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State of Arizona Exceptional Event Documentation of a High Wind Dust Event PM10 Exceedance on July 29, 2016 in the Maricopa County PM10 Nonattainment Area

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State of Arizona Exceptional Event Documentation of a High Wind Dust Event PM10 Exceedance on July 29, 2016 in the Maricopa County PM10 Nonattainment Area State of Arizona Exceptional Event Documentation of a High Wind Dust Event PM10 Exceedance on July 29, 2016 in the Maricopa County PM10 Nonattainment Area Produced by: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Maricopa County Air Quality Department Maricopa Association of Governments DRAFT Report April 2017 July 29, 2016 High Wind Dust Event (Image source: http://www.12news.com/weather/monsoon/phoenix-area-cleaning-up-storm-damage/284542242) Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 6 Summary of the Exceptional Event ............................................................................................................ 6 Statutory and Regulatory Requirements ..................................................................................................... 7 Procedural Requirements ............................................................................................................................ 8 Mitigation Requirements ............................................................................................................................ 9 II. CONCEPTUAL MODEL ................................................................................................................... 10 Geographic Setting and Climate ............................................................................................................... 10 Geographic Setting ........................................................................................................................... 10 Climate ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Monsoon Season High Wind Dust Event Summary ................................................................................ 14 III. CLEAR CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP ............................................................................................... 21 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 21 Comparison of High Wind Dust Event Concentrations with Historical Concentrations ......................... 21 Chronological and Spatial Presentation of Wind, Visibility, and PM10 Concentration Data During the High Wind Dust Event in the Maricopa County PM10 Nonattainment Area ........................................... 25 Visibility Photos ....................................................................................................................................... 38 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................ 39 IV. NATURAL EVENT AND NOT REASONABLY CONTROLLABLE OR PREVENTABLE CRITERIA .................................................................................................................................................. 40 Natural Event ............................................................................................................................................ 40 Not Reasonably Controllable or Preventable ........................................................................................... 40 Identification of Natural and Anthropogenic Sources of Emissions ................................................ 42 Identification of Relevant Control Measures ................................................................................... 43 Implementation and Enforcement of Control Measures .................................................................. 45 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 47 V. SUMMARY CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 48 ii List of Tables Table 1-1. PM10 Monitors Affected by the High Wind Dust Event.............................................................. 6 3 Table 2-1. 24-Hour Average PM10 Concentrations (µg/m ) at Maricopa County and PM10 Nonattainment Area Monitors on July 22-August 5, 2016. .................................................................................................. 17 Table 3-1. Data Sets Used in the Creation of Chronological and Spatial Maps. ........................................ 25 Table 4-1. Control Measures included in the MAG 2012 Five Percent Plan for PM-10 for the Maricopa County Nonattainment Area. ....................................................................................................................... 44 iii List of Figures Figure 2-1. Maricopa County PM10 nonattainment area geographic setting and PM10 monitor locations. 11 Figure 2-2. Drainage basins of the State of Arizona. .................................................................................. 12 Figure 2-3 Phoenix monthly precipitation (top) and maximum temperature (bottom) climatology (source: National Weather Service). .......................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 2-4. Cross-section of a thunderstorm creating an outflow boundary and haboob (Desert Meteorology. Thomas T. Warner. 2004.) ................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2-5. Western states drought monitor as of July 26, 2016. ............................................................... 16 3 Figure 2-6. 24-hour average PM10 concentrations (µg/m ) at Maricopa County and nonattainment area monitors on July 22-August 5, 2016. ........................................................................................................... 18 Figure 2-7. Diurnal profile of monitors on July 29, 2016. .......................................................................... 19 Figure 2-8. Hourly average PM10 concentrations, maximum hourly 5-minute average wind speeds, and maximum hourly gusts as recorded at the exceeding Zuni Hills monitor.................................................... 20 Figure 3-1. Plot of 24-hour average PM10 concentrations at the Zuni Hills monitor, January 2011 – December 2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 3-2. Plot of annual hourly average PM10 concentrations (1/1/2011 – 12/31/2015), hourly average PM10 concentrations in July (2011 – 2015), and diurnal PM10 concentrations at the Zuni Hills monitor on the July 29, 2016 high wind dust event day. ................................................................................................ 24 Figure 3-3. July 29, 2016, 6:00 PM – 6:30 PM. ......................................................................................... 26 Figure 3-4. July 29, 2016, 6:30 PM – 7:00 PM. ......................................................................................... 27 Figure 3-5. July 29, 2016, 7:00 PM – 7:30 PM. ......................................................................................... 28 Figure 3-6. July 29, 2016, 7:30 PM – 8:00 PM. ......................................................................................... 29 Figure 3-7. July 29, 2016, 8:00 PM – 8:30 PM. ......................................................................................... 30 Figure 3-8. July 29, 2016, 8:30 PM – 9:00 PM. ......................................................................................... 31 Figure 3-9. July 29, 2016, 9:00 PM – 9:30 PM. ......................................................................................... 32 Figure 3-10. July 29, 2016, 9:30 PM – 10:00 PM. ..................................................................................... 33 Figure 3-11. July 29, 2016, 10:00 PM – 10:30 PM. ................................................................................... 34 Figure 3-12. July 29, 2016, 10:30 PM – 11:00 PM. ................................................................................... 35 Figure 3-13. July 29, 2016, 11:00 PM – 11:30 PM. ................................................................................... 36 Figure 3-14. July 29, 2016, 11:30 PM – 12:00 AM. ................................................................................... 37 Figure 3-15. Visibility photos on July 29, 2016 at 7:30, 7:45 and 8:00 PM, respectively. ........................ 38 Figure 4-1. Aerial photo of the immediate area upwind of the exceeding Zuni Hills monitor. .................. 43 iv List of Appendices Appendix A – ADEQ Forecast Products Appendix B – NWS Meteorological Observations Appendix C – Notice of Public Comment Period Appendix D – Exceptional Event Initial Notification Form v I. INTRODUCTION This documentation is being submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to demonstrate that an exceedance of the 24-hour PM10 standard at the Zuni Hills monitor in the Maricopa County PM10 nonattainment area on July 29, 2016 should be excluded from use in determinations of exceedances or violations of the 24-hour PM10 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) as an exceptional event caused by a high wind dust event. This documentation serves to meet the requirements of Clean Air Act Section 319(b) (Air quality monitoring data influenced by exceptional events) and the EPA final rule, Treatment of Data Influenced
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