Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Country Profile The Federal Republic of

Using the PMESII Construct

TRADOC G-27 Operational Environment Center Modeling & Simulation Directorate Fort Leavenworth, Kansas 66027

March 14, 2019

Prepared By: 2019 Update: Dr. Robert Arp, DoD Contractor, TRISA OE Lab Ms. Nicole Jobe, DoD Contractor, TRADOC G-27 OEC MSD Dr. Jumanne Donahue, DoD Contractor, TRISA OE Lab Mr. Luke Roth, DoD Contractor, TRADOC G-27 OEC MSD

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(U) Map of Nigeria

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(U) Snapshot Facts about Nigeria from CIA World Factbook

(U) Population: 203 million (’s most populous country, 7th most populous country in the world) (U) Population Growth Rate: 2.54% (Nigeria’s population is projected to grow from more than 186 million people in 2016 to 392 million in 2050, becoming the world’s fourth most populous country. (U) Total Land Area: 356,669 sq miles (923,768 sq km), twice the size of California (U) Capital: Abuja (city population 2.9 million) (U) Type of Government: Federal Republic (U) Independence from UK: October 1, 1960 (U) Constitution Enforced: October 1, 1963 (U) Current President: President Maj. Gen. (ret.) (since 29 May 2015) (U) Primary Ethnic Groups: Hausa, Fulani, Yoruba, Igbo, Ijaw, Kanuri, Ibibio, Tiv (U) Primary Languages: English (official), Hausa, Fulani, Yoruba, Igbo, over 500 other languages (U) Religions: Muslim 51%, Catholic 11.2%, Other Christian 35.7%, traditionist .9%, unspecified .5% (2013 est.) (U) Literacy: 59.6% (2015 est.) (U) Urban Dwellers 50% of population (U) Percentage of Poor: 70% below poverty line (2010 est.) (U) Revenues in 2012: $22 billion (U) Expenditures in 2012: $28 billion (U) GDP (PPP / OER): $444 billion / $267 billion (U) Debt in 2013: $13.4 billion (U) Economic Growth Rate: 7.4% (U) Inflation / Unemployment: 12.2% (rate) / 24% (rate) (U) Exports: $96 billion in 2012: Petroleum and petroleum products (95%), cocoa, rubber (U) Imports: $53 billion in 2012: machinery, chemicals, transport equipment, manufactured goods and live animals (U) Industry: 43% of GDP: crude oil, coal, tin, columbite, rubber products, wood, hides and skins, textiles, cement and other construction materials, footwear, chemicals, fertilizer, printing, ceramics, steel (U) Agriculture: 31% of GDP: cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, fish, cocoa, peanuts, cotton, palm oil, corn, rice, sorghum, millet, rubber, timber (U) Natural Resources: Hydropower, fertile land, gold, diamonds, petroleum, hardwoods, limestone, iron, copper, chromium ore, zinc, tungsten, mica, silver

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(U) Climate and Terrain: Equatorial in south, tropical in center, arid in north; southern lowlands merge into central hills and plateaus; mountains in southeast, plains in north

(U) PMESII Snapshots for the Federal Republic of Nigeria

(U) Political Snapshot

(U) Nigeria has a population of 203 million people and is Africa’s most populous country (CIA World Factbook). Since its independence from the United Kingdom on October 1, 1960, Nigeria has claimed itself to be a federal republic, but has shifted between military juntas and Westminster-style democratic governance throughout this timeframe. Present-day Nigeria can be divided roughly in half with Muslims who are concentrated mostly in the northern part in the 12 states and subject to Islamic shari’a law, and Christians and people with indigenous beliefs who mostly live in the south and central parts of the country—thus, Nigeria continues to experience longstanding ethnic and religious tensions. Kin-selective ethnocentrism, tribalism, and religious affiliation not only have bred violence and persecution, but also prevented the establishment of a universal, unified, federal power in Nigeria. Nigeria has ranked among the world’s most corrupt nations for decades, and Nigerians too have long been aware of extensive patronage systems. Since the end of military rule in 1999, however, rising public expectations for better governance under democracy and an expanding awareness of large-scale corruption has fueled demands for accountability and tangible benefits from the nation’s resources (“Nigeria: A Chronology of Key Events;” “Nigeria Profile”).

