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Home , Space colonization

April 17, 2011

Expediting Factors in Developing a Successful Space

An Interactive Qualifying Project Report completed in partial fulfillment of the Bachelor of Science degree at Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Submitted to:

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Professor Mayer Humi Mathematical Sciences

Produced By:

Michael Egan John Kreso

This report represents work of WPI undergraduate students submitted to the faculty as evidence of a degree requirement. WPI routinely publishes these reports on its web site without editorial or peer review. For more information about the projects program at WPI, see http://www.wpi.edu/Academics/Projects.

ABSTRACT

This project studies human interaction with space and investigates the feasibility and sustainability of creating an extraterrestrial colony. Commercial interests and the preservation of humanity have recently rejuvenated curiosity and desire to expand . The biggest technical setback in space activity is the high cost of space transportation. A revolution in propulsion is needed to make colonizing space a possibility. This report investigates the buildup of this breakthrough and how it would change of humanity.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ...... 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 5

INTRODUCTION ...... 6

BACKGROUND ...... 8

US ...... 8

HUMAN INTEREST IN SPACE ...... 10

COLONY LOCATION ...... 11

PROBLEMS ...... 12

FEASIBILITY ISSUES ...... 12

SUSTAINABILITY OF COLONY ...... 18

PROLONGED SPACE EXPOSURE FOR HUMANS ...... 20

SOLUTION ...... 21

PROPULSION AND TECHNOLOGY ...... 21

COMMERCIALIZATION ...... 25

PROTECTION AND SAFETY ...... 27

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ...... 30

IMPACT ON SOCIETY ...... 30

OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE ...... 32

CONCLUSION ...... 36

RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 37

WORKS CITED ...... 39

APPENDIX ...... 40

LIST OF FIGURES ...... 40 MATHEMATICAL MODELING ...... 41 DATA AND SOURCE EVALUATION ...... 43

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This project determines some of the major factors that will help expedite the creation and ensure the success of a colony in space. This goal has always been a source or wonder for humanity, and achieving it would bring about many opportunities for the human race. A lunar or other celestial colony would not only extend human’s capabilities in space, but would bring about great changes on . The ability to perform research and gather resources somewhere other than earth will lead to many scientific discoveries and provide a better understanding of how humans interact with their environment.

After concluding our research and analysis, we determined that propulsion technology, commercialization of space, and bioengineering the body would have the greatest impact on the long term sustainability of human presence in space. These three factors are not only necessary for a space colony to be possible, but are critical for the advancement of humanity on earth as well. Without a revolution in propulsion methods, it is too expensive to make the continuous trips from earth to space that are required to sustain an initial colony. Bioengineering is necessary for the human body to be able to withstand longer missions into space, and must be significantly improved for a colony’s inhabitants to have a realistic chance of survival. Finally commercialization is monumental for all space activities, because profitability is the only thing that drives discovery. It will also increase the funding for the required research to take place and ensure the continuation of whatever mission is implemented.

Our ultimate goal is to determine how the preparation and eventual of space will affect humans on earth. Sending people to live permanently in space will be the culmination of over a hundred years of technology and research and will be remembered as humanity’s greatest achievement. Such an important event will unify humans on earth and demonstrate the remarkable things humanity is capable of. This will have a lasting impact on the makeup of our world and will hopefully reduce the problems that society faces today. We are interested in studying this entire process, not because of a need for a new business sector such as space, but because colonizing space will come to define the nature of humanity more than any event in the foreseeable future.

5 INTRODUCTION

One of the most significant challenges facing our society today is the incredible feat of colonizing space. Whether it is for scientific research or in hopes of bettering life on earth, extending humanity’s habitable domain has always been at the top of human curiosity and intrigue. Apocalyptic stories combined with current technological levels make humans wonder how possible it would be to permanently inhabit space. The vast knowledge and technology needed to accomplish this combined with the profound impact it will have on humans would make a sustainable space colony one of earth’s crowning achievements. Without a doubt, humanity’s future will be highly dependent on successes in space and how humans can use the outcomes for the good of society. Conquering the extreme environments of space will not only expand human knowledge of the , but will also tell us a great deal about humanity and why humans evolved in such a unique way. This project focuses on the inherent obstacles and possible solutions for sustaining human life outside the boundaries of mother earth. While we do not expect to come up with a viable plan to colonize space, we seek to determine the factors that will contribute to the first and how creating a second world for humans will shape and come to define humanity.

This project was very intriguing to us because it involves one of humanity's greatest curiosities and applies engineering to solve conceptual problems for the future. Along with technical expertise, a large amount of creativity and outside the box thinking is needed to solve the problems humans face in space. Analyzing obstacles is a major part of an engineer’s teaching, and being taught to solve the most challenging problems in innovative and efficient ways prepared us well for this subject matter. Engineering for space has much more extreme conditions and consequences than on earth, and most of the solutions are impossible without originality and effectiveness because of the limited resources available and the groundbreaking nature of these challenges. This not only applies to our career goals but also our goals as a human. The knowledge acquired during this project will give us an understanding of why we are here and what we need to engineer a better future, which in years to come may depend on space.

This topic easily leads into future IQPs because there are many aspects that need to be analyzed for space to be implemented. Two important facets that would complement our project involve human thoughts on space and the planning of colonies. In order for all of the time and expenses of going to space to be worth it, humanity has to believe in and stand behind the efforts. A space program must be created that regains popular interest and sparks like when nations were fighting to be the first to set foot on the . Also, the layout of the colony is a major contributor to this motivation. If a colony is developed that is able to sustain life, it must also be visually pleasing and easy to maintain so people are attracted to live there. Once a demonstration of the ability to colonize space has taken place, many of the technological issues we face today will be replaced with social challenges for mankind.

6

The impacts of this topic, should humanity and technology develop as expected, are so great that people will need to know much more about space and its effect on humans than they do now. Our project could serve as the intermediate step between general information and technical reports so people could learn information in a format they will be able to understand. Charts and historical information are helpful to show people the progression of humanity's interactions with space and the possibilities for the future. It also explains the need for single stage space crafts in the near future from an economic standpoint. Getting investors to buy into such a radical research and development process could become easier if the general public identifies that as a major goal of humanity for this century.

Successful completion of this project will give us a great deal of knowledge on a topic that will surely give birth to new industries and possibly new worlds in our future. Depending on how widespread human's dependence on space is in the future, this project may also help us predict the social aspects of how the world is changing and what that would mean for humanity. The union of engineering challenges and humanity's reactions to them are what make this project unique and so fitting to be an IQP. While engineering has made life substantially easier and more comfortable today, better attention to how society adapts to technology can only build on current successes. This will be monumental in the ability of people to life satisfying and happy lives in space, and will also greatly affect the quality of life for humanity on earth.

7 BACKGROUND

US SPACE POLICY

This paper on the United States space policy will consider the intentions of the country in space as well as space goals for space utilization. It seeks to enhance our understanding of the motivation and determination of the US in the battle against space through two main points. First, the driving force behind why the United States wants to continue its journey in space and its goals in space. Second, the creation of international cooperation to aid the United States and limitations set by the United States to any competitors. Since the US plans to dominate this era in space, how might this be limiting to them without much help and why this space monopoly might be best for them.

The capitalist ways of the United States always seem to be driven by economic means and within space this is not so different. Although the US is interested in homeland security and foreign policy objectives, the implementation of a sustainable exploration program to benefit them financially through their national journeying, scientific findings and environmental activities. “Enable a dynamic, globally competitive domestic commercial space sector in order to promote innovation, strengthen U.S. leadership and protect national, homeland and economic security” (US Policy, 10). This space sector will be supported by a robust science and technology base to encourage cooperation from foreign nations for mutual benefit to all parties involved. A nonviolent approach will lead to more successes and the United States will look to advance in all its interests; in national security, homeland security and foreign policy objectives. The United States will use space by commercial means to benefit and create economic growth. Improving space travel along with expanding the capabilities of exploration can lead to the extension the human race across the . The United States focuses on improving and advancing our technology and experience to ensure the future success of space related missions. The success of mission success is dependent on creation of a flourishing environment. The space infrastructure can create commercial development for private use and economic enhancement.

Although the United States is looking for international cooperation, many limitations have been placed on foreign involvement in benefit of the US. Continuing to grow and prosper the United States demands that they are given complete access to space and actions in space are in national interest to be of peaceful purposes. Limitation of the United States in space proposes a threat to national security and will be treated like an attack to the US. Cooperation is welcome to the US, but the United States will decline any endeavor to limit US activity in space. Any attempts to create a governing body of space which limit the United States to operate in a free manner will be heavily conflicting with national interests of the US. “The United States is committed to the exploration and use of by all nations for peaceful purposes, and for the benefit of all humanity. Consistent with this principle, ‘peaceful purposes’ allow the U.S. defense and intelligence- related activities in pursuit of national interests” (US Policy, 1). The United States claims

8 rights to space and wishes that other nations aid the US for further discoveries and successes but does not want to be limited in any way or form. To protect and promote freedom globally, the United States declared to cooperate with other nations by extending the benefits of space to all. Enhancing the program and using space capabilities is vital to its national interests. The United States will respond to any nation that seeks to interfere, and plans to reject any use of space capabilities that are unfriendly to U.S. interests.

