Report 2002.Qxd
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Rachel Lomax: Inflation Targeting in Practice - Models, Forecasts and Hunches
Rachel Lomax: Inflation targeting in practice - models, forecasts and hunches Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, 12 March 2005. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments. * * * Introduction Five and a half years ago in his Monnet lecture Charles Goodhart1 was able to talk with some confidence of the features that particularly distinguished the UK’s approach to inflation targeting. Today with over 20 countries, in every habitable continent, formally operating some variant of inflation targeting and many more adopting some parts of the framework, all actively sharing experience and best practice, I suspect that most aspects of our approach would find a counterpart somewhere else in the world. But Charles’s focus on the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) personal engagement in producing a published inflation forecast still seems to me to capture the essence of the UK’s approach. Today I want to talk about the role that forecasting has come to play in helping the MPC to take and communicate its decisions. In what sense does the Committee really ‘own’ the published forecasts that go out under its name? How much use do we make of models, and what models do we use? How far do our forecasts appear to drive interest rate decisions? And is there any evidence that this has helped to make policy more or less predictable? Finally I want to end by commenting on some of the issues raised by forecasts as a means of communication. -
University of Surrey Discussion Papers in Economics By
råáp=== = = ======råáîÉêëáíó=çÑ=pìêêÉó Discussion Papers in Economics THE DISSENT VOTING BEHAVIOUR OF BANK OF ENGLAND MPC MEMBERS By Christopher Spencer (University of Surrey) DP 03/06 Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7XH, UK Telephone +44 (0)1483 689380 Facsimile +44 (0)1483 689548 Web www.econ.surrey.ac.uk ISSN: 1749-5075 The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members∗ Christopher Spencer† Department of Economics, University of Surrey Abstract I examine the propensity of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (BoEMPC) members to cast dissenting votes. In particular, I compare the type and frequency of dissenting votes cast by so- called insiders (members of the committee chosen from within the ranks of bank staff)andoutsiders (committee members chosen from outside the ranks of bank staff). Significant differences in the dissent voting behaviour associated with these groups is evidenced. Outsiders are significantly more likely to dissent than insiders; however, whereas outsiders tend to dissent on the side of monetary ease, insiders do so on the side of monetary tightness. I also seek to rationalise why such differences might arise, and in particular, why BoEMPC members might be incentivised to dissent. Amongst other factors, the impact of career backgrounds on dissent voting is examined. Estimates from logit analysis suggest that the effect of career backgrounds is negligible. Keywords: Monetary Policy Committee, insiders, outsiders, dissent voting, career backgrounds, ap- pointment procedures. Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Relationship to the Literature 2 3 Rationalising Dissent Amongst Insiders and Outsiders - Some Priors 3 3.1CareerIncentives........................................... 4 3.2CareerBackgrounds........................................ -
The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10
ISSN 1750-4171 ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model With An Application To Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10 School of Business and Economics Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1509 222701 Fax: + 44 (0) 1509 223910 http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/economics/ The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy William H. Greeney Max Gillmanz Mark N. Harrisx Christopher Spencer{ September 2013 Abstract We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on in‡ated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle In‡ated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a speci…cation test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model a¤ords the econometrician considerable ‡exibility with respect to modelling the impact of di¤erent forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our …ndings, we argue, reveal MPC members’ asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. Keywords: Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations. -
Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Contents
Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Contents 3Governor’s Foreword 6 The Court of Directors 8Governance and Accountability 10 The Bank’s Core Purposes 12 Organisation Overview 14 The Executive and Senior Management 16 Review of Performance against Objectives and Strategy 30 Monetary Policy Committee Processes 34 Objectives and Strategy for 2003/04 35 Financial Framework for 2003/04 39 Personnel and Community Activities 43 Remuneration of Governors, Directors and MPC Members 47 Report from Members of Court 52 Risk Management 55 Report by the Non-Executive Directors 58 Report of the Independent Auditors The Bank’s Financial Statements 60 Banking Department Profit and Loss Account 61 Banking Department Balance Sheet 62 Banking Department Cash Flow Statement 63 Notes to the Banking Department Financial Statements 92 Issue Department Statements of Account 93 Notes to the Issue Department Statements of Account 95 Addresses and Telephone Numbers Eddie George, Governor 2 Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Governor’s Foreword This is the last occasion on which I will write the foreword to the Bank of England’s Annual Report, having had the immense privilege – and enormous pleasure – of serving the Bank as its Governor for the past ten years. At the time of my appointment in 1993, many of our preoccupations were very similar to those we have today – I see that in my first foreword I wrote about the importance of price stability as the primary objective for monetary policy. But what we did not fully appreciate as the Bank entered its fourth century was the extent and speed of the changes it was about to experience, which have proved to be among the most dramatic and interesting in its history. -
Bank of England
Bank of England Annual Report 2001 Bank of England Annual Report 2001 Contents 3 Governor’s Foreword 6 The Court of Directors 8 Governance and Accountability 10 Organisation Overview 12 The Executive and Senior Management 14 The Bank’s Core Purposes 15 Review of Performance against Objectives and Strategy 28 Monetary Policy Committee Processes 33 Objectives and Strategy for 2001/02 34 Financial Framework for 2001/02 38 Personnel, Community Activities and Technical Assistance 43 Remuneration of Governors, Directors and MPC Members 47 Report from Members of Court 51 Risk Management 54 Report by the Non-Executive Directors 56 Report of the Independent Auditors 58 The Bank’s Financial Statements 58 Banking Department Profit and Loss Account 59 Banking Department Balance Sheet 60 Banking Department Cash Flow Statement 61 Notes to the Banking Department Financial Statements 85 Issue Department Statements of Account 86 Notes to the Issue Department Statements of Account 88 Addresses and Telephone Numbers Sir Edward George, Governor 2 Bank of England Annual Report 2001 Governor’s Foreword The past year has seen further steady progress for the UK economy as a whole. By the first 1 quarter of 2001, output was some 2 /2% higher than a year earlier, leaving the annual average rate of growth at around 3% since the recovery from recession began some nine years ago. Employment has continued to rise, to over 28 million on the latest LFS data – the highest number of people in work on record; and the rate of unemployment has continued to decline, to 3.3% on the claimant count – the lowest rate since August 1975. -
Provision of Emergency Liquidity Assistance in 2008/9
REVIEW OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S PROVISION OF EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY ASSISTANCE IN 2008–09 Report by Ian Plenderleith Presented to the Court of the Bank of England October 2012 Introduction Introduction 1. This Review examines the actions of the Bank of England at the height of the financial crisis, around the collapse of Lehman Brothers, to provide emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland in 2008–09. It is one of three reviews commissioned by the Court of Governors of the Bank on 21 May 2012. 2. The terms of reference for the Review (set out in full in Appendix 1) specify that its purpose is to learn lessons to inform the way the Bank conducts ELA operations for individual financial institutions. Specifically, the Review is charged with examining: The basis of the decisions to provide ELA to each firm concerned; The governance arrangements within the Bank for making those decisions; The structure and terms of each ELA operation; The effects of those operations on the institutions concerned and on overall financial stability; The capability of the Bank to plan, implement and manage those operations. 3. Overall, the Review is charged with examining how the Bank discharged its responsibilities as lender of last resort in a crisis and making recommendations for the conduct of any such operations in the future. 4. The Review addresses this remit by examining each aspect of the Bank’s ELA operations in 2008–09 in turn. At each stage, an assessment is made of the effectiveness of the Bank’s actions in the circumstances of the time; and, looking forward, recommendations are made at various points on issues the Bank may need to consider for the conduct of any future ELA operations. -
The Monetary Policy Committee
