’s existing challenge is to provide basic services for a significant number of its current 2.3.3 Muhanga residents is heightened by its growing population. For this reason, if green urbanization strategies do not Muhanga is the closest to Kigali of the six secondary underpin Kigali’s urbanization, growth is likely to occur cities and much of its agricultural produce is destined for at the expense of the environment and other potential Kigali. However, Muhanga has the slowest population economic gains. While further urbanization will be growth rate of all the six secondary cities, as some of its necessary to further Kigali’s, and by extension, Rwanda’s residents migrate to Kigali in search for opportunities. industrial development, it is important that this is At 1.1, Muhanga’s population growth rate is less than properly planned to ensure that the growth of Kigali is half of the national average of 2.6%. In addition to having not at the expense of growth in the secondary cities and the slowest population growth rate, Muhanga is the elsewhere. Having sustainable secondary cities would least populated of all of the secondary cities, but has a therefore relieve some of the growing economic and population density that is above the national average. environmental pressure being experienced by Kigali. Agriculture employs nearly 80% of Muhanga’s district Developing green growth strategies for the secondary workforce. 12% of Muhanga’s farmers use organic cities will require these cities to choose a path that fertilizer while 30% use chemical fertilizer. As agriculture develops existing economic opportunities as sustainably is the largest part of Muhanga’s economy, efforts to green as practicable while establishing new opportunities it and encourage the use of organic fertilizers would (both technologically and in terms of employment) that generate substantial returns. fit within the green framework. Kigali is also likely to continue to play an important role in the value chain A large portion of Muhanga’s workforce (71%) is of the majority of the green growth opportunities employed in the informal sector. Outside of the established in the secondary cities. Therefore, it is agricultural sector, trade, industry and construction crucial to understand Kigali’s role as the economic, are Muhanga’s largest sectors. A number of mining administrative and strategic centerpiece of Rwanda, and operations are active in Muhanga, but the mineral its changing urban and economic dynamics. processing plant operates at only 20% capacity. Small- scale hydropower and other sustainable technologies could improve the productivity of various industries in Muhanga aside from mining.
30 Muhanga has the potential to become a financial services quarrying for granite will generate income and could hub due to the number of banks that have already attract workers, it has the potential for increasing impact established offices there. This could greatly improve the upon the local environment. number of off-farm jobs and bring more individuals into the formal economy and enlarge that tax base. 2.3.5 Rubavu
Muhanga has a high poverty rate with 53% of its Rubavu is known for being a major tourist destination population living below the poverty line and 24% living in and trading post. It sits on the edge of Lake Kivu and extreme poverty. This will continue to be a challenge to shares the border with Goma in DRC, which is more than the green growth process and affordable green housing twice its size. The methane gas project, KivuWatt, located will be integral to making growth inclusive. on Lake Kivu is Rwanda’s largest-ever private investment and its first independent power project. While the 2.3.4 Nyagatare project sets Rubavu apart from the other potential secondary cities, its technological complexity poses a The highest district growth rate (6.2%) is in Nyagatare major challenge in terms of Rubavu being able to actually District. Part of the explanation for the high growth is benefit from the project through job creation and an even likely to lie in Nyagatare having the lowest population lower carbon energy supply for the local community. density (243 people/km2) – in fact it is the only district in the sample that has a population density less than Rubavu is the only secondary city district where the national average (341 people/km2). This makes agriculture employs less than 50% of the workforce. This Nyagatare both the largest and the fastest growing of is an important indicator as off-farm jobs have a greater the six secondary cities with a population growth rate potential to attract workers, especially younger workers at least twice the national average. While Nyagatare’s is who are less interested in working in the traditional rapidly growing it remains the least densely populated sector and currently tend to migrate to Kigali seeking of the six secondary cities – less so than the national economic opportunities. Rubavu does have several average. Overall, there is a relative lack of certain types large industries that provide employment for its local of infrastructure in Nyagatare, reflecting the difficulties population. Rubavu is also home to Bralirwa Breweries, in keeping pace with rapid immigration and population a beverage manufacturer that produces beer and juices. growth in this location. All of Rubavu’s industries operate at a higher level of efficiency than the national average with the exception of These factors make Nyagatare an interesting case study the cheese factories (which, like elsewhere, suffer from for green growth and sustainable development. unstable energy supply, as well as, a shortage of quality milk and technical skills). Nyagatare is well known for its large cattle population and produces much of Rwanda’s milk. Inyange Industries Aside from Nyagatare, Rubavu is the only other secondary is a leading food processing company in Rwanda. Its city whose population is growing at a faster rate than manufactures a variety of dairy products and makes its the national average. Rubavu’s most remarkable urban milk in Nyagatere. However, Nyagatare’s processing feature is that it has the highest population density of all plant, Savannah Dairy, operates at only 22% of its total of the six secondary cities. These features make Rubavu capacity: well below the national average of 39%. The the only secondary city that both has a population density factory suffers from inadequate power supply as well as and growth rate higher than the national average; making a skills deficit that Inyange Industries aims to address it the fastest urbanizing secondary city. through investment. 2.3.6 Musanze East African Granite is another large industry in Nyagatare concentrated on quarrying, manufacturing Musanze is well known as a tourism hub. It has a and installing granite products. They operate at 60% relatively lower level of poverty than the other secondary capacity, which makes it the most efficient large cities, comparable to that of Kigali. industry in the area. However, land management and environmental oversight capacity is limited. So, while It is close to the Virunga National Park, one of Rwanda’s
31 largest tourist attractions. It is also relatively close to capacity. However, the use of peat is controversial as the Lake Kivu. Musanze has several well-established hotels international community regards this as a non-green and restaurants to support its tourism industry. However, solution. The government has stated its willingness as most of the tour operators are based in Kigali or come to conduct feasibility studies to better understand from Kampala, there is less control over whether the the potential environmental impact that the project activities are environmentally friendly and conducted in may cause. Other than cement, Rusizi has a number of the spirit of conservation. resource- based manufacturers that process rice, tea and other locally grown produce. All of them operate at less Musanze district has the second highest population than 30% capacity as a result of insufficient power supply density of the six secondary cities. However, its high and low skill levels. population density is not matched with particular population growth, as with Rubavu District above. Rusizi has the second highest population of the Musanze reports the second lowest population growth secondary cities and is growing at 2% per annum, below figures of the six secondary cities. Given the current high the national average of 2.6%. It is the farthest secondary population density and planning constraints, accelerated city from Kigali. Its location on the border with DRC and population growth could exacerbate resources if Burundi has led it to a substantial amount of trade and sustainable, green approaches are not considered. logistics opportunities. At five persons per household, it also has the highest mean household size in Rwanda. Agriculture is a vital part of Musanze’s economy and Rusizi’s population density is also above the national employs 67% of the workforce. Musanze produces average. These combined factors are placing stresses on nearly 25% of Rwanda’s wheat. Recent developments in the district’s existing infrastructure and resources. construction materials (in particular STRAWTEC) could see Musanze become a preferred supplier of wheat bi- 2.4 District Development Index (DDI) products for sustainable construction materials. Based on 16 key performance indicators (-PI), GGGI Musanze has the second highest off-farm employment developed a District Development Index (DDI). The figures as a result of its tourism oriented service industry index offers a simplified measurement tool that can be and a strong construction industry. Greater electricity used to examine and analyze development disparities generation capacity could improve these industries and and investment opportunities. The results are intended their performance. Currently, there are two hydropower helping policymakers formulating green urbanization stations in Musanze, one of which was built in the plans for each secondary city. The DDI was elaborated Mutobo sector while the other has yet to be completed. based on consultation with stakeholders, government officials, and experts. 2.3.7 Risizi The aim of the DDI is to understand the development Like many of the secondary cities, agriculture employs patterns of the districts. It offers a neutral perspective on the majority of Rusizi’s workforce (70%).However, the current situation. A similar tool developed in Korea in economic opportunities already exist in other sectors, the context of the national territorial planning approach such as trade and low-tech industry. In particular, Rusizi inspired the preparation of the DDI. In the Korean context is home to Cimerwa Cement which is Rwanda’s largest the aim of the tool was to provide a more balanced urban cement producer. High-quality local limestone deposits development between Seoul and secondary cities and to make Rusizi the ideal location for cement production. guide investment in infrastructure consequently. The factory has an installed capacity of 100,000 tons per annum and operates at approximately 85% capacity. 2.4.1 Specific Methodology
The cement factory already has a regional market for its The development of the index is based on five steps. product and plans to expand the production capacity to The activities related to every step are described in 700,000 tons over several years. The plant will use a dry the following sections. Figure 2.3 shows the general manufacturing process and a combination of peat and methodology associated with DDI. heavy fuel oil to reduce fuel costs and expand production
32 Figure 2.3 DDI’s Methodology
Operation of a Key performance computer model Data gathering Weighting of KPI Cluster analysis indicators and analysis of selection results
Data gathering process (AHP) – the weighting between three selected dimensions and to determine the weighting of relative First, a review of available data has been performed. This importance among indicators within each dimension. The research focused primarily on the following sources: AHP is a methodological tool that uses multiple criteria to derive ratio scales between paired comparisons. • NISR, the 2012 Population and Housing Census; The survey was conducted by email in November • NISR, the third Integrated Household Living Condition 2015 among stakeholders, government officials and Survey; international experts. The respondents were asked to complete a short questionnaire, which ask them to make • The Ministry of Health, Annual Health Statistics pair-wise comparisons. These comparisons were made Booklet 2012; for every possible pair of indicators within 3 dimensions.3
• The Ministry of Education, 2012 Educational Statistics Within each dimension the relative weight of each Yearbook; indicator was variable. For example, within the ‘Living Conditions’ dimension the indicator ‘Electricity • Local Government Revenue Potential; and distributors used for lighting’ was considered like the one with the greatest weight to the participants (27%). In • The Establishment Census 2012 second place comes ‘Environmental Disaster’ (19%), then the ‘Number of Health Facility’. The data scope was standardized at the district level in order to comply with analysis of the secondary Operation of a computer model and analysis of results cities and in consideration of the lack of available data at the sector level. Also, the data with low variance Following the weighting of each of the dimensions and was excluded due to challenges related to obtaining indicators, the data were integrated in a computer meaningful results. In addition, correlation among model for analysis. The results were later analyzed indicators was checked, and indicators that were highly and organized in order to identify the most interesting correlated to others were excluded. findings.
Key performance indicators selection Cluster Analysis
The indicators have been selected based on In the context of the urban growth scenarios, the consultation with experts, benchmarking other similar districts have been grouped into clusters based on studies, careful review of available data, and a keen the results obtained by the District Development understanding of the Rwandan national context. Index. Therefore, such an analysis complements the Moreover, the number of indicators was adjusted DDI and contributes to the measuring of district considering a balance among the 3 dimensions. The growth in accordance with demographic changes and following table specifies the indicators for each development indicators. dimension and their source: Cluster analysis or clustering is the task of grouping a set Weighting of KPI of entities in such a way that entities in the same group (called a cluster) are more similar (in one sense or another) In order to establish a weighting for each indicator, a to each other than to those in other groups (clusters). survey was conducted. The survey attempted to elicit Clustering allows for the measurement of the distance feedback on the selection and use of specific indicators between variables and the grouping of similar cluster. in the DDI. Divided into two parts, the survey intent was to determine – on the basis of an analytical hierarchy
3 The relative weight of each dimension was also analyzed. However, on the basis of the responses and using the AHP, it is possible to state that the three dimensions haven a relatively similar weight. Based on the AHP, the weight of each dimension is the following: Human Resources 26%, Living Conditions 35%, Local Economy: 39%.
33 Table 2.1 DDI’s Dimensions and Indicators of DDI
Dimension Indicator Detailed Information Source Human Size of the urban Percentage of the population living in urban NISR, 2012 population and housing Resource population areas census Population density Population density inhabitants per square km NISR, 2012 population and housing census Level of education Distribution of the resident population aged 19 NISR, 2012 population and housing of residents years and above by highest level of education census secondary school attained Size of young adult Percentage of young adults in total population NISR, 2012 population and housing population aged 14-15 years census Population growth Population growth rate CAGR: 2002 - 2012 NISR, 2012 population and housing rate census Living Access to improved Percentage of households with access to NISR, The Third Integrated Conditions drinking water improved drinking water Household Living Conditions Survey Access to improved Percentage of households with access to NISR, The Third Integrated sanitation facilities improved sanitation facilities Household Living Conditions Survey Access to lighting Percentage of population whose primary fuel NISR, The Third Integrated using electricity used for lighting is electricity distributors Household Living Conditions Survey distributors Problems resulting Number of households experiencing one or NISR, The Third Integrated from environmental more of the following: floods, erosion, reduction Household Living Conditions Survey destruction in agricultural production, climatic change, famine/ drought, destructive rains, loss of soil fertility Number of health National referral hospitals, district hospitals, Ministry of Health, Annual Health facility police/military hospitals, health centers, health Statistics Booklet 2012 posts, prison dispensaries, private dispensaries, private clinics Number of Number of secondary schools in 2012 by Ministry of Education, 2012 secondary schools district Education Statistics Yearbook Local Employment rate Employment rates NISR, The Third Integrated Economy Household Living Conditions Survey Employment in Percentage of off-farm employment NISR, The Third Integrated non-agricultural Household Living Conditions Survey sector Local government Total revenue collected from taxes Local Government Revenue Potential revenue Total Purchase of food, other non-food items, NISR, The Third Integrated Consumption education, vaccination, rent, maintenance, Household Living Conditions Survey water, electricity Number of Distribution of operating establishment by Establishment Census 2011 Companies district
34 2.4.2 Key Findings
The results obtained following the operation of the computer model offer a distinction between Kigali and the rest of the country, as well as, between districts. As shown in the following graphic, the three districts of Kigali (Nyarugenge, Gasabo, and Kicukiro) have the highest development index in Rwanda (combined average of 0,85).
