Currency Puzzles
Currency Puzzles Speech given by Sushil Wadhwani, Monetary Policy Committee At the London School of Economics 16 September 1999 This lecture draws extensively on ongoing joint work with Hasan Bakhshi of the Bank of England, to whom I am enormously indebted. Simon Cartwright and Peter Berry provided able research assistance. Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher and Chris Salmon gave me much helpful advice during the project. I am also extremely grateful to Bill Allen, Peter Andrews, Andy Brigden, Alec Chrystal, Charles Goodhart, DeAnne Julius, Mervyn King, Gus O’Donnell, Ian Plenderleith, Peter Rodgers, Clifford Smout and John Vickers for their comments and suggestions. Of course, this lecture only reflects my personal views, and does not in any way reflect a position held by the Monetary Policy Committee or the Bank of England. 1 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx 2 1 INTRODUCTION It is a great pleasure to speak at the LSE today. This is the institution that I came to as an undergraduate in 1977, and then stayed for nearly 14 years, both, as a student and as a member of the teaching staff. I have also had close links with the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) – indeed, I joined the Centre for Labour Economics (which evolved into the CEP) as a research assistant in 1980, and remained with the CLE/CEP until 1991. Those were happy, if intense, days. The LSE was an intellectually exciting place to be, and I learnt a great deal by just being around. One of the things that we were puzzling about back then were aspects of currency movements (see, eg Charles Goodhart’s (1988) inaugural lecture; even I wrote a little paper then on excessive currency volatility – see Wadhwani (1987)), and it is perhaps in the challenging nature of the subject that we are still worrying about similar issues.
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