Tameside Housing Need Assessment (HNA) (2017) Provides the Latest Available Evidence to Help to Shape the Future Planning and Housing Policies of the Area

Housing Need Assessment (HNA)

2017

Final Report December 2017

Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk

Table of contents Executive summary ...... 8 Introduction ...... 8 The Housing Market Area (HMA) ...... 8 The current housing market ...... 9 Understanding the future housing market ...... 11 The need for all types of housing ...... 11 Conclusion ...... 14 1. Introduction ...... 15 Background and objectives ...... 15 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) and other requirements ...... 15 Definitions ...... 16 Geography ...... 18 Greater Manchester strategic context ...... 19 Data analysis and presentation ...... 20 Research methodology ...... 22 Report structure ...... 22 2. Understanding the Housing Market...... 24 Introduction ...... 24 Tameside strategic context ...... 24 House prices and rates of change in house prices ...... 26 Migration and self-containment ...... 30 Commuting patterns ...... 32 Concluding comments ...... 33 3. Tameside housing market review ...... 35 Introduction ...... 35 Property profile ...... 35 Tenure characteristics ...... 43 Relative affordability of housing options ...... 73 4. Understanding the future housing market in Tameside ...... 80 Introduction ...... 80 Key market drivers ...... 80 Past trends in housing delivery ...... 84 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ...... 85 Future executive housing development ...... 87 Concluding comments ...... 95

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5. The need for all types of housing ...... 96 Introduction ...... 96 Current households in need ...... 96 Family housing...... 102 Armed forces accommodation ...... 104 Older persons housing ...... 104 Households with specific needs ...... 112 Homeless and previously homeless households ...... 113 Summary ...... 115 6. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ...... 117 The Housing Market Area ...... 117 The current housing market ...... 117 Future housing market ...... 118 Housing need and demand ...... 118 NPPF requirements ...... 120 Final comments ...... 121 Introduction to Technical Appendices ...... 122 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ...... 123 Overall approach ...... 123 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors ...... 123 Interviews with estate and letting agents ...... 125 Technical Appendix B: Housing policy review ...... 126 National housing reviews ...... 141 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations ...... 142 Summary of contents ...... 142 Introduction ...... 143 Stage 1: Current need ...... 146 Stage 2: Future housing need ...... 150 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ...... 151 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need ...... 153 Total net imbalance ...... 154 Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings ...... 154 Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating ...... 158 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ...... 158 Introduction ...... 158 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements ...... 158

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Concluding comments ...... 160 Technical Appendix E: National Planning Policy Framework and Planning Practice Guidance Checklist ...... 161 National Planning Policy Framework ...... 161 Planning Practice Guidance ...... 161

List of figures Figure 2.1 Median house price trends 2000 to 2016: Tameside, the North West and England ...... 27 Figure 3.1 Property type by ward ...... 37 Figure 3.2 Property size by ward ...... 38 Figure 3.3 Tameside tenure profile of occupied dwellings ...... 41 Figure 3.4 Tameside tenure profile by ward ...... 42 Figure 3.5 Tameside Metropolitan Borough household income and housing costs comparison ...... 79 Figure 4.1 Summary of household income by household type ...... 83 Figure 4.2 Dwelling completions compared with the annual target ...... 84 Figure 4.3 Current stock versus suggested future market development ...... 86

List of tables Table ES1 Tenure split by ward...... 9 Table ES2 Suggested dwelling mix by market and affordable dwellings based on OAN of 680 each year ...... 12 Table 2.1 House prices in Tameside 2016 by ward...... 29 Table 2.2 Comparative median house prices and price change in neighbouring areas, the North West and England ...... 30 Table 2.3 Flows of residents (all moves) ...... 31 Table 2.4 Containment ratios ...... 32 Table 2.5 Tameside 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74) ...... 32 Table 3.1 Dwelling stock by ward ...... 35 Table 3.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings across Tameside ...... 36 Table 3.3 Age of dwelling ...... 39 Table 3.4 Dwelling stock condition in England and Tameside estimates ...... 40 Table 3.5 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to be affordable ...... 43 Table 3.6 Take-up of Help to Buy products in Greater Manchester authorities ...... 49

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Table 3.7 Profile of private rented sector in Tameside ...... 51 Table 3.8 Private sector rental prices in Tameside 2010-2016 ...... 52 Table 3.10 Housing Affordability estimates ...... 68 Table 3.11 Cost of alternative tenure options by Ward ...... 74 Table 3.11 Cost of alternative tenure options by Ward ...... 75 Table 3.12 Annual income required for alternative tenure options by ward ...... 76 Table 3.12 Annual income required for alternative tenure options by ward ...... 77 Table 3.13 Assumptions in assessing income required for alternative tenure options ...... 78 Table 4.1 Primary market drivers ...... 80 Table 4.2 Projected population change, 2017 to 2039 ...... 81 Table 4.3 Dwelling completions 2006/07 to 2015/16 ...... 84 Table 4.4 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...... 85 Table 4.5 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...... 86 Table 4.6 Open market dwelling stock and preferences for higher income households ..... 87 Table 4.7 Comparison between current dwelling stock and market aspirations ...... 89 Table 4.8 Comparison between current dwelling stock and market expectations ...... 91 Table 4.9 Current market dwelling stock profile and requirements based on household aspirations and expectations ...... 93 Table 5.1 Summary of current housing need across Tameside ...... 97 Table 5.2 Households in need by ward ...... 98 Table 5.3 Housing need by tenure ...... 98 Table 5.4 Housing need by household type ...... 99 Table 5.5 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by ward, property size and designation 2017/18 to 2027/28 ...... 100 Table 5.6 Affordable housing tenure options: existing and newly-forming households ... 101 Table 5.7 Property type preferences ...... 101 Table 5.8 Suggested dwelling mix by market and affordable dwellings based on OAN of 680 each year ...... 102 Table 5.9 Property type preferences – Families ...... 103 Table 5.10 Older persons’ housing options ...... 105 Table 5.11 Reasons why households with a HRP aged 65 and over are unable to move .... 105 Table 5.12 Future housing expectations (upsizing/downsizing) ...... 106 Table 5.13 Older persons’ dwelling requirements 2014 to 2035 ...... 107 Table 5.14 Future market split of older persons’ accommodation by relative deprivation/affluence of an area ...... 108

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Table 5.15 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by age group ...... 108 Table 5.16 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by when required ... 108 Table 5.17 Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years by age group ...... 109 Table 5.18 Illness/disability by Ward ...... 111 Table A1 Total Household Survey responses ...... 124 Table C1 CLG Needs Assessment Summary for Tameside Metropolitan Borough ...... 144 Table C2 CLG Needs Assessment Summary by Ward ...... 145 Table C3 Summary of current housing need across Tameside ...... 146 Table C4 Summary of current need by Ward ...... 147 Table C5 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2009/10 to 2015/16 ...... 148 Table C6 Lower quartile house prices by Ward ...... 150 Table C8 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by ward, property size and designation 2017/18 to 2027/28 ...... 154 Table C9 Affordable housing tenure options: existing and newly-forming households ... 155 Table C10 Ability of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing to afford intermediate tenure dwellings ...... 156 Table C11 Property type preferences ...... 156 Table C12 Property type preferences by ward ...... 157

List of maps Map 1.1 Tameside location and geographical context ...... 18 Map 1.2 Tameside Metropolitan Borough within its strategic context (Greater Manchester) ...... 20 Map 1.3 Tameside wards ...... 21 Map 2.3 Median house prices 2016 by ward ...... 28 Map 3.1 Median rents 2016 by ward ...... 53 Map 3.2 The summary affordability distribution ...... 69 Map 3.3 Sub £500 affordability distribution ...... 70 Map 3.4 The sub £500 up to £1,350 affordability distribution ...... 71 Map 3.5 The over £1,350 affordability distribution ...... 72

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Please note that in this report some of the tables include rounded figures. This can result in some column or row totals not adding up to 100 or to the anticipated row or column ‘total’ due to the use of rounded decimal figures. We include this description here as it covers all tables and associated textual commentary included. If tables or figures are to be used in- house then we recommend the addition of a similarly worded statement being included as a note to each table used.

This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party. arc4 Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for, and makes no representation or warranty with respect to, the accuracy or completeness of any third party information (including data) that is contained in this document.

December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 8 Executive summary Introduction The Tameside Housing Need Assessment (HNA) (2017) provides the latest available evidence to help to shape the future planning and housing policies of the area. The study will help inform the production of the Council’s local plan and housing strategy. This research provides an up-to-date analysis of the social, economic, housing and demographic situation across the area. The HNA (2017) contains:  A review of existing (secondary) data;  Analysis of the findings of a household survey, completed by 3,401 households, representing a 10.5% response rate;  A consideration of the findings of interviews with estate and lettings agents;  An assessment of housing need and affordable housing requirements; and  Analysis of the housing needs of specific groups of people. The findings from the study provide an up-to-date, robust and defensible evidence base for policy development which conforms to the Government’s National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and Planning Practice Guidance (PPG), Housing and economic development needs assessments.

The Housing Market Area (HMA) Tameside’s Housing Market Area (HMA) exhibits a degree of distinctiveness compared with neighbouring areas as measured by median price change 2000-2016 at a lower rate than most neighbouring local authority areas within Greater Manchester, but very similar to those for both the region and England as a whole. The Tameside HMA is considered to be self-contained from the perspective of migration but in terms of travel-to-work trends there is a high level of out-commuting by the working population. Only 54.9% of the employed population work within the Metropolitan Borough, with 19.5% commuting into the City of Manchester, 9.5% into Stockport and 5.4% into Oldham. By contrast, levels of in-commuting are relatively low, with 67.7% of those who work in Tameside also being resident within the area. Interactions with several neighbouring areas are recognised particularly in terms of commuting flows, as also highlighted in the GM SHMA (October 2016). There was a high level of commuting from Tameside into Manchester which results in a lower commuter self- containment rate for Tameside. In conclusion, from a migration perspective, Tameside can be considered to be a self-contained Housing Market Area. However, commuting patterns show that it is not self-contained but is part of the wider economic functional area of the Greater Manchester city region.

December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 9 The current housing market The aim of the Tameside housing market review is to explore the housing market dynamics of Tameside. The evidence is based upon household survey data, secondary data and information from stakeholders. The study finds that there are 104,840 households and 101,330 dwellings in Tameside Metropolitan Borough. There are 1,851 vacant homes (of which 1,043 are long term vacant) and 156 second homes. The overall vacancy rate is around 1.8%, which is lower than the national vacancy rate of 2.6% across England. Overall, the vast majority (81.5%) of occupied properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/apartments and maisonettes, 5.9% are bungalows, and 0.7% are other types of property including park homes/caravans. Of all occupied properties, 7.2% have one bedroom/bedsit, 32.0% have two bedrooms, 46.4% have three bedrooms and 14.3% have four or more bedrooms. The Household Survey 2017 found that 63.4% of occupied dwellings are owner occupied, 14.2% private rented and 22.4% affordable. Table ES1 shows the tenure split by ward.

Table ES1 Tenure split by ward Tenure of occupied housing stock (%) Ward Owner occupied Private rented affordable Ashton Hurst 64.5 9.9 25.6 Ashton St Michael's 60.1 22.1 17.8 Ashton Waterloo 63.9 11.5 24.5 Audenshaw 72.2 12.0 15.9 Denton North East 70.3 17.0 12.7 Denton South 54.1 9.8 36.1 Denton West 83.0 10.7 6.3 Droylsden East 66.1 16.0 17.9 Droylsden West 72.6 17.1 10.3 Dukinfield 58.1 14.3 27.6 Dukinfield Stalybridge 67.6 11.4 21.0 Hyde Godley 55.8 14.5 29.7 Hyde Newton 60.5 12.8 26.7 Hyde Werneth 76.5 14.4 9.1 Longdendale 58.8 11.2 30.0 Mossley 68.5 17.3 14.2 St Peter's 36.7 20.3 43.0 Stalybridge North 56.8 12.9 30.3 Stalybridge South 71.9 12.7 15.3 Tameside Total 63.4% 14.2% 22.4% Source: Household Survey 2017

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Owner occupation 63.4% of occupied dwellings are owner-occupied (66,426), some 30.1% of all households (31,542) own outright and 33.3% of all households (34,884) have a mortgage. 19.8% of owner occupied homes are detached and 41.8% are semi-detached, while only 1.8% are flats/apartments. In 2016, median house prices across Tameside Metropolitan Borough were £112,000 and lower quartile prices were £83,500. For lower quartile or entry-level house prices (owner occupation) the minimum income required is £23,143. However, this is a Borough average and house prices (and the associated income requirements to achieve owner occupation) vary significantly between wards. In terms of household profile, over one-third (34.5%) of owner occupiers are couples with children and a quarter (25.4%) are couples without children. Most Household Reference People (HRPs) living in owner occupation are in employment (67.7%) and a further 26.9% are retired. Incomes tend to be high, with around 37.0% of households earning over £500 per week/£2,167 per annum. Estate agents told us that the home purchase market is buoyant and looks likely to continue to be so. The feedback from agents is that housing markets in 2017 have largely recovered from the last recession with sales increasing gradually over the past three years. House prices are rising but are still lower than the average for nearby Greater Manchester. Demand is buoyant, with the greatest demand for detached and semi-detached houses with three or four bedrooms and gardens, and across the area demand for this type of property generally exceeds supply. Private rented sector 14.2% (14,916) of occupied dwellings are private rented (including tied accommodation and student housing). While three-quarters (75.1%) of privately rented properties are houses, only 3.9% are detached while 47.7% are terraced. 21.2% are flats and maisonettes. Median rents across the Metropolitan Borough were £524 per month and lower quartile rents were £477 per month (in 2016). The minimum indicative income required is £22,896 for lower quartile or entry-level renting in the Metropolitan Borough as a whole. In terms of household characteristics, over one-third of privately renting households (35.4%) are couples with children. A further 21.5% are lone parents. Hence over half of PRS properties include children. Letting agents told us that the rental market in Tameside has grown considerably over recent years. The volume of properties available for rent has increased through greater interest from investors (especially buy-to-let investors). There is a good supply of all types of rental properties which are in high demand in all of the towns in the Borough. Agents felt that rental demand looks likely to continue to be very strong. Affordable housing 22.4% of households (23,498) live in affordable accommodation. Houses account for 57.0% of occupied affordable stock, while 34.2% are flats/apartments. 26.3% of affordable dwellings have one bedroom, 41.2% have two bedrooms, 29.8% have three bedrooms and 2.7% have four or more bedrooms. 18.6% of households living in affordable accommodation are couples with children and 18.5% are lone parents. 20.8% are older singles and couples. 46.1% of HRPs

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Understanding the future housing market A number of key market drivers will continue to influence the operation of the Tameside Metropolitan Borough Housing Market Area. In terms of demographic drivers, an increasing population size is forecast, with a projected 7.4% increase (16,400 additional people) between 2017 and 20391. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 30.2% (19,000 additional people), with the proportion of the total population aged 65 and over increasing from 17.8% of the population in 2017 to 24.5% of the population in 2039. The proportion of the total population aged 80 years and over is projected to increase from 4.3% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2039. The 2017 Household Survey indicates that the following range of household groups currently live in Tameside: singles under 65 (6.2%); couples (under 65 with no children) (23.1%); couples with children under 18 (23.7%); couples with adult children (8.8%); couples 65 or over (10.7%); singles aged 65 or over (8.9%), lone parents with children under 18 (8.4%); lone parents with adult children (5.0%) and other household types including students (5.2%). The delivery of new build housing (all tenures) has fluctuated since 2006/07. The highest number completed was in 2007/08 (789) and the lowest was in 2009/10 (253). The average over the ten-year period was 444 completions. The HNA has included an analysis of the aspirations and expectations of households intending to move, compared with the existing dwelling stock in Tameside. Development more reflective of household expectation would result in developing three and four-bedroom houses along with bungalows as demand (measured by aspirations and expectations) for these dwelling types exceeds the current stock profile supply.

The need for all types of housing According to our survey some 9,589 existing households are in housing need (9.1% of all households). Reasons for housing need are mostly in relation to a mismatch of housing need and dwellings - overcrowding, sharing facilities and unsuitable accommodation. The highest levels of housing need are seen in Ashton Waterloo (16.6%) and Denton North East (15.9%), in the private rented sector and amongst lone parent, large family households and other types of households. The Household Survey identified 883 households who had been previously homeless or living in temporary accommodation and had moved to their present accommodation in the past five years. These were mostly couples with children and lone parents, now living in houses within the private rented sector.

1 According to ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections

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Dwelling mix and affordability The NPPF (paragraph 159) states that local authorities should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the Plan period. Table ES2 below provides our recommendation on the potential dwelling tenure, type and size split for housing delivery in Tameside. This assumes that 15% of homes delivered are affordable based on past trends in affordable delivery.

Table ES2 Suggested dwelling mix by market and affordable dwellings based on OAN of 680 each year Overall dwelling size mix Market Affordable Total Overall tenure split 85 15 100 House 1-2 Bed 124 32 156 House 3+ Bed 249 37 286 House 4+ Bed 129 3 132 Bungalow 30 10 40 Flat/Apartment 34 20 54 Other 12 0 12 Total 578 102 680 Source: arc4

People wishing to build their own homes The 2017 Household Survey identified 83 households planning to move in the next five years who would like to move into a self-build property. The Household Survey identified the characteristics of households considering self-build:  All were all owner occupier households;  All were couples under 65;  All were on incomes of over £950 per week;  Mainly aspired towards two bedrooms.

Family housing Families (that is couples and lone parents with children including adult children living at home) account for around 46.0% of households across Tameside. Of this number, 32.1% are couples and lone parents with dependent children and 13.9% are parents with adult children (2017 Household Survey data). The main property type occupied by families was semi-detached properties (around 42.0%). Around half of all family households would like a detached property but only 17.7% expect a detached a property. In comparison only 3.2% would like a flat / apartment but 11.9% would expect to move to this type of property.

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The evidence shows that families are more likely to live in unsuitable housing or experience homelessness. 60.8% of all families are in some form of housing need, compared with 9.1% across all households in Tameside.

Armed forces accommodation The 2011 Census identified that 522 residents in Tameside Metropolitan Borough are employed in the Armed Forces. The 2017 Household Survey found that 66.7% of Armed Forces households live in owner occupation and 33.3% live in a property rented from a housing association. The highest proportion of armed forces employees lived in Longdendale (3.1%). The 2017 report by the University of Salford (Meeting the Housing Needs of the Armed Forces Community in Tameside) acknowledges the challenges many ex-Armed Forces personnel face in returning to civilian life and identifies housing as a key area where the Armed Forces community require support. The report makes a range of recommendations, including exploring Supported Living networks as a means of enabling the Armed Forces community to support each other whilst living among the wider community.

Older people A major strategic challenge is to ensure a range of appropriate housing provision, adaptation and support for the area’s older population. PPG paragraph 21 states that ‘the need to provide housing for older people is critical given the projected increase in the number of households aged 65 and over accounts for over half of new households’. The number of people across Tameside Metropolitan Borough area aged 65 or over is projected to increase from 39,600 in 2017 to 58,600 by 2039 (a 48.0% increase) according to the ONS 2014-based population projections. The 2017 Household Survey identifies that the majority of older people (61.3%) want to stay in their own homes with help and support when needed. Renting sheltered accommodation (22.7%) and renting from a housing association (21.6%) were the most popular alternative options. Of all older person households (HRP aged 65+), 10.8% would like to move in the next 5 years; 6.2% would like to move but are unable to; and 83.0% do not want to move. Of households who are unable to move, reasons stated included 57.6% could not afford to, 26.4% a lack of suitable properties in the area wanted and 24.8% a lack of suitable properties of the type wanted. Information from Housing Learning and Information Network (LIN) estimates that over the period 2014 to 2035, there is expected to be a 157% increase in the requirement for older persons’ specialist provision. However, when the current (2014) supply of accommodation is compared with change in demand to 2035, data would suggest a need to increase the current level of provision for older people, particularly the provision of Extra Care 24/7 support and sheltered housing. The Household Survey asked respondents whether they need assistance or adaptations to their home, either now or in the next five years. In respect of the 65+ cohort, the assistance considered most important included help with practical tasks (26.1%) and help with repair and

December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 14 maintenance of the home (17.3%). Adaptations considered most important included adaptations to bathrooms (16.8%) and better heating (13.2%). This evidence suggests a need to continue to diversify the range of older persons’ housing provision. Additionally, providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the potential to free-up larger family accommodation.

Households with specific needs In terms of clients with specific needs accommodated in social rented housing across Tameside, evidence shows that older people with support needs (an average of 231 per year) and homeless families with support needs (118 average per year) are the main groups provided for.

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic households The 2011 Census reports that 91.5% of residents are White British. A further 3.4% are Asian/Asian British, 1.5% are White Central/Eastern European and 1.4% are other White groups. The most ethnically diverse ward in Tameside is St Peters, where 22.4% of Household Reference People have an ethnicity other than White British. 47.6% are owner occupiers, 27.3% rent privately and 25.0% live in affordable housing (social rented or intermediate tenures) (compared with 63.4%, 14.5% and 22.2% respectively across all households). 23.3% BAME households were in some form of housing need (compared with 9.1% of all households), with key needs factors being overcrowding. The 2011 Census identified no one with Gypsy and Traveller ethnicity. The CLG Traveller Caravan Count (July 2017) identified a total of 3 caravans in Tameside. All 3 were private caravans with temporary planning permission.

Conclusion The evidence presented in this HNA suggests that there are three main policy areas that require special attention from both a planning policy and social policy perspective:  The challenge of enabling the quantity and mix of housing that needs to be delivered;  The challenge of ensuring that the housing and support needs of older people are met going forward; and  The challenge of driving up the quality of the private rented sector and increasing the sustainability of tenancies.

December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 15 1. Introduction Background and objectives 1.1 This Housing Need Assessment (HNA) for Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council (‘the Council’) has been commissioned to provide an up-to-date evidence base to help shape the future planning and housing policies and strategies for the area. This work complements strategic housing work prepared for the Greater Manchester Strategic Framework. 1.2 The HNA supports the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF, March 2012) and Planning Practice Guidance (PPG), Housing and economic development needs assessments, which replace previous guidance including the DCLG Housing Need Assessment Guidance (Version 2, 2007). 1.3 This HNA includes a review of the Housing Market Area definition, a housing market review, consideration of housing market drivers, housing need and affordable housing requirements along with the need for all types of housing. 1.4 Along with separate work on Objectively Assessed Housing Need (OAN) and the housing requirement, the overall evidence base will satisfy the requirements of the NPPF and PPG.

National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) and other requirements 1.5 The NPPF and PPG, Housing and economic development needs assessments, provide the planning policy context for this HNA. The key sections which need to be taken into account in the HNA are now summarised. 1.6 The NPPF (paragraph 159) states that Local Planning Authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area and they should prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. The SHMA should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the Plan period that:  Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change;  Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and  Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand. 1.7 PPG (paragraph 2) sets out that ‘the primary objective of identifying need is to identify the future quantity of housing needed, including a breakdown by type, tenure, and size.’

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1.8 PPG (paragraph 8) states that housing needs should be assessed in relation to the relevant functional area i.e. Housing Market Area and this may identify smaller sub- markets with specific features and it may be appropriate to investigate these specifically in order to create a detailed picture of local need. It is also important to recognise that there are 'market segments' i.e. not all housing types have the same appeal to different occupants. 1.9 The NPPF (paragraph 47) makes it clear that local planning authorities should ‘use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing’. The HNA 2017 will provide robust evidence to help the Council ‘plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community’ and will ‘identify the size, type tenure and range of housing that is required in particular locations, reflecting local demand’ (NPPF paragraph 50). 1.10 The NPPF and the Localism Act 2011 both introduced the Duty to Co-operate as a replacement for Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). Section 110 of the Localism Act requires local authorities to co-operate with other local authorities in maximising the effectiveness with which strategic matters within development plan documents are prepared. The provision of housing development is a strategic priority and the Council will have to ensure that they are legally compliant with the Localism Act at Examination. The Duty to Co-operate applies to all local planning authorities, working with neighbouring authorities and other bodies, including Local Enterprise Partnerships, on strategic priorities. It also means collaborating on the evidence critical to understanding the needs of your area, and the wider economic and Housing Market Areas, including through the preparation of a Housing Need Assessment. 1.11 Technical Appendix E provides a checklist of how the HNA satisfies the requirements of the NPPF and PPG.

Definitions 1.12 PPG (paragraph 3) provides a broad definition of need for housing: ‘…the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that is likely to be needed in the housing market area over the Plan period – and should cater for the housing demand of the area and identify the scale of housing supply necessary to meet that demand.’ 1.13 Affordable housing need is defined in PPG (paragraph 22) as: ‘…the number of households and projected households who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market.’ 1.14 For the purposes of this study, the term housing need refers to:

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‘…the housing that households are willing and able to buy or rent, either from their own resources or with assistance from the state’2. 1.15 Definitions relating to affordable housing are set out in the NPPF (March 2012):  Affordable Housing: Social Rented, Affordable Rented and Intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision.  Social Rented housing is owned by local authorities and private Registered Providers (as defined in Section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency.  Affordable Rented housing is let by local authorities or private Registered Providers of social housing to households who are eligible for Social Rented housing. Affordable rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable).  Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above Social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low-cost homes for sale and Intermediate rent, but not Affordable Rented housing.  Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning. 1.16 These definitions of affordable housing are correct at the time of publication of this report (mid-2017), although revisions to the NPPF are anticipated. Additionally, councils are required to provide Starter Homes under the provisions of the Housing and Planning Act 20163. The NPPF (2012) outlined the key characteristics of Starter Homes4 and the Housing and Planning Act 2016 officially introduced Starter Homes into legislation, defined in Section 2 of the Act as:  new dwellings available for purchase by ‘qualifying first-time buyers’ only; these are defined as people who don’t already own a home and who are aged 23-40; and  to be sold at a discount of at least 20% of their market value, and always for less than the price cap (currently set to £450,000 in Greater London; £250,000 outside London).

2 Planning Advisory Service Objectively Assessed Need and Housing Targets Technical Advice Note June 2014 3 The Government consulted on proposals to change the NPPF (December 2015) including the definitions of affordable housing 4 National Planning Policy Framework, paragraph 002, Reference ID 55-002-20150318

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1.17 Many of the details relating to Starter Homes are to be specified in forthcoming regulations (secondary legislation), which is still awaited following consultation in 20165.

Geography 1.18 Map 1.1 illustrates the geographical context of Tameside Metropolitan Borough, located within Greater Manchester in the North West of England. Lying directly east of the City of Manchester, Tameside shared borders with Oldham to the north, Stockport to the south and High Peak (Derbyshire) to the east. 1.19 Named after the River Tame, the Metropolitan Borough of Tameside includes the towns of Ashton-under-Lyne, Audenshaw, Denton, Droylsden, Dukinfield, Hyde, Mossley, Longdendale and Stalybridge. 1.20 In terms of connections, the M60 passes north-south through the western part of the Borough and the M67 passes east-west through the southern part of Tameside. Extensions to the Manchester Metrolink have allowed trams to run to Droylsden and Ashton in recent years, in addition to a considerable railway network with stations linked to Stockport, Sheffield, Manchester, Glossop and Huddersfield.