Space is a promising enterprise for scientific discovery, commercialization, and expanding the human race in the future. As the United States searches for a dominate position in space, they mark their territory with caution to any seeking to disrupt their progress. The United States is looking for aid in this seemingly impossible task but at no point wants to be held back by disagreements with foreign nations. The US claims the right to all imaginable activities in space, and is willing to defend their interests at any cost. The United States’ goals will ensure future success in space related missions and be the stepping stone to establish precedents for future operations in space. Encouraging national cooperation and creating an environment that makes mission success possible will lead to a flourishing space infrastructure.

Another interesting aspect of the US policy is the clause about the use of space infrastructure. The US intends to make all of the structures it builds in space available to private corporations in hope of sparking commercial success. By limiting the initial time and investment needed to access space, the government has set its country’s private space corporations decade ahead of competing countries. This will allow for the space sector to be commercialized much quicker and more effectively. Because the goals of the US are to use space any way possible to benefit economic growth, this clause is vital to the purpose of the policy. “If space activity is going to pay off economically, someone other than a government has to provide a return on the government’s investment in space infrastructure” (Shipman, 245). Eventually the profits and benefits of a more privatized space sector will pay off for the government. The billions of dollars and decades spent developing the basic space infrastructure will be offset by a thriving economy and improved quality of life on earth. Although the US space policy serves to mark its territory and discourage competition, it also maps out the future of the government’s space program and encourages private development with little regulation and large subsidies.

9 HUMAN INTEREST IN SPACE

Humanity has always had a special attraction to adventure and discovery. North America was only discovered by Columbus because Europeans sought more spices and riches. The exploring spirit is a common element found in nearly every voyage for discovery. This sense of adventure is one of pride, curiosity and heroic means. Space is the greatest adventure imaginable to scientists and has led to many people wanting to go to there in person to learn its deepest and darkest secrets. Humans have projected upon space their hopes, fears, analytic abilities and other paraphernalia of psyche with unending vigor. The myths, science, accomplishments as well as disasters have all been results of the human interaction with space. Our main focus in space will be primarily be low earth and the existing bodies that lie in that area such as the moon and near earth . The duration the human body can survive in space has been shown to be over a year with correct exercise, dieting and training. Muscle loss, bone thinning, and exposure as well as meteors and other threaten every step of space exploration. Some of the possible first colonists of space will be separated into two categories; forced into space and going to space by choice. These categories can overlap in some cases but forced into space would resemble a scientist looking to pursue unfriendly earth experiments and going by choice could be extracting -3 from the moon for cheaper source of energy. The goal of all humanity is to protect and advance the species through the means of scientific exploration and discovery that will take place in space in the future.

10 COLONY LOCATION

Our research concludes that the first colony in space will be formed on the moon for the extraction of Helium-3 to supply the insatiable demand for energy on earth. The moon is ideal for the first colony since the travel distance is minimal, therefore many trips could easily be made to transport necessary supplies and take back the resources. The colony will be of minimal size and used for commercialization to obtain Helium-Three for people on earth and very possibly to be used to self-sustain the colony itself. Our research shows that few humans will operate this colony, mainly the brains and repairmen, as will do the backbreaking tasks, outside missions, and transportation flights to and from earth. The moon is also a great starting point for a colony because humans already have a good understanding of its terrain. Water has also been spotted on the polar caps of the moon which would be a fundamental resource needed to keep the humans inhabiting the colony alive. This could be investigated further if there was a colony on the moon already mining the surface. Water is a great sign for future colonists and if the resource is available, accessible and within reasonable distance of this colony then possible success of the colony will be much greater. The gravity on the moon is about one-sixth of earth’s gravity thus a gravity controlled colony would be necessary for humans. This is not true for robots, as they can withstand this gravity difference without a problem. Another important factor to consider is that the moon will always be a relatively safe habitat for humans if earth is not destroyed. Since the moon is in orbit around the earth, we know that it will stay in the habitable region of our solar system and therefore is possible to be colonized.

Although it is not as likely, there is a possibility that will contain the first extraterrestrial colony. Water has been discovered underneath its red oxide surface rocks and within the red dust in the CO2 based atmosphere. Even though the gravity on Mars is double that on the moon, the difference from earth would still be harmful to the muscles and bones of humans. Again robots will be essential to a successful space colony since their internal structure is not dependent on gravity. Mars is already out of the habitable region so therefore is not a great location for the first space colony but certainly will not be overlooked down the road because of its size and resources.

11 PROBLEMS

FEASIBILITY ISSUES Currently, it is still not technologically feasible to colonize space. Although many countries and a few private corporations have the capability to travel to space, the high levels of technology needed to sustain human life in space still do not exist. A more efficient method of propulsion is needed to make space missions more economically feasible. The high cost of launching objects into space, which would be undoubtedly necessary to start a colony, is still a deterrent for large missions. Until more frequent and cheaper ways of sending people and goods into LEO exists, the planning stages of creating the first space colony will not even be possible. Also, protecting the human body from the harsh conditions of space becomes a much greater problem when the time spend in space is years instead of months. Bioengineering is a key factor that can combat the negative effects on humans. This can be done either by adapting humans to be more resistant to these effects, or by creating better protective suits and ways to ensure the prolonged health of humans. Even if the propulsion technology and infrastructure were available in space to start a colony, without better ways to guarantee the safety of humans the first colonies still would not be able to sustain human life.

Another issue that prevents a colony in space from being possible today is the rising costs and decreased funding for space programs. Government spending in the U.S. has been stagnant for decades and there simply is not enough research to create the technology needed. NASA receives less 1 cent per dollar government spends, and less than 5% of that went to the . In addition to this, the “single most significant problem with US space program is that it does not have a direction or goal to focus its space-based activities” (Hardersen, 70-71). This is because the resources are spread so thin that to take on multiple projects at once, which this projects proves to be required to make noticeable progress towards colonization, the best strategies cannot be pursued due to lack of funding.

Because of this, the required capital must come from profits acquired in space. This is why it is so important for initial space activities to be profit oriented. A successful commercial system must also be established before a colony can exist in space. “The history of human exploration indicates that some commercial payoff is essential if the exploratory effort is to be sustained” (Shipman, 245). Without a method of generating profits, sending humans to space will eventually need to stop because the resources and interest will be depleted.

Some level of government and private cooperation is also necessary because the experience and resources of government space agencies is needed but without the lofty visions and profit based motives of the newer private sector, space colonies will never be more than a science fiction dream. Because space industries are mostly not profitable up front, commercial activity in space will not happen for a long if left up to the private sector alone (Shipman, 294). This is why it is so important for the two sides to collaborate and work towards the same goal. Doing so will provide the struggling government space

12 program with a fresh strategy, and the private industry with the infrastructure and wisdom needed to succeed.

Creating the first colony in space is not something that will happen on its own. The initiatives must be started to make it feasible, because otherwise the required technology and investments will never come about on their own. A breakthrough in propulsion would serve as the catalyst to this entire process. Better means of propulsion will not only lower the costs of space transportation enough to make commercial efforts feasible but also spark enough interest to improve outdated technology. This would allow for increase human activity and presence in space and would mark the first step in sending humans to live permanently somewhere other than earth. The following graphs show cost and profit estimates for various commercial ventures in space and act as a starting point for analysis on what is required to make a colony in space feasible as an initial investment and as a long term business opportunity.

Figure 1

This graph shows how the number of guests each year affects the gross revenue of a hotel in space. Guest estimates are based on a market study relating cost of hotel stay to expected interest (Bekey, 56-57). Revenue is cost of stay multiplied by the number of guests per year. When the launch costs to hotel orbit decrease, the cost to stay in the space

13 hotel will drop significantly. This in turn will create much more demand for rooms in the hotel.

If we assume a module or room weighs 2000kg and the cost of hotel stay per person equals the launch cost times 250, then only 8 guests would be needed to pay off an additional module launch. This means that regular additions to hotel capacity when launch costs drop would be extremely profitable and would lower costs and increase demand.

LEO Launch Cost vs. Revenue

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000 Millions ofDollars/year

0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Dollars/kg

Figure 2

This graph is similar to Guests vs. Revenue but instead uses launch cost as the dependent variable. All of the same assumptions and estimates are used in this analysis.

The trend shows that current launch costs have to be cut by a factor of 2.5 in order for a space hotel to generate any revenue at all (10 years away by current estimates). This is due to the high cost of a stay and corresponding low demand. The real profitable region starts when launch costs are less than a tenth of what they are today. Once this barrier is reached then demand will not be limited to income brackets and the limiting factor will be the hotels capacity. As shown in Profit vs. Year below, the cost to expand with lowered launch costs is extremely low compared to the expected yearly return so hotels would most likely expand faster than they could be filled. If this business proves profitable over time, then space hotels would grow in size and number until everyone interested in visiting

14 space could have the chance. I believe that this will happen within the next 100 years and will resemble the first orbiting .

Figure 3

This graph considers the manufacturing of goods in space and analyzes the retail costs and bulk weight needed to turn profit for a range of launch costs. The red trend, which represents the mass of product sold, assumes a retail cost of $20,000/kg. For this variable the units are kilograms. The yellow trend is the retail cost/kg and assumes 25,000 kg of product sold. For this variable the units are dollars.

