CTC Sentinel 4

APRIL 2011 . VOL 4 . ISSUE 4 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT CTC SENTINel OBJECTIVE . RELEVANT . RIGOROUS Contents Saudi Arabia Moves to FEATURE ARTICLE 1 Saudi Arabia Moves to Maintain Maintain Regime Stability Regime Stability By Toby Craig Jones By Toby Craig Jones REPORTS 4 Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Reaction to Revolution in the Middle East By Nelly Lahoud 7 How the Arab Spring Could Embolden Extremists By Philip Mudd 9 Are Islamist Extremists Fighting Among Libya’s Rebels? By Alison Pargeter 13 Bahrain: Crushing a Challenge to the Royal Family By Caryle Murphy 16 JI Operative Umar Patek Arrested in Pakistan By Zachary Abuza 18 The Implications of Colonel Imam’s Murder in Pakistan By Rahimullah Yusufzai Saudi King Abdullah has taken a number of steps to maintain regime stability in the kingdom. - Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images 20 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity audi arabia has not come Although it has been beset with the 24 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts through the recent unrest threat of militancy and terrorism, most sweeping the Middle East notably from al-Qaìda in the Arabian unchanged. The kingdom has yet Peninsula (AQAP), Saudi Arabia’s Sto see the kind of popular uprisings that political order has not been imperiled brought down regimes in Tunisia and seriously in recent years. Where Egypt and that are threatening autocrats dissidents elsewhere have been calling in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain. Yet for the overthrow of authoritarian leaders in Riyadh are deeply concerned governments, those calling for change about regional political developments About the CTC Sentinel in Saudi Arabia are more interested in and what it might mean for stability accommodation than revolution. Many of The Combating Terrorism Center is an at home. In an effort to preempt and the kingdom’s subjects have long called independent educational and research counter any potential challenges to their for political reform, but what most seem institution based in the Department of Social power, Saudi Arabia’s rulers are taking to prefer is a top-down reform process in Sciences at the United States Military Academy, a number of measures to head off a which the al-Saud ruling family open the West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses possible demonstration effect. It is likely political system to more participation, the Center’s global network of scholars and that these measures, a combination of but remain in place. Few desire to practitioners to understand and confront inducement and coercion, will hold off see the potential chaos that would contemporary threats posed by terrorism and domestic critics for now. The regime may result from a political vacuum, which other forms of political violence. also, however, be delaying the inevitable, might threaten the country’s ability to a moment when the kingdom’s rigid generate oil wealth. As of now, there The views expressed in this report are those of leadership will have to engage seriously are no indications that Saudi Arabia the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, with its own people on matters of is set to face the kind of youth-driven the Department of the Army, or any other agency governance, participation, and political popular mobilization that has rocked of the U.S. Government. opportunity. regimes elsewhere. This does not mean 1 APRIL 2011 . VOL 4 . ISSUE 4 the possibility should be dismissed organization or party dedicated to threatening statements by regime altogether. Saudi Arabia shares similar reform, mostly because formal political officials, produced the desired effect. social and demographic characteristics organizations are banned in Saudi With the exception of small protests of its vulnerable neighbors. The ranks of Arabia; reformers are forced into loose in predominantly Shià communities the unemployed youth—many of whom alliances and mostly rely on letter in the Eastern Province, would-be are bored, angry or both—are large and writing and petitions to press their protesters stayed home in Riyadh and might become restive. The potential for cause. With the exception of key figures elsewhere, and the Day of Rage ended their mobilization is hard to gauge, but such as Abdullah al-Hamad, who has without major incident. it is more than a theoretical possibility. gone further than most in calling for the creation of a constitutional monarchy, The depth of Saudi disquiet was further With the world’s largest crude oil reformers have preferred to keep a low demonstrated when it sent at least reserves, developments in Saudi Arabia public profile. Since their numbers are 1,000 of its military personnel into that threaten oil output could adversely hard to measure and because the most neighboring Bahrain to help crush affect the global economic recovery. prominent reformers have advanced This article reviews the calls for reform their agenda quietly, it