Figure 2.4: Rwanda District Development Index (DDI)
The following table shows the ranking of the first to the thirteenth districts in terms of development level. The districts of the City of Kigali are in gray and the secondary cities are in light blue. The district of the secondary city of Huye appears in the 20th position.
Table 2.2: Ranking of districts (1 to 13th) based on DDI District District Development Index Rank (1 to 13) Gasabo (City of Kigali) 0,86 1 Nyarugenge(City)of Kigali) 0,82 2 Kicukiro (City of Kigali) 0,80 3 Rubavu 0,64 4 Gicumbi 0,56 5 Musanze 0,54 6 Rusizi 0,50 7 Rwamagana 0,48 8 Muhanga 0,47 9 Gakenke 0,46 10 Nyagatare 0,46 11 Rulindo 0,45 12 Nyamasheke 0,45 13 Huye 0,41 20
35 The next map illustrates the geographic distribution of development between districts in Rwanda. The red lines identify the secondary city districts.
Figure 2.5: Distribution of development between districts based on DDI
Furthermore, the average development index of the six secondary cities (0,51) is higher than the average of other districts – excluding Kigali and the secondary cities (0,40). In total, the national average for the 30 districts is 0,47.
Figure 2.6: DDI average - City of Kigali and secondary city districts
District Development Index 1,00
0,80 0,85
0,60 0,51 0,40 0,45 0,40 0,20
0,00 Kigali city Average of six Average of others Average of total secondary cities excluding Kigali and 30 districts six secondary cities
36 Within the six secondary cities, Rubavu and Musanze score higher than the average and higher than the other secondary cities. Notably, Musanze scores the highest in terms of local economy and Rubavu scores the highest in terms of living conditions and human resources. On the opposite end of the scale, Huye scores the lowest in terms of local economy and living conditions, while Muhanga scores the lowest in the human resources dimension. The following charts illustrate the positioning of each of the districts in the three dimensions of analysis.
Figure 2.7: Index of secondary city districts with regards to Human Resources, Living Conditions and Local Economy
Human Resources 1,00
0,80 0,75
0,60 0,45 0,40 0,44 0,57 0,48 0,37 0,43 0,20 Muhanga Rusizi Nyagartare Average 0,00 Huye Rubavu Musanze
Living Conditions 1,00
0,80
0,60 0,64 0,60 0,40 0,54 0,43 0,45 0,48 0,39 0,20
0,00 Huye Muhanga Rubavu Rusizi Musanze Nyagartare average
Local Economy 1,00
0,80
0,60 0,60 0,66 0,40 0,45 0,46 0,48 0,46 0,36 0,20
0,00 Huye Muhanga Rubavu Rusizi Musanze Nyagartare average
37 A more detailed analysis of the results associated with each of the indicators allows for a better understanding of the factors influencing the score obtained by each district.
Table 2.3: Index of the city of Kigali and the secondary city district with regards to the 16 indicators
Notably, the level of development the City of Kigali (an average of the three districts comprising the city) is higher than the national average for most indicators associated with human resources. Within the secondary cities the district of Rubavu scores the highest because the indicators related to the ‘youth population’ and the ‘size of the urban population’ are high, while Muhanga scores the lowest, mostly due to slower population growth.
Figure 2.8: Human Resource Index of the secondary city districts
For the Living Conditions dimension, the district of Rubavu scores the highest because it shows stronger indicators in terms of accessibility to improved drinking water and environmental disaster, this in spite of a low score in terms of the number of health facilities. Huye, on the other hand, scores the lowest, particularly on the indicators related to environmental disaster and accessibility to improved sanitation facilities.
38 Figure 2.9: Living Conditions Index of the secondary city districts
Finally, with regards to the dimension of Local Economy the following charts show that the district of Musanze has the highest development index due to an above average score on all indicators, while Huye has the lowest score based on a low economic activity rate and operating establishment indicators.
Figure 2.10: Local Economy Index of the secondary city districts
39 2.4.3 Cluster Analysis
The following diagram shows the current urban development of Rwanda based on the DDI developed by GGGI. Based on the comparison and analysis of indicators grouped into the three dimensions (human resource, living conditions and local economy) the cluster analysis groups the districts into 4 categories.
Figure 2.11: Clusters of secondary city districts based on DDI
Due to a high DDI, the City of Kigali stands at the top of the current development hierarchy in Rwanda. The districts of the secondary cities of Rubavu, Rusizi and Musanze, and the district of Gicumbi are in the second category. Finally, the districts of the secondary cities of Nyagatare, Muhanga and Huye are part of a third cluster, due to a lower DDI.
It has to be noted that the DDI is a neutral tool prepared by GGGI in order to analyze the current level of development in Rwanda. The selection process of the secondary cites in March 2013 is based on a rigorous multi-criteria approach that includes a cultural, historic and strategic perspective. Therefore, it is normal that some secondary cities do not fall within the first ranks of the national urban hierarchy, as identified by the DDI. However, it does mean that the secondary city districts with lower scores would require more investment in some areas of urban development to reach the national average.
40 Figure 2.12: Hierarchy of districts based on DDI cases, below the national average. By and large, low- skilled resource base manufactures comprise the bulk of off-farm industrial opportunities in most secondary city districts. As a number of the secondary cities are close to the international borders, trade has created Kigali opportunities for a significant portion of the workforce in border locations. In the current situation, the weaknesses of industrial activity or service sector opportunities indicates that a significant portion of the workforce migrates to Kigali for employment. This has negative Rubavu + Rusizi + Musanze + Gicumbi effect on growth, as is evidenced by Muhanga’s extremely low growth rate due to its proximity to Kigali.
Moreover, the DDI developed by GGGI explores the challenges and opportunities associated with each Nyagatare + Muhanga + Rwamagana + Gakenke + secondary city. It articulates a comparison between Ngororero + Rulindo + Nyamsaheke +Gatsibo + Nyanza districts in terms of current development levels and Ruhango + Karongi + Ngoma + Huye + Kayonza suggests general infrastructure needs and development potential. Also, it highlights areas where a data gap issue needs to be addressed.
The DDI is a first attempt to derive a development index Nyaruguru + Gisagara + Rutsiro + Kamonyl + Bugesera in Rwanda. The following areas are limitations that Nyamagabe + Burera + Nyabihu + Kirehe should be considered in the future:
• There is a lack of data on green growth indicators. The DDI and the cluster analysis form a template to clarify the future urban hierarchy of the country. In particular, the • Development level status is evaluated at the district identification of the current development level is a first level because data for cities is limited. step, indicating investment needs and helping to assess gaps at the national level. • Most of the data used was published in 2012.
2.5 Conclusion • Time-series analysis was not possible.
The detailed assessment of the development level of the The analysis identifies a preliminary framework for green districts has been revealing in terms of their potential to growth and infrastructure investment opportunities. become green cities with green economic opportunities. Associated to the Green City Framework and Guideline Many cities have a lower population growth rate but of Component 2, these preliminary findings constitute a a higher population density than the national average. basis for further work to be undertaken with the national The exceptions are the Nyagatare district, which has a roadmap associated with Component 3. lower population density than the national average, and Rubavu, which is the only secondary city district whose population is growing faster than the national average and whose economy has a workforce of which fewer than 50% are employed in the agricultural sector.
Economic opportunities for most of the secondary city districts are currently heavily concentrated in agriculture. Many plants run well below their capacity and, in many
41 42 43 District Growth Scenarios
The aim of this chapter is to explore future trajectories an opportunity for comparison. Each scenario has a in terms of urbanization. In order to define a prospective distinct impact on the future urban hierarchy of Rwanda future population for secondary city districts, GGGI has and provides food for thought in terms of investment developed three growth scenarios based on objective prioritization. demographic, economic and spatial indicators that reflect strategic options for the Government of Rwanda. 3.1.1 First Scenario
The basic scenario is based solely on a continuation The first scenario (the baseline scenario) is based on 2012 of the birth, mortality and international migration trends in terms of mortality, fertility, and international patterns observed. migration. In this scenario it is assumed that demographic trends will remain the same until 2032. On the other hand, the second scenario is based on the low development scenario from the Rwanda Population 3.1.2 Second Scenario Projection Report (RPHC4, 2012). In this second scenario inter-district migrations are considered as a significant The second scenario is based on the low scenario from the factor of population redistribution. Rwandan Population Projection variables (NISR, 2014) and integrates a growth factor associated with internal The third scenario is based on the same trends from migrations between districts. As shown in the chart on scenario 2, but it is also developed on the rank-size law, the next page, during the period of 2007 to 2012 many where the urban population distribution of Rwanda districts experienced negative migration patterns. The would be similar to the one observed in a sample of numbers show an attraction to the City of Kigali and an Middle Income Countries. However, achieving this unbalanced population growth throughout the country. third scenario would require structural changes to Notably, it has to be underlined that some secondary urbanization patterns. Therefore, it can be considered as city districts are currently affected by a negative net a draft prospective target in the context of the national migration, specifically, the districts of Huye, Muhanga, roadmap that will be prepared in Component 3. and Musanze. Moreover, the growth observed in some districts is related to rural migration (better farmland) and The strategic growth scenarios provided in this chapter can’t be attributed to urbanization (notably, the district of will contribute to the prioritizing and spatializing Nyagatare, as explained previously). of investment in green infrastructure in Rwanda. Consultation with stakeholders on these scenarios will be On the other hand, the districts of the City of Kigali crucial to determine infrastructure needs and to assess (Nyarugenge, Gasabo, and Kicukiro) saw a positive net the existing gaps between cities. migration of 123,652 persons. This second scenario is considered to be closer to the current reality of Rwanda 3.1 Methodology than the first scenario – which is based only on mortality, fertility and international migration. Based on the current demographic trends, the observed migrations between districts, and the rank-size law, GGGI proposes three population projection scenarios. The census data used for the three scenarios is based on the low scenario from the Fourth Population and Housing Census of 2012. The assumptions of this scenario are the following: total fertility rate would decrease from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to 3.5 in 2020, and to 2.5 by 2032; life expectancy at birth would increase from 62.6 years in 2012 for men and 66.2 for women to 70.6 years for men and 74.5 years for women in 2032; and international migration would be at a rate of zero.
The three scenarios were developed in order to provide
44 Table 3.1: Net migration of population between districts
3.1.3 Third Scenario If one ranks the population size of cities in a given country and calculates the natural logarithm of the The third scenario is based on the same demographic rank and of the city population, the resulting graph will trends as scenario 2. However, this scenario was show a log-linear pattern. This pattern is the rank-size developed with the assumption that urban growth distribution; it is used to project the future population in Rwanda would follow a population distribution size and urban structure of Rwanda. The formula reflecting an ideally balanced urban system where the associated to this law is as follows: growth would be equally distributed between Kigali and the secondary cities. Pr = P1/ rq
In order to determine what a balanced urban system Where, Pr is the population of the city, P1 is the population would look like, this report provides a model based on of the largest city, r is the rank size of the city, and q is a the rank-size law. The aim of a rank-size distribution constant. is to compare the current and prospective urban hierarchy between the districts to an ideal national If q > 1, the primate city is rapidly growing, demonstrating urban hierarchy. This ideal urban hierarchy is based an imbalance in national growth in favor of one big city. on a comparison with neighboring states, a sample of middle income countries, and a sample of developed If q < 1, the small and medium-sized cities are growing, countries. demonstrating an imbalance in national growth in favor of secondary and tertiary cities. The rank-size law describes a remarkable regularity in many phenomena, including the distribution of city sizes. If q = 1, the urban system of the country is balanced, which shows an equilibrium in national growth between the main city and the secondary cities
45 The urban hierarchies of a sample of developed countries (Germany, South Korea and the UK) show that the q value tends towards one. As shown below, the German urban hierarchy is even below one and the urban structure of South Korea has an almost ideal q value.
Figure 3.1: Urban structure of developed countries
Moreover, the urban hierarchies of a sample of middle income countries show a q value between 1.13 and 1.49. The urban structure of South Africa – a benchmark in Africa – has a q value of 1.19 and the ratio between the size the second largest city’s population to that of the largest city is 0.44.
Figure 3.2: Urban structure of middle income countries
Currently, the urban hierarchy of Rwanda shows a q value of 1.5. This means that the ratio of the second largest city to the largest city is 0.17. An ideal q value would be 1.0, where the ratio between the populations of Rubavu and Kigali would be 0.5 (e.g. the largest city is twice the size of the second largest city). The following chart illustrates the current hierarchy of the 30 districts of Rwanda. The red line represents the ideal urban structure (where – for example – Rubavu would be half the size of the population of the City of Kigali).
46 Figure 3.3: Current urban structure of Rwanda and ideal urban structure
As a reference – and as illustrated on the following chart – it should be noted that the urban hierarchy of East African countries shows q values between 1.09 and 1.79.
Figure 3.4: Urban structure of East African countries
The following table describes the urban hierarchies of East African countries. It is to be noted that these countries show strong and uninterrupted urbanization since the 1990s. Notably, Nairobi, Mombasa, Dares Salaam and Kampala are among the world’s fastest growing cities, while Burundi shows a much slower urbanization process.