Map 1.1 Tameside location and geographical context

5 DCLG Starter Homes Regulations: Technical Consultation was published in March 2016

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Greater Manchester strategic context 1.21 Following the abolition of regional planning bodies and their associated strategies and targets, the last few years have seen ‘Local Enterprise Partnerships’ (LEPs) established across England to help empower locally-driven economic growth at a strategic level. In addition, ‘Combined Authorities’ (CA) have been established in several urban areas to assist in strategic collaboration. In some cases, this has included devolution and the election of regional mayors. 1.22 The Greater Manchester Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) brings together the private and public sectors to support business growth, develop local skills and innovation, direct investment and reform public services6. The LEP area covers the ten local authority areas of Greater Manchester, namely: Bolton; Bury; Manchester; Oldham; Rochdale; Salford; Stockport; Tameside; Trafford and Wigan. The LEP’s leadership board is made up of figures from across the public and private sectors. The LEP works in partnership with the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) and works through a range of delivery bodies. 1.23 The GMCA is made up of the ten metropolitan boroughs of Greater Manchester. It is run jointly by the leaders of the ten councils and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. 1.24 The LEP and GMCA jointly own the Greater Manchester Strategy. In 2013, the bodies published Stronger Together: Greater Manchester Strategy. This set out a series of priorities around the twin themes of growth and reform:  Delivering targeted investment based on market needs,  Revitalising Greater Manchester’s town centres,  Improving both integration of infrastructure planning and connectivity,  Placing Greater Manchester at the leading edge of science and technology,  Supporting business growth; improving international competitiveness, and  Reforming public service delivery to build independence and raise the productivity of residents.7 1.25 A review of the Greater Manchester Strategy has been undertaken and Our People, Our Place was published in October 2017 as the new plan for Greater Manchester. 1.26 The Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (GM SHMA) was prepared by Deloitte and GVA Grimley and published in December 2008. An Update Report was subsequently published in May 2010, to reflect the national and strategic changes that had taken place in the interim period, particularly the economic downturn and impact on housing and planning.

6 gmlep.com 7 https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/info/20067/greater_manchester_strategy

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1.27 Preparation for the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework (GMSF) included a public consultation on a first draft in late 2016. More than 27,000 responses were received and these are being taken into account in the preparation of a second draft, which is due to be published in June 2018 for a 12-week consultation period. The GMSF will set the strategic planning framework for development up to 2035. 1.28 Part of the evidence base for the Spatial Framework includes a new Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (October 2016). This sets out the Objectively Assessed Housing Need (OAHN) for the individual local authorities. Prior to the consideration of market signals, the OAHN for Tameside for the period 2015-2035 is calculated to be 13,578, which represents 679 per annum.

Map 1.2 Tameside Metropolitan Borough within its strategic context (Greater Manchester)

Data analysis and presentation 1.29 Data has been presented for the following wards within Tameside Metropolitan Borough, as illustrated by Map 1.3:  Ashton Hurst  Ashton St Michael's

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 Ashton Waterloo  Audenshaw  Denton North East  Denton South  Denton West  Droylsden East  Droylsden West  Dukinfield  Dukinfield Stalybridge  Hyde Godley  Hyde Newton  Hyde Werneth  Longdendale  Mossley  St Peter's  Stalybridge North  Stalybridge South

Map 1.3 Tameside Wards

December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 22 Research methodology 1.30 Regarding the overall methodological approach to assessing housing need, PPG (paragraph 5) states that, ‘there is no one methodology approach or use of a particular dataset(s) that will provide a definitive assessment of development need. But the use of this standard methodology set out in this guidance is strongly recommended because it will ensure that the assessment findings are transparently prepared. Local planning authorities may consider departing from the methodology, but they should explain why their particular local circumstances have led them to adopt a different approach where this is the case. The assessment should be thorough but proportionate, building where possible on existing information sources outlined within the guidance’. 1.31 PPG (paragraph 14) comments that, ‘establishing future need for housing is not an exact science. No single approach will provide a definitive answer. Plan makers should avoid expending significant resources on primary research (information that is collected through surveys, focus groups or interviews etc. and analysed to produce a new set of findings) as this will in many cases be a disproportionate way of establishing an evidence base. They should instead look to rely predominantly on secondary data (e.g. Census, national surveys) to inform their assessment which are identified within the guidance.’ 1.32 To deliver the HNA 2017, a multi-method approach has been adopted, comprising:  A review of primary data obtained through a survey of 3,401 households across the Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council area. The 2017 Household Survey involved a total of 33,200 households contacted and 3,401 questionnaires returned, representing a 10.5% response rate overall. Although the response rate (10.5%) was lower than expected, the data are sufficiently robust to provide reliable data relating to the current and future housing market. The number of questionnaires returned was well in excess of the 1,500 specified in former Government guidance;  A consideration of the findings of a stakeholder consultation and interviews with estate and lettings agents;  A review of relevant secondary data including the 2011 Census, house price data, private rental data, Housing Association CORE lettings data, CLG Statistics and Housing Register information; and  Analysis of housing need and affordable housing requirements. 1.33 Further details of the research methodology are set out in Technical Appendix A.

Report structure 1.34 The Tameside HNA 2017 report is structured as follows:  Chapter 2 considers the definition of the Housing Market Area for Tameside;  Chapter 3 provides a review of the current housing market;  Chapter 4 looks at housing market signals;

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 Chapter 5 assesses the need for all types of housing and includes an analysis of overall type/size mix, affordable housing need, overall tenure mix and the needs of different groups; and  Chapter 6 concludes the report with a summary of findings and a consideration of strategic and policy issues. 1.35 The report includes technical appendices, which provide detailed material that underpins the core outputs of the HNA. The technical appendix material includes:  Research methodology (Appendix A);  Housing policy review (Appendix B);  Affordable housing need calculations (Appendix C);  Monitoring and updating (Appendix D); and  Conformity to NPPF and PPG checklist (Appendix E).

December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 24 2. Understanding the Housing Market Introduction 2.1 PPG (paragraph 8) states that, ‘[housing] needs should be assessed in relation to the relevant functional area i.e. Housing Market Area… Establishing the assessment area may identify smaller sub-markets with specific features and it may be appropriate to investigate these specifically in order to create a detailed picture of local need. It is also important to recognise that there are 'market segments' i.e. not all housing types have the same appeal to different occupants.’ 2.2 PPG (paragraph 10) defines a Housing Market Area as, “a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case that housing market areas overlap”. 2.3 PPG (paragraph 11) suggests that Housing Market Areas can be broadly defined by using three different sources of information as follows:  House prices and rates of change in house prices;  Household migration and search patterns; and  Contextual data (for example travel to work area boundaries, retail and school catchment areas). 2.4 In relation to migration and search patterns (the second bullet point, above), PPG (paragraph 11) further comments that, “migration flows and housing search patterns reflect preferences and the trade-offs made when choosing housing with different characteristics. Analysis of migration flow patterns can help to identify these relationships and the extent to which people move house within an area. The findings can identify the areas within which a relatively high proportion of household moves (typically 70 per cent) are contained. This excludes long distance moves (e.g. those due to a change of lifestyle or retirement), reflecting the fact that most people move relatively short distances due to connections to families, friends, jobs, and schools”. 2.5 In line with PPG, this HNA reviews relevant data to establish the extent of the Tameside Housing Market Area. Firstly, this chapter considers existing analysis on Housing Market Areas, and then analyses house price, migration and commuting data.

Tameside strategic context 2.6 The GM SHMA 2008/2010 divided the City Region into four Housing Market Areas (HMAs) for the purposes of strategic-scale analysis:  Central (Manchester, Salford and Trafford);  Southern (Manchester, Stockport and Trafford);  North Eastern (Tameside, Oldham, Rochdale); and  North Western (Bolton, Bury, Salford and Wigan).

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2.7 Tameside Metropolitan Borough area therefore formed the southern part of the North East HMA, south of Oldham and Rochdale. 2.8 The new Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (October 2016), prepared as part of the Spatial Framework, includes a consideration of Housing Market Areas with the city region. It considers key factors, particularly migration and commuting. 2.9 In terms of migration, the SHMA finds that most migration in Greater Manchester is over a relatively short distance. It states that: ‘Overall, Greater Manchester as a whole has a very high level of self-containment, both in terms of the proportion of people moving from an address in Greater Manchester who remain within the sub-region, and the proportion of people moving to an address in Greater Manchester who already lived within the sub-region, exceeding 80% of both measures (as a proportion of all their moves within England and Wales).’8 2.10 Evidence of differences between parts of Greater Manchester are acknowledged in the SHMA. It is observed that the northern districts of Bolton, Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside all individually have high levels of self-containment, close to or exceeding 70% (paragraph 3.16). However, it is also noted that: ‘The four eastern districts of Oldham, Rochdale, Stockport and Tameside collectively saw net out-migration of more than 1,500 people per annum over the period 2002-2012, whereas the four western districts of Bolton, Salford, Trafford and Wigan had net in- migration of more than 2,200 people per annum. Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside have the highest proportion of their migrants coming from within Greater Manchester.’9 2.11 In terms of commuting, the Greater Manchester SHMA finds that almost 88% of commuters who live in Greater Manchester also work in the sub-region, and more than 85% of commuters who work in Greater Manchester also live in the sub-region (paragraph 3.20). At the individual authority level, it finds that: ‘Manchester, Salford and Trafford all draw in a large number of workers from outside their districts, often from each other, and have net in-commuting and low worker self- containment. Manchester has a dominant role, with very high levels of net in- commuting exceeding 100,000, whereas the levels for Salford and Trafford are much more modest. The other seven Greater Manchester districts have quite significant net out-commuting. Bolton, Oldham and Rochdale appear to have quite localised commuting, with relatively high self-containment both in terms of workers and commuters. Bury, Stockport and Tameside have lower commuter self- containment rates.’10 2.12 It is noted that Stockport Town Centre has a broader reach than most of the other major town centres in Greater Manchester, with significant flows from Manchester and Tameside (paragraph 3.22). The influence of Manchester (City) as an employment

8 Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (October 2016), paragraph 3.12 9 Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (October 2016), paragraph 3.17 10 Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (October 2016), paragraph 3.21

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centre is evidenced, providing employment for more than 20% of the commuters from the authorities of Salford, Stockport, Tameside and Trafford (paragraph 3.25). 2.13 In terms of defining housing market areas, the SHMA provides the following conclusion: ‘This complex functioning of housing and labour markets within Greater Manchester means that there is no simple way of subdividing the sub-region into identifiable housing market areas or functional economic areas. Any boundaries would essentially be arbitrary, and risk masking important relationships, as has been seen with the housing market areas that have previously been identified. Given these problems, together with the relatively small distances involved in most migration and commuting, the issues of district identity, and the availability of population and household projection data, it is considered that the most appropriate unit of analysis below the Greater Manchester level is the individual districts. This would be expected to enable a greater level of analysis, taking into account a better understanding of the relationships between different places, than would the combination of districts into larger sub-areas. However, even a district-based analysis could mask significant cross-boundary connections, and it will be important to have regard to the analysis in this report and supplementary data when interpreting assessments of demand and need for individual districts.’11

House prices and rates of change in house prices 2.14 PPG (paragraph 11) states that, ‘Housing market areas can be identified by assessing patterns in the relationship between housing demand and supply across different locations. This analysis uses house prices to provide a ‘market-based’ reflection of housing market area boundaries. It enables the identification of areas which have clearly different price levels compared to surrounding areas. The findings provide information about differences across the area in terms of the price people pay for similar housing, market ‘hotspots’, low demand areas and volatility.’ 2.15 Figure 2.1 shows how the median house price over the period 2000 to 2016 has changed in Tameside, the region (the North West) and England. 2.16 Since 2000, the median house price in Tameside has increased 133% from £48,000 to £112,000 in 2016. The median price in Tameside has tracked below the regional median, which in turn is below the national trend. As with England and the region, the fastest rate of median house price growth in Tameside was experienced between 2000 (£48,000) and 2007 (£124,950), followed by a period of falling prices between 2008 and 2011-12. House prices have risen since 2012, from £108,000 (2011-12) to £112,000 (2016).

11 Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (October 2016), paragraph 3.33

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Figure 2.1 Median house price trends 2000 to 2016: Tameside, the North West and England

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 Median House Price (£)

50,000

0 North West ENGLAND 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2.17 The lower quartile house price in Tameside has increased from £35,000 in 2000 to £83,500 in 2016, an increase of 138.6%. 2.18 The distribution of house prices (2016) across the Metropolitan Borough of Tameside is illustrated by Map 2.3 and Table 2.1. Map 2.3 shows median house prices by ward and indicates relatively lower prices in St Peters, Longdendale and Ashton St Michaels and higher prices in Stalybridge South, Ashton Hurst, Denton West, Audenshaw and Hyde Werneth. Table 2.1 sets out lower quartile, median and upper quartile house prices by ward and reflects this spatial pattern.

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Map 2.3 Median house prices 2016 by ward

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Table 2.1 House prices in Tameside 2016 by ward Price (£) Ward Lower Quartile (25%) Median (£) Upper Quartile (£) Ashton Hurst 100,000 128,000 190,000 Ashton St Michael's 68,500 90,000 129,995 Ashton Waterloo 78,000 105,000 126,000 Audenshaw 90,000 130,250 150,000 Denton North East 84,000 106,500 127,500 Denton South 90,000 108,000 135,000 Denton West 116,750 136,750 165,750 Droylsden East 94,000 119,000 165,000 Droylsden West 88,000 104,250 125,000 Dukinfield 84,500 104,250 140,000 Dukinfield Stalybridge 100,000 120,000 155,000 Hyde Godley 85,000 115,000 173,950 Hyde Newton 83,000 101,500 165,000 Hyde Werneth 103,000 131,000 178,000 Longdendale 73,000 89,750 145,000 Mossley 97,750 117,000 166,000 St Peter's 64,000 75,458 92,000 Stalybridge North 85,000 102,700 170,000 Stalybridge South 100,000 166,000 246,250 Tameside Total 83,500 112,000 153,500 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2017

2.19 Table 2.2 considers how Tameside median prices and change over the period 2000- 2016 compares with neighbouring areas, the region and England. This analysis demonstrates that the median house price increase in Tameside has been lower than most neighbouring local authority areas, except for Wigan, but very similar to the median price growth experienced across the region and England as a whole.

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Table 2.2 Comparative median house prices and price change in neighbouring areas, the North West and England Year Location 2000 2016 % change 2000-2016 Tameside £48,000 £112,000 133.0 Bolton £46,725 £120,000 156.8 Bury £53,000 £144,138 172.0 Manchester £50,000 £143,250 186.5 Oldham £43,000 £117,000 172.1 Rochdale £47,700 £120,000 151.6 Salford £47,000 £132,500 181.9 Stockport £73,000 £190,500 161.0 Trafford £82,500 £236,000 186.1 Wigan £49,000 £120,000 144.9 North West £56,500 £142,000 151.3 England £82,000 £202,000 146.3 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2017

Migration and self-containment 2.20 In relation to migration, PPG (paragraph 11) states: ‘Migration flows and housing search patterns reflect preferences and the trade-offs made when choosing housing with different characteristics. Analysis of migration flow patterns can help to identify these relationships and the extent to which people move house within an area. The findings can identify the areas within which a relatively high proportion of household moves (typically 70 per cent) are contained. This excludes long distance moves (e.g. those due to a change of lifestyle or retirement), reflecting the fact that most people move relatively short distances due to connections to families, friends, jobs, and schools.’ 2.21 That said, previous CLG guidance recognised that ‘rural areas typically have less locally self-contained migration patterns, reflecting the influence of long-distance movers who are opting for lifestyle change or retirement.’12 2.22 Data reported in the 2011 Census provides evidence from which the degree of self- containment of Tameside can be derived. PAS guidance recommends that migration data are tested against the PPG criterion for self-containment, that at least 70% of all migration excluding long-distance migration should be contained within the HMA. A suitable test are two migration containment ratios:  Supply side (origin): moves within the area divided by all moves whose origin is in the area, excluding long-distance moves; and  Demand side (destination): moves within the area divided by all moves whose destination is in the area, excluding long-distance migration.

12 DC Advice Note: Identifying sub-regional housing market areas 2007

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2.23 Table 2.3 presents the relevant migration data for Tameside. This illustrates that 70.8% of all residents moving in the year preceding the Census originated from within Tameside. Of the total 18,361 moving residents, 70.8% originated in Tameside, 6.6% from Manchester (City), 4.8% from Stockport, 3.3% from Oldham, 1.5% from High Peak, 3.0% from elsewhere in Greater Manchester, 3.4% from the North West and 6.6% from elsewhere in the UK. Excluding long-distance moves and only analysing the 17,149 movements from within the North West region, 75.8% originated within Tameside. 2.24 Table 2.4 summarises the containment ratios that apply to the origin and destination of moving residents. In line with PPG guidance, this excludes long-distance migration (which in this case is taken as moves from outside of the North West, as also referenced in Table 2.3). Based on these criteria, the origin containment ratio is 75.79% and the destination is 74.67%. This indicates a high level of self-containment in terms of population migration.

Table 2.3 Flows of residents (all moves) Supply Side (Origin) Demand Side (Destination) Excluding Excluding Long Long Distance Distance Origin/ All Moves Moves All Moves Moves Destination Number % % Number % % Tameside 12,998 70.8 75.8 12,998 67.0 74.7 Manchester 1,219 6.6 7.1 1,067 5.5 6.1 Stockport 885 4.8 5.2 798 4.1 4.6 Oldham 605 3.3 3.5 639 3.3 3.7 High Peak 276 1.5 1.6 334 1.7 1.9 Salford 194 1.1 3.1 317 1.6 1.8 Rochdale 132 0.7 0.8 132 0.7 0.8 Bury 109 0.6 0.6 105 0.5 0.6 Trafford 108 0.6 0.6 159 0.8 0.9 Elsewhere in the NW 623 3.4 3.6 859 4.4 4.9 East Midlands 102 0.6 149 0.8 Elsewhere UK 1110 6.0 1849 9.5 Total 18,361 100.0 100.0 19,406 100.0 100.0 Base (excluding long-distance moves) 17,149 17,408 Source: 2011 Census

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Table 2.4 Containment ratios

Moves within the area All moves originating in the area Containment Ratio Origin 12,998 17,149 75.79% All moves whose destination is in Containment Moves within the area Destination the area Ratio 12,998 17,408 74.67%

Source: 2011 Census

Commuting patterns 2.25 The 2011 Census provides an analysis of travel to work patterns and the extent to which residents in Tameside travel to other areas, together with details of how many people commute into the Metropolitan Borough area. Table 2.5 presents this data and indicates that 54.9% of people who live in Tameside work in the Metropolitan Borough with a significant 19.5% commuting out of Tameside into Manchester and a further 9.5% to Stockport and 5.4% to Oldham. By comparison, 67.7% of workers in Tameside also live in the Metropolitan Borough. This indicates a net outward movement of workers and illustrates the strength of Manchester as an economic centre within the strategic area.

Table 2.5 Tameside 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74) Where do people who live in Tameside work? Live Work Number % Tameside 49,045 54.9 Manchester 17,483 19.5 Stockport 8,518 9.5 Oldham 4,872 5.4 Tameside Trafford 2,996 3.3 Salford 2,576 3.0 High Peak 1,287 1.4 Other 2,723 3.0 Workers 89,500 100.0 Where to people who work in Tameside live? Live Work Number % Tameside 41,324 67.7 Oldham 4,606 7.6 Stockport 4,392 7.2 Manchester 3,729 6.1 Tameside High Peak 2,735 4.5 Rochdale 1,041 1.7 Trafford 985 1.6 Other 2,177 3.6 Jobs 60,989 100.0 Source 2011 Census

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2.26 In terms of defining market areas, PPG does not suggest an appropriate self- containment figure. However, the ONS provides a definition of Travel to Work areas as follows: ‘The current criterion for defining TTWs is that generally at least 75% of an area’s resident workforce in the area and at least 75% of the people who work in the area also live in the area…however, for areas with a working population in excess of 25,000, self- containment rates as low as 66.7% are accepted’13 2.27 On this basis, it is concluded that Tameside is not self-contained in terms of the travel- to-work patterns of its own resident working population, with just under 55% of the employed population actually working within the Metropolitan Borough while almost 20% of the working population commute into Manchester. Tameside is more self- contained in terms of the residential location of its workforce, with almost 68% of the Borough’s workers also residing within the metropolitan area.

Concluding comments 2.28 The purpose of this chapter has been to consider the general housing market context of Tameside and its inter-relationships with other areas. This reflects the requirements of PPG (paragraph 11). By reviewing house prices, migration and travel to work patterns, the extent to which Tameside is a self-contained Housing Market Area can be determined. PPG establishes that areas within which a relatively high proportion of household moves (typically 70%) are contained can be defined as a self-contained Housing Market Area. 2.29 Tameside’s Housing Market Area exhibits a degree of distinctiveness compared with neighbouring areas as measured by median price change 2000-2016 at a lower rate than most neighbouring local authority areas within Greater Manchester, but very similar to those for both the region and England as a whole. 2.30 Regarding migration, analysis of the 2011 Census data identifies containment ratios of 75.79% (origin) and 74.67% (destination). From a migration perspective, Tameside is therefore considered to be self-contained. 2.31 Regarding travel to work, only 54.9% of employees living in Tameside also work Tameside, indicating high levels of out-commuting to work elsewhere, particularly into Manchester City, Stockport, Oldham and elsewhere in Greater Manchester. By comparison, there is a lower amount of in-commuting, with 67.7% of Tameside’s workforce living in the Metropolitan Borough administrative area, while 7.6% travel in from Oldham, 7.2% from Stockport and 6.1% from Manchester. From a travel-to-work perspective it is therefore concluded that Tameside is not self-contained in terms of its own working population but is part of the wider economic functional area of the Greater Manchester city region.

13https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/commutingtoworkchangesto traveltoworkareas/2001to2011

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2.32 Interactions with several neighbouring areas are recognised particularly in terms of commuting flows, as also highlighted in the GM SHMA (October 2016). There was a high level of commuting from Tameside into Manchester which results in a lower commuter self-containment rate for Tameside. 2.33 In conclusion, from a migration perspective, Tameside can be considered to be a self- contained Housing Market Area. However, commuting patterns show that is not self- contained but is part of the wider economic functional area of the Greater Manchester city region.

December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 35 3. Tameside housing market review Introduction 3.1 The purpose of this chapter is to explore the housing market dynamics of Tameside. This includes a review of the current stock profile along with an analysis of the tenure characteristics. It also considers the key housing market drivers, a consideration of housing need and the affordability of different tenure options.

Property profile 3.2 This study assumes a total of 104,840 households14 and 101,330 dwellings in Tameside Metropolitan Borough. There are 1,851 vacant homes (of which 1,043 are long term vacant) and 156 are second homes15. The overall vacancy rate is around 1.8%, this is lower than the national rate of 2.6% across England16. Housing stock data by ward is set out in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Dwelling stock by ward

Ward Total Dwellings Ashton Hurst 5,150 Ashton St Michael's 5,410 Ashton Waterloo 4,840 Audenshaw 5,350 Denton North East 4,830 Denton South 5,040 Denton West 5,830 Droylsden East 5,320 Droylsden West 5,220 Dukinfield 5,580 Dukinfield Stalybridge 5,630 Hyde Godley 5,390 Hyde Newton 6,260 Hyde Werneth 5,130 Longdendale 4,380 Mossley 5,330 St Peter's 6,280 Stalybridge North 5,160 Stalybridge South 5,200 Tameside Total 101,330 Source: 2017 Household Survey and 2015/2016 Council Tax data

14 Household survey 2017 15 Council Tax 2015/2016 16 2015 CLG Dwelling and Vacancy data

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Property size and type 3.3 Table 3.2 reviews the profile of occupied dwelling stock by size and type across Tameside. Overall, the vast majority (81.5%) of properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/apartments and maisonettes, 5.9% are bungalows, and 0.7% are other types of property. Of all occupied properties, 7.2% have one bedroom/bedsit, 32.0% have two bedrooms, 46.4% have three bedrooms and 14.3% have four or more bedrooms.

Table 3.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings across Tameside No. Bedrooms (Table %) Base One/ Five or (Valid Property Type Bedsit Two Three Four more Total response) Detached house 0.4 1.9 9.7 57.3 59.8 13.4 14,024 Semi-detached 0.4 17.4 56.1 29.9 27.4 35.9 37,443 house/Town house Terraced house 1.2 53.0 29.4 10.4 10.2 32.2 33,504 Bungalow 17.9 9.3 3.1 1.5 2.7 6.0 6,264 Maisonette 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 650 Flat / Apartment 76.4 16.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 11.2 11,667 Caravan/ Park Home 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20 Other 1.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 725 Total 7.3 32.0 46.3 12.5 1.9 100.0 104,298 Base (Valid 7,516 33,196 48,095 12,925 1,934 103,666 response) Source: 2017 Household Survey and excludes missing data

3.4 How property type varies by ward is illustrated in Figure 3.1 and variations in number of bedrooms by ward in Figure 3.2. Notable sub-area variations in type of property include the relatively higher proportion of detached properties in Stalybridge South (34.6%); higher proportions of semi-detached houses in Droylsden West (60.6%) and Denton West (57.0%); higher proportions of terraced housing in St Peters (53.4%); and higher proportions of flats/apartments in Dukinfield Stalybridge (20.0%). In terms of dwelling size, there is a high proportion of small properties with one bedroom/bedsit in Droylsden East (12.2%) and a relatively high proportion of larger properties with four or more bedrooms in Stalybridge South (29.5%).

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Figure 3.1 Property type by ward

100%

90% Detached house 80% Semi-detached house 70% Terraced house/town 60% house

Bungalow 50%

Maisonette 40%

Flat/apartment 30%

20% Caravan/Park Home

10% Other

Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Figure 3.2 Property size by ward

100%

90%

80%

70% One/bedsit

60% Two

50% Three

40% Four

30% Five or more

20%

10%

Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Property age and condition 3.5 The age profile of dwelling stock in Tameside is summarised in Table 3.3. The majority of the Metropolitan Borough’s dwellings (60.2%) were built in the period before 1965.

Table 3.3 Age of dwelling Age of Dwellings Number % pre-1919 22,890 23.0 1919-44 20,000 20.1 1945-64 17,030 17.1 1965-82 22,310 22.4 1983-99 9,620 9.6 post 1999 7,870 7.9 Total 99,720 100.0 Unknown 1,590 Grand Total 101,310 Source: Valuation Office Agency 2016

3.6 The English Housing Survey (EHS) produces national data on dwelling condition. Applying national trends to the stock profile of Tameside would suggest that around 22.6% of dwelling stock is non-decent, which is slightly higher than the national average of 20.6%. The number of dwellings likely to fail the minimum standard of decent homes criteria is estimated to be 13.1% (compared with 11.9% nationally). 3.7 A full definition of what constitutes a decent home is available from CLG17 but in summary a decent home meets the following four criteria: a. It meets the current statutory minimum for housing; b. It is in a reasonable state of repair; c. It has reasonably modern facilities and services; and d. It provides a reasonable degree of thermal comfort.

17 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/7812/138355.pdf

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Table 3.4 Dwelling stock condition in England and Tameside estimates England Fails decent homes criteria Modern Minimum facilities and Thermal All dwellings Dwelling age (EHS) Dwelling age (VOA) Non-decent standard Repair services comfort in group (000s) % dwellings pre-1919 pre-1919 40.1 28.7 11.2 3.9 11.9 4,648 20.0 1919-44 1919-44 24.1 13.1 7.6 1.7 7.6 3,930 16.9 1945-64 1945-64 16.6 8.0 3.6 2.0 5.7 4,505 19.4 1965-80 1965-82 17.5 8.8 1.8 1.9 7.6 4,757 20.5 1981-90 1983-99 17.6 4.7 * 0.9 13.5 1,953 8.4 post 1990 post 1999 1.5 1.5 * * * 3,460 14.9 Total 20.6 11.9 4.6 1.9 7.5 23,254 100.0 Tameside Metropolitan Borough Fails decent homes criteria (estimate) Modern Minimum facilities Thermal Dwelling age (EHS) Dwelling age (VOA) Non-decent standard Repair and services comfort All dwellings % dwellings pre-1919 pre-1919 9,184 6,567 2,564 882 2,731 22,890 23.0 1919-44 1919-44 4,811 2,621 1,510 343 1,519 20,000 20.1 1945-64 1945-64 2,834 1,356 620 332 973 17,030 17.1 1965-80 1965-82 3,898 1,956 408 424 1,690 22,310 22.4 1981-90 1983-99 1,693 455 * 91 1,296 9,620 9.6 post 1990 post 1999 115 115 * * * 7,870 7.9 Total 22,534 13,070 5,103 2,072 8,209 99,720 100.0 % of all stock 22.6 13.1 5.1 2.1 8.2 National % (as above) 20.6 11.9 4.6 1.9 7.5 Source: English Housing Survey (EHS) 2013 data applied to Valuation Office Agency (VOA) 2016 dwelling stock age profile Note ‘*’ indicates sample size too small for reliable estimate

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Property tenure 3.8 The tenure profile of the Tameside Metropolitan Borough administrative area is summarised in Figure 3.3. This is based on the findings of the Household Survey 2017, undertaken to inform this HNA. Variations in broad tenure groups by sub-area are summarised in Figure 3.4. Overall, based on survey evidence, 63.4% of occupied dwellings are owner-occupied, 14.2% are private rented (including tied accommodation and student housing) and 22.4% are affordable. Affordable housing includes dwellings rented from a social housing provider (Council or housing association) and intermediate tenures (shared ownership, shared equity, discounted sale, low cost home ownership and Starter Homes).

