Regional Safety Update Gerardo Hueto Assistant Director SFO ASPAC

Singapore Aviation Safety Seminar – March 2017 Accidents Update: As at 30 Sep 2016 1 Outline

Statistics: Accidents and Precursors

Safety Focus: Top Risks

Addressing Risks Safety Performance: All Accidents per Million Sectors

Accidents Update: As of 13 Jan 2017 All Accident Rate for IOSA Operators vs. Non-IOSA (includes Jet & Turboprop aircraft) Period: 2012 to 2016 All Accident Rate per Region of Operator As at 13 Jan 2017 CIS EUR 3.85 2016 1.25 2016 3.19 2015 NAM 1.44 2015 4.64 2011-2015 0.94 2016 1.99 2011-2015 NASIA 2015 1.17 MENA 0.19 2016 1.34 2011-2015 5.80 2016 0.86 2015 1.22 2015 0.77 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 3.16 2011-2015 2.80 2016 ASPAC

0.97 2015 2.05 2016 AFI 2.64 2011-2015 3.16 2015 2.30 2016 World IATA Members 2.94 2011-2015 7.36 2015 2016 1.61 1.54 2015Accidents Update:1.79 As at 30 1.25SepJune 2016 2009 9.735 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 2.25 1.35 All Accidents Overview

2016 (Jan – Dec)

As of: 13 January 2016

Total Accidents 65

Accidents with IATA Members 33 Total Jet Hull Losses 13 Total Turbo-Prop Hull Losses 8

Total Fatal Accidents 10

Fatalities 268 Safety Performance: Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors) Fatality Risk per Region of Operator As at 13 Jan 2017 CIS EUR 0.50 2016 0.11 2016 0.00 2015 NAM 0.00 2015 1.77 2011-2015 0.09 2016 0.04 2011-2015 NASIA 2015 0.09 MENA 0.00 2016 0.13 2011-2015 1.16 2016 0.16 2015 0.00 2015 0.08 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 0.36 2011-2015 0.55 2016 ASPAC

0.00 2015 0.40 2016 AFI 0.43 2011-2015 0.16 2015 0.00 2016 World IATA Members 0.41 2011-2015 0.80 2015 2016 0.23 0.14 2015Accidents Update:0.10 As at 30 0.04SepJune 2016 2009 2.038 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 0.31 0.08 Jet Safety Performance: Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors) Jet Fatality Risk per Region of Operator As at 13 Jan 2017 CIS EUR 0.00 2016 0.14 2016 0.00 2015 NAM 0.00 2015 1.32 2011-2015 0.00 2016 0.03 2011-2015 NASIA 2015 0.00 MENA 0.00 2016 0.06 2011-2015 1.24 2016 0.00 2015 0.00 2015 0.00 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 0.11 2011-2015 0.70 2016 ASPAC

0.00 2015 0.00 2016 AFI 0.00 2011-2015 0.00 2015 0.00 2016 World IATA Members 0.19 2011-2015 0.00 2015 2016 0.14 0.10 2015Accidents Update:0.00 As at 30 0.00SepJune 2016 2009 0.6110 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 0.12 0.06 Turboprop Safety Performance: Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors) Turboprop Fatality Risk per Region of Operator As at 13 Jan 2017 CIS EUR 2.60 2016 0.00 2016 0.00 2015 NAM 0.00 2015 3.96 2011-2015 0.50 2016 0.07 2011-2015 NASIA 2015 0.49 MENA 0.00 2016 0.45 2011-2015 0.00 2016 5.11 2015 0.00 2015 2.32 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 3.28 2011-2015 0.00 2016 ASPAC

0.00 2015 1.72 2016 AFI 1.70 2011-2015 0.68 2015 0.00 2016 World IATA Members 1.07 2011-2015 1.62 2015 2016 0.65 0.69 2015Accidents Update:0.55 As at 30 0.59SepJune 2016 2009 3.4312 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 1.10 0.40 Fatality Risk

Note: (1) The area of the bubble indicates the number of fatalities associated with the particular accident category, the value is displayed (2) Fatality Risk: number of full-loss equivalents per 1 million flights (3) Accidents not involving fatalities are displayed on this graph as black circles Top Risks – Focused on Fatalities

Historic: Loss of Control In Flight (LOC-I) Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) Approach and Landing Accidents (ALAR)

Emerging: Mid Air Collision (MID) Due to LHDs and TCAS RAs Focus on LOC-I

 2010: US CAST Airplane State Awareness

 After Colgan Accident

 Airplane state awareness defined in two categories:

 Attitude (roll and pitch angles and rates): often leads to LOC-I via unrecovered roll excursion

 Energy (airspeed, vertical speed, altitude, power setting, and configuration): often leads to LOC-I via unrecovered stall

 Joint Safety Analysis Team: Analysis of 18 events Summary of Significant Themes Across All Events

Formosa Saab 340 x x x x x x x 7 Korean Air 747-200F x x x x x x 6 Flash Airlines 737-300 x x x x x x x x 8 737-400 x x x x x x x x x x 10 Kenya Airways 737-800 x x x x x x x 7 Aeroflot-Nord 737-500 x x x x x x x x x x x 11 Gulf Air A320 x x x x x x 6 Icelandair 757-200 (Oslo) x x x x x x 6 Armavia A320 x x x x x x x 7 Icelandair 757-200 (Baltimore) x x x x x x x x x 9 Midwest Express 717 x x x x x x x 7 Colgan Air DHC-8-Q400 x x x x x x x x x x 10 Provincial Airlines DHC-8 x x x x x x x 7 Thomsonfly 737-300 x x x x x x x x 8 West Caribbean MD-82 x x x x x x x x x x 10 XL Airways A320 x x x x x x x x x 9 Turkish Airlines 737-800 x x x x x x x 7 Empire Air ATR-42 x x x x x x x 7 Overall 17 7 10 6 12 6 18 9 14 14 17 12 • SE 192 Low Airspeed Alerting • Incorporate existing service bulletins to install low airspeed aural alerting in the U.S. fleet