47 Table 3.2: Urbanization patterns of East African countries
Rwanda Kenya Tanzania Uganda Burundi • Rwanda urbanized the • Kenya’s urbanization • Tanzania is the • Uganda’s from • Burundi had the fastest between 1990 rate increased from most urbanized 11.1% to 15.2%. region’s lowest rate of and 2010, when the 16.7% to 23.6% country. In (1990 -2010) urbanization, at 6.3% share of its population (1990 - 2010) 2010 26.3% of in 1990 and 10.6% in living in urban areas Tanzanians lived • the world’s fastest 2010. increased from 5.4% to • The world’s fastest in urban areas growing cities 18.8% growing cities compared to between 2010 and • 6.2% of total between 2010 and 18.9% in 1990. 2025; Kampala, population inhabited • The world’s fastest 2025: Mombasa, Uganda (99.5%) in Bujumbura (2008) growing cities between Kenya (77.3%) and • 9.7% of total 2010 and 2025: Kigali, Nairobi, Kenya population • 5.04% of total • The ratio of Rwanda (79.9%) (77.3%) inhabited in Dar population Bujumbura’s es Salaam (2012), in habited in population to three • 10.8% of total • 8.1% of total which is double Kampala (2011) intermediate cities population inhabited population inhabited from 1978 (4.4%) is 6.89% (2008), in Kigali (2012), which in Nairobi (2009) • The ratio of which is the highest is 5 times higher than • The ratio of Kampala’s among the East Africa 2.4% in 1974 • The ratio of Nairobi’s Dar es Salaam’s population to Community. population to three population three intermediate • The ratio of Kigali’s intermediate cities is to three cities is 3.75% population to three 2.15% (2009) intermediate cities (2011) intermediate cities is is 2.85% (2012). 1.72% (2012)
48 The three following figures show the pace of urbanization in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania over the last thirty years. The figures illustrate the growth of secondary cities in comparison to the biggest city of each country.
Figure 3.5: Urbanization of Kenya
Figure 3.6: Urbanization of Uganda
Figure 3.7: Urbanization of Tanzania
49 Additionally, a comparison of the urban hierarchy of each group shows that the average q value of the urban structure of developed countries tends to equal 1.
At the same time, it should be noted that these countries also tend to have a higher urbanization rate.
This specific relationship is demonstrated in the following chart:
Figure 3.8: Relationship between urbanization rate and q value
For the purpose of our analysis, the q value associated with the third urban growth development scenario is one. This echoes an ideal urban hierarchy for Rwanda where ‘growth would be more equally distributed between Kigali, the secondary cities, and the third-tier cities’.
The urban growth projections based on the three scenarios are presented in the next section.
50 3.2 Key findings
3.2.1 Scenario 1
The following figure shows the total population projection by districts for Scenario 1. The projection of 2012 trends until 2032 indicates negative growth for some districts.
Figure 3.9: Scenario 1 – Total population per district 2012G2032
The baseline scenario indicates growth in the proportion of the urban population within the City of Kigali (already more urbanized than the rest of the country) and a noteworthy urbanization potential for Rubavu and the Eastern Province. Within this scenario, Rwanda would reach a level of urbanization of 32,2% by 2032.
Figure 3.10: Scenario 1 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012G2032
51 With regards to the space consumed by urbanization (urban area), scenario 1 shows an important sprawling of the urban population over the districts of the City of Kigali. The next figure shows the territory consumed by urbanization.
Figure 3.11: Scenario 1 – Urbanized Land Area 2012G2032
3.2.2 Scenario 2
Scenario 2 integrates the migration patterns between districts observed between 2007 and 2012. Therefore, it shows total district population growth linked to a migration multiplier. In this scenario, Rwanda reaches an urbanization level of 35% in 2052.
The following figure reports the prospective growth of the total population up to 2052.
Figure 3.12: Scenario 2 – Total population per district 2012G2052
52 The following figure shows the urban population as a proportion of the total population of each district.
Figure 3.13: Scenario 2 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012G2052
With scenario 2 the area occupied by urbanization within each district is as follows:
Figure 3.14: Scenario 2 - Urbanized Land Area 2012G2052
53 3.2.3 Scenario 3
Scenario 3 is based on the same assumptions as Scenario 2 (with migration trends). However, it also reflects an ideal urban growth rate where population distribution would be more equally allocated among Kigali, the secondary cities and the third-tier cities. In this scenario, Rwanda reaches an urbanization level of 35% in 2052The following figure reports projected urban population growth up to 2052 for each district.
Figure 3.15: Scenario 3 – Total population per district 2012G2052
The following figure shows the growth of the urban population as a percentage of the total population up to 2052.
Figure 3.16: Scenario 3 – Proportion of urban population per district 2012G2052
54 Finally, in terms of land consumed, the following figure indicates the growth rate of each district’s urban area up to 2052.
Figure 3.17: Scenario 3 – Urbanized Land Area 2012G2052
This preliminary analysis shows that Rwanda has The results offered by the three scenarios are important disparities in terms of urban growth. complementary to the data provided by the census at the The City of Kigali has positive migration patterns and national level. They provide a more detailed perspective some secondary cities appear to be left behind by of the situation at the district level. This analysis – based urbanization. Developed countries and middle Income on three different patterns – aims at identifying the countries tend to have higher urban population rates, possible demographic trajectory at the local level. Based but also, a more flattened population distribution on a limited and simplified database, the analysis shows pattern. the amplitude of development patterns throughout Rwanda and gives preliminary signals for investment In an ideal setting, growth would be distributed more priorities in order to pursue an ideally balanced urban equally throughout country and the secondary cities structure. would tend to be half the size of the biggest city. The third scenario for population projection illustrates such a development option.
The results of this analysis constitute a preliminary framework for identifying green growth and infrastructure investment opportunities. Associated with the DDI and the Green City Framework and Guidelines of Component 2, the findings on current and prospective urban hierarchies are a basis for further work to be undertaken with the national roadmap of Component 3.
55 56 Integrated Urban Planning and Development Management
This chapter starts with a critical review and evaluation • Priority 2: Increase the external connectivity of of the relevant sectorial national policy and strategy Rwanda’s economy and boosting exports, documents at the national and local level. The report includes an overall assessment of local urban development • Priority 3: Transform the private sector by plans in terms of: increasing investment in priority sectors,
• Their relevance to green urbanization and green • Priority 4: Transform the economic geography of growth; Rwanda by facilitating and managing urbanization for increased countrywide growth, and • Their degree of vertical and horizontal integration; • Priority 5: Pursue a ‘green economy’ approach to • The linkages between the spatial, environmental and economic transformation economic aspects; Two of these five priority areas are particularly • Their decentralized governance context and the relevant to the pursuit of green growth – Priority involvement of local stakeholders in their production; Area 4: Transform the economic geography of Rwanda, by facilitating and managing urbanization • Their evidence base, and for increased countrywide growth and Priority Area 5: Pursue a ‘green economy’ approach to economic • Their likely or actual implementation. transformation, with interventions focusing on green urbanization and the promotion of green innovation in This chapter explores the urbanization context in Rwanda, industrial and private sectors. The other three priority the related planning challenges that it faces and the areas will also have a major influence on the progress scope for an integrated planning response, drawing on of urbanization in the country.5 international good practice principles. The study builds on an analysis of relevant data from the National Population 4.1.2 The National Land Use Development and Housing Censuses of 2012 (and 2002).4 Master Plan
4.1 National Level The National Land Use Development Master Plan is comprehensive and is Rwanda’s foremost document 4.1.1 EDPRS2 in terms of land use and development. It is intended to provide policy and regulatory guidance for setting The Economic Development and Poverty Reduction out land-use proposals at various scales across Strategy 2013 – 2018 (EDPRS II) provides the overall Rwanda: national, districts, cities, neighborhoods economic development framework for Rwanda. As and villages (Imidugudu). The plan sets out an overall noted previously, the EDPRS II provides the strategic vision for how Rwanda is to achieve long-term sustainable framework for achieving the objectives of Vision 2020. development, with ‘economic growth and population Building upon the first version of the EDPRS, the growth forming a social and ecological balance.’ EDPRS2 develops the following five priority areas: 4.1.3 Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector • Priority 1: Increase the domestic interconnectivity Strategy (2013B2018) of the Rwandan economy through investments in hard and soft infrastructure, The Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan is a development-focused strategy that reflects the
4 The work of the United Nations Department of Economic Affairs Population Division is referred to for relevant historic data, trends and future population projections.The website of the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NIASR) has proved particularly helpful in this respect and provides a portal to other critical reports in particular the Demographic and Health Survey and the Third Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey EICV3 (2010/11). 5 EDPRS2 is clear on the need for equilibrium in growth between rural areas and urban areas. There is also considerable attention given to making more efficient use of rural (productive) land through the concentration of scattered rural settlements through the Imidugudu policy and its sister urban policy, Umujyi. Both of these policies are designed to balance population growth between urban and resettled rural villages, reducing scattered rural population and focusing concentration in urban growth poles and rural ‘villages’.
57 provisions of the EDPRS2 for sustained urban growth Green building, housing, the planning system and data and rural resettlement. It is a high- level document that are all cited as challenges to further achievements in provides additional, sector-specific detail to the economic the sector and emphasis is placed on a need for better policy contained in the EDPRS2. It is a joint publication coordination between sectors in order to realize the by the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Ministry of objectives of the GoR’s urbanization and rural settlement Local Government, which reflects the implications that policies: decentralization has on infrastructure planning. 1. To develop a basis for good urban and rural settlement It provides a very useful cross-sector discussion of policy management, crosscutting all development sectors and linkages between various GoR policy documents and following clear guidelines and procedures at all levels of the implications for urbanization and rural settlement governance. development. It also identifies all the relevant legislation and regulatory instruments that govern settlement 2. To create a hierarchical network of urban and development in both rural and urban areas. As shown in urbanizing centers, providing services and attracting the figure below, the sector strategy defines four levels economic activities countrywide, and to support the of settlement: Kigali, the secondary cities, other district development of secondary cities, districts, towns and centers and Imidugudu, (IDP village). In the development villages, as well as, the capital, Kigali. of the green city guidelines we will review how the current proposals for IDP villages, IDDP (policy and programs) and Umujyi policies relate to the concept of green growth for the secondary cities.
Figure 4.1: Rwanda Settlement Hierarchy
+ East African Hub Kigali + Capital of Rwanda + National Growth Pole
+ National Urban Backbone Secondary Cities + Regional & Local Growth Pole + Specialized Industrial & Commerical Base
+ Connection to Kigali & Secondary Cities District Centers + Local Service Provider for Rural Areas
IDP Villages + Imidugudu
58 4.2 Local Plans 4.2.4 Detailed Physical Plans
4.2.1 District Development Plan Detailed Physical Plans (or Area Action Plans or Detailed Layout Plans) detail the development of a specific area The District Development Plans-DDPs (District within the local urban development plan. Generally, in Economic Development Plans) provide the long- Rwanda an area of at least 500Ha is planned from each term development framework for each district to be district, including secondary cities. These plans are prosperous. They are largely descriptive documents commissioned by RHA on behalf of the district authorities, setting out the economic priorities and potentialities for but the districts collaborated heavily with RHA during the each District. The District Development Plan is seen to be elaboration process. For decentralization purposes, the the main vehicles for translating the Vision 2020, 7YGP districts will be the main entity responsible of these plans. into action and making progress towards the realization of the EDPRS II. These all follow a similar format (i.e. RHA has commissioned the development of detailed consistent use of terminology), and were used to reflect physical development plans for all urban areas, including the national economic strategy, the EDPRS2. the secondary cities, as urban planning tools to ensure orderly growth and development of cities/urban areas From the policy of decentralizing powers and in the future. The main objective of the detailed physical responsibilities to local authorities, the Government of development plans is: Rwanda has undertaken a series of measures toward administrative reform. In the current context of • Update and revise the existing Local Urban fighting against poverty, improved planning at all levels Development Plans in line with the requirements and is essential to increasing the level of coherence and visions set by the EDPRS2, the NLUDMP, the District synergy between the initiatives of poverty reduction Land Use Development Plans and the Urbanization and economic growth. It is in this framework that the Sector Strategic Plan; District Development Plans have been elaborated for all districts, specifically setting out the priorities and targets • Develop Detailed Layout Plans (City Implementation to be achieved by the districts over a period of five years Plans) of project details that ensure a rational (2013-2018). exploitation of the chosen sites for immediate district interventions. Among other things, the layout plan 4.2.2 District Land Use Development Plans should show land use, detailed physical development, future development plots, building layouts, roads District Land Use Development Plans are currently designs, and utility service infrastructure. This being developed by MINIRENA. After the adoption of kind of plan is elaborated for the purpose of direct the NLUDMP the biggest challenge is implementation, implementation. therefore these plans intend to provide guidance to the use of land and key strategic development projects in each district. It is expected that each district will have a draft district land use plan that will be part of the Integrated District Development Plan (IDDP), which has not yet been elaborated.
4.2.3 Local Urban Development Plans
Local Urban Development Plans (or Master Plans) aim to guide the development of the main urban center in each district, because this is where greatest pressures of urbanization occur within districts. The plans for each district were elaborated and approved. The implementation phases have already started.
59 The following table provides more details about the current status of elaborated plans for district development and urbanization.