As the launch costs decrease, corporations can charge less for their final product or manufacture less of the product. These trends could serve as a guideline for investors to determine whether their business venture will be profitable based on the current launch cost, expected retail price, and the quantity of goods being produced.

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Figure 4

This chart considers an orbital research laboratory with a varied number of labs or modules. These trends show the time needed for investors to earn their money back based on the number of modules operating on the . Assumed is $100 billion initial space station cost, $50 million operating cost/lab/year, and $100 million revenue/lab/year. Similar estimates were given by (Zubrin, 60-64).

By these estimates and assumptions, research labs and space stations would need at least 25 modules to be profitable at any point in their operational lifetime. The ISS has less than this but was not designed to be profitable and is not entirely used for research. As launch costs decrease over time, smaller space stations will be economically feasible and more likely to attract investors. Until this happens, however, large space stations will likely be the only ones considered and such a large capital investment most likely rules out private ventures. Lab revenues, which were fixed for this analysis, are actually more likely to vary than launch cost and could greatly distort these trends.

16

Figure 5

This graph shows the relationship between launch cost to greater earth orbit and the price of electricity needed to break even on initial investment. Assumed was a 1000MW solar power weighing 40 million kilograms, and GEO launch cost equal to 4 times LEO launch cost. Also, this analysis is for solar power generated in space that is to be used on earth.

Even with a great drop in GEO cost, the price for power is still orders of magnitude greater than what we pay today on earth. The initial investment is also far too great to make this a profitable business venture. The only promise that SPS systems show are if the weight and efficiency of solar cells greatly decrease and increase respectively or if energy is not available from another source. Solar power generation in space will most likely be reserved for use in space so that the transmission losses will be greatly reduced.

17

SUSTAINABILITY OF COLONY

Although the focus now is on how a space colony can be made feasible, the underlying challenge is to make such a colony sustainable. Since the purpose of a colony is to be a long term habitat for humans, then the primary task is to work up to the point when this is possible. A large part of making a colony sustainable is having enough energy and resources to maintain human life and support the activities that the colony was created for. The main purpose of a colony highly affects these requirements. A research colony would most likely consist of a medium number of living inhabitants and a significant amount of laboratory and observation equipment. For this settlement, a moderate amount of food would be needed along with a substantial energy source. A mining colony, on the other hand, would consist of heavy machinery, robots and far fewer humans to act as supervisors. Despite needing less food to sustain this type of colony, a much greater amount of energy would be needed. Finally, if we consider a space that’s main purpose was to facilitate human inhabitants, the food and nutritional requirements would be a major concern while energy levels could be low to moderate compared with the other colony applications.

Using the same three colony examples, it is necessary to also compare the required interactions with earth. For this comparison it must be assumed that colonies cannot provide their own food and that these resources must be sent from earth. Also, and any sharing of ideas or information are also considered interactions with earth. If these were not true and a colony could provide for itself then it would most likely already be feasible and sustainable. Research colonies would need frequent interactions with earth to share new ideas and test out concepts on earth. Since only a medium amount of food is essential to sustaining this colony, the frequency of communication visits would be more than sufficient to transport all needed food and resources. For the mining settlement, there would only need to be somewhat frequent trips from space to earth and vice versa to send the mined resources to earth and the required food to space. Communication for anything other than emergencies would be minimal because the people in control of the operation would most likely be in space supervising the operations. A purely human colony would call for the most interaction with earth because of the high amount of food and resources required on a daily basis. This type of colony is the hardest to make sustainable. This is due to the fact that there are more humans who need to be kept alive and there is no source of profit to guarantee the feasibility of sustained efforts. From a humanitarian standpoint this is the ultimate goal, to sustain prolonged human life outside of the earth’s ecosystem. It is also the most advanced and expensive colony and it’s the farthest off from becoming possible in the future.

One final thing to consider when determining the sustainability of a colony is the length of time that colony is expected to last. Human habitats and research settlements would most likely be designed to last indefinitely to maximize the value of investments. This would require frequent yet long term commitments for a resource and investment standpoint. A mining colony however would be designed to last only as long as needed to extract all valuable resources from the colony location. This type of colony would not

18 need to be long term sustainable. Because of this, the very first colony is almost certainly going to be similar to a mining operation on earth. This would be the most profitable out of the three types, and also the most simple technologically. Such a establishment in space could be used to test out bioengineering advances so that eventually humans will have the capability to stay in space for longer and longer periods of time, working up to the when a non-profitable human settlement is possible long term.

Propulsion is by far the most significant contributor to making a colony initially feasible, but it contributes little to making that same colony sustainable. Bioengineering becomes the more important aspect of technological advancement because the protection of human life is the most challenging problem regarding long term stays in space. Commercialization also plays an important role because the sustained funding for these expensive colonies cannot realistically come from government budgets or private investments. If a colony does not have a commercial motive, then it is that much harder to not only sustain but to start in the first place. This is the main reason why a colony for only humans is so difficult to establish.

19 PROLONGED SPACE EXPOSURE FOR HUMANS

Over many generations of prolonged isolation and bioengineering in space, some humans will undoubtedly lose their ability to successfully procreate with each other. Also, for some colony locations the trip to or from earth will be a significant percentage of a human's lifetime. Therefore a requirement for indefinite success of a colony is a way to create offspring other than the traditional pregnancy. With limited medical resources, live childbirth in space is too risky of a procedure for a colony's survival to be dependent on. Bioengineering on earth has already progressed a lot in this field but because of the harsh environment of space, a baby would have to be adapted to be born and develop properly in space.

In order to fully understand the detrimental effects that space has on humans, testing would need to focus on the aspects of the earth's environment that differ most with those in space. First, humans are very susceptible to radiation so they would either need to be highly protected, or treated so that radiation does not have as much of a negative effect on the body. Humans would also have to withstand great temperature variations in space if a suitable environment could not be designed. Our chemical makeup would have to change severely if unprotected humans would be able to withstand the harsh temperatures of our solar system. Certain pressures would also have to be maintained in order for our bodies to function normally as they do on earth. The levels of gravity take a toll on human bones and muscles as well, and would have to be increased in space for us to exist for long periods of time. Finally, light is a very important but often overlooked factor that contributes to the function of the brain. In order to maintain sanity and normal biological processes, humans in space would need to get the right amount of sunlight. Many of these variables could be tested in the extreme environments on earth to see how different levels affect the human body, but eventually the research would have to be continued in space to see how versatile our body truly is.

20 SOLUTION

PROPULSION AND TECHNOLOGY

Propulsion is one of the major factors delaying the colonization of space. Until there are cheaper and more effective methods of propulsion to LEO, the level of commercial activity in space will not be large enough to sustain life. Because of a colony's basic survival needs, there must be regular contact with earth. Commercialization of near outer space would almost guarantee that level of interaction with a colony. Current technology does not support successful commercialization of space because the transportation is too expensive to be feasible. A new and revolutionary type of propulsion would need to be developed to make starting a space business attractive to investors. This is the very reason why one of NASA's main initiatives is to cut the launch cost per pound to LEO by a factor of five. Single Stage To Orbit vehicles offer a very good solution to this problem. They operate using a propulsion system that only expends exhaust products. This allows SSTO vehicles to be highly reusable making them more similar to space airplanes than traditional space shuttles and . Some believe that this technology is so promising that "the people who build and operate SSTO spaceships will dominate space for the first half of the next century" (Schmidt and Zubrin, 15).

SSTO is the most promising future technology to drive humans into space, but there are other options that have been proposed. The complete opposite of SSTO might actually be the best solution to the problem of space propulsion. Instead of frequent trips with low payloads as SSTO is predicted to be, it is also possible to create huge spaceships to transport a significant portion of all the materials needed to create a colony in space in one trip. By greatly increasing the size of simpler ships, the cost of improving technology is eliminated. This obstacle is one of the largest inhibitors for the first colony because of the long time and high amount of money required. The reason why we decided to concentrate on SSTO is because our research indicated that the frequent amount of trips is needed to have a successful colony. However the large mass transport ships would be extremely cost effective and useful to bring the raw materials for colony infrastructure to space.

The main difference between the propulsion systems of today and the ones that will allow humans to easily access space in the future is the number of stages. All space missions to date have been powered by multistage rockets. These feature multiple stages of fuel that get burned off and detach from the . When first considering how to propel objects into orbit, multistage propulsion systems are the clear favorite. This is mostly because the maximum exit velocity for a single stage rocket is only fast enough to reach without a payload.

Payloads such as can be very heavy and need to go further away from earth to stay geosynchronous. Higher final velocities were needed for these missions, and the only way to achieve these with current technology is to use more fuel meaning more stages. Including the allowed safety factor and margin of error, it was impossible to reach the required orbit with the desired payload unless more than one rocket stage was used.

21 With improved technology in the future, less fuel can be used to achieve the same velocity so it will be possible to use single stage propulsion for comparable missions.