Figure 3.3 Tameside tenure profile of occupied dwellings

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Owned (no mortgage) 31542

Owned (with mortgage) 34884

Rented Privately (furnished) 1041

Rented Privately (unfurnished) 13389

Rented from a Housing Association 22964

Shared Ownership, Shared Equity, Discounted for 259 sale, Low Cost Home Ownership

Tied accommodation (this is usually provided by 487 an employer and can be rent free)

Rent to buy 275

Source: 2017 Household Survey

3.9 The tenure profile varies across Tameside and this is shown by ward in Figure 3.4. The proportion of owner occupied dwellings is highest in Denton West (83.0%) and Hyde Werneth (76.5%); private renting is significantly higher in Ashton St Michaels (22.1%) and St Peters (20.3%) and affordable accommodation in St Peters (43.0%) and Denton South (36.1%).

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Figure 3.4 Tameside tenure profile by ward

100% 6.3% 9.1% 12.7% 10.3% 15.9% 14.2% 15.3% 90% 17.8% 17.9% 10.7% 21.0% 22.4% 25.6% 24.5% 27.6% 26.7% 29.7% 14.4% 30.0% 30.3% 36.1% 17.1% 80% 17.0% 12.0% 17.3% 43.0% 12.7% 16.0% 11.4% 22.1% 70% 9.9% 11.5% 14.2% 12.8% Owner occupied 14.3% 14.5% 11.2% 12.9% 60% 9.8% private rented 50% 20.3%

40% 83.0% affordable 76.5% 72.2% 72.6% 71.9% 70.3% 67.6% 68.5% 64.5% 63.9% 66.1% 63.4% 30% 60.1% 58.1% 60.5% 58.8% 54.1% 55.8% 56.8%

20% 36.7%

10%

Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Tenure characteristics Owner-occupied sector 3.10 63.4% (66,426) of households across Tameside are owner occupiers. 30.1% of all households (31,542) own outright and 33.3% of all households (34,884) have a mortgage. 3.11 The Household Survey provides the following information on owner occupied stock:  Most owner-occupied properties are houses, with 41.8% semi-detached, 29.9% terraced and 19.8% detached; a further 6.1% are bungalows, 1.8% are flats/apartments and 0.6% other property types;  54.7% of properties have three bedrooms, 24.7% have two bedrooms 20.0% have four or more bedrooms, and 0.7% have one bedroom/bedsit; and  Around 19.1% of owner-occupied stock was built pre-1919, 39.5% was built between 1919 and 1964; 21.0% was built between 1965 and 1984 and 20.3% has been built since 1985. 3.12 Over the period 2000 to 2016, lower quartile and median house prices across Tameside have increased significantly, as summarised in Table 3.5. 3.13 It is interesting to note that in 2000, a household income of £9,000 was required for a lower quartile price to be affordable; by 2016 this had increased to £21,471. In comparison, an income of £12,343 was required for a median priced property to be affordable in 2000 compared with £28,800 in 2016.

Table 3.5 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to be affordable House Price (£) Income to be affordable* Tameside 2000 2016 2000 2016 Lower Quartile £35,000 £83,500 £9,000 £21,471 Median £48,000 £112,000 £12,343 £28,800 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2017 *Assuming a 10% deposit and 3.5x income multiple is required for a mortgage

3.14 A range of socio-economic and demographic information on residents has been obtained from the Household Survey. Some interesting observations relating to owner- occupiers include:  In terms of household type, 34.5% of owner occupiers are couples with children, 22.3% are older (65 or over) singles and couples, 25.4% are couples (under 65 with no children), 13.9% are singles, 7.5% are lone parents and 5.0% are other household types;  The majority of Household Reference People (Heads of Household) living in owner occupied dwellings are in employment (67.7%) and a further 26.9% are wholly

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retired from work. The proportion retired is considerably higher for outright owners (53.9%);  Incomes amongst owner occupiers tend to be high, with 49.8% receiving at least £500 each week. Incomes amongst outright owners tend to be lower than for mortgaged owners, with 34.2% receiving less than £300 each week compared with 9.8% of mortgaged owners. This reflects the different age profile and economic status of outright owners;  In terms of length of residency, 39.8% of owner occupiers have lived in the same property for 20 years or more (and the figure is 63.6% for outright owners).

Views of estate agents 3.15 Views were sought about sales market activity from a range of estate agents working across Tameside to inform the HNA 2017. Interviews were carried out with:  Hunters (Stalybridge),  Your Move (Denton),  Home (Hyde, Ashton),  Reed Rains (Ashton, Denton),  WC Dawson (Stalybridge, Ashton, Hyde, Denton),  Edward Mellor (Stalybridge, Droysden, Denton),  Homeland (Audenshaw), and  Foxley Lettings (Droylsden). 3.16 Estate agents reported that the home purchase market is buoyant and looks likely to continue to be so. The feedback is that housing markets in 2017 have largely recovered from the last recession with sales increasing gradually over the past three years. 3.17 House prices are rising but are still lower than the average for nearby Greater Manchester but demand is buoyant. The greatest demand is for detached and semi- detached houses with 3 or 4-bedrooms and gardens, and across the area demand generally exceeds supply. 3.18 Overall, there is pressure on all types of larger family housing (3-bedrooms +), and in most areas there is an excess of demand for 4-bed properties (exceeding supply). 3.19 Newly forming households can find housing opportunities in the rental market which is booming, or through access to purchase smaller terraced houses and flats at relatively affordable prices. 3.20 Agents also report that preferences, particularly of younger single people and couples, are not necessarily for smaller properties and are as likely to be seeking a 3-bedroom property. Some first-time buyers are willing to pay up to £250,000 (and in a few cases even more) for their first home. 3.21 Across the borough there is also substantial and continuing demand from older people for properties to ‘downsize’ with preferences being for bungalows rather than flats.

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Sales market trends Stalybridge 3.22 The sales market in Stalybridge is buoyant, with vibrant demand for properties to buy from across demand groups. The location of the town is good in an attractive setting with excellent transport links by rail and motorway to Manchester and Leeds. Prices are rising slowly and the feeling is that this looks set to continue and there appear to be no parts of Stalybridge that are particularly unpopular. 3.23 Prices for smaller properties have been rising slowly over recent years and now a 1 or 2- bed property will cost from £70,000 to over £200,000. 3-bedroom properties sell for prices ranging from £80,000 for terraced homes to over £300,000 for detached or semi- detached homes. Prices in Mottram are slightly higher. Agents report properties that come up for sale sell quickly and there is substantial demand for the properties that do become available. The availability of properties for sale and the quick selling times, suggests that demand is matching or even exceeding supply.

Denton, Droylsden and Audenshaw 3.24 Prices are buoyant and rising, although the prices of terraced houses have been dropping slightly from their ‘high water mark’ a few years ago. Currently, 1 and 2-bed flats or terraced houses are available for prices ranging from £70,000 for a small terrace to over £200,000 for a flat in a new development. 3-bedroom properties sell for prices ranging from £85,000 to over £325,000. Properties coming onto the market sell quickly (one agent reported that of 20 properties recently coming onto the books, 7 have offers.) Properties becoming available for purchase are attracting their asking price and often more.

Hyde, Mottram and Longdendale 3.25 Property prices in Hyde are remaining ‘steady’ and rising slowly. Most properties becoming available for sale have 2 or 3-bedrooms and are for sale at prices ranging between £65,000 to over £300,000. Properties with 4-bedrooms or more are most in demand and sell at an average price of £300,000 but some properties fetch prices of over £700,000. Prices in Mottram and Longdendale are higher than in Hyde and demand is strong especially amongst more aspirational purchasers. Agents report that all properties in the Hyde area are popular and sell quickly.

Ashton-under-Lyne, Mossley and Dukinfield 3.26 Agents feel that currently, the housing market is fairly static. Property is plentiful and fairly inexpensive, with the majority of housing being either terraced houses or post war semis. Typically, a 2-bedroom apartment or 2-bedroom terraced house will start from £65,000, a 3-bedroom semi starts at around £140,000 and a 4-bedroom detached starting in the region of £200,000. There has been renewed confidence in the market

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over recent times which has resulted in more sales but not a significant rise in property prices. Properties sell quickly and there is strong demand. 3.27 Many major retail outlets have come to the area including the Manchester IKEA store. The area is well connected by transport links to Manchester through the M60 motorway and the high-speed trams into the centre of Manchester. These factors are likely to drive sustained demand for housing in the area.

What is popular in the owner occupied market 3.28 In Stalybridge, Ashton and Denton prices have been rising over recent years, and in Hyde and other areas have been remaining ‘steady’. A 2-bedroom terrace close to the centre of Ashton-under-Lyne can be bought for less than £80,000. A modern apartment in a new development in Droylsden, a popular mill town between Ashton and Manchester, can cost upwards of £160,000. A small semi in Stalybridge, or a large detached house in Denton, may cost between £200,000 and £300,000, while in Hyde and Mottram, a sizeable detached home may cost upwards of £400,000. 3.29 There is good demand for all property types across the borough, however, some agents, as in other popular areas, perceive there may be a difference between what buyers want and what is available, maybe leading to a situation where properties sell quickly because they are available rather than popular.

Stalybridge 3.30 There is good demand for all property types but especially for properties with 3 or 4- bedrooms and gardens, which command prices of between £180,000 and £270,000. Smaller terraced homes are still popular with first time buyers, and are ‘affordable. Bungalows are extremely popular with older people, although supply is constrained.

Denton, Droylsden and Audenshaw 3.31 In these areas, the large supply of 2 and 3-bedroom terraced homes are popular with first time buyers. However, larger family housing is in high demand and prospective buyers may need to spend longer finding the one they want. Bungalows are also extremely popular with older people, although, again, supply is constrained.

Hyde, Mottram and Longdendale 3.32 Agents report that all properties coming onto the market are in demand and properties of all sizes sold quickly. Agents also reported that there is a specific local demand in the area for larger and higher priced properties.

Ashton-under-Lyne, Mossley and Dukinfield 3.33 The area is popular with all types of buyers who want to be close to the City of Manchester whilst enjoying close proximity to the Pennines. There is good demand for

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all types of property in the area and especially with first time buyers given the affordable prices of terraced and semi-detached homes. Agents report that buyers generally get a lot of property for their money when compared to other areas in Greater Manchester.

Supply issues in the owner occupied market 3.34 All agents interviewed were optimistic about the prospects for the local housing market. Prices are as a number stated ‘steady’ and supply in most cases is meeting demand, with some issues relating to larger properties.

Stalybridge 3.35 There is a good stock of homes on the books of estate agents, although the volume is slightly lower than in recent times suggesting that demand is matching or may be exceeding supply. 3.36 The supply of terraced properties is able to meet demand from starter households and small families, and there is still a supply of such housing at prices up to and around £100,000. However, agents also report that some first-time buyers are seeking and able to buy properties priced at up to £250,000 or in some cases even more. 3.37 Buyers seeking larger family homes may have to spend some time finding the home they like. The slight reduction in properties coming onto the market, may reflect vendors ‘staying put’ until they find the ‘right property’ for them. 3.38 There is a strong demand from older people for properties to downsize into, but the preference is largely for bungalows, of which there is a relatively small number becoming available and they sell at between £250,000 and £300,000.

Denton, Droylsden and Audenshaw 3.39 Generally, there is sufficient housing becoming available to meet demand although there is, as in many other areas, a perceived shortage of bungalows. Most properties becoming available are 2 and 3-bedroom properties (around 90%). There is a substantial stock of properties suitable and affordable for first-time buyers as prices of smaller terraced properties have fallen. 3.40 Purchasers seeking homes with 4-bedrooms or more may also have to spend longer looking for the ‘right property’, as in other areas there is less larger property coming onto the market (around 10% of available properties). Prices for larger properties are also on the high side reflecting competition for scarce supply.

Hyde, Mottram and Longdendale 3.41 There is a higher proportion of properties with 4-bedrooms or more in comparison to other towns in Tameside, but supply is still constrained in relation to demand. As a result, purchasers seeking homes with 4-bedrooms or more may have to spend longer

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looking for the ‘right property’. There is also demand from older people for bungalows but they are short supply and sell at an average of £284,500.

Ashton-under-Lyne, Mossley and Dukinfield 3.42 Most properties becoming available have 2 or 3-bedrooms. There are significantly fewer properties with 4-bedrooms or more coming onto the market. This is leading to competition for scarce properties which is having an upward impact on prices and, as in other areas, purchasers seeking homes with 4-bedrooms or more may also have to spend longer looking for the ‘right property’. There is also demand from older people for bungalows but they are in short supply and sell at an average of £240,000.

Who is buying 3.43 There appears to be active interest and activity from the range of types of purchaser. First time buyers are perceived to be returning to the market especially as investor purchases of smaller terraced homes have reduced slightly and partly due to the availability of 5% mortgage products and Help to Buy. 3.44 More recently, there has been a slowing down of investor activity which agents believe has removed some competition for first time buyers, and maybe explain the reporting by agents that first time buyers are more able to purchase properties at up to £250k. 3.45 At the same time, it appears that fewer people are trading up, as agents report that it is taking longer for purchasers seeking larger properties to ‘find one that they want’.

Stalybridge 3.46 In the Stalybridge area, there is increased demand from all types of purchaser. There are signs that first time buyers are returning to the market and seeking properties, and not only at the bottom end of the market. There are indications of demand from ‘second stagers’ - first time buyers seeking their next home (2 to 3-bed properties) and from established family households seeking to ‘trade up’ to larger properties (3 or 4- bedrooms or more). Older people are also seeking to downsize especially to bungalows. Investors are still buying properties to let but at slightly lower levels than in previous years. Existing investors are seeking additional opportunities, while there have been indications of a proliferation of new ‘amateur investors’ owning one or two properties.

Denton, Droylsden and Audenshaw 3.47 There are also signs of first time buyers returning to the market in these areas attracted by the affordable property prices and the substantial supply of smaller terraced homes and flats. There is also demand from older people seeking smaller homes (mainly bungalows) to downsize to. There are signs of continuing interest from investors buying family homes for let as self-contained homes, and for conversion to HMOs.

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Hyde, Mottram and Longdendale 3.48 There is continuing demand from households seeking to trade up to larger (and often more expensive) properties and some demand from first time buyers for smaller properties becoming available. As with other areas, there is demand from older people for smaller properties to downsize to.

Ashton-under-Lyne, Mossley and Dukinfield 3.49 With a large NHS hospital and several major colleges within the town, the population is very diverse and is made up of students, young professionals and families from a variety of ethnic backgrounds.

Help to Buy 3.50 Table 3.6 sets out the total number of Help to Buy equity loans taken up since the scheme started in April 2013. It compares take-up in Tameside with the other nine Greater Manchester authorities. It reveals that 626 Help to Buy equity loans were taken up in Tameside over the period, which is slightly higher than the mean average of around 593 across the ten authorities. 3.51 Table 3.6 also shows the Help to Buy: NewBuy completion statistics. During the period of the scheme’s operation (it closed to new mortgage offers on 8 March 2015), 5,694 house purchases were made under the scheme across England. The 35 NewBuy completions in Tameside was the highest number of any of the Greater Manchester authorities.

Table 3.6 Take-up of Help to Buy products in Greater Manchester authorities

Help to Buy Equity Loans Help to Buy: NewBuy scheme (1 April 2013- 30 June 2017) (12 March 2012 – 8 March 2015) Local Authority Number of loans Number of completions Bolton 381 20 Bury 401 34 Manchester 1,272 28 Oldham 406 2 Rochdale 817 27 Salford 787 22 Stockport 269 13 Tameside 626 35 Trafford 147 8 Wigan 819 30 Source: DCLG, Help to Buy equity loan and Help to Buy: NewBuy statistics, 28 September 2017 (Tables 1 and 3)

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Private rented sector 3.52 The Coalition Government’s Housing Strategy of November 201118 recognised an increasingly important role for the private rented sector. This remains a key stand of national housing policy. The role of the PRS is acknowledged in terms of boosting housing supply and meeting people’s housing needs and also in supporting economic growth by enabling people to move to take up jobs elsewhere and to respond to changing circumstances. 3.53 The private rented sector is growing; the Census figures for 2011 confirmed that the sector accounted for 18.1% of housing stock in England, an increase of 31.2% from 13.8% in 2001. More recent 2014-15 English Housing Survey data reports that 19% of households rent privately. Increasing house prices pre-2007 and the struggling sales market when the down turn came are both factors that have underpinned the growth of the rental market for both ‘active choice’ renters and ‘frustrated would-be’ homeowners. Tenure reform and less accessible social rented housing are contributing factors in the ongoing growth of the private rented sector. 3.54 The private rented sector now clearly plays a vital role in meeting housing needs as well as providing an alternative to homeownership. Local authorities have an important role in ensuring that the private rented sector meets both these requirements. Balancing good quality supply with demand will help to stabilise rents and encouraging good quality management will improve the reputation of the sector and encourage longer term lets and lower turnover. However, this is a challenging task where existing partners need to be encouraged to participate and new partners and investors need to be identified. 3.55 According to the Household Survey 2017, the private rented sector accommodates around 14.2% (14,916) of households across Tameside. Of these households, 13,389 rent unfurnished properties, 1,041 rent furnished accommodation and 487 rent with their job (tied accommodation). Table 3.7 summarises the number of private rented dwellings by ward and indicates that 11.3% of all private rented dwellings are in St Peters and 7.8% in Ashton St Michael’s. 3.56 Most private rented properties (75.1%) are houses (of which 47.7% are terraced, 23.5% are semi-detached and 3.9% are detached); a further 21.2% are flats/maisonettes, 3.1% are bungalows and 0.6% are other property types. 7.4% of privately rented properties have one bedroom/bedsit, 50.4% have two bedrooms, 35.1% have three bedrooms and 7.0% have four or more bedrooms.

18 Laying the Foundations; A Housing Strategy for England, 2011

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Table 3.7 Profile of private rented sector in Tameside Tenure Rented Privately Rented Privately (furnished) (unfurnished) Tied accommodation Rent to buy Total Ward Count % of PRS Count % of PRS Count % of PRS Count % of PRS Count % Ashton Hurst 72 0.5 431 2.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 503 3.3 Ashton St Michael's 93 0.6 1,096 7.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 1,190 7.8 Ashton Waterloo 10 0.1 573 3.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 582 3.8 Audenshaw 9 0.1 648 4.3 0 0.0 0 0.0 657 4.3 Denton North East 114 0.8 784 5.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 897 5.9 Denton South 15 0.1 497 3.3 15 0.1 0 0.0 527 3.5 Denton West 158 1.0 397 2.6 0 0.0 0 0.0 555 3.7 Droylsden East 204 1.3 603 4.0 96 0.6 0 0.0 904 6.0 Droylsden West 0 0.0 885 5.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 885 5.8 Dukinfield 136 0.9 692 4.6 0 0.0 0 0.0 827 5.4 Dukinfield Stalybridge 43 0.3 557 3.7 0 0.0 0 0.0 600 3.9 Hyde Godley 0 0.0 892 5.9 0 0.0 0 0.0 892 5.9 Hyde Newton 0 0.0 813 5.4 0 0.0 10 0.1 823 5.4 Hyde Werneth 13 0.1 711 4.7 0 0.0 0 0.0 724 4.8 Longdendale 20 0.1 573 3.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 593 3.9 Mossley 113 0.7 717 4.7 101 0.7 0 0.0 931 6.1 St Peter's 29 0.2 1,150 7.6 275 1.8 265 1.7 1,721 11.3 Stalybridge North 0 0.0 755 5.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 755 5.0 Stalybridge South 10 0.1 615 4.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 625 4.1 Tameside Total 1,041 6.9 13,389 88.1 487 3.2 275 1.8 15,191 100.0 Source: 2017 Household Survey

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3.57 In terms of private rented sector prices, Table 3.8 presents Zoopla data for Tameside Metropolitan Borough for 2010-2016. This indicates that median rents have increased during the seven-year period, from £494 per month in 2010 to £524 per month in 2016. Lower quartile rents have also increased, from £446 pcm in 2010 to £477 pcm in 2016.

Table 3.8 Private sector rental prices in Tameside 2010-2016 Price per calendar month (£) Lower Year quartile Mean Median No. Rentals 2010 446 549 494 1,057 2011 446 531 494 1,716 2012 451 524 494 2,878 2013 451 523 494 2,992 2014 451 543 498 2,398 2015 451 538 524 2,690 2016 477 552 524 2,223

Source: Zoopla 2017

3.58 The distribution of median rents (2016) across the Metropolitan Borough by ward is shown in Map 3.1. This indicates that the rental costs are highest in the western wards, particularly Denton West, Denton South, Audenshaw, Droylsden West and Ashton Hurst. Rental costs are lowest in the four wards of St Peters, Ashton St Michael, Stalybridge North and Mossley.

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Map 3.1 Median rents 2016 by ward

Source: Zoopla 2017

3.59 The characteristics of private sector tenants are diverse and in particular the private rented sector in Tameside accommodates couples with children (35.4%) and lone parents (21.5%), couples with no children (27.4%), older singles and couples (5.7%), singles under 65 (5.2%) and other types of household including students (6.80%). 3.60 Of the total population living within the PRS in Tameside (39,778 across the 14,916 households), 11,885 are children. In other words, children aged under 16 years represent 29.9% of the PRS population. This proportion is highest in Dukinfield, where children account for just over half (52.8%) of the PRS population and lowest in St Peter’s where they account for 12.1%. The household survey found that 34.7% of children living in the PRS had lived in their home for less than two years and 36.0% for two to five years. Less than one third (29.4%) had lived in their accommodation for over five years. 3.61 Overall, 34.9% of private renting households have lived in their accommodation for less than two years. In terms of income, 39.5% of privately renting households receive less than £300 gross each week, 36.5% receive between £300 and £500 each week and 24.1% receive at least £500 each week, indicating that the private rented

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sector tends to accommodate lower income households. 75.7% of Household Reference People (Heads of Household) living in private rented accommodation are employed, 7.1% are wholly retired from work, 5.7% are permanently sick/disabled, 2.7% are unemployed and 7.5% are carers or looking after the home.

Views of letting agents on the private rented sector 3.62 Views were sought about the private rental market activity from a range of estate and letting agents working across Tameside to inform the HNA 2017. Interviews were carried out with:  Hunters (Stalybridge),  Your Move (Denton),  Home (Hyde, Ashton),  Reed Rains (Ashton, Denton),  WC Dawson (Stalybridge, Ashton, Hyde, Denton),  Edward Mellor (Stalybridge, Droysden, Denton),  Homeland (Audenshaw), and  Foxley Lettings (Droylsden). 3.63 The rental market in Tameside has grown considerably over recent years. It has a long-standing rental market but the volume of properties available for rent has increased through greater interest from investors (especially buy-to-let investors) There is a good supply of all types of rental properties which are in generally high demand in all the constituent towns. 3.64 Rental demand has increased substantially over recent years and looks likely to remain very strong. The proximity of some parts of the Borough to Manchester city centre, and the good transport links (Tameside is served by thirteen railway stations and excellent access to the M60, with Junctions 23 – 27 serving the area) makes it popular with people wanting to rent. 3.65 Agents report some concern, however, at the proposed ban on up-front fees, which it is felt could affect the quality of property coming onto the market, as agents may pass the cost onto the landlord who will either raise rents or reduce the amount spent on property maintenance.

Rental market trends Stalybridge 3.66 Rental demand is high and continuing to be buoyant. There is demand from all types of household traditionally in the rental market – single people, young couples and families. There is a good stock of rented properties on the books, but most are 1 or 2-bed homes. Rents for 1 or 2-bed properties range from £450 to £530 per month; from £650 to £700 for 3-bed and £975 or more per month for properties with 4

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bedrooms or more. The rental stock is felt to be able largely to meet demand but available properties let quickly.

Denton, Droylsden and Audenshaw 3.67 Denton (32 minutes by train), Audenshaw (20 minutes by tram) and Droylsden (15 – 20 minutes by tram) are both well connected to Manchester city centre. It has a variety of rental properties of differing sizes. Rents for 1 and 2-bed properties range from £525 to £560 per month; for 3-bed homes are £650 to £700 per month and for homes with 4-bedrooms or more are £975 per month or more. 3.68 This area is popular with young working people and students wishing to rent, either independently or sharing, and to smaller less affluent families. The most popular areas in Droylsden are the roads coming off Market Street and Manchester Road, where trams run regularly down to the Etihad campus, and there are new apartments for let, while in Denton and Audenshaw there is a stock of properties suited to larger families, or for letting as HMOs. 3.69 Investors have been active in buying properties to let, either as self- contained lets or as HMOs, as it is perceived that there is good capital growth, and reasonable yields of around 7% to 8%. It is also a popular place for first-time buyers, which gives landlords a potential exit strategy as well.

Ashton-under-Lyne, Mossley and Dukinfield 3.70 The area is well served by the tram and train (25 to 35 minutes from Manchester city centre) and has many traditional style 2-bedroom terraced properties that are attractive to young families, young couples without children and older couples whose children have flown the nest. It is popular with investors as it provides the best yields (up to 8.5%) due to the lower house prices. There is a good supply of rental properties to choose from but tend to be let quickly as the rental market is very buoyant in the area. The average rent is around £450 per month for a 2- bedroomed terraced property; between £550 and £700 for a 3-bedroomed family property. Larger properties are in short supply and a 4 or 5-bedroomed detached home could cost up to £1000 per calendar month.

Hyde, Mottram and Longdendale 3.71 The location of Hyde with proximity to the Peak District and the train connection to Manchester city centre (20 minutes) means that there is a growing rental market in Hyde especially at the higher end of the market. Most properties becoming available for letting are smaller properties, but some family size homes are also available to let and rents range from £440 to £560 per month for 1 or 2-bed properties, £650 to £700 for 3-bed homes and £900 or more for properties with 4 beds or more.

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Who is renting? 3.72 Renting in the Tameside area is popular with a range of household types – single people, either living independently, or sharing (in all areas but especially in Droylsden and Denton); young couples (in all areas), families (in all areas) and some older couples (particularly in Stalybridge and Ashton).

Preferences 3.73 Agents report that there are no dominant property preferences and that there is demand for all types of properties and locations in the private rented market across Tameside.

Affordable sector 3.74 There are around 23,498 households who live in an affordable accommodation within Tameside, accounting for 22.4% of all occupied dwellings. 3.75 Houses account for 57.0% of occupied affordable dwelling stock, 34.2% are flats/maisonettes and 7.7% are bungalows. Affordable dwellings tend to have one/bedsit (26.3%), two (41.2%) or three (29.8%) bedrooms, with a further 2.7% having four or more bedrooms. 3.76 20.8% of households living in affordable dwellings are older singles and couples, a further 9.5% are singles under 65, 18.5% are lone parents (children under 18), 18.6% are couples with children under 18, 12.8% are couples/lone parents with adult children, 15.0% are couples with no children and 4.7% are other household types. 3.77 46.1% of Household Reference People living in affordable housing are in employment. A further 19.0% are wholly retired from work, 15.5% are permanently sick/disabled, 7.0% are unemployed, 11.2% look after the home/are caring for someone and 1.2% are in full-time education/training. 3.78 Incomes are generally low, with 71.7% receiving an income of less than £300 gross each week and 41.3% receiving less than £200 gross each week.

Stakeholder views on the housing market in Tameside 3.79 Stakeholders were invited to participate in a survey aimed at identifying a range of information, including establishing the key perceived housing market issues in Tameside. Stakeholders were asked to respond to any of the questions within the survey that they felt related to their area of knowledge or experience. A total of 33 separate responses to the stakeholder consultation were obtained from a range of representatives from district councils, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, housing associations, housing developers, charities, the NHS, the Citizens Advice Bureau and the National Landlords Association. Respondents were asked to answer only the questions that they felt were relevant to their knowledge and experience. This is a qualitative summary of the views expressed by stakeholders responding to the online survey. It is worth noting that this analysis sets out the views and opinions

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expressed by those responding to the survey and it is therefore a snapshot in time, and already some aspects of housing policy have evolved further.