is difficult to in Saudi Arabia, assesses the regime’s determine how much support they “Given the importance response, and identifies the special command in the kingdom. A wide range of the oil-rich Eastern circumstances in the Shià-populated of Saudi citizens claim to support the Eastern Province. idea of reform generally, but this does Province to both Saudi not necessarily equate to support for Arabia and the global Calls for Reform any particular figure or platform. Even though there is a reservoir of economy, the regime frustration with the country’s ruling The Regime Response is playing a risky elites, especially among the youth, Even though the reformers have what most Saudis aspire to see is the carefully calculated their tone and game. Greater levels of creation of a more even-handed system limited their demands, the country’s in which citizens have a greater share rulers have not only avoided dealing mobilization or efforts in decision-making and in which oil seriously with the substance of their to coordinate militancy wealth is distributed more equitably. position, but have responded as though Calls abound for an end to princely they are more sinister. Recent measures against the regime would corruption and excessive royal family undertaken by the al-Saud monarchy almost certainly include privilege, greater transparency in the in response to renewed calls for reform management of the economy, and a underscore the regime’s anxiety and efforts to upend oil real commitment to governance. Other demonstrate its unwillingness to share production.” demands are even more basic, such as power, its disinterest in engaging the call for greater rights for women, in political introspection or dealing an end to restrictions on free speech, seriously with thoughtful critics. By and for the government to stamp out closing off the possibility of change the pro-democracy movement there. discrimination and intolerance. Calls altogether, the government might The kingdom has consistently claimed for change have also been driven ultimately exaggerate the appeal of Iranian involvement in Bahrain and by frustrations with the state of the more confrontational options for those used the specter of sectarian politics as kingdom’s economy. Unemployment is alienated with the present order. Indeed, its justification for intervention. Equally officially at 10%, although estimates by imposing obstacles to political important, however, were worries that range as high as 25%, figures that do transformation and by punishing Saudis—Shià and Sunni alike—might not include women. While women can advocates for change, the kingdom’s be inspired by events so close to the work in the kingdom, there are severe rulers are running the longer term kingdom’s shores. restrictions on their ability to do so. risk of turning reformers, and those who support the calls for reform, into At home, the only political concession There is little that is radical about the revolutionaries. offered to those calling for reform reform movement in Saudi Arabia. is an empty one. In late March, the It consists primarily of intellectuals, Riyadh’s current anxieties stem directly government announced that it would academics, religious scholars and elite from the dramatic events that have hold elections for mostly powerless activists who have, for the most part, shaken the region in recent months. The municipal councils in September 2011. carefully avoided direct criticism of monarchy’s unease manifested most The elections were originally scheduled the royal family and have not called for clearly in mid-March 2011. In response to be held in 2009, but were postponed their ouster. Support for reform also to calls by Saudi activists on Facebook indefinitely for unclear reasons. The cuts across religious and class divides, and other social media outlets for a “Day announcement that they will go forward including Sunni Islamists, national of Rage” in Saudi Arabia on March 11, now (although women will still not be secularists (although they avoid the authorities intensified the presence of allowed to vote) is a cynical gesture on label), Shià and women. Support for the police and security across the country the part of a regime deeply disinterested reform position is spread geographically. to foreclose the possibility of protests. in meaningful change. Yet there is no centrally coordinated The massive show of force, along with 2 APRIL 2011 . VOL 4 . ISSUE 4 In addition to projection of force and the In fact, it appears that not even the The Troubles in the Eastern Province explicit threat of violence, the regime kingdom’s leaders believe the massive One area of the country where the also promised a series of economic financial reform program will be national strategy has so far failed to measures aimed to address the social sufficient in deflecting calls for change. compel quiescence is in the oil-rich roots of frustration. On March 18, Instead, Riyadh is dusting off an old Eastern Province.

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