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Power Sharing, Negotiated Settlements and the Logic
REBELS WITH A CAUSE: POWER SHARING, NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS AND THE LOGIC OF PREEMPTIVE DEFECTION By Chelsea Blake Johnson A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science in the Graduate Division of the University of California, Berkeley Committee in charge: Associate Professor Leonardo R. Arriola, Chair Associate Professor Jason Wittenberg Assistant Professor Aila Matanock Professor Ann Swidler Fall 2015 © Copyright by Chelsea Blake Johnson 2015 All Rights Reserved Abstract Rebels with a Cause: Power Sharing, Negotiated Settlements, And the Logic of Preemptive Defection By Chelsea Blake Johnson Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Berkeley Professor Leonardo R. Arriola, Chair Why are some negotiated settlements successful at resolving intrastate conflict, while others fail? Are settlements involving agreement to share power more effective and, if so, why have conclusions about power sharing been so mixed? I theorize in this project that power-sharing guarantees improve the prospects for a peaceful settlement by reducing the stakes of winning post-conflict elections, thereby increasing the likelihood that rebels will willingly demobilize. Contrary to the preeminent model of bargaining for peace in the literature, I posit that the costs of complying with a negotiated settlement are asymmetrical. For rebels, compliance means forfeiting military capacity and bargaining power. In contrast, the government never concedes its monopoly on the use of force and, therefore, always retains the option of resorting to military action. Given this, and the risk of competing against an entrenched incumbent with an electoral advantage, it is a rational strategy for rebels to resist demobilization until expectations of future benefits are sufficiently high. -
Independents in Australian Parliaments
The Age of Independence? Independents in Australian Parliaments Mark Rodrigues and Scott Brenton* Abstract Over the past 30 years, independent candidates have improved their share of the vote in Australian elections. The number of independents elected to sit in Australian parliaments is still small, but it is growing. In 2004 Brian Costar and Jennifer Curtin examined the rise of independents and noted that independents ‘hold an allure for an increasing number of electors disenchanted with the ageing party system’ (p. 8). This paper provides an overview of the current representation of independents in Australia’s parliaments taking into account the most recent election results. The second part of the paper examines trends and makes observations concerning the influence of former party affiliations to the success of independents, the representa- tion of independents in rural and regional areas, and the extent to which independ- ents, rather than minor parties, are threats to the major parities. There have been 14 Australian elections at the federal, state and territory level since Costar and Curtain observed the allure of independents. But do independents still hold such an allure? Introduction The year 2009 marks the centenary of the two-party system of parliamentary democracy in Australia. It was in May 1909 that the Protectionist and Anti-Socialist parties joined forces to create the Commonwealth Liberal Party and form a united opposition against the Australian Labor Party (ALP) Government at the federal level.1 Most states had seen the creation of Liberal and Labor parties by 1910. Following the 1910 federal election the number of parties represented in the House * Dr Mark Rodrigues (Senior Researcher) and Dr Scott Brenton (2009 Australian Parliamentary Fellow), Politics and Public Administration Section, Australian Parliamentary Library. -
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NSW Legislative Council Elections 1995 by Antony Green NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Dr David Clune (230 2484), Manager Ms Honor Figgis (230 2768) Research Officer, Law Dr Gareth Griffith (230 2356) Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government Ms Fiona Manning (230 3085) Research Office, Law/Social Issues Mr Stewart Smith (230 2798) Research Officer, Environment/Science Ms Marie Swain (230 2003) Research Officer, Law Mr John Wilkinson (230 2006) Research Officer, Economics ISSN 1325-4456 ISBN O 7310 5953 0 © 1996 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. June 1996 Background Paper is published by the NSW Parliamentary Library The Author Antony Green is well known as the Election Analyst for ABC-Television, and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since 1989. He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. He has produced previously a number of major studies on NSW elections for the Parliamentary Library. -
Proportional Representation in Theory and Practice the Australian Experience