Priorities 3.80 Stakeholders were asked to rank a range of housing priorities as high, medium or low, their responses are summarised in Table 3.9.

Table 3.9 Ranking of priorities by stakeholders

Proposed priorities Low Medium High

Building homes to buy on the open market 26.3% 42.1% 31.6%

Building affordable homes to rent 0.0% 31.6% 68.4%

Building intermediate homes to rent 15.8% 63.2% 21.1%

Building market homes to rent 10.5% 57.9% 31.6%

Building affordable homes to buy - shared ownership 26.3% 36.8% 36.8%

Building affordable homes to buy - shared equity 31.6% 36.8% 31.6%

Building affordable homes to buy - starter homes 31.6% 31.6% 36.8%

Building affordable homes to buy - rent to buy 33.3% 38.9% 27.8%

Building executive homes 52.6% 26.3% 21.1%

Building properties designed for older people 15.8% 31.6% 52.6% Building properties designed for people with specialist needs 5.3% 42.1% 52.6%

Improving the quality of existing stock 0.0% 38.9% 61.1%

Encouraging and enabling self-build 47.4% 42.1% 10.5%

Encouraging and enabling custom-build 66.7% 22.2% 11.1%

Encouraging and enabling community-led build 52.6% 36.8% 10.5%

3.81 Building affordable homes to rent and improving the quality of existing housing stock were ranked as the highest priorities by stakeholders, both being ranked as a high priority by over 60% of respondents. No-one ranked these issues as low priority.

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Building properties designed for older people and building properties designed for people with specialist needs were also ranked as a high priority by at least half of respondents. 3.82 Building intermediate homes to rent and building market homes to rent were typically considered to be of medium to high priority. Building homes for purchase on the open and building affordable homes to buy (shared ownership, shared equity, starter ones and rent to buy) were ranked across all three categories, ranging from low to high priority. 3.83 Encouraging and enabling self-build, custom-build and community-led build were generally considered to be a low to medium priority, alongside building executive homes. 3.84 Stakeholders gave a range of reasons for identifying these priorities, including:  There are insufficient homes of all types and tenures;  There is a lack of affordable homes for either rent or purchase;  A lack of three-bedroom and larger family affordable housing was noted. Right to Buy options were noted to have ‘disproportionately decimated certain affordable and social rented properties (particularly family homes and large family homes)’;  A lack of homes available at social or affordable rent often results in people renting privately at high rents that are unsustainable, living in homes of poor condition and poor energy efficiency and under the threat of eviction;  A lack of small units (one and two bedrooms) affects those living in temporary accommodation who need to move on into settled housing;  A lack of specialist and supported housing, along with a lack of homes for older people;  It was noted that building homes for working people underpins economic growth. If suitable housing is not available within Tameside then outward migration to other districts will result. This includes home ownership and affordable housing options; and  Economically-active young (under 35) households are often looking for private rented accommodation or shared ownership options. 3.85 Asked if there are any other key housing priorities in the Tameside area, respondents mentioned:  Temporary housing, for homeless and those experiencing housing stress;  Potential demolition, clearance and regeneration of dated terraced properties; and  At least 2,000 reported homes in Tameside fall under the nominal empty homes programme, but there is a lack of substantial grants to renovate them.

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The current and future housing market in Tameside and housing market drivers 3.86 Stakeholders were asked whether they are aware of employees who travel to work within Tameside Council area from outside the district. Many stakeholders did not respond to this question and it wasn’t relevant to some. However, of those who responded, family commitments and choice were most frequently mentioned. Two respondents mentioned affordable housing as a factor. In terms of locations outside of Tameside, stakeholders reported that colleagues live in Oldham, Stockport, Salford, Leigh, Manchester, Cheshire, Wigan, Rossendale, Chorley, Liverpool, Preston, Lancashire, Wales, Yorkshire, Cumbria, and ‘across the North West’. 3.87 Stakeholders were asked whether they thought that employees who live outside of the district would move to the Tameside Council area if suitable housing was made available. Six respondents said yes, three said no and 13 said that they didn’t know. Advantages of living within Tameside were identified as convenience, a well- connected location and more affordable than South Manchester. 3.88 Stakeholders were asked to identify what they perceive to be the main drivers of housing demand in the Tameside Council area. Respondents acknowledged that housing demand varies across the study area. Drivers identified included:  Affordability was noted as important by several respondents. Affordability for existing residents and their children was noted as a key issue to retain residents, with high prices in some areas (e.g. Hyde and Stalybridge);  Varied range of housing types and sizes;  Some older properties that are outdated and of low quality;  Lack of affordable housing for rent has exacerbated the rising cost of private rented accommodation – negative impacts of an increasingly expensive private rented sector;  Location of Tameside, with good transport links and easy access to Manchester and Stockport;  Good schools;  High demand for three-bedroom mid-sized family accommodation;  ‘Rural feel’ and good education are positive factors;  Poor transport, unemployment and deprivation in some areas have a negative impact on owner occupation (desirability); and  The general trend observed in terms of demand is for higher demand in the west (Hyde (parts), Stalybridge, Audenshaw, Droylsden, Denton, Dukenfield (parts), Haughton Green and Gee Cross) and lower demand in the east (Ashton, Hattersley and Mossley). 3.89 Asked what they considered the current limitations of the housing market across Tameside to be, several stakeholders mentioned a lack of good quality land at an affordable price (a lot of land is contaminated), with some mentioning the knock-on shortage of new build properties. A lack of affordable housing was mentioned by several stakeholders, particularly a shortage of social rented houses. It was noted

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that large family homes are rarely available for social renting in the areas of choice. Some areas are blighted by low demand and empty homes, whilst other areas are in high demand. Financial priority means that sites are developed for high-value market schemes rather than affordable housing. A lack of adapted units and older people’s accommodation was also mentioned. The quality and location of different stock types was another limitation noted by one of the stakeholders. 3.90 Singles, couples and families were identified as the main household groups driving demand for housing in the Tameside Council area. 3.91 Stakeholders were asked for their views on house price trends in the survey area, including the impact of policy and financial changes. It was noted that it is often cheaper to buy than to rent, but only if people can get a mortgage at the right rate (and young people often struggle to get good credit scores). Year-on-year increases in house prices and rental prices were noted, above the rate of inflation and average wage growth. It was also mentioned that low interest rates for the past decade has meant that those people who can afford to buy have had relatively low monthly mortgage repayments. However, rates look set to rise and a large number of time- limited fixed-rate deals will expire, possibly leading to mortgage defaults, repossessions and potentially a similar situation to 2007/08. In terms of the rental market, larger deposits are needed than ever before, alongside rental increases; there are also additional fees and the need for many renters to have a guarantor. For people with little disposable income, saving for a deposit (for a rental property) is very difficult. Housebuilders noted that initiatives such as ‘Help to Buy’ have assisted purchasers in accessing three-bedroom properties rather than a typical two- bedroom first-time buyer home. There is limited two-bedroom new-build development at the present time as a result of this market shift. It was observed that the market in Tameside is still considered very affordable compared with the neighbouring Trafford area. However, within Tameside continued polarisation of the market (due to affordability and ward variances) was mentioned.

New housing provision 3.92 Some of the stakeholders who responded to the online survey were aware of new housing provision within the Tameside Council area. Locations identified where new build development is taking place are Stalybridge, Droylsden, Denton, Hyde, Hattersley, Gee Cross, Audenshaw, Dukinfield and Mossley. 3.93 One respondent noted that development tends to be driven by financial return for the developer. Several stakeholders stressed that the same factors influence new build development demand as general housing market demand (as above), including location, transport links, local facilities, schools and perceived desirability. One stakeholder also noted that regeneration activities are important in bringing new people into areas, remarking that some parts of the Borough need upfront investment to help establish values. 3.94 In terms of the demand profile for buying new-build dwellings, economically active couples, young families and older downsizers were mentioned, particularly seeking two- or three-bedroom houses. In terms of renting new-build dwellings, single

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people and couples were identified as typical end-users, seeking one- or two- bedroom properties. One stakeholder considered that the demand profile is currently roughly even, with an equal demand for private sale and private rent. High demand for affordable sales (low-cost sales was specifically mentioned) and affordable rent was also mentioned by two respondents. 3.95 Demand for new-build housing was generally considered to come from households currently living within Tameside, rather than people moving into the Borough. However, one stakeholder noted that some migration takes place on the fringes of Manchester. 3.96 In terms of identifying the best locations for new build development, one stakeholder mentioned that development should preferably take place on brownfield sites, but noted also that contamination is a key issue for this to be a sustainable approach. As with general market trends, the demand within the western part of the Borough was acknowledged to drive developer interest in this area. The popular areas of Droylsden, Dukenfield, Mosslyn and Hyde were highlighted. In addition, the Ashton Old Road ‘corridor’ was identified as an appealing location for people wishing to rent, with good transport links in and out of the economic centre. One stakeholder suggested that strategic decisions should be made across the Borough to determine areas where the market will deliver with limited intervention (high value or affluent areas) and areas where market intervention and local authority enabling is required, with potential for social rented housing and the use of grants. 3.97 In terms of the type and size of new housing, stakeholders recommended that a range of housing should be provided, from single accommodation through to large family homes. The following were mentioned specifically:  Two- and three-bedroom houses;  Larger four-bedroom detached houses;  One- and two-bedroom apartments; and  Larger bungalows for older people and those with disabilities. 3.98 A range of tenures was also recommended, allowing a balance of provision and balanced communities. Empty homes and obsolete premises were noted as a challenge, with stock condition being a significant problem across Greater Manchester. It was noted by one stakeholder that new development should not perpetuate segregation within the community. 3.99 A range of local interests in the Tameside area were reported by stakeholders, ranging from personal (home, family links, work location) through to their organisation owning significant local housing stock and having a ‘high stake’ in the Borough’s future. A few stakeholders stated that their organisation owns development land in Tameside; the majority of this is brownfield land, but one representative stated a ‘mixture’. 3.100 Barriers to new development reported by stakeholders include: obtaining land of a suitable size and scale; the cost of land and the lack of subsidy, particularly when seeking to deliver affordable housing provision; cost versus value factors in lower

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demand areas; assessing development finance; site assembly issues; planning policy, particularly on perceived open space; and opposition to development. 3.101 Asked how they envisaged the market for new build dwellings developing, the general view was that development will continue to take place, but that there may be a slow-down in the medium term. Rises in interest rates were mentioned, impacting upon mortgage affordability and ultimately house prices. Financial viability was mentioned, with questions over whether the Government will maintain their support to assist house purchase (Help to Buy etc) and funding for social rented accommodation. 3.102 In terms of the key messages in the HNS relating to housing markets, respondents made the following points:  Land release;  Publishing the surplus asset and/or brownfield asset register to identify potential development sites;  A clear strategy for Tameside;  The implementation of strategies, not just consultation and strategy development;  Market intervention, focused where it is required;  Working together with not-for-profit partners;  Avoiding further polarisation;  Considering affordability issues; and  Regulating the private rented sector.

The Private Rented Sector 3.103 Stakeholders were asked their views on the size of the private rented sector (PRS) in the Tameside area. There was a variety of responses. Some stakeholders were not sure. Two stated that the PRS is too big; this is on the basis that there are too many PRS properties in poor condition, managed by ‘dubious’ landlords with insecure tenancies and unaffordable rents. Two respondents considered that the PRS size is ‘about right’ and another stated that ‘there is no correct size, the size is a reflection of the demand that exists’. Two stakeholders expressed the view that the PRS in Tameside is too small. Both commented on the high demand that exists for PRS properties. 3.104 Stakeholders typically identified the PRS in Tameside as being characterised by predominantly poor-quality accommodation (with two or three bedrooms), along with a small proportion of higher end provision. It was reported that the majority of landlords own four or less units, with this type of property being ‘sporadically’ maintained. The lack of regulation was commented on, along with typically low quality and high rents (unaffordable).

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3.105 In terms of demand patterns, one respondent commented that the PRS in Tameside caters for all types of households in all types of housing. However, stakeholders stated that there is high demand for private rented properties in the west of the Borough along the Ashton Old Road corridor and the town centres; particularly mentioned were Mottram, Denton, Audenshaw, Stalybridge, Mossley and Gee Cross. These locations have good transport links to the economic centre. Lower demand was reported in Droylsden and Hyde. One respondent also considered Ashton to be an area of low demand, but another specified this as a location of high demand. 3.106 In terms of the role of buy-to-let in the local market, one respondent noted that there are speculative landlords who seek to make as much money as possible for little capital input. This results in poor provision, but with some people unable to access quality affordable rent (or social rent) properties there is a ‘captive market’ for cheaper PRS accommodation. Another respondent considered that buy-to-let is sometimes a first-step into home ownership for those on low incomes. Stakeholders also commented upon the impact of mortgage rate increases, tax changes and other pressures, with one stakeholder reporting a ‘declining’ buy-to-let market as a result. 3.107 Overall growth in the PRS in Tameside was reported, with the PRS overtaking the Registered Provider/Housing Association sector. One stakeholder suggested that the major role of the PRS is to provide an alternative tenure to households who cannot - or choose not to - go into home ownership. 3.108 A range of types of households were identified as seeking PRS housing in Tameside:  All types of household - singles, couples and families;  Young, economically-active households  Low-income households; and  Households who cannot afford the deposit, or cannot access a mortgage. 3.109 Several stakeholders commented upon the impact of changes in the economy and welfare on the PRS in Tameside. It was reported that welfare reform has had a significant impact, with under-occupation charges in social housing increasing demand for private rented accommodation. In addition, applicants on universal credit will struggle to attain private rented accommodation, especially in higher demand areas, with rent arrears levels and evictions likely to increase and result in general homelessness. It was reported that Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates have not kept pace with private rental prices, so households claiming housing benefit or universal credit are increasingly ‘locked out’ of the PRS. Many landlords have become ‘more selective’, stating ‘no DSS’ and do not accept tenants claiming these benefits. Several stakeholders commented on the PRS in Tameside moving away from accepting households who are in receipt of welfare benefits. 3.110 In terms of movement between tenures, several stakeholders mentioned movement between the PRS and the affordable sector. Where more affordable, sometimes better quality, rented accommodation becomes available in the social rented sector then PRS tenants will move. However, social rented tenants may move into the PRS. One respondent mentioned that they may do this to achieve larger houses where such accommodation is not available in the affordable sector.

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3.111 In terms of key strategic messages about the PRS to be identified in the HNS the following feedback was offered by stakeholders:  Better regulation, quality control and enforcement of housing standards;  Control of rent prices and agency fees;  Increased security for tenants;  An understanding that it is part of the overall housing offer; and  An understanding that the PRS provides a tenure of choice and can provide good quality accommodation that encourages tenant retention and the establishment of communities.

Affordable housing 3.112 The stakeholder survey included a number of registered providers and housing associations who work within Tameside Council area. Their portfolios include the provision of a range housing, particularly mentioned were family housing (typically two and three bedrooms) and one- and two-bedroom flats/apartments. 3.113 Five stakeholders answered the question of whether ‘Decent Home’ targets are being achieved. All five confirmed that these standards have been met by their organisation. 3.114 In terms of demand for affordable housing, the majority view was that there is high demand for affordable accommodation across Tameside. High demand in Dukinfield was noted. It was also reported that houses in the Haughton Green area are in high demand, and that the high-rise flats in this area have become increasingly popular following investment. 3.115 Four respondents said that their organisation is currently developing new affordable housing in the area. This includes affordable home ownership, intermediate tenures, affordable rent and social rent. One stakeholder said that their organisation is delivering affordable rental properties through the empty homes scheme, and adjusting existing stock for shared accommodation. Commercial to residential conversions were also mentioned. 3.116 Asked if the recent reductions in rental income imposed by the Government’s Budget cuts are likely to affect the number and type of affordable housing stakeholders develop, three respondents said yes, because the rent reductions have an impact on the affordability of new development. An additional stakeholder said that this was a short-term consideration. The impact on older people’s and special needs accommodation, such as Extra Care, was noted by two respondents. However, one further respondent stated that their organisation is determined to keep and possibly exceed their approved five-year delivery target. Another stated that they are not likely to build further supported housing until rental income and revenue funding is more certain. 3.117 Stakeholders considered that social and affordable housing should be for the following groups:

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 households on low incomes, or low-to-average incomes,  those who need it most,  key workers,  vulnerable people,  older people,  people with special needs, and  those with ‘additional preference need’, including those affected by welfare reforms, location connection, in or seeking employment, fostering/adoption and those leaving the armed forces. 3.118 Households purchasing affordable home ownership products were identified as including young couples (without children) and mature couples. One stakeholder mentioned that affordable home ownership products are usually for households who wish to remain in the area but can’t afford to buy outright, or households migrating into the area due to work. 3.119 Family homes were typically noted by stakeholders as being popular affordable housing products. Demand is high across the Borough, with one respondent reporting 100% occupancy and waiting lists. Haughton Green, Dukinfield, Hyde, Ashton and Stalybridge (parts of) were locations of high demand for affordable housing. One stakeholder suggested that the ‘bedroom tax’ (under-occupation charge) has resulted in one-bedroom properties being more popular. However, another respondent said that their organisation’s waiting list data suggests that one- and two-bedroom flats above ground floor level are the least popular. Low levels of turnover were noted, particularly in family housing. 3.120 No housing-related black and minority ethnic (BME) issues were raised by stakeholders, except that one respondent noted that their organisation has developed larger family housing for the BME and general large family needs, but this provision is being hit by the Right to Buy. With no support for enabling more provision the waiting lists for these types of property are getting longer. 3.121 None of the stakeholders reported that anti-social behaviour (ASB) is a serious problem. Such behaviour is encountered sporadically, but with no particular hotspots or trends. Two stakeholders identified some of the preventative tactics that their organisation employs to address ASB before it becomes a problem. 3.122 Stakeholders reported that tenant satisfaction is ‘generally good’ and levels of 84% and 90% were reported. Dips in satisfaction about responsive repairs and customer communications were noted by one stakeholder. 3.123 In terms of key messages for the SHMA relating to affordable housing, stakeholders made the following points:  More grants are needed to offset the rent reductions and enable more affordable homes to be built for rent for those in need;  Social rented housing is needed through direct build and Section 106 affordable housing provision; and

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 Partnering between the Council and housing associations, all of whom are committed to investing long-term in the Borough.

Specialist Housing 3.124 Five of the stakeholder survey respondents reported that they work in this sector, including working with a range of client groups including mental health, learning disabilities, older adults, physical disabilities, drug and/or alcohol problems and homeless households. 3.125 Asked whether policy changes have affected their organisations’ ability to deliver services to vulnerable groups in recent years, stakeholders expressed concern because of the financial viability challenge in seeking to provide an adequate service or fund future development. Accessing social and supported housing for their client groups has become increasingly difficult. Universal credit, benefit caps, rent reductions and reductions in budgets in mental health and children’s provision were all mentioned. In addition, the removal of local authority services and the demise of the ‘third sector’ were identified as contributing to the creation of a more challenging environment. One stakeholder involved in older adults’ (50+) accommodation reported that Sheltered Rent is currently out for consultation, with results expected in March 2018; they stated that this announcement has revived their current Extra Care development. 3.126 Asked where the areas of high and low demand for the specialist sector, one respondent said that this varies across the Borough. Another stakeholder mentioned a general lack of Extra Care developments across the Greater Manchester area. Reported changes in client groups include more under 35s evicted, increased mental health problems, more demand for intermediate care, increased numbers of homeless people and increased demand for Extra Care housing from an ageing population. One stakeholder said that pre-existing mental health and drug/alcohol problems are becoming more acute due to longer waiting times in temporary accommodation. Overall, there is increasing pressure and reduced choices, due to affordability. 3.127 Barriers to delivery were identified as including high costs versus the funding available and sustainability considerations. Revenue was also mentioned by one stakeholder. 3.128 The biggest housing stock shortages for independent living were identified as Extra Care, fully adapted apartments (one and two bedroom units) and social and supported housing for people suffering from mental health and drug/alcohol problems. 3.129 In terms of the key issues around the physical adaptations of properties, one stakeholder noted that most of their organisation’s stock was built in the 1930s to 1970s, being predominantly two-storey family housing or low-rise flats (with no lifts). Mobility issues of tenants are becoming an increasingly pressing issue. Another respondent stated that they provide up to 40% of the funding towards adaptations, in partnership with the local authority. Early information sharing (particularly around estimated costs and completion dates) would support planning. In addition, they

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suggested that planning with flexible equipment (to allow conversions when properties become void, such as bathroom alterations) would save costs which could be invested elsewhere. On the other hand, another stakeholder stressed the importance of being aware of the end-user, stating that general adaptation is not cost effective as it often does not meet the end-user’s specific needs. A lack of grants to finance adaptations was noted by another respondent, along with a lack of Occupational Therapy (OT) support. 3.130 Three stakeholders reported an increase in demand for support services over the past three years. Groups mentioned include vulnerable groups, people with mental health issues, street homeless people and those who are homeless who are living in unsupported temporary accommodation. One respondent stated increased demand ‘across the board’. 3.131 Asked what type and size of housing should be built to meet the requirements of older people, the following were identified: Extra Care developments, dementia special care developments, co-housing groups and two-bedroom bungalows. The latter was considered by one stakeholder to be the ‘ideal model’ to secure re- housing programmes and release larger homes. However, another stakeholder set out the view that ‘bungalows are a thing of the past’ and considered that most elderly residents are adequately housed in smaller apartments (two bedrooms), which in larger schemes could potentially utilise more modular construction methods to keep costs down. 3.132 In terms of housing requirements for people with additional needs, stakeholders recommended Extra Care schemes and adapted bungalows. However, one respondent highlighted that LHA caps are causing financial issues with the delivery of Extra Care and similar projects. 3.133 Stakeholder identified the following key messages for the SHMA in relation to supported living, independent living and older people’s housing:  Integration, not segregation;  Providing suitable accommodation, not minimum accommodation;  A register identifying key areas in Tameside to deliver supported, independent living and old people’s housing; and  Dealing with the LHA cap.

Sub-district housing affordability 3.134 This section constitutes an attempt at assessing housing affordability at a sub-district level. It is recognised that this is not definitive. However, it does assist in the understanding of the spatial distribution of affordability. 3.135 Maps 3.2 to 3.5 show postcodes in Tameside ascribed with income characteristics by CAMEO methodology. CAMEO is a consumer analysis database (like ACORN or CACI) combining public data and customer data. The points are the centroids of a postcode area and so can lie outside an actual housing location and do not characterise a specific point on the map. Locations with communal housing are not marked.

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Methodology 3.136 CAMEO assigns a standard range of incomes e.g. £10,000 to £20,000 that “mainly” represents households in an individual postcode. To obtain a single figure for calculations (and because we do not know what the actual distribution is) we assume the mid-point income level (in this case £15,000). 3.137 As these are mid-points of a range, it is probable that households will be clustered towards the lower end of the range. So, in practice, the percentage of households that can afford the stated monthly housing budget housing payments is likely to be lower. There are two variations to the mid-point rule. For sub £10,000 per annum incomes, we have assumed an income level of £7,500. For £100,000 and above, we have assumed an income of £100,000. This alters the affordability values, but only at the margins. In both cases qualitative judgements would be likely to contextualise the data (Table 3.10). 3.138 To determine what these incomes could afford in terms of rent and sale, we have assumed an upper limit of 24% of gross household income allocated to housing costs. This is a commonly used definition of affordability in the public sector.

Table 3.10 Housing Affordability estimates

Annual Income <£10k £15k £25k £35k £45k £62.5k £87.5k £100k+ pcm spend limit £150 £300 £500 £700 £900 £1,350 £1,750 £2,000

Value of home* £33k £66k £109k £153k £197k £296k £384k £439k *Assuming a 95% LTV repayment mortgage for 25 years at 3% interest **Percentages may not sum due to communal households not being counted

Analysis 3.139 As expected, there is a marked differentiation in affordability between areas:  Inner urban areas such as Ashton-under-Lyme have very concentrated levels of the lowest resourced residents.  By contrast, there are suburban fringes of better affordability. However, the halo effect is not consistently present around the inner urban areas.  There are clusters of higher income households in less urban areas e.g. Millbrook.  These clusters are often relating to significant transport routes e.g. the A6018 Mottram Road or north of Micklehurst. 3.140 To assist with understanding the differences, the map has been repeated for groups of incomes.

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Map 3.2 The summary affordability distribution

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Map 3.3 Sub £500 affordability distribution

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Map 3.4 The sub £500 up to £1,350 affordability distribution

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Map 3.5 The over £1,350 affordability distribution

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Relative affordability of housing options Tenure costs 3.141 The relative cost of alternative housing options across Tameside and by ward is explored in Table 3.11. This includes affordable and market rent options, owner occupation and intermediate tenure options, as well as Starter Homes. Table 3.12 shows the income (annual) required for alternative tenure options to be affordable by ward. 3.142 Assumptions underpinning the calculations are set out in Table 3.13.

