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Pathways for Meeting India's Climate Goals

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Pathways for Meeting India's Climate Goals WORKING PAPER PATHWAYS FOR MEETING INDIA’S CLIMATE GOALS APURBA MITRA, PUNEET CHITKARA, KATHERINE ROSS, MANPREET SINGH, SURUCHI SAWHNEY, SANDIP KESWANI, JUAN CARLOS ALTAMIRANO, TARYN FRANSEN, SARISHTHA MAJUMDAR, PRIYANKA BATRA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Highlights CONTENTS Over the past decade, India has taken several key steps Executive Summary .......................................1 ▪ to address climate change while supporting long- 1. Introduction .......................................... 6 term development objectives. Strong and clear policy 2. Background on the Climate Policy Framework in signals in sectors such as clean energy underline India ...................................................7 India’s commitment and continue to fuel optimism on sustained climate action. 3. Analysis of National Mitigation Goals ........... 10 4. Analysis of Key Mitigation Policies ............... 12 This paper analyzes the climate change mitigation ▪ goals that have been set and the key policies that have 5. Three Possible Futures: The Scenarios and Their been and are being implemented. The objective is Underlying Assumptions ..........................26 threefold: to enhance understanding of India’s goals, 6. Scenario Outputs and Discussion ................29 to evaluate implementation progress, and to identify 7. Recommendations .................................40 opportunities for going further. References ..........................................45 Our analysis finds that India is making progress ▪ toward its 2030 mitigation goal, but further Working Papers contain preliminary research, analysis, transparency is needed to support robust greenhouse findings, and recommendations. They are circulated to gas (GHG) accounting. stimulate timely discussion and critical feedback, and to The 2030 mitigation goal is within reach through influence ongoing debate on emerging issues. Working ▪ the full and effective implementation of the five key papers may eventually be published in another form, and policies and actions we analyzed: Perform, Achieve, their content may be revised. and Trade (PAT) scheme; Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC); clean environment cess; renewable power Suggested Citation: Mitra, A., P. Chitkara, K. Ross, M. Singh, by 2022; and Energy Conservation Building Code S. Sawhney, S. Keswani, J. Altamirano, T. Fransen, S. Majumdar, (ECBC; energy efficiency in the services sector). and P. Batra. 2017. “Pathways for Meeting India’s Climate Goals.” Moreover, India can meet its goal while maintaining Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/publication/meeting-indias-climate-goals. gross domestic product (GDP) growth and delivering significant development benefits. India can reduce its GHG emissions intensity even ▪ further through a set of targeted interventions that address existing policy, institutional, financial, and technological barriers. WORKING PAPER | June 2017 | 1 Context of policies in achieving GHG emission reductions as well as their impacts on GDP growth. Five policies/ In recent years, India has developed a range of actions were modeled: the PAT scheme; DFC policies, plans, and targets to address climate projects; clean environment cess; renewable power change while supporting the country’s long-term by 2022; and the ECBC. development agenda. In June 2008, India launched the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), outlining measures to promote sustainable development, Key Findings while also providing cobenefits to address climate change. Key finding #1: India is showing progress toward Under the NAPCC, various policies, programs, and reducing its GHG emissions intensity in line with initiatives have been initiated at the national and sectoral its mitigation goals, but further transparency level that have seen varying levels of implementation is needed to support robust GHG accounting. success. India also has two overarching climate mitigation Available information indicates that India's GHG goals: In 2009, India voluntarily pledged to reduce its emissions per unit of GHG are declining towards its emissions intensity per unit of GDP by 20 to 25 percent by targets. This is supported by our study as well as other 2020 relative to 2005 levels. Then, in 2015, India built on related analyses (UNDP 2017). To support more robust this goal in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), GHG accounting, further clarity is needed on emissions setting a new target to reduce its emissions intensity per intensity in the base year (2005) and the allowable unit GDP by 33 to 35 percent below 2005 by 2030. emissions in the target year (2030), as well as in the scope and coverage of the intensity target and the methodologies Hereafter, all policies, actions, programs, missions, plans, and for measuring it. initiatives in the paper are referred to as “policies” in short. Key finding #2: Financial incentives and a diverse About This Paper set of instruments have supported successful policy implementation, but some hurdles still This paper reviews India’s mitigation goals, need to be overcome. analyzes the progress of key mitigation policies, and assesses the potential contribution of these The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission has policies in reaching the NDC. In addition, this paper ▪ been instrumental in the decline of solar power prices reviews India’s national GHG emissions intensity goals in India and has assisted in accelerated deployment with the aim of providing inputs to enhance transparency of solar power in the country. The success of the solar around what these goals imply for future emissions. mission in its first phase resulted in the exceptional The paper also presents an analysis of the status of the ramp up of targets to 100,000 MW of solar power implementation of the policies that have significant installed capacity by 2022. However, notwithstanding potential to reduce GHG emissions. the decline in the cost of solar photovoltaic systems, We followed a three-pronged research approach: barriers to large-scale adoption of solar power in the country still exist, including the scarcity of available The Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s Mitigation Goal land, low-cost finance, domestic manufacturing ▪ Standard was applied to analyze progress toward capacity, supporting grid infrastructure as well as the mitigation goals. slow uptake of rooftop solar. The World Resources Institute’s Climate Policy Imple- The Electricity for All campaign has received ▪ mentation Tracking Framework was applied to assess ▪ considerable investment by the government. The the implementation status of key policies/actions. Grameen Vidyutikaran dashboard could be a useful tool to track the campaign’s progress if maintained A model was developed by KPMG India Private and updated on a real-time basis. ▪ Limited to project the GHG emissions for India until 2030 under different policy scenarios, which The PAT scheme is progressing well and resulting simulated the interactions among the economy, the ▪ in energy savings; however, it may not be able to energy systems, and the environment. The results of support an efficient Energy Saving Certificates market the model were used to assess the potential impact in the first phase, given that most sectors (barring 2 | Pathways for Meeting India’s Climate Goals thermal power generation) have met their targets, total energy mix. The scenarios we have modeled with obligated entities combined exceeding the target are optimistic that India will be able to meet and significantly. exceed the NDC mitigation target through the full and effective implementation of key national policies. The ECBC has faced barriers, which are in the process ▪ of being addressed by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency Development benefits: The implementation of these (BEE). The BEE has prepared a new draft of the ECBC ▪ policies will deliver significant development benefits, along with rules that were recently opened for public supporting India’s overall approach to tackling climate comments. change within the context of sustainable development. Our research shows that the overall income of both The Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All scheme rural and urban households could increase in the ▪ has been running successfully and has already proved range of 3 to 5 percent by 2030. Other benefits include to be effective in driving down the price of light- a reduction in local air pollutants, a modest increase emitting diodes (LEDs), transferring the savings to in jobs, and new investments in environmental the customer, and reducing energy consumption and projects (such as the Namami Gange Programme GHG emissions. to reduce pollution of the Ganga River, which is set to improve the health and living conditions for the The DFC projects, which are expected to significantly more than 150 million people that reside in the Ganga ▪ enhance efficiency in freight movement, have faced basin). implementation delays due to factors such as unavail- ability of finance, land acquisition, and so on. The possibility of further reductions: By ▪ further enhancing these five existing policies, our The Renewable Energy Certificate mechanism has results show that India can reduce the emissions ▪ faced challenges for a variety of reasons, including intensity of its economy even beyond its current the lack of enforcement of Renewable Purchase goals—by around 43 percent by 2030, relative to Obligations. 2005 levels. This is promising in light of the need for enhanced action in line with the Paris Agreement The National Clean Environment
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