Bank of England Annual Report 2003 Contents
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Rachel Lomax: Inflation Targeting in Practice - Models, Forecasts and Hunches
Rachel Lomax: Inflation targeting in practice - models, forecasts and hunches Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, 12 March 2005. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments. * * * Introduction Five and a half years ago in his Monnet lecture Charles Goodhart1 was able to talk with some confidence of the features that particularly distinguished the UK’s approach to inflation targeting. Today with over 20 countries, in every habitable continent, formally operating some variant of inflation targeting and many more adopting some parts of the framework, all actively sharing experience and best practice, I suspect that most aspects of our approach would find a counterpart somewhere else in the world. But Charles’s focus on the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) personal engagement in producing a published inflation forecast still seems to me to capture the essence of the UK’s approach. Today I want to talk about the role that forecasting has come to play in helping the MPC to take and communicate its decisions. In what sense does the Committee really ‘own’ the published forecasts that go out under its name? How much use do we make of models, and what models do we use? How far do our forecasts appear to drive interest rate decisions? And is there any evidence that this has helped to make policy more or less predictable? Finally I want to end by commenting on some of the issues raised by forecasts as a means of communication. -
Six Months on the MPC: a Reflection on Monetary Policy
Six Months on the MPC: A Reflection on Monetary Policy Speech given by Marian Bell, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England To the CBI South East in Crawley, Sussex 9 December 2002 I am grateful to Nick Davey, Jennifer Greenslade, Stuart Lee and Gregory Thwaites for help in preparing this paper. It has also benefited from comments from Peter Andrews, Andrew Bailey, Kate Barker, Charlie Bean, Roger Clews, Rebecca Driver, Mervyn King, Kathy McCarthy, Ed Nelson, Gus O’Donnell, Peter Rodgers, Simon Whitaker and Geoffrey Wood. All errors are of course mine. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the other members of the Monetary Policy Committee or the Bank of England. 1 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx 2 Six months on the MPC: a reflection on monetary policy Thank you for inviting me to speak to you here today. Last week I voted on the appropriate level of UK interest rates for the sixth time since my term on the Monetary Policy Committee began in June. Today I thought I might take the opportunity to reflect on my first six months. In many ways it is a very technical and narrow job. The monetary policy arena in which policymakers can have influence, by alterations in interest rates and the quantity of money, is the general price level and its rate of change, i.e. the rate of inflation. In some respects the central bank’s monetary policy role is even narrower in the UK than in some other countries because the rate of inflation which the Monetary Policy Committee targets is set, quite properly, by the democratically elected government and not by the Committee itself. -
University of Surrey Discussion Papers in Economics By
råáp=== = = ======råáîÉêëáíó=çÑ=pìêêÉó Discussion Papers in Economics THE DISSENT VOTING BEHAVIOUR OF BANK OF ENGLAND MPC MEMBERS By Christopher Spencer (University of Surrey) DP 03/06 Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7XH, UK Telephone +44 (0)1483 689380 Facsimile +44 (0)1483 689548 Web www.econ.surrey.ac.uk ISSN: 1749-5075 The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members∗ Christopher Spencer† Department of Economics, University of Surrey Abstract I examine the propensity of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (BoEMPC) members to cast dissenting votes. In particular, I compare the type and frequency of dissenting votes cast by so- called insiders (members of the committee chosen from within the ranks of bank staff)andoutsiders (committee members chosen from outside the ranks of bank staff). Significant differences in the dissent voting behaviour associated with these groups is evidenced. Outsiders are significantly more likely to dissent than insiders; however, whereas outsiders tend to dissent on the side of monetary ease, insiders do so on the side of monetary tightness. I also seek to rationalise why such differences might arise, and in particular, why BoEMPC members might be incentivised to dissent. Amongst other factors, the impact of career backgrounds on dissent voting is examined. Estimates from logit analysis suggest that the effect of career backgrounds is negligible. Keywords: Monetary Policy Committee, insiders, outsiders, dissent voting, career backgrounds, ap- pointment procedures. Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Relationship to the Literature 2 3 Rationalising Dissent Amongst Insiders and Outsiders - Some Priors 3 3.1CareerIncentives........................................... 4 3.2CareerBackgrounds........................................ -