Selection of the optimal chemical fuel has provided many challenges in the past because of the vast tradeoffs between available possibilities. is preferred because it is very prevalent on earth and can be easily burned with . It is also has a great combustion efficiency, cooling abilities, and low condensed mass compared to other fuels. Although it has the highest thrust to mass ratio of any rocket fuel, it requires very large and heavy fuel tanks which make the structural design of the vehicle much more difficult. This also is a huge setback to decreasing the structure to overall mass ration that is required to make SSTO possible. Therefore future single stage rockets using chemical propellants will not use hydrogen unless a better way to store it is discovered.

Many new types of propulsion systems have been considered for SSTO vehicles, but a few stand out as the most likely candidates to succeed multi-stage bell nozzle rockets. First, an Aerospike engine will probably be used as the primary drive source because of its great ability to be efficient at various altitudes. These types of engines do not have to be optimized for certain pressures and can remain efficient in either the earth’s atmosphere or the space vacuum. Although current technology is not nearly advanced enough to develop beaming technology, it will be the preferred propulsion method of the future because of its capability to produce far more thrust than burning chemical fuels.

WPI professor Mayer Humi gives comprehensive analysis of the equations behind rocket motion in his lecture notes for the course 'Modeling with Ordinary Differential Equations'. He states that for optimized and ideal single stage rockets, the mathematical limit for the payload variable is 1/56th the total initial mass of the spacecraft. Using the same method, Humi finds the limit for optimized ideal multi stage rockets to be 1/77th the initial mass (Humi, 48-49). Despite these being small fractions, the payloads can be very large considering that the estimated weight for first generation SSTO vehicles is 1 million kilograms. This is a conservative weight because it was based on the lighter and faster ship concepts. More analysis and explanation of modeling can be found in the Appendix.

For a spacecraft with this weight, the difference in theoretical maximum payloads is 5000 kilograms. This may not seem like a big difference, but it is remarkable. This extra space could be worth as much as $100 million, which is also the same amount of revenue that was assumed to be needed to attract investors. This would be possible if the payload was used to transport goods made in space to be sold and used on earth. All of the estimates and assumptions used to obtain these values are the same as in the Launch Cost Economics analysis.

This realization alone is a great incentive to make the switch from multistage rocket ships to single stage to orbit vehicles. One mission can generate enough extra profits to interest investors in entire new commercial ventures in space. SSTO capability will permanently open space as a business platform because of both its power to lower costs and its power to frequently bring humans and goods to and from space.

22 This difference means that a single stage rocket is capable of carrying 1.375 times the payload of a multi stage rocket. This difference is due to the extra fuel and structure masses needed to support the multistage system. It is important to note that the same systems that account for this difference allow for the rocket to reach higher final velocities so the ships are more versatile and have much better top end capabilities.

Future SSTO vehicles will be much more efficient because of better fuel technology. This will lead to a faster exit gas velocity, which would greatly increase the maximum final rocket velocity. This is the breakthrough that is needed to finally allow SSTO to be utilized. Without matching current final velocity capabilities, SSTOs will never be able to show their superiority in other areas.

Also, in the analysis given by M. Humi, all initial velocities are assumed to be zero. This does not have to be the case for future single stage vehicles, because other means of propulsion (in addition to the one stage rocket) will likely be integrated into the design. This would lead to much higher final velocities and the capability to use single stage propulsion to get objects regularly into orbit.

A proven requirement for a space colony is an increase in human activity and presence in space. This cannot be done will current propulsion methods because it is economically unfeasible to build a large number of space vessels and the current ones take a long time to be ready for subsequent missions. The only way to improve the turnaround time for current spacecrafts is to reduce the number and complexity of propulsion stages.

Multistage rockets were chosen during the early space programs because the missions were heavy lift one-time ventures. In the near future, when space is being commercialized, the majority of the need for space ships will be low payload and frequent trips. Because of this, it is more sensible to research sing stage propulsion even though multistage was superior in the past.

Compared to current methods of travelling to space, SSTO is far superior in almost every way. Despite the high initial cost, these ships are commercially feasible because they can journey to and from space roughly 100 times per year and at that rate would have a useful lifetime of 5 years. The large majority of the cost of current is the 25,000 people needed to ready the ship for its next flight. Reusable SSTO vehicles would eliminate this cost, making them far less expensive on subsequent missions. These savings would help offset the research and development costs that were put in to achieving SSTO flight. With improved propulsive efficiency and the ability to carry 10 tons of personnel and payload, SSTO is estimated to cost only $200 per kilogram for transportation to LEO. That would represent a fifty-fold decrease from the current cost of $10,000 per kilo. If such a drastic price drop occurred, commercial activity would flourish in space and going to space would be a common vacation.

Since the colonization of space is such an extraordinarily difficult task, it is more likely to happen gradually than all at once. A breakthrough in propulsion is the first step that will get the ball rolling for colonization. Technology only develops to meet the needs

23 of humans. Once humans expand their presence in space by more frequent trips, the life sustaining systems and protection will improve to allow for humans to have extended stays in the harsh environment of space. Longer and longer missions will eventually lead to the first colony, but none of this can happen without the initial breakthrough in propulsion. In order to review the feasibility of starting a colony in space, it must be assumed that SSTO technology will exist in the near future. This will help to generate more reasonable data for cost and profit estimates.

It is possible that even if the right technology is developed at a reasonable cost for SSTO transport, then it will not be used because of political, diplomatic, or military reasons. It is very important that these be addressed before that technology arises and becomes economically feasible or else the colonization of space will be prolonged even further. Until business and opportunities develop in space, using these new type of spacecraft will not be profitable. Because of these factors, this technology will likely first be implemented on earth and not in space. There is a high demand for this, because it would take less than an hour to travel anywhere on earth. There are an innumerable amount of applications for such rapid transportation. A development of this magnitude would have a monumental impact not only on the commercialization of space but also business on earth. Another benefit of using SSTO vehicles regularly on earth is because this technology is much cleaner than current airplanes due to the time spent outside the atmosphere (Schmidt and Zubrin, 19-25). When these types of ships are fully utilized in space, the costs will likely be low enough that SSTO will be one of the cheapest methods to transport goods on Earth as well as into space.

Propulsion and transportation have always been one of humanity's greatest challenges and triumphs. Many of the great innovations that have allowed humans to evolve and flourish have come in these fields. The development of SSTO technology opens endless possibilities for the human race and would greatly expand the perceivable universe to humans. A breakthrough of that magnitude would certainly be one of the most significant in modern history. The ability to access space frequently with the purpose of improving humanity is the pinnacle of human achievement. For this reason, advances in propulsion are fundamental to prolonged human presence in space.

24 COMMERCIALIZATION

The initial steps of commercializing space would either involve energy or manufactured goods. The profitability and continuous demand for these would ensure a successful space business if the product could be transported to earth. SSTO propulsion would allow for the cheap and regular transportation of the final product and would greatly reduce the costs associated with doing business in space. The commercialization of space is a critical element in the possibility of a space colony, because the only way human activity in space will increase enough is if there is a profit to be made.

Solar power arrays in space are a promising business opportunity and could be one of the first business venues involving energy. They are unique because, similar to satellites, they do not require a colony in space to be possible. Although the mining of Helium-3 would represent an extremely profitable and beneficial source of energy, the labor source and supervision necessary would guarantee that a colony would need to be created to sustain such a long term operation. When studying commercialization as a step in the process towards colonization, opportunities like this should not yet be considered.

With today's transportation costs, solar arrays are not even close to being feasible. At $800/kg to GEO, which is 4 times the LEO launch cost that would be possible with new SSTO propulsion, it would cost only 3.2 cents per Watt to create a solar array in space for power generation. This would mean a cost of 20 cents per kWh to consumers on earth. The current average power price in the United States is about 12 cents so space powered solar arrays would not be cost competitive in most regions. However, solar power is clean and renewable energy so it could be appealing to people especially if the progresses in the future. Also, many parts of earth have a very little electricity because there are no power plants nearby. Power from space would solve this global problem, because it eliminates the need for a local power generation source. Undeveloped regions would only need the electrical infrastructure in order to have electricity at a slightly elevated cost compared to fully industrialized nations. This drastically reduces the investment and labor needed to provide electricity to almost all places people inhabit on earth. This would be a remarkable help to humanity because it would greatly improve living conditions and allow for a much higher quality of medical services and food to be offered in areas of all around the world.

Another use of the power generated in space would be to provide energy for the construction of the first extraterrestrial colony. Power in space going to colonies would be much cheaper because of the shorter distance required during transmission. The large and readily available power sources that could be maintained in space would provide enough power to run multiple colonies which would reduce the frequency of interactions needed between this colony and earth.

With SSTO propulsion in the future, solar arrays in space would not only be economically and technologically feasible, they would be profitable and would provide a great service to humanity. In this case it is possible for commercialization to provide a measurable benefit to earth, which could become reason along for governments to create

25 incentive for corporations to do business in space. If and when there is a revolution in propulsion, many types of businesses will emerge in space shortly after the transportation systems arise and become available at a reasonable cost.

