Bank of England
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Rachel Lomax: Inflation Targeting in Practice - Models, Forecasts and Hunches
Rachel Lomax: Inflation targeting in practice - models, forecasts and hunches Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, 12 March 2005. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments. * * * Introduction Five and a half years ago in his Monnet lecture Charles Goodhart1 was able to talk with some confidence of the features that particularly distinguished the UK’s approach to inflation targeting. Today with over 20 countries, in every habitable continent, formally operating some variant of inflation targeting and many more adopting some parts of the framework, all actively sharing experience and best practice, I suspect that most aspects of our approach would find a counterpart somewhere else in the world. But Charles’s focus on the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) personal engagement in producing a published inflation forecast still seems to me to capture the essence of the UK’s approach. Today I want to talk about the role that forecasting has come to play in helping the MPC to take and communicate its decisions. In what sense does the Committee really ‘own’ the published forecasts that go out under its name? How much use do we make of models, and what models do we use? How far do our forecasts appear to drive interest rate decisions? And is there any evidence that this has helped to make policy more or less predictable? Finally I want to end by commenting on some of the issues raised by forecasts as a means of communication. -
University of Surrey Discussion Papers in Economics By
råáp=== = = ======råáîÉêëáíó=çÑ=pìêêÉó Discussion Papers in Economics THE DISSENT VOTING BEHAVIOUR OF BANK OF ENGLAND MPC MEMBERS By Christopher Spencer (University of Surrey) DP 03/06 Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7XH, UK Telephone +44 (0)1483 689380 Facsimile +44 (0)1483 689548 Web www.econ.surrey.ac.uk ISSN: 1749-5075 The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members∗ Christopher Spencer† Department of Economics, University of Surrey Abstract I examine the propensity of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (BoEMPC) members to cast dissenting votes. In particular, I compare the type and frequency of dissenting votes cast by so- called insiders (members of the committee chosen from within the ranks of bank staff)andoutsiders (committee members chosen from outside the ranks of bank staff). Significant differences in the dissent voting behaviour associated with these groups is evidenced. Outsiders are significantly more likely to dissent than insiders; however, whereas outsiders tend to dissent on the side of monetary ease, insiders do so on the side of monetary tightness. I also seek to rationalise why such differences might arise, and in particular, why BoEMPC members might be incentivised to dissent. Amongst other factors, the impact of career backgrounds on dissent voting is examined. Estimates from logit analysis suggest that the effect of career backgrounds is negligible. Keywords: Monetary Policy Committee, insiders, outsiders, dissent voting, career backgrounds, ap- pointment procedures. Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Relationship to the Literature 2 3 Rationalising Dissent Amongst Insiders and Outsiders - Some Priors 3 3.1CareerIncentives........................................... 4 3.2CareerBackgrounds........................................ -
The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10
ISSN 1750-4171 ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model With An Application To Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10 School of Business and Economics Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1509 222701 Fax: + 44 (0) 1509 223910 http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/economics/ The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy William H. Greeney Max Gillmanz Mark N. Harrisx Christopher Spencer{ September 2013 Abstract We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on in‡ated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle In‡ated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a speci…cation test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model a¤ords the econometrician considerable ‡exibility with respect to modelling the impact of di¤erent forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our …ndings, we argue, reveal MPC members’ asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. Keywords: Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations. -
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 1999
