Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study
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Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study October 2009 Document History JOB NUMBER: 5081587/905 DOCUMENT REF: M6T_FYA_Final.doc Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date 1 Draft for client review SB PW NM PR Sep ‘09 2 2nd Draft with HA (POPE) SB PW NM PR Sep ‘09 revisions 3 Final Draft SB PW NM PR Oct ‘09 5081587/POPE _ M6T FYA report _ Final Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study Contents Section Page Glossary of Terms iv Executive Summary vii Traffic vii Safety viii Environment viii 1. Introduction 1 Post Opening Project Evaluation (POPE) 1 Aims of this Study 1 Background to the M6 Toll 1 Scheme Description 5 Scheme Objectives 5 Scheme History 5 Midland Expressway Limited (MEL) 6 Current Economic Climate 6 Fuel Prices 6 Roadworks 7 Contents of this Report 7 2. Long Term Trends in Traffic Volumes 8 Major Roadworks affecting Midlands Motorways 8 Other Important Nearby Schemes 9 Variation in Numbers of M6 Toll Users 9 Annual Change in Average Number of M6 Toll Users 10 Changes in the Number of Electronic Tag Users 11 M6 Parallel to M6 Toll 12 M6 North and South of M6 Toll 13 Key Findings: Long Term Trends in Traffic 16 3. Daily Traffic Volumes 17 Factoring Methodology 17 Locations of Automatic Traffic Count (ATC) Sites on M6 Toll 17 Changes in 24hr Traffic Flows on the M6 Toll since 2004 18 Changes in Directional Flows on M6 Toll 24 Traffic Flows on the M6 and other Motorways and Strategic Routes 25 Key Findings: Daily Traffic Volumes 36 4. Peak Period Flows 38 Introduction 38 Peak Period Flows on the M6 Toll 38 Changes to Peak flows on Mondays to Thursdays 38 Changes to Peak flows on Fridays 40 Peak Period flows on the M6 and other Strategic Routes (Monday – Thursdays) 42 Peak Period flows on the M6 and other Strategic Routes (Fridays) 44 5081587/POPE _ M6T FYA report _ Final i Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study Key Findings: Peak Period Flows 46 5. Birmingham Box & the Midlands Area 47 Introduction 47 Motorway Box 47 Analysis of Motorway Box flows 49 Midlands Area Context 49 Key Findings: Motorway Box & the Midlands Area 52 6. Strategic Screenlines 53 Introduction 53 Screenline 1 – East of the southern tie-in of M6 Toll 54 Screenline 2 – West of southern tie-in of M6 Toll 54 Screenline 3 – Central Screenline 55 Screenline 4 – east of the Northern tie-in of M6 Toll 56 Screenline 5 – west of the northern tie-in of the M6 Toll 57 Key Findings: Strategic Screenlines 59 7. Classified Data 60 Introduction 60 Heavy Goods Vehicles on the M6 Toll 60 Heavy Goods Vehicles on the M6 and other Key Routes 62 Comparison of the 5.2m and 6.6m length division 64 Speed Data 66 Key Findings: Classified Data 67 8. Journey Times 68 Introduction 68 Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) 68 Methodology 69 Pick-up Rates 69 Period of Analysis 69 Analysis of Average Journey Times from the ANPR data 69 Journey Times on the M6 Toll 75 Comparing the M6 and M6 Toll average journey time profiles Five Years After 78 Journeys Times Derived from NTCC ANPR cameras 79 Summary of Journey Times 83 Key Findings: Journey Times 84 9. Safety 85 Introduction 85 Data Collection 85 Accident numbers 86 Accident severity 87 Accident Rates 88 Statistical tests of significant of findings 89 Number of Casualties 91 Severity – Killed and Seriously Injured Casualties 92 Comparison with the Findings from One Year After Study 93 Key Findings: Safety 94 5081587/POPE _ M6T FYA report _ Final ii Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study 10. Environment 95 Noise 95 Local Air Quality 95 Greenhouse Gases 96 Landscape 96 Heritage of Historic Resources 98 Biodiversity 98 Water Environment 99 Key Findings: Environment 101 11. Conclusions 102 Conclusions on Traffic Volumes 102 Conclusions from Strategic Screenlines 102 Conclusions on Journey Times 102 Conclusions on Vehicle Composition 103 Performance against Scheme Objectives 103 Safety Trends at FYA compared to OYA findings 104 Safety on the M6 Toll 104 Safety on the Parallel M6 and wider network 104 Appendices Appendix A 106 A.1 Average Journey Times (2003, 2004, 2009) 106 A.2 NTCC – Average Journey Times (2005 and 2009) 127 A.3 Analysis Methodology of Police ANPR data 148 A.4 Strategic Screenlines 151 Appendix B – Environment Evaluation 153 B.1 Environmental Evaluation 153 5081587/POPE _ M6T FYA report _ Final iii Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study Glossary of Terms Term Abbreviation Description where appropriate Area subject to monitoring by the local authority Air Quality AQMA because national air quality objectives are at risk Management Area from not being achieved. Annual Average Daily Average of 24 hour flows, seven days a week, for AADT Traffic all