(U) Oil accounts for 95% of Nigeria’s export revenues, and Nigeria’s government continues to face the daunting task of reforming a petroleum-based economy, the spoils of which have been utilized institutionalizing democracy as well as being squandered through corruption and mismanagement. Political liberalization may have ushered in a return to civilian rule and more democratic processes in 1999, but in the absence of a military junta exercising its powers it also has allowed militants from religious and ethnic groups to pursue their demands through violence. Tens of thousands of people have died over the past few years in communal attacks led by the al-Qaeda ally, . Separatist aspirations have also been growing, prompting reminders of the bitter civil war over the breakaway Biafran republic in the late 1960s (Nwokpoku; Polgreen).

(U) The current President of Nigeria is President Maj. Gen. (ret.) Muhammadu BUHARI (since 29 May 2015) is a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Nigeria’s previous ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had a decently broad political base made up of Christians from the south and Muslims from the north. From an economic standpoint, the PDP supports free trade, open markets, privatization, deregulation, and overall enhancement of the role of the private sector in modernizing Nigeria. Concerning social issues, the PDP is fairly conservative, basing its positions on natural law kinds of arguments as well as religious grounds (Mazen). In 2006, for example, the PDP-dominated National Assembly sponsored a bill called the Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Act 2006 to outlaw same sex marriages, homosexual relationships, and UNCLASSIFIED | 4 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

other homosexual-related activities, making violations punishable up to 14 years in prison for “carnal knowledge against the order of nature.” The bill was passed into law on January 18, 2007. An updated version was signed into law on January 7, 2014 by President Jonathan (CIA World Factbook; Amnesty International; Bowcott).

(U) Even though Nigeria has some 25 registered political parties, as of April 2017 two political parties seem to have the most power and influence: the PDP and the APC. In the Senate, APC holds 66 seats, and PDP holds 43 seats. In the House of Representatives, the APC holds 225 and the PDP holds 125, while other parties hold 10 seats. Previously, while anticipating the 2015 elections so as to challenge the power and perceived corruption of the previous President Jonathan and the PDP, in February of 2013 the All Nigeria Peoples Party, the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, and the All Progressives Grand Alliance merged to form the APC. The APC’s Manifesto notes that they want to bring the following to Nigerians: affordable health care; economic growth; better transportation; free education; and, most importantly, an end to the rampant and systemic corruption present at all levels of the Nigerian government (CIA World Factbook; All Progressives Congress).

(U) Military Snapshot

(U) Nigeria’s defense budget is 0.43% of Nigeria’s total GDP. The Nigerian Armed Forces (NAF) has around 200,000 active and 300,000 reserve personnel in three armed services: Army, Navy, and Air Force. The is the largest branch of the Nigerian Armed Forces with some 100,000 professional personnel. Besides numerous standard departments that are found in any army, the Nigerian Army’s primary structures include (headquartered in ), 2nd Division (Ibadan), (Jos), 81st Division (Lagos), 82nd Division (), and the Training and Doctrine Command. The Nigerian Navy is among the largest navies on the African continent, consisting of some 90,000 personnel, including those of the Coast Guard. The Nigerian Navy has its naval headquarters in Abuja, along with operational commands in Lagos, Calabar, and Brass Island in the state of Bayelsa. There are also five operational bases, five forward operational bases, two dockyards located in Lagos and Port Harcourt, two fleets based in Lagos and Calabar, a training facility headquarters in Lagos, and naval training facilities spread all over Nigeria. The Nigerian Air Force is one of the largest air forces on the African continent, possessing approximately 84 helicopters and 84 aircraft on 53 serviceable airports around the country. It consists of some 10,000 personnel and has major bases in the cities of Benin, Enugu, Jos, Kaduna, Kainji, , Makurdi, Minna, and Shasha (CIA World Factbook; Military Periscope; Global Firepower).

(U) Since 1999, a recurring problem for the NAF (the Army in particular) has to do with overly aggressive responses to local violence. NAF personnel—most of whom lack not only appropriate training and professionalism, but also an ethical concern for the duties associated with their profession and general respect for the common citizen—are almost always brought in to an area of Nigeria to respond to violent outbreaks. However, the NAF has consistently responded in a brutal fashion, operating with impunity, often killing innocents and destroying physical infrastructure, which in turn (ironically) increases local support for violent extremist groups like UNCLASSIFIED | 5 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

Boko Haram—and hence, more violence—and decreases support for the NAF and the Nigerian government in general (Modern Ghana). This blogger’s comment speaks volumes: “Nigeria’s military is the country’s own worst enemy. Apparently you do not need terrorists to terrorize citizens—the army does it better.”