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Table 3.11 Cost of alternative tenure options by Ward

Price by ward (2016) Denton Ashton St Ashton North Denton Denton Droylsden Droylsden Dukinfield Hyde Tenure option Ashton Hurst Michael's Waterloo Audenshaw East South West East West Dukinfield Stalybridge Godley Social Rent (average) £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 Affordable Rent £450 £398 £440 £475 £419 £475 £478 £440 £475 £419 £440 £419 (80% of median private rent) Market Rent - Lower Quartile £494 £451 £477 £494 £477 £550 £524 £494 £524 £477 £494 £451 Market Rent – Median £563 £498 £550 £594 £524 £594 £598 £550 £594 £524 £550 £524 Market Rent – Average £581 £519 £551 £625 £534 £595 £605 £572 £585 £546 £538 £523 Market Sale - Lower Quartile £100,000 £68,500 £78,000 £90,000 £84,000 £90,000 £116,750 £94,000 £88,000 £84,500 £100,000 £85,000 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Median £128,000 £90,000 £105,000 £130,250 £106,500 £108,000 £136,750 £119,000 £104,250 £104,250 £120,000 £115,000 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Average £148,339 £104,669 £111,067 £130,683 £112,209 £124,257 £140,265 £130,756 £111,231 £260,938 £128,093 £135,551 (assumes 10% deposit) Starter Home (20% discount) £102,400 £72,000 £84,000 £104,200 £85,200 £86,400 £109,400 £95,200 £83,400 £83,400 £96,000 £92,000 Starter Home (30% discount) £89,600 £63,000 £73,500 £91,175 £74,550 £75,600 £95,725 £83,300 £72,975 £72,975 £84,000 £80,500 Shared ownership (50%) £64,000 £45,000 £52,500 £65,125 £53,250 £54,000 £68,375 £59,500 £52,125 £52,125 £60,000 £57,500 Shared ownership (25%) £32,000 £22,500 £26,250 £32,563 £26,625 £27,000 £34,188 £29,750 £26,063 £26,063 £30,000 £28,750 Help to Buy £128,000 £90,000 £105,000 £130,250 £106,500 £108,000 £136,750 £119,000 £104,250 £104,250 £120,000 £115,000

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Table 3.11 Cost of alternative tenure options by Ward

Price by ward (2016) Stalybridge Tenure option Hyde Newton Hyde Werneth Longdendale Mossley St Peter's Stalybridge North South Total Social Rent (average) £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 £362 Affordable Rent £437 £419 £440 £398 £395 £395 £419 £419 (80% of median private rent) Market Rent - Lower Quartile £494 £477 £494 £451 £451 £425 £494 £477 Market Rent – Median £546 £524 £550 £498 £494 £494 £524 £524 Market Rent – Average £566 £567 £593 £518 £501 £506 £592 £552 Market Sale - Lower Quartile £83,000 £103,000 £73,000 £97,750 £64,000 £85,000 £100,000 £83,500 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Median £101,500 £131,000 £89,750 £117,000 £75,458 £102,700 £166,000 £112,000 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Average £139,412 £123,942 £150,141 £124,346 £137,649 £126,003 £131,754 £178,852 (assumes 10% deposit) Starter Home (20% discount) £81,200 £104,800 £71,800 £93,600 £60,366 £82,160 £132,800 £89,600 Starter Home (30% discount) £71,050 £91,700 £62,825 £81,900 £52,821 £71,890 £116,200 £78,400 Shared ownership (50%) £50,750 £65,500 £44,875 £58,500 £37,729 £51,350 £83,000 £56,000 Shared ownership (25%) £25,375 £32,750 £22,438 £29,250 £18,865 £25,675 £41,500 £28,000 Help to Buy £101,500 £131,000 £89,750 £117,000 £75,458 £102,700 £166,000 £112,000 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2017, Zoopla, CLG

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Table 3.12 Annual income required for alternative tenure options by ward Price by ward (2016) Ashton Ashton St Ashton Denton Denton Denton Droylsden Droylsden Dukinfield Hyde Tenure option Hurst Michael's Waterloo Audenshaw North East South West East West Dukinfield Stalybridge Godley Social Rent (average) £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 Affordable Rent (80% of median private £21,619 £19,123 £21,120 £22,810 £20,122 £22,810 £22,963 £21,120 £22,810 £20,122 £21,120 £20,122 rent) Market Rent - Lower £23,712 £21,648 £22,896 £23,712 £22,896 £26,400 £25,152 £23,712 £25,152 £22,896 £23,712 £21,648 Quartile Market Rent – Median £27,024 £23,904 £26,400 £28,512 £25,152 £28,512 £28,704 £26,400 £28,512 £25,152 £26,400 £25,152 Market Sale - Lower Quartile £25,714 £17,614 £20,057 £23,143 £21,600 £23,143 £30,021 £24,171 £22,629 £21,729 £25,714 £21,857 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Median £32,914 £23,143 £27,000 £33,493 £27,386 £27,771 £35,164 £30,600 £26,807 £26,807 £30,857 £29,571 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Average £38,144 £26,915 £28,560 £33,604 £28,854 £31,952 £36,068 £33,623 £28,602 £67,098 £32,938 £34,856 (assumes 10% deposit) Starter Home (20% £26,331 £18,514 £21,600 £26,794 £21,909 £22,217 £28,131 £24,480 £21,446 £21,446 £24,686 £23,657 discount) Starter Home (30% £23,040 £16,200 £18,900 £23,445 £19,170 £19,440 £24,615 £21,420 £18,765 £18,765 £21,600 £20,700 discount) Shared ownership (50%) £26,233 £19,257 £22,011 £26,646 £22,286 £22,562 £27,839 £24,581 £21,873 £21,873 £24,765 £23,847 Shared ownership (25%) £21,982 £16,268 £18,524 £22,320 £18,749 £18,975 £23,297 £20,629 £18,411 £18,411 £20,779 £20,027 Help to Buy £18,286 £12,857 £15,000 £18,607 £15,214 £15,429 £19,536 £17,000 £14,893 £14,893 £17,143 £16,429

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Table 3.12 Annual income required for alternative tenure options by ward Price by Ward (2016) Stalybridge Stalybridge Tenure option Hyde Newton Hyde Werneth Longdendale Mossley St Peter's North South Total Social Rent (average) £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 £17,393 Affordable Rent £20,966 £20,122 £21,120 £19,123 £18,970 £18,970 £20,122 £20,122 (80% of median private rent) Market Rent - Lower Quartile £23,712 £22,896 £23,712 £21,648 £21,648 £20,400 £23,712 £22,896 Market Rent – Median £26,208 £25,152 £26,400 £23,904 £23,712 £23,712 £25,152 £25,152 Market Sale - Lower Quartile £21,343 £26,486 £18,771 £25,136 £16,457 £21,857 £25,714 £21,471 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Median £28,800 £26,100 £33,686 £23,079 £30,086 £19,403 £26,409 £42,686 (assumes 10% deposit) Market Sale – Average £35,849 £31,871 £38,608 £31,975 £35,395 £32,401 £33,880 £45,991 (assumes 10% deposit) Starter Home (20% discount) £20,880 £26,949 £18,463 £24,069 £15,523 £21,127 £34,149 £23,040 Starter Home (30% discount) £18,270 £23,580 £16,155 £21,060 £13,582 £18,486 £29,880 £20,160 Shared ownership (50%) £21,369 £26,784 £19,212 £24,214 £16,588 £21,589 £33,209 £23,296 Shared ownership (25%) £17,997 £22,433 £16,231 £20,328 £14,082 £18,178 £27,695 £19,576 Help to Buy £14,500 £18,714 £12,821 £16,714 £10,780 £14,671 £23,714 £16,000

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Table 3.13 Assumptions in assessing income required for alternative tenure options Affordability Tenure Tenure price assumptions assumptions Social rent Prevailing prices Affordability 25% of income Affordable rent 80% of median market rent Affordability 25% of income Market Rent – Prevailing prices Affordability 25% of lower quartile income Market Rent – Prevailing prices Affordability 25% of median income Market Sale – Prevailing prices 90% LTV, 3.5x income lower quartile Market Sale – median Prevailing prices 90% LTV, 3.5x income Market Sale - average Prevailing prices 90% LTV, 3.5x income Starter Home 20% discount on full value (assumed to be 90% LTV, 3.5x income (20% discount) median), 10% deposit on discounted portion, remainder mortgage based on 3.5x income Starter Home 30% discount on full value (assumed to be 90% LTV, 3.5x income (30% discount) median), 10% deposit on discounted portion, remainder mortgage based on 3.5x income Shared ownership (50%) Total price based on median price and 50% 90% LTV, 3.5x income ownership. Mortgage based on 40%. 10% for equity and 25% of deposit required, annual service charge £395, income for rental Annual rent based on 2.75% of remaining element equity Shared ownership (25%) Total price based on median price and 25% 90% LTV, 3.5x income ownership. Mortgage based on 20%. 5% for equity and 25% of deposit required, annual service charge £395, income for rental Annual rent based on 2.75% of remaining element equity Help to Buy Total price based on median price. Mortgage 70% LTV, 3.5x income based on 75% equity. 20% loan and deposit of 5%. Loan fee of 1.75% in year 6 of outstanding equity loan increasing annually from yr7 at RPI+1%

3.143 This analysis indicates that for open market housing, the minimum indicative income required is £22,896 for lower quartile or entry-level renting in the Metropolitan Borough as a whole. For lower quartile or entry-level house prices (owner occupation) the minimum income required is £21,471.

Relative affordability of tenure options 3.144 Figure 3.5 sets out the relative affordability of alternative tenures in the study area. It uses lower quartile and median earnings derived from the 2017 Household Survey.

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Figure 3.5 Tameside Metropolitan Borough household income and housing costs comparison

£40,000

£30,000

£20,000

Deposit Income Required £10,000

LQ income Median income

£0

-£10,000 Deposit Deposit required incomerequired

-£20,000

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4. Understanding the future housing market in Tameside Introduction 4.1 In order to understand the future housing need and demands for housing, Local Planning Authorities are required to consider a range of data sources and information which identifies how key drivers of the local market and underlying trends will impact upon the structure of households and population over a fifteen year period and beyond. 4.2 This Chapter assesses the primary market drivers in Tameside, namely population growth and structure; economic change; and housing stock and aspirations.

Key market drivers 4.3 Essentially, there are three key primary drivers influencing the current (and future) housing market: demographic; economic and dwelling stock characteristics, as summarised in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Primary market drivers Primary Driver Attributes Impact on overall demand through: Demography Changing no. of households, household Natural Change structure, ethnicity Economy Jobs, income, activity rates, Economic migration unemployment Housing stock and Quality vs. aspirations, relative prices, Residential migration aspirations accessibility, development programmes

Source: arc4

4.4 In summary, the following demographic drivers will continue to underpin the operation of the Tameside Metropolitan Borough Housing Market Area:  An increasing population size overall during the forecast period, with a projected 7.4% increase (16,400 additional people) between 2017 and 203919;  There is a projected increase in the 15-29 years age cohort of (3.5%) and most notably an increase of 96.9% in the 80+ years age cohort;  The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 30.2% (19,000 additional people), with the proportion of the total population aged 65 and over

19 According to ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections

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increasing from 17.8% of the population in 2017 to 24.5% of the population in 2039. The proportion of the total population aged 80 years and over is projected to increase from 4.3% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2039; and  The 2017 Household Survey indicates that the following range of household groups currently live in Tameside: singles under 65 (6.2%); couples (under 65 with no children) (23.1%); couples with children under 18 (23.7%); couples with adult children (8.8%); couples 65 or over (10.7%); singles aged 65 or over (8.9%), lone parents with children under 18 (8.4%); lone parents with adult children (5.0%) and other household types including students (5.2%).

Table 4.2 Projected population change, 2017 to 2039 Change % Change Age Group 2017 2039 2017-39 2017-33 0-14 41,900 41,600 -300 -0.7% 15-29 39,500 40,900 1,400 3.5% 30-44 41,600 41,300 -300 -0.7% 45-64 60,300 56,900 -3,400 -5.6% 65-79 30,000 39,700 9,700 32.3% 80+ 9,600 18,900 9,300 96.9% Total 222,900 239,300 16,400 7.4%

% aged 65+ 39,600 58,600 % aged 80+ 9,600 18,900 Source: ONS 2014-based Subnational population projections Note: Data subject to rounding

4.5 The following economic drivers underpin the operation of the Tameside Metropolitan Borough Housing Market Area:  64.3% of Household Reference People are economically active and are in employment according to the 2017 Household Survey; a further 22.4% are retired; 5.4% are permanently sick/disabled; 4.9% are either looking after the home or provide full-time care; 2.4% are unemployed and available for work; and 0.7% are in education/training;  The 2011 Census data shows that 54.9% of residents in employment work in Tameside Metropolitan Borough administrative area. A further 19.5% work in Manchester, 9.5% work in Stockport, 5.4% in Oldham and 10.7% elsewhere;  According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, lower quartile earnings in 2016 across Tameside were £17,995 each year which compares with £19,001 for the North West region and £20,253 for England. Median incomes were £23,414, compared with a regional median of £26,178 and a national median of £28,503;  There is considerable income polarisation across Tameside. Combined with changes in the welfare system, issues surrounding low incomes are a significant

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concern. The 2017 Household Survey identifies that 25.1% of households receive less than £13,000 per annum, 37.8% receive more than £13,000 and less than £26,000 per annum and 37.0% receive more than £26,000 per annum;  Figure 4.1 presents household income by household type. Analysis demonstrates that incomes are lowest amongst lone parents and older singles (single adults 65+); and highest amongst couples and couples with children. 4.6 In terms of dwelling stock, the 2017 Household Survey reports that, across the Tameside Metropolitan Borough area:  81.5% of properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/maisonettes, 6.0% are bungalows and 0.7% are other property types (e.g. park homes or caravans);  7.3% have one bedroom/bedsit/studio, 32.0% have two bedrooms, 46.4% have three bedrooms and 14.4% have four or more bedrooms;  15.7% of properties were built before 1919, a further 18.4% were built between 1919 and 1944, 23.4% between 1945 and 1964, 20.7% between 1965 and 1984, 14.4% between 1985 and 2004 and 7.4% have been built since 2005; and  72.7% of properties are owner-occupied, 12.3% are private rented (including tied accommodation and student lets) and 15.0% are affordable (including rented from a social landlord and intermediate tenures).

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Figure 4.1 Summary of household income by household type

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Single Adult Single Adult Couple only Couple only Couple with at Couple with 3 Couple with Lone parent Lone parent Lone parent Other type of Total (under 65) (65 or over) (both under (one or both least 1 or 2 or more child(ren) with at least 1 with 3 or morewith child(ren) household 65) over 65) child(ren) children under aged 18+ or 2 child(ren) children under aged 18+ under 18 18 under 18 18

Less than £13,000 £13,000 to less than £26,000 £26,000 or more

Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Past trends in housing delivery 4.7 Over the ten years, 2006/07 to 2015/16 there has been an overall average of 464 completions per year across Tameside (Table 4.3). This compares with a current annual target of 680 dwelling completions. A comparison of annual completions and the annual target is set out in graphical form in Figure 4.2.

Table 4.3 Dwelling completions 2006/07 to 2015/16 Completions Year Total Target 2006/07 563 750 2007/08 789 750 2008/09 652 750 2009/10 253 750 2010/11 286 750 2011/12 330 750 2012/13 522 500 2013/14 366 500 2014/15 494 500 2015/16 380 680 Source: Tameside AMR 2006/07 – 2015/16 and CLG housebuilding table 253

Figure 4.2 Dwelling completions compared with the annual target

900

800

700

600

500 Total Dwellings Built 400 Target 300

200

100

Source: Tameside AMR 2006/07 – 2015/16 and CLG housebuilding table 253

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Suggested future development profile of market dwellings 4.8 Households intending to move in the open market were asked in the Household Survey what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to. This could then be compared with the current stock profile to identify any mismatches between availability and aspirations/expectation. The findings are set out in Table 4.4 and a summary is provided in Table 4.5. Of households moving, most would like to move to a house (83.3%), 9.7% would like to move to a bungalow, 4.6% to a flat and 2.4% to other property types. This compares with 90.4% who expect to move to a house, 0.8% to a bungalow, 7.2% a flat an 1.7% to other property types. A high proportion would like to move to a detached house (40.9%) but only 21.5% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (44.4%) than would like to 30.4%).

Table 4.4 Open market dwelling stock and preferences Dwelling stock, likes and expectations Current Private Dwelling type/size Stock % Like % Expect % Detached house /cottage 1-2 Beds 0.6 1.8 2.5 Detached house /cottage 3 Beds 5.7 16.1 7.0 Detached house /cottage 4 or more Beds 10.5 23.0 12.0 Semi-detached house /cottage 1-2 Beds 4.8 7.5 11.6 Semi-detached house /cottage with 3 Beds 28.6 18.8 28.3 Semi-detached house /cottage 4 or more Beds 5.1 4.1 4.5 Terraced house /cottage 1-2 Beds 17.3 6.1 13.5 Terraced house /cottage 3 Beds 14.2 5.2 10.9 Terraced house /cottage 4+ Beds 1.7 0.7 0.2 Bungalow 1-2 Beds 3.5 4.2 0.4 Bungalow 3 Beds 1.8 5.5 0.3 Bungalow 4+ Beds 0.2 0.0 0.0 Flat /Apartment 1 Bed 1.5 0.7 0.6 Flat /Apartment 2 Beds 3.4 3.6 6.4 Flat /Apartment 3+ Beds 0.5 0.3 0.2 Other 1 Bed 0.1 0.1 0.5 Other 2 Beds 0.2 1.5 0.9 Other 3+ Beds 0.4 0.7 0.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (valid responses) 81,619 21,148 21,148 Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Table 4.5 Open market dwelling stock and preferences % Profile of new dwelling stock based on: Dwelling type/size summary Current stock Like Expect House 1/2 Beds 22.7 15.5 27.6 House 3 Beds 48.4 40.0 46.1 House 4 or more Beds 17.3 27.8 16.7 Bungalow 5.5 9.7 0.8 Flat 5.4 4.6 7.2 Other 0.7 2.4 1.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 81,619 21,148 21,148 Source: 2017 Household Survey

4.9 This analysis of the 2017 Household Survey findings suggests that on the basis of household aspirations (likes), demand for the delivery of three and four-plus bedroom houses is highest. There is also a desire for bungalows (9.7%), but a much lower level of actual stock of this type of dwelling is available (5.5%). Development more reflective of household expectation would result in developing three and four- bedroom houses along with bungalows. However, factors such as density – and particularly seeking to maximise dwelling density in new developments – will also be important for the Council to consider in terms of their policy response. 4.10 The following graph shows the overall picture in Tameside of current stock and future market development based on a blend of aspirations and expectations.

Figure 4.3 Current stock versus suggested future market development

Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Future executive housing development 4.11 Although it is difficult to define executive housing, distinctive features include:  High property values linked to desirable locations, with high incomes/equity required to support the purchase; and  High quality construction including exterior and interior fittings. 4.12 This HNA is to investigate the requirements for executive housing through a review of existing provision, stakeholder discussions and analysis of household survey evidence. Overall, in Tameside, executive housing provision could have a role in response to the need for diversification and expansion of the Greater Manchester economy and in contributing towards achieving wider population and economic growth objectives. 4.13 The Household Survey can be used to explore the housing options being considered by higher income groups (with a weekly income of at least £950). Reviewing the housing aspirations of higher income groups is an important way of investigating the potential demand for executive housing and ensuring that a balanced housing market offering is promoted in the future. 4.14 The Household Survey identifies 3,189 households with an income of at least £950 each week who are planning to move in the next five years. Of this group of high income households, just over half (51.5%) stated a first preference location within Tameside. 4.15 In terms of dwelling preferences, likes and expectations are summarised in Table 4.6. This indicates strongest aspiration towards detached houses with three or more bedrooms. In reality, however, more households expect to move to semi-detached houses.

Table 4.6 Open market dwelling stock and preferences for higher income households Likes and expectations

Dwelling type/size Like % Expect % Detached house 1-2 Beds 2.8 0.3 Detached house 3 Beds 25.7 14.7 Detached house 4 or more beds 48.0 28.5 Semi-detached house 1-2 beds 10.4 6.9 Semi-detached house 3 beds 2.4 28.4 Semi-detached house 4 or more beds 1.2 7.9 Terraced house 1-2 Beds 1.5 3.0 Terraced house 3 Beds 3.8 5.9 Terraced house 4+ beds 1.5 Flat /Apartment 2 beds 2.6 1.4 Bungalow 3 beds 0.4 Other 2 beds 2.6 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 Base (valid responses) 3,189 3,189 Source: 2017 Household Survey

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4.16 The survey analysis shows an executive housing product focusing on larger detached properties would be appropriate for Tameside. 4.17 Tables 4.7 and 4.8 consider the current dwelling stock profile of open market dwellings by ward and then the extent to which this varies from the stock profile based on the aspirations (likes) and expectations of households planning to move (using area-level data), based on the findings of the Household Survey. Where cells are colour-coded: a green spot indicates that the current proportion of dwelling stock is greater than the aspiration/expectation for that dwelling stock; a red spot indicates that the proportion of dwelling stock is lower than the aspiration/expectation. Therefore, a red spot suggests there is a lack of that particular type of dwelling type and size in that sub- area. 4.18 Table 4.9 then considers the dwelling ranges appropriate for wards based on the aspirations and expectations of households. This establishes potential percentage splits between different property types based on current dwelling stock, household aspirations and expectations.

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Table 4.7 Comparison between current dwelling stock and market aspirations Ashton St Ashton Droylsden Droylsden Dukinfield Property type/size Ashton Hurst Michael's Waterloo Audenshaw Denton North EastDenton South Denton West East West Dukinfield Stalybridge Detached house 1-2 Beds -2.2 0.0 0.0 -5.3 0.3 1.9 0.3 0.4 0.0 -18.6 0.0 Detached house 3 Beds -13.8 -24.7 -2.5 -8.9 9.1 3.6 -34.4 -12.5 -13.1 1.2 -13.4 Detached house 4 or more beds 3.4 -10.9 -23.4 -3.1 -11.9 -29.0 -2.4 -16.0 -28.8 -28.5 -31.6 Semi-detached house 1-2 beds 2.4 -0.2 -3.5 1.7 -2.8 -10.9 3.9 -7.5 10.7 2.9 2.4 Semi-detached house 3 beds 11.6 0.3 -0.1 5.1 -16.9 12.0 37.8 28.2 6.5 17.5 28.2 Semi-detached house 4 or more beds 0.3 5.7 3.9 -5.9 3.8 3.6 -1.5 -2.2 3.2 3.6 2.3 Terraced house 1-2 Beds 1.0 20.7 16.6 16.1 9.6 1.5 4.7 10.3 1.8 19.2 3.0 Terraced house 3 Beds 2.8 13.8 11.0 8.4 14.0 16.2 -1.9 1.5 7.7 2.5 14.7 Terraced house 4+ beds 1.0 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.3 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.0 Bungalow 1-2 Beds 1.0 -0.4 -0.6 1.7 5.1 1.5 5.5 -5.1 1.1 -4.2 1.1 Bungalow 3 beds -11.1 0.4 -2.1 -0.3 -3.9 -4.3 -2.1 -1.4 0.4 -1.1 -5.4 Bungalow 4+ beds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Flat /Apartment 1 Bed 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 3.0 1.2 3.2 3.3 4.3 -1.3 Flat /Apartment 2 Beds 1.6 -6.1 -3.7 -10.8 2.4 1.8 -4.4 -0.6 1.4 0.0 4.8 Flat /Apartment 3+ Beds 1.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 1 Bed 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 2 Beds 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -9.7 -2.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0

Other 3+ Beds 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.7 0.0 3.5 0.0 -4.7

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Table 4.7 (continued)

Ashton St Ashton StalybridgeDroylsden StalybridgeDroylsden Dukinfield Property type/size HydeAshton Godley HurstHydeMichael's Newton HydeWaterloo WernethAudenshawLongdendaleDenton MossleyNorth EastDenton SouthSt Peter'sDenton WestNorthEast SouthWest DukinfieldTotal Stalybridge Detached house 1-2 Beds 1.0-2.2 -1.30.0 0.0-3.5 -5.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.90.3 1.00.4 0.00.1 -18.6 -1.2 0.0 Detached house 3 Beds 1.1-13.8 -27.8-24.7 -2.5-8.2 -8.9 -18.5 9.1 -16.6 3.6 0.5-34.4 -12.52.8 -13.1-13.0 1.2-10.4 -13.4 Detached house 4 or more beds 0.9 3.4 -10.94.6 -23.4-14.0 -3.1 -17.0 -11.9 -27.4 -29.0 -36.4-2.4 -10.8-16.0 -28.818.0 -28.5-12.4 -31.6 Semi-detached house 1-2 beds 3.7 2.4 -24.5-0.2 -3.5-0.2 1.7 0.9 -2.8 -7.4 -10.9 -40.13.9 0.1-7.5 10.72.6 2.9 -2.8 2.4 Semi-detached house 3 beds -20.111.6 28.50.3 -0.127.3 5.1 0.0 -16.9 3.8 12.0 5.637.8 28.25.6 -14.96.5 17.5 9.8 28.2 Semi-detached house 4 or more beds -6.2 0.3 3.05.7 3.9-10.1 -5.9 0.3 3.8 10.3 3.6 5.8-1.5 2.3-2.2 3.20.6 3.6 0.9 2.3 Terraced house 1-2 Beds 18.2 1.0 15.220.7 16.616.5 16.1 12.5 9.6 24.7 1.5 27.24.7 10.35.3 1.810.5 19.211.2 3.0 Terraced house 3 Beds 4.4 2.8 21.113.8 11.0 0.6 8.4 17.8 14.0 15.0 16.2 21.6-1.9 4.91.5 7.77.7 2.5 9.0 14.7 Terraced house 4+ beds -4.5 1.0 1.20.4 2.2 1.4 2.2 5.3 0.3 1.6 1.3 3.90.8 4.21.4 1.10.2 1.1 1.0 0.0 Bungalow 1-2 Beds -0.1 1.0 1.3-0.4 -0.6-10.4 1.7 0.9 5.1 2.3 1.5 0.75.5 -3.6-5.1 1.1-7.3 -4.2 -0.7 1.1 Bungalow 3 beds 1.3-11.1 -23.60.4 -2.1 0.6 -0.3 -4.5 -3.9 -5.2 -4.3 0.0-2.1 -3.4-1.4 0.4-3.5 -1.1 -3.7 -5.4 Bungalow 4+ beds 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.00.3 0.00.0 0.00.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 Flat /Apartment 1 Bed 0.5 0.0 0.21.0 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 1.61.2 0.83.2 3.30.2 4.3 0.8 -1.3 Flat /Apartment 2 Beds 0.9 1.6 2.2-6.1 -3.7-1.5 -10.8 -1.1 2.4 3.5 1.8 13.6-4.4 -5.0-0.6 1.4-0.9 0.0 -0.3 4.8 Flat /Apartment 3+ Beds 0.0 1.9 0.00.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.5 0.0 6.20.0 -2.70.4 0.00.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 Other 1 Bed 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.3-1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.00.0 -0.50.0 0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 Other 2 Beds -1.1 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -0.6 -9.7 0.2 -2.3 -12.20.0 -1.00.0 1.1-0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.0 Other 3+ Beds 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.0 -4.6 0.0 0.0-7.7 0.00.0 3.50.0 0.0 -0.3 -4.7 Source: 2017 Household Survey

Key

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Table 4.8 Comparison between current dwelling stock and market expectations Ashton St Ashton Denton North Denton Droylsden Droylsden Dukinfield Property type/size Ashton Hurst Michael's Waterloo Audenshaw East Denton South West East West Dukinfield Stalybridge Detached house 1-2 Beds -4.9 0.0 -1.2 0.9 0.3 4.5 -1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Detached house 3 Beds -2.6 0.0 -8.7 -6.4 -1.5 -4.5 -3.7 4.4 5.5 6.3 1.5 Detached house 4 or more beds 5.6 0.8 -12.3 5.7 -3.3 2.1 -2.5 -9.6 -15.6 5.2 -12.8 Semi-detached house 1-2 beds -7.2 -4.5 -6.8 -5.5 5.5 -14.1 -10.6 -8.6 10.7 -16.4 -14.9 Semi-detached house 3 beds 1.6 -6.8 25.3 -6.9 6.8 19.1 6.4 -6.9 -16.2 -7.3 13.9 Semi-detached house 4 or more beds 0.3 2.6 0.2 4.5 -0.9 -20.5 -1.7 4.0 3.2 -12.1 2.3 Terraced house 1-2 Beds -6.1 3.6 15.4 16.1 -17.1 1.3 4.7 1.2 2.6 1.4 -4.7 Terraced house 3 Beds 0.5 7.7 -18.1 -2.0 5.1 16.2 -2.1 9.6 -2.1 16.2 8.8 Terraced house 4+ beds 1.0 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.3 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.0 Bungalow 1-2 Beds 5.6 0.7 3.9 3.6 7.2 4.2 11.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 5.1 Bungalow 3 beds 2.8 0.4 1.6 1.5 5.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.3 3.5 Bungalow 4+ beds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Flat /Apartment 1 Bed 0.0 1.6 0.8 -1.4 0.2 3.0 1.2 3.2 3.3 4.3 2.4 Flat /Apartment 2 Beds 1.5 -6.6 -3.7 -12.7 2.4 -13.9 -4.4 -0.6 1.4 0.0 -0.4 Flat /Apartment 3+ Beds 1.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 1 Bed 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 2 Beds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -2.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 Other 3+ Beds 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 3.5 0.0 -4.7

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Table 4.8 (continued)

Ashton St Ashton DroylsdenStalybridge Droylsden Stalybridge Dukinfield Property type/size HydeAshton Godley Hurst HydeMichael's NewtonWaterlooHyde WernethAudenshawLongdendaleDenton NorthMossley EastDenton SouthStDenton Peter's West EastNorth West SouthDukinfieldTotalStalybridge Detached house 1-2 Beds 1.0-2.2 0.0-6.0 0.0 -4.5 -5.3 -21.6 0.3 -0.21.9 0.31.9 0.4 1.0 0.0 -6.6-18.6 -1.80.0 Detached house 3 Beds 1.9-13.8 -24.7-1.7 -2.5 -9.6 -8.9 1.6 9.1 -3.13.6 -34.40.5 -12.5 -1.5 -13.1 0.1 1.2 -1.3-13.4 Detached house 4 or more beds 12.63.4 -10.94.6 -23.4 -7.8 -3.1 5.2-11.9 -17.8-29.0 -2.4-24.3 -16.0 9.7 -28.8 17.5-28.5 -1.5-31.6 Semi-detached house 1-2 beds -6.32.4 -32.2-0.2 -3.5 -4.0 1.7 -2.7-2.8 -7.6-10.9 3.91.4 -7.5 -5.7 10.7 -3.2 2.9 -6.82.4 Semi-detached house 3 beds -21.411.6 0.3-4.0 -0.1 6.0 5.1 -25.3-16.9 -3.912.0 37.85.6 28.2 13.7 6.5 -16.217.5 28.20.4 Semi-detached house 4 or more beds -4.90.3 5.73.0 3.9 4.0 -5.9 0.2 3.8 10.33.6 -1.5-6.4 -2.2 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 0.62.3 Terraced house 1-2 Beds 17.01.0 20.713.9 16.6 5.8 16.1 12.5 9.6 12.61.5 4.724.4 10.3 5.1 1.8 0.719.2 3.83.0 Terraced house 3 Beds -3.72.8 13.821.1 11.0 7.3 8.4 17.714.0 5.316.2 -1.924.6 1.5-23.4 7.7 -2.1 2.5 14.73.3 Terraced house 4+ beds 1.31.0 0.41.2 2.2 1.4 2.2 5.3 0.3 1.61.3 0.83.9 1.4 4.2 1.1 0.2 1.1 1.50.0 Bungalow 1-2 Beds 1.01.0 -0.43.6 -0.6 -1.1 1.7 2.6 5.1 3.21.5 5.50.7 -5.1 1.7 1.1 2.5-4.2 3.01.1 Bungalow 3 beds 1.3-11.1 0.40.0 -2.1 1.6 -0.3 3.4-3.9 1.4-4.3 -2.10.0 -1.4 0.0 0.4 4.1-1.1 1.5-5.4 Bungalow 4+ beds 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.0 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.3 0.00.0 0.30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.0 Flat /Apartment 1 Bed 0.50.0 1.00.2 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.83.0 1.21.6 3.2 0.8 3.3 0.2 4.3 1.0-1.3 Flat /Apartment 2 Beds 0.81.6 -6.1-3.7 -3.7 -1.5 -10.8 -2.9 2.4 1.31.8 -4.4-27.9 -0.6 -5.1 1.4 -0.9 0.0 -3.14.8 Flat /Apartment 3+ Beds 0.01.9 0.00.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.10.0 0.06.2 0.4 -2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.30.0 Other 1 Bed 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.20.0 0.00.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.50.0 Other 2 Beds -1.10.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -0.6-9.7 0.2-2.3 -12.20.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 -0.70.0 Other 3+ Beds 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -4.60.0 -7.70.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.2-4.7 Source: 2017 Household Survey

Key

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Table 4.9 Current market dwelling stock profile and requirements based on household aspirations and expectations

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Table 4.9 (continued)

Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Concluding comments 4.19 The purpose of this chapter has been to explore how key drivers of the local market and underlying trends impact upon the structure of households and population moving forward. 4.20 This chapter has therefore considered the following three key primary drivers influencing the current and future housing market: ● Demographic information; ● Economic information; and ● Dwelling stock information. 4.21 In line with Government 2014-based population projections, Tameside is forecast to see population growth of 7.4% over the period 2017 to 2039. Within this forecast, there will be significant growth (48.0%) in older age groups (65+ years). 4.22 The rate of employment in Tameside is around 64.3% and 22.4% of households are wholly retired from work (2017 Household Survey). There is however a noticeable degree of polarisation within earnings, with 37.8% of all households receiving less than £13,000 per annum and 37.0% receiving at least £26,000 per annum. 4.23 According to the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (2016), lower quartile income in Tameside is below that of the North West and the national lower quartile. Median incomes in Tameside are also lower than the regional median and the national median. 4.24 The delivery of new build housing (all tenures) has fluctuated since 2006/07. The highest number completed was in 2007/08 (789) and the lowest was in 2009/10 (253). The average over the ten-year period was 444 completions. 4.25 The chapter has also presented information to help the Council and its partners determine appropriate ranges of new development across the Borough.