Table 4.1: Current status of DDP, LUP, MP LUDP, and DPP
District Plan Type Huye Muhanga Musanze Nyagatare Rubavu Rusinzi Kigali
district economic 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 city development (master plan) development plan plan 2013 -2018 and three DDP 2013-2018 local land lse physical draft final district land use district land use district district draft final district of plan plan for the available development development land use land use available land use district waiting plan plan development development waiting development for district plan plan for district plan counceil council (Gasabo, approval approval Kicukiro and Nyarugenge)
Urban Areas
master plan conceptual Huye city etude du elaboration elaboration local urban Cyangugu Kigali & local urban master plan local urban plan local du plan du schema town master town master conceptual development development d’Amanagement d’amanagement directeur plan for plan 2005 master plan plan plan 2011- et d’urbanisme local (PAL) de la ville de the town - 2020, (adopted 2020, de la ville de de la ville Nyagatare, of Rubavu, MININFRA 2008) MININFRA Muhanga, de Musanze MININFRA MNINFRA 2005 Kigali city 2011 MININFRA (horizon 2025), 2009 2011 master plan 2011 MININFRA (2013) 2008 Kigali master plan is available at http://www. kcps.gov. rw/index. php/?id=21 detailed physical land detailed detailed master detailed master detailed detailed detailed Kigali sub physical plans use master plan plan (2012) for plan (2014) for master plan master plan master plan area plans (2012) for priority sites priority sites (2014) for (2012) for (2014) for - Kinyinya, priority sites (500 Ha) (1000 Ha) three sites A priority sites priority sites Kimihurura, (500 Ha) (278.4 Ha) , (500 Ha) (100 Ha) Rebero and B (186.3 HA) Masaka site and C (82.1 plans (2010) Ha). detailed urban design plans for central business district (Nyarugenge CBD), Kimirosko and Gahanga
60 4.2.5 Integrated planning among different local Local Government (MINALOC) coordinated the entire plans process of preparing the EDPRS II, Sector Strategies and the DDPs. The Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan emphasizes greater harmonization between plans • All DDPs developed their priorities around the District Plan Type Huye Muhanga Musanze Nyagatare Rubavu Rusinzi Kigali at different levels of spatial aggregation. Development following areas: agriculture, livestock, the private planning across sectors requires coordination at the sector, infrastructure development (transport, district economic 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 2013-2018 city district level with a special emphasis on the spatial energy, water and sanitation), human settlement and development (master plan) development plan plan 2013 implications of Local Development Plans. This will urbanization, the environment and natural resources, -2018 and especially require the harmonization of the District youth and gender empowerment, accountable three DDP Development Plans, District Land Use Plans and Local governance, health and education, macro- and micro- 2013-2018 Urban Developments Plans with the National Land Use finance and capacity building. local land lse physical draft final district land use district land use district district draft final district Master Plan. Planning principles of how to determine of plan plan for the available development development land use land use available land use scale, location and site requirements for various land uses • Some districts have specific development areas district waiting plan plan development development waiting development and facilities in urban and rural areas are essential. The which are likely different from other districts. These for district plan plan for district plan counceil council (Gasabo, guideline will facilitate the allocation of scarce land and exceptions include: approval approval Kicukiro and financial resources. Nyarugenge) Rubavu and Rusizi: the implementation of Kivu Belt On the physical planning side, despite there being Master Plan, elaborated and approved by the Cabinet in Urban Areas reasonably detailed guidance set out in the NLUDMP on 2014. master plan conceptual Huye city etude du elaboration elaboration local urban Cyangugu Kigali District Development Planning, none of the six secondary & local urban master plan local urban plan local du plan du schema town master town master conceptual cities have an adopted version of the District-level Muhanga: the processing of mining products, especially in development development d’Amanagement d’amanagement directeur plan for plan 2005 master plan Land Use Master Plan. There are, however, a number those areas not suitable for agriculture. plan plan 2011- et d’urbanisme local (PAL) de la ville de the town - 2020, (adopted of local urban development plans (Master) that have 2020, de la ville de de la ville Nyagatare, of Rubavu, MININFRA 2008) MININFRA Muhanga, de Musanze MININFRA MNINFRA 2005 Kigali city been produced for these six districts, which are strategic Nyagatare: positioning the Nyagatare District as a 2011 MININFRA (horizon 2025), 2009 2011 master plan and directional. Not all secondary cities currently have secondary city, focusing on livestock, diary and building 2011 MININFRA (2013) detailed master plans. However, unlike with the District materials. 2008 Kigali master Development Plans (Economic) the format, terminology, plan is scope and level of detail used in these plans is not available at consistent either within or across the districts. http://www. kcps.gov. rw/index. From the table below, regarding to priorities established php/?id=21 by the EDPRS II, District Development Plans and Urban detailed physical land detailed detailed master detailed master detailed detailed detailed Kigali sub Development Plans for secondary cities, major key physical plans use master plan plan (2012) for plan (2014) for master plan master plan master plan area plans findings are summarized below: (2012) for priority sites priority sites (2014) for (2012) for (2014) for - Kinyinya, priority sites (500 Ha) (1000 Ha) three sites A priority sites priority sites Kimihurura, • In general, established key priorities from the (500 Ha) (278.4 Ha) , (500 Ha) (100 Ha) Rebero and B (186.3 HA) Masaka site EDPRS II were the basis of planning for both District and C (82.1 plans (2010) Development Plans and Urban Development Plans Ha). detailed (See Annex 4 of the EDPRS II); urban design plans for • All District Development Plans (DDPs) have similar central priorities (Not very far different) due to similarities business district in terms of district physical characteristics and (Nyarugenge the provided Terms of Reference developed by CBD), MINECOFIN to elaborate the District Development Kimirosko Plans were almost the same for all districts. The and Gahanga Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MINECOFIN) in collaboration with the Ministry of
61 Table 4.2: Priorities compilation and comparison from existing planning documents
DISTRICT EDPRS II DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLAN (DDP) MASTER PLANS RUBAVU • Implement the Kivu • Develop and strengthen the planned actions of public • Urban Belt project (construct private deals through PPPs in agriculture, feeder road Development roads, modern ports, and Kivu Lake transport, environment and resource Plan for Rubavu hotels) to smooth management and financial sector development to elaborated in tourism, promote promote economic transformation and growth for 2011 and the cross-border trade poverty alleviation in Rubavu District. This explains detailed Physical (mainly to North Kivu) the role of partnership between JADF, PSD, the public Development Plan and interconnection sector and the community. was elaborated in between Rubavu, • Implement and increase the unit transformation 2012 for priority Karongi, Rutsiro, of agricultural and livestock products based on the sites for urban Nyamasheke, and promotion of grouped rural settlements in terms of extension (500 ha). Rusizi;Increase expansion of land to cultivate, access to electricity as agricultural and source of energy for enhancing the level of economic livestock production transformation of agricultural products, ICT, health, and (build carrot juice water and sanitation in rural areas to maintain the high transformation quality of life among the population and, in so doing, entities in increase productivity. the Nyakiliba • Develop and strengthen partnerships with neighboring and Rugerero districts and the Democratic Republic of the Congo sectors; modern in terms of income generation, services delivery, the slaughterhouse empowerment and sustainability of cooperation and construction, collaboration associated with cross-border trade. leather collection • Capacity building (technical support) and financial and preparation, support for economic transformation and rural exportation of development for marginalized groups such as women, processed meats (pigs people living with disabilities, PLWHIV/AIDS orphans and cows, poultry); and other vulnerable people. • Enhance urbanization • Promote democracy, good governance and justice for through the all. We look forward the new understanding of capacity development and building at institutional, organizational and individual implementation of levels. the city’s Master Plan • According to MINICOM, tailoring, tiles and brick, coffee (hard: roads, hotels, production and leather preparation should be joined to, artificial park, and and thereby, strengthen the top five priorities of Rubavu soft infrastructure) District. and develop water transport and tertiary services.
62 DISTRICT EDPRS II DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLAN (DDP) MASTER PLANS RUSIZI • Implement the • Agriculture: Emphasis to be put on increase of irrigated areas, • The Cyangugu Kivu Belt project land consolidation, improved seeds and promoting agro industry Town Master (construct roads, and mechanization. The overall objective is to respond to rural Plan was modern ports, development and economic transformation. elaborated hotels) to smooth • Livestock: Transforming the current status of traditional breeding by in 2005 and tourism, promote improving productivity. updated in cross-border • Private Sector: Rusizi District will concentrate on the development 2014. trade (mainly to of the private sector, the second pillar of sustainable development. • The detailed south Kivu) and Rusizi District will strive to provide a good business environment Physical interconnection and, therefore, to attract more investors and create more jobs. Development between Rusizi, • Energy: Rusizi District will increase access to electricity and seek Plan was Nyamasheke, to diversify other sources of energy, like the intensive use of biogas elaborated Karongi, Rutsiro and peat. The grouped habitat will, of course, be the main target for for priority and Rubavu. achieving this. sites for urban • Develop business • Transport: Road infrastructure will be developed and maintained extension areas infrastructure to promote interconnections between sectors. A focus will be put (1000 ha). while focusing on the exploitation of Kivu Lake by constructing shipyard and ports. mostly on feeder Also, existing national roads will be equipped with bus stops. roads, the airport • Water and sanitation: Emphasis will be put on addressing the issue extension, of providing quantitative and qualitative water to the population. shipping, Existing water infrastructures will be maintained at 200 km, and new shipyard and ones will be built at 73.5 km. The management of water resources industrial parks will be a priority, as well as, the extensive use of rain water. Sanitation (i.e. cement and infrastructures will be maintained and developed. rice). • Urbanization and habitat: Rusizi town will be developed by reinforcing the implementation of the District Mater Plan. • Youth: Youth Empowerment for Global Opportunities will be enhanced. • Environment and Natural Resources: a focus will be placed on the rehabilitation of degraded watershed, rehabilitation of wetlands, lakes and river bed. • Accountable governance: Best practices in terms of complying with public finance management and promoting decentralization, as well as, effective and efficient access to justice. • Macro and Finance Sector: Rusizi District will sensitize the population to the advantages of using the financial institutions. • Foundational areas: The district will reinforce achievements in different sectors like health, education, and others.
63 DISTRICT EDPRS II DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLAN (DDP) MASTER PLANS NYAGATARE • Establish agro, • Increase the productivity and value of the • Local Urban Development livestock and animal agriculture and livestock products through land Plan elaborated in 2009 for feed plants to consolidation, marshland development, irrigation, Nyagatare Town. develop the dairy mechanization applications, the Girinka Program, • The detailed Physical industry. controlling animal health and diseases, improving Development Plan • Develop urban slaughter houses, vegetables, fruits, flowers, elaborated for priority and rural coffee, tea, the construction of selling points, sites (A, B and C) for urban infrastructure, agro processing, improved seeds and fertilizers, extension zones (550 ha). including roads (20 constructing post-harvest facilities and animal km of tarmac and feeds plants, etc. 300km of feeder • Improve road networks for rural and urban roads), housing accessibility (construction of tarmac, stone paved and electrification and feeder roads, bridges, tax parks, roundabouts, to tap rural-urban roadside stations, etc.). forward and • Increase forest cover and environmental backward linkages. protection: planting new forests and trees • Position Nyagatare in-house, water body conservation, rain water District as a harvesting and erosion control. secondary city, • Sanitation and Water Supply: Construction focusing on of pipelines, water treatment plants and livestock, diary and boreholes, drainage system, landfill and dump site building materials. construction. • Increase household accessibility to electricity and reduce biomass energy consumption through the use of renewable sources of energy (i.e. solar, domestic biogas, improved cooker stoves, etc.) and the construction of new hydropower plants. • Improve urban and rural settlement, poverty eradication, health facilities and education programs through: youth development, TVTs, 12 YBE, equipment and facilities integrating IT, health centers, SMEs, involvement of the private sector and malnutrition rate eradication. • Attract private sector investment by creating a favorable investment climate and service delivery.
64 DISTRICT EDPRS II DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLAN (DDP) MASTER PLANS HUYE • Promote public • Land use consolidation, use of selected seeds and • The Local Urban private partnerships fertilizers, promotion of agriculture mechanization, Development Plan was in the layout and promotion of the private sector in agriculture and the elaborated in 2011 for development of the development of irrigation. Huye Town. district industrial park. • Improve the races of existing cows in the district. • Attract private Develop required infrastructures to support the race • The detailed Physical investors in the transformation, like veterinary clinics, pharmacies, Development Plan development milk collection centers, private sector mobilization to was elaborated for of the district’s invest in the sector and a reward system for the best the priority sites of pharmaceutical performers in the sector. Develop small animal farming Tumba, Cyarwa and industry. and experiment farming to ease adoption by the Gatobotobo sites in • Extend the electricity population. Reinforce capacity building in the district. 2013 (500 ha). infrastructure to Decentralize agriculture and veterinary facilities at the Rwaniro and the cell levels. Kigoma sectors and • Improve road networks for rural and urban supply electricity to accessibility (construction of tarmac, stone paved 25 new villages to and feeder roads, bridges, tax parks, roundabouts, attract education roadside stations, industrial park construction, etc.) investments. • Increase household accessibility to electricity and reduce biomass energy consumption through the use of renewable sources of energy (i.e. solar, domestic biogas, improved cooker stoves, etc.) and the construction of new hydropower plants. • Improve urban and rural settlement, poverty eradication, health facilities and education programs through: youth development, TVTs, 12 YBE, equipment and facilities integrating IT, health centers, SMEs, involvement of the private sector and malnutrition rate eradication. • Attract private sector investment by creating a favorable investment climate and service delivery. • Sanitation and Water Supply: Construction of pipelines, water treatment plants and boreholes, drainage system, landfill and dump site construction.
65 DISTRICT EDPRS II DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLAN (DDP) MASTER PLANS MUHANGA • Construction and • Promote private and financial sector • The Local Urban operationalization development by encouraging off-farm job Development Plan of Agakiriro Center creation: the construction and operationalization for Muhanga Town (handcrafts and of Agakiriro Centre (handcrafts and exploitation was elaborated in exploitation of of quarries) and developing the mining products 2011. mining and quarries). processing industry, especially in areas not • The detailed Physical • Processing of suitable for agriculture. Development Plan mining products, • Promote urbanization and rural settlement to was elaborated especially in areas facilitate access to socio-economic infrastructure for Priority sites in not suitable for and developing tourist products. 2013. agriculture. • Increase agricultural productivity to reduce employees in this sector and to supply manpower and raw materials to agro-processing industries. • Strengthen technical capacities to increase productivity (in agriculture, industry, handcrafts, mining and services such as ICT and tourism). Enhance youth economic empowerment and responsibility.
