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Tameside Housing Need Assessment (HNA) (2017) Provides the Latest Available Evidence to Help to Shape the Future Planning and Housing Policies of the Area

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Tameside Housing Need Assessment (HNA) (2017) Provides the Latest Available Evidence to Help to Shape the Future Planning and Housing Policies of the Area Tameside Housing Need Assessment (HNA) 2017 Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council Final Report December 2017 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2017 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 2 Table of contents Executive summary ......................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 8 The Housing Market Area (HMA) ........................................................................................ 8 The current housing market ................................................................................................ 9 Understanding the future housing market ....................................................................... 11 The need for all types of housing ...................................................................................... 11 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 14 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 15 Background and objectives ............................................................................................... 15 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) and other requirements ........................................................................................................... 15 Definitions ......................................................................................................................... 16 Geography ......................................................................................................................... 18 Greater Manchester strategic context .............................................................................. 19 Data analysis and presentation ......................................................................................... 20 Research methodology ..................................................................................................... 22 Report structure ................................................................................................................ 22 2. Understanding the Housing Market.................................................................................. 24 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 24 Tameside strategic context ............................................................................................... 24 House prices and rates of change in house prices ............................................................ 26 Migration and self-containment ....................................................................................... 30 Commuting patterns ......................................................................................................... 32 Concluding comments ....................................................................................................... 33 3. Tameside housing market review ..................................................................................... 35 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 35 Property profile ................................................................................................................. 35 Tenure characteristics ....................................................................................................... 43 Relative affordability of housing options .......................................................................... 73 4. Understanding the future housing market in Tameside ................................................... 80 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 80 Key market drivers ............................................................................................................ 80 Past trends in housing delivery ......................................................................................... 84 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ............................................ 85 Future executive housing development ........................................................................... 87 Concluding comments ....................................................................................................... 95 December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 3 5. The need for all types of housing ...................................................................................... 96 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 96 Current households in need .............................................................................................. 96 Family housing................................................................................................................. 102 Armed forces accommodation ........................................................................................ 104 Older persons housing .................................................................................................... 104 Households with specific needs ...................................................................................... 112 Homeless and previously homeless households ............................................................ 113 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 115 6. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ........................................................................... 117 The Housing Market Area ............................................................................................... 117 The current housing market ............................................................................................ 117 Future housing market .................................................................................................... 118 Housing need and demand ............................................................................................. 118 NPPF requirements ......................................................................................................... 120 Final comments ............................................................................................................... 121 Introduction to Technical Appendices ........................................................................................ 122 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ........................................................................... 123 Overall approach ............................................................................................................. 123 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors ..................................... 123 Interviews with estate and letting agents ....................................................................... 125 Technical Appendix B: Housing policy review ............................................................................. 126 National housing reviews ................................................................................................ 141 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations ...................................................................... 142 Summary of contents ...................................................................................................... 142 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 143 Stage 1: Current need .................................................................................................... 146 Stage 2: Future housing need ........................................................................................ 150 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ................................................................................ 151 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need ..................................................................... 153 Total net imbalance ......................................................................................................... 154 Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings .............................................. 154 Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating ....................................................................... 158 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ..................................................................................................... 158 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 158 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements ................. 158 December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 4 Concluding comments ..................................................................................................... 160 Technical Appendix E: National Planning Policy
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