HPI Forecast: Super Majority Hold Bers
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V20, N13 Thursday Oct. 30, 2014 HPI forecast: Super majority hold bers. Walorski expected to fend And the 2014 off Bock; Dems could pick up midterm? A compara- tive yawner. House seats, but not enough; Yes there is the historic all-female Senate eyes on 3 river races Republican statewide ticket, with this trio of By BRIAN A. HOWEY Connie Lawson, Kelly ENGLISH, Ind. – In the 2008 election Mitchell and Suzanne cycle, we had the epic Barack Obama/Hillary Crouch expected to Clinton presidential primary, and then Obama prevail. broke a 44-year Republican lock on Indiana’s Yes, there are Electoral College vote as the Obamas, Clintons, a cluster of Indiana McCains and Palins made more than 150 cam- House seats where paign appearances on Hoosier soil. Democrats are In the 2010 midterms, the Republicans pressing Republican stormed back, taking two Congressional seats, incumbents like Reps. Evan Bayh’s Senate seat and a 60-40 major- Ed Soliday and Hal ity in the Indiana House. In 2012, we had the Slager in The Region. $50 million U.S. Senate race that saw Rich- HPI is forecasting the historic all-female GOP ticket of There’s another set ard Mourdock depose Sen. Dick Lugar in the treasurer nominee Kelly Mitchell, Secretary of State of Indiana Senate primary, only to blunder and watch Democrat Connie Lawson, and Auditor Suzanne Crouch to prevail, seats along the Ohio Joe Donnelly capture the seat, saw Mike and House and Senate super majorities to hold River that are tos- Pence become the first governor in half a century without 50 percent of the vote, and Continued on page 3 Republicans took super majorities in both legislative cham- Indiana Democrats struggle By CHRIS SAUTTER WASHINGTON – There’s a little known fact about Democratic congressional challengers in Indiana. They only defeat Republican incumbents in midterm elections. The last time a Democratic challenger knocked off a Republican incumbent to win a seat in the U.S House of Represenatatives in a presiden- “There are appropriate ways to tial year was in 1964 when Lee reach voters by phone, and I will Hamilton defeated Earl Wilson in the 9th District. take swift action against candi- Since 1964 Democrats dates who disregard our laws in have defeated congressional Republican incumbents only in an attempt to solicit votes.” off-year elections—1974, 1982, 1990, and 2006. No Democratic - Attorney General Greg Senate candidate has won over Zoeller, warning candidates an incumbent since Birch Bayh upset 3-term incumbent Senator not to use robo calls Page 2 Homer Capehart in 1962. ment. Walorski narrowly won this So why have Hoosier Demo- swing district in 2012 and appeared crats only won in midterm elections vulnerable a year ago. and why are they not more competi- But Bock faces both the tive in this year’s election? harsh reality of history and a national One simple answer to the first party that has turned its back on him. question is that Indiana is a Repub- Virtually no national resources are lican state — the “reddest” in the making their way to the 2nd District. Midwest. The GOP presidential nomi- Instead, the Democratic Congressional nee almost always wins in Indiana Campaign Committee has all but given is a non-partisan newslet- with coattails large enough to ensure up on challenger races and put most ter based in Indianapolis and re-election for incumbent Republican of their resources behind trying to Nashville, Ind. It was founded members of Congress, while occasion- save endangered incumbents. Walor- in 1994 in Fort Wayne. ally picking up additional seats held ski has used her money advantage to by Democrats. Unlike other states, soften her own image while demon- It is published by in Indiana the presidential year only izing Bock. WWWHowey Media, LLC voter is more likely to vote Republican Hoosier Democrats currently 405 Massachusetts Ave., than Democrat. hold only two seats in the U.S. House, Suite 300 Indianapolis, IN The Democratic presidential their lowest number since the 1950’s. 46204 nominee has won Indiana only twice The odds of Hoosier Democrats pick- since 1940 — in 1964 and 2008. Lee ing up additional seats in the near Hamilton readily admits that Lyndon future seem to be long. Brian A. Howey, Publisher Johnson’s landslide victory paved the Competition in U.S. House Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington way for his first win in 1964. Andy elections has been declining for more Jack E. Howey, Editor Jacobs also acknowledged that LBJ than 50 years, primarily due to built-in Mary Lou Howey, Editor carried him into the winner’s circle in advantages for incumbents, but also 1964, although Jacobs won an open due to increased partisan polarization Maureen Hayden, Statehouse seat previously held by a Republican. and redistricting. The