RESEARCH PAPER 03/80 The Monetary Policy 30 OCTOBER 2003 Committee: decisions & performance. This Paper looks at the history of the first six years of the Monetary Policy Committee. It examines the reasons given for its establishment, describes its actions and assesses its impact. It updates Research Paper 01/59 produced in June 2001. Grahame Allen ECONOMIC POLICY AND STATISTICS HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY Recent Library Research Papers include: 03/65 Delivering the Decent Homes Standard: social landlords’ options 07.08.03 and progress 03/66 Unemployment by Constituency, July 2003 13.08.03 03/67 The Water Bill [HL] [Bill 149 of 2002-03] 04.09.03 03/68 The Swedish Referendum on the Euro 15.09.03 03/69 The Northern Ireland (Monitoring Commission etc) Bill [HL] 16.09.03 [Bill 158 of 2002-03] 03/70 Arms Control and Disarmament (Inspections) Bill [HL] 16.09.03 [Bill 50 of 2002-03] 03/71 Social Indicators 16.09.03 03/72 Unemployment by Constituency, August 2003 17.09.03 03/73 Tourism 23.09.03 03/74 The Burden of Taxation 23.09.03 03/75 Unemployment by Constituency, September 2003 15.10.03 03/76 The European Parliamentary and Local Elections (Pilots) Bill 16.10.03 [Bill 160 of 2002-03] 03/77 Officers of Parliament – a Comparative Perspective 20.10.03 03/78 UK Defence Procurement Policy 20.10.03 03/79 The Private Finance Initiative (PFI) 30.10.03 Research Papers are available as PDF files: • to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: http://www.parliament.uk • within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: http://hcl1.hclibrary.parliament.uk Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. -
The Organisation and Structure of Central Banks. Dissertation
The Organisation and Structure of Central Banks Dissertation Approved as fulfilling the requirements for the degree of Doctor rerum politicarum (Dr. rer. pol.) at the Department of Law and Economics of Technische Universität Darmstadt by Jan Weidner, M.Sc. (born in Darmstadt) First supervisor: Prof. Dr. Volker Nitsch Second supervisor: Prof. Dr. Michael Neugart Date of submission: April 20, 2017 Date of defense: July 13, 2017 Place of publication: Darmstadt Year of publication: 2017 D17 Acknowledgments At this point, I would like to take a moment to thank those who have supported and guided me over the course of writing this dissertation. First and foremost, I owe my doctoral advisor Prof. Dr. Volker Nitsch a huge debt of gratitude for a number of reasons. Firstly, for agreeing to supervise my thesis and, secondly, for offering me a position at his chair. Above all however, I must thank him for the expertise he has shared with me and the moral support he provided me throughout this process. His knowledge, opinions, and advice have always been of great assistance and value to me. I thank Prof. Dr. Michael Neugart greatly for being my second supervisor and for his guidance and advice on many issues. Additionally, my great experience of a Winter School in Shanghai is thanks to him and I will remember this always. Finally, it would be remiss of me not to thank him for the happy hours spent on the football pitch. I wish to express my gratitude to the chairman of my examination committee, Prof. Dr. Jens Krüger, and to the other members of the committee, Prof. -
Currency Puzzles
Currency Puzzles Speech given by Sushil Wadhwani, Monetary Policy Committee At the London School of Economics 16 September 1999 This lecture draws extensively on ongoing joint work with Hasan Bakhshi of the Bank of England, to whom I am enormously indebted. Simon Cartwright and Peter Berry provided able research assistance. Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher and Chris Salmon gave me much helpful advice during the project. I am also extremely grateful to Bill Allen, Peter Andrews, Andy Brigden, Alec Chrystal, Charles Goodhart, DeAnne Julius, Mervyn King, Gus O’Donnell, Ian Plenderleith, Peter Rodgers, Clifford Smout and John Vickers for their comments and suggestions. Of course, this lecture only reflects my personal views, and does not in any way reflect a position held by the Monetary Policy Committee or the Bank of England. 1 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx 2 1 INTRODUCTION It is a great pleasure to speak at the LSE today. This is the institution that I came to as an undergraduate in 1977, and then stayed for nearly 14 years, both, as a student and as a member of the teaching staff. I have also had close links with the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) – indeed, I joined the Centre for Labour Economics (which evolved into the CEP) as a research assistant in 1980, and remained with the CLE/CEP until 1991. Those were happy, if intense, days. The LSE was an intellectually exciting place to be, and I learnt a great deal by just being around. One of the things that we were puzzling about back then were aspects of currency movements (see, eg Charles Goodhart’s (1988) inaugural lecture; even I wrote a little paper then on excessive currency volatility – see Wadhwani (1987)), and it is perhaps in the challenging nature of the subject that we are still worrying about similar issues. -
Inflation Report