Manufacturing goods in space also has potential to be a very profitable industry. Procedures involving microgravity can lead to unique structures that cannot be produced on earth. There is currently a demand for items to be manufactured in such ways, but the market for these goods will not be fully developed until the costs of transporting the manufactured goods back to earth sharply decreases. Once the launch costs drop to the area where it will become profitable to commercialize space, assuming SSTO capabilities, manufacturing in space will become a dominant industry. In order to turn a profit with today's technology, a corporation would have to manufacture 25 thousand kilograms of final product at a cost of $20,000 per kilo. With future generation propulsion methods, that same company could produce only 2000 kilograms at the same cost or sell the bulk amount of 25 thousand kilos at $1600 per kilo. These results are remarkable, because the assumed rarity and demand for goods made in space is close to that of precious metals. For a price comparison, platinum and gold cost roughly $50 thousand and $35 thousand respectively. Also, platinum is excavated at a rate of 120 thousand kg per year which is only 6% of the gold mined annually. If goods could be manufactured in space at the rate or value of precious metals on earth, then this industry could provide the revenue and incentive to commercialize space without any other business ventures to assist. This could result in a material revolution similar to that of manufacturing aluminum. Once a precious metal, aluminum was manufactured in a different process and it is now very widely used because of its abundance and relatively low cost. With new material structures previously not available on earth, many new technological breakthroughs are possible. The computer and electronics industry would most likely be the greatest benefactor because of the high quality and tolerances needed for metallic components.

Despite the fact that the vacation industry would still not be a profitable or enticing business opportunity, it is worth noting the effect that a lower launch cost would have on the theoretical market. With SSTO at $800 per kilo to LEO, the estimated cost of a week's stay in space would be $100 thousand per person. Studies show that at these prices, an estimated half a million people would be willing to vacation in space each year. From a business standpoint, this is much better than the million dollars per guest each week and only 100 visitors per year. Once commercialization and a possibly colony have been fully implemented, the costs will be reduced and the demand will skyrocket. Although orbital hotels will not lead the charge for commercialization of space, they will become a large industry generations after there is widespread human activity in space.

26 PROTECTION AND SAFETY

One of the greatest possibilities for humans in space is also one of their greatest obstacles. It is the effect that being in space has on the human body and how humans can adapt to different environments. There are several naturally occurring reactions that take place within the human body when it is kept in space for extended periods of time. Although it is unknown if these are the body’s adaptations to space or if space is causing the body to transform, this shows that some configurations of life work better in space. This offers great promise for bioengineering because after these transformations have been studied, scientists could engineer the human body to take on these desirable conditions. The body will need to react to different conditions quickly in order to become better suited for life in space. This research will greatly expand the possible lifetime of humanity as a whole, whether it is by staying on earth or by venturing into space permanently. Although bioengineering may not significantly speed up the race to colonize space, it will most assuredly make that colony possible and be a major factor in its success.

Within bioengineering and medical research in space there are a great deal of possible contributions to the improvement of humanity. First, the limiting factor in space travel now is the amount of time that the human body can survive in space. This is not only because of the issue of life-sustaining resources, but also the harmful effects of the on the body.

Aside from dieting and physical training, only protect themselves from the harmful effects of space while they are actually in space. They could go through a medical regimen before space travel that targeted the undesirable effects and would act as an initial barrier to limit any effects that were able to get by the in-space protection. Also, humans could be treated after they returned home to reduce the amount of harmful effects. Another possible way to protect humans while in space is a biological warning system. If the undesired effects of space are known then it is assumed that there also exists a way to measure them and determine how much the human body can safely withstand. For the example of radiation, something similar to a Geiger counter could be used to warn space travelers when they are nearing danger so that it could be avoided. After much data is gathered from such devices, safe routes through space could be mapped out so that travelers could avoid paths and locations that are substantially more harmful to them.

A key aspect of sustaining human life in space is creating an environment that is sustainable in space for long durations. The main reason why humans thrive on earth is because earth’s environment is very versatile and recycles nutrients and resources so that life can flourish. Photosynthesis and plate tectonics are the two most important contributors to this on earth and similar processes would have to be adapted to a space colony to ensure that life in space could be possible for a long period of time. An effective way to conduct this type of research is to have a group of scientists that live in space to perform experiments in simulated environments. This will tell us more about how biology reacts to a given set of living conditions. Three types of environments that would be especially helpful for testing are ones that models deep outer space, one that is very similar to our environment on earth, and possible conditions that could be created for a human

27 colony in space. The final environment would change slightly as more information is discovered because it would be somewhere in the middle of the other two. This set of conditions is what designers would strive to replicate when establishing a colony in space. The artificial environment would start out very close to the conditions in a space ship and through refinements and iteration would eventually be similar to those on earth.

Before starting a colony, numerous variations would have to be tested so that an optimal set of conditions could be identified. This is a form of evolution, but would have to be sped up so the humans in space would not die out before achieving a successful balance between body and environment.

Terraforming will certainly make the first colony more suited for sustained human life, but there must also be a significant amount of bioengineering to allow for the differences between the new environment in space and that on earth. In order for humans to have a realistic chance of surviving in space, the slow process of evolution must be bypassed. Bioengineering allows humans to expand the possible variations within the species at a much faster rate while also reducing the toll evolution takes on humanity. By exploring the vast biological possibilities, humans can make themselves more adapted to certain environments and situations. Bioengineering research is the key to unlocking the human potential. The testing done in space would be by far the most important because teams of researchers could work together to compromise between designing an environment in space that is favorable to humans, and designing a human that can survive in the space environment. The ability for both engineering feats to be combined will determine the sustainability of a space ecosystem.

Another path that bioengineering in space could take might focus on the origins of life in our solar system. The three ways that this could have happened are that life originated on earth, the foundations of life came to earth from space, or that life itself came from space to earth. In all cases, it took a very long time for the primitive life forms to become intelligent and from advanced . Since the ultimate goal is creating advanced civilizations for intelligent beings in space, then much could be learned from testing environmental parameters to determine which conditions facilitated evolution. A major breakthrough that could arise from these studies is finding a way to engineer evolution. If scientists found out how to create a life form that is sustainable in space environments, then they can vary the conditions to see how evolution takes place and how it can be used to design the desired result. Possibilities are that recycle the waste created by humans and radiation resistant plants that would replenish atmospheres of uninhabitable . Understanding biological adaptation and progression are essential to many breakthroughs that are possible with bioengineering in space.

In recent experiments on rats while in spaceflight, scientists discovered the effects that varying gravity had on bone formation. As is common on long space missions for humans, the rate of bone growth is decreased. This study found that within the first day of returning to earth, these growth rates were elevated by 300%. This presents great promise in the field of bioengineering because manipulation of these effects could negate the detrimental effects of prolonged low gravity exposure for astronauts. Further development

28 could be used to treat bone growth disorders for patients on earth or even improve the human's bone structure to increase athletic performance.

Bioengineering is very important to the future of humanity because of its power to uncover new places in our solar system that are suitable environments for prolonged human life. These high levels of bioengineering could only come after human presence in space is greatly increased and demand for prolonged space exposure prompts further research. All of the research mentioned would teach us an unimaginable amount of new things about the human body, but knowledge itself cannot be the goal of bioengineering in space. The driving factor behind bioengineering must be the goal of making space more suitable for humans and not advancing medicine on earth. Research must be pushed to the limits in order to discover the largest amount of possibilities.

29 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

IMPACT ON SOCIETY

The two most important aspects of colonizing space is how the process that leads up to it will affect humanity and what a colony will mean for the future of humanity. Since the purpose of conquering space is to improve aspects of life on earth and to eventually separate humans from the dependence on earth, than anything that will detract from the quality of life or cause humans danger is a very big problem. The ideal case is that nothing along the line will be a detriment to humans. A colony, or any human activity in space for that matter, can never be considered feasible or sustainable if it causes more harm than help. Despite the fact that this report mostly analyzes the technological and economic steps needed to start a colony, the entire project is meaningless if there are severe adverse effects on humans.

Humans should also pay attention to how their presence in space affects the space environment. The negative effects of industrialization on earth are severely affecting the atmosphere, and a crisis like that must be avoided in space at all costs. Adding or removing large amounts of weight to celestial bodies can have an effect on their orbit which would in turn affect all in the solar system slightly. is almost certainly necessary to create a colony and the full effects of the changes made by humans to the space landscape must be fully understood before any detrimental actions are taken. The consequences of actions in space are much greater because of the preexisting dangers, so any terraforming must be carefully planned and executed perfectly.

Another consideration is the legality of activities in space. Space could well become a haven for criminals or terrorists if the transportation capabilities fell into the wrong hands. Scientific research would be affected as well. In space there are no regulations on stem-cell research or testing on humans and animals, so certain companies might use space for illegal methods of product development and testing. The most important part of regulating the activities in space is ensuring that they do not cause harm to the humans in earth or in space and that space is not used to subvert the laws on earth. Aside from constantly pushing the limits of technology, the only reasons to colonize space if it is not profitable are preservation on improvement of humanity. Even though commercial activity is required on some level to make a colony for humans possible, it cannot have negative effects on space or earth because the purpose would be compromised.

The mentality of humanity will also change slightly once human presence in space increased to the point of colonization. There is no way to predict how humans will feel once they are no longer dependent on earth to survive, but it is highly probable that some animalistic instant would cause some change in humanity’s spirit. Some may feel freer to do and explore what they desire now that the seemingly impossible is a reality. In cases like this, people would have a positive emotional reaction to humanities crowning

30 achievement. However, it is just as likely that people will feel sad because colonizing space symbolizes breaking away from mother earth. Some people may also feel like the uniqueness of earth in our solar system and galaxy is what makes human life meaningful. In these cases, human activity in space would cause negative emotions despite trying to improve the human condition.

