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Climate Change in the Brahmaputra Valley and Impact on Rice and Tea Productivity

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Climate Change in the Brahmaputra Valley and Impact on Rice and Tea Productivity CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE BRAHMAPUTRA VALLEY AND IMPACT ON RICE AND TEA PRODUCTIVITY A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By Rajib Lochan Deka CENTRE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY GUWAHATI GUWAHATI–781039, ASSAM, INDIA MARCH, 2013 INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHONOLOGY GUWAHATI Centre for the Environment Guwahati –781039 Assam India CERTIFICATE This is to certify that the thesis entitled “ Climate Change in the Brahmaputra Valley and Impact on Rice and Tea Productivity ” submitted by Mr. Rajib Lochan Deka to the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy is a record of bonafide research work carried out by him under our supervision and guidance. Mr. Deka has carried out research on the topic at the Centre for the Environment of IIT Guwahati over a period of three years and eight months and the thesis, in our opinion, is worthy of consideration for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in accordance with the regulations of this Institute. The results contained in this thesis have not been submitted elsewhere in part or full for the award of any degree or diploma to the best of our knowledge and belief. Mrinal Kanti Dutta Chandan Mahanta Associate Professor Professor Department of Humanities and Social Sciences Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati Guwahati-781 039, Assam, India Guwahati-781 039, Assam, India TH-1188_0865206 INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHONOLOGY GUWAHATI Centre for the Environment Guwahati –781039 Assam India STATEMENT I do hereby declare that the matter embodied in the thesis is a result of research work carried out by me in the Centre for the Environment, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati, Assam, India. In keeping with the general practice and reporting scientific observations, due acknowledgements have been made wherever the work described is based on the findings of other investigators. IIT Guwahati (Rajib Lochan Deka) March, 2013 Research Scholar Centre for the Environment Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati Guwahati-781039, Assam, India. TH-1188_0865206 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT With immense pleasure, I take the privilege to express my deep sense of gratitude and profound appreciation to my supervisors, Dr. Chandan Mahanta, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam and Dr. Mrinal Kanti Dutta, Associate Professor, Department of Humanities & Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam for their expert guidance, scholarly suggestions, dynamic and great encouragement as well as perpetual inspiration throughout the course of the investigation and preparation of this manuscript. They both have remained constant motivations to my efforts and have always strived to bring the best out of me. I would also like to record my heartfelt thanks and reverence to the chairman of the Doctoral Committee, Dr. Subashisa Dutta, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati, for his valuable suggestions and help at various stages of this research work. I am indebted to Dr. Rakhi Chaturvedi, Associate Professor, Department of Biotechnology and Dr. Anil. K. Saikia, Professor, Department of Chemistry, IIT Guwahati, for their keen interest, valuable suggestions and guidance provided to complete this work as members of the Doctoral Committee. I also take this opportunity to thank Dr. Gopal Das, Head, Centre for the Environment, IIT Guwahati for providing necessary facilities and encouragement at various stages of this investigation. I am grateful to Assam Agricultural University for granting me required study leave which has made it possible to complete my doctoral studies. I take this opportunity to convey my heartfelt thanks to Dr. K. K. Nath, Retired Professor and Head and Dr. R. Hussain, Agrometeorologist cum Head, Department of Agrometeorolgy, Assam Agricultural University, Jorhat for providing field experimental data for evaluation of the CERES-Rice model. My special thanks to the National Data Centre, IMD, Pune and the Regional Meteorological Centre, Guwahati, Assam for providing the meteorological data used in this study. I am indebted to the authorities of the Amalgamated Plantations Private Limited for the tea production statistics of the Kakajan Tea Estate, Jorhat, Assam. My sincere TH-1188_0865206 thanks goes to Mr. Kailyanjeet Borah, Manager, R & D Division, Teok Tea Estate, Jorhat, Amalgamated Plantations Private Limited for providing valuable suggestions and help at various stages of this work. It is