re-election rate Matthew Butler, Daily Wire Barack Obama’s victory in is well over 90%, making it difficult to 2008 over John McCain was too defeat an incumbent under almost any Subscriptions narrow to have coattails. However, circumstance. HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 Democrats picked up three congres- These days, congressional in- sional seats in 2006 in the most cumbents lose for one of two reasons HPI Weekly, $350 competitive districts in the state — the — they are embroiled in scandal or Ray Volpe, Account Manager 2nd, the 8th, and the 9th — rendering they have grown out-of-touch. In the 317.602.3620 a Democratic congressional pickup in absence of scandal, it usually takes a email: [email protected] 2008 unlikely in any event. wave year or at least a mini-wave year The answer to the second to take out even out-of-touch incum- question is that midterm elections are bents. Contact HPI historically bad for the party in the It was the 1974 Democratic www.howeypolitics.com White House. Since World War II, the wave following the Watergate scandal [email protected] party controlling the White House has and President Nixon’s resignation that Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 lost seats in every midterm election helped Andy Jacobs re-capture the In- Washington: 202.256.5822 except two--in 1998 and 2002. Indi- dianapolis area seat he lost to William ana Democrats have only knocked off Hudnut in Richard Nixon’s 1972 land- Business Office: 317.602.3620 House Republicans in midterm elec- slide re-election. Four other Demo- tions when Republicans controlled the crats, Phil Sharp, Floyd Fithian, Dave © 2014, Howey Politics Indiana. White House. Evans, and Phil Hayes, also defeated All rights reserved. Photocopy- This year, only one Demo- Republican incumbents in 1974. ing, Internet forwarding, fax- cratic challenger—Joe Bock in In- Frank McCloskey upended diana’s 2nd District—appears to be two-term incumbent Joel Deckard in ing or reproducing in any form, mounting anything approaching a the 8th District in 1982, but only after whole or part, is a violation of serious campaign. Bock is a quality Deckard got drunk and drove into a federal law without permission candidate who has been hammering tree. The Reagan recession helped from the publisher. incumbent Jackie Walorski for her vote put McCloskey in a position to win. In last year to shut down the govern- 1990 Tim Roemer won back the South Page 3 Bend area district that John Brademas had held by defeat- The unpopularity of the War in Iraq and George W. Bush’s ing 5-term incumbent John Hiler. Hiler had lost touch with presidency in general greatly aided their efforts. the district but may have not been a good match to begin The Indiana Democratic Party is struggling much with. as it did in the early 1980’s. It will take a major rebuilding It was a Republican wave in 1994 that swept effort and better national dynamics before Democrats can out two Democratic incumbents, McCloskey and Jill Long. hope to regain the glory years when they held eight out of It took another 12 years before Democrats would defeat 10 congressional seats. v incumbent Republicans: Joe Donnelly over Chris Chocola, Brad Ellsworth over John Hostetler, and Baron Hill over Sautter is a Democratic consultant based in Wash- Mike Sodrel. Sodrel had beaten Hill two years earlier in a ington. district that has been trending Republican for some time. The GOP-leaning Hoosiers for Quality Education Forecast, from page 1 outspent I-PACE $87,000 to $17,000 in the Senate and sups, including incumbent Republican Sens. Jim Smith and $112,000 to $72,000 in House races in the final month. Ron Grooms and Democrat Richard Young fighting for their The Associated Press reported that ISTA has spent $1 mil- political lives. And freshman U.S. Jackie Walorski is facing lion over the past six months. a spirited challenge from Notre Dame’s Joe Bock. A case in point is Democrat Deb Porter’s challenge But compared to the last three election cycles, this has been a letdown, or, perhaps, just a breather. Why? First, many Democrats were reluctant to ante up in 2014, fearful that President Obama and the Af- fordable Care Act’s vast unpopularity in Indiana would doom them at the ballot box. Historically, Democrats defeated Hoosier congressional Republicans in mid- terms, and only in midterms over the past generation, as Jim Jontz, Frank McCloskey, Tim Roemer, Baron Hill, Brad Ellsworth, and Donnelly will attest. Many Demo- crats decided that 2016 would present a better scenar- io. Second, it is the one cycle in every four with no presidential, gubernatorial or U.S. Senate race on the ballot. The leading office is secretary of state. Until Supt. Glenda Ritz’s upset victory in 2012, a Democrat hadn’t won a constitutional statewide office other than governor and lieutenant governor since 1996.