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Situation Analysis on Climate Change INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE Asia Regional Office 63 Sukhumvit Soi 39 Bangkok 10110, Thailand Tel: +66 2 662 4029 Fax: +66 2 662 4389 www.iucn.org/asia Bangladesh Country Office House 16, Road 2/3, Banani Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh Tel: +8802 9890423 Fax: +8802 9892854 www.iucn.org/bangladesh India Country Office 2nd Floor, 20 Anand Lok, August Kranti Marg, New Delhi 110049, India Tel/Fax: +91 11 4605 2583 www.iucn.org/india DIALOGUE FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF TRANS-BOUNDARY WATER REGIMES IN SOUTH ASIA Ecosystems for Life • Inland Navigation 1 Situation Analysis on Climate Change K Shreelakshmi Chandan Mahanta Nandan Mukherjee and Malik Fida Abdullah Khan Nityananda Chakravorty Ecosystems for Life: A Bangladesh-India Initiative Ecosystems for Life • Inland Navigation 1 The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, administration, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication are authors’ personal views and do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN. This initiative is supported by the Minister for European Affairs and International Cooperation, the Netherlands. Published by: IUCN Asia Regional Office; IUCN Bangladesh Country Office; IUCN India Country Office; IUCN Gland, Switzerland Copyright: © 2012 IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. Citation: IUCN (2012) Situation Analysis on Climate Change, Ecosystems for Life: A Bangladesh-India Initiative, IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature. Coordination: Ganesh Pangare, Bushra Nishat Editorial design: Pradip Saha Copy editing: Pratap Pandey Cover Photo by: IUCN Bangladesh Cover design by: Sheikh Asaduzzaman and A. J. M. Zobaidur Rahman Available from: IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Asia Regional Office, Bangkok Bangladesh Country Office, Dhaka India Country Office, New Delhi www.iucn.org/E4L 2 Inland Navigation • Ecosystems for Life Preface Bangladesh and India share three major river systems: the Ganga, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. Along with their tributaries, these rivers drain about 1.75 million sq km of land, with an average runoff of 1,200 cu km. The GBM system also supports over 620 million people. Thus, the need for cooperation on trans-boundary waters is crucial to the future well-being of these millions. That is precisely the motivation for the Ecosystems for Life: A Bangladesh- India Initiative (Dialogue for Sustainable Management of Trans-boundary Water Regimes in South Asia) project. IUCN wishes to promote a better understanding of trans-boundary ecosystems between Bangladesh and India, by involving civil society in both counries and by providing a platform to discuss issues common and germane to the region. The overall goal is an improved, integrated management of trans-boundary water regimes in South Asia. The Ecosystems for Life is guided by a Project Advisory Committee (PAC) of eminent persons from Bangladesh and India. This four-and-a-half year initiative is supported by the Minister for European Affairs and International Cooperation, the Netherlands. Ecosystems for Life will develop, through dialogue and research, longer-term relationships between various stakeholder groups within and between the countries. It will develop a common understanding to generate policy options on how to develop and manage natural resources sustainably such that livelihoods and water and food security improve. Inter-disciplinary research that relevant issues are holistically grasped. studies will be conducted by bringing together experts from various fields from both countries so The initiative centres around five broad thematic areas: • food security, water productivity and poverty; • impacts of climate change; • inland navigation; • environmental security; and • biodiversity conservation. BangladeshThe first phase geographic of the project focus, concentrated research gaps on and creating needs ‘situationand, ultimately, analyses’ priority on each areas thematic for joint area. research. Each analysis set identified core issues vis-a-vis a thematic area, their significance within the India- Studies were taken up in the later part of 2010 and early 2011. Authors discussed their points- was further circulated among multiple stakeholders in both countries. All outcomes of this dialogic of-view at a joint exercise; they shared their research. After due PAC review, the ensuing material are now complete and ready for publication. We will also subsequently publish summary briefs, process are incorporated in the final papers. 16 situation analyses related to the five thematic areas joint research is clear. based on these studies. The initiative, thus, has taken a big step; now, the agenda for meaningful IUCN hopes these publications will be useful to academics, researchers and practitioners in the GBM region. Ecosystems for Life • Climate Change Situation Analysis 3 The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) region River Ganga Brahmaputra Meghna Length1 (km) 2,510 2,900 210 Catchment2 (sq km) 10,87,300 5,52,000 82,000 Total area of GBM region: 17,21,300 sq km Source: 1. Average, based on various data; 2. Joint River Commission figures 4 Climate Change Situation Analysis • Ecosystems for Life Contents climate ChANGE | INdIA Impacts in India: key issues 7 – K Shreelakshmi climate ChANGE | INdIA Climate change impacts and north-east India 55 – Chandan Mahanta climate ChANGE | bangladESh Impacts on hydro-meteorology: a research agenda 83 – Nandan Mukherjee and Malik Fida Abdullah Khan climate ChANGE | bangladESh What will happen when climate change occurs? 107 – Nityananda Chakravorty Ecosystems for Life • Climate Change Situation Analysis 5 © Pradip Saha 6 Climate Change Situation Analysis • Ecosystems for Life climate ChANGE | INdIA Impacts in India: key issues K Shreelakshmi ndia and Bangladesh face many common challenges. Even as their overlapping geographies force them to share a climate, with its associated vulnerabilities, their use of common resources like Iwater means that actions in one country can profoundly impact the other. As the impacts of climate change begin to set in, the commonalities in the former will lend greater urgency to the relationship in the latter. As both countries begin to face ever increasing temperatures and ever more erratic this spirit, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has begun an international precipitation, they will be forced to find greater common cause in their shared water resources. In and promote cooperation in areas such as food, livelihood and climate change. This study is part of thateffort, effort, examining focusing India on climateand Bangladesh’s change and shared representing water resources the Indian in perspective. an attempt to facilitate dialogue The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) region is the geographic focus of this analysis. It was selected due to its incredible importance in terms of supplying water and livelihoods to both countries, while occupying a significant area of India and the entirety of Bangladesh. We focus Madhyaspecifically Pradesh, on the Rajasthan, India part Uttarakhand, of the GBM region, Uttar Pradesh only on andthose West states Bengal. which The fall stateswithin falling one of within three theriver Brahmaputra basins. For the basin Ganga are basin,Sikkim, these Nagaland, include Meghalaya, Bihar, Delhi, Assam, Haryana, and ArunachalHimachal Pradesh, Pradesh. Jharkhand, The states falling in the Meghna basin are Tripura, Manipur, Mizoram and Meghalaya, though the vast majority of this state lies in the Brahmaputra basin. Though Nepal and Bhutan are also part of the GBM region, these countries fall outside the scope of study and will be mentioned only when directly relevant. Our purpose is to arrive at a situation analysis of the impacts of climate change in the GBM basin, including the social, environmental and economic implications, especially for India. Additionally, we identify research knowledge gaps, to serve as a guide for future research in climate change and cooperation between India and Bangladesh. The knowledge gaps, described throughout, are taken to that extent, this element of the paper could be considered a sort of meta-study, synthesizing the directly and almost exclusively from the information in prior case studies and literature reviews; knowledge gaps identified by prior efforts. Ecosystems for Life • Climate Change Situation Analysis 7 Key issues and thesis This situation analysis will proceed first by giving a background on the GBM region, including relevant indemographic, Bangladesh geographic,and India will hydrological be given and and the social sheer statistics; size of relevantthe area informationand accompanying in these population areas will willalso be givenemphasized. for India’s In GBMthe hydrological states. In terms section, of geography/demography, the contrasting descriptions the ratio of of a theregion GBM blessed falling with bountiful water resources yet ravaged
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