• SE 194 SOP Effectiveness and Adherence • Review and update SOPs to align with latest CAST, manufacturer, and ICAO recommendations • Assess and revise SOPs based on feedback from data monitoring programs • SE 196 Enhanced Upset Recovery Training, Including Approach-to-Stall • New approach-to-stall recovery procedures and realistic scenarios, including autoflight ON • Upset prevention & recovery, including unreliable airspeed • SE 197 Training for Non-Normal Situations • Focus on flying the airplane first

• SE 198 Scenario-Based Training for Go- Arounds • Go-arounds for other than decision height • Complicating factors (trim, light weight, entry into clouds) • SE 199 Enhanced Crew Resource Management • Focus on pilot monitoring duties

http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Portal:CAST_SE_Plan  Rapid positive change is possible if these Safety Enhancement Initiatives are implemented  IATA is promoting the implementation with airlines and ICAO Regional Aviation Safety Groups  APRAST  PARAST  MIDRAST Thank You Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Jan EUR West Atlantic Sweden CRJ200 Jet HL 2 - - Jan LATAM Passaredo Transportes Aereos ATR72 Turboprop SD - - - Jan MENA Zagros Airlines MD-80 Jet HL - - - Feb LATAM GOL Linhas Aereas B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar NAM UPS Airlines B767-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar ASPAC True Aviation Bangladesh An-26 Turboprop HL 3 - - Mar ASPAC Aircraft Sales & Services B1900 Turboprop SD - - - Mar LATAM TAM A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar MENA Flydubai B737-800 Jet HL 62 Yes Yes Mar EUR Cityjet RJ-85 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar NAM JetBlue Airways E190 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar CIS Halyk Air F100 Jet SD - No No Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Apr EUR Air Vallee F50 Turboprop SD - No No Apr LATAM TAME E190 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes Apr NAM EVAS Air Charters B1900 Turboprop SD - No No Apr ASPAC B737-800 Jet SD - No No May EUR Turkish Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes May NASIA MIAT - Mongolian Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes May NAM American Airlines A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes May EUR Air France A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes May MENA EgyptAir A320 Jet HL 66 Yes Yes May CIS Silk Way Airlines An-12 Turboprop HL 7 - - May ASPAC Korean Air B777-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes May MENA Saudia A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes May EUR Vueling Airlines A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Jun AFI South Supreme Airlines An-30 Turboprop SD - No No Jun NAM UPS MD-11 Jet HL - Yes Yes Jun CIS Ayk Avia An-32 Turboprop HL - No No Jun MENA Mahan Air BAE146 Jet SD - Yes Yes Jun ASPAC Air India A319 Jet SD - Yes Yes Jun AFI Busy Bee Congo Do228 Turboprop SD - No No Jun ASPAC Airlines B777-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes Jul ASPAC Nok Air DHC8-400 Turboprop SD - No No Jul EUR Germania A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes Jul MENA Royal Air Maroc ATR72 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes Aug MENA Emirates Airlines B777-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes Aug EUR ASL Airlines Hungary B737-400 Jet HL - No No Aug ASPAC T’was Air B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Aug CIS Krasavia Yak-42 Jet SD - No No Aug CIS -TU Tu-204 Jet SD - No No Aug NAM Southwest Airlines B737-700 Jet SD - No No Sep ASPAC Service B737-300 Jet HL - No No Sep MENA Iran Air F100 Jet SD - Yes Yes Sep NAM Commutair DHC8-200 Turboprop SD - No Yes

Sep ASPAC Yeti Airlines Jetstream 41 Turboprop SD - No No Sep ASPAC Cebu Pacific Airlines ATR72 Turboprop SD - No No Sep MENA Iran Air A310-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes Sep LATAM Southern Air Charter B1900 Turboprop SD - No No Oct EUR Vueling Airlines A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes Oct CIS Polar Airlines An-26 Turboprop HL - No No Oct LATAM Sterna Linhas Aereas A300 Jet SD - No No Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Oct EUR White Airways ATR72 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes Oct LATAM FlyMex 328JET Jet SD - No No Oct AFI Ethiopian Airlines DHC8-400 Turboprop HL - Yes Yes Oct NAM American Airlines B767-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes Oct NAM FedEx DC-10 Jet HL - Yes Yes Oct ASPAC Trigana Air Services DHC-4T Turboprop HL 4 No No Nov NAM American Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes Nov LATAM LAMIA Bolivia RJ-85 Jet HL 71 No No Dec NAM Key Lime Air Metro III Turboprop HL 1 No No Dec ASPAC Pakistan International Airlines ATR 42 Turboprop HL 47 Yes Yes Dec MENA Safi Airways B737-400 Jet SD - Yes Yes Dec EUR SAS CRJ900 Jet SD - Yes Yes Dec LATAM Aerosucre Colombia B727-200 Jet HL 5 No No Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Dec ASPAC ATR72 Turboprop SD - No No