Multiscale Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Kinematic Structure from Airborne Doppler Radar Composites
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Understanding the Unusual Looping Track of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Its Forecast Errors
JUNE 2019 M I L L E R A N D Z H A N G 2231 Understanding the Unusual Looping Track of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Its Forecast Errors WILLIAM MILLER AND DA-LIN ZHANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland (Manuscript received 19 September 2018, in final form 5 February 2019) ABSTRACT Hurricane Joaquin (2015) took a climatologically unusual track southwestward into the Bahamas before recurving sharply out to sea. Several operational forecast models, including the National Centers for Envi- ronmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), struggled to maintain the southwest motion in their early cycles and instead forecast the storm to turn west and then northwest, striking the U.S. coast. Early cycle GFS track errors are diagnosed using a tropical cyclone (TC) motion error budget equation and found to result from the model 1) not maintaining a sufficiently strong mid- to upper-level ridge northwest of Joaquin, and 2) generating a shallow vortex that did not interact strongly with upper-level northeasterly steering winds. High-resolution model simulations are used to test the sensitivity of Joaquin’s track forecast to both error sources. A control (CTL) simulation, initialized with an analysis generated from cycled hybrid data assimi- lation, successfully reproduces Joaquin’s observed rapid intensification and southwestward-looping track. A comparison of CTL with sensitivity runs from perturbed analyses confirms that a sufficiently strong mid- to upper-level ridge northwest of Joaquin and a vortex deep enough to interact with northeasterly flows asso- ciated with this ridge are both necessary for steering Joaquin southwestward. -
Evaluation of Doppler Radar Data for Assessing Depth-Area Reduction Factors for the Arid Region of San Bernardino County
Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2019, 11, 217-232 http://www.scirp.org/journal/jwarp ISSN Online: 1945-3108 ISSN Print: 1945-3094 Evaluation of Doppler Radar Data for Assessing Depth-Area Reduction Factors for the Arid Region of San Bernardino County Theodore V. Hromadka II1, Rene A. Perez2, Prasada Rao3*, Kenneth C. Eke4, Hany F. Peters4, Col Howard D. McInvale1 1Department of Mathematical Sciences, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY, USA 2Hromadka & Associates, Rancho Santa Margarita, CA, USA 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, California State University, Fullerton, CA, USA 4Flood Control Planning/Water Resources Division, San Bernardino County Department of Public Works, San Bernardino, CA, USA How to cite this paper: Hromadka II, T.V., Abstract Perez, R.A., Rao, P., Eke, K.C., Peters, H.F. and McInvale, C.H.D. (2019) Evaluation of The Doppler Radar derived rainfall data for over 150 candidate storms during Doppler Radar Data for Assessing Depth- 1997-2015 period, for the County of San Bernardino, California, was assessed. Area Reduction Factors for the Arid Region Eleven most significant storms were identified for detailed analysis. For these of San Bernardino County. Journal of Wa- ter Resource and Protection, 11, 217-232. significant storms, Depth-Area Reduction Factors (“DARF”) curves were de- https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2019.112013 veloped and compared with the published curves developed and adapted by several flood control agencies for this study area. More rainfall data need to Received: January 4, 2019 Accepted: February 25, 2019 be pursued and analyzed before any correlation hypothesis is proposed. -
Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
Baja Greenhouse Production Takes Big Hit from Hurricane