Inflation Report May 2000 The Inflation Report is produced quarterly by Bank staff under the guidance of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee. It serves two purposes. First, its preparation provides a comprehensive and forward-looking framework for discussion among MPC members as an aid to our decision making. Second, its publication allows us to share our thinking and explain the reasons for our decisions to those whom they affect. Although not every member will agree with every assumption on which our projections are based, the fan charts represent the MPC’s best collective judgment about the most likely path for inflation and output, and the uncertainties surrounding those central projections. This Report has been prepared and published by the Bank of England in accordance with section 18 of the Bank of England Act 1998. The Monetary Policy Committee: Eddie George, Governor Mervyn King, Deputy Governor responsible for monetary policy David Clementi, Deputy Governor responsible for financial stability Willem Buiter Charles Goodhart DeAnne Julius Ian Plenderleith John Vickers Sushil Wadhwani The Overview of this Inflation Report is available on the Bank’s web site: www.bankofengland.co.uk/inflationreport/infrep.htm The entire Report is available in PDF format on www.bankofengland.co.uk/inflationreport/index.htm Printed by Park Communications Ltd © Bank of England 2000 ISBN 1 85730 167 6 ISSN 1353–6737 Overview In the first quarter of 2000, output in the UK economy was 2.9% higher than a year earlier, and inflation on the RPIX measure was 2.0% in March. Final domestic demand, led by household consumption, grew strongly last year. -
Inflation Targeting in Practice: the UK Experience
Inflation targeting in practice: the UK experience Speech given by John Vickers, Executive Director and Chief Economist at the Bank of England At the conference on Implementation of Price Stability, Frankfurt November 1998 1 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx Inflation targeting in practice: the UK experience In this speech,(1) John Vickers, Executive Director and Chief Economist at the Bank of England, discusses theoretical and practical issues relating to inflation targeting as used in the United Kingdom during the past six years. After outlining the role of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, he considers the Committee’s task from a theoretical perspective, before discussing the concept and measurement of domestically generated inflation. Introduction we make decisions, how we seek to explain them, and how we are held accountable for doing the job we have been Six years ago this week, sterling left the exchange rate given. mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System, and dropped by 7% from DM 2.80 to DM 2.60. But since Next, though my task is to discuss inflation targeting from falling below DM 2.20 in l995, sterling has risen to levels the practical perspective of UK experience, I shall take a higher than before its exit from the ERM. In an economy as detour and discuss a sort of converse question: how might open to international trade as the United Kingdom, one UK practice appear from the perspective of the theory of might have expected that such large swings in the price of inflation targeting? Then finally, and returning to the theme foreign exchange would destabilise domestic price inflation. -
Inflation Report November 2000
Inflation Report November 2000 The Inflation Report is produced quarterly by Bank staff under the guidance of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee. It serves two purposes. First, its preparation provides a comprehensive and forward-looking framework for discussion among MPC members as an aid to our decision making. Second, its publication allows us to share our thinking and explain the reasons for our decisions to those whom they affect. Although not every member will agree with every assumption on which our projections are based, the fan charts represent the MPC’s best collective judgment about the most likely paths for inflation and output, and the uncertainties surrounding those central projections. This Report has been prepared and published by the Bank of England in accordance with section 18 of the Bank of England Act 1998. The Monetary Policy Committee: Eddie George, Governor Mervyn King, Deputy Governor responsible for monetary policy David Clementi, Deputy Governor responsible for financial stability Christopher Allsopp Charles Bean DeAnne Julius Stephen Nickell Ian Plenderleith Sushil Wadhwani The Overview of this Inflation Report is available on the Bank’s web site: www.bankofengland.co.uk/inflationreport/infrep.htm The entire Report is available in PDF format on www.bankofengland.co.uk/inflationreport/index.htm Printed by Park Communications Ltd © Bank of England 2000 ISBN 1 85730 192 7 ISSN 1353–6737 Overview The United Kingdom has continued to experience above-trend growth and low inflation. Output in the third quarter is provisionally estimated to have been 2.9% higher than a year ago, while RPIX inflation was 2.2% in the year to September, marginally below the 1 2 /2% target.