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Southwest Climate Outlook

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Southwest Climate Outlook Issued: October 23, 2008 Southwest Climate Outlook In this issue... WYIR page 3 The 2008 Water Year in Review of- fers a summary of the information presented in each month’s outlook during the 2008 water year. This review provides an overview of pre- cipitation, temperature, reservoir levels, drought, wildfire, and El Niño conditions... NM Reservoirs page 16 Source: Zack Guido New Mexico total reservoir storage Photo Description: Caltocumulus clouds in a mackerel pattern, which forebode rain, over declined slightly during Septem- Baboquivari Peak Wilderness in Southern Arizona. This photo was taken in February 2008. ber. During the last month only Elephant Butte, Brantley, and Santa Rosa reservoirs showed increases. Despite declines, Heron and Na- vajo reservoirs are above 75 percent Would you like to have your favorite photograph featured on the cover of the of capacity... Southwest Climate Outlook? For consideration send a photo representing South- west climate and a detailed caption to: [email protected] Precip. Outlook page 18 The NOAA Climate Prediction Center long-lead precipitation fore- casts for the Southwest show slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico during the fall and early winter. Forecasters expect the atmo- spheric and ocean situation... The information in this packet is available on the web: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swoutlook.html 2 | Climate Summary October Climate Summary Drought – Summer monsoon thunderstorm activity through late August helped Disclaimer - This packet contains official and improve short-term drought conditions across much of southern Arizona. non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accu- Temperature – The new water year has begun with temperatures 2–4 degrees Fahr- racy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, enheit cooler than average across all of Arizona and western New Mexico. UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU)disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, in- Precipitation – The beginning of New Mexico’s water year has been very wet, while cluding (without limitation) any implied warranties Arizona’s has been very dry. of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of ENSO – ENSO-neutral conditions are once again the dominant pattern across the Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any Pacific basin; the probability continues to increase of ENSO-neutral conditions per- direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any sisting through this fall and into the winter. use or misuse of this data Climate Forecasts – Temperatre forecasts call for equal chances of above-, below-, Table of Contents: and near-normal temperatures in most of the region west of the Rockies throughout the remainder of 2008 and into early 2009. Precipitation forecasts call for slightly 2 October 2008 Climate Summary increased chances of below-average precipitation for the same period. 3 Feature article: 2008 Water Year in Review Recent Conditions The Bottom Line –New Mexico’s soil moisture is favorable for crops, due in part 10 Temperature to recent wet conditions, while dry conditions in Arizona have made soils extremely 11 Precipitation dry. With respect to water storage, Lakes Powell and Mead declined by 236,000 12 U.S. Drought Monitor acre-feet during September 2008. Although the combined levels fell in the last 13 Arizona Drought Status month, they are significantly higher than they were one year ago. Reservoir storage 14 New Mexico Drought Status in New Mexico also slightly declined in September. 15 Arizona Reservoir Levels 16 New Mexico Reservoir Levels Forecasts 17 Temperature Outlook 18 Precipitation Outlook 19 Seasonal Drought Outlook Eastern Pacific Tropical Storms 20 El Niño Status and Forecast Hurricane Norbert veered east in the Eastern Pacific Ocean Forecast Verification on October 11 and sliced through central Baja California 21 Temperature Verification Peninsula, destroying thousands of homes and sending a surge 22 Precipitation Verification of moist air northeastward into Arizona. This year, Norbert is not the only storm to batter towns and impact southwestern weather. Since the onset of the tropical hurricane season on May 15, Tropical Storm Julio on August 30, and Tropical Storm Lowell on September 6, also pushed moist air into the Southwest.Although Norbert, Julio, and Lowell dissipated over land before reaching the U.S. Southwest, decaying tropical storms pass over the re- gion about once in every five years, according to the National Weather Service. SWCO Staff: Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist The evolution of the 2008 tropical storm season largely has mirrored predictions Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist by experts. In mid-May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager (NOAA) predicted that the Eastern Pacific would experience 11 to 16 named storms Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director of Outreach and five to eight hurricanes. By October 16, 15 storms had been named and seven of Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist them had become hurricanes. The hurricane season will end on November 30. Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona. Southwest Climate Outlook, October 2008 3 | Feature Article 2008 SWCO water year in review Introduction The 2008 Water Year in Review offers a summary of the information presented in each month’s outlook during the 2008 water year. This review provides an overview of precipitation, temperature, reservoir levels, drought, wildfire, and El Niño conditions. The water year begins on October 1 and ends on September 30 of the following year, so this review covers October 1, 2007 through Sep- tember 30, 2008. The La Niña event htat developed at the beginning of the 2008 water year persisted until the summer months, influencing precipitation, streamflows, Top 5 headlines of the water year reservoir storage, and drought condi- 1) La Niña produced an El Niño-like winter in the Southwest: The onset tions. This La Niña, however, had an in- of winter snow and rain in the Southwest came abruptly at the end of No- teresting twist: in parts of Arizona, New vember and delivered copious precipitation. Although La Niña conditions Mexico, and the San Juan Mountains historically deliver less precipitation to Colorado’s San Juan Mountains and of Colorado, the La Niña winter felt southern Arizona, both areas were wet. more like an El Niño as rains and snows soaked these regions from late Novem- 2) Increase in the Lake Powell water level: Lake Powell’s water level rose about ber to early March. 26 feet during the water year, equal to approximately 2.6 million acre-feet. Al- though the actual water level increase was 14 feet less than the projection made The wet winter in many parts of the in April, the boost in storage is crucial and marks only the second year since Rockies, including the San Juan Moun- 2000 when the reservoir’s water level rose. tains, helped elevate streamflows and in- crease water storage in Lakes Powell and 3) Copious monsoon rains: Monsoon thunderstorms drenched most regions Mead for only the second time since in Arizona and New Mexico with above-average precipitation. Although the 2000. Short-term drought conditions monsoon started slowly, with spotty rains in June delivering above-average in many parts of the Southwest also rainfall to only a few regions, July thunderstorms came in droves. July rains, faded during the winter. They returned, aided in part by several decaying tropical storms, helped bump the average however, in the spring, with dry condi- precipitation in southern Arizona and the southwest corner of New Mexico tions sparking an active fire season for above 150 percent of normal. New Mexico. 4) Fire season vigorous in New Mexico but weak in Arizona: Dry and windy The summer monsoon appeared right conditions prevailed in New Mexico as the winter transitioned into spring. on cue in late June, dampening the This helped dry out fuels, and by the time the monsoon rains drenched the fire season with characteristic thunder- landscape in July more than 360,000 acres had burned, nearly twice the storms and delivering above-average historic average. Fires in Arizona, on the other hand, burned approximately summer precipitation to many regions. 96,000 acres, about half the historic average. Despite these frequent thunderstorms, the 2008 water year was generally drier 5) Innovative water management adopted for Colorado River: The U.S. than normal for most of Arizona and Department of the Interior signed a historic Record of Decision (RD) on De- New Mexico. Temperatures during the cember 13, to implement water management strategies for the Colorado River. water year were only slightly higher The new guidelines include preparing for future droughts and stimulating wa- than average across Arizona and much ter conservation. The RD was hailed as the most important agreement among of New Mexico. the seven basin states since the original 1922 Colorado River Compact. continued on page 4 http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swarticles.html Southwest Climate Outlook, October 2008 4 | Feature Article WYIR, continued Precipitation The 2008 water year was generally drier Figure 1a.
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