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5. The need for all types of housing Introduction 5.1 The purpose of this chapter is to consider the range of need for all types of housing as identified in PPG paragraph 21. PPG recommends that planning authorities consider the need for certain types of housing and the needs of different groups, including the private rented sector, people wishing to build their own homes, family housing, housing for older people, households with specific needs and student housing. 5.2 This chapter begins with an analysis of the mix of dwellings by type and size over the Plan Period and then considers affordable housing need as a component of future dwelling requirements.

Current households in need 5.3 A robust and defensible assessment of housing need is essential for the development of housing policies. Housing need is defined in PPG as: ‘The number of households and projected households who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market’’20. 5.4 The 2017 Household Survey and a range of secondary data provide the robust and transparent evidence base required to assess housing need across the Tameside Metropolitan Borough area. This is presented in detail at Appendix B of this report and follows CLG modelling guidance. 5.5 Across Tameside there are 9,589 existing households in need which represents 9.1% of all households. Reasons for housing need are summarised in Table 5.1.

20DCLG, PPG, Housing and economic development needs assessments, paragraph 22

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Table 5.1 Summary of current housing need across Tameside Category Factor Tameside Metropolitan Borough N1 Under notice, real threat of notice 284 or lease coming to an end Homeless households or N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of with insecure tenure housing benefit or in arrears due to 1,146 expense N3 Overcrowded according to the 4,343 'bedroom standard' model N4 Too difficult to maintain 1,037 N5 Couples, people with children and Mismatch of housing single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, need and dwellings bathroom or WC with another 1,916 household N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special needs living in unsuitable 1,457 accommodation N7 Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have 158 Dwelling amenities and resource to make fit condition N8 Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have 644 resource to make fit N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others Social needs living in the vicinity which cannot be 827 resolved except through a move Total no. households in need (with one or more housing need) 9,589 Total Households 104,840 % households in need 9.1% Note: A household may have more than one housing need. Source: 2017 Household Survey

5.6 Table 5.2 summarises overall housing need (before further analysis to test the extent to which households can afford open market provision to offset their need) by ward and the extent to which housing need varies across Tameside. The proportion of households in need varies across all the wards. The proportion is highest in ward of Ashton Waterloo (16.6%) and Denton North East (15.9%) and lowest in the ward of Stalybridge South (3.8%) and Mossley (3.9%).

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Table 5.2 Households in need by ward % H'holds in Total no. Ward No. H'holds in need need households Ashton Hurst 447 8.8 5,093 Ashton St Michael's 628 11.7 5,376 Ashton Waterloo 839 16.6 5,050 Audenshaw 673 12.3 5,486 Denton North East 837 15.9 5,275 Denton South 728 13.5 5,380 Denton West 361 7.0 5,178 Droylsden East 239 4.2 5,664 Droylsden West 606 11.7 5,174 Dukinfield 440 7.6 5,801 Dukinfield Stalybridge 268 5.1 5,258 Hyde Godley 561 9.1 6,160 Hyde Newton 869 13.7 6,339 Hyde Werneth 448 8.9 5,022 Longdendale 291 5.5 5,305 Mossley 207 3.9 5,367 St Peter's 461 6.4 7,158 Stalybridge North 497 8.5 5,837 Stalybridge South 188 3.8 4,917 Tameside Total 9,589 9.1 104,840 Source: 2017 Household Survey

5.7 Tables 5.3 and 5.4 demonstrate how the proportion of households in housing need varies by tenure and household type for Tameside. Those in private rented accommodation tend to be in greater housing need (18.5%), which must also be considered in the context of typically greater insecurity of tenure. The research identifies around 14,476 households with adult children living with parent(s), which provides a broad indication of the scale of hidden housing need (of whom 1,526 are classified as being in need unless the person wants to remain in the family home).

Table 5.3 Housing need by tenure No. H'holds in % H'holds in Total no. Tenure need need households Owner Occupied 4,020 6.1 66,426 Private Rented 2,815 18.5 15,191 Affordable (Social/Affordable Rented and 2,754 11.9 23,223 Intermediate) Total (All households in need) 9,589 9.1 104,840 Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Table 5.4 Housing need by household type No. H'holds in % H'holds Total no. Household Type need in need households Single Adult (under 65) 436 6.7 6,462 Single Adult (65 or over) 344 3.7 9,270 Couple only (both under 65) 1,191 4.9 24,142 Couple only (one or both over 65) 453 4.1 11,159 Couple with 1 or 2 child(ren) under 18 2,050 9.9 20,725 Couple with 3 or more children under 18 1,287 32.2 3,994 Couple with child(ren) aged 18+ 673 7.3 9,238 Lone parent with 1 or 2 child(ren) under 18 604 7.8 7,761 Lone parent with 3 or more children under 18 362 35.0 1,034 Lone parent with child(ren) aged 18+ 853 16.3 5,238 Other type of household 1,337 24.7 5,423 Total (All households in need) 9,589 9.1 104,840 Source: 2017 Household Survey

Affordable housing requirements 5.8 A detailed analysis of the following factors determines the extent to which there is a shortfall of affordable housing:  households currently in housing which is unsuitable for their use and who are unable to afford to buy or rent in the market (backlog need);  New households forming who cannot afford to buy or rent in the market;  Existing households expected to fall into need; and  The supply of affordable housing through social/affordable renting and intermediate tenure stock. 5.9 The needs assessment model advocated by the DCLG has been used and a detailed analysis of each stage of the model is presented in Appendix C. 5.10 The 2017 HNS has identified an annual imbalance of 421 affordable dwellings across Tameside each year. This should not be seen as a target but demonstrates the scale of need which the Council should seek to reduce through, for instance, newbuild stock. 5.11 In addition to establishing the overall affordable housing requirements, the analysis considers variations by ward, designation (general needs and older person) and property size.

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Table 5.5 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by ward, property size and designation 2017/18 to 2027/28 General Needs Older Person Ward 1/2 Bed 3+ Bed 1/2 Bed Total Ashton Hurst 20 19 2 42 Ashton St Michael's 69 16 6 91 Ashton Waterloo 86 29 12 127 Audenshaw 30 51 17 98 Denton North East 21 46 12 80 Denton South 46 10 4 59 Denton West -1 20 7 26 Droylsden East 33 16 10 59 Droylsden West 10 52 11 73 Dukinfield 21 35 2 58 Dukinfield Stalybridge 4 5 2 10 Hyde Godley 30 -86 -6 -62 Hyde Newton 17 -44 -57 -84 Hyde Werneth -5 38 3 36 Longdendale 0 -12 -3 -15 Mossley -11 -12 -5 -28 St Peter's 0 -6 -19 -25 Stalybridge North 0 -81 -32 -112 Stalybridge South -7 -4 -2 -13 Tameside Total 365 93 -37 421

Sources: 2017 Household Survey; RSL CORE Lettings and Sales

Affordable housing tenure split 5.12 Determining an appropriate tenure split for housing has been traditionally based on the incomes and tenure aspirations of existing households in need and newly forming households. This is used to determine an appropriate split between rented and intermediate tenure dwellings. However, the increasing emphasis of Government policy to build affordable homes for sale through intermediate tenure options and the Starter Homes initiative, coupled with housing associations having to fund schemes for rent without subsidy, is expected to have a major impact on the scale and range of affordable housing to be delivered. 5.13 Analysis has carefully considered the range of affordable tenures that may be appropriate for existing households in need and newly-forming households. This is set out in detail in Appendix C. 5.14 Table 5.6 summarises an appropriate tenure split on the basis of the tenure considerations of existing and newly-forming households. Analysis would suggest that a tenure split of 63.9% rented and 36.1% intermediate tenure would be appropriate across Tameside.

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Table 5.6 Affordable housing tenure options: existing and newly-forming households Affordable tenure Existing Newly-forming Total Affordable Rented 63.4 64.2 63.9 Intermediate Tenure 36.6 35.8 36.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (annual backlog clearance of existing households In 645 1166 1,811 need and newly-forming households) Source: 2017 Household Survey

Property type preferences 5.15 Analysis of property type preferences, based on the aspirations of existing households and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing is set out in Table 6.7. This suggests that, primarily the provision of houses is a priority (71%) followed by flats (19.3%) flats and bungalows (9.7%).

Table 5.7 Property type preferences Type preferences Existing (%) Newly-forming (%) Total (%) House 72.4 70.3 71.0 Flat 4.0 27.7 19.3 Bungalow 23.5 2.0 9.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (annual backlog clearance of existing households In need and newly-forming households) 645 1,166 1,810 Based on expectations of existing households in need and what newly-formed households have moved to in the past 5 years Source: 2017 Household Survey

Dwelling mix and affordability 5.16 The NPPF (paragraph 159) states that local authorities should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the Plan period. 5.17 Table ES1 below provides our recommendation on the potential dwelling tenure, type and size split for housing delivery in Tameside. This assumes that 15% of homes delivered are affordable based on past trends in affordable delivery.

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Table 5.8 Suggested dwelling mix by market and affordable dwellings based on OAN of 680 each year Overall dwelling size mix Market Affordable Total Overall tenure split 85 15 100 House 1-2 Bed 124 32 156 House 3+ Bed 249 37 286 House 4+ Bed 129 3 132 Bungalow 30 10 40 Flat/Apartment 34 20 54 Other 12 0 12 Total 578 102 680 Source: arc4

Starter Homes 5.18 The Government introduced the concept of Starter Homes to help meet the housing needs of young first-time buyers by offering properties to buy at below their open market value. The NPPF (2012) outlines the key characteristics of Starter Homes21. They are to be well-designed and suitable for young first-time buyers (between 23 and under 40 years of age). Starter Homes area also available to ex-Armed Forces personnel of any age. 5.19 The Housing and Planning Act 2016 put in place the legislative structure for the provision of Starter Homes, which was one of the Government’s key policies to help younger households access owner-occupation. Whilst it is subject to secondary legislation, the principle is established that new housing developments will be expected to provide a proportion of Starter Homes, made available to eligible households at a 20% discount from market price up to a maximum house price of £250,000 outside of London and £450,000 within London. 5.20 Analysis of market prices indicates that a Starter Home price would be between £89,600 (30% discount on median house price 2016) and £102,400 (20% discount on median house price 2016). 5.21 Analysis of the potential need for Starter Homes considers two types of household: existing households who meet the criteria for Starter Homes and newly-forming households who would consider owner occupation which could be achieved through Starter Homes.

Family housing 5.22 The 2017 Household Survey found that families (that is couples and lone parents) with dependent children (aged under 18) account for just over one-quarter (32.1%) of

21 National Planning Policy Framework, paragraph 002, Reference ID 55-002-20150318

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households across Tameside. A further 13.9% are couples and lone parents with adult children (aged 18 or over) living with them. The analysis assumes therefore a total of around 46.0% of households who are families (including those with adult children still living at home). 5.23 The current dwelling profile and market aspirations of families, as identified in the Household Survey, are summarised in Table 5.9. This suggests a particular aspiration for houses with three, four or more bedrooms (80.9% of families). Of these, 41.5% would like to move to a property with 4 or more bedrooms. In comparison, 41.5% expect to move to a 3-bedroom property and 15.5% to a 4 or more bedroom property. Relatively few families have an aspiration or expectation of moving to a flat or bungalow.

Table 5.9 Property type preferences – Families Dwelling type Current dwelling Like Expect Detached house /cottage 1-2 Beds 0.6 1.1 1.8 Detached house /cottage 3 Beds 3.7 14.5 3.4 Detached house /cottage 4 or more Beds 9.2 34.4 12.5 Semi-detached house /cottage 1-2 Beds 6.5 2.2 8.1 Semi-detached house /cottage with 3 Beds 29.3 24.9 30.3 Semi-detached house /cottage 4 or more Beds 6.2 7.1 3.0 Terraced house /cottage 1-2 Beds 18.1 2.2 10.0 Terraced house /cottage 3 Beds 16.7 2.8 7.8 Terraced house /cottage 4 or more Beds 2.1 - - Bungalow 1-2 Beds 1.1 2.5 7.9 Bungalow 3 Beds 0.6 2.9 0.9 Bungalow 4 or more Beds 0.1 - - Flat /Apartment 1 Bed 0.9 - 1.9 Flat /Apartment 2 Beds 3.7 3.2 10.0 Flat /Apartment 3 or more Beds 0.7 - - Other 1 bed 0.0 - 1.1 Other 2 beds 0.1 1.2 1.3 Other 3 or more Beds 0.5 0.9 - Bedsit / Studio 0.0 - - Total 100.0 100 100 Base (Valid responses) 47,277 8,099 4,225 SUMMARY Houses 1/2 Beds 25.2 8.0 19.9 Houses 3 Beds 49.60 39.4 41.5 Houses 4 or more Beds 17.5 41.5 15.5 Bungalow 1.7 5.4 8.8 Flat 5.3 3.2 11.9 Other 0.6 2. 2.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (Valid responses) 47,277 8,099 4,225

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Source: 2017 Household Survey

5.24 In terms of housing need (refer back to Table 5.4), compared with the overall proportion of households in need of 9.1%, 60.8% of all families are in housing need. Overall, 44.9% of families with children under 18 are in housing need and 15.9% of families with adult children living at home are in housing need. The proportion of households in need is highest amongst lone parents with 3 or more children under 18 (35.0%) and couples with three or more children under 18 (32.2%).

Armed forces accommodation 5.25 The 2011 Census identified that 522 residents in Tameside Metropolitan Borough are employed in the Armed Forces. Of these, 66.7% live in owner occupation and 33.3% live in a property rented from a Housing Association. 5.26 The Household Survey 2017 found that the highest proportion of armed forces employees (including Reserved and Special Forces) lived in Longdendale (3.1% of responding households), followed by Denton West (1.5%). The majority of armed forces employees were planning to leave the service in 2021 (62.0%). 5.27 The University of Salford’s 2017 report on Meeting the Housing Needs of the Armed Forces Community in Tameside22 references a NHS estimate that there are 18,281 veterans in the wider area of Tameside and Glossop (before taking into account spouses and immediate family members of those who have served). This represents almost 8% of the entire population of the Tameside and Glossop area. The report acknowledges that many ex-armed forces personnel face difficulties after returning to civilian life, and housing is identified as a key area where the armed forces community requires support. However, the study found that housing associations do not always identify members of the armed forces community at the application stage of seeking accommodation, either because providers do not ask or because individuals may not be aware of their rights or may be reluctant to ask for help. The report sets out a range of recommendations including further exploring Supported Living networks as a means of enabling the Armed Forces community to support each other whilst living among the wider community.

Older persons housing 5.28 A major strategic challenge for the Council is to ensure a range of appropriate housing provision, adaptation and support for the District’s older population. The number of people across Tameside aged 65 or over is projected to increase from 38,400 in 2015 to 56,200 by 2035 (46.4% increase)23.

22 University of Salford (Sustainable Housing and Urban Studies Unit), Meeting the Housing Needs of the Armed Forces Community in Tameside, Final Report June 2017 (Dr Mark Wilding) 23 ONS 2014-based Subnational population projections

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5.29 The Household Survey found that the majority of older people (61.3%) want to stay in their own homes with help and support when needed (Table 5.10) and sheltered accommodation would be considered by just over 20% of respondents. Buying on the open market was considered by 16.8% and extra care housing by around 14%. 7.6% of older households would consider co-housing. .8 Table 5.10 Older persons’ housing options Housing option % would consider Continue to live in current home with support when needed 61.3 Buying a property on the open market 16.8 Rent a property from a private landlord 7.4 Rent from HA 21.6 Sheltered accommodation - To Rent 22.7 Sheltered accommodation - To Buy 9.2 Sheltered accommodation - Part Rent/Buy 4.9 Extra care housing - To Rent 13.9 Extra care housing - To Buy 6.2 Extra care housing - Part Rent/Buy 3.7 Residential care home 4.6 Co-housing 7.6 Go to live with children or other relatives/friends 4.9 Base (total households responding) 41,827 Source: 2016 Household Survey (Question 27)

5.30 This evidence suggests a need to continue to diversify the range of older persons’ housing provision. Additionally, providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the potential to free-up larger family accommodation. 5.31 Of all older person households, 10.8% would like to move in the next 5 years; 6.2% would like to move but are unable to; and 83.0% do not want to move. Of households with a HRP aged 65 and over who were unable to move, 57.6% stated they could not afford to, 26.4% stated a lack of suitable properties in the area wanted and 24.8% stated a lack of suitable properties of the type wanted (Table 5.11).

Table 5.11 Reasons why households with a HRP aged 65 and over are unable to move Cannot afford to (other properties too expensive) 57.6 Lack of suitable property: in the area wanted 26.4 Lack of suitable property: of type wanted 24.8 Need to give support 2.0 Lack of suitable property: with adaptations needed 6.6 Need to receive support 5.9 Negative Equity 5.1 Employment (work locally) 2.0

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Brexit uncertainty 3.0 Due to former rent arrears 5.6 Other reasons 24.0 Base (households responding) 1,321 Source: 2017 Household Survey 5.32 Of households with a HRP aged 65 and over and planning to move, the Household Survey found that the main reasons for moving were needed housing suitable for older / disabled person (15.8%), need to move to a better neighbourhood / pleasant area (14.7%) and smaller property as current property is too difficult to manage (13.5%). 5.33 Table 5.12 considers the future housing choices being considered by households with a HRP aged 65+ with reference to the number of bedrooms in their current property and the number of bedrooms expected in their next home (if planning to move in the next five years). This shows that 40.2% of households are planning to downsize (i.e. move to a property with fewer bedrooms).

Table 5.12 Future housing expectations (upsizing/downsizing) Housing choice Expectation (%) Downsizing (moving to a smaller property) 40.2 Staying same 40.9 Moving to larger property 18.9 Total 100.0 Base 1,742 Source: 2017 Household Survey

Current and future need 5.34 The Housing Learning and Improvement Network (LIN) Strategic Housing for Older People ‘SHOP@’ tool24 helps to estimate current and future needs for specialist older person’s housing 2014-203025. Data specifically relates to people aged 75 and over. 5.35 The data for need is calculated by applying the prevalence rates to the 2014 population aged 75+ derived from May 2014 ONS sub-national population projections. The data on supply is the current number of specialist housing and registered care beds from the Elderly Accommodation Counsel national housing database 2014 which includes the following categories: Sheltered Housing, Enhanced Sheltered Housing, Extra Care, Residential Care and Nursing Care. Detailed definitions are presented below: Sheltered Housing: Schemes / properties are included where some form of scheme manager (warden) service is provided on site on a regular basis but where no registered personal care is provided. A regularly visiting scheme manager service may qualify as long as s/he is available to all residents when on site. An on-call-only service

24http://www.housinglin.org.uk/Topics/browse/HousingExtraCare/ExtraCareStrategy/SHOP/ 25 Note this particular dataset covers the period 2014 to 2030

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does not qualify a scheme to be included in sheltered stats. In most cases schemes will also include traditional shared facilities - a residents' lounge and possibly laundry and garden. Enhanced Sheltered Housing: Schemes / properties are included where service provision is higher than for sheltered housing but below extra care level. Typically there may be 24/7 staffing cover, at least one daily meal will be provided and there may be additional shared facilities. Extra Care Housing: Schemes / properties are included where care (registered personal care) is available on site 24/7. Residential Care: Where a care homes is registered with Care Quality Commission to provide residential (personal) care only, all beds are allocated to residential care. Nursing Care: Where a care homes is registered with Care Quality Commission to provide nursing care all beds are allocated to nursing care, although in practice not all residents might be in need of or receiving nursing care. 5.36 The SHOP data for Tameside is presented in Table 5.13. This calculates housing demand per 1,000 residents aged 75 and over based on the population of 75+ residents in 2014 and 2035. The table also shows the 2014 profile of specialist older persons provision and highlights that against the 2014 prevalence rates there are shortfalls in provision across all types. 5.37 Over the period 2014 to 2035, there is expected to be a 157% increase in the requirement for older persons’ specialist provision. However, when the current (2014) supply of accommodation is compared with change in demand to 2035, data would suggest a need to increase the current level of provision for older people, particularly the provision of sheltered housing and Extra Care 24/7 support. The data also suggests there is no supply in Tameside of enhanced sheltered housing but a demand for 584.

Table 5.13 Older persons’ dwelling requirements 2014 to 2035

Housing Change 2014 demand per 2014 2035 (supply) to 2035 % change Type of provision 1,000 75+ Current supply Demand Demand (demand) 2014-2035 Sheltered housing 125 1,311 2,025 3,650 2,339 178% Enhanced 20 0 324 584 584 Sheltered housing Extra Care 24/7 25 222 405 730 508 229% support Residential care 65 1,652 1,782 3,212 1,560 94% Total 235 3,185 4,536 8,176 4,991 157% Source: HousingLIN Note this dataset covers the period 2014 to 2035

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Table 5.14 Future market split of older persons’ accommodation by relative deprivation/affluence of an area Most Deprived Deprived Affluent Most Affluent Type of provision Rented Leasehold Rented Leasehold Rented Leasehold Rented Leasehold Sheltered 75 25 50 50 33 67 20 80 Enhanced 80 20 67 33 50 50 20 80 Sheltered Extra care 75 25 50 50 33 67 20 80

Source: Housing LIN http://www.housinglin.org.uk/Topics/browse/HousingExtraCare/ExtraCareStrategy/SHOP/SHOPAT/Dashboard/F utureMarketSplit/

Assistance in the home 5.38 The range of assistance required from all households including older person households is explored in Table 5.15. Particularly noted across both age groups and in particular by older people (65+ years) is help with practical tasks, help with repair and maintenance in the home, help with personal care and wanting company / friendship. 5.39 Table 5.16 considers the extent to which household require assistance now or within the next 5 years. The majority of respondents needed assistance now.

Table 5.15 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by age group Age group (% of households) Under Assistance required 65 years 65+ years Total Help with repair and maintenance of home 28.2 17.3 20.0 Help with gardening 22.9 7.5 11.3 Help with cleaning home 11.9 6.4 7.8 Help with other practical tasks 45.0 26.1 30.7 Help with personal care 30.4 13.3 1.8 Want company / friendship 18.8 11.7 13.4 Base (All households) 25,799 79,041 104,840 Source: 2017 Household Survey

Table 5.16 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by when required Percentage Assistance required Now within next 5 years Total Help with repair and maintenance of home 43.6 12.3 20.0 Help with gardening 21.6 7.9 11.3 Help with cleaning home 17.6 4.6 7.8 Help with other practical tasks 77.2 15.5 30.7 Help with personal care 36.9 11.2 17.5 Want company / friendship 30.9 7.7 13.4

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Base (all households) 25,799 79,041 104,840 Source: 2017 Household Survey

Adaptations and improvements 5.40 The 2017 Household Survey asked whether adaptations were required by households (Table 5.17). The most frequently mentioned were better heating, double glazing, more insulation and bathroom adaptations. Bathroom adaptations, better heating, internal/external handrails and stair lift were the most frequently mentioned adaptation required by older people. Double glazing, better heating and more insulation were particularly mentioned by households headed by someone aged under 65. 5.41 Resources for aids and adaptations remain tight, particularly for households in the private sector. Alternative sources of funding, such as equity loans, should be considered to finance remedial measures required by older person households.

Table 5.17 Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years by age group Age group (% of households) Under Adaptation required 65 years 65+ years Total % Better Heating 14.2 13.2 13.9 More Insulation 13.0 9.3 12.1 Double Glazing 14.8 10.3 13.7 Adaptations to kitchen 7.8 7.0 7.6 Adaptations to bathroom 9.2 16.8 11.1 Internal handrails 5.9 12.3 7.5 External handrails 4.8 11.1 6.3 Downstairs WC 6.3 10.1 7.2 Stair lift 5.5 10.6 6.7 To access 4.4 6.3 4.9 Wheelchair 4.0 5.2 4.3 Lever Door 3.7 3.4 3.6 Carer 2.6 2.6 2.6 Community Alarm 3.6 8.9 4.9 Security Alarm 11.3 9.6 10.9 Property Size 10.8 3.1 8.9 Sound proofing 7.6 6.1 7.3 Ventilation 6.5 5.7 6.3 Base (all households) 79,041 25,799 104,840

Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Illness/disability 5.42 Across Tameside, the 2017 Household Survey identified a total of 33,281 households (31.7%) which contained at least one person with an illness/disability. 5.43 Table 5.18 summarises the proportion of households containing someone with a particular illness/disability by ward. Hyde Newton contains the highest proportion of households containing someone with an illness/disability, at 38.3% of total households. 5.44 The most frequently mentioned illnesses/disabilities across the Borough were physical / mobility impairment (experienced by at least one person in 9.0% of households), long standing illness or health condition (7.1%) and ‘other’ illness / disability (5.3%).

