Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Country Profile The Federal Republic of Nigeria Using the PMESII Construct TRADOC G-27 Operational Environment Center Modeling & Simulation Directorate Fort Leavenworth, Kansas 66027 March 14, 2019 Prepared By: 2019 Update: Dr. Robert Arp, DoD Contractor, TRISA OE Lab Ms. Nicole Jobe, DoD Contractor, TRADOC G-27 OEC MSD Dr. Jumanne Donahue, DoD Contractor, TRISA OE Lab Mr. Luke Roth, DoD Contractor, TRADOC G-27 OEC MSD The overall classification of this document is UNCLASSIFIED Distribution Restriction: Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited (U) Map of Nigeria UNCLASSIFIED | 2 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited (U) Snapshot Facts about Nigeria from CIA World Factbook (U) Population: 203 million (Africa’s most populous country, 7th most populous country in the world) (U) Population Growth Rate: 2.54% (Nigeria’s population is projected to grow from more than 186 million people in 2016 to 392 million in 2050, becoming the world’s fourth most populous country. (U) Total Land Area: 356,669 sq miles (923,768 sq km), twice the size of California (U) Capital: Abuja (city population 2.9 million) (U) Type of Government: Federal Republic (U) Independence from UK: October 1, 1960 (U) Constitution Enforced: October 1, 1963 (U) Current President: President Maj. Gen. (ret.) Muhammadu BUHARI (since 29 May 2015) (U) Primary Ethnic Groups: Hausa, Fulani, Yoruba, Igbo, Ijaw, Kanuri, Ibibio, Tiv (U) Primary Languages: English (official), Hausa, Fulani, Yoruba, Igbo, over 500 other languages (U) Religions: Muslim 51%, Catholic 11.2%, Other Christian 35.7%, traditionist .9%, unspecified .5% (2013 est.) (U) Literacy: 59.6% (2015 est.) (U) Urban Dwellers 50% of population (U) Percentage of Poor: 70% below poverty line (2010 est.) (U) Revenues in 2012: $22 billion (U) Expenditures in 2012: $28 billion (U) GDP (PPP / OER): $444 billion / $267 billion (U) Debt in 2013: $13.4 billion (U) Economic Growth Rate: 7.4% (U) Inflation / Unemployment: 12.2% (rate) / 24% (rate) (U) Exports: $96 billion in 2012: Petroleum and petroleum products (95%), cocoa, rubber (U) Imports: $53 billion in 2012: machinery, chemicals, transport equipment, manufactured goods and live animals (U) Industry: 43% of GDP: crude oil, coal, tin, columbite, rubber products, wood, hides and skins, textiles, cement and other construction materials, footwear, chemicals, fertilizer, printing, ceramics, steel (U) Agriculture: 31% of GDP: cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, fish, cocoa, peanuts, cotton, palm oil, corn, rice, sorghum, millet, rubber, timber (U) Natural Resources: Hydropower, fertile land, gold, diamonds, petroleum, hardwoods, limestone, iron, copper, chromium ore, zinc, tungsten, mica, silver UNCLASSIFIED | 3 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited (U) Climate and Terrain: Equatorial in south, tropical in center, arid in north; southern lowlands merge into central hills and plateaus; mountains in southeast, plains in north (U) PMESII Snapshots for the Federal Republic of Nigeria (U) Political Snapshot (U) Nigeria has a population of 203 million people and is Africa’s most populous country (CIA World Factbook). Since its independence from the United Kingdom on October 1, 1960, Nigeria has claimed itself to be a federal republic, but has shifted between military juntas and Westminster-style democratic governance throughout this timeframe. Present-day Nigeria can be divided roughly in half with Muslims who are concentrated mostly in the northern part in the 12 states and subject to Islamic shari’a law, and Christians and people with indigenous beliefs who mostly live in the south and central parts of the country—thus, Nigeria continues to experience longstanding ethnic and religious tensions. Kin-selective ethnocentrism, tribalism, and religious affiliation not only have bred violence and persecution, but also prevented the establishment of a universal, unified, federal power in Nigeria. Nigeria has ranked among the world’s most corrupt nations for decades, and Nigerians too have long been aware of extensive patronage systems. Since the end of military rule in 1999, however, rising public expectations for better governance under democracy and an expanding awareness of large-scale corruption has fueled demands for accountability and tangible benefits from the nation’s resources (“Nigeria: A Chronology of Key Events;” “Nigeria Profile”). (U) Oil accounts for 95% of Nigeria’s export revenues, and Nigeria’s government continues to face the daunting task of reforming a petroleum-based economy, the spoils of which have been utilized institutionalizing democracy as well as