virtually impossible to name all my friends and well wishers with whom I shared many happy moments during my stay at IIT Guwahati, but I would be failing in my duty, if do not take the names of Lalit, Pronob, Wazir, Hriday, Parag, Ratan, Ashok, Pranjal, Tejasha, Nayanmoni, Bharati, Swapnali, Nashi, Usha and Adithi for their good wishes, help and support at various phases of this study. I would also like to offer my love, admiration and respect to my parents and other family members for their love, blessings and moral support without which this work probably would not have seen the light of the day. My sincere thanks and gratitude goes to my wife Niva for her continuous support, patience and encouragement throughout my thesis period. Last but not the least, my heartfelt thanks goes to our son Upamanyu for his long patience and for being so understanding all along. Finally, to the Almighty God who has seen me this far, receive all the honour and glory! March, 2013 (Rajib Lochan Deka) IIT Guwahati TH-1188_0865206 ABSTRACT Given the vulnerability of agricultural sector to variations in weather conditions, it will be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. This study assesses the state of climate change and variability in the Brahmaputra valley of India and consequent implications on productivity of two important crops – rice and tea grown extensively in the valley. The trends and fluctuations of the major climatic variables were assessed using statistical techniques. A quantitative assessment of the impact of observed as well as projected climate on rice and tea productivity was carried out in the study area through statistical and process-based simulation models. Historical rainfall data from 1901–2010, temperature data from 1951–2010 and sunshine duration data from 1971–2010 were analyzed for assessing long-term trends. A suite of climate change indices derived from daily rainfall (1955–2010) and temperature (1971–2010) data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed to understand the trends. The impact of climate change and its variability on yield patterns of rice and tea were based on 26 years of district level rice yield data (1985–2010) and 20 years of estate level tea yield data (1991–2010). The CERES-Rice crop simulation model was used to predict rice yield under future climate scenarios. The likely impact of future climate changes on tea yield was based on the statistical models developed for monthly yields and climate data of 1991 to 2010. Annual and monsoon rainfall in the study area exhibited a weak diminishing tendency during 1901–2010 due to significant decrease in rainfall in the eastern part of the valley. Significant declining trend of monsoon rainfall during the recent 30-year period was due to significant decrease of July and September rainfall and this trend was consistent at different spatial scales. The intensity of monsoon rainfall was found to diminish over the entire valley due to decrease in the extreme fractions of rainfall, marked by extremely wet, very wet and moderately wet days during the recent three decades (1981–2010). Decrease of rainfall fraction due to moderately wet days was particularly significant in the eastern and western parts of the valley. Rainfall during pre-monsoon and post monsoon season showed increasing tendency during the most recent 30-year period due rise in extreme rainfall indices over the valley. Increase of rainfall during pre-monsoon was primarily contributed by significant increase of April rainfall in the western part of the valley. TH-1188_0865206 During post-monsoon, October rainfall showed a spatially coherent increasing tendency during the last three decades (1981–2010). In the eastern and central parts of the valley, winter rainfall also declined during the last three decades due to significant decrease of December rainfall. Annual mean temperature in the Brahmaputra valley increased significantly between 1951 and 2010 by 0.088°C/decade due to increase in both maximum (0.077°C/decade) and minimum (0.090°C/decade) temperature. During the recent 30-year period, the warming trend (0.313°C/decade) was particularly pronounced. During this period, minimum temperature increased at higher rate than that of maximum temperature due to significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in annual occurrence of warm nights. Mean bright sunshine duration in the valley significantly decreased by 0.33 hr/decade during the last 40 years. Highest decrease (0.50 hr/decade) was observed during pre-monsoon while lowest decrease (0.15 hr/decade) was observed during post-monsoon season. Multivariate regression analysis between first differences of historical rice yield and first differences of climatic variables showed 1) number of rainy days during reproductive phase, 2) minimum temperature and 3) sunshine duration
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