- Advertisement - Baja greenhouse production takes big hit from hurricane September 22, 2014 Greenhouses on Mexico's Baja peninsula endured enormous damage from the winds of Hurricane Odile, which delivered its strongest punch Sept. 16 on the southern part of the peninsula. Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, located in Nogales, AZ, indicated Sept. 19 that the hurricane "hit southern Baja pretty hard. Reports are still coming in, but the first reports are of 100 percent loss" of the region's produce greenhouses and their crops. Lance Jungmeyer"We may find that not all the crops were lost," Jungmeyer said, adding that the question remained as to what part of these crops might make it to market. "A lot of the roads were washed out" in Baja. 1 / 2 In the key Mexican production states of Sonora and Sinaloa, there was "minor" crop damage and the rainfall was beneficial in replenishing reservoirs. "It's a positive because when you grow in the desert, you need all the water you can get," said Jungmeyer. "Overall, even if Baja loses tomatoes and peppers, Sinaloa and Sonora will pick up the slack" to serve demand. "There will not be supplies like you would normal have but it's not dire unless you were growing in Baja." Jungmeyer said it was wind damage more than rain that devastated Baja. "The wind tore down structures and the plants were ripped to shreds. But maybe some can be salvaged. It was the winds that were really concerning." Initial news reports indicated Baja's winds were 100 miles per hour. -
UA Outputs: SARP Projects Resulting from Funds
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323153373 Resulting from funds leveraged from MOVING FORWARD Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change, Drought, and Water Demand in the Urbanizing Southwestern United States and Northern... Technical Report · January 2007 CITATIONS READS 0 31 1 author: Robert Varady The University of Arizona 235 PUBLICATIONS 1,974 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Environmental Change Assessments - Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability - Vol. 21 View project International Water Security Network View project All content following this page was uploaded by Robert Varady on 13 February 2018. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. UA Outputs: SARP Projects LIST OF OUTPUTS Resulting from funds leveraged from MOVING FORWARD Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change, Drought, and Water Demand in the Urbanizing Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Sector Applications Research Program NOAA/SARP Award # NA08OAR4310704 (2008-2010) And INFORMATION FLOWS AND POLICY Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research Small Grants Program for the Human Dimensions IAI Project # SGP HD 005 (2007-2009) University of Arizona (UA) February 2011 Robert Varady, PI -
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories. -
Border Climate Summary Resumen Del Clima De La Frontera Issued: January 15, 2009 an Overview of Hurricane Norbert Landfall in Baja California by Luis M
Border Climate Summary Resumen del Clima de la Frontera Issued: January 15, 2009 An overview of Hurricane Norbert landfall in Baja California By Luis M. Farfán, CICESE, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico Sixteen tropical cyclones developed in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the season of 2008. Seven of them reached hurricane strength with maximum wind speeds that exceeded 120 kilometer per hour, or 75 miles per hour, lashing coastal areas and causing significant flooding. Three of these systems made landfall in northwestern Mexico (Figure 1), prompting the mobilization of an emergency coordination and planning protocol established by the Mexican government that taps the expertise of state officials, military personnel, and scientists to help ensure public safety. Figure 1. Tracks of Tropical Storm Julio (August 23–26, 2008 in blue), Tropical Storm Lowell Tropical Storm Julio developed in (September 5–11, 2008 in red) and Hurricane Norbert (October 3–12, 2008 in green). August, and Tropical Storm Lowell made landfall on the Baja California During the active season, May through a cyclone is approaching, and Comisión peninsula and the mainland in mid- November, this system is applied during Nacional del Agua (CNA), through Ser- September. Norbert, which made land- the occurrence of cyclones over the At- vicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), fall in mid-October, was the most in- lantic and Pacific oceans. Because Baja is responsible for monitoring weather tense hurricane of the season. Persistent California has a coastal length covering conditions, providing track forecasts, strong winds and heavy rainfall tore off one-third of the total coast of Mexico, and defining zones of coastal impact. -
2008 Tropical Cyclone Review Summarises Last Year’S Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Impact of the More Significant Cyclones After Landfall