(U) Nigeria’s most corrupt organization is the Nigeria Police Force (NPF). In addition, the NPF suffers from a general inefficiency due to the lack of modern equipment as well as the low level of education and an even lower morale of police recruits, who are poorly housed and very poorly paid. There are more than 350,000 members of the NPF—which has its headquarters in Abuja— with some 75% of them patrolling in the Capital Region of Abuja. The police have extensive powers, including the ability to arrest without a warrant, conduct searches, seize property, and detain suspects at their own discretion. The most common venue for extortion occurs at police roadblocks, ostensibly put in place to combat crime. In practice these checkpoints become a lucrative criminal venture for the police who routinely demand bribes from drivers and passengers alike (Human Rights Watch).

(U) There have been those in Nigeria who have attempted to curb the rampant corruption in the NPF and Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has been spearheading that movement. From 2003 to 2007, for example, the EFCC charged NPF police commissioners, as well as state governors, prominent bankers, high-ranking political party members, and even church ministers with crimes such as bribery, money laundering, racketeering, fraud, scamming, embezzlement, negligent homicide, “adultery unbecoming a state professional,” and murder. The EFCC issued thousands of indictments and achieved upwards of 270 convictions from 2003 to 2007. Even the Inspector General of the NPF at the time, Mustafa “Tafa” Adebayo Balogun, was charged with 70 cases of fraud, was convicted, jailed, and forced to pay restitution of £150 million (around $164 million) under a plea bargain in 2005 (The Guardian).

(U) Economic Snapshot

(U) Nigeria’s GDP/PPP for 2017 was $1.121 trillion, up from around $440 billion in 2012 and its GDP/OER for 2017 was $376.4 billion, up from around $263 billion in 2012. For 2013, Nigeria’s GDP/PPP and GDP went up to $444 billion and $267 billion respectively. This indicates a steady increase in GDP/PPP and GDP/OER. As of 2017, 323.5 Nigerian naira are equal to one US dollar. This is up considerably from March, 2014, when 164 naria are equivalent to one US dollar. This shows the exchange rate has nearly doubled in just three years. Industry in Nigeria accounts for some 43% of the GDP, and major industrial products include crude oil, coal, tin, columbite, rubber products, wood, hides and skins, textiles, cement and other construction materials, footwear, chemicals, fertilizer, printing, ceramics, and steel. Agriculture accounts for around 31% of the GDP, and major agricultural products include cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, fish, cocoa, peanuts, cotton, palm oil, corn, rice, sorghum, millet, rubber, and timber (CIA World Factbook; The World Bank).

(U) Nigeria’s revenues in 2017 were $12.92 billion with $19.54 billion in expenditures. This is in contrast to 2012, where its revenues were $22 billion, while expenditures were $28 billion. Its UNCLASSIFIED | 6 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

total debt in 2013 was around $13.4 billion. Nigeria generated $1.146 billion in exports in 2017, and $96 billion in exports in 2012, to include petroleum and petroleum products (accounting for 95% of that amount), cocoa, and rubber. Nigeria simultaneously accrued $32.67 billion in imports in 2017, significantly less than the $53 billion in imports in 2012, to include machinery, manufactured goods, and live animals. Natural resources include hydropower, fertile land, gold, diamonds, hardwoods, limestone, iron, copper, chromium ore, zinc, tungsten, mica, silver, and petroleum (CIA World Factbook; The World Bank).

(U) Strong economic growth in recent years (with the exception of a recession in 2016 – a result of lower oil prices and production) has significantly improved the employment rates for Nigeria, resulting in a 16.5% unemployment rate in 2017, down from a general unemployment rate of around 24% in 2012. Nigeria’s inflation rate has increased from 12.2% in 2012 to 16.5% in 2017. While poverty rates in the coastal states are typically under 40%, they rise above 70% in many parts of central Nigeria and particularly in the far north. Also, relative to other African countries, the development of agriculture is pronounced: there are relatively few areas of agricultural potential that are not already being tapped (CIA World Factbook; The World Bank).

