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The Portland Trust Table2: Balance of Payments Q4 2013, Q3 and Q4 2014 Figure 2: Al-Quds Index, March 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Change (%) Change (%) 550 Item (USD (USD (USD (Q4 2013-Q4 (Q3 2014-Q4 millions) millions) millions) 2014) 2014) Current Account -$548.5 -$246.3 -$194.3 -64.6 -21.1 530 Trade Balance of Goods -$1,191.8 -$1,362.9 -$1,284.1 7.7 -5.8 The Portland Trust Trade Balance of Services $5.2 -$36.0 $8.8 69.2 -124.4 Income Balance $313.3 $349.1 $339.0 8.2 -2.9 Balance of Current Transfers $324.8 $803.5 $742.0 128.4 -7.7 510 Capital and Financial Account $576.8 $372.2 $168.1 -70.9 -54.8 Net Capital Account $136.5 $78.5 $99.9 -26.8 27.3 Net Financial Account $440.3 $293.7 $86.2 -80.4 -70.7 490 PALESTINIAN ECONOMIC BULLETIN Source: PCBS and PMA 470 International Investment Position National Accounts In line with a medium-term trend, in Q4 2014 the stock of Issue 103 450 The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) released preliminary investments of Palestinian residents outside Palestine April 2015 1 2015 national accounts estimates for Q4 2014. National GDP increased by 6.8% in (total external assets) exceeded investments in Palestine 1/3/2015 2/3/2015 3/3/2015 4/3/2015 5/3/2015 9/3/2015 10/3/2015 11/3/2015 12/3/2015 real terms from the previous quarter to $1,878.6m, but fell 1.1% year on year. by non-residents (total foreign liabilities). Palestine’s 15/03/2015 16/03/2015 17/03/2015 18/03/2015 19/03/2015 22/03/2015 23/03/ 24/03/2015 25/03/2015 26/03/2015 29/03/2015 30/03/2015 31/03/2015 Main reports This expansion followed a sharp contraction of 9.1% in Q3 2014 following the International Investment Position (IIP, defined as external war in Gaza. Real GDP in the West Bank ($1,470.9m) increased by 4% from assets minus foreign liabilities) stood at $1,234m, marking Bank of Palestine (BOP) enjoyed significantly more The World Bank produced Q3 2014 and by 4.9% from Q4 2013. In Gaza, which had seen real GDP fall by a 5.4% increase compared to the previous quarter.12 The liquidity than the other listed companies, providing 42.5% 28.4% in Q3 2014, GDP rose by 18.5% in the last quarter of 2014 to $407.7m, observed change was the result of a $14m increase in of the volume and 56.5% of the total value of shares a report on Palestine’s indicating a partial recovery from the economic damage caused by the war in external assets as well as a $49m drop in foreign liabilities. traded. This included over $30m in new investment from electricity sector, citing the summer. Public administration and defence continued to make up a very While foreign portfolio investments increased by $43m, international investment funds, Gulf investors and local non-payment to the Israel 14 high proportion of GDP in Gaza, at 35.6%, compared to just 7% in the West this was more than offset by declining foreign direct and expatriate Palestinians. This was important, given Electric Corporation as a Bank. Much of the growth in Gaza was driven by improvements in construction investment (down by $33m) and reduced foreign holdings that Kuwait Kharafi Group decided to sell its entire 7% hindrance to fiscal and (up by 159% to $17.1m, but still lagging significantly behind its previous levels) of currency and deposits (down by $48m) in Palestine. share of the company, in order to prevent instability in the market. Of particular note, Kuwaiti investor Mr. Qais economic stability and wholesale & retail trade (up by 64%, although again still substantially Abdullah Thunayan Al-Ghanim raised his share in BOP’s lower than the levels achieved throughout 2013 and up to Q2 2014). However, March Trading stocks to 5%. In related news, BOP gained approval from A new Credit Guarantee compared to the corresponding quarter in 2013, real GDP in Gaza was down In March the Al-Quds index decreased by 4.8%, reaching a the PMA to distribute $34.2m in dividends for the year 2014, Facility to support the 18.3%, highlighting that Gaza has a long way to go to even achieve parity with peak of 506.01 on 9 March and closing the month at 474.94.13 21.4% of the company’s paid-in capital, to be split between recovery of the private the already depressed economic conditions of 2013. For 2014 as a whole, The General and Services sectors performed particularly $15m in stock and $19.2m in cash.15 These dividends are sector in Gaza will soon be national real GDP is estimated to have decreased by 0.4% overall, which when poorly, falling by 4.1% and 10.4%, respectively. National the largest, in