2008 Tropical Cyclone 09 Review TWO THOUSAND NINE Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN 2 Verification of 2008 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts 3 Tropical Cyclones Making US Landfall in 2008 4 Significant North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in 2008 5 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009 15 NORTHWEST PACIFIC 17 Verification of 2008 Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts 19 Significant Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones in 2008 20 Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009 24 NORTHEAST PACIFIC 25 Significant Northeast Pacific Tropical Cyclones in 2008 26 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN 28 Significant North Indian Tropical Cyclones in 2008 28 AUSTRALIAN BASIN 30 Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009/2010 31 Glossary of terms 32 FOR FURTHER DETAILS, PLEASE CONTACT [email protected], OR GO TO OUR CAT CENTRAL WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.GUYCARP.COM/PORTAL/EXTRANET/INSIGHTS/CATCENTRAL.HTML Tropical Cyclone Report 2008 Guy Carpenter ■ 1 Executive Summary The 2008 Tropical Cyclone Review summarises last year’s global tropical cyclone activity and the impact of the more significant cyclones after landfall. Tropical 1 cyclone activity is reviewed by oceanic basin, covering those that developed in the North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific, North Indian Ocean and Australia. This report includes estimates of the economic and insured losses sus- tained from each cyclone (where possible). Predictions of tropical cyclone activity for the 2009 season are given per oceanic basin when permitted by available data. In the North Atlantic, 16 tropical storms formed during the 2008 season, compared to the 1950 to 2007 average of 9.7,1 an increase of 65 percent. -
Tropical Storm Norbert Weaker, but Still Lashing Mexico Coast 7 September 2014
Tropical storm Norbert weaker, but still lashing Mexico coast 7 September 2014 southwest Baja California, pumps were draining flood waters after the storm destroyed levees protecting the community of 7,000 people. Local official Venustiano Perez had said Saturday night there were "more than 2,500 people homeless" and another 1,500 whose homes were damaged in the storm. Authorities in Baja California Sur said conditions had returned to normal in the state, but said they were maintaining surveillance in the northern part of the state and assessing a final damage tally. On Saturday, some 2,000 people were evacuated to shelters, which were then cut off by landslides This NASA satellite image shows Hurricane Norbert over and power outages. Baja, Callifornia on September 6, 2014 Last year, Mexico was simultaneously struck by a pair of hurricanes, Ingrid and Manuel, on both coasts, killing 157 people, destroying bridges and Tropical storm Norbert weakened quickly over cool burying most of a mountain village in the Pacific waters in the Pacific Ocean, forecasters said coast state of Guerrero. Sunday, after the storm left some 2,500 people homeless in Mexico. © 2014 AFP The storm had surged to a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale but by Sunday had lost much of its punch and was downgraded to a tropical storm, packing top sustained winds of 60 miles (95 kilometers) per hour, said the US National Hurricane Center. Norbert was expected to mostly dissipate by Monday morning, the Miami-based center said. Nevertheless, "very heavy winds were expected on the west coast of Baja California Sur," in northwestern Mexico, "and there was potential of heavy rains in (neighboring states) Baja California and Sonora," Mexico's national weather service said. -
Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
2110 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting LYNN K. SHAY AND JODI K. BREWSTER Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 7 August 2009, in final form 8 January 2010) ABSTRACT Recent evidence supports the premise that the subsurface ocean structure plays an important role in modulating air–sea fluxes during hurricane passage, which in turn, affects intensity change. Given the gen- erally sparse in situ data, it has been difficult to provide region-to-basin-wide estimates of isotherm depths and upper-ocean heat content (OHC). In this broader context, satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) from multiple platforms carrying radar altimeters are blended, objectively analyzed, and combined with a hurricane-season climatology to estimate isotherm depths and OHC within the context of a reduced gravity model at 0.258 spatial intervals in the eastern Pacific Ocean where tropical cyclone intensity change occurs. Measurements from the Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate in 2001, long-term tropical ocean atmo- sphere mooring network, and volunteer observing ship deploying expendable bathythermograph (XBT) profilers are used to carefully evaluate satellite-based measurements of upper-ocean variability. Regression statistics reveal small biases with slopes of 0.8–0.9 between the subsurface measurements compared with iso- therm depths (208 and 268C), and OHC fields derived from objectively analyzed SSHA field. Root-mean-square differences in OHC range between 10 and 15 kJ cm22 or roughly 10%–15% of the mean signals. -