Proportional Representation in Theory and Practice The Australian Experience Glynn Evans Department of Politics and International Relations School of Social Sciences The University of Adelaide June 2019 Table of Contents Abstract ii Statement of Authorship iii Acknowledgements iv Preface vi 1. Introduction 1 2. District Magnitude, Proportionality and the Number of 30 Parties 3. District Magnitude and Partisan Advantage in the 57 Senate 4. District Magnitude and Partisan Advantage in Western 102 Australia 5. District Magnitude and Partisan Advantage in South Eastern Jurisdictions 132 6. Proportional Representation and Minor Parties: Some 170 Deviating Cases 7. Does Proportional Representation Favour 204 Independents? 8. Proportional Representation and Women – How Much 231 Help? 9. Conclusion 247 Bibliography 251 Appendices 260 i Abstract While all houses of Australian parliaments using proportional representation use the Single Transferable Vote arrangement, district magnitudes (the numbers of members elected per division) and requirements for casting a formal vote vary considerably. Early chapters of this thesis analyse election results in search for distinct patterns of proportionality, the numbers of effective parties and partisan advantage under different conditions. This thesis argues that while district magnitude remains the decisive factor in determining proportionality (the higher the magnitude, the more proportional the system), ballot paper numbering requirements play a more important role in determining the number of (especially) parliamentary parties. The general pattern is that, somewhat paradoxically, the more freedom voters have to choose their own preference allocations, or lack of them, the smaller the number of parliamentary parties. Even numbered magnitudes in general, and six member divisions in particular, provide some advantage to the Liberal and National Parties, while the Greens are disadvantaged in five member divisions as compared to six or seven member divisions. -
A8. Party Affiliations in the Legislative Assembly
App ENDIX 8: PA rt Y AFFILIAT IONS IN T HE LE G ISLA T IVE ASSEMBLY Year of Abolish ACT Australian Australian Independent Liberal Michael No Self Osborne Residents Total government Independent Rally election Self- greens Democrats Labor Party Moore Party group government Party Independent Coalition group1 1989 1 - - 52 - 43 - 34 - 45 17 1992 1 - - 8 - 66 2 - - - 17 1995 - 2 - 67 1 78 1 - - - 17 1998 - 1 - 6 - 79 1 - 210 - 17 2001 - 111 1 8 - 712 - - - - 17 2004 - 1 - 913 - 714 - - - - 17 2008 - 4 - 7 - 6 - - - - 17 1 Michael Moore Independent Group was known as the Moore Independents from the 1995 general election. 2 Mr Whalan resigned as a Member of the Legislative Assembly on 30 April 1990 and Mr Connolly was appointed as his replacement on 1 May 1990. 3 Mrs Nolan resigned from the Liberal Party on 17 October 1991 and sat as an Independent from 22 October 1991. She became a Member of the New Conservative Group on 19 November 1991. 4 Mr Prowse resigned from No Self Government Party on 3 December 1989 and became a Member of the Independents Group from 4 December 1989. He became an Independent from 1 May 1990, and a Member of the Liberal Party on 31 July 1990. Mr Duby resigned from the No Self Government Party and sat as a Member of the Independents Group from 4 December 1989. He became a Member of the Hare-Clark Independence Party on 19 November 1991. Ms Maher resigned from the No Self Government Party and sat as a Member of the Independents Group from 4 December 1989. -
Basket Weavers and True Believers the Middle Class Left and the ALP Leichhardt Municipality C
Basket Weavers and True Believers The Middle Class Left and the ALP Leichhardt Municipality c. 1970-1990 by Tony Harris A thesis presented to the University of New South Wales in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History Library Copy Sydney, Australia, 2002 © Tony Harris, 2002 Certificate of Originality. ii iii Acknowledgements This thesis is in large part based on oral history interviews and I wish to express my gratitude for the generous time given by informants, in participating in recorded interviews or in providing written responses. I also wish to thank the Australian Labor Party, New South Wales Branch for granting access to the Party’s archival sources at the Mitchell Library, State Library of New South Wales, as well as for communicating with local branch and electorate council secretaries on my behalf. Jack Bolton, David West, Robert Grieve and the late Greg Johnston generously made local branch records available and Sue Tracey of the NSW ALP Labor History group provided valuable advice. I would also like to acknowledge the assistance of the Federal Department of Administration and Finance in giving permission to access the records of the Glebe Project Office in the National Archives. Further thanks are due to a wide range of people who were of assistance. The staff of the State Library of NSW, including Rosemary Bloch, Jim Andrighetti and Arthur Easton. The archivists and librarians from the NSW Housing Department Library, Leichhardt Municipal Library and National Archives of Australia, Chester Hill. George Georgarkis and Dianne Walker at Leichhardt Council. -