(U) Nigeria suffers from what economists call the paradox of plenty or resource curse, namely, a situation in a country where there is plenty of wealth in minerals, fuels, and other natural resources but at the same time there exists less economic growth and worse development outcomes than those countries that are not as wealthy in these resources. The main source of this dissonance—a vast wealth in natural resources coexisting with extreme personal poverty— is not hard to pinpoint, and is a recurring thorn in the side of Nigerian politics and society: corruption. Nigeria reports that 80% of its energy revenues flow to the government, while 16% covers operational costs and the remaining 4% goes to investors. However, it has been estimated that, as a result of corruption, 80% of energy revenues benefit a mere 1% of the population (CIA World Factbook; The World Bank).

(U) At the end of 2013, oil prices in Nigeria remained generally strong, relieving some short-term macroeconomic pressures and strengthening the confidence of investors. Structural reforms having to do with power and agriculture appear to be paying at least some dividends, too, even if the primary potential impact of these measures is in the longer term. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) was created in 1977 to oversee the regulation of the oil and natural gas industries, with secondary responsibilities for upstream and downstream developments. Under that structure, the majority of Nigeria’s major oil and natural gas projects were funded through joint ventures between international oil companies and the NNPC, where NNPC was the majority shareholder. The Petroleum Industry Bill, which was initially proposed to Nigeria’s National Assembly in 2008 and reintroduced near the end of 2013, was expected to change the organizational structure and fiscal terms governing the oil and natural gas sectors, if it became law. The major international players in Nigeria’s oil and natural gas sectors are Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, and Eni. The Senate passed the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) in May of 2017, which unbundled the NNPC, moving its assets and liabilities into three new entities. The bill significantly reduced the powers of the Nigerian President and the Minister of Petroleum Resources in their control over the oil and gas sectors (Vanguard, Global Citizen). UNCLASSIFIED | 7 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

(U) Nigeria has the second largest amount of proven crude oil reserves in Africa; however, constant security problems coupled with regulatory uncertainty have contributed to decreased exploration activity in past years. Crude oil production in Nigeria reached its peak of 2.44 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2005, but began to decline significantly as violence from militant groups surged, forcing many companies to withdraw staff and shut down production. Oil production recovered somewhat after 2009-2010, but still remains lower than its peak because of ongoing supply disruptions. 2016 and 2017 were very low production years, but 2018 showed a slight recovery. Nigeria has a crude oil distillation capacity of 445,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). Despite having a refinery capacity that exceeds domestic demand, the country must actually import some of its petroleum because refinery utilization rates are low (Global Citizen; Trading Economics; The World Bank).

(U) Social Snapshot

(U) As Africa’s most populous country with 203 million people, Nigeria is made up of three large ethnic groups, the Hausa-Fulani (34% of population), Yoruba (14%), and Igbo (14%). There are also the Ijaw (2%), Kanuri (1.7%), Ibibio (2.2%), and Tiv (2.2%), with the rest of the groups making up the remaining 28.9% of the nearly 250 tribes. In 2012, the remainder comprised only 12% of the total. Most Nigerians speak more than one language. The country’s official language is English and that is widely spoken. Some 400 native Nigerian languages are also spoken (CIA World Factbook; The World Bank; Government of Nigeria, “People”).

(U) The and the Fulani people in Nigeria are usually grouped together as a result of their united efforts in the Fulani War (1804-1808). The Hausa people are the largest ethnic group in and one of the largest ethnic groups in Africa. The Fulani are traditionally a nomadic, pastoralist, trading people. They herd cattle, goats, and sheep across the vast dry hinterlands of their domain, keeping somewhat separate from the local agricultural populations. The Kanuri people live mostly in Bornu state in northeastern Nigeria, southeast , western , and northern . Like the Hausa-Fulani peoples, the Kanuri are Muslims, having mostly converted in the 11th Century (OSC; Government of Nigeria, “People”).