Regardless of what happens in space, extraterrestrial activity will have some long terms effects on humanity. At all stages in the colonization process, these effects must be considered so that they do not cause significant harm to humanity. Space is a great realm of possibility, and it is quite possible that the keys to a better future for humanity lie in our solar system. However, there must be a careful distinction made between conquering space for personal benefit and colonizing space to preserve humanity. If the motivation for the future space initiatives is pure, then humanity will greatly benefit from its ability to tame other galactic locations.

31 OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE

Although there is international cooperation on the space station, the majority of research and engineering in the space sector today is done by individual government agencies. The funding for this is usually paid through taxes and has remained about the same over the past decade. An emerging trend is that private corporations have started their own commercial race for space. They rely little on government subsidies and more on a growing source of private investors. In the near future there will be an increasing number of private companies with more money than traditional government agencies and space programs. The direction that these companies take while making decisions about their involvement in space will severely change the future outlook of many facets of life on earth.

This creates a problem for governments, because if private research outpaces governmental research, then world governments may no longer have the best capabilities as far as space exploration. Governments will recognize this before it happens and attempt to team up with one or more of these companies. This would serve to not only ensure that such valuable capabilities do not leave the country they originated in, but also will expedite breakthroughs if more funding and more researchers are available. Since a country in this position will ultimately have final say on companies within its borders, it is better for the two to work together so they can mutually benefit and maximize progress while avoiding a legal battle that might allow someone else to surge ahead in the technology race.

Since private companies are involved with a considerable amount of their investors funding, the activity being pursued in space can be assumed to be profitable in some way. One way this could happen is to bring something from space that has a great value on earth. The most probable things that such a mission would target are resources that could provide earth with energy or very valuable metals from asteroids. Although governments might urge to have the activities in space provide some benefit to humanity, the private corporations would almost exclusively want to pursue the most profitable commercial activity. At this point in time, the private sector will most likely outweigh traditional government in space interests so they would be able to push their own agenda. Therefore, the major efforts to improve space capabilities would be for the purpose of bringing a never before seen amount of resources or energy from space to earth.

If this goal is reached, presumably by one country or group of companies well before others around the world, then the economic world order will be vastly different than it is now. This one country will quickly become the economic world leader and will continue to accumulate resources and wealth until they represent almost all of the global economy. Only a small number of permanent residents in space would be necessary to perform all of these activities because it is safer and less expensive to have robots perform the required labor. All humans in space would be there to better communicate information acquired in space to earth and to make real-time decisions on the best way to continue harvesting the resources. With such a vast supply of high demand resources, this country now can control global markets and will be traded technology and labor from all over the world at low prices. This would be possible because the country can meet or exceed the world’s energy and resource needs. If this happens then the whole world will be

32 dependent on this country to continue the same way of life as before. This would lead to the country becoming more than a superpower and since it would have too much power, it will fall under attack and criticism from rest of world.

To avoid this, the country would need to establish a panel of worldwide diplomats, economic and cultural experts to make global minded decisions regarding space. This is one of the only ways that the superpower can ensure that it is acting in a fair and ethical manner and will not be targeted by those unhappy with the new economic order. One possibility is that the whole world would shift to a global community and distribute these resources and wealth based on newly defined criteria. This would most likely fail however, because people around the world would not want to give up their and heritage for some promise of a better life. To solve this dilemma, the superpower country and its global decisions panel would allow countries to operate the same as before so long as they recognize the authority of the panel and its power to make non-legally binding decisions for the betterment of humanity.

The sole purpose of this panel is to alleviate the superpower country’s government from having to make very important decisions that affect people other than its own citizens. It is some sort of additional branch of affiliated government so that the roles of previous government officials do not have to be redefined. Over time it will probably evolve into a form of benevolent oligarchy that is concerned with making decisions about the global community and how to improve the overall state of the world by proper allocation of energy and resources. Many global organizations like this exist today, but this one would be more widely recognized and its decisions would be more respected. The various ethnicities and expertise’s of the panel members would help to represent as much of the world as possible in the decision making process. If it were possible to guarantee that the members of this panel truly made decisions based on the interest of the world then there would be many great benefits. They could improve quality of life in third world countries by providing energy and resources for infrastructure at very low costs to encourage progress and industrialization. Also they could minimize the impact of natural disasters by creating well organized and more effective humanitarian aid missions. The lasting impact of this however, is that after a while, profits and trading values of these resources will mean less and less to the superpower so decisions can be based off of global wellbeing and not economic benefit. If countries around the world are largely dependent on this superpower nation, and they feel that the nation is acting to help them with no personal agenda, then most of the world will be pleased with the new order and have no reason to dissent. This would mean much less global conflict and the ability to resolve conflicts between nations before they escalated into .

The events leading up to this new order would take place over many decades and several generations so the input of many world leaders would be taken into consideration. There is no way to predetermine the structure of such a panel or how they would go about making decisions, because slight variations or arrangements would greatly affect the final outcome. This vision of the future world is based on our own research and predictions about how the commercialization and growing familiarity with space would affect how the world interacts in the distant future. Changes in the assumptions we have

33 made could make this plan unrealistic, but based on what we know and have learned about these interactions, some form of refined world order will almost definitely come out of the first major commercial mission in space.

The most significant impact of prolonged activity in space will not be fully felt by humans until generations later. Because of this it is important to analyze what the makeup of space and earth will be at that time. Looking at possible scenarios in 100 years will help to see the long term goals of space programs and how these goals will be realized. In the year 2110, private corporations will dominate the space sector which will lead to a worldwide economy that is not controlled by governments. The world will tend more towards laissez-faire because of the increase number of global competitors and continually emerging markets based on activities in space. The first form of a legal system and regulations regarding space will be in place, but are being refined to better suit commercialization. Nearly 1000 people will live in space at this time, which is dwarfed by earth’s rising population of 10 billion inhabitants. A colony on the moon will be flourishing because of the profitability of mining of He3 as an energy source for earth. This settlement will also serve as a better vantage point for more research and observation of space outside our solar system and galaxy.

Although there are roughly 200 colonists on the moon, robots are the best source of labor for outer space. They perform most repetitive tasks and missions that are too dangerous for humans and can be mass produced at relatively low costs. The human interface is very good and communication with robots is easy. This is one of the main reasons why they are so widely utilized and prevalent in everyday life both in space and on earth. Humans still grow their own food and exercise to remain healthy and fight the negative effects of extended exposure to the dangerous conditions of space. Research and testing in space has led to many great breakthroughs in the medical fields. The human body is understood much better and medicine is extremely advanced compared to the start of colonizing space. Stem cell research is very prominent and the tangible benefits finally outweighed the ethical concerns that were preventing its success. Doctors now have cures and vaccines for most illnesses and diseases which led to a worldwide increase in life expectancy.

Technology has kept up with human needs and as the body has become better suited for life in space, breakthroughs in propulsion methods allow humans to go orders of magnitude father away from earth than before. Newly implemented SSTO propulsion systems make travel to space equivalent to today’s cost of flying and revolutionized transportation on earth. The high volume of trips and long lifetime of spacecrafts make this not only possible but also very profitable. Because of this 30% of humans on earth have visited space and its popularity as a vacation destination has greatly increased. Humans have replaced the ISS and constructed a much larger privately owned space station that orbits earth. This includes hotels, business parks, laboratories, and a recreation center and is modeled after a city so it can meet almost any human need while in space. Because it can sustain roughly 10,000 people at a time it will serve as the major base for the largest expeditions and missions that take place in space.

34 One of these missions is the introduction of a second colony in our solar system to be located on Mars. Unmanned reconnaissance expeditions have already occurred and selected possible locations on the to start the settlement and the infrastructure and materials are waiting to be transported from earth. The purpose of this colony would be for mining corporations, scientific research, and also sustainable leisurely human life. The selection process for the humans who will inhabit Mars is very competitive and the demand was much greater than initially expected. This is due to the success of the colony on the moon and also the popularity of vacationing on the space station.

Despite all of the new capabilities, humans still have not left solar system because the high cost and risks have not been justified. Improved observation techniques and the increased number of telescopes and satellites in space allow us to see much more than before, but there is still no contact or proof of alien life forms despite humanity’s constant search. However, planets and celestial bodies have been discovered that appear able to support human life but there are much too far from earth to reach. Even with new propulsion, any living human would die before planet was able to be successfully colonized. Scientists are working on alternate methods of sending humans to distant locations and are considering sending sperm and eggs into space and having robots care for and teach the humans on final part of journey. Human exploration and colonization of these planets is still another 100 years away. This challenge represents the next major goal of humans regarding their prolonged presence in space.

35 CONCLUSION

Our project was chosen because it seeks to use complex science and technology to improve the quality of life on earth. As future engineers in a changing world, it is important to understand the effects our progress has on the future of the human race and the sustainability of our environment. Space has always been a target of human ambition and this project was designed to discover what goals for space are feasible and how humans can sustainably reach them in the future. Utilizing space for its energy, resources, and physical properties is the next step in the advancement of humanity. This will prolong humans’ ability to survive on earth and will give them time to develop space capabilities. The ultimate promise of engineering during this period is to make it a possibility for humans to leave earth and be able to survive somewhere else in the universe. This feat would allow humans to exploit space for their own betterment by expanding out into the cosmos. It is very critical that throughout this entire process the good of humanity as a whole is the prime motivator. Sacrificing the welfare of earth or its people to make quick gains in technology will be much worse in the long run than allowing science to progress at its own rate.