terms of value, in BOP’s history. launched by the World Bank disaggregated translates into a 5.1% rise in the West Bank and a substantial Aluminium and Profile enjoyed the best performance, with 15.2% fall in Gaza. Figure 1 shows the high volatility in growth experienced in its share price rising 25%, while Palestine Plastic Industrial Zahi Khouri was announced recent years, which is particularly significant in Gaza. saw double digit improvements for the third consecutive as one of five honourees month. Arab Hotels saw its share price drop dramatically, Figure 1: Quarterly GDP Growth by Region (%), 2000-2014 globally of the Business for falling by 34.2%. A total of 31.3m shares, worth $59.4m, 30 were traded in March. This marked an increase of 151.8% Peace Foundation’s 2015 Oslo Business for Peace 20 in the volume and 142% in the value of traded shares from Award February. Market capitalisation was $2.99bn, down by 10 4.1% from $3.12bn in February. In Q4 2014 the current account deficit reached 0 6.4% of quarterly GDP at -10 12 www.pcbs.gov.ps/portals/_pcbs/PressRelease/Press_En_IIP2014Q4E.pdf 14 www.bankofpalestine.com/en/media-center/newsroom/details/455 current prices, a substantial Q2/2000 Q4/2000 Q2/2001 Q4/2001 Q2/2002 Q4/2002 Q2/2003 Q4/2003 Q2/2004 Q4/2004 Q2/2005 Q4/2005 Q2/2006 Q4/2006 Q2/2007 Q4/2007 Q2/2008 Q4/2008 Q2/2009 Q4/2009 Q2/2010 Q4/2010 Q2/2011 Q4/2011 Q2/2012 Q4/2012 Q2/2013 Q4/2013 Q2/2014 Q4/2014 13 www.pex.ps/PSEWebSite/publications/PEXIssue-7apr2015.pdf 15 www.bankofpalestine.com/en/media-center/newsroom/details/458 decline from the previous -20 quarter -30 In Q4 2014 Palestine’s Palestine West Bank Gaza Strip International Investment Source: PCBS Position (defined as external Real GDP per capita increased by 6.1% in Q4 2014, to reach $432.6 at the The Palestinian Economic Bulletin is prepared by the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute (MAS) and edited by The assets minus foreign national level. It rose by 3.3% in the West Bank to $574.6, while Gaza saw GDP Portland Trust. Please send any comments, suggestions, or complaints to feedback@portlandtrust.org liabilities) stood at $1,234m, per capita rise by 17.5% to $228.7. The latter is an improvement from Q3, when © 2015 The Portland Trust marking a 5.4% increase per capita GDP levels reached their lowest since 2008, but still sees West Printed for The Portland Trust in Ramallah by Al Nasher Advertising and PR from Q3 2014 Bank incomes 2.5 times higher than in Gaza. For 2014 overall, real GDP per 1 www.pcbs.gov.ps/portals/_pcbs/PressRelease/Press_En_QNAQ42014E.pdf Page 4/4 Page 1/4 capita reached $1,734.6, sustaining the huge gap between The World Bank report also highlights the high network The new CGF will place companies in a better position to Income Tax Law Update the West Bank ($2,265.4) and Gaza ($970.3). losses arising from poor infrastructure (estimated at 23- negotiate existing loan restructuring as well as new loans On 6 April President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree to 30% between 2010 and 2013) and electricity theft, which with the financial institutions, in addition to contributing amend the Palestinian Income Tax Law.8 The amendment cause significant revenue loss to Palestinian distributors. to stabilising the banking system by offering to share the Electricity Sector comes as a response to a sustained period of difficult As distributors lack proper tools to measure losses, risk with the CGF. In this way, the facility will make credit According to a recent World Bank report, despite the economic conditions in Palestine, with the aim of easing they cannot differentiate between technical and non- more accessible for businesses which have lost collateral electricity sector in Palestine undergoing reforms to the tax burden and stimulating increased consumption and technical losses. In 2013, for instance, network losses and face difficulties in accessing financial resources. increase its efficiency, non-payment to the largest investment in the local economy. The annual exemption caused Palestinian distributors to lose 726m NIS ($201m) Mr Youssef Habesch, IFC Principal Country Officer, supplier, the Israel Electric Corporation (IEC), remains a on salaries has been set at 36,000 NIS (instead of the in revenues. In the West Bank, invoiced amounts to end representing the World Bank Group, said, “The CGF will key challenge that is impacting the overall fiscal situation.2 previous level of 30,000 NIS), while amended income tax customers (i.e.
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