66 DISTRICT EDPRS II DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLAN (DDP) MASTER PLANS MUSANZE • Modernize agriculture with • Increase the productivity and value of the • Musanze Local Urban a special focus on promoting products from agriculture and livestock Development Plan agro-processing industries through land consolidation, marshland was elaborated in for the district’s main export development, 2008 products (Irish potatoes, • the Girinka Program, controlling animal • The detailed Physical wheat and pyrethrum). health and diseases, improving slaughter Development Plan • Facilitate private houses, vegetables, fruits, flowers, animal was elaborated for Investment in the district feeds plants, etc. priority areas of and promote and improve • Improve road network for rural and urban urban extension tourism by liaising with accessibility (construction of tarmac, stone zones (1000 ha). relevant central government paved and feeder roads, bridges, tax parks, agencies to avail the roundabouts, roadside stations, etc.) necessary infrastructure, • Implement the elaborated Master Plans like, roads and electricity. (Local Urban Development Plan and Partner with higher learning Detailed Physical development Plans). institutions to develop and • Increase forest cover and environmental avail a pool of competent protection by planting new forest and trees and skilled personnel in in-house, water body conservation, rain tourism and hospitality. water harvesting and erosion control. • Finalize Musanze District • Sanitation and Water Supply: Construction Land Use Master Plan and of pipelines, water treatment plants and the district detailed Physical boreholes, drainage system, landfill and Master Plan and enforce dump site construction. their implementation to • Increase household accessibility to position the district as a electricity and reduce biomass energy secondary city and attract consumption through the use of renewable the private sector to sources of energy (i.e.: solar, domestic develop low cost houses in biogas, improved cooker stoves, etc.) and the the district. construction of new hydropower plants. • Improve urban and rural settlement, poverty eradication, health facilities and education programs through: youth development, TVTs, 12 YBE, equipment and facilities integrating IT, health centers, SMEs, involvement of the private sector and malnutrition rate eradication. • Attract private sector investment by creating a favorable investment climate and service delivery.
67 4.2.6 Integrated planning for urban-rural In relation to the secondary cities, population data linkages corresponding to the “Provisional Urban Boundaries” from the GIS dataset provided by RNRA suggests that the The definition of the term “urban” is still not coherent in wider area definition has been used. That is, it assumes Rwanda’s legislation framework. Several definitions of that the urban boundary encompasses both the core urban areas are used, which are not completely compatible urban and semi-urban areas. with each other. The National Land Use Development Master Plan defines an urban area as “a built-up area The population figures for the cities (shown on the map) of more than 20 sq. km, and a population of more than are estimated from these two sources – the Provisional 10,000 permanent residents”. This suggests that any area Urban Boundaries and the RNRA GIS dataset. However, with a population density of more than 500 persons/sq. km neither the urban populations in, or derived from, the counts as urban. However, this very broad definition would RNRA data, or the small area population data itself, include a large part of the rural population of Rwanda that correspond to the 2012 census population figures and lives at densities higher than this. geo-spatial data available on the NISR website. This may be the result of use of provisional census data by the Provisional urban boundaries have been agreed upon RNRA and minor amendments to area borders following for 30 urban areas in all 30 districts, considering district the compilation of the RNRA GIS dataset. Further efforts headquarters as the core District Urban Areas, including between the NISR and RNRA towards data co-ordination the six selected secondary cities. These were prepared and updating would undoubtedly be beneficial. in 2012 by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), in association with the Rwanda Housing Authority Beyond the immediate commuter belt and wider, more (RHA) and Rwanda Natural Resource Authority (RNRA). densely populated, semi-urban area around a city, is a In this process, there was an agreement to define two wider catchment area of economic and environmental levels of urban development – “urban” and “semi-urban”. inter-dependency. Planners normally term this the ‘city In broad terms, urban corresponds to existing, more region’. densely built up developed areas, while semi-urban represents current and future expansion areas of the An urban area needs to draw on large zone of natural city (as delineated in the local urban development plan), resources (woodland, water bodies, mineral resources, encompassing scattered peri-urban and rural settlements etc.) to sustain it. The agricultural zone around the that are becoming more urban in character.6 city may supply it with a substantial part of its food requirements, while the city is the place where farmers
Table 4.3: Population Data for Secondary Cities in Rwanda
Census RNRA GIS and Provisional Urban Boundaries 2012 (Includes Semi Urban Areas) Density: Population Population Households Area Ha HH size pop/sq. km Huye 52,768 49,030 10,661 4,279 4.60 1,146 Muhanga 50,608 53,943 10,785 4,835 5.00 1,116 Musanze 102,082 55,911 11,536 2,426 4.85 2,305 Nyagatare 47,480 22,158 5,072 12,138 4.37 183 Rubavu 149,209 142,212 29,581 6,545 4.81 2,173 Rusizi 63,258 55,340 10,293 4,402 5.38 1,257 Average density all secondary cities 1,363
6 Rwanda is considerably advanced in the sophistication of its databases. RNRA’s GIS dataset is an exceptional resource, providing data on population, the physical extent and number of households for all administrative units from village level upwards for the whole country. The online NISR database provides 2012 census data on population at the sector level and other useful datasets covering the urban populations of the districts.
68 4.2: Rwanda’s urban/rural population density by district
Source: RNRA geo data and other sources
go to market their products for direct consumption, This is a key element of the integrated planning approach processing and export and to avail themselves of urban with the potential to maximize the economic potential of goods and services. The environmental management of Rwanda’s emerging urban system, in terms of: this wider region is key to maintaining the sustainability and future resilience of the central city. A growing city, in 1. Optimizing the synergies between the different turn, can ensure the economic development and growing types of urban center within the urban hierarchy, and prosperity and economic diversity of the surrounding between the urban and rural areas; and region. 2. Ensuring that urban growth occurs where it In terms of integrated planning at different scale of is most needed in terms of reducing rural urban spaces, these wider rural-urban linkages are key to population pressures and sharing the benefits of urban ensuring the future sustainable development and the development. place of urbanization within this.
69 4.3 Conclusions This last point is, in many ways the most important, for there is no point in having a plan that cannot be It is clear that consistency and alignment among different implemented. economic and spatial plans is a primordial in order to achieve and efficient integrated planning targeted by These are the basic preconditions for achieving properly the Sector Strategic Plan. As basic planning principles, an managed green urbanization and attractive, well-planned, integrated planning implies a number of things: economically robust, socially inclusive and environmentally friendly, green secondary cities. To achieve these 1. That any plans are well-conceived with an appropriate outcomes and to monitor progress on the way to achieving vision and objectives, with measurable outcomes, as well them, they have to be measurable, hence the need for as clearly presented and communicated and supported by appropriate indicators (the set of which may change over a robust evidence base. time as some become more important than others). Any new planning legislation required should be open enough 2. These are based on realistic growth or change scenarios to reinterpretation over time but solid and clear enough to for the period envisaged in the plan - not just simple give clear direction to the national guidance and local plans population projections, but modeled change that includes that emanate from it. key economic, social, demographic and environmental variables and make clear the assumptions involved and the risks associated with these and any interventions arising out of the plan.
3. The basic terms and concepts (including what plans are called and what they refer to, how terminology referred to in this report) are clearly defined and have a common understanding amongst all stakeholders.
4. The overall planning and regulatory framework is embedded in law so that all sub-national administrative entities requiring plans work with the same rules.
5. National-level guidance is developed, coordinated and agreed upon between the ministries and agencies to govern the terms of reference for and the execution of local plans.
6. Capacity for planning is considerably increasing but it is still necessary to ensure that adequate capacity exists:
• within the public and private sectors (community participatory) to produce the plans,
• within the public sector to manage, monitor and evaluate the plans, with reference to suitable indicators, and
• within the public sector, above all, to manage urban development, to ensure that all new development conforms to the plan, and that planning regulations are enforced.
70 71 Key Technologies Related to Sustainability in Cities
This chapter focuses on the green technologies identified as either existing or already under development in Rwanda. This chapter begins with the identification and classification of green technologies, and highlights where green technologies are already part of the current investment landscape in Rwanda.
The table below provides a snapshot of the green technologies identified, grouped by growth engine and then case studies of particular technologies. It is structured in terms of key growth engines: energy supply (renewable energy, low-carbon energy), energy efficiency (principally lighting and cooking technologies), resource use technologies related to waste management, water supply and sanitation, sustainable construction materials and products, green transport solutions and overall strategies that aid in the greening of the industrial development process.
72 Table 5.1: Typology of Green Technology Growth Engines
Growth Technologies Short description Engines Energy Geothermal Few studies have been carried out to identify the potentiality of geothermal Supply - Energy resources, which has been estimated about 700MW, of which 310MW is planned to renewable be developed by 2017. energy Hydropower Regional hydropower schemes to share with neighboring countries domestic medium/large hydropower micro/mini/small hydropower to generate about 21MW. Pico hydropower Solar energy Solar panels for water heating and residential electricity, developments include an 8.5 MW solar photovoltaic plant. Wind Energy The wind energy potential in Rwanda is yet to be determined, but initial surveys suggest that the most promising location is in the Eastern Province. Biogas (bio- Biogas digester technology has the potential for much wider adoption for households, digesters) rural areas and institutions such as hospitals and prisons (as well as potentially wider anaerobic digestion opportunities as part of waste management at some future date). Waste to Opportunity for a 10MW power plant in Kigali sourced from waste. power Energy supply Peat to power Peat Energy Company supplies 2000 tons every month to CEMERWA and RAS - low-carbon Rwanda Auto Service supplies peat for prisons to use for cooking. The country has energy plans to develop its peat resources to generate about 200MW by 2017. (decreasing Eco-fuels (e.g. A draft policy is being developed by the GoR in order to analyze the potential of reliance on jatropha to biofuel production in Rwanda. Currently, there is a project developed by Eco-fuels fossil fuels biodiesel) Global and Eco-Positive which intends to produced 34 million liters per year of eco- in the short fuel (which means around 90,000 liters per day). This may or may not be low carbon, term) and will depend on individual technologies. It’s impact on overall strategies should also be considered. Lake Kivu A 3.6 MW pilot project in Lake Kivu was develoed with the purpose of attracting methane funding for other methane gas projects. for power generation Energy Alternative NURU lights are one example of human powered rechargeable lights and pedaled efficiency - powered charger. This is not considered a major step-change technology for urban centers but lighting and lights, small could still be a significant technology as part of the overall mix. cooking devices New energy This includes the latest CFL and LED lighting technologies. The use of these is an efficient example of leapfrogging less energy-efficient technologies still in wide use in many lighting developed countries. technologies Improved Different technologies must be implemented in Rwanda in order to improve energy cooking stoves efficiency.
Briquette Consists of collecting organic waste, drying it, compressing it with water, and production producing briquettes to be used as cooking fuel.
73 Growth Technologies Short description Engines Resource Introduction The design of landfills for urban areas, such as UNDP support to build a permanent landfill use - waste of landfill in the Nyarugenge district of Kigali. We are aware from MININFRA that other solid management with methane waste management plans already exist, including plans to establish a landfill site in Rusizi. solutions collection Organized waste collection, which will also support development of recycling businesses. Recycling, A national policy draft to deal with electric appliance waste (EP waste) is under including the discussion at the Parliament, as this is considered an increasing area of concern. control of EP Nsengimana and Bizimana (2011) conclude that investment in e-waste facilities in waste. Rwanda should be considered, including collection, dismantling and pre-processing and recycling/transshipment on e-waste, which will require the development of collection points and recycling capacity, including for metals and plastics. This could enable Rwanda to leapfrog the heavy investment in energy-from-waste technologies to achieve best practice as exemplified by zero-waste communities with minimal residual waste levels in Europe (see http://www.zerowasteeurope.eu/). Control of There is a plan under the Ministry of Health to build an incinerator to treat hazardous hazardous medical waste. medical waste AD and Guidelines to promote composting are in place and projects include the conversion of composting the former landfill site in Nguba, Kigali. Increased use of composting, together with the facilities use of anaerobic digestion (AD) technology could be developed alongside decentralized WASH solutions in the secondary cities. Resource use Centralization Centralize waste water treatment, first in Kigali and then the technology can be - water and of wastewater extended to other cities. Decentralized approaches might provide a competing sanitation treatment technology solution, particularly for informal housing areas. plants Potable water Sûr’Eau is a locally-produced chlorine-based water treatment producing potable water target 100% supply by the construction of tanks and network extensions, as well as, local water access to clean saving, including rainwater harvesting on roofs in urban areas. and safe water by 2020 Water and Water and sanitation issues included within the District Development Plans sanitation demonstrate the need for developing sanitation master plans for the secondary cities. master plans Resource use STRAWTEC Manufacturing walls from straw. -sustainable Hydraform Manufacturing of a Soil Cement Compressed Earth Block (CEB) construction Transport BRT Bus Rapid Transit Green car An initiative to restrict the importation of old cars and to encourage importation of import green cars. initiative Moto taxis Kigali Biogas A plan to introduce biogas as a source of vehicle fuel. Bus Project International A plan to construct a railway between Kampala, Uganda and Kilgali. railway
74 Growth Technologies Short description Engines Additional technologies relating specifically to the process of green urbanization e.g.( transport, construction, buildings) will be considered during Component 2. This includes reference to the integrated green village (neighborhood) developments, area-wide initiatives such as the integrated Land and Water Management project in Muhanze and investment hubs for green growth such as the BRD facility. The link between technologies and urban density will be completed as a part of Component 2 (guidelines). Resource Industrial Special Economic Zone in Kilgali, Provincial Industrial Parks in Huye and Musanze, use greening parks, special RUsizi and Bugasera, District Industrial Parks in Muhanga and Nyagatare and of industrial economic Community Process Centers. development zones, process centers
Some of the six secondary cities have other existing green much direct employment. Green technology investments growth oriented initiatives, which could have an impact at are needed that cover wider sustainable production and a local and perhaps national level: renewable resource use.