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 1999 Volume 39 Number 2 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 1999 Summary 131 Recent economic and financial developments Markets and operations 133 Box on commodity currencies 136 Box on Bank of England participation in BIS loan to Brazil 138 Box on ECB monetary policy operations 148 The international environment 152 Report The transmission mechanism of monetary policy 161 Box on how the Bank sets interest rates 163 Research and analysis Monetary policy and the yield curve 171 The Bank’s use of survey data 177 Monetary policy and uncertainty 183 An effective exchange rate index for the euro area 190 Box on method for calculating the euro-area effective exchange rate index 192 The financing of small firms in the United Kingdom 195 Structural changes in exchange-traded markets 202 Box on US equity markets 205 Speeches Developments in small business finance Speech by the Governor given at the KPMG Profitability Seminar on 1 March 1999 207 Economic models and monetary policy Speech by John Vickers, Executive Director and Chief Economist, given at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research on 18 March 1999 210 Inflation and growth in the service industries Speech by Deanne Julius, member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, delivered as the Vital Topics Lecture at the Manchester Business School on 23 March 1999 217 Volume 39 Number 2 Printed by Park Communications © Bank of England 1999 ISSN 0005-5166 The Quarterly Bulletin and Inflation Report Inflation Report The Inflation Report reviews developments in the UK economy and assesses the outlook for (published separately) UK inflation over the next two years in relation to the inflation target. -
Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Contents
Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Contents 3Governor’s Foreword 6 The Court of Directors 8Governance and Accountability 10 The Bank’s Core Purposes 12 Organisation Overview 14 The Executive and Senior Management 16 Review of Performance against Objectives and Strategy 30 Monetary Policy Committee Processes 34 Objectives and Strategy for 2003/04 35 Financial Framework for 2003/04 39 Personnel and Community Activities 43 Remuneration of Governors, Directors and MPC Members 47 Report from Members of Court 52 Risk Management 55 Report by the Non-Executive Directors 58 Report of the Independent Auditors The Bank’s Financial Statements 60 Banking Department Profit and Loss Account 61 Banking Department Balance Sheet 62 Banking Department Cash Flow Statement 63 Notes to the Banking Department Financial Statements 92 Issue Department Statements of Account 93 Notes to the Issue Department Statements of Account 95 Addresses and Telephone Numbers Eddie George, Governor 2 Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Governor’s Foreword This is the last occasion on which I will write the foreword to the Bank of England’s Annual Report, having had the immense privilege – and enormous pleasure – of serving the Bank as its Governor for the past ten years. At the time of my appointment in 1993, many of our preoccupations were very similar to those we have today – I see that in my first foreword I wrote about the importance of price stability as the primary objective for monetary policy. But what we did not fully appreciate as the Bank entered its fourth century was the extent and speed of the changes it was about to experience, which have proved to be among the most dramatic and interesting in its history. -
Board of Regents Academic and Student Affairs Committee 7 State of Iowa December 2, 2015
BOARD OF REGENTS ACADEMIC AND STUDENT AFFAIRS COMMITTEE 7 STATE OF IOWA DECEMBER 2, 2015 Contact: Diana Gonzalez REQUEST TO AWARD AN HONORARY DOCTOR OF HUMANE LETTERS DEGREE AT IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Action Requested: Consider approval of the request by Iowa State University to award an honorary Doctor of Humane Letters degree to Dame DeAnne Julius at Fall 2015 Commencement. Executive Summary: Iowa State University wishes to recognize Dame DeAnne for her many outstanding contributions and distinguished service in economics, business, international relations, government, policymaking, and academia. Details on Dame DeAnne’s Accomplishments: Dame DeAnne was born in Iowa and currently holds dual citizenship in the United States and the United Kingdom. She graduated from Ames High School in 1967 in two and a half years. In 1970, she earned a B.S. with distinction in economics from Iowa State University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Davis. Dame DeAnne spent one year as an economic analyst for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency before completing her advanced degrees at UC-Davis. In 1975, she began her career as a project economist with the World Bank in Washington. During the next seven years, she worked in many countries, conducting rigorous analyses of the economic feasibility of proposed investment projects and became the Bank’s senior expert in electricity generation, petroleum, and natural gas extraction and distribution. From 1986 to 1989, Dame DeAnne served as Director of the International Economics Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Also known as Chatham House, the organization is a think tank devoted to international affairs. -
KPMG Board Leadership Centre Global Boardroom Insights
