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A Autonomia Burocrática Das Organizações Financeiras Internacionais: Um Estudo Comparado Entre O Banco Mundial E O Fundo Monetário Internacional”

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A Autonomia Burocrática Das Organizações Financeiras Internacionais: Um Estudo Comparado Entre O Banco Mundial E O Fundo Monetário Internacional” UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO FACULDADE DE FILOSOFIA, LETRAS E CIÊNCIAS HUMANAS PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA “A Autonomia Burocrática das Organizações Financeiras Internacionais: um estudo comparado entre o Banco Mundial e o Fundo Monetário Internacional” Feliciano de Sá Guimarães Tese apresentada ao Programa de Pós- Graduação em Ciência Política do Departamento de Ciência Política da Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas da Universidade de São Paulo, para obtenção de título de Doutor em Ciência Política. Orientador: Professor Dr. Amâncio Jorge de Oliveira. 2006-2010 UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO FACULDADE DE FILOSOFIA, LETRAS E CIÊNCIAS HUMANAS PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA “A Autonomia Burocrática das Organizações Financeiras Internacionais: um estudo comparado entre o Banco Mundial e o Fundo Monetário Internacional” Feliciano de Sá Guimarães Tese apresentada ao Programa de Pós- Graduação em Ciência Política do Departamento de Ciência Política da Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas da Universidade de São Paulo, para obtenção de título de Doutor em Ciência Política. Orientador: Professor Dr. Amâncio Jorge de Oliveira. 2006-2010 2 Resumo: O objetivo geral deste trabalho é compreender as razões da autonomia burocrática das organizações financeiras internacionais. O objetivo específico é entender porque o Banco Mundial alcançou um grau maior de autonomia do que o Fundo Monetário Internacional a despeito de possuírem estruturas de governança parecidas e terem sido criados no mesmo contexto histórico. Acreditamos que as razões desta diferença residem na burocracia com expertise mais diversificada do Banco Mundial em contraste a burocracia com expertise mais rígida do FMI. Uma burocracia mais diversificada aumenta as possibilidades de formação de coalizões com ONG’s em torno de policies de interesse da burocracia. Estas coalizões aumentam os custos de intervenção dos Estados para alterar ou barrar as policies defendidas pelo corpo burocrático. Assim, nossa hipótese é a seguinte: quanto maior a diversidade de expertise da burocracia internacional maior será a possibilidade de formação de coalizões com ONG’s em torno de policies de seu interesse e, conseqüentemente, maior será sua autonomia burocrática. Do ponto de vista teórico utilizamos a teoria agente-principal para discutir burocracias internacionais. Do ponto de vista metodológico utilizamos o método comparativo com base em instrumentos qualitativos de análise e estatística descritiva. 3 Abstract The main goal of this dissertation is to understand the building of bureaucratic autonomy among international financial organizations. The specific goal is to understand why the World Bank has reached more bureaucratic autonomy than the International Monetary Fund regardless the fact that both have similar institutional structures. We believe that the reason for such difference is a more diverse expertise of the World Bank compared to the IMF. We claim that a more diverse bureaucracy increases the likelihood of coalition formation with NGOs. Such coalitions aim to support policies that are important for both the bureaucracy and the NGO’s. Consequently, they increase the costs for both State intervention and State control over the organization. The higher costs of intervention and control allow bureaucrats to act more freely according to their interests. Hence, our hypothesis is the following: the more diverse the bureaucratic expertise, the more likely is the formation of coalitions between bureaucracy and NGOs, and the greater the costs for State control and intervention. Higher intervention and control costs, in turn, increase bureaucratic autonomy. We use mainly qualitative research methods with some descriptive statistics. 4 Palavras chaves: organizações financeiras internacionais; burocracias; Banco Mundial; Fundo Monetário Internacional; autonomia burocrática. Sumário: Introdução pág. 09 Capítulo I – O Marco Teórico pág. 22 Capítulo II – Os Diferentes Níveis de Autonomia Burocrática pág. 39 Capítulo III – A Diversificação de Expertise do Banco Mundial pág. 57 Capítulo IV – A Aliança do Banco Mundial com as ONG’s pág. 87 Capítulo V – O FMI e o Controle dos principals pág. 120 Conclusão pág. 151 Bibliografia pág. 159 5 For Terea Wooster, my little one 6 Agradecimentos Gostaria de agradecer ao Professor Dr. Amâncio Jorge de Oliveira pelo apoio e orientação. A importância dada pelo Professor Amâncio à metodologia foi fundamental não apenas para elaboração da tese, mas