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Table 5.18 Illness/disability by Ward % of households containing someone with an illness/disability by Ward Illness/disability Ashton Ashton St Ashton Denton Denton Denton Droylsden Droylsden Dukinfield Audenshaw Dukinfield Hurst Michael's Waterloo North East South West East West Stalybridge Physical / mobility impairment 10.8 4.0 7.8 7.5 12.5 13.9 10.5 6.2 8.3 12.3 11.8 Learning disability / difficulty 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 2.3 0.0 1.0 Mental health problem 4.6 6.1 3.6 1.9 2.7 4.9 2.3 4.8 1.1 4.9 3.0 Visual impairment 2.7 2.9 2.8 1.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.1 2.8 3.8 3.9 Hearing impairment 2.9 5.5 3.7 7.1 2.7 3.9 4.4 1.3 3.6 1.3 3.9 Long standing illness or health 7.8 9.2 7.6 6.1 5.1 7.3 6.8 9.7 7.7 6.5 3.1 condition Older Age-related illness or 0.5 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 disability Other 6.4 2.2 4.4 7.4 7.7 4.5 7.1 5.3 6.4 4.8 8.2 Base (all households) 5093 5376 5050 5486 5275 5380 5178 5664 5174 5801 5258 Hyde Hyde Hyde Stalybridge Stalybridge Tameside Longdendale Mossley St Peter's Godley Newton Werneth North South Total Physical / mobility impairment 9.1 9.3 5.8 10.3 5.9 12.0 7.8 2.8 9.0 Learning disability / difficulty 1.8 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.2 0.4 0.7 Mental health problem 3.7 11.5 1.3 3.4 1.4 6.3 0.5 2.4 3.8 Visual impairment 1.8 0.6 3.1 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 Hearing impairment 1.0 3.4 2.1 5.7 4.3 3.1 2.0 3.4 3.4 Long standing illness or health 7.2 9.4 8.0 7.7 6.5 7.1 3.5 7.6 7.1 condition Older Age-related illness or 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 disability Other 5.4 3.7 4.7 6.3 3.7 5.6 4.4 3.2 5.3 Base (all households) 6160 6339 5022 5305 5367 7158 5837 4917 104840 Note: respondents could state one or more illness/disability. Source: 2017 Household Survey.

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5.45 The 2017 Household Survey found that overall 5.2% of all properties across the borough had been adapted or purpose built for a person with a long-term illness, health problem or disability. 7.2% of households said they required care or support to enable them to stay in their current home. 53.4% of households stated that there was sufficient space for a carer to stay overnight if this was needed. Table 5.19 summarises this data by ward.

Table 5.19 Adaptations, support and sufficient space for a carer Current home has been You or other members of adapted or purpose-built for your household require Sufficient space in your a person with a long-term care or support to enable home for a carer to stay illness, health problem or you/them to stay in this overnight, if this was ward disability (%) home (%) needed, is available (%) Ashton Hurst 3.9 8.9 58.2 Ashton St Michael's 4.4 5.1 44.3 Ashton Waterloo 5.7 9.1 45.9 Audenshaw 6.5 8.5 55.2 Denton North East 5.0 10.6 46.9 Denton South 9.2 5.2 48.0 Denton West 3.6 6.2 60.2 Droylsden East 5.8 6.4 52.8 Droylsden West 6.9 11.4 51.9 Dukinfield 7.3 10.7 48.5 Dukinfield Stalybridge 8.0 6.3 57.8 Hyde Godley 2.0 4.6 59.8 Hyde Newton 4.4 6.2 43.2 Hyde Werneth 3.8 5.8 55.0 Longdendale 3.9 8.3 66.2 Mossley 5.8 6.3 53.3 St Peters 4.4 6.0 51.6 Stalybridge North 6.3 8.5 57.3 Stalybridge South 2.7 2.5 60.5 Total 5.2 7.2 53.4 Base 5,350 7,337 53,227 Source: 2017 Household Survey

Households with specific needs 5.46 Table 5.20 summarises the types of lettings by scheme type over the three-year period 2013/14 to 2015/16. Lettings in housing for older people accounted for 54.8% of supported letting, 40.8% were other supported lets and 4.4% were lettings in Direct Access Housing.

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Table 5.20 Type of supported lettings made across the Social Rented sector in Tameside Metropolitan Borough 2013/14 to 2015/16 Number Average Annual Scheme Type (over 3 years) Number Direct Access Housing 75 25 Housing for older people 928 309 Other supported housing 691 230 Total 1694 565 Source: Supported CORE Lettings data

Homeless and previously homeless households 5.47 Homelessness statistics for 2015/16 indicate that a total of 2,298 decisions were made on households declaring themselves as homeless across Tameside (Table 5.21). Of these households, 607 were classified as homeless and in priority need. Over the seven years 2009/10 to 2015/16, an annual average of 328 decisions has been made across Tameside and an annual average of 87 households have been declared as homeless and in priority need.

Table 5.21 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2009/10 to 2015/16 Year Decisions made Accepted as homeless 2009/10 73 47 2010/11 282 70 2011/12 542 92 2012/13 429 107 2013/14 308 65 2014/15 213 64 2015/16 451 162 Total 2,298 607 Annual Average 328 87 Source: DCLG P1E Homelessness Returns, Table 784

5.48 The Household Survey identified 883 households who had been previously homeless or living in temporary accommodation and had moved to their present accommodation in the past five years. 5.49 Table 5.22 presents a range of information relating to the characteristics of previously homeless households and the dwelling choices that they have made. 72.1% of households previously homeless have moved to the private rented sector and 23.3% into affordable housing. They have moved into a range of dwelling sizes, with 34.6% moving to one bedroom dwellings, 56.7% moving into two bedroom dwellings and 8.7% into dwellings with three or more bedrooms. The incomes of previously homeless households are generally low with around 79.0% receiving less than £250

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each week and 20.8% receiving between £250 and £500 each week. 15.1% are singles under 65, 20.8% are lone parents and 5.9% are couples (no children).

Table 5.22 Characteristics of households previously homeless Household Type % Property Type % Single Adult (under 65) 15.1 House 62.4 Single Adult or Couple (65 or over) 3.8 Bungalow 0.0 Couple only (both under 65) 4.6 Flat/maisonette 37.6 Couple with child(ren) 36.4 Lone parent with 1 or 2 child(ren) under 18 10.9 Lone parent with 3 or more child(ren) under 18 0.0 Total 100.0 Lone parent with children aged 18+ 9.9 Other types of household 19.3 Total 100.0 Current tenure % Origin % Owner Occupied 4.6 Within Tameside 9.7 Private Rented 72.1 From outside Tameside 90.3 Social/Affordable Rented 23.3 Total 100.0 Total 100.0 Current income (Gross weekly) % Property size % Under £250 79.0 1 Bed/bedsit 34.6 £250 to <£500 20.8 2 Beds 56.7 £500+ 0.2 3 or more Beds 8.7 Total 100.0 Total 100.0 Base: 883 households previously homeless Source: 2017 Household Survey

Black and Minority Ethnic households (BME) 5.50 The 2017 Household Survey indicates that 91.5% of Household Reference People describe themselves as ‘White British’ and 8.5% describe themselves as having other ethnicities. Of these, 1.5% are White Central/Eastern European, 0.5% White Irish and 1.4% are other White groups. A further 3.4% are Asian/Asian British, 0.8% are Black/African/Caribbean/Black British, 0.4% have a mixed ethnicity and 0.4 are other ethnicities. 5.51 The most ethnically diverse ward in Tameside is St Peters, where 22.4% of Household Reference People have an ethnicity other than White British. 5.52 Information on BAME households based on the 2017 Household Survey includes:  47.6% are owner occupiers, 27.3% rent privately and 25.0% live in affordable housing (social rented or intermediate tenures) (compared with 63.4%, 14.5% and 22.2% respectively across all households);  Incomes tended to be lower than the Tameside average. 47.3% had a gross income of less than £300 each week (compared with 33.8% of all households), 24.7%

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received between £300 and £500 each week (29.2 all households) and 28.0% received between more than £500 each week (37.1% all households);  23.3% BAME households were in some form of housing need (compared with 9.1% of all households), with key needs factors being overcrowding (48.1% of households in need) and couples/people with children sharing facilities (38.5%); 5.53 The 2011 Census identified no one with Gypsy and Traveller ethnicity. The CLG Traveller Caravan Count (July 2017) identified a total of 3 caravans in Tameside. All 3 were private caravans with temporary planning permission.

People wishing to build their own homes 5.54 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) set out that the Government wants to enable more people to build their own homes and wants to make this form of housing a mainstream housing option. The Self-Build and Custom Housebuilding Act 2015 and subsequent Self-Build and Custom Housebuilding (Register) Regulations 2016 require authorities to maintain a register of those who have expressed an interest in buying serviced plots. Local authorities are under a duty to have regard to these registers in carrying out their planning function. 5.55 The 2016 Household Survey identified 83 households who would be interested in self- build. The household survey identified that households considering self-build:-  were all owner occupier households;  were couples under 65;  were on incomes of over £950 per week;  Mainly aspired towards two bedrooms.

Summary 5.56 This chapter and the associated appendices provide a clear definition of housing need and affordable housing required, along with a step-by-step explanation of the housing needs assessment model. 5.57 Analysis has identified a total of 9,589 households in housing need, representing 9.1% of all households across Tameside. Assessment reveals that there is a net annual imbalance of 421 affordable dwellings across the borough. 5.58 Overall, analysis would suggest a tenure split of 63.9% intermediate tenure and 36.1% social/affordable rented. 5.59 In terms of the size of affordable dwellings required, once the likely annual affordable supply is taken into account, the analysis indicates the provision of 35% smaller one and two bedroom general needs, 53.4% three or more bedroom general needs and 11.6% older person dwellings. 5.60 Around 8.3% of all households in need are older people (65+ years). Whilst this proportion may seem low it is reflective of the high levels of owner occupation

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amongst older people and therefore the ability under the assessment model to meet their own housing needs in situ or through sale/release of equity. 5.61 It is also evident that the vast majority of older people wish to stay within their existing homes. For most, this is an informed and appropriate choice where current and future housing needs can be addressed through in situ solutions (including adaptations). However, there is some notable concern regarding a lack of choice within the market especially for owner-occupiers in rural areas who are unable to find suitable downsizing properties and options. 5.62 Whilst this concern falls outside of the strict definition of housing need, the impact and influence of this potential lack of fluidity within the market has repercussions upon the overall operation of the housing market and the ability of households to trade up into properties released by older people.

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6. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues 6.1 This document has been prepared to equip the Council and their partners with robust, defensible and transparent information to help inform strategic decision-making and the formulation of appropriate housing and planning policies. The work also takes account of the National Planning Policy Framework (March 2012) and Planning Practice Guidance. 6.2 The HNA will help the Council plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community. Specifically, the HNA identifies the size, type and tenure of market housing required by considering current market demand relative to supply; and also identifies a continued affordable housing imbalance across Tameside. 6.3 This concluding chapter summarises key messages from the research findings, structured around a commentary on the current and future housing markets; the interactions of Tameside with other areas; and relates findings to key local strategic issues.

The Housing Market Area 6.4 The GM SHMA (2016) recognises the link between Tameside and Greater Manchester in relation to commuting flows and migration. The SHMA acknowledges that the northern districts of Bolton, Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside all individually have high levels of self-containment, close to or exceeding 70%. 6.5 This 2017 HNA concurs with these findings in that the self-containment level for Tameside borough for migration was found to be around 75.0%. 6.6 The 2017 HNA also identified relationships with adjoining areas, including Manchester (especially with regard to commuting flows), Stockport and Oldham.

The current housing market 6.7 This Local HNA provides up to date information on the housing stock in the borough and how the stock profile varies by market area is presented in data tabulations accompanying this report. 6.8 The analysis assumes a total of 104,840 households and 101,330 dwellings in total in the borough, with 1,851 vacant homes and an implied vacancy rate of 1.8%. Overall, the 2017 Household Survey identifies that:  81.5% of properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/maisonettes, 5.9% are bungalows and 0.7% are other property types (e.g. caravans);  7.2% have one bedroom/studio, 32.0% have two bedrooms, 46.4% have three bedrooms and 14.3% have four or more bedrooms;  23.0% of properties were built before 1919, a further 20.1% were built between 1919 and 1944, 17.1% between 1945 and 1964, 22.4% between 1965 and 1982, 9.6% between 1983 and 1999 and 7.9% have been built since 1999 ; and

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 63.4% of properties are owner-occupied, 14.2% are affordable (social/affordable rented or shared ownership) and 22.4% are private rented (or tied accommodation).

Future housing market 6.9 The population of Tameside is estimated to be 222,900 in 2017 and this is projected to increase by 7.4% to 239,300 by 203926. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 30.2% (19,000 additional people), with the proportion of the total population aged 65 and over increasing from 17.8% of the population in 2017 to 24.5% of the population in 2039. The proportion of the total population aged 80 years and over is projected to increase from 4.3% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2039.

Housing need and demand Delivering new housing 6.10 Households intending to move in the open market were asked in the Household Survey what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to. This could then be compared with the current stock profile to identify any mismatches between availability and aspirations/expectation. The findings are set out in Table 4.4 and a summary is provided in Table 4.5. Of households moving, most would like to move to a house (83.3%), 9.7% would like to move to a bungalow, 4.6% to a flat and 2.4% to other property types. This compares with 90.4% who expect to move to a house, 0.8% to a bungalow, 7.2% a flat an 1.7% to other property types. A high proportion would like to move to a detached house (40.9%) but only 21.5% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (44.4%) than would like to 30.4%). 6.11 Future development should focus on delivering to address identified mismatches, to reflect household aspirations and to take account of density and making the best use of land. 6.12 The scale of affordable requirements has been assessed by taking into account the annual need from existing and newly-forming households within each ward and comparing this with the supply of affordable (social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure dwellings). The overall gross need for affordable housing is 1,811 dwellings each year. However, when the likely annual affordable supply is taken into account, the overall net imbalance is 421 affordable dwellings each year. In terms of the size of affordable dwellings required, the analysis indicates a need for 35% smaller one and two-bedroom general needs, 53.4% three or more bedroom general needs and 11.6% older person dwellings. 6.13 A tenure split of 63.9% social/affordable rented and 36.1% intermediate tenure is suggested.

26 According to ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections

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6.14 In summary, key drivers in determining the tenure and type of future development include:  The need to continue development to satisfy household aspirations, in particular the development of houses;  Developing an increasing range of housing and support products for older people including market housing options;  Delivering additional affordable housing to help offset the identified net shortfalls; and diversifying the range of affordable options by developing intermediate tenure dwellings and products; and  The economic viability of delivering affordable housing on sites across Tameside.

Improving the quality of existing stock 6.15 Strategic challenges include reducing the level of vacant dwellings and improving the quality of existing dwellings through better energy efficiency and modernisation.

Vacant stock 6.16 There are an estimated 1,851 (1.8%)27 vacant properties across the borough, of which 1,043 (around 56%) are long-term vacant (empty for over six months). This compares with a vacancy rate of 2.6% across England. The vacancy rate in the borough is well below the ‘transactional vacancy level’ of 3%, which represents the proportion of stock which would normally be expected to be vacant to allow movement within the market.

Satisfaction and repair 6.17 Although the vast majority of households (87.2%) are satisfied with the condition of their dwellings, 4.1% of households were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Levels of dissatisfaction were highest amongst private and affordable renters, those in terraced houses and properties built pre-1919. 6.18 Improving the energy efficiency of dwellings and modernisation of stock is an important driver to improving the quality of existing stock and extends beyond those households expressing dissatisfaction. Given the need to reduce energy consumption, improve thermal comfort and future proof households from spikes in energy prices, retrofitting stock with improved insulation, heating systems and solar panels is likely to become a significant strategic issue.

27 2016 Tameside Council Tax data

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The ageing population and addressing the needs of vulnerable people 6.19 A key challenge for the Council is to ensure a greater diversity of support services are made available to older people wanting to stay in their own home and develop funding mechanisms to achieve this. Particularly noted is the need for help with practical tasks and repairs and maintenance. 6.20 Additionally, the range of housing options available to older people needs to be diversified, for instance through the development of open market housing marketed at older people and the development of sheltered housing, Extra Care accommodation and co-housing. 6.21 In terms of adaptations, of those aged 65 years or older 10.6% said that they will require a stairlift, 6.3% said that they would require adaptions to access their property and 5.2% said that they will need a wheelchair (either now or within the next five years). It is recommended that the Council considers an appropriate policy response to ensure that new developments for older people are designed to standards that provide appropriate levels of accessibility. 6.22 National data suggests that around 3.3% of households contain at least one wheelchair user28. 6.23 Currently, around 5% of dwellings across the Borough were either purpose-built or adapted for someone with a long-term illness, health problem or disability. This would be reasonable to suggest that at least 5% of dwellings should be built to support people with disabilities.

NPPF requirements 6.24 Paragraph 159 of the NPPF states that Local Planning Authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area and they should:  Prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where Housing Market Areas cross administrative boundaries. In the case of Tameside, the Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (October 2016)(which supports the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework) has been conducted which fulfils this requirement. SHMAs are required to identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period that: - Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change; - Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and

28 DCLG Guide to Disability Data March 2015

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- Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand. 6.25 The material in this Local HNA provides an evidence base to inform strategic decision making and has:  evidenced the scale of affordable housing need and the specific affordable requirements necessary to offset the imbalance between supply and need;  reviewed market demand and the range of dwellings required to satisfy household expectations and aspirations; and  reflected upon the needs of different groups of the population, in particular older people and those requiring specialist support requirements.

Final comments 6.26 Appropriate housing and planning policies have a fundamental role to play in the delivery of thriving, inclusive and sustainable areas. These policies need to be underpinned with high quality data. This study has provided a wealth of up-to-date social, economic, demographic and housing data for Tameside. 6.27 This research has reflected upon the housing market attributes of Tameside and interactions with other areas. The report signposts future strategic challenges which include the ongoing delivery of new market and affordable housing to address need and support economic growth; diversifying the range of affordable tenures available to local residents; improving the condition and energy efficiency of existing stock; and addressing the requirements of older people and vulnerable groups.

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Introduction to Technical Appendices

 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology  Technical Appendix B: Housing policy review  Technical Appendix C: Affordable housing need calculations  Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating  Technical Appendix E: National Planning Policy Framework and Planning Practice Guidance Checklist

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Technical Appendix A: Research methodology Overall approach A.1 A multi-method approach was adopted in order to prepare a robust and credible Housing Need Assessment for Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council:  A review of primary data obtained through a survey of 3,401 households across the Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council area. The 2017 Household Survey involved a total of 33,200 households contacted and 3,401 questionnaires returned, representing a 10.5% response rate overall. Although the response rate (10.5%) was lower than expected, the data are sufficiently robust to provide reliable data relating to the current and future housing market. The number of questionnaires returned was well in excess of the 1,500 specified in former Government guidance;  A consideration of the findings of a stakeholder consultation and interviews with estate and lettings agents;  A review of relevant secondary data including the 2011 Census, house price data, private rental data, Housing Association CORE lettings data, CLG Statistics and Housing Register information; and  Analysis of housing need and affordable housing requirements.

Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors A.2 Table A1 summarises total dwelling stock and the number of households contacted by survey area and sample errors. All accuracy levels are based on the Census 2011 as this was used as the core data when weighting the sub-area responses.

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Table A1 Total Household Survey responses COUNCIL TAX Ward OCCUPIED Achieved SAMPLING ERROR Mar-17 Interviews Result Ashton Hurst 5093 177 ± 7.24% Ashton St Michael's 5376 158 ± 7.68% Ashton Waterloo 5050 219 ± 6.48% Audenshaw 5486 169 ± 7.42% Denton North East 5275 177 ± 7.24% Denton South 5380 184 ± 7.10% Denton West 5178 218 ± 6.50% Droylsden East 5664 139 ± 8.21% Droylsden West 5174 155 ± 7.75% Dukinfield 5801 162 ± 7.59% Dukinfield Stalybridge 5258 206 ± 6.69% Hyde Godley 6160 161 ± 7.62% Hyde Newton 6339 173 ± 7.35% Hyde Werneth 5022 173 ± 7.32% Longdendale 5305 198 ± 6.83% Mossley 5367 227 ± 6.37% St Peter's 7158 119 ± 8.91% Stalybridge North 5837 194 ± 6.92% Stalybridge South 4917 191 ± 6.95% TAMESIDE BOROUGH 104,840 3,400 ± 1.65% Source: arc4

Weighting and grossing A.3 In order to proceed with data analysis, it is critical that survey data is weighted to take into account non-response bias and grossed up to reflect the total number of households. Weighting for each survey area was based on:  tenure (the proportion of affordable (social rented and intermediate tenure) and open market dwellings based on 2011 Census data;  age of household reference person based on the proportions of household reference people aged under 65 and 65 or over living in affordable and open market provision derived from the 2011 Census; and  2016 baseline households derived from Council Tax data (total dwellings minus vacant dwellings) A.4 Ultimately, the survey element of the assessment is sufficiently statistically robust to undertake detailed analysis and underpin core outputs of the study down to the survey areas presented in Table A1. Furthermore, the survey findings are enhanced and corroborated through analysis of secondary data and stakeholder consultation.

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Interviews with estate and letting agents A.5 Interviews were undertaken with eight estate and letting agents who operate in Tameside and the surrounding area. Their views were sought on the local housing market and related issues, and an analysis of the findings has been incorporated within Chapter 3 of the HNA Report.

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Technical Appendix B: Housing policy review

B.1 The purpose of this Appendix is to set out the national policy agenda of relevance to this housing needs assessment.

Introduction B.2 Under the Conservative and Liberal Democrat Coalition Government, the period 2010- 2015 saw a radical and sustained programme of reform of welfare, housing and planning policy. This was set within the context of national austerity and an economic policy of deficit reduction and public spending cuts following a period of recession and financial turbulence. The reforms championed localism, decentralisation and economic growth. B.3 This agenda continued to be pursued under the leadership of David Cameron following the election of a majority Conservative Government in May 2015. Further welfare reforms were accompanied by policies seeking to increase the rate of housebuilding and promoting home ownership as the tenure of choice. The Housing and Planning Act 2016 was intended to provide the legislative basis for a number of Conservative Manifesto commitments, including the flagship Starter Homes scheme. The Act also made provisions for other aspects of housing policy such as Pay to Stay, Right to Buy, high value sales and ending lifetime tenancies. B.4 The European Union Referendum of June 2016 resulted in significant changes in the political climate at a number of levels. Changes in Government leadership – with the appointment of Theresa May as Prime Minister – quickly led to discussions regarding the direction of housing and planning policy. Alongside significant delays (and in some cases abandonment) in the implementation of secondary legislation relating to aspects of the Housing and Planning Act 2016, conference speeches, ministerial statements and the Housing White Paper (February 2017) indicate a change in attitude towards housing policy. The 2016-17 Administration signalled a broader ‘multi-tenure’ housing strategy, including support for a range of tenures in addition to home ownership. The Neighbourhood Planning Act 2017 was passed with the intention of strengthening neighbourhood planning by ensuring and decision-makers take account of well- advanced neighbourhood development plans and giving these plans full legal weight at an earlier stage. B.5 The snap General Election of June 2017 created a new wave of political change and uncertainty, although the overall Government leadership remains under Conservative control and ministers are keen to keep housing as a key domestic policy priority.

2010-2015 (Coalition Government) B.6 Following the Coalition Agreement of May 2010, the Localism Act 2011 was passed with the express intention of devolving power from central government towards local people. The Localism Act set out a series of measures to seek a substantial and lasting shift of powers including:

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 new freedoms and flexibilities for local government, including directly elected mayors and empowering cities and other local areas;  new rights and powers for communities and individuals;  reform to make the planning system more democratic and more effective, including the abolition of regional spatial strategies (RSS), the introduction of the ‘Duty to Cooperate’, neighbourhood planning, Community ‘Right to Build’, reforming the community infrastructure levy and reforming the Local Plan process; and  reform to ensure that decisions about housing are taken locally. B.7 In terms of housing reform, the Localism Act enabled more decisions about housing to be made at the local level. Local authorities were granted greater freedom to set their own policies about who can qualify to go on the waiting list in their area. In addition, the Act allowed for more flexible tenure arrangements for people entering social housing, with social landlords able to grant tenancies for a fixed length of term rather than lifetime tenancies for all. In respect to homelessness, the Act allowed local authorities to meet their homelessness duty by providing private rented accommodation, rather than in temporary accommodation until long-term social housing becomes available. The Act also reformed social housing funding, allowing local councils to keep the rent they collect and use it locally to maintain their housing stock. B.8 The National Housing Strategy for England, Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England, was published in November 2011 under the Coalition Administration and it currently remains in place. The Strategy acknowledged some of the problems within the housing market and set out the policy response. The measures set out promote home ownership, including a new-build mortgage indemnity scheme (providing up to 95% loan-to-value mortgages guaranteed by Government) and a ‘FirstBuy’ 20% equity loan scheme for first-time buyers. B.9 The National Housing Strategy acknowledges the importance of social housing and the need for more affordable housing. However, the document reaffirms the programme of reforming this sector, including ‘changes to the way people access social housing, the types of tenancies that are provided and the way the homelessness duty is discharged’29. The private rented sector is considered to play ‘an essential role in the housing market, offering flexibility and choice to people and supporting economic growth and access to jobs’30. The document sets out an intention to support the growth of the private rented sector through innovation and investment, to meet continuing demand for rental properties. B.10 The National Housing Strategy set out the objectives of preventing homelessness, protecting the most vulnerable and providing for older people’s housing needs. However, it also confirmed a radical package of welfare reforms, including a reduction in Housing Benefit, changes to the Local Housing Allowance (Housing Benefit in the

29 Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England (Nov 2011), page 22 para.11 30 Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England (Nov 2011), page 33 Summary

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private sector) and the introduction of ‘Universal Credit’ to replace other means- tested working age benefits and tax credits. B.11 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012. It sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied. The NPPF formed a key part of the Coalition Government’s planning system reforms, simplifying national guidance (previously contained in multiple Planning Policy Statements and Planning Policy Guidance) and reducing the quantity of policy pages. Fundamentally, it must be taken into account in the preparation of local and neighbourhood plans and is a material consideration in planning decisions. The document states that ‘at the heart of the National Planning Policy Framework is a presumption in favour of sustainable development, which should be seen as a golden thread running through both plan-making and decision-taking.’31 B.12 The NPPF sets out 12 core planning principles to underpin both plan-making and decision-taking. It also establishes 13 aspects to achieving sustainable development, which include delivering a wide choice of high quality homes (#6) and promoting healthy communities (#8). The Framework also sets out the accepted definitions of affordable housing covering social rented housing, affordable rented housing and intermediate housing. B.13 National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) on a range of specific topics has been made available through an online system since March 201432. NPPG topics include Duty to Cooperate, Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments, Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment, Housing - Optional Technical Standards, Local Plans, Neighbourhood Planning, Rural Housing and Starter Homes.

2015-2016 (Conservative Government under David Cameron) B.14 Following the election of a majority Conservative Government in May 2015 under David Cameron, the Government’s Summer Budget 2015 was presented to Parliament by the then-Chancellor George Osborne. The Budget set out widespread reforms to the welfare system, including a four-year freeze on working-age benefits; a reduction in the household benefit cap; restrictions on Child Tax Credit; training requirements for those on Universal Credit aged 18 to 21; the removal of automatic entitlement to Housing Benefit for those on Universal Credit aged 18 to 21; and the removal of the Family Premium element of Housing Benefit for new claims from April 2016. Alongside these welfare cuts, it was announced that rents for social housing will be reduced by 1% per year for four years, while tenants on incomes of over £30,000, or £40,000 in London, will be required to pay market rate (or near market rate) rents. A review of ‘lifetime tenancies’ was confirmed, with a view to limiting their use to ensure the best use of social housing stock. Support for home ownership measures was reiterated with measures such as the extension of the Right to Buy to housing association tenants and the introduction of Help to Buy ISAs.