Calibrating risk oversight KPMG Board Leadership Centre Global Boardroom Insights Lindsay Maxsted – BHP Billiton (Australia) Maggie Wilderotter – Frontier/Xerox/Proctor & Gamble (U.S.) Artur Gabor – PKN Orlen (Poland) Dame DeAnne Julius – Roche (Switzerland) Marie Gemma Dequae – FERMA/Belfius (Belgium) Mike Nolan – KPMG’s Global Leader Risk Consulting 2 Calibrating risk oversight A Note from KPMG’s Audit Committee Institute U.S. investor Warren Buffet has said quite simply that “risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” Of course, underlying that observation – as any board member or business leader well knows – are all the challenges, complexities, and uncertainties of running a business. For many boards and audit committees today, helping to ensure that As one director suggests, a good risk management and governance the company is headed in the right direction and taking appropriate process “can be compared to the brakes of a car. The better the risks – that the company “knows what it’s doing” – is requiring deeper brakes, the faster the car can drive.” Indeed, good brakes are essential. engagement as the business and risk environment becomes more The challenge for many businesses and boards will be to effectively link complex and faster paced. In this edition of Global Boardroom Insights, risk management with the strategy that’s driving the company forward seasoned directors and risk professionals from around the world share – and to calibrate along the way. their thoughts on how boards are strengthening their oversight of risk We hope you find this edition of Global Boardroom Insights helpful in – particularly in the context of strategy. -
The Organisation and Structure of Central Banks. Dissertation
The Organisation and Structure of Central Banks Dissertation Approved as fulfilling the requirements for the degree of Doctor rerum politicarum (Dr. rer. pol.) at the Department of Law and Economics of Technische Universität Darmstadt by Jan Weidner, M.Sc. (born in Darmstadt) First supervisor: Prof. Dr. Volker Nitsch Second supervisor: Prof. Dr. Michael Neugart Date of submission: April 20, 2017 Date of defense: July 13, 2017 Place of publication: Darmstadt Year of publication: 2017 D17 Acknowledgments At this point, I would like to take a moment to thank those who have supported and guided me over the course of writing this dissertation. First and foremost, I owe my doctoral advisor Prof. Dr. Volker Nitsch a huge debt of gratitude for a number of reasons. Firstly, for agreeing to supervise my thesis and, secondly, for offering me a position at his chair. Above all however, I must thank him for the expertise he has shared with me and the moral support he provided me throughout this process. His knowledge, opinions, and advice have always been of great assistance and value to me. I thank Prof. Dr. Michael Neugart greatly for being my second supervisor and for his guidance and advice on many issues. Additionally, my great experience of a Winter School in Shanghai is thanks to him and I will remember this always. Finally, it would be remiss of me not to thank him for the happy hours spent on the football pitch. I wish to express my gratitude to the chairman of my examination committee, Prof. Dr. Jens Krüger, and to the other members of the committee, Prof. -
Making a Modern Central Bank
CONSEQUENCES OF SUCCESS AND FAILURE: MAKING A MODERN CENTRAL BANK Bank of England book launch Virtual 23 November 2020 Bank of England book launch OVERVIEW A series of upheavals at the Bank of England in 1987-2003 provided the background to a monetary and economic revolution that reverberates still through global finance today. Harold James’ Making a Modern Central Bank – The Bank of England 1979-2003 examines the most turbulent period of change at the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street since its early years helping finance war with France after its foundation in 1694. The launch brings together leading figures from the UK and abroad to discuss past successes and failures which have shaped the Bank’s make-up. The session starts with a balance sheet of the Bank of England’s overall transformation, going on to discuss the impact on UK and international banking and finance. It ends by looking at the lasting legacies of changing regimes for monetary policy and banking supervision. MEETING AT A GLANCE GMT 15:00 - 15:05 Welcome address 15:05 - 15:15 Keynote address: Harold James, Professor of History, Princeton University 15:15 - 16:10 Session I: Consequences of success and failure: the making of a modern central bank 16:10 - 17:05 Session II: Development of banking and financial markets: the growth of financial globalisation 17:05 - 18:00 Session III: Balancing responsibilities: Banking supervision, monetary policy and the trials of independence 18:00 Closing remarks 2|Consequences of success and failure: Making a modern central bank MEETING PROGRAMME -
Report 2002.Qxd