La Cuenca Del Río Conchos: Una Mirada Desde Las Ciencias Ante El Cambio
Durante las últimas décadas, diversos estudios han analizado la problemática de los potenciales efectos LA CUENCA DEL RÍO CONCHOS: del cambio climático en zonas de estrés hídrico tal como se observan ya en la zona norte del país, en UNA MIRADA DESDE LAS CIENCIAS particular en la cuenca del Río Conchos. ANTE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Sin embargo, poco se ha discutido sobre los cambios ya registrados en el clima actual y su influencia en los aspectos socio-ambientales de una región determinada. En este sentido, la presente obra analiza varios de los aspectos climáticos y su relación con el medio ambiente y la sociedad, a través de diferentes técnicas numéricas y canales de información, para una mejor comprensión de las implicaciones del cambio climático y su inherente factor multidisciplinario. Martín José Montero Martínez Óscar Fidencio Ibáñez Hernández Coordinadores LA CUENCA DEL RÍO CONCHOS: UNA MIRADA DESDE LAS CIENCIAS ANTE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO LA CUENCA DEL RÍO CONCHOS: LA CUENCA DEL RÍO CONCHOS: UNA MIRADA DESDE LAS CIENCIAS ANTE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Martín José Montero Martínez Oscar Fidencio Ibáñez Hernández Coordinadores México, 2017 553.7 Montero, Martín (coordinador) M44 La cuenca del río Conchos: una mirada desde las ciencias ante el cambio climático / Martín José Montero Martínez y Oscar Fidencio Ibáñez Hernández, coordinadores. -- Jiutepec, Mor. : Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, ©2017. 267 p. ISBN 978-607-9368-89-0 (versión impresa). ISBN 978-607-9368-90-0 (versión digital). 1. Cuencas 2. Cambio climático 3. Río Conchos Coordinación editorial: Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, México. Primera edición: 2017 Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua Paseo Cuauhnáhuac 8532 62550 Progreso, Jiutepec, Morelos MÉXICO www.imta.gob.mx Se permite su reproducción parcial o total, por cualquier medio, mecánico, electrónico, de fotocopias, térmico u otros, sin permiso de los editores, siempre y cuando se mencione la fuente. -
Clouds in Tropical Cyclones
VOLUME 138 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW FEBRUARY 2010 REVIEW Clouds in Tropical Cyclones ROBERT A. HOUZE JR. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 3 March 2009, in final form 24 June 2009) ABSTRACT Clouds within the inner regions of tropical cyclones are unlike those anywhere else in the atmosphere. Convective clouds contributing to cyclogenesis have rotational and deep intense updrafts but tend to have relatively weak downdrafts. Within the eyes of mature tropical cyclones, stratus clouds top a boundary layer capped by subsidence. An outward-sloping eyewall cloud is controlled by adjustment of the vortex toward gradient-wind balance, which is maintained by a slantwise current transporting boundary layer air upward in a nearly conditionally symmetric neutral state. This balance is intermittently upset by buoyancy arising from high-moist-static-energy air entering the base of the eyewall because of the radial influx of low-level air from the far environment, supergradient wind in the eyewall zone, and/or small-scale intense subvortices. The latter contain strong, erect updrafts. Graupel particles and large raindrops produced in the eyewall fall out relatively quickly while ice splinters left aloft surround the eyewall, and aggregates are advected radially outward and azimuthally up to 1.5 times around the cyclone before melting and falling as stratiform precipitation. Elec- trification of the eyewall cloud is controlled by its outward-sloping circulation. Outside the eyewall, a quasi- stationary principal rainband contains convective cells with overturning updrafts and two types of downdrafts, including a deep downdraft on the band’s inner edge. Transient secondary rainbands exhibit propagation characteristics of vortex Rossby waves.