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City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report

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City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report Prepared by Aquarium of the Pacific December 2015 City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report Prepared by: The Aquarium of the Pacific December 2015 Authors: Jerry Schubel, Ph.D.1 Jennifer A. Lentz, Ph.D.1 Fahria Qader1 Amy Kishaba1 David Bader1 Lori Perkins1 Emily Yam1 Andrew Kaneda1 Linda Brown1 Brianna R. Pagan2 Jeremy S. Pal2 Chengyu Gao2 Joseph Reichenberger2 Donald R. Kendall2 Moetasim Ashfaq3 Deeksha Rastogi3 Shih-Chieh Kao3 Bibi Naz3 Doug Otto4 Affiliations: 1 Aquarium of the Pacific 2 Loyola Marymount University Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science 3 Oak Ridge National Laboratory Climate Change Science Institute 4 President of Long Beach City College’s Board of Trustees Acknowledgements The Aquarium of the Pacific’s Climate Resilience project team would like to acknowledge the following people for their help with this report: Alex Hall, Ph.D. UCLA Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Alex Norman, Ph.D. and William J. Crampon Re-Thinking Long Beach Alyssa Edwards Florida International University Elizabeth Rhoades, Ph.D. Climate Change Liaison at LA County Department of Public Health, Environmental Health Division Garry Griggs, Ph.D. Director of UCSC’s Institute of Marine Sciences and Distinguished Professor of Earth Sciences Kevin R. Durkee Senior Meteorologist at South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) Jonathan Parfrey Executive Director of Climate Resolve, and founder of LARC Juliette Hart, Ph.D., Phyllis Grifman, Ph.D. and the rest of the AdaptLA and the USC Sea Grant team Kathy Parsons Matthew Lyons Long Beach Department of Water Patrick Barnard, Ph.D. USGS Scientist and creator of the CoSMoS 1-3 coastal flooding models Reinhard Flick, Ph.D. and Timu Gallien, Ph.D. Scripps Institute of Oceanography We have benefitted from discussions with a large number of people in preparing this report. Because of the number and the deadline for completing the report, we have not been able to go back to them to have them review the final report. Recommended citation: AOP (2015) City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report. Prepared by the Aquarium of the Pacific (AOP), for the City of Long Beach, California: 88p. City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 1 Part 1: Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3 Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Characteristics of a Climate Resilient City .......................................................................................... 3 The Four Dimensions of Community Resilience.................................................................... 3 Three Keys to Creating Resilient Coastal Cities..................................................................... 4 The Primary Threats of Climate Change to Long Beach ................................................................... 4 Part 2: Assessment at the Local Level........................................................................................ 7 Drought .................................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Impacts .................................................................................................................... 7 Impacts on Long Beach .......................................................................................................... 8 Plans and Efforts Currently Underway ................................................................................... 9 Additional Approaches to Consider ........................................................................................ 9 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 10 Extreme Heat ........................................................................................................................................ 12 Regional Impacts .................................................................................................................. 12 Impacts on Long Beach ........................................................................................................ 14 Plans and Efforts Currently Underway ................................................................................. 14 Additional Approaches to Consider ...................................................................................... 15 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 16 Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding .................................................................................................. 17 Coastal Hazard Modeling ..................................................................................................... 19 Regional Impacts .................................................................................................................. 21 Impacts on Long Beach ........................................................................................................ 21 Plans and Efforts Currently Underway ................................................................................. 28 Additional Approaches to Consider ...................................................................................... 32 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 33 Deteriorating Air Quality .................................................................................................................... 34 Regional Impacts .................................................................................................................. 34 Impacts on Long Beach ........................................................................................................ 37 Plans and Efforts Currently Underway ................................................................................. 44 Additional Approaches to Consider ...................................................................................... 45 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 46 Public Health and Social Vulnerability .............................................................................................. 47 Regional Impacts .................................................................................................................. 49 Impacts on Long Beach ........................................................................................................ 50 Plans and Efforts Currently Underway ................................................................................. 55 Additional Approaches to Consider ...................................................................................... 57 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 57 Table of Contents i City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report Part 3: Building Climate Resilient Communities .................................................................... 59 Setting the Stage ................................................................................................................................... 59 Engaging the Full Fabric of the Long Beach Community ................................................................ 60 Empowering the Grass Tops to Connect to Grassroots .................................................................... 61 A Broader Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 62 Part 4: Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................................... 63 Threats to Long Beach Summary ....................................................................................................... 63 Summary of Plans and Efforts Currently Underway ....................................................................... 64 Summary of Additional Approaches to Consider.............................................................................. 65 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................... 66 Works Cited ................................................................................................................................. 67 List of Appendices ....................................................................................................................... 81 Table of Contents ii City of Long Beach Climate Resiliency Assessment Report Executive Summary When responding to climate change, there have been many approaches proposed, tested, and reviewed. The options are many. This report outlines the approaches
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