The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10
ISSN 1750-4171 ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model With An Application To Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10 School of Business and Economics Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1509 222701 Fax: + 44 (0) 1509 223910 http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/economics/ The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy William H. Greeney Max Gillmanz Mark N. Harrisx Christopher Spencer{ September 2013 Abstract We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on in‡ated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle In‡ated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a speci…cation test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model a¤ords the econometrician considerable ‡exibility with respect to modelling the impact of di¤erent forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our …ndings, we argue, reveal MPC members’ asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. Keywords: Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations. -
Occasional Paper by Alastair Clark and Andrew
Macroprudential Policy: Addressing the Things We Don’t Know Alastair Clark Andrew Large Occasional Paper 83 30 Group of Thirty, Washington, DC About the Authors Alastair Clark, CBE, formerly Executive Director and Adviser to the Governor of the Bank of England, has since 2009 been Senior Adviser to HM Treasury on Financial Stability and is a member of the UK’s new interim Financial Policy Committee. He has also acted as an independent adviser to overseas public authorities in relation to financial stability and crisis prevention issues. He has been at various times a member of many international groups linked to the G20, the Financial Stability Board, and the Bank for International Settlements. In 2005 he co-chaired, with Walter Kielholz, a G30 Study Group looking at the systemic impact of reinsurance. He holds degrees from Cambridge University and the London School of Economics. Sir Andrew Large retired in 2006 as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England where he had served since 2002. He now acts independently for central banks and governments in relation to financial stability and crisis prevention issues. Andrew Large’s career has covered a wide range of senior positions in the world of global finance, within both the private and public sectors. He is in addition Chairman of the Senior Advisory Board of Oliver Wyman, Senior Adviser to the Hedge Fund Standards Board, Chairman of the Advisory Committee of Marshall Wace, and Chairman of the Board Risk Committee of Axis, Bermuda. ISBN 1-56708-154-1 Copies of this paper are available for $10 from: The Group of Thirty 1726 M Street, N.W., Suite 200 Washington, D.C. -
O Ccasional P Aper 95
Is This the Beginning of the End of Central Bank Independence? Kenneth Rogoff Occasional Paper 95 GROUP OF THIRTY WASHINGTON, D.C. About the Author Kenneth Rogoff is Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy at Harvard University. From 2001 to 2003, Rogoff served as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. His 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, has been widely cited by academics, policymakers, and journalists. One regularity that Reinhart and Rogoff illustrate in their book is the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the run-up and the aftermath of severe financial crises. Rogoff’s most recent book is The Curse of Cash, which looks at the past, present, and future of currency, from the first standardized coinage to negative interest rate policy to the impact of cryptocurrencies on the global financial system. Rogoff is also known for his seminal work on exchange rates and on central bank independence. His treatise Foundations of International Macroeconomics (jointly with Maurice Obstfeld) is the standard graduate text in the field worldwide. His monthly syndicated column on global economic issues is published in over 50 countries. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Rogoff is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Group of Thirty. Rogoff is among the top eight on RePEc’s (Research Papers in Economics’) ranking of economists by scholarly citations. He is also an international grandmaster of chess. DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not represent the views of the Group of Thirty, its members, or their respective institutions. -
News Release