Functioning of Democratic Institutions in Moldova
AS/Mon(2010)22 rev. 20 May 2010 amondoc22r_2010 or. Fr. Committee on the Honouring of Obligations and Commitments by Member States of the Council of Europe (Monitoring Committee) Functioning of democratic institutions in Moldova Information note by the co-rapporteurs on their fact-finding visit to Chisinau (5-6 April 2010) 1 Co-rapporteurs: Mrs Josette DURRIEU, France, Socialist Group, and Mr Egidijus VAREIKIS, Lithuania, Group of the European People's Party 1 This information note has been made public by decision of the Monitoring Committee dated 19 May 2010. F – 67075 Strasbourg Cedex | e-mail: [email protected] | Tel: + 33 3 88 41 2000 | Fax: +33 3 88 41 2733 AS/Mon(2010)22rev. 1. Introduction 1. On 17 March 2010, the Monitoring Committee held an exchange of views on the implementation of Resolutions 1666 and 1692 (2009) on the functioning of democratic institutions in Moldova. On that occasion we informed the committee of recent developments in Moldova, namely the fact that, since the resolutions were adopted, the institutional crisis in Moldova has continued after Parliament blocked the election of the President of the Republic. We also took note of the outcome of the discussions on the situation in Moldova within the European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission) at its 82nd session (12- 13 March 2010). In the light of recent political developments, the committee asked us to undertake a fact- finding visit to the country. 2. We therefore visited Moldova on 5 and 6 April 2010 to meet the main political players and consider possible ways out of the current crisis. -
PARTY RULES? Dilemmas of Political Party Regulation in Australia
PARTY RULES? Dilemmas of political party regulation in Australia PARTY RULES? Dilemmas of political party regulation in Australia Edited by Anika Gauja and Marian Sawer Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at press.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Party rules? : dilemmas of political party regulation in Australia / editors: Anika Gauja, Marian Sawer. ISBN: 9781760460761 (paperback) 9781760460778 (ebook) Subjects: Political parties--Australia. Political parties--Law and legislation--Australia. Political participation--Australia. Australia--Politics and government. Other Creators/Contributors: Gauja, Anika, editor. Sawer, Marian, 1946- editor. Dewey Number: 324.2994 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU Press. This edition © 2016 ANU Press Contents Figures . vii Tables . ix Abbreviations . xi Acknowledgements . xiii Contributors . xv 1 . Party rules: Promises and pitfalls . 1 Marian Sawer and Anika Gauja 2 . Resisting legal recognition and regulation: Australian parties as rational actors? . 37 Sarah John 3 . Party registration and political participation: Regulating small and ‘micro’ parties . .73 Norm Kelly 4 . Who gets what, when and how: The politics of resource allocation to parliamentary parties . 101 Yvonne Murphy 5 . Putting the cartel before the house? Public funding of parties in Queensland . 123 Graeme Orr 6 . More regulated, more level? Assessing the impact of spending and donation caps on Australian State elections . -
Power Sharing, Negotiated Settlements and the Logic
REBELS WITH A CAUSE: POWER SHARING, NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS AND THE LOGIC OF PREEMPTIVE DEFECTION By Chelsea Blake Johnson A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science in the Graduate Division of the University of California, Berkeley Committee in charge: Associate Professor Leonardo R. Arriola, Chair Associate Professor Jason Wittenberg Assistant Professor Aila Matanock Professor Ann Swidler Fall 2015 © Copyright by Chelsea Blake Johnson 2015 All Rights Reserved Abstract Rebels with a Cause: Power Sharing, Negotiated Settlements, And the Logic of Preemptive Defection By Chelsea Blake Johnson Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Berkeley Professor Leonardo R. Arriola, Chair Why are some negotiated settlements successful at resolving intrastate conflict, while others fail? Are settlements involving agreement to share power more effective and, if so, why have conclusions about power sharing been so mixed? I theorize in this project that power-sharing guarantees improve the prospects for a peaceful settlement by reducing the stakes of winning post-conflict elections, thereby increasing the likelihood that rebels will willingly demobilize. Contrary to the preeminent model of bargaining for peace in the literature, I posit that the costs of complying with a negotiated settlement are asymmetrical. For rebels, compliance means forfeiting military capacity and bargaining power. In contrast, the government never concedes its monopoly on the use of force and, therefore, always retains the option of resorting to military action. Given this, and the risk of competing against an entrenched incumbent with an electoral advantage, it is a rational strategy for rebels to resist demobilization until expectations of future benefits are sufficiently high. -