Humans are relatively close to being able to master space considering how difficult of a task it actually is. Despite being vital to human survival and economic possibility, there are only a few remaining obstacles that prevent more extensive human use of space. These major problems are the cost of getting to low earth orbit and the ability of the human body to stay alive in space's harsh environments. Breakthroughs in propulsion technology such as SSTO vehicles are the future catalysts that will allow for the commercialization of space. Only after successful commercialization can a source of profits be established that will ensure future space endeavors are possible. If this happens, all other necessary aspects of technology will be developed so that humans can thrive indefinitely in earth orbit. This will be the turning point that will once again unite humans and rekindle an interest in global space programs. Although the colonization of space is generations away, the impact it will have on humanity should serve as hope and motivation to push human ingenuity to its limits. Humanity will be forever enriched as a direct result of the capability to inhabit somewhere other than earth, and the first space colony is a giant leap in that direction.

36 RECOMMENDATIONS

Our thoughts after our research and experience of the tasks given for this project have let us to believe that we had too broad of a topic. Narrowing down our research would have helped us reach a more specific analysis of the topic. This non-specific analysis led to wasting time and leading us down too many roads of research. We recommend a strong and clear topic of less broad range and then more research and studies could be done to further progress the Inquiry Qualifying Project. Building upon our project should be accessible through our research on bioengineering and propulsion. These topics need a timeframe associated within each and compare present time to fifty years from now. Our estimates that we made during our research could be verified or disproved the assumptions can be applicable to further analysis.

The lasting impact on humanity is very important in the of great scientists and engineers in any time period. Survival of our human species is of top priority as a race but not the first thing individually on our minds. The effect our topic has on the economy is based on commercialization and our first colony’s successes. If Helium-Three is readily available and drives down the cost globally of energy as well as provide to countries with necessary energies. Human society will be greatly affected once a colony is created on the moon and will united countries in a common goal to near global gaps in quality of life. Societies will become more and more similar as energy is spread over earth and should create a more peaceful environment for all to live in. Not saying a utopia will be formed because that is not the purpose of this project but could be a likely possibility in the long term future. Transportation is another ramification to come out of this topic for propulsion will drive launch costs to low levels. Transporting to the moon, to earth orbit or even across two points on earth will be at much lower rates and pushes humanities’ boundaries on space missions and increases the number of possible trips to and from desired locations.

Future IQP groups should look into economic models of the first company to develop sustainable SSTO vehicles. These would compare launch costs of current vehicles sent to various locations to the much lower cost of the SSTO vehicle and give insight to just how much we could do with that buffer of fewer expenses. A layout and blueprint of the first space colony could be mapped out. This would include the mining plans, research possibilities, leisure within the colony as well as the maximum number of people and robots it can hold. The blueprint would need rough estimates of size dimensions of colony and materials necessary for creation. Regulations of trade for space resources are topics that could be researched in more depth in the future. Energy is the most abundant space resource that near future colonists will be able to obtain and standards will have to be set in order for smooth transactions to occur.

37 This field of study is always changing due to rapid increases and advances in technology therefore research and analysis may be out of date for future IQP groups perusing a similar topic. The goal of colonization should be the main focus of future groups and more information will lead to greater discoveries in the upcoming years. These topics and goals are only a minuscule number compared to the near infinite possible ways the world can get closer to colonizing space.

38 WORKS CITED

Bekey, Ivan. Advanced Space System Concepts and Technologies. El Segundo, CA: The Aerospace Press, 2003.

Berinstein, Paula. Making Space Happen. Medford, NJ: Plexus Publishing, Inc., 2002.

Calvin, Melvin and Oleg G. Gazenko, ed. Foundations of Space Biology and Medicine. Vol. 1,3. Washington, D.C: NASA, 1975.

Committee on Planetary Biology and Chemical Evolution. Search for Life's Origins. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1990.

Goodrich, Jonathan N. The Commercialization of Outer Space. New York: Quorum Books, 1989.

Hardersen, Paul S. The Case for Space. Shrewsbury, MA: ATL Press, 1997.

Hargrove, Eugene C, ed. Beyond Spaceship Earth. San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1986.

Humi, Mayer. "Modeling With Ordinary Differential Equations". Lecture notes provided as a digital copy by author. Ch. 1, pp. 44-49. WPI: 2011

Lewis, John S. . New York: Helix Books, 1996.

McElyea, Tim. A Vision of Future Space Transportation. Ontario: Apogee Books, 2003.

Schmidt, Stanley and , ed. Islands in the Sky. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1996.

Schmitt, Harrison H. Return to the Moon. New York: Copernicus Books, 2006.

Shipman, Harry L. Humans in Space. New York: Plenum Press, 1989.

Zimmerman, Robert. Leaving Earth. Washington, D.C.: Joseph Henry Press, 2003.

Zubrin, Robert. Entering Space. New York: Penguin Putnam Inc., 1999.

39 APPENDIX

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 Guests vs. Revenue 12 Figure 2 LEO Launch Cost vs. Revenue 13 Figure 3 Launch Cost Economics 14 Figure 4 Profit vs. Year 15 Figure 5 GEO Launch Cost vs. Power Price 16

40 MATHEMATICAL MODELING

From Humi source "Modeling With Ordinary Differential Equations" :

p. 46

At such a low final velocity, reaching orbit even without a payload is impossible. Analyzing the given equation, there are three ways to improve single stage rocket propulsion so that it can become a feasible technology in the future. This is by using different assumptions about initial values. First, the vehicle can be given an initial velocity to offset the lack of thrust. This would only need to be around half of the final velocity generated by the rocket, because a final velocity of 10.5 km/s is sufficient to propel objects to low earth orbit. The next parameter that could be targeted for improvement is a characteristic of the rocket itself. The nozzle exit velocity of the rocket’s exhaust gasses is represented by u and is assumed to be 3 km/s. This value quantifies the efficiency of the propulsion system (amount of thrust supplied per a given fuel supply) and is the target of propulsion research and development. This value will increase with improving technology and is the main factor why SSTO vehicles have not been successful to date.

The ultimate goal of researchers, however, is to combine a more efficient thruster with a lighter structure. The final assumption made in the equation was that the mass of structure is one tenth the total mass at takeoff. If lighter materials are discovered that can withstand the tremendous stresses, then this number will become a smaller fraction. Whatever weight is saved can be used to carry a payload. In order for SSTO to become feasible, two developments need to be made in technology. The exhaust gasses need to become faster so that the vehicle can achieve the speed needed to lift an object into orbit. Also, the structure of the ship needs to be lighter and more efficient so that there is enough space and allowable weight to carry a significant payload. When these two needs are met, SSTO capabilities will be good enough to substantially increase human presence in space.

41 The theoretical maximum payloads can be calculated for single and multi-stage rockets for optimized cases. This is useful to compare capabilities for current and future technologies. Because there are many applications for earth to orbit vehicles, additional comparisons serve to determine the conditions and mission requirements favor each method of propulsion. For a single stage rocket the following equation can be applied.

p. 48

Lambda (λ) is the mass of the structure over the mass of the fuel plus structure and was assumed to be 0.1 dimensionless. This is equivalent to the previous assumption made about component masses in the non-optimized analysis. In this case however, λ is used to find the variable value of the payload instead of ignoring it. Also, as stated above, the values of u and λ will increase with improved propulsion technology and better fuels, so this theoretical value will increase with different assumed values in the future.

The following equations are used for the same calculation but for an optimized multi-stage rocket. All variables are assumed to be the same values as for single stage, so the comparison only considers the differences due to the addition of stages.

p. 49

42 DATA AND SOURCE EVALUATION

Bekey, Ivan. Advanced Space System Concepts and Technologies. El Segundo, CA: The Aerospace Press, 2003.

This source presents an unbiased numerical interpretation on the pros and cons of current and future space technologies. It also gives us insight into the implications of these technologies and shows us how dependent activities in space are on the monetary cost to send things there. Finally the author does a good job presenting possible applications for these future technologies and offers his own assessments and conclusions on the data presented. The data primarily focuses on the future technologies and circumstances that would lead to a lower launch cost for sending objects from earth to space. These estimates predict that roughly every 10 years the launch cost will drop by an order of magnitude per kilogram. Also, increasing the annual flight/launch rate is shown to have a great impact on lowering costs. Propellants are one of the most constant variables that keep the cost high, but later in the century these will hopefully be avoided once macrostructure elevation to space is implemented. These two factors, increased technology and increased number of visits to space, seem to be directly proportional and have lowered launch cost as a great side effect. These estimates will be very helpful when attempting to determine the feasibility of creating a colony in space as well as provide a rough timeline for when such a feat might be achieved. Based on the numbers given and other predictions, launch costs will no longer be the limiting factor for a space colony after the midpoint of this century. This is a big assumption because even if the current rate of funding and research remain constant, significant breakthroughs have to be made that are far too scientifically complex to assume they are possible. However, if these predictions come true, then space will be hundreds of times more accessible to humans than ever before and the future possibilities would be limitless.