(U) The are the largest non-Muslim ethnic group in Nigeria, making up around 14%, or 28 million, of the total population. Another 14% (28 million people) claim Igbo ethnic identity in Nigeria. The majority of these individuals live in the states of Anambra, Benue, and Imo in the middle southeastern area of the country. Probably due to their natural location in southern Nigerian nearer to ports and trade routes where they made constant contact with Christians, the Igbo became overwhelmingly Christian under colonization. By the mid-20th Century, the had developed a strong sense of ethnic identity. The economic, ethnic, cultural, and religious tensions mainly between the Hausa and the Igbo peoples led to a civil war (also known as the Biafran War) that lasted from 1966 to 1970, with around 1 million civilians dying from starvation and the fighting (OSC; Government of Nigeria, “People”). (U) Present-day Nigeria can be divided roughly in half between the Muslim Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri peoples who are concentrated mostly in the northern part of the country in the 12 states UNCLASSIFIED | 8 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

subject to Islamic shari’a law, and the Christian Yoruba, Igbo, Ijaw, Ibibio, and Tiv peoples (also other groups with Christian or indigenous beliefs) who mostly live in the south and central parts of the country. The city of Jos sits at the center of the so-called , a cultural and religious fault line that divides the north from the south. The middle belt is a melting pot where the major ethnic groups of Nigeria usually coexist peacefully; given this religious divide; however, Nigeria has been wracked by periodic episodes of violence for decades (OSC; Government of Nigeria, “People”).

(U) There are a few prominent non-state actors in Nigeria today: Boko Haram, the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN), and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Boko Haram was founded by Mohammed Yusuf in 2002 and, since then, is believed to be responsible for displacing around 2.6 million Nigerians and causing some 15,000 deaths (low estimate of civilian deaths alone; military and police not included) due to fighting, bombing, shooting, hanging, beheading, slashing with machetes, and stoning. Previously, these figures were 100,000 and 10,000, respectively, so the situation has worsened considerably. The group’s mayhem and membership have increased exponentially —between 1,000 and 4,000 members by the end of 2012; at least 15,000 members in early 2015 and an unknown number since then. The group continues to violently oppose any political or social activity associated with Western society (voting, secular schooling, and Western dress). Abubakar Shekau (AKA, Darul Tawheed) is believed to be the current leader of Boko Haram (CIA World Factbook; Onuoha; Thomson Reuters; Washington Post; Amnesty International).

(U) A quick inspection of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria’s (IMN) website shows anti-US and Western ideologies, pro-al-Qaeda positions, Islamic jihadist sentiments, and even a defense of the claim that it is actually the US that is the quintessential terrorist. Whereas Boko Haram is mainly a Sunni organization, the IMN is a group made up of mainly Shi`a Muslims. Although the IMN does not promote violence, its imams preach that the West conspires to “dominate minds and resources” of Muslims by converting them to Christianity and secularizing them, Jews are the “lowest creatures on earth, the children of monkeys and pigs,” the West fabricated the 9/11 attacks on the US, and the Nigerian government created Boko Haram to “justify Western- Christian occupation of the Muslim world and northern Nigeria” (Zenn).

(U) Boko Haram and IMN do share similar doctrines, including: exploiting issues that are sensitive to Muslims; viewing the secular state of Nigeria as illegitimate; blaming the Nigerian government for poverty of the masses while proposing an Islamic system as the solution; demonizing the US and its allies; comparing their conflict against the Nigerian government to conflicts between the US and Muslims in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; targeting northern Nigeria’s unemployed youths for membership; claiming the legacy of Shaihu Usman dan Fodio (1754-1817), who was the founder of the in 1809, as well as a religious teacher, writer, and Islamic promoter; in spite of claiming dan Fodio’s legacy, still condemning dan Fodio’s heirs—for example, the present Sultan of Sokoto—as not being “pure” or “true” or “real” Muslims, or true to the basic tenets of . (U) The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has roots in the Movement for the Survival of the (MOSOP), a group involved in non-violent resistance to, and UNCLASSIFIED | 9 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

