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The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink Ination, Indiana Sen Thursday, March 11, 2004 Volume 10, Number 29 Page 1 of 10 he Rating Bayh’s odds T for Kerry’s ticket Howey Key question: Could he carry Indiana? By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis and MARK SCHOEFF JR. in Washington Arianna Huffington has written to U.S. Sen. John Political Kerry telling him to forget Evan Bayh. University of Virginia Prof. Larry Sabato said that Al Gore would have won in 2000 if Bayh had been on the ticket. The Hill gives Report Bayh 4:1 odds of making the cut, best on its list. In the race for the Democratic vice presidential nom- The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink ination, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh ranks high on the buzz list Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is in Washington. “I'd put him in the top half-dozen. He's on an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political process in Indiana. virtually every top 10 list,” said Joe Romer, a capital denizen who's worked in Hoosier Democratic politics for 35 years. Brian A. Howey, publisher “Bayh is a very capable guy. He's got a great resume. On Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer balance, he brings huge assets to the ticket.” Jack E. Howey, editor Romer's list of Bayh's strengths include a moderate voting record, executive experience as governor, a telegenic, The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 articulate demeanor, security policy background developed Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 through his positions on the Senate Armed Services and [email protected] Intelligence committees, the regional balance he would pro- www.howeypolitics.com vide for Kerry, his clean record and his relative youth. “He symbolizes the future of the party, and you can't Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. say that about a lot of the other candidates,” Romer said. It's also unlikely that national media scrutiny of Subscriptions: $350 annually via e-mail; Bayh would result in skeletons coming out of his closet. In a $550 annually including the HPR Daily job whose first requirement is to do no harm to the ticket, Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. the integrity factor is crucial. “That's no small thing,” said © 2004, The Howey Political Report. All rights Romer. reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or But reading the tea leaves in Washington has been reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- difficult. “They're playing it very close to the vest,” Romer tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without said of the Kerry campaign. consent of the publisher. “He was a very gentle man, a very good man, Howey: Remembering Gov. Orr p. 3 a very caring man.” Horse Race: Bowen endorses Miller p. 4 Columnists: Rutter, Gerard p. 7 - Former Indiana Republican Chairman Star on Borst: Connecting the dots? p. 8 Gordon Durnil on the late Gov. Robert D. Orr, who Congressmen team up on Kernan p.10 died Wednesday evening, to the Associated Press Covering 10 years of Indiana politics Thursday, March 11, 2004 Page 2 of 10 But inscrutability may be a good Schoeff’s analysis tack for Kerry to take. “If I were advising The Midwestern momentum argu- them, I'd advise them to (name a VP) as ment may be wishful. Yes, Bayh has won late as possible," said Chris Sautter, a four elections in a row (and his designated Washington media consultant. The deci- successor as governor another two) since sion “should be driven by the needs of 1986 in a conservative enclave. Bayh, KITTLE SAYS ORR MADE July rather than the needs of March.” however, would have to start his VP cam- INDIANA A BETTER PLACE: Sautter said that the political Indiana Republican paign by building name ID in neighboring Chairman Jim Kittle Jr. atmosphere is almost identical to the one states. Someone like North Carolina Sen. released this statement fol- that surrounding the 2000 campaign. The John Edwards is well known in his south- lowing the death of Gov. country is evenly split, and each party ern home region in his White House bid. Robert D. Orr: “I am sad- is likely to hold on to its base, making the Although Bayh does bring a laun- dened by the passing of general election a contest for six or so dry list of strengths to a hypothetical Gov. Robert Orr. Bob was a states that are in play. “It would be pru- ticket with Kerry, he does not provide per- good friend to me and to dent for the nominee to pick someone sonality balance. Like Kerry, Bayh is a Hoosiers