• An example of this is Rubavu, as home of the KivuWatt Therefore, the development of such industries project. The project will make a significant lower- would help to create the employment required for a carbon contribution to the base load supply successful green growth strategy for secondary cities. of electricity on the national grid. The downside of the Entrepreneurship in this area will be complemented project is that as it is very technologically complex, it by both green standards for new development, and an will lead to only very limited job generation potential increasing trend in green upgrading and retrofitting for for local residents. existing cities and conurbations, including Kigali.
• Similarly, Rusizi has installed a large regional It could cover technology areas such as greening hydropower project that is helping to supply the transport, the integration of concepts such as Sustainable grid with more desperately needed (and renewably Urban Drainage (SUDS), cooking technologies (and the sourced) electricity and a landfill site under design/ sustainable use of wood fuel), water supply and sanitation construction with French Development Agency (AFD) (which could include enterprise development and linked funding. to AD/composting) and solid waste management. Existing initiatives in this area include biogas (wide range of In contrast, in Musanze, the potential for STRAWTEC initiatives) and rooftop rainwater harvesting projects, to source its wheat that will be used to build sustainable which are already being implemented in Kigali, and construction materials creates an opportunity that could secondary cities. be far more substantive in terms of job creation, and replicated to other similar types of enterprises creating In addition to these specific initiatives involving new locally-sourced sustainable building materials elsewhere. green technology enterprises to catalyze green growth In the future, processing plants for such materials could urban transformation, it is important that this project also serve as centers for train local workers in sustainable also captures opportunities to green existing activities in construction methods. ways that improve the efficiency and the economic and social value of these activities, including activities in the These existing activities in these six secondary city construction sector as already noted. locations could be viewed as a snapshot of the prominent ‘green economic prospects’ across Rwanda, both existing Another possibility to green existing production is to and proposed. However, it is important to consider increase the percentage of agriculture using agriculture opportunities beyond many of the identified renewable fertilizer, and potentially link this to the development energy possibilities, which will not in themselves create of urban agriculture in the secondary city districts. For
75 example, the current baseline is that no more than 13% acceleration of electricity demand expected alongside of farmers in the secondary city districts currently use urbanization. This is reflected in the far higher per organic fertilizer. For some districts this is as low as capita carbon footprints for the typical (business-as- 0.9. The underutilization of organic fertilizer is a large usual baseline of) higher-income countries, compared to opportunity given the size of the agricultural sector in that envisaged for green growth in Rwanda. all of the secondary cities. Adopting organic fertilizer as a farming technique would also create a market for the For this reason, an investigation into renewable energy product and enlarge a relatively small industry. Together options will form a key part of the pre-feasibility these will be important in providing new anchor industries technology study to be carried out in Component 2. around which the green growth urbanization strategies in each district can be built. However, in contrast to neighboring Uganda, where 74% of the electricity supply was used for commercial Finally, it will be important to identify where green and industrial purposes (Mann, Namukia and Ndibwami, technologies can address other sector activities. For 2009), most of the supply in Rwanda is still used for example, renewable energy supply and energy storage domestic consumption. Even so, Bensch and Peters (2014) could support centers with high ICT (notably in Huye) highlighted that the baseline for energy use in the home and sustainable construction technologies where there is in Rwanda is with consumption, predominantly composed significant ecotourism (notably in Musanze and Rubavu).7 of kerosene, charcoal and firewood in most households, and two-thirds of village households using batteries. This 5.1 Baseline and Technology Options is reflected in Rwanda’s relatively limited overall scale of electricity use, which accounts for around 4% of the 5.1.1 Energy Supply national energy supply being in the form of electricity.
Green urbanization will require investment in Therefore, increasing renewable energy generation renewable energy. As considered from an economic capacity will therefore be important, not just to support standpoint in Chapter 2, it is anticipated that the increased domestic consumption anticipated, but investment in green technologies (such as hydro-power, also to support the development of non-farm industry. wind, solar and biogas), grid connection for major Also, it will be important for the energy supply options generation in secondary cities, and the mechanisms to to consider these other energy uses, together with enable these will need to be scaled to the level where sustainable transport options going forward. they can provide the energy supply necessary to match urban need. Grid connection is expected to include Finally, there is significant research that sets out residential and business areas in the center of each city, comparative carbon and ecological footprints for urban extending into peri-urban areas over time. This will be areas which conclude that it is the spatial planning of one of the green technology thresholds considered in urban areas, including density, which has perhaps the Component 2 of this project. most significant impact on the carbon footprint. For this reason, we propose an approach that maps the As set out in Chapter 2 above, the case for a renewable technology options as set out in 6.4.2 below. energy driven development pathway is clear, with an
7 The appendix of this report provides a brief summary of selected case studies. These include: - Nuru lights as an innovative low cost solution for off-grid rural areas has been implemented in different districts in Rwanda and has the potential to be replicated. This is an example of a technology that can be applied to low density rural to peri-urban areas, which will be different from technologies (e.g. LED/CFL) adopted in grid- connected urban centers. - Formal and informal systems of rainwater harvesting are already widely implemented in Rwanda. These include application to new buildings in Kigali and retrofitting of ‘home made’ systems in urban and rural areas. It would appear that there is widespread understanding and acceptance of this technology. The key opportunity would appear to be in the domestic design and manufacture of systems, or at least elements of them, offering green industrial investment opportunities. - Strawtec is a sustainable building material is already in use in Rwanda. It has been used widely elsewhere, which has provided a number of test beds and examples of its use. It is clear that further use could easily be made of this technology, if it’s acceptance amongst users and financiers can be expanded. It is considered necessary for some ‘model’ applications to be produced within Rwanda, possibly as part of a ‘model’ town. - Solar water heaters, which have already been introduced in Kigali and other secondary cities. - Biogas generation – there are a number of initiatives already being pursued in Rwanda relating to ways in which biogas can be used to produce electricity, heat and fuels. These range from home scale systems for improved biogas cooking stoves, to institutional scale bio-digesters used to generate fuel gas. These technologies are increasingly accepted for implementation in prisons, schools and hospitals, but could also be used in residential areas.
76 As noted in the Green Growth Strategy, Rwanda is in the 5.1.2 Energy Efficiency fortunate position of having a renewable low-carbon energy resource mix which is the foundation for a low- As electricity remains a small part of the wider overall carbon economy. Although diesel is currently used for energy supply, improvements in energy efficiency 39% of electricity production, it can be phased out and are needed also in terms of transport fuel, wood fuel replaced with geothermal, hydro and solar, which are and charcoal use. Bensch and Peters (2011) consider all clean energy sources. Lake Kivu, shared by the DRC the impact of electrification on lighting usage, which and Rwanda, hosts methane gas (mixed with CO2), highlights how the improved cooking and lighting which, if left unexploited, poses a safety risk, and, if appliances outlined above will be important green released into the atmosphere, is a potent greenhouse gas. technologies for limiting the scale of energy required for Furthermore, a significant hydro potential is available for urbanization. In addition, cooking stove improvements development, as noted in Chapter 2 above. Therefore, a can improve health, by reducing indoor air pollution, and mix of these different technology options could provide a energy efficient lighting can help extend the (working) resilient mix for future energy supply in Rwanda. day, and, therefore, the quality of life for households.
Although using the methane to generate electricity will 5.1.3 Water Sector result in carbon emissions, the benefits of domestic energy security, safety and a possible smaller global Green technology options for water supply are warming potential make this an attractive energy source crucial, not just in reflecting constraints on water in the shorter. Rwanda also hosts vast black peat deposits, supply embodied and operational carbon emissions which are largely unexploited and could contribute to of different options, but the importance of public domestic energy security in the short term, but, with high health considerations with respect to climate change carbon emissions, these are not a good option and could adaptation challenges. Drechsel, Cofie and Amoah reduce the investment needed in renewable resources. (2014) highlighted the significant urban water For example, Fumihiko (2013) reviewed how South footprint for other rapidly urbanizing African cities. African investment in mining to extract energy supplies They noted an average of water footprint of 892 – has led to lower energy prices and has limited the scale of 1280 m3/capita/year across four cities in West Africa investment in renewable energy. (Ouagadougou, Accra, Kumasi, Tamale).
This domestic energy mix will enable all consumers of 5.1.4 Resource Use energy – industry, services and the public – to lower their GHG emissions. More importantly, it will enable The most visual impact of the sustainability of resource Rwanda to provide enough electricity for its growing use is, perhaps, waste management. Research in South economy. In addition, Rwanda has access to the East Africa (Trois and Jagath, 2011) concluded that the Africa Power Pool, which in the future may provide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per person from urban regional energy security for ten African countries. waste management activities are greater in Sub-Saharan Forests, parks and agro-forestry can play a role in low- African countries than in other developing countries, carbon development by acting as carbon sinks. Through due mainly to the fact that the average organic content preserving existing forests and parks, agro-forestry and of urban municipal solid waste in Africa is around 56% urban tree planting, Rwanda’s growing emissions can be and its degradation is a major contributor to greenhouse reduced. Forests provide ecosystem services, vital for gas emissions. This impact will increase as the population socio-economic development, and support ecotourism, becomes more urbanized. This concludes that the which will continue to contribute to economic growth. most sustainable and economic management options Wood will continue to be the largest source of energy will include: waste collection points to remove dry in Rwanda in the next few years, but this needs to be recyclables; the composting of the remaining biogenic- managed in order to prevent deforestation. Agro- carbon waste to produce compost as a substitute forestry can provide suitable wood fuel while preserving fertilizer and the removal and disposal of the remaining natural forests and parks. fossil-carbon waste to sanitary landfills. This approach is calculated to produce the greatest GHG reductions in urban areas and requires incentives for investment,
77 such as those introduced in the South Africa (as a feed- repurposing of products, as well as, the recycling of in-tariff) and the UK (to guarantee a market for biogas constituent materials tends to be able to sustainably electricity), as well as, legislation that governs and generate far more jobs than either energy-from-waste or regulates the recycling industry. The opportunity in landfill solutions. This job creation potential is evidenced Rwanda is to, therefore, leapfrog these old technologies in the US, where the ratio of hourly wage to unit resource and focus instead on the most sustainable alternatives, and energy price is much higher. Even based on US labor both in terms of waste management and new resource rates, the evidence for this as a center for industrial utilization. On a per ton basis, the reuse and other development in the cities is set out the figure below.
Table 5.2: Employment Opportunities in Reuse and Remanufacturing vs. Recycling vs. Disposals.8
Type of Operation Operations Jobs per 10,000 tons per year Computer Reuse Repair, refurbishment 296 Textile Reclamation Reuse, repair, recycling 85 Misc. Durables Reuse Repair, refurbishment 62 Wooden Pallet Repair Repair 28 Recycling-based Manufacturers Recycling 25 Paper Mills Recycling 18 Glass Product Manufacturers Recycling 26 Plastic Product Manufacturers Recycling 93 Conventional Materials Recovery Facilities Recycling 10 Composting Recycling 4 Landfill and Incineration Recovery, landfill 1
Source: Institute for Self-Reliance, Washington DC, USA, 1997
However, resource consumption as an opportunity for maximize employment generation and, therefore, the green technology development extends beyond waste social inclusion elements of the urban development as an end-of-life solution to how these resources can process. be reused and recycled to the development of new capacities for the manufacturing of products from local 5.1.5 Transport and sustainable materials. The latter is anticipated to be as significant as the waste solutions, due to the scale of The spatial planning in each of the secondary cities, resource use that will be required for construction. (Note, and the ways in which their economies develop, will have in terms of tonnage, it is likely to be largest resource pull. a major impact on the scale and nature of For example, Linstead, Gervais and Ekins (2003) report transport infrastructure needs, which could have that, of the 291 million tons of resources used in the major implications for both resource use and carbon UK in 1998, around 95% were used by the construction emissions. The technology options for transport industry). Therefore, alternative construction products will relate to the urban development strategies will not only help to ensure that increased urban considered (which will be developed in component 2), consumption will be important in developing a higher and will include infrastructure provision and the nature value circular economy9 in Rwanda, but also, to help of the transportation solutions and energy supply.
8 Institute for Local Self-Reliance, Washington, DC, 1997. Note: Figures are based on interviews with select facilities around the country. 9 The distinction between linear and circular economics was used by Karl-Henrik Robèrt to found The Natural Step. ‘Most environmental problems are based on the same systemic error - linear processing of material. Until resources are processed in cycles - either by society of by biogeochemical processes - the global economy and public health will continue to deteriorate. We will never be in a better position to make the necessary changes; every minute we delay increases the final cost.’