days within the year. Annual Average As AADT but for five days, (Monday to Friday) AAWT Weekday Traffic only. A system of cameras which recognise vehicle Automatic Number ANPR number plates helping to monitor congestion and Plate Recognition journey times. AM - Denoting the morning peak period An automated method of recording the volume (and Automatic Traffic ATC sometimes classification) of vehicles passing a Count particular point on a road. A scheme allowing drivers to use the hard shoulder Active Traffic during times of peak congestion using electronic ATM Management signs above each lane. Together with variable speed limits it helps smooth the flow of traffic. Average Weekday Average of Monday to Friday 24 hour flows over a AWT Traffic particular period. The Birmingham Motorway Box (The Box) comprises sections of the M5, M6 and M42 and ‘Birmingham Box’ - provides the strategic highway link into and around the West Midlands conurbation A statistical test to determine whether the observed values of a variable are significantly different from those expected on the basis of a null hypothesis. Chi-square - Variables are categorised to determine whether a distribution of scores is due to chance or experimental factors and tests whether one variable is independent of another. Roads built with private capital transferring the risk Design Build Finance & DBFO to the private sector as a part of the Government’s Operate Private Finance Initiative (PFI). A Government department whose objective is to oversee the delivery of a reliable, safe and secure Department for transport system that responds efficiently to the DfT Transport needs of individuals and business whilst safeguarding our environment. The Highways Agency is an executive of the DfT. This must be submitted with the initial planning Environmental ES application and covers all potential significant Statement impacts that the road project may have. 5081587/POPE _ M6T FYA report _ Final iv Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study Term Abbreviation Description where appropriate Relating to a POPE evaluation Five Years After Five Years After FYA scheme opening. Goods-carrying vehicle over 3,500kg unladen Heavy Goods Vehicle HGV weight. An Executive Agency of the Department for Transport (DfT), responsible for operating, Highways Agency HA maintaining and improving the strategic road network in England. Inter Peak IP The time between the AM and PM peaks Killed or Seriously KSI A term used to describe the number of people killed Injured or seriously injured as a result of PIAs. MSA An area on motorways where motorists can stop for Motorway Service Area refreshments and refuel. MIDAS Inductive loops installed in the carriageway monitoring speeds, vehicle types and flows. The Motorway Incident prime aim of MIDAS is to protect the back of Detection and queues, which have formed or are about to form, by Signalling automatically setting suitable signals to warn approaching traffic. NTCC A key element of the Government's Transport 2010 Ten Year Plan for developing and modernising the transport system in England. Based in the West National Traffic Control Midlands, the purpose-built centre has been Centre designed to collect, analyse and communicate travel information. In this report, journey times have been derived from ANPR cameras operated by the NTCC. NATA Applied in transport scheme appraisal since 1998, New Approach To however, not used in relation to this M6 Toll Appraisal evaluation. The government’s advisor on the natural environment, whose remit is to ensure sustainable Natural England NE stewardship of the land and sea so that people and nature can thrive. A term used to describe pedestrians, cyclists and Non-Motorised User NMU equestrians. Provided by the DfT. An integrated, multi-modal model developed from the framework of models used for the 10 Year Plan1. Provides a systematic National Transport means of comparing the national consequences of NTM Model alternative national transport policies or widely- applied local transport policies, against a range of background scenarios which take into account the major factors affecting future patterns of travel. Relating to a POPE study One Year After scheme One Year After OYA opening. 5081587/POPE _ M6T FYA report _ Final v Post Opening Project Evaluation M6 Toll Five Years After Study Term Abbreviation Description where appropriate Includes 2-axle rigid, 3-axle rigid, 3-axle articulated Other Goods Vehicle 1 OGV1 vehicles. Includes 4-axle rigid, 4-axle articulated and vehicles Other Goods Vehicle 2 OGV2 with 5 or more axles. Claims for compensation under Part 1 of the Land Part 1 claims - Compensation Act 1973, relating to homeowners affected by road schemes Personal Injury A term commonly used to refer to a road accident PIA Accident where one or more people are injured.