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Border Climate Summary Resumen Del Clima De La Frontera Issued: January 15, 2009 an Overview of Hurricane Norbert Landfall in Baja California by Luis M

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Border Climate Summary Resumen Del Clima De La Frontera Issued: January 15, 2009 an Overview of Hurricane Norbert Landfall in Baja California by Luis M Border Climate Summary Resumen del Clima de la Frontera Issued: January 15, 2009 An overview of Hurricane Norbert landfall in Baja California By Luis M. Farfán, CICESE, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico Sixteen tropical cyclones developed in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the season of 2008. Seven of them reached hurricane strength with maximum wind speeds that exceeded 120 kilometer per hour, or 75 miles per hour, lashing coastal areas and causing significant flooding. Three of these systems made landfall in northwestern Mexico (Figure 1), prompting the mobilization of an emergency coordination and planning protocol established by the Mexican government that taps the expertise of state officials, military personnel, and scientists to help ensure public safety. Figure 1. Tracks of Tropical Storm Julio (August 23–26, 2008 in blue), Tropical Storm Lowell Tropical Storm Julio developed in (September 5–11, 2008 in red) and Hurricane Norbert (October 3–12, 2008 in green). August, and Tropical Storm Lowell made landfall on the Baja California During the active season, May through a cyclone is approaching, and Comisión peninsula and the mainland in mid- November, this system is applied during Nacional del Agua (CNA), through Ser- September. Norbert, which made land- the occurrence of cyclones over the At- vicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), fall in mid-October, was the most in- lantic and Pacific oceans. Because Baja is responsible for monitoring weather tense hurricane of the season. Persistent California has a coastal length covering conditions, providing track forecasts, strong winds and heavy rainfall tore off one-third of the total coast of Mexico, and defining zones of coastal impact. roofs, felled trees, and caused significant this area receives special attention. These updates are released to the public damage to infrastructure in the state every six hours and, upon landfall, every of Baja California Sur, home to the La State council three hours. Paz campus of Centro de Investigación According to the SIAT, when a develop- Científica y de Educación Superior de ing tropical cyclone presents a danger to Municipal council Ensenada (CICESE). By the next day, the population in Mexico, early warning Baja California Sur provides a good Norbert had moved over the mainland, coordination is activated. This requires example of the emergency preparedness causing major flooding in Sinaloa, So- both state and municipal councils to process and shows the coordination nora, and Chihuahua. coordinate emergency preparedness between scientists and decision-makers and response in each of the potentially through CICESE’s representation in the To help protect life and property, affected states. Government representa- state. Because the municipality of La the Mexican government created the tives, military personnel, and academic Paz contains 43 percent of the popula- Sistema de Alerta Temprana (SIAT, institutions participate in coordination tion in Baja California Sur and covers http://www.proteccioncivil.gob.mx/ meetings in the state capitals. 30 percent of the state’s area, it is an upLoad/Editorial/252/SIAT_CT.pdf) in important spot to protect during emer- 2000 as an operational tool to monitor In Baja California Sur, for example, sev- gencies. As in the state meetings, CNA the development of tropical cyclones. eral emergency plans are activated when continued on page 3 The information in this packet is available on the web: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts.html 2 | Executive Summary Disclaimer–This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. Executive Summary While we make every effort to verify this informa- tion, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. In General – Tropical storms brought floods and very high precipitation to parts CLIMAS disclaims any and all warranties, whether of Baja California, Sonora, and Sinaloa during the autumn. Much of the rest of the expressed or implied, including (without limita- autumn was dry in the western part of the border region. Forecasts project a very tion) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will dry winter in northern Mexico, and increased chances of below-average precipita- CLIMAS or The University of Arizona be liable to tion for the U.S. border states. you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or Temperature – September–November seasonal temperatures were 1-2 degrees Cel- misuse of this data. sius above average for all of Baja California, California, western Arizona and north- ern Sonora. The rest of the border region had average to below-average temperatures. Precipitation – September through November accumulated precipitation in the border region was mostly average to below-average, except for the southern parts of Table of Contents: Sonora, northern Sinaloa, southeastern Chihuahua and Baja California Sur. Tropi- cal cyclones caused much of the above-average autumn precipitation in Baja Cali- 1 An overview of Hurricane Norbert fornia Sur, Sinaloa, and southern Sonora. landfall in Baja California Precipitation Forecast – Forecasts predict below-average winter precipitation in the Recent Conditions border region. 