78 As noted in the Green Growth Strategy, the biggest 5.1.7 Opportunities challenge for low-carbon development is transport. Petroleum products will still have to be imported to This report proposes a strategy where technologies supply the needs of the transport sector. Although some are developed in each of the growth engine groups, work is being done on growing Jatropha for biofuels near as set out above. This approach aims to develop a Akagera National Park in eastern Rwanda, the limited replicable network of sustainable enterprises that land, growing population and high water requirements can both provide focal points for job creation, and for biofuels makes growing biofuel crops a poor option embed sustainability in the development of each city. for Rwanda. More innovative and cost-effective solutions Therefore, our approach is not to target the development could include producing ethanol from municipal solid of different technologies in different locations (although waste and from methane in Lake Kivu. Oil exploration it is anticipated that energy supply and resource use in Lake Kivu may solve domestic energy security, but it businesses will be focused upon areas where energy will not reduce carbon emissions, and it has the added sources and resources provide the best opportunities), complications of the multiple shared energy sources that but clusters in industrial areas in each city. the lake provides. Until a cleaner, cheaper alternative is available, the focus for transport and energy must be on These green enterprise zones will support both efficiency and demand reduction. This is a win-win option traditional businesses and emerging eco-social for domestic and industrial consumers of transport enterprises. This combination will reduce the impact and energy who would save on costs, while freeing up and the cost of climate change, resulting in a rethink of capacity to extend access to electricity across the country local economies, local jobs and resource use. This plan and reducing GHG emissions. sets out a replicable model for green enterprise zones: the vision is of a high performance business park, built However, the impact of transport will include not just to high environmental standards, enabling a range the in use impacts, but also the initial development and of social enterprises and start-up businesses to co- subsequent maintenance of the transport infrastructure. locate and share expertise and resources, linking with For example, the use of alternative materials and university and educational establishments and existing construction approaches to minimize impact, such as for entrepreneurs to provide an incubator and knowledge major construction works like the establishment of Bus hub for new green technology development. This will Rapid Transit (proposed in Kigali), is analyzed in South also maximize the creation of new local employment Africa by Stoffberg and Baker, who assess the barriers and training. The green technologies would include and opportunities to develop selected technologies, and those from all the principle growth engines: renewable the potential for these to be integrated into a sustainable energy, energy efficiency, resource use, water and urban planning approach. transport. This will help provide the link between sustainable production and sustainable consumption 5.1.6 Barriers through also providing legitimate end-of-life solutions to the business community, including take-back options, The existing or under developed green technologies repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing. in Rwanda have been reviewed. Therefore, it is considered that the barriers associated with these This concept will help to act as a development anchor technologies are limited. In many cases the limits are for the secondary cities. This is important as part of an related either to the mindset of people who refuse to alternative (green) green growth strategy where higher- change or the market (or energy/resource source), and tech industrial development is located around the capital, there is no reason to consider that these do not form with other regions having limited economies, lower-tech part of the strategy for investment, as part of a green investment and often hinterlands that are comparatively growth strategy for secondary cities. The exception deprived of investment. This approach will help underpin is peat, the large-scale exploitation of which is not a viable vision for green urbanization, which maximizes considered consistent “green”. This approach, will environmental, social and economic wellbeing across allow flexibility to consider different technologies at Rwanda. The rationale for this concept of green enterprise different scales within the development strategy. zones (GEZ’s) is set out in Appendix 11.
79 5.1.8 Potential for these to be integrated into a which will accompany the growth in green technology Sustainable Urban Planning Approach jobs, and migration to these secondary city locations.
The Component 2 report will map out the typology of 5.2 Conclusions these selected technologies and carry out a pre-feasibility (viability) assessment to determine demand density The baseline for this project is that the impact of and what scale would be required as a threshold for the urbanization in Rwanda, as elsewhere in Africa, will be development of a given technology. Each technology will significant. In many cases the green technology options be mapped out onto a matrix to set out the threshold will depend upon the country’s success in developing scale and population density (indexed against the urban, strong urban planning capabilities and strategies in peri-urban, peri-rural and rural land use classifications the six secondary cities. It is best not to consider these adopted in Rwanda) to create a series of options for separately, but rather, as options which can be combined green technologies in different locations, and at different together to create competitive markets in the renewable stages of a city’s development. energy and energy efficiency, resource use, transport and water sectors that will underpin green consumerism The peri-rural and peri-urban categories will provide across Rwanda. Some technologies, such as those both an indication of the technologies to be a) associated associated with sustainable construction and renewable with the early stage of the city development, b) to be energy supply, will precede green urbanization, while found around the edge of secondary cities and c) to be others will be reflected in the development process – consistent with a green village or town development. either within green villages and towns alone or only for larger conurbations including the secondary cities. The urban category is expended to reflect the higher density urban core in Kigali, the secondary cities and in The Component 2 report will map out which green larger tertiary city developments. The importance of technology options will become significant as different density, and the interface between green infrastructure demand and density thresholds for urban development provision and urban planning to underpin green growth, are reached in each of the secondary cities, and also, how particularly for rapidly urbanizing economies such as the scale at which they become viable will be reduced Rwanda, is set out clearly by Freire (2013). through investment support and co-location to create centers for employment generation in the form of Green In addition to this overall typology of technologies Enterprise Zones. for green urbanization, it is anticipated that green technologies will be clustered and developed in central locations of these secondary cities, which will create key employment draws for the cities. In addition to sustainable resource and energy supply for traditional industry sectors (e.g. furniture manufacture, garment production, office-based employment and some heavier-industrial production), it is expected that green technology industrial capacity building will be included as set out in 6.4.1 above.
Finally, Lankao (2007) highlights that the composition of carbon footprint in urban areas varies markedly between informal settlements and higher income areas, which again could be reflected in the energy demand, and therefore the technology options considered. Likewise, Taylor and Camaren (2014) set out the importance of green technologies in providing both climate mitigation and the adaptation underpinning the growth of informal settlements,
80 81 82 Conclusion
The assessment of the development level of the provided by the census at the national level. They provide secondary city districts offered an opportunity to a more detailed perspective of the situation at evaluate their potential to become green cities with the district level. Associated with the DDI, this analysis green economic opportunities. Moreover, the assessment provides guidelines for the national roadmap. of current opportunities demonstrated that most of the secondary city districts have an economic based This report also identified the planning framework at the heavily concentrated on agriculture. Low skilled resource national and local levels. It is important to remember that base manufactures comprise the bulk of off-farm in order to achieve properly managed, green urbanization industrial opportunities in most secondary city districts. and attractive, well-planned, economically robust, As a number of the secondary cities are close to an socially-inclusive, environmentally friendly and green international border, trade has created opportunities for secondary cities, there are basic preconditions in terms of a significant portion of the workforce at border locations. urban planning. Therefore, any new planning document In the current situation, the weaknesses of the industrial – such as the national roadmap of Component 3 – should activity or service sector means that a significant portion be open enough to reinterpretation over time but solid of the workforce migrates to Kigali for employment. and clear enough to give clear direction to the national guidance and local plans that emanate from it. Good In order to measure and compare the development level integrated planning implies a number of things: of secondary city districts GGGI has developed a District Development Index, which aims to explore the challenges • Plans are well conceived with an appropriate vision and opportunities offered by each territory. The DDI and objectives, as well as clearly presented and offers a ranking of districts based on 16 indicators related communicated and supported by a robust evidence to the dimensions of human resources, living conditions base. and the local economy. The index suggests strengths and weaknesses for each district and highlights areas • Plans are based on realistic growth or change where an infrastructure gap needs to be addressed. The scenarios for the envisaged timeline. DDI was a first attempt to create a development index in Rwanda. • The basic terms and concepts are clearly defined and have a common understanding among all stakeholders. Associated with the Green City Framework and Guidelines of Component 2, these preliminary findings • The overall planning and regulatory framework is from the DDI constitute a basis for further work to be embedded in law. undertaken with the national roadmap of Component 3. Also, based on the findings of this report, it has been • National-level guidance is agreed between the observed that the urban structure of Rwanda appears to ministries and agencies to govern the terms of be unbalanced compared to a sample of middle-income reference for and execution of local plans. countries or developed countries. The rate of growth of Kigali greatly exceeds the rate of growth of secondary These prerequisites of good planning will have to be city districts or the rest of the country. Therefore, there part of the preparation of the national roadmap. At the is currently an over-concentration of population and next step, the Component 2 Report provides lessons economic opportunities in Kigali and the distribution of from African and international practices interms of wealth and services suffers from this situation. green urbanization of the national roadmap. Moreover, it offers a framework and guidelines for the preparation In order to measure the possibility of altering Rwanda’s of the national roadmap of Component 3. Finally, it gives population growth distribution patterns, three a preliminary M E Framework for achieving the desired development scenarios were prepared. The third objectives in terms of green urbanization. scenario is based on the hypothesis that population growth would be more equally distributed between Kigali and the secondary cities. The results offered by the three scenarios are complementary to the data
83 References
7.1 National Documents Ministry of Trade and Industry Government of Rwanda Energy Water and Sanitation Authority (2011). National Industrial Policy. Available at: (2013). National Program for Development of Solar Water Heaters http://www.minicom.gov.rw/IMG/pdf/Industrial_PolicyP2.pdf Market in Rwanda W SolaRwanda Program. Online at: http://www. ewsa.rw/index.php/En/products-services/energy/project-programs- National Agricultural Export Development Board energy/solar-water-heaters (2012). Statistics Report 2012 of coffee, Tea and Horticulture. Online at: http://www.naeb.gov.rw/uploads/media/REPORT_STATISTICS Government of Rwanda REMA 2012_NAEB 2_.pdf and http://www.ventures-africa.com/2014/01/ (2006). General Guidelines and Procedure for Environmental Impact rwanda-tea-exports-surge-86-9/ Assessment. Available at: http://rema.gov.rw/index.php?option=com_ docman task=cat_view gid=67 Itemid=77 lang=en Government of National Bank of Rwanda Statistics Rwanda, 2011). Green Growth and Climate Resilience: National (2014) Trend of Rwandan Exports for the Last 5 Years: http://www.rdb. Strategy for Climate Change and Low Carbon. Kigali rw/fileadmin/user_upload/Documents/TM/2013P UPDATED_TREND_ OF_INTERNATIONAL_TRADE_DATAP_FOR_THE_LAST_5_YEARS.pdf Government of Rwanda Environmental Policy Available at: http://minirena.gov.rw/fileadmin/Environment_Subsector/ National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) P Ministry of Finance Laws Policies_and_Programmes/Policies/ POLITIQUE_ENVIRONP and Economics Planning (MINECOFIN) Anglais.pdf (2013), Enquête Intégrale sur les condition de vie des ménages 2010W2011. Kigali. Government of Rwanda and One United Nations Rwanda (2014), Support for the Development and Implementation of a National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda Green Economy Approach to Rwanda’s Economic Transformation (2011). Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey 3 (EICV3). (2014W2018) Flagship Programme. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/survey-period/integrated- household-living-conditions-survey-3-eicv-3 Ministry of Health of Rwanda National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, ICF Macro Republic of Rwanda P Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee (2009). Rwanda Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2007 – 2008. Affairs (2009). National Disaster Management Policy. Available at Online at:http://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/fr215/fr215.pdf http://midimar.gov.rw/uploads/tx_download/Disaster_Management_ Policy_01.pdf Ministry of Infrastructure Republic of Rwanda (2011). Feasibility Study of Rainwater Collection Systems on Public Republic of Rwanda – Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Agency Buildings in Kigali city and Other Towns in Rwanda. Online at: http:// (2009). Guidelines on the Management of Waste Disposal Site www.rha.gov.rw/fileadmin/user_upload/Documents/publications/ (Landfill). Available at http://rura.gov.rw/fileadmin/board_decision/18_ Rainwater_collection_on_pu blic_buildingsPFinal_Report_2.pdf GUIDELINES_Landfill_03.pdf
Ministry of Infrastructure Republic of Rwanda Republic of Rwanda MINECOFIN (2012). Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan (2013). Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy 2012/13 – 17/18. EDPRS2 2013 – 2018 Shaping our Development. Available at: http:// www.minecofin.gov.rw/fileadmin/General/EDPRS_2/EDPRS_2_FINAL1. Ministry of Lands, Environmental, Forests, Water and Natural pdf Resources – Republic of Rwanda (2004). Sectorial Policy on Water and Sanitation. Online at: http://www. Republic of Rwanda MININFRA rema.gov.rw/rema_doc/Policies/Water_and_Sanitation_Policy.pdf (2011). National Energy Policy and Strategy. Available at: https:// energypedia.info/images/7/77/ENERGY_POLICY_and_STRATEGY.pdf Ministry of Local government Republic of Rwanda (2012). Revised National Decentralization Policy. http://www. Republic of Rwanda Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning minaloc.gov.rw/fileadmin/documents/Minaloc_Documents/Revised_ Available at: http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=2 Decentralisation_Poli cy_for_Cabinet_30_01_2013.pdf
84 Republic of Rwanda Office of the Prime Minister Minister of Disaster Management and Refugees Affair Available at: http://www.primature.gov.rw/home.html 2012. The Disaster Management Policy, REvison of 2009 Disaster Management Policy. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009. Economics Republic of Rwanda of Climate Change. Available from: http://www.rema.gov.rw/ccr/Final (2000). Rwanda Vision 2020. Available at: http://www.minecofin.gov. 20report.pdf rw/fileadmin/General/Vision_2020/Vision-2020.pdf 7.2 Local District and City Level Documents Republic of Rwanda (2012). Achieving Sustainable Urban Development: Support to the Government of Rwanda – Legal and Institutional Mapping. City of Kigali Republic of Rwanda and OZ Architecture (2008). Kigali Conceptual Master Plan. Republic of Rwanda MINALOC (2013), National Strategy for Community Development and Local City of Kigali Republic of Rwanda and OZ Architecture Economic Development 2013W2018. Available at: http://www. (2010). Kigali Sub Area Plans Schematic Design Sustainable Urbanism. minaloc.gov.rw/fileadmin/documents/Minaloc_Documents/ community_development_and_local_economic_development_strategy_ Huye District - Republic of Rwanda January_2013.pdf (2011). Local Urban Development Plan 2011 – 2020.