protest of, the Nigerian government’s oil policy and the activities of oil companies in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria in the late 1980s. Between 1990 and 1995, MOSOP became more radicalized and ultimately violent, resulting in the arrest, trial, and execution of key members. It is believed that members of MOSOP formed MEND in the 2004 – 2005 timeframe. Since that time, MEND conducted operations of increasing complexity, sophistication, and effect, including: kidnapping for ransom, as in their very first public display against Royal Dutch Shell Oil in 2005; swarm-based maneuvers where guerrillas use speed boats in the Niger Delta’s swamps to attack targets in rapid succession, as in their second public display on January 15, 2006 when members of MEND killed at least 17 people in a boat raid against Royal Dutch Shell Oil; infrastructure sabotage and destruction; direct combat action against the Nigerian military; raids on institutions of governance; and surveillance and information operations. In 2010 MEND carried out an Independence Day bombing which killed more than a dozen people and eventually saw the leader, Henry Okah, jailed for a 24 year sentence in South Africa. In 2014 MEND called a ceasefire, but Niger Delta militants’ attacks still continue to plague Nigeria’s oil production, cutting it by as much as one third in 2016 (Thompson Reuters; Premium Times; Amazize; Reporters).

(U) Infrastructure Snapshot

(U) Among its African peers, Nigeria has relatively advanced power, road, rail, and information and communications technology (ICT) networks that cover the national territory quite extensively. Reforms are ongoing in the power, ports, ICT, and domestic air transport sectors. But challenges persist. The power sector’s operational efficiency and cost recovery has been among the worst in Africa, supplying only about half of what is required (US Energy Information Administration; NCC). The water and sanitation sector operates very inefficiently, with low and declining levels of piped water coverage. Irrigation development is also low relative to the country’s substantial potential. In the transport sector, Nigeria’s road networks are in poor condition due to a lack of maintenance. The country also has a poor record for air transport safety (Igbuzor; Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program).

(U) The concentration of people in the cities has created enormous sanitary problems, particularly improper sewage disposal, water shortages, and poor drainage. Large heaps of domestic refuse spill across narrow streets, causing traffic delays, while the dumping of garbage along streambeds constitutes a major health hazard and has contributed to the floods that have often plagued Ibadan, Lagos, and other cities during the rainy season. Malaria is still a major cause of death, and at the beginning of the 21st Century, AIDS is now becoming increasingly significant in the country (WHO). The adult prevalence rate is 2.8%, making it 20th in the world. There are an estimated 3.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS as of 2017, which is 2nd in the world, and there were 150,000 deaths of HIV/AIDS in 2017, making it 1st in the world for this statistic. By comparison, this seems to indicate that Nigeria handles the health of its citizens living with HIV/AIDS more poorly than other countries. Overcrowding in the cities has caused slums to spread and shantytown suburbs to emerge in most of the larger urban centers (“National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) Nigeria”). Most houses are built by individuals, and, because banks do not normally lend money for home construction, most of these individuals must rely on their savings. A federal housing program provides funds for the construction of low- UNCLASSIFIED | 10 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

cost housing for low- and middle-income workers in the state capitals, local government headquarters, and other large towns (CIA World Factbook, Igbuzor).

(U) The poor condition of health and health care in Nigeria is one of the factors responsible for an average life expectancy of 57.5 years for males and 61.1 years for females, an improvement from the previous figures of 55 for males and 56 for females but still low enough to rank Nigeria as 211th in the world in this figure. In 2014, health expenditures were 3.7% of GDP, down from 5.1% of the GDP in 2010. There is no nationwide health insurance or social welfare system in Nigeria. A fair number of commercial firms and factories provide free medical services for their employees and, in some cases, their immediate families. Civil servants are entitled to free medical care in government-financed hospitals. Most elderly Nigerians and the unemployed depend on the extended family, which serves as the traditional social welfare system. There are numerous private hospitals, clinics, and maternity centers; however, there are only 0.5 hospital beds and 0.4 physicians for every 1,000 persons in Nigeria. Medical services are inadequate, many hospitals do not have enough medical personnel, and drugs are scarce; often surgical patients must supply their own equipment for operations. Rural areas are extremely undersupplied (CIA World Factbook, WHO).

(U) Information Snapshot

(U) In common with the rest of Africa, Nigeria has made good progress in expanding its cellular signal coverage. Nigeria also stands out among African countries for its creation of a competitive fixed-line sector. In fact, Nigeria’s teledensity (the number of telephone connections for every hundred individuals) was near 70% in 2006, 80% in 2009, and 91.4% at the start of 2014. The figure rose 19.13% in just one year (between November 2017 and 2018) for a total of 120.79%. It has 76% cellular subscription, with nearly 145 million subscribers as of 2017. Nigeria’s media scene is one of the most vibrant in Africa. Most internet users are young, educated and urban. Facebook is the most popular social media platform, and BBC Hausa’s Facebook page is a popular destination. State radio and TV have near-national coverage and operate at federal and regional levels. All 36 states run at least one radio network and a TV station. There are hundreds of radio stations and terrestrial TV networks, as well as cable and direct-to-home satellite offerings (CIA World Factbook; NCC; Nigerian Television Authority; Adepetun).