principalmente para a minha formação como cientista político. Agradeço também ao pessoal do CAENI (Centro de Negociações Internacionais) pela ajuda e pelas discussões metodológicas dos últimos anos. Uma menção especial aos colegas Manoel Galdino, Pedro Feliú, Gustavo Araújo, Roberto Menezes, Professora Janina Onuki e Professora Christiane Carneiro. Meus agradecimentos institucionais ao CNPQ que me financiou no Brasil e no exterior. Meus sinceros agradecimentos aos professores do Departamento de Ciência Política da USP que contribuíram de alguma forma para o meu doutoramento: Professor Álvaro de Vita, Professora Maria Hermínia Tavares de Almeida, Professor Rafael Villa e Professor Wagner Mancuso. Agradeço também a Maria Raimunda dos Santos por ter me ajudado com toda a parte burocrática da USP e do CNPQ. Um professor teve um papel importante neste doutoramento: o Professor Fernando Limongi. Meus estudos e projeto de pesquisa mudaram para melhor após sua disciplina de Seminários de Pesquisa. O rumo certo começou a ser trilhado com suas colocações. Outra pessoa relevante para esta experiência foi o Professor James Raymond Vreeland da Universidade de Yale. Por razões que ainda desconheço o Professor Vreeland me aceitou como pesquisador visitante no Departamento de Ciência Política daquela Universidade. Esta experiência de quase dois anos mudou minha vida. Vários colegas em Yale foram importantíssimos neste período no estrangeiro. Um agradecimento especial a Luis Schiumerini, Paolo Spada, Brian Friend, Diego Werneck, Carolina Cooper, Andres del Rio, Andre Katz, André Cyrino, Rodrigo Ferreira e Kimberly Nucifora. Um amigo em especial foi mais do que fundamental nesta empreitada: Gabriel Cepaluni. Sem seus conselhos e amizade sincera dificilmente conseguiria finalizar este texto. 7 O Gabriel franqueou sua casa em Washington, D.C. em 2009 para minha pesquisa de campo e por isso sou muito agradecido. Tenho certeza que o Gabriel será um dos grandes cientistas políticos do Brasil. Agradeço também o meu colega de mestrado Diego Bonomo. Ele abriu sua casa em Washington, D.C. em 2010 quando precisei fazer várias entrevistas chaves para a tese. Faço votos para que o bebê que se aproxima lhe dê muitas alegrias. Um agradecimento especial aos meus colegas de São Paulo e da vida: Demetrius Pereira e Alberto Montoya. Estaremos sempre juntos neste mundo de RI e de baladas. Minha família está sempre ao meu lado nos momentos mais difíceis e solitários, como não poderia ser diferente. Pai, Mãe, Ana e Ricardo. Vocês são minha referência e sempre estarei perto de vocês, mesmo que a mil milhas de distância. Agradeço minha querida Taryn Mardegan. Nossos caminhos não se cruzaram de maneira definitiva. Mas esses anos ao seu lado e ao lado de sua família foram muito importantes para mim. Obrigado por tudo. Esta tese é dedicada a minha futura esposa: Terea Wooster. São Paulo, maio de 2010. 8 Introdução: Em abril de 1968, Robert McNamara, presidente do Banco Mundial, presidia uma reunião dos Diretores Executivos do Banco Mundial. Cada um dos 24 diretores representava países membros da organização. Um após o outro, os diretores atacaram um documento produzido pela burocracia acerca dos efeitos das desvalorizações cambiais realizadas por diversos países sobre os ativos financeiros do Banco. Ao sair da reunião com semblante abatido McNamara confessou sua mais nova convicção a William Clark, Vice-Presidente de relações exteriores. Segundo Clark, McNamara não gostou de debater por três horas e nada definir. Além disso, reclamou que os Diretores sequer mencionaram a palavra ‘desenvolvimento’. Ele havia se tornado presidente para lidar com problemas de desenvolvimento e não para participar de uma sociedade de debates. Para McNamara, no futuro nenhuma outra proposta deveria ser levada ao Executive Board sem que tivesse sido previamente acordada pela maioria dos votantes. O presidente sabia que era seu dever prestar contas aos principais membros da organização e fazia questão de que um fluxo crescente de papers e análises preparadas pelo staff chegassem às mãos dos Diretores. Mas essa atenção especial tinha um segundo objetivo: sobrecarregá-los. O objetivo era mantê-los ocupados enquanto ele administrava o Banco1. Em outubro de 2007, quase quarenta anos depois da reunião improdutiva de McNamara, o The New York Times publicou extenso artigo acerca das novas responsabilidades do Banco Mundial. Liderados pelo recém empossado presidente, Robert Zoellick, a instituição financeira administrava US$55 bilhões em reservas internacionais de diversos governos de renda média e baixa. Estes países adquiriam os serviços financeiros do Banco porque a instituição cobrava baixas taxas administrativas e tinha reputada confiança. Imediatamente, os críticos de esquerda apontaram: como um Banco construído para lutar contra a pobreza começou a administrar reservas internacionais e ativos dos países receptores de seus empréstimos? A direita não deixou por menos:
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