Press Office Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH T 020 7601 4411 F 020 7601 5460 [email protected] www.bankofengland.co.uk 18 September 2003 Appointments at the Bank of England The Bank of England today announces the following changes: Alastair Clark is to become Adviser to the Governor with special responsibility for liaison between the Bank and the financial sector. This new role is a key part of the Bank's plans to introduce a broader and more systematic approach to its contacts with the City and the wider financial community. Mr Clark will continue as a member of the Bank's Executive Team. Nigel Jenkinson, at present Deputy Director for Monetary Analysis, is to succeed Mr Clark as Executive Director for Financial Stability on 1 October. Merlyn Lowther will be retiring from the Bank after 28 years service, the past five as Chief Cashier. Court has approved the creation of a new position of Executive Director for Banking Services, and Andrew Bailey, currently Head of the Bank's International Economic Analysis Division, has been appointed to this role, with effect from 1 January 2004. He will additionally have the title of Chief Cashier. Peter Rodgers will become Director of Communications on 1 October. Andrew Wardlow will succeed him as Secretary of the Bank and will remain Chief Press Officer. Notes to Editors With these changes the Bank has completed the creation of its new executive team, and has removed a layer of management. The Executive Team replaces the two previous groups: the Governor's Committee and the Management Committee. -
9073 CER Annual Report 2012 LOW RES.Indd
Annual Report 2012 CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORM 9073 CER annual report cover NOT TO PRINT12 GB.indd All Pages 04/02/2013 17:41 About the CER The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT, We regard European integration as largely benefi cial but recognise that in many respects TOP TO BOTTOM: the Union does not work well. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities Edward Burke globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. The CER aims to promote an open, Hugo Brady outward-looking and eff ective European Union. Katinka Barysch Susannah Murray Through our meetings, seminars and conferences, we bring together people from the worlds Simon Tilford of politics and business, as well as other opinion-formers. Most of our events are by invitation Philip Whyte only and off the record, to ensure a high level of debate. Clara Marina O’Donnell John Springford The conclusions of our research and seminars are refl ected in our publications, as well as in Kate Mullineux the private papers and briefi ngs that senior offi cials, ministers and commissioners ask us to Catherine Hoye provide. Charles Grant and Stephen Tindale The CER is an independent, private, not-for-profi t organisation. We are not affi liated to any government, political party or European institution. Our work is funded mainly by donations from the private sector. The CER’s work programme is centred on eight themes: The euro, economics and fi nance China and Russia Energy and climate EU institutions and policies EU foreign policy and defence Justice and home aff airs Enlargement and neighbourhood Britain and the EU 9073 annual_report12_1feb13 TEXT GB2.indd 1 07/02/2013 11:06 Britain’s slide towards the EU exit by Charles Grant The CER has never been a think-tank focused on Britain. -
The Royal Economic Society Agenda
THE ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING of the Society will be held in Room Jubilee 144 of the Jubilee Building, University of Sussex, BN1 9SL on Tuesday 22nd March 2016 at 12.30. AGENDA 1. To adopt the Minutes of the 2015 Annual General Meeting (attached) 2. To receive and consider the Report of the Secretary on the activities of the Society 3. To receive the annual statement of accounts for 2015 4. To discuss and decide questions in regard to the affairs and management of the Society a. To ratify the Executive Committee Statement of the alteration to the term of the Presidency (attached) 5. To elect Vice-Presidents and Councillors for the ensuing year (the current Councillors are listed.) a. Council recommends that Professor Andrew Chesher be ratified as President b. Council recommends that Professor Peter Neary be ratified as President-elect c. Following a ballot of the members of the Society, Council recommends the following six members be elected to serve on the Council until 2020: Professor Christian Dustmann (UCL) Professor Amelia Fletcher (UEA) Professor Rafaella Giacomini (UCL) Professor Beata Javorcick (Oxford) Professor Paola Manzini (St Andrews) Professor Tim Worrall (Edinburgh) 6. To appoint Auditors for the current year 7. Any Other Business Denise Osborn (Professor Emeritus, Manchester), Secretary-General. THE ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY Minutes of the Annual General Meeting of the Society held at University Place, the University of Manchester on Tuesday 31st March 2015 at 12.30. There were present: The President-elect Professor John Moore, the Honorary Treasurer, Mark Robson; the Secretary-General, Professor John Beath; the Secretary-General elect (Professor Denise Osborn), the Second Secretary (Robin Naylor), members of the Executive Committee and approximately 40 other members. -