(U) Radio is a key source of information. International broadcasters, including the BBC, are popular. However, rebroadcasting of foreign radio stories/stations is banned. There is a network of 40 government-controlled national radio stations that typically carry their own programs except for news broadcasts. Television viewing is concentrated in urban areas. Legislation limits the amount of foreign programming that stations can show, and outlets cannot air foreign news. There are more than 100 national and local press titles, some of them state-owned. They include well-respected dailies, tabloids, and publications which champion ethnic interests (NCC; CIA World Factbook). The lively private press often criticizes the government. Reporters without Borders ranked Nigeria 126th out of 179 countries in its 2012 world press freedom index, citing the “almost daily arrests and assaults” of journalists. This score improved slightly by 2018 to 119th in the world but they note “it is difficult to cover stories involving politics, terrorism, and financial UNCLASSIFIED | 11 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

embezzlement by the powerful. Journalists are often threatened, subjected to physical violence, or denied access to information by government officials, police, and sometimes the public itself” (Reporters without Borders).

(U) Having said all of this, the primary way in which information gets communicated in Nigeria is through word-of-mouth in personal contact (1) at the marketplace, whether this be a rural bazaar or the urban supermarket, and (2) at churches/mosques where religious leaders command respect in village communities and play a key role in spreading knowledge and forming opinions.

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Bibliography (U)

(U) Works Cited

(U) Adepetun, Adeyemi. “Nigeria Grows Teledensity by 19.1% in One Year.” The Guardian, 28 December 2018. Web. 29 Jan 2019. https://guardian.ng/technology/nigeria-grows-teledensity-by-19-1-in-one-year/

(U) Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program. “Interactive Map of Nigeria.” Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program, 15 Jan. 2014. Web. 5 Mar. 2014. http://infrastructureafrica.opendataforafrica.org/

(U) All Progressives Congress. “Manifesto of the All Progressives Congress.” All Progressives Congress, 13 Feb. 2013. Web. 6 Feb. 2014. https://www.allprogressivescongress.org/manifesto/

(U) Amazize, Emma. “MEND Declares Ceasefire in N-Delta.” Vanguard. 31 May 2014. Web. 29 January 2019. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/05/mend-declares-ceasefire-n-delta/

(U) Amnesty International. “Nigeria’s Proposed Ban on Same-sex Partnerships an Assault on Human Rights.” Amnesty International, 28 Jan. 2009. Web. 6 Feb. 2014. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2009/01/nigeria039s-proposed-ban-same-sex- partnerships-assault-human-rights-20090128/

(U) BBC News. “Nigeria: A Chronology of Key Events.” BBC News, 27 Nov. 2013. Web. 28 Jan. 2014. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13951696

(U) BBC News. “Nigeria Profile.” BBC News, 27 Nov. 2013. Web. 28 Jan. 2014. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13949550

(U) Bowcott, Owen. “Nigeria Arrests Dozens as Anti-gay Law Comes into Force.” The Guardian. 14 Jan. 2014. 10 Feb. 2014. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/14/nigeria-arrests-dozens-anti-gay-law

(U) Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). “The World Factbook: Nigeria.” Central Intelligence Agency. Undated. Web. 29 January 2019. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

(U) Global Citizen. “Oil in Nigeria: A Cure or Curse?” Global Citizen, 11 Mar. 2013. Web. 13 Feb. 2014. https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/oil-in-nigeria-a-cure-or-curse/

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(U) Global Firepower. “Nigeria’s Military Strength.” Global Firepower, 15 Nov. 2012. Web. 4 Feb. 2014. https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=nigeria

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(U) Trading Economics. “Nigeria Crude Oil Production.” TradingEconomics, 8 March 2019. Web. 8 March 2019. https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/crude-oil-production

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(U) The World Bank. “Nigeria: Overview.” The World Bank, 01 Nov. 2018. Web. 01 Nov. 2018. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/overview

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