Rwanda Biofuels Huye District - Republic of Rwanda (2010). Rwanda Biofuels Powering Rwanda Development. (2013). District Development Plan 2013 – 2018. http://www.rwandabiofuels.com/index.php Huye District - Republic of Rwanda Rwanda Environmental Agency (2013). District Development Potentialities Assessment for the (2009). Rwanda State of Environment and Outlook. Available at:http:// Integrated and Self-Centered Local Economic Development. www.rema.gov.rw/soe/index.php. Kigali city Rwanda Environmental Management Agency Republic of Rwanda (2013). Kigali city Transportation Master Plan Report Detailed District (2010). Practical Tools on Solid Waste Management of Imidugudu, small Physical Plans for Kicukiro and Gasabo. Towns and Cities: Landfill and Composting Facilities. Kigali City Rwanda Environmental Management Authority Republic of Rwanda (2013). Kigali Master Plan. Online at: http://www.masterplan2013. (2011). Mainstreaming Resource Efficient and Cleaner Production kigalicity.gov.rw/ in Rwanda’s Policies and Strategies Final Draft. Available at: http:// rema.gov.rw/rema_doc/RGG CRS 202011/Final_Draft_RECP_ Muhanga District - Republic of Rwanda Mainstreaming_Strategy_Rwand a.pdf (2013). District Development Plan 2013 – 2018.
Rwanda Natural Resources Authority Republic of Rwanda and Muhanga District - Republic of Rwanda Swedesurvey (2013). District Development Potentialities Assessment for the (2010). National Land Use and Development Integrated and Self-Centered Local Economic Development. Master Plan. Musanze District - Republic of Rwanda National Strategy for Community Development and Local Economic (2011). Local Urban Development Plan 2011 – 2020. Development 2013P2018, MINALOC 2013 Online at: http:// www.minaloc.gov.rw/fileadmin/documents/Minaloc_Documents/ Musanze District - Republic of Rwanda community_development_and local_economic_development_strategy_ (2013). District Development Plan 2013 – 2018. January_2013.pdf Musanze District - Republic of Rwanda (2013). District Development Potentialities Assessment for the Integrated and Self-Centered Local Economic Development.
85 Nyagatare District - Republic of Rwanda Bensch, G and Peters, J. (2011). Local Urban Development Plan 2011 – 2020. (2011) Research Report. Socio-economic impacts of rural electrification in Rwanda: An ex-ante assessment of GTZ Nyagatare District - Republic of Rwanda activities. RWI Materialien, No. 60. http://www.econstor.eu/ (2013). District Development Plan 2013 – 2018. bitstream/10419/61112/1/668504838.pdf
Rubavu District - Republic of Rwanda BioRegional and LSD Commission (2011). Local Urban Development Plan 2011 – 2020. (2009). Capital consumption: the transition to sustainable consumption and production in London. -www.bioregional.co.uk/files/publications/ Rubavu District - Republic of Rwanda capital-consumption.pdf (2013). District Development Plan 2013 – 2018. Bloom, David E., David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla Rubavu District - Republic of Rwanda 2003, The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic (2013). District Development Potentialities Assessment for the Consequences of Population Change, Population Matters Monograph Integrated and Self-Centered Local Economic Development. MRP1274, RAND, Santa Monica, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/ rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1274.pdf) Rusizi District - Republic of Rwanda (2011). Local Urban Development Plan 2011 – 2020. Boudreaux, K. (2012). A Better Brew for Success Economic Liberalization in Rusizi District - Republic of Rwanda Rwanda’s Coffee Sector. Online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ (2013). District Development Plan 2013 – 2018. AFRICAEXT/Resources/258643P 1271798012256/rwanda_Coffee.pdf
Rusizi District - Republic of Rwanda Clay D C and Lewis L A (2013). District Development Potentialities Assessment for the (1990) Land Use, Soil Loss and Sustainable Agriculture in Rwanda. Integrated and Self-Centered Local Economic Development. Human Ecology. Volume 18, Number 2.
7.3 General Reference Death, Carl (2014) The Green Economy in South Africa: Global Discourses and Local Politics. Politikon 41.1 (2014): 1P22. http://www.tandfonline.com/ AfDB, OECD, UN and World Bank doi/abs/10.1080/02589346.2014.885668. (2013), A Toolkit of Policy Options to Support Inclusive Green Growth, G20 Development Working Group, Available at: http://www.undp. org/content/dam/undp/library/Environment 20and 20Energy/IGGP Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) ToolkitAfDBPOECDPUNPWBPrevised_July_2013.pdf> Updated short-term traded carbon values used for U- public policy African Development Bank appraisal, 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ (2012). Rwanda: African Economic Outlook Series. Tunis. www. uploads/attachment_data/file/240095/short-term_traded_carbon_ africaneconomicoutlook.org. values_used_for_UK_policy_appraisal_2013_FINAL_URN.pdf
Agutamba, K. Dietz, Simon, and Nicholas Stern (2013), Rwandans Give Up on Making Babies to Live Better Lives. In: (2014) Endogenous growth, convexity of damages and climate risk: The Rwanda Focus. Available at: how Nordhaus’ framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions. http://focus.rw/wp/2013/07/rwandans-give-up-on-making-babies-to- http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2471019 live-better-lives/ Doucleff, M. (2012). Rwandan Coffee Farmers Turn Premium Beans into Harvest Gold. Online at: http://www.npr.org/blogs/ Bass S., Wang S., Ferede T. and Fikreyesus, D. thesalt/2012/08/16/158940463/rwandan-coffee-farmers-turn- (2013), Making Growth Green and Inclusive, The Case Of Ethiopia, premium-beans-into-harvest-gold. OECD Green Growth Papers, 2013P07, OECD, Paris.
86 Drechsel P., Cofie O., and Amoah P. Gutierrez, M., McFarland, W. and Fonua, L. (2014) Thirsty Cities: The Urban Water Footprint and the Peri-Urban (2014). Zero poverty… think again. ODI, London. CIGI AND KDI (2012), Interface, A four city case study from west Africa. In Maheshwari, et al Post-2015 Development Agenda: Goals, Tarjetc and Indicators, Special (Eds) The Security of Water, Food, Energy and the Liveability of Cities. Report. Available at < http://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/ http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978P94P017P 8878P6_9 mdg_post_2015v3.pdf page-1 Global Footprint Network Eco Positive (2014), Glossary. Available at
Energy Private Developers Global Water Challenge (2013). Energy Private Developers Your Partners for Energy in Rwanda. (2010). Final Report: Manna Energy. Available at http://www. Available at http://www.epd-rwanda.com/ European Commission globalwaterchallenge.org/newscenter/news-detail.php?id=1069. (EU) (2006), Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity: The world’s ability Green Growth Best Practice (GGBP) to regenerate resources and absorb waste in a limited time period, (2014), Green Growth in Practice Lessons from Country Experiences, Available at: < http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/- Global Green Growth Institute. Green Growth Knowledge Platform SPAUP06P001/EN/-SPAUP06P001PEN.PDF> European Commission (2014). Online at: http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/ (EU) (2014), EIA W A study on costs and benefits, Available at
87 Lankao, Patricia Romero Are we missing the point? Particularities of urbanization, sustainability OECD and carbon emissions in Latin American cities. Environment and (2013a), Putting Green Growth at the Heart of Development Summary Urbanization 19.1 (2007): 159P175. http://eau.sagepub.com/ for Policymakers. Available at http://www.oecd.org/dac/environmentP content/19/1/159.full.pdf development/Putting 20Green 20Growth 20at 20the 20Heart 20of 20Development_Summar y 20For 20Policymakers.pdf Mann D., Namukisa J., Ndibwami A. (2014) Energy and Urbanization in Uganda: Context report and literature OECD review. Uganda Martyrs University – Faculty of the Built Environment (2013b), What Have We Learned from Attempts to Introduce http://samsetproject.site11.com/wpPcontent/uploads/2014/03/ Green Growth Policies?, OECD Green Growth Papers, No. 2013/02, SAMSET_LitPRev_Uganda_FINAL_25P AprilP2014.pdf OECD Publishing.OECD (2013c), Green Growth in Cities, OECD Green Growth Studies, OECD Publishing. Available at http://dx.doi. Manna energy org/10.1787/9789264195325Pen (2010). Final Report Manna Energy. http://www.globalwaterchallenge. org/newscenter/newsPdetail.php?id=1069 OECD/Cedefop (2014), Greener Skills and Jobs, OECD Green Growth Studies, Marge, EUEI PDF and GTZ OECD Publishing. Available at http://www.keepeek.com/Digital- (2009). Biomass Energy Strategy BEST, Rwanda Volume 2 Background Asset-Management/oecd/industry-and-services/greener-skills-and- Analysis. Available at http://www.cleancookstoves.org/resources_files/ jobs_9789264208704-en best-volume-2background.pdf Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) Menanteau, Philippe, Dominique Finon, and Marie-Laure Lamy Baseline Emissions under Business as Usual http://www.piie.com/ Prices versus quantities: choosing policies for promoting the publications/chapters_preview/6079/02iie6079.pdf development of renewable energy. Energy policy 31.8 (2003): 799P812. http://seg.fsu.edu/Library/prices 20vs 20quantities.pdf 1 New York Persson, Torsten Times. Anatomy of Detriot’s Decline http://www.nytimes.com/ Deficits and intergenerational welfare in open economies. Journal of interactive/2013/08/17/us/detroitPdecline.html?_r=0 International Economics 19.1 (1985): 81. http://www.diva-portal.org/ smash/get/diva2:329495/FULLTEXT01.pdf Ngabitsinze, Ch. et al. (2011). Planning and Costing Adaptation of Perennial Crop Prammer, E., Martinuzzi, A. Systems to Climate Change: Coffee and Banana in Rwanda Case Study (2013), The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the PostP2015 Report. Available at: http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/G03174.pdf Debate, European Sustainable Development Network (ESDN) Case Study N˚13. Available at http://www.sd-network.eu/pdf/case 20studies/ Nsengimana H., Bizimana, J.P, and Sezirahiga, Y. ESDN 20Case 20Study_No 2013_MDGs 20and 20post-2015 20debate_ (2011). Study on air Pollution in Rwanda with Reference to Kigali city FINAL.pdf and Vehicular Emissions. Available at: http://rema.gov.rw/rema_doc/PC 20 20IR/Study 20on 20Air 20Pollution 20in 20-igali.pd f Quaas, Martin F., and Sjak Smulders Brown growth, green growth, and the efficiency of urbanization. No. Nsengimana, H., and Bizimana, J.P. 4044. CESifo Working Paper: Resources and Environment, 2012. http:// (2011) Assessment of e-wastes status and trends in Rwanda and www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/69590/1/734851758.pdf development of recommendations for the prevention and management of e-wastes. Published by REMA, Rwanda. Rakodi, C and Lloyd-Jones, T (2002). Urban Livelihoods: A People-centred Approach to Reducing Nury Energy in Africa Poverty. Earthscan. Available at http://nuruenergy.com/nuruPafrica/ Seyfang, G. and Paavola, J. OECD Green Growth (2007), Sustainable Consumption and Environmental Inequalities, (2013). Green Growth in Cities. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment org/urban-rural-and-regional-development/green-growth-in- (CSERGE), Working Paper ECM 07P04. cities_9789264195325Pen
88 Stockholm Environment Institute United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2009). Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda. Available at http://www. (2011). World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. Available at: rema.gov.rw/ccr/Final 20report.pdf http://esa.un.org/unup/
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Taylor, A, and Camaren P. United Nations Development Program (UNEP) (2014) Strengthening climate resilience in African cities. A framework for NAPA Final Evaluation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action- working with informality. zunia.org/sites/default/files/media/node- files/ Country Report: Rwanda. cd/489840_cdkn_acc_wp_final_web-res1.pdf Woodward, D and Simms, A. The Independent (2006) Growth is failing the poor: the unbalanced distribution of the (2011). Growing Remittances a Welcomed Economic Boost. Available benefits and costs of global economic growth. DESA Working Paper No.20. at: http://www.independent.co.ug/news/regional-news/4287-growing- UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Published at: http://www. remittances-a-welcomed-economic-boost- andhttp://www.independent. un.org/esa/desa/papers. co.ug/news/regional-news/4287-growing-remittances-a-welcomed- economic-boost-sthash.i9EtHTW3.dpuf World Bank (2013). Rwanda Economic Update: Maintaining Momentum. Washington D.C. Theuri, D. (2007). Energy Sector Costing to meet Rwanda’s Economic Development World Bank and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) and the East Africa Community (2014). World Bank Blogs on Green Growth. Online at: http://blogs. Regional Access to Modern Energy Services Strategy. worldbank.org/category/tags/green-growth. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi. Weisz, Helga, and Julia K. Steinberger Reducing energy and material flows in cities. Current Opinion in Trois, C, and Rohini J. Environmental Sustainability 2.3 (2010): 185P192. https://www.pik- (2011) Sustained Carbon Emissions Reductions through Zero Waste potsdam.de/members/weisz/recent-publications-1/COSUST611.pdf Strategies for South African Municipalities. Waste Management INTECH Publications (ISBN 978W953W307W179W 4) http://cdn.intechweb.org/ Gigawatt Global pdfs/18498.pdf 2014. Online at: http://gigawattglobal.com/projects/rwanda/
Tsinda, A., Abbot, P. (2012). Review and Analysis of the Situation Pertaining to the Provision of Sanitation to Low-Income Settlements in Kigali city (Rwanda) Diagnostic Report. Available at http://www.researchgate.net/publication/234164338_ Catalysing_SelfP Sustaining_Sanitation_Chains_in_Informal_Settlements_3- PSAN_Catalysing_SelfP Sustaining_Sanitation_Chains_in_Informal_ Settlements_A_Review_and_Analysis_of_the_Situation_pertain ing_to_the_Provision_of_Sanitation_to_Low-Income_Settlements_in_-igali_ City_(Rwanda Diagnostic_Rep
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