The International Monetary and Financial
April 2016 The Bulletin Vol. 7 Ed. 4 Official monetary and financial institutions ▪ Asset management ▪ Global money and credit Lagarde’s lead Women in central banks Ezechiel Copic on gold’s boost from negative rates José Manuel González-Páramo on monetary policy Michael Kalavritinos on Latin American funds Christian Noyer on threat to London’s euro role Paul Tucker on geopolitics and the dollar You don’t thrive for 230 years by standing still. As one of the oldest, continuously operating financial institutions in the world, BNY Mellon has endured and prospered through every economic turn and market move since our founding over 230 years ago. Today, BNY Mellon remains strong and innovative, providing investment management and investment services that help our clients to invest, conduct business and transact with assurance in markets all over the world. bnymellon.com ©2016 The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. All rights reserved. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. The Bank of New York Mellon is supervised and regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services and the Federal Reserve and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The Bank of New York Mellon London branch is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Products and services referred to herein are provided by The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and its subsidiaries. Content is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide authoritative financial, legal, regulatory or other professional advice. -
Bank of England
Bank of England Annual Report 2001 Bank of England Annual Report 2001 Contents 3 Governor’s Foreword 6 The Court of Directors 8 Governance and Accountability 10 Organisation Overview 12 The Executive and Senior Management 14 The Bank’s Core Purposes 15 Review of Performance against Objectives and Strategy 28 Monetary Policy Committee Processes 33 Objectives and Strategy for 2001/02 34 Financial Framework for 2001/02 38 Personnel, Community Activities and Technical Assistance 43 Remuneration of Governors, Directors and MPC Members 47 Report from Members of Court 51 Risk Management 54 Report by the Non-Executive Directors 56 Report of the Independent Auditors 58 The Bank’s Financial Statements 58 Banking Department Profit and Loss Account 59 Banking Department Balance Sheet 60 Banking Department Cash Flow Statement 61 Notes to the Banking Department Financial Statements 85 Issue Department Statements of Account 86 Notes to the Issue Department Statements of Account 88 Addresses and Telephone Numbers Sir Edward George, Governor 2 Bank of England Annual Report 2001 Governor’s Foreword The past year has seen further steady progress for the UK economy as a whole. By the first 1 quarter of 2001, output was some 2 /2% higher than a year earlier, leaving the annual average rate of growth at around 3% since the recovery from recession began some nine years ago. Employment has continued to rise, to over 28 million on the latest LFS data – the highest number of people in work on record; and the rate of unemployment has continued to decline, to 3.3% on the claimant count – the lowest rate since August 1975. -
01 Keynes 1454
KEYNES LECTURE IN ECONOMICS Practical Issues in United Kingdom Monetary Policy, 2000–2005 STEPHEN NICKELL Fellow of the Academy 1. Introduction FOR THE KEYNES LECTURE, a discussion of the practicalities of UK macroeconomic policy seems particularly apposite. This lecture deals with some of the topics on which the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has spent a lot of time since I became a member in June 2000. Interestingly enough, these topics would typically not occupy much space in a text book on monetary economics. The three topics on which I shall focus are as follows: first, the rapid rise in household debt and its implications for monetary policy; second, the role of asset prices in monetary policy with particular reference to the recent UK housing boom; third, the implications of the switch in the inflation target at the end of 2003. Before moving on to the details, it is worth briefly noting how the MPC operates in the UK. We have a specific inflation target set by the Chancellor of the Exchequer which we are required to meet at all times. The target is symmetric in the sense that being below target is just as bad as being above target. To hit the inflation target we focus on a period between twelve months and thirty months into the future. We generate an MPC forecast every three months, conditioned by market expectations of the Bank of England’s official interest rate (the market curve). If this pro- duces forecasts such that inflation has a relatively high probability of Read at the Academy 20 September 2005.