everywhere. My who helps bring in a red state” he said. prayers are with Mary Kay somewhat stiff policy wonk. No one and Bob’s family. Indiana accuses Bayh of being arrogant, but he has lost a leader, a gentle- VP Rejected in Home State? hasn't developed the embracabilty of an man, and a champion of our But Bayh's ability to transfer Edwards and isn't known for having a state. Indiana is a better Indiana from the red to blue column may common touch. One interesting question place because of Bob Orr.” undermine his viability. Indiana has not about Bayh is whether he could project voted for a Democratic since 1964. himself into the lives of average voters GOV. KERNAN STATMENT: and demonstrate that he feels their pain. “Indiana has lost its second “The primary barrier to putting great leader in the last six Bayh on the ticket is his ability to bring in months. Bob Orr devoted a state Bush carried four years ago,” said Howey’s analysis his life to the service of the Sautter. “Other names stand a better The critical question seems to be, people of Indiana and chance of bringing in their state that Bayh “Could Bayh carry Indiana if he was on America. He was always does in Indiana.” the ticket?” My answer would be, yes. willing to share his good Romer also is skeptical that Bayh Would it be a cinch? No. counsel and offer his sup- could put Indiana into Kerry's fold. “It's port. He was a friend who But remember, this is a state will be missed. I join all still a big question mark that he can bring where Bayh has consistently demonstrated Hoosiers in mourning the Indiana in," said Romer. “It's plausible, coattails. Everytime he’s been on the bal- passing of Gov. Bob Orr. but I see it as less than 50-50.” lot, he’s pulled in more Indiana House Our prayers are with Mrs. Still, Bayh would add a Democrats seats. He has maintained the Orr and the Orr family.” Midwestern element to the ticket. “He's states’s best Democratic political organi- Gov. Kernan order all flags from a place in the middle of three states zation; he controls the party’d central at Indiana to half staff for (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio) where unem- committee. Don’t for a minute think that seven days in honor of Gov. ployment is high.” if Kerry chose him, all of those assets Orr. Fort Wayne Journal Gazette built up over the past two decades would- DANIELS STATEMENT: columnist Sylvia Smith even suggested n’t kick in at the highest level. “Bob Orr was a friend, a Bayh could use some of his re-election The latest polls show President great leader and a personal money to run TV in the Cincinnati, Bush leading Kerry by 8 percent in hero,” Republican guberna- Dayton and Toledo markets to bump up Indiana. Those are not good numbers for torial candidate Mitch his impact in Ohio along with South Bend the president. Indiana is in roughly the Daniels said today. “While and Fort Wayne which would reach south- same boat as Ohio is, experiencing a high he led us, Indiana thrived ern Michigan and, perhaps, the sprawling loss of jobs. That will be the top issue economically, improved its here. Bayh can say he helped create schools and enjoyed effec- Chicago market that would reach Illinois, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin. 300,000 new jobs and left the state with Continued on page 3 billions of dollars of surpluses. Page 3 of 10 Thursday, March 11, 2004 My First Big Story front was economic development and pol- itics. and Gov. Orr tive government. The best Elkhart’s entry way from the My second job out of Indiana tribute we can pay him is to Indiana Toll Road to downtown was an University was the state editor perch at return to and surpass the aterial highway (Indiana 19) named the Elkhart Truth, a daily newspaper that standards he set.” Cassopolis Street. Back in the mid-1980s, circulated in two Michigan counties just it was a clogged, cluttered and ugly two- HOGSETT STATEMENT: to the north. lane street that gave Elkhart a terrible first Indiana Democratic Party Several months after I arrived impression for travelers coming in from Chairman Hogsett released there in 1979, my Edwardsburg, Mich., the north. The city tried to get the state to this statement: “Regardless correspondent called in with a hot tip: move its widening up on the priority list. of our differences in party Cass County wants to secede to Indiana! affiliation, all Hoosiers – Everytime Gov. Orr came to the city, he The big insurrection was going to Democrats and Republicans was harrangued by the locals. occur at The Dock on Eagle Lake and the alike – are deeply saddened Yet, nothing happened.
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