4 Temperature 5 Precipitation ENSO – Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures are expected to transition from 6 Standardized Precipitation Index 7 neutral to La Niña status during the winter and spring of 2009. La Niña usually North American Drought Monitor brings below average precipitation to the border region. Forecasts 8 Temperature Outlook 9 Precipitation Outlook 10 ENSO INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF PLANET EARTH Staff: Michael Barnes, NOAA Graduate Fellow Tereza Cavazos, CICESE Research Scientist Rolando Diaz, UA Graduate Research Assistant Stephanie Doster, ISPE Associate Editor Luis Farfan, CICESE Research Scientist Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach David Gochis, NCAR Research Scientist Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor Funding for the Border Climate Summary/Resumen del Clima de la Frontera was provided by Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) and the NOAA Sector Andrea Ray, NOAA Research Scientist Applications Research Program. Kate Sammler, UA graduate research assistant Border Climate Summary 3 | Articles Hurricane Norbert, continued Figure 2. Satellite image and meeting participants during the La Paz municipal council meeting, October 10, 2008. Credit: Luis Farfán, CICESE provides information to municipalities ticipated scenarios prior to and during uncertainties associated with forecast about the event’s present and projected landfall, including estimates of strike products—to the La Paz municipal future conditions, as well as its impact time and changes in weather condi- council. Previously, CICESE participat- on the population. This includes the tions. This material provided an integral ed in meetings associated with the ap- storm center location and distance from analysis of Norbert’s behavior during its proach of Hurricanes Lane (2006) and landmarks, as well as estimates of ac- approach and passage over Baja Cali- Ivo (2007) and Tropical Storm Juliette cumulated precipitation and maximum fornia, and it was one element, used (2007). Fortunately, none of these cases winds from the regional network of by emergency managers, to determine moved across the peninsula, although weather stations. evacuation areas. For example, emergen- periods of heavy rain occurred over lo- cy managers in the southern peninsula calized areas along the mountain ranges. By request of this municipal council, used the information about Hurricane CICESE presented a meteorological Norbert’s high wind speeds to evacuate For the upcoming season of 2009, CI- perspective associated with the struc- residents who live in houses made of CESE will be supporting the operational ture, intensity, and motion of Hur- wood and sheet metal. analysis and prediction of tropical cy- ricane Norbert. This consisted of clones that approach northwestern Mex- high-resolution satellite imagery used This was the fourth time during the ico and continuing to provide contribu- to explain the spatial and temporal pat- last three years that CICESE provided tions to protect lives and infrastructure. terns of cloudiness (Figure 2). SMN support—this is, the application of forecasts were used to define a set of an- real-time observations and analysis of Border Climate Summary 4 | Recent Conditions Temperature November temperatures for most of southern Baja California and the west coast of mainland Mexico were between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius (Figure 1a) and were 1–3 degrees C above average for the southwestern United States, Baja California, and Sonora (Figure 1b). The rest of northwestern Mexico had average temperatures for the month. The September– November seasonal temperatures were 1–2 degrees above av- erage for all of Baja California and California (Figures 1c and 1d). Warmer-than-average temperatures across the western part of the border region were due to a pattern of persistent high pressure over western North America. The high pressure pattern did not dissipate until mid to late December. Fall Notes: temperatures were 1–2 degrees C below average for the east- Maps of recent temperature conditions were produced by the Na- tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate
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