EFA AR 2010-11 Internal Text FINAL.Indd
ELEC TION FUNDING AUTHORITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES ANNUAL REPORT 2010/11 REPORT ANNUAL WALES OFNEWSOUTH AUTHORITY TION FUNDING Election Funding Authority of New South Wales 2010/11 ANNUAL REPORT Election Funding Authority of NSW Address: Level 25, 201 Kent Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Postal: GPO Box 4046 Sydney NSW 2001 Australia Telephone: +61 2 9290 5400 Fax: +61 2 9290 5410 Website: www.efa.nsw.gov.au Offi ce Hours: Monday - Friday, 9:00am - 5:00pm Our mission is to contribute to an impartial electoral system in NSW by providing transparent, effi cient and unbiased administration of public funding and disclosure legislation. ISSN 1320-8616 (Print) ISSN 1834-1748 (Online) © State of New South Wales through the Election Funding Authority of NSW 2011. No part of this report may be reproduced by any process, except in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. Please address all enquiries to the Election Funding Authority, Level 25 201 Kent Street, Sydney 2000. To the Premier The Hon Barry O’Farrell MP The Hon Barry O’Farrell MP Premier, Minister for Western Sydney Level 40 Governor Macquarie Tower 1 Farrer Place SYDNEY NSW 2000 31 October 2011 Dear Premier In accordance with Section 8 of the Annual Reports (Statutory Bodies) Act 1984, I submit for tabling in both Houses of Parliament, the report on the operations of the Election Funding Authority of NSW for the fi nancial year ended 30 June 2011. Yours sincerely Colin Barry Chairperson EEFAFA AARR 22010-11010-11 IInternalnternal ttext_FINAL.inddext_FINAL.indd 1 114/11/20114/11/2011 112:09:432:09:43 -
Dilemmas of Political Party Regulation in Australia
PARTY RULES? Dilemmas of political party regulation in Australia PARTY RULES? Dilemmas of political party regulation in Australia Edited by Anika Gauja and Marian Sawer Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at press.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Party rules? : dilemmas of political party regulation in Australia / editors: Anika Gauja, Marian Sawer. ISBN: 9781760460761 (paperback) 9781760460778 (ebook) Subjects: Political parties--Australia. Political parties--Law and legislation--Australia. Political participation--Australia. Australia--Politics and government. Other Creators/Contributors: Gauja, Anika, editor. Sawer, Marian, 1946- editor. Dewey Number: 324.2994 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU Press. This edition © 2016 ANU Press Contents Figures . vii Tables . ix Abbreviations . xi Acknowledgements . xiii Contributors . xv 1 . Party rules: Promises and pitfalls . 1 Marian Sawer and Anika Gauja 2 . Resisting legal recognition and regulation: Australian parties as rational actors? . 37 Sarah John 3 . Party registration and political participation: Regulating small and ‘micro’ parties . .73 Norm Kelly 4 . Who gets what, when and how: The politics of resource allocation to parliamentary parties . 101 Yvonne Murphy 5 . Putting the cartel before the house? Public funding of parties in Queensland . 123 Graeme Orr 6 . More regulated, more level? Assessing the impact of spending and donation caps on Australian State elections . -
The 1992 Papua New Guinea Election: Change and Continuity in Electoral Politics
Political and Social Change Monograph 23 The 1992 Papua New Guinea Election: Change and Continuity in Electoral Politics Edited by Yaw Saffu Department of Political and Social Change Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies Australian National University Canberra 1996 ii © Yaw Saffu and the several authors each in respect of the papers contributed by them; for the full list of the names of such copyright owners and the papers in respect of which they are the copyright owners see the Table of Contents of this volume. This work is copyright. Apart from any fair dealings for the purpose of study, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission. Enquiries may be made to the publisher. First published 1996, Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University. Printed and manufactured in Australia by Highland Press. Distributed by Department of Political and Social Change Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200 Australia (FAX: 61-6-249-5523) (e-mail:[email protected]) National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-publication entry The 1992 Papua New Guinea elections: change and continuity in electoral politics. Bibliography Includes index ISBN 0 7315 2318 0 1. Elections - Papua New Guinea. 2. Papua New Guinea - Politics and government - 1975-. I. Saffu, Yaw, 1943-. II. Australian National University. Research School of Pacific and Asian