Hardersen, Paul S. The Case for Space. Shrewsbury, MA: ATL Press, 1997.

This source shows the pros and cons of the impact of space on human lives, as well as the social implications of space travel and colonization. It also includes the costs and benefits of both the resources and continued activity in space. One difference from other sources is that it explores the reasoning and deciding factors behind the space program and what moral and governmental issues prevent human activity from flourishing in space. Although this source does contain more opinions than actual data, the data that is presented is accompanied by the background picture and analysis on why the numbers are significant. Many issues preventing increases human presence in space are exposed and information is given on what can be done and why things should be changed. The majority of data and tables in this source are regarding governmental funding for space programs and the associated benefits of these expenditures. While the net funding NASA receives each year has increased, the percentage of US budget it receives has decreased an eventually leveled off. And despite the budget for space being very small

43 compared to many seemingly less important expenses (Post Offices get more than twice as much money per person from the government), the majority of this money spend has transitioned from NASA’s budget to military and defense spending in space. It is also well documented that government spending on space has produced great revenue and created many jobs in nearly every state. In order for many of the estimates and assumptions made in our research to become true, then the government cannot keep limiting spending on space. Until the private sector comes up was an economically feasible plan or can lure enough investors, then the government should feel obligated to expand our possibilities in space. Scientists’ estimates on timeframes for breakthroughs in are essentially meaningless if NASA and private corporations do not have the funding to conduct the research and missions that they are capable of. This is another important issue on when the first colonization of space will take place, because it may never happen if the government is not motivated to strongly encourage this change.

Hargrove, Eugene C, ed. Beyond Spaceship Earth. San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1986.

This work of short articles covers many different aspects of space and what life could be like once humans colonize it. There is a large section on the humanity and social issues of using space for human benefit as well as the philosophical and moral dilemmas when considering space as an environment like earth. Some thoughts are also presented on the technological and political dimensions of space once a colony has been established. This will be very useful when we are analyzing the reasons humans would want to leave earth and permanently settle space. This source has many tables and graphs on the growing impact of objects orbiting in space and how in the future the size, number, and detection ability of these objects will mean numerous collisions in space every year. This brings up the possibility of valuable space debris. If a colony in space is within reach of satellites and other orbiting objects, then it might be possible for the colonists to harvest anything they would need from these collisions and bring it back for use in the colony. Depending on the value of collision debris and the costs of space travel for the colonists, then this could prove to be a cost- effective way to gather a portion of these needed resources. This data is also, important when considering how a space civilization will dispose of its waste products, both human and industrial. Based on the inherent human wastes and the levels of industrialization to sustain a significant colony, the mass of byproducts from this colony will almost guarantee many collisions per year unless waste is buried or sent to far-off uninhabited parts of space. It can also be assumed, however, that a colony would need to inhabit or mine the land so burial of wastes is impossible and launching items for disposal would be too costly to sustain. The data presented in this source only confirms the problem of waste removal from a space civilization. All assumptions made in the book that lead to the estimated number of collisions are based on the tracking and control systems in the 1980s, so assuming this technology

44 has/will increase in the future then this source’s estimate are probably off and space will not be as dangerous for non-living orbiting bodies as stated.

Schmitt, Harrison H. Return to the Moon. New York: Copernicus Books, 2006.

This source offers information on humanity’s legacy in space and the social impact of humans living in space. Unlike other sources, the author strongly relates the feasibility of space colonization to the economic promise offered in space. This is one of the few reasons we have encountered for humans to colonize space without the desire to live there indefinitely. Once the mining is completed on the moon, the settlement would no longer be sustainable for prolonged life. This proposal seems to be mostly a business plan as opposed to a way to propagate humanity into space. Regardless, it is one of the only current and probably feasible plans to establish a population outside of earth. Most of the data presented in this source is on the technical and economic aspects of mining Helium-3 on the moon and using it as a power source for earth. Despite the high initial investment required compared to coal, Helium-3 appears to be much more profitable in the long term and is far more sustainable and environmentally friendly. The reason why this has not already been implemented is because there needs to be a better idea of the feasibility of this lunar operation. The financial estimates given are based on three big assumptions that could change the numbers drastically for the economic feasibility of mining the moon. First, Helium-3 fusion has never been demonstrated on even a scaled down version of what would be needed to net returns. This does not mean that the technology needs to improve; it means that scientists are unsure if even a small demonstration of this type of fusion is even possible. Such a demonstration is the main obstacle that this energy source faces for implementation in the future. Secondly, all estimates regarding Helium-3 on the moon including its mass, concentration, location and ease of extraction, are scientists’ best guesses from limited surveying and topographic studies. If Helium-3 is not as abundant on the moon as expected or is in a harder to reach location, then it might be more practical to mine another possibly more distant source. Finally, there are expected losses and unforeseeable maintenance costs inherent when doing any activity in space especially over multiple decades as planned. These were not considered in the calculations, but would be a significant concern to investors if the expected profit margin were updated to reflect more conservative estimates. If all of these assumptions were found to be true at some point in the future, then a private corporation would certainly make a return to the moon. This would be a major step in starting the first space settlement because there would finally be an economic incentive to sustain life off of earth. Along with lowering launch costs, a business opportunity like this is likely a necessary step before people will colonize space.

45 Shipman, Harry L. Humans in Space. New York: Plenum Press, 1989.

This source is very good for learning about the social aspect and human intrigue of going into space. It has a significant amount of data on what is needed for survival in space and presents it in unbiased form to allow us to decide which factors are conducive to life in space and which need to be addressed before the first colony is possible. The author also includes the resources that are presumed to be common in space and how they can be used to aid life in space, which is one of the major obstacles humans still face. Finally the book concludes with possible uses and opportunities for space with and without humans in the future. One table predicts possible of humans in space based on the uses of available resources and the degree of industrialization in space. From this we can conclude that in order for a space settlement to be viable, then humans need to make use of resources available in space and there needs to be some form of commercial activity in space. If neither of these are true, then space will mostly be used for scientific purposes like it is today. This is a great starting point for research because if we want a space civilization to be possible then we need to discover what is preventing the two factors discussed above from being a reality. Another data set in this source gives the approximate weights of the bodily inputs and outputs of the average living adult. This is very valuable to know when considering living in space because estimates can be made on how long humans would be able to sustain life with a given amount of theses needed resources. From the data we also see that the amount humans release/excrete is only about a pound less per day that what they intake, so removal of these wastes will also be an issue over time in a group of people. Since the weight of these needed resources and inherent wastes is a very significant cost with current launch prices, any humans who wish to live in space will need to have a fail- safe way to acquire and remove them respectively. Continuing on the needed resources for sustained life, several estimates are given on the costs needed to bring all required resources from earth for a space crew of 6 for one year. From this data we can conclude that even by predictions made for 2100, it is not economically feasible based on current launch cost estimates. These assumptions, however, leave out the probability that launch costs will be cut by orders of magnitude in 100 years. If we now assume that these launch costs follow more accepted predictions for future technology, then the cost nears a quarter of a million dollars per person per year for just the required life-sustaining resources. This is still a high number if trying to sustain a small independent colony, but is very reasonable for a government-funded mission compared to today’s costs.

46 Zubrin, Robert. Entering Space. New York: Penguin Putnam Inc., 1999.

This source is one of the best we found for providing information about what is needed to send humans into space. It offers a comprehensive review of many social and technical challenges that must be faced before humans can inhabit space. Various life- sustaining and propulsion requirements are proposed and analyzed for three stages of human existence in space. These are prolonged human stays in space, colonization of our solar system, and eventual expansion out into our galaxy assuming successful steps before it. This will be a very valuable source to compare and improve upon estimates for timeframe and feasibility of an initial space colony and will give us hints of what factors will make it a success or failure. Some of the data provided in this source quantifies different types of space transportation such as solar sails and hopping. Despite the promise shown in solar sails, the required parameters to make these propulsion methods effective are on the very outer limits of their theoretical design. The possibility to use orbits and gravity to slingshot vehicles around other objects in space is only really viable around near-by black holes and neutron and the danger of these are still unknown. These two methods are still too far off from becoming a reality to discuss for near future missions or launches. Another set of tables show various costs and burdens associated with a two and a half year manned mission to mars. The estimated cost is not unreasonable compared to other space missions but assumes current launch costs what are expected to be much lower when this mission would become a feasibility so the actual cost might be a significant amount lower. This would make it an extremely cost beneficial mission even if it were purely scientific. Estimated for the amount of consumable requirements for the human crew, on the other hand, were unusually low compared to other sources’ data. This is most likely based on the assumptions that a large portion of these goods and resources can be recycled. This factor might raise the cost previously predicted for the mission and make it less cost effective. One of the possible colony locations described are the of . Most of these moons would be unsuitable life because of their small size and makeup or because of the extremely high levels of radiation from Jupiter. , however, is Jupiter’s second largest moon and is far enough away from the planet so it does not orbit in a radiation belt but close enough that it is somewhat protected. This appears to be one of the better places in our solar system to start a colony based on several factors outlined in this source.

47