Bank of England Annual Report 2002 Bank of England Annual Report 2002 Contents 3Governor’s Foreword 6 The Court of Directors 8Governance and Accountability 10 The Bank’s Core Purposes 12 Organisation Overview 14 The Executive and Senior Management 16 Review of Performance against Objectives and Strategy 32 Monetary Policy Committee Processes 36 Objectives and Strategy for 2002/03 37 Financial Framework for 2002/03 41 Personnel and Community Activities 45 Remuneration of Governors, Directors and MPC Members 49 Report from Members of Court 53 Risk Management 56 Report by the Non-Executive Directors 58 Report of the Independent Auditors 60 The Bank’s Financial Statements 60 Banking Department Profit and Loss Account 61 Banking Department Balance Sheet 62 Banking Department Cash Flow Statement 63 Notes to the Banking Department Financial Statements 90 Issue Department Statements of Account 91 Notes to the Issue Department Statements of Account Addresses and Telephone Numbers Eddie George, Governor 2 Bank of England Annual Report 2002 Governor’s Foreword The UK economy has faced a difficult international environment over the past year. The internationally-exposed sectors were severely affected by the global economic slowdown, aggravated by the events of 11 September, and by the continuing weakness of the euro in foreign exchange markets. Although for much of the time we were able to fend off the worst effects on the economy as a whole by stimulating domestic demand, notably consumer spending, this necessarily meant living with a two-speed economy. Even so growth came to a halt in the fourth quarter of 2001 and the first quarter of 2002. -
Headed Sbe Annual Report 2016-17.Pdf
Dean House Vernham Dean Andover, Hants SP11 0JZ Tel: +44 (0)1264737552 Fax: +44 (0)20 7900 2585 Email: [email protected] www.sbe.co.uk ANNUAL REPORT OF THE CHAIRMAN 2016-17 I am pleased to report that 2016-17 has been another year of progress for the Society of Business Economists: membership is approaching an all-time high, the Society’s finances are stable, its programme of events has never been stronger, and it is expanding the type and range of services that it provides to its members. The expansion of the Society’s membership and the improvement in its finances in recent years allow us to continue to enhance the services that we offer to current and prospective members. In the New Year, we will be launching a professional development programme for economists, to be run by the Society’s new Head of Professional Development, Andy Ross. In addition, over the past year, we have employed Dr Rebecca Harding as a Senior Consultant, to help grow both membership of the Society and the range of services that it provides. The Society could not survive without the hard work and dedication of its Council. I am particularly indebted to Sandra Curtis, the Society’s Honorary Secretary, for her dedication. Also, to Dame Kate Barker DBE, who chairs the Society’s Membership Committee and is a former Chairman of the Society; George Buckley, the Vice Chairman of the Society and the incoming chair of the Membership Committee; James Lambert and Andrew Milligan OBE, who co-chair the Society’s Finance and Investment Committee; Ian Harwood, who chairs the SBE’s Professional Development Committee; Sunil Krishnan, who chairs the Website and Social Media committee; Amanda Rowlatt, who spearheaded the joint SBE/GES programme; and to Adrian Majumdar, Stephen Meredith and Ian Mulheirn, who all joined Council at the end of 2016. -
Impact Report 2020-21
Impact repor t 2020–21 t Our global impact Our global world-leading reach independent Secondresearch level foliois a if vitalneeded resource for leaders and policymakers around the world United States of America Analysing US foreign policy priorities, including transitions, trends and prospects for international Latin America cooperation under the and the Caribbean Biden administration Promoting greater in areas such awareness of as trade, global developments governance and security. in the region and an inclusive circular economy, and a green recovery globally. Brazil Finding innovative solutions to tackle climate change, including better ways to manage land use, forests and food production in South America and around the world. t United Kingdom Belarus Improving population Working with civil society health post COVID-19, and the international focusing on health systems, community to provide supply chains and societal recommendations health equalities in for democracy, good Europe and globally. governance and human rights protections. China Exploring cooperation and competition, including transatlantic and Indo-Pacific responses to China’s domestic and foreign policies, Middle East and and their impacts on North Africa region regional geopolitics. Setting out a roadmap for regional stability and security, including work on political movements and transitions in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran. Indonesia Strengthening Nigeria cybersecurity Supporting architecture to make individuals, the internet a safer organizations and space for governments public officials to and societies globally, tackle corruption. including in the ASEAN region – #cyberspace4all. Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is a world-leading policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.