being squandered through corruption and mismanagement. Political liberalization may have ushered in a return to civilian rule and more democratic processes in 1999, but in the absence of a military junta exercising its powers it also has allowed militants from religious and ethnic groups to pursue their demands through violence. Tens of thousands of people have died over the past few years in communal attacks led by the al-Qaeda ally, Boko Haram. Separatist aspirations have also been growing, prompting reminders of the bitter civil war over the breakaway Biafran republic in the late 1960s (Nwokpoku; Polgreen). (U) The current President of Nigeria is President Maj. Gen. (ret.) Muhammadu BUHARI (since 29 May 2015) is a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Nigeria’s previous ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had a decently broad political base made up of Christians from the south and Muslims from the north. From an economic standpoint, the PDP supports free trade, open markets, privatization, deregulation, and overall enhancement of the role of the private sector in modernizing Nigeria. Concerning social issues, the PDP is fairly conservative, basing its positions on natural law kinds of arguments as well as religious grounds (Mazen). In 2006, for example, the PDP-dominated National Assembly sponsored a bill called the Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Act 2006 to outlaw same sex marriages, homosexual relationships, and UNCLASSIFIED | 4 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited other homosexual-related activities, making violations punishable up to 14 years in prison for “carnal knowledge against the order of nature.” The bill was passed into law on January 18, 2007. An updated version was signed into law on January 7, 2014 by President Jonathan (CIA World Factbook; Amnesty International; Bowcott). (U) Even though Nigeria has some 25 registered political parties, as of April 2017 two political parties seem to have the most power and influence: the PDP and the APC. In the Senate, APC holds 66 seats, and PDP holds 43 seats. In the House of Representatives, the APC holds 225 and the PDP holds 125, while other parties hold 10 seats. Previously, while anticipating the 2015 elections so as to challenge the power and perceived corruption of the previous President Jonathan and the PDP, in February of 2013 the All Nigeria Peoples Party, the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, and the All Progressives Grand Alliance merged to form the APC. The APC’s Manifesto notes that they want to bring the following to Nigerians: affordable health care; economic growth; better transportation; free education; and, most importantly, an end to the rampant and systemic corruption present at all levels of the Nigerian government (CIA World Factbook; All Progressives Congress). (U) Military Snapshot (U) Nigeria’s defense budget is 0.43% of Nigeria’s total GDP. The Nigerian Armed Forces (NAF) has around 200,000 active and 300,000 reserve personnel in three armed services: Army, Navy, and Air Force. The Nigerian Army is the largest branch of the Nigerian Armed Forces with some 100,000 professional personnel. Besides numerous standard departments that are found in any army, the Nigerian Army’s primary structures include 1st Division (headquartered in Kaduna), 2nd Division (Ibadan), 3rd Division (Jos), 81st Division (Lagos), 82nd Division (Enugu), and the Training and Doctrine Command. The Nigerian Navy is among the largest navies on the African continent, consisting of some 90,000 personnel, including those of the Coast Guard. The Nigerian Navy has its naval headquarters in Abuja, along with operational commands in Lagos, Calabar, and Brass Island in the state of Bayelsa. There are also five operational bases, five forward operational bases, two dockyards located in Lagos and Port Harcourt, two fleets based in Lagos and Calabar, a training facility headquarters in Lagos, and naval training facilities spread all over Nigeria. The Nigerian Air Force is one of the largest air forces on the African continent, possessing approximately 84 helicopters and 84 aircraft on 53 serviceable airports around the country. It consists of some 10,000 personnel and has major bases in the cities of Benin, Enugu, Jos, Kaduna, Kainji, Kano, Makurdi, Minna, and Shasha (CIA World Factbook; Military Periscope; Global Firepower). (U) Since 1999, a recurring problem for the NAF (the Army in particular) has to do with overly aggressive responses to local violence. NAF personnel—most of whom lack not only appropriate training and professionalism, but also an ethical concern for the duties associated with their profession and