31 National Planning Policy Framework (November 2012), para. 14 32 http://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/

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B.15 Alongside the Summer 2015 Budget the Government published a ‘Productivity Plan’, Fixing the foundations: Creating a more prosperous nation (10th July 2015). This sets out a 15-point plan that the Government will put into action to boost the UK’s productivity growth, centred around two key pillars: encouraging long-term investment and promoting a dynamic economy. Of particular relevance to housing are the following points in the plan:  Planning freedoms and more houses to buy: In order to increase the rate of housebuilding and enable more people to own their own home, a number of actions are identified including a zonal system to give automatic planning permission on suitable brownfield sites; speeding up local plans and land release, stronger compulsory purchase powers and devolution of planning powers to the Mayors of London and Manchester, extending the Right to Buy to housing association tenants, delivering 200,000 Starter Homes and restricting tax relief to landlords.  Resurgent cities, a rebalanced economy and a thriving Northern Powerhouse: In order to rebalance the economy, which is skewed towards London and the South East, the Government is committed to building a Northern Powerhouse through £13 billion of investment in transport in the North of England during this Parliament, backing new science, technology and culture projects, devolving significant powers to an elected Mayor for Manchester, taking steps to enable the Midlands Engine for Growth to reach its full potential and working towards devolution deals with the Sheffield City Region, Liverpool City Region and Leeds, West Yorkshire and partner authorities. B.16 The Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 (November 2015) continued the policy themes of the Summer Budget. This included:  Plans to extend the ‘Local Housing Allowance’ to social landlords so that the Housing Benefit payed to tenants living in housing association properties will be capped at the LHA rate;  A new ‘Help to Buy Shared Ownership’ scheme, removing restrictions on who can buy shared ownership properties to anyone with a household income of less than £80,000 outside London and £90,000 in London;  ‘London Help to Buy’ – an equity loan scheme giving buyers 40% of the new home value (as opposed to 20% under the Help to Buy scheme);  200,000 ‘Starter Homes’ to be built over the following five years;  From 1st April 2016 an extra 3% in stamp duty to be levied on people purchasing additional properties such as buy-to-let properties or second homes;  Right to Buy extension to housing association tenants;  £400 million for housing associations and the private sector to build more than 8,000 new ‘specialist’ homes for older people and people with disabilities;  Consulting on reforms to the New Homes Bonus, with a preferred option for savings of at least £800 million which can be used for social care; and  A commitment to extra funding for targeted homelessness intervention.

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B.17 In December 2015, DCLG published a Consultation on proposed changes to national planning policy, which was open for consultation until February 2016. This consultation sought views on some specific changes to NPPF in terms of the following:  broadening the definition of affordable housing, to expand the range of low cost housing opportunities for those aspiring to own their new home;  increasing residential density around commuter hubs, to make more efficient use of land in suitable locations;  supporting sustainable new settlements, development on brownfield land and small sites, and delivery of housing allocated in plans; and  supporting the delivery of Starter Homes. B.18 The publication of a revised NPPF document has been subject to delay and is expected in early 2018. B.19 The 2015-16 Parliament saw several Acts passed with special relevance to housing and planning, implementing some of the policies set out in the preceding Budgets: B.20 The Cities and Local Government Devolution Act 2016 makes provision for the election of mayors for the areas of combined authorities established under Part 6 of the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Act 2009. It makes provision about local authority governance and functions; to confer power to establish, and to make provision about, sub-national transport bodies; and for connected purposes. This Act is central to the Government’s devolution plans for England, facilitating its vision of a ‘Northern Powerhouse’. B.21 The Welfare Reform and Work Act 2016 makes provisions relating to a range of welfare benefits and employment schemes, including the benefit cap, social security and Tax Credits, loans for mortgage interest, social housing rents and apprenticeships. Secondary legislation (Social Housing Rents Regulations, March 2016) sets out that the 1% cut to social housing rents will not apply to households with an income of £60,000 or more. B.22 The Housing and Planning Act 2016 sets out the legislative framework for the Starter Homes scheme and includes provisions relating to other important aspects of housing policy such as Pay to Stay, Right to Buy, high value sales and ending lifetime tenancies. B.23 The Budget 2016 (March 2016) continued the policy emphasis of promoting home ownership and facilitating first-time buyers to enter the market. A new ‘Lifetime ISA’ was announced, extending the principle of the Help to Buy ISA by incentivising saving for under-40s. Of relevance to the private rented sector were stamp duty increases for institutional investors and the withholding of capital gains reductions from companies investing in residential property. In seeking to deliver more homes for ownership, announcements were made of further planning reforms; releasing public land for development; and a £1.2 billion Starter Homes Fund for brownfield remediation. The anticipated ‘duty to prevent’ homelessness was not announced, but instead the Chancellor committed £115 million to preventing and reducing rough sleeping. B.24 A Technical consultation on Starter Homes regulations (March 2016) sought views on the framework to be established in the forthcoming regulations, including the restrictions that should be placed on Starter Homes, how age eligibility criteria should

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work, what threshold (size of site/development) should apply, what the percentage requirement should be, whether exemptions should apply and whether off-site payments should be acceptable. The consultation document set out that, in terms of the period within which Starter Homes should not be sold at full market value, the DCLG does not support a period of longer than 8 years. The paper proposed that the requirement to provide 20% of dwellings as Starter Homes should apply to sites of 10 dwellings or more (or 0.5 hectares). However, secondary legislation relating to Starter Homes has still not been published.

Post EU-Referendum (Theresa May Administration) B.25 The resignation of David Cameron following the European Union Referendum of June 2016 and subsequent appointment of Theresa May as Prime Minister led to a Cabinet reshuffle and a change in the policy climate within Government. The Autumn Statement (2016) was announced on 23rd November 2016 by Chancellor Philip Hammond. With an important focus on housing, provisions included:  £1.4 billion of extra cash to build 40,000 affordable homes, with a relaxation of restrictions on grant funding;  £2.3 billion Housing Infrastructure Fund to pave the way for up to 100,000 new homes to be built in areas of high demand;  £3.15 billion of the Affordable Homes Programme will be given to London to deliver 90,000 homes;  New regional pilots of the Right to Buy extension, allowing more than 3,000 tenants to buy their properties;  £1.7 billion to pilot ‘accelerated construction’ on public sector land;  Letting agents in the private rented sector to be banned from charging fees; and  Confirmation that compulsory Pay to Stay will not be implemented for councils. B.26 The Autumn Statement indicated a clear shift in housing policy, away from an exclusive focus on homeownership and towards boosting overall housing supply. A removal of grant-funding restrictions will allow housing associations to increase the delivery of sub-market rented housing, including affordable rented, shared ownership and rent-to-buy homes. B.27 Many of the ‘flagship’ housing policies of the Cameron Administration have their legislative basis in the provisions of the Housing and Planning Act 2016, but require further secondary legislation. Their implementation has been subject to ongoing delay and seem increasingly unlikely to be carried forward in practice as originally envisaged. These schemes include the Voluntary Right to Buy, the higher asset levy (intended to fund the building of new homes) and Pay to Stay (no longer compulsory for councils). B.28 The Housing White Paper, Fixing our broken housing market, was published in February 2017. The White Paper proposed a number of changes to reshape the approach to housebuilding and increase housing supply. These changes centred around the following four areas:

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 Planning for the right homes in the right places, by making it simpler for local authorities to put Local Plans in place and keep them up-to-date, ensuring sufficient land is allocated to meet housing needs and building upon neighbourhood planning to ensure communities have control over development in their area. The White Paper aims to make more land available for homes by maximising the contribution from brownfield and surplus public land, regenerating estates, releasing more small and medium sized sites, allowing rural communities to grow and making it easier to build new settlements. It reaffirms that the existing protections for the Green Belt remain unchanged and emphasises that authorities should only make exceptional amendments to Green Belt boundaries.  Building homes faster, by increasing certainty around housing numbers, aligning new infrastructure with housing, supporting developers to build more quickly and improving transparency. White Paper proposals include amending the NPPF to give local authorities the opportunity to have their housing land supply agreed on an annual basis and fixed for a one-year period, in order to create more certainty about when an adequate land supply exists. Authorities taking advantage of this would have to provide a 10% larger buffer on their five-year land supply. In addition, the White Paper suggests changing the NPPF to introduce a housing delivery test for local authorities. If delivery falls below specified thresholds extra land would be added onto the five-year land supply as well as further thresholds which would allow the presumption in favour of sustainable development to apply automatically.  Diversifying the market, by establishing a new Accelerated Construction Programme, supporting more Build to Rent developments, supporting housing associations to build more housing and boosting innovation. The White Paper proposes ensuring that the public sector plays its part by encouraging more building by councils and reforming the Homes and Communities Agency.  Helping people through Help to Buy, Right to Buy, the Shared Ownership and Affordable Homes Programme (SOAHP), the new Lifetime ISA, amendments to Starter Homes requirements and the announcement of a new statutory duty on planning to meet the needs of older and disabled people. B.29 In April 2017 some of the welfare reform provisions came into effect. This included Universal Credit claimants aged 18-21 no longer being able to claim benefits to support their housing costs unless they fit into at least one of 11 exemption categories. However, the Government also announced that they were cancelling controversial plans to cap benefit for Supported Housing tenants at the LHA rates. B.30 During the 2016-17 Parliament there were two Acts that gained Royal Assent that have particular relevance to emerging housing policy: B.31 The Neighbourhood Planning Act 2017 aims to speed up the delivery of new homes by strengthening neighbourhood planning, limiting the use of pre-commencement planning conditions, use of the planning register and the reform of compulsory purchase. During its passage through Parliament, the Bill was subject to various amendments, including changes to the Local Plan process to allow the Secretary of State to intervene and invite county councils to prepare or revise Local Plans where districts have not delivered and to allow the preparation of joint Local Plans where

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there are cross-boundary issues between two or more local authorities. This followed the recommendations of the Local Plans Expert Group (LPEG) report of March 201633. Some of the provisions of the Act require secondary legislation. A commencement order introduced in July 2017 under the Act requires post-examination neighbourhood plans to be treated as ‘material considerations’ in the determination of planning applications. B.32 The Homelessness Reduction Act 2017 requires councils to seek to prevent homelessness by starting work with households threatened with homelessness 56 days in advance of the date on which they are expected to become homeless (28 days earlier than under the previous legislation). It also requires the provision of advisory services to specified groups including (but not limited to) people leaving prison, young people leaving care, people leaving armed forces, people leaving hospital, people with a learning disability and people receiving mental health services in the community. The Act sets out that councils must assess and develop a personalised plan during the initial presentation to the service. In addition, they must help prevent an applicant from becoming homeless and take reasonable steps to help those who are eligible for assistance to secure accommodation for at least six months (during a 56-day period before a homeless decision can be made). The Act dissolves the local connections rules apart from a duty to provide care leavers with accommodation (under the Children Act 1989) to the age of 21. B.33 Following the snap General Election in June 2017, Theresa May’s Conservative Government formed an alliance with the DUP and the Cabinet was subject to another reshuffle. B.34 Planning for homes in the right places was published for consultation in September 2017, setting out the Government’s proposals for a standardised approach to assessing housing need. The overall rationale is that local authorities across England currently use inconsistent methods to assess housing requirements, leading to long debates over whether local plans include the correct housing targets. The proposed new standardised approach to assessing housing need therefore aims to have all local authorities use the same formula to calculate their housing requirement. The standardised approach would set a minimum figure but local authorities would be able to increase their target from this baseline, for example if they plan for employment growth and want to provide an uplift in housing provision to account for this. The consultation document proposes that the new housing need calculation method would be applied for assessing five-year housing land supply from 31st March 2018 onwards. B.35 The Autumn Budget 2017 included a range of provisions focussed on housing, although these were welcomed cautiously by some who would have preferred a greater emphasis on affordability. Provisions included:  A commitment to be providing 300,000 new homes per year by the mid-2020s;  A total of £15.3 billion of new capital funding, guarantee and loan-based funding;

33 Local Plans Expert Group, Local Plans: Report to the Communities Secretary and to the Minister of Housing and Planning, March 2016

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 £1 billion of extra borrowing capacity for councils in high demand areas to build new affordable homes;  £1.5 billion of changes to Universal Credit, including scrapping the seven-day waiting period at the beginning of a claim, making a full month’s advance available within five days of making a claim and allowing clamants on housing benefit to continue claining for two weeks;  £125 million increase over two years in Targeted Affordability Funding for LHA claimants in the private sector who are struggling to pay their rents;  Stamp duty scrapped on the first £300,000 for first-time buyers (on properties worth up to £500,000);  New Housing First pilots announced for West Midlands, Manchester and Liverpool;  Power to councils to charge 100% Council Tax premium on empty properties;  Five new garden towns; and  A review to look at land banking, including considering compulsory purchase powers.

Overview of housing policy themes B.36 The ‘Housing’ Policy Area of the Department for Communities and Local Government website states that: ‘The government is helping local councils and developers work with local communities to plan and build better places to live for everyone. This includes building affordable housing, improving the quality of rented housing, helping more people to buy a home, and providing housing support for vulnerable people.’34 B.37 Therefore the policy focus for Government can be broken down into four areas:  Building affordable housing;  Improving the quality of rented housing;  Helping more people to buy a home; and  Providing housing support for vulnerable people.

Building affordable housing B.38 In line with successive governments, the Conservative Government has continued to seek an increase in the rate of housebuilding. Ongoing reform of the planning system and removing complex regulations are intended to speed up delivery. The policy focus of the Cameron/Osborne era was increasingly towards home ownership, with a shift away from traditional social rented affordable housing to Starter Homes.

34 https://www.gov.uk/government/topics/housing

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B.39 A national Starter Homes exception site planning policy was launched in March 2015 through a written ministerial statement “to make it easier for developers to gain planning permission for a new generation of Starter Homes on under-used commercial and industrial land.”35 Sites where these homes were delivered were to be exempt from affordable housing requirements and the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL). B.40 In January 2016, the Prime Minister announced36 that the Government will step in and directly commission thousands of new affordable homes, seeking to fast-track housebuilding on publicly-owned land starting with five pilot sites including Northstowe (Cambridgeshire), Daedalus Waterfront (Hampshire), Old Oak Common (London), Connaught Barracks (Kent) and Lower Graylingwell (Chichester). B.41 A range of financial incentives to encourage new housing development have been implemented. Since early 2016, a £1.2 billion Starter Homes Fund has been announced37, designed to prepare brownfield sites for at least 30,000 homes, along with £6.3 million of Housing Zones funding38 for the 20 Housing Zones designated in March 2015. B.42 Other projects to help finance housing development include:  Get Britain Building programme,  Builders Finance Fund,  New Homes Bonus,  Build to Rent Fund, and the  Community Right to Build. B.43 To increase the supply of affordable rented homes the previous Government introduced the affordable rent model39, aimed at giving providers greater flexibility on rents and use of assets, whilst at the same time providing affordable housing for people in need. B.44 In addition to the affordable rent model, the Affordable Homes Guarantee scheme was launched in 2013 to support the building of new affordable homes. The scheme offers a guarantee to providers on debt that they raise to deliver additional new build affordable homes. The guarantee aims to help reduce the borrowing costs of providers thus enabling them to provide more homes.

Improving the quality of rented housing B.45 The Government have implemented a number of actions to improve the quality and quantity of properties for rent.

35 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/housing-and-planning 36 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-the-government-will-directly-build-affordable-homes 37 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-the-government-will-directly-build-affordable-homes 38 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/tens-of-thousands-of-homes-supported-by-housing-zone-funding 39 Allows Registered Providers to charge no more than 80% of local market rent for affordable housing.

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Social rented housing B.46 Between 2010-2015 a series of social housing reforms were introduced including:  Allowing local flexibility on waiting lists (allocations) and tenancy arrangements;  Helping social landlords stop tenant fraud and anti-social behaviour;  Changing the housing revenue account subsidy system to a locally-controlled system where local authorities are responsible for their housing services;  Funding local authorities to refurbish their housing stock;  Introduction of a national home swap scheme for social housing tenants;  Supporting tenants to play a bigger role in managing their accommodation through the tenant empowerment programme; and  Allowing local authorities to discharge their homelessness duty in the private rented sector. B.47 Alongside social housing reform sit reforms to the welfare system, which, with changes to benefit, eligibility and entitlement, impact significantly on housing supply and demand. From 7th November 2016, the overall benefit cap has been cut to £20,000 (or £23,000 in London), with implications for households living in both social and private rented sectors. B.48 The Autumn Statement 2015 set out a policy of capping housing benefit at Local Housing Allowance (LHA) levels. A range of concerns were expressed in relation to this proposal, particularly the impact the policy would have on supported housing. As a result, implementation has been delayed (originally planned for April 2016). In November 2016, Lord Freud (Work and Pensions Minister) announced that the cap for general needs accommodation will now be stalled until 2019. However, it will now apply to all tenants on Universal Credit, rather than just those who start new tenancies (the previous policy). B.49 Along with the plans to cap benefits at LHA levels, the 1% rent cut for social renters that was announced as part of the Summer 2015 Budget has significant implications for new affordable housing development. Due to financial uncertainties, many housing associations have put development plans on hold or scaled back their building programmes. B.50 In October 2015, English housing associations were reclassified by ONS as being part of the public sector, adding £60 billion of debt to the national balance sheet. The consequent economic and political implications led to the Government immediately pledging to bring in changes to reverse this decision. Deregulatory provisions were included within the Housing and Planning Act 2016; however, secondary legislation to implement these changes is yet to be issued and is expected early in 2017. Once these changes come into force it is anticipated that the Government will ask ONS to carry out a new review.

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Private rented housing B.51 The private rented sector has grown significantly in recent years and the Government sees it as playing a vital role in meeting housing needs and supporting economic growth. Measures to promote the private rented sector in recent years have included:  The Build to Rent Fund, providing equity finance for purpose-built private rented housing, alongside a £10 billion debt guarantee scheme to support the provision of these homes;  Proposals to ensure tenants receive proper protection from their landlords, including a new model tenancy agreement;  The Housing and Planning Act 2016 includes provisions to tackle ‘rogue landlords’ and create a central database of rogue landlords and property agents;  £4.1 million funding allocated to 23 local authority areas to tackle rogue landlords and £2.6 million to tackle ‘beds in sheds’; and  The Government has also set up a Private Rented Sector Taskforce to improve the quality and choice of rented housing available to tenants nationally. The Taskforce is made up of developers, investors, and housing management bodies.

Helping more people to buy a home B.52 The primacy of home ownership remains central to the Government’s housing policy approach. A number of measures promote homeownership40, including:  Starter Homes, a major element of the Housing and Planning Act 2016, available to first-time buyers aged under 40 years old. New-build homes will be offered for sale with a 20% discount to eligible households. The maximum cost of a home will be £250,000, or £450,000 inside London. However, the cost for the developer of providing the 20% discount may be met in lieu of delivering affordable housing on these sites. Draft regulations have been consulted upon but finalised legislation is still awaited.  Help to Buy, which includes several current products41: - Help to Buy ISA – since Autumn 2015 first time buyers can save money towards a new home deposit and the Government will boost the value of their savings by 25%. The minimum bonus is £400 and the maximum is £3,000, meaning individual savers need to save between £1,600 and £12,000 to be eligible. The bonus is available on homes worth up to £250,000, or £450,000 in London. - Help to Buy Equity Loan, where the Government lends up to 20% of the value of a new-build home so buyers only need a 5% cash deposit. - Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee, enabling lenders to offer more high-loan-to- value mortgages (80% to 95%).

40 https://www.ownyourhome.gov.uk/ 41 https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/

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- Shared Ownership, where purchasers can buy between 25% and 75% of their home and pay rent on the remaining share. From April 2016, Help to Buy Shared Ownership will lift the existing limits so that anyone with a household income of less than £80,000, or £90,000 in London can buy a shared ownership home, with only military personnel being given priority.  Discounted Sales, where councils and housing associations build new homes for sale and sell some at a 25-50% discount. There are a number of criteria, including some set locally by the relevant council and housing associations who run the scheme. Buyers must usually have a local connection to the area.  Right to Buy, where council tenants with at least five years’ tenancy might be eligible to buy their homes. Maximum discounts have been increased to £77,000, or £102,700 within London. In the case of secure council tenants living in their home when it was transferred to a housing association or similar there is also a ‘Preserved’ Right to Buy. A smaller discount has also been available under the Right to Acquire.  Voluntary Right to Buy is a pilot scheme amongst a small number of housing associations, trialling the Conservative Government’s flagship policy of extending the Right to Buy to housing associations. The Government plans to extend the Right to Buy beyond those in the pilot scheme but this will have significant funding implications.  Self-Build, where households find a plot of land and build or commission the construction of their own home, or work with a group in a Community Self Build project. Self-Build was promoted by the Coalition Government, with eleven authorities announced as Right to Build ‘vanguards’ in September 2014. The Self- Build and Custom Housebuilding Act 2015 and subsequent Self-Build and Custom Housebuilding (Register) Regulations 2016 require authorities to maintain a register of those who have expressed an interest in buying serviced plots. Local authorities are under a duty to have regard to these registers in carrying out their planning function.  The March 2016 Budget included plans for a new ‘Lifetime ISA’. Available to individuals aged under 40 in April 2017, the Government propose to add £1 for every £4 saved, to be used to buy homes worth up to £450,000 or for retirement funds. The proposals have been criticised for causing confusion between ISAs and pensions, but the scheme is intended to facilitate younger households saving, either towards a house purchase or their pension.

Housing for older and vulnerable people B.53 The Care Act 2014 came into effect in April 2015, replacing existing legislation and positioning housing as a key factor in the overhaul of the care system in England. The Act encourages providers to establish and develop services that help drive change, services which:  Promote people’s independence, connections and wellbeing;  Prevent or postpone the need for care and support;

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 Put people in control, ensuring that services respond to what people need;  Give carers a right to assessment for support; and  Promote the integration of health and social care. B.54 In addition, the Care Act introduces a cap on care costs, whereby people will be responsible for their own care costs up to a capital limit of £72,000. This may have an impact on the provision of supported housing. B.55 The NHS Five Year Forward Review (October 2014) recognises the role that housing can play in promoting wellbeing and in particular keeping older people independent and healthy. This provides evidence of the strong and growing links between housing, health and social care. B.56 Schemes to support older and vulnerable people in their housing needs include:  Disabled Facilities Grant, funding adaptations to properties to allow people to live in their homes for longer. This is now part of the Better Care Fund, which aims to better integrate health and adult social services. In 2016/17 there is £394 million funding available and in his Autumn Statement 2015 the Chancellor committed to making a further £500 million available by 2019/20;  Care and Support Specialised Housing Fund, to stimulate the market in specialist housing provision. The Government committed an additional £400 million to build 8,000 new specialist homes in the Autumn Statement 2015. A further allocation of £84.2 million announced in March 2016 is intended to provide a further 2,000 homes.  Supported housing has been exempted from the 1% rent cuts and potential exemption from the LHA cap is also being considered by Government, although wider welfare and funding reforms have already had a significant impact on the financial viability of both existing and proposed supported housing schemes;  FirstStop, an independent, impartial and free service offering advice and information to older people, their families and carers about housing and care options for later life;  Home Improvement Agencies, providing help and advice to older and disabled people, housing associations and charities; and  Handyperson services, delivering small home repairs and adaptations. B.57 Other projects of relevance to housing include the previous Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia. Launched in 2012, the Challenge sought to deliver major improvements in dementia care and research by 2015, including raising awareness of the housing, care and support needs of people living with dementia and their families. In February 2015, the Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia 2020 was published, highlighting progress and launching the next phase of the work. B.58 Also relating to older people’s housing is the World Health Organisation’s Age Friendly Cities programme, which in 2014 saw Manchester recognised as the UK’s first ‘Age Friendly’ city. Launched in February 2016, the NHS’s Healthy New Towns initiative seeks to deliver 76,000 new homes on 10 sites throughout the UK.

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B.59 In terms of safeguarding vulnerable adults, housing has a strong role to play alongside social services, health, the police and other agencies. The Care Act 2014 set out a new safeguarding power and places a duty on local authorities to respond to safeguarding concerns by making enquiries as necessary to decide on whether, and what, action is needed. B.60 From the April 1st 2013, Health and Wellbeing Boards (including Directors of Public Health) became statutory committees of local authorities. They are responsible for encouraging integrated working on health and wellbeing issues, including development of Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategies, and Joint Strategic Needs Assessments. B.61 In August 2012 the Government published its Homelessness Strategy, Making every contact count: A joint approach to preventing homelessness. The Strategy focuses on prevention and identifies ten local challenges that need to be addressed by local authorities. These include having a Homelessness Strategy setting out a proactive approach; not placing any young person aged 16 or 17 in Bed and Breakfast accommodation; and not placing any families in Bed and Breakfast accommodation, except in an emergency and for no longer than six weeks. B.62 In order to prevent and tackle homelessness and rough sleeping, a range of Government funding has been provided in recent years, including:  The Homelessness Prevention Fund, providing grants for local homelessness services;  The Homelessness Transition Fund, supporting ‘No Second Night Out’; and  The Crisis Private Rented Sector Access Development Programme to help single homeless people find privately rented accommodation. B.63 In December 2015 the DCLG announced ‘a radical new package of measures to help tackle homelessness and ensure that there is a strong safety net in place for the most vulnerable people in society’42. At the same time, the Communities and Local Government Committee announced a parliamentary inquiry into the causes of homelessness and the approaches taken by national and local government to prevent and tackle homelessness. B.64 The March 2016 Budget included a commitment of £100 million to build accommodation for rough sleepers; £10 million to fund new ways to prevent and reduce rough sleeping; and a £5 million increase to funding for the Rough Sleeping Social Impact Bond. However, Ministers the imposition on local authorities of a new legal ‘duty to prevent’ was not included in the March Budget as expected. B.65 The Conservative MP Bob Blackman tabled the Homelessness Reduction Bill in September 2016, proposing the introduction of new duties on councils. The result was the Homelessness Reduction Act 2017 which was passed in April 2017.

42 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/radical-package-of-measures-announced-to-tackle-homelessness

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National housing reviews B.66 Over recent years a number of housing reviews have been undertaken to assess the housing situation and recommend ways in which it can be addressed. B.67 In October 2014 the Lyons Housing Review was published. The review was commissioned by the Labour Party and identified that:  Insufficient land is being brought forward for new housing and that communities are not able to take responsibility for the homes required, or are using planning powers reactively; and  The capacity to build more housing has reduced significantly as it has become concentrated in the hands of a small number of volume house builders, whilst the number of smaller builders has reduced.  Overall the report recommended that the delivery of new homes be increased to 200,000 per annum by 2020. It also recommended that capital investment should be made in housing and that housing should be a priority for the new (post- election) Government. B.68 The Elphicke-House Report (January 2015) reviewed the role of local authorities in increasing housing supply. It recommended that local authorities become housing delivery enablers in their areas, to proactively assess and lead on facilitating new housing development in their areas. To enhance the role of authorities as delivery enablers, the report recommended increased community involvement; clearer housing market assessments; increased housebuilding by reduced bureaucracy and more flexible funding.

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Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations

Summary of contents

Stage 1: Current housing need (gross backlog) Step 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation Step 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households Step 1.3 Other groups Step 1.4 Total current housing need (gross) Stage 2: Future housing need (gross annual estimate) Step 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) Step 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to buy or rent in the market Step 2.3 Existing households falling in to need Step 2.4 Total newly-arising housing need (gross per year) Stage 3: Affordable housing supply Step 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need Step 3.2 Surplus stock Step 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable housing Step 3.4 Units to be taken out of management Step 3.5 Total affordable housing stock available Step 3.6 Total supply of social re-lets (net) Step 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels Step 3.8 Annual supply of affordable housing Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need Step 4.1 Total backlog need Step 4.2 Quota to reduce over 5 years (2) Step 4.3 Annual backlog reduction Step 4.4 Newly-arising need Step 4.5 Total annual affordable need Step 4.6 Annual social rented capacity Step 4.7 Net Annual Shortfall

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Introduction C.1 A working definition of housing need is ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. The 2017 Household Survey and secondary data provide a robust range of information to quantify housing need in Tameside and the extent to which additional affordable housing is required. C.2 Housing needs analysis and affordable housing modelling has been prepared in accordance with CLG guidance at Metropolitan Borough and ward level. In summary, the model reviews in a step-wise process: Stage 1: Current housing need (gross backlog) Stage 2: Future housing need Stage 3: Affordable housing supply Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need C.3 Table C1 summarises the different steps taken in assessing housing need and evidencing the extent to which there is a surplus or shortfall in affordable housing across Tameside. Please note that in Stage 1, Step 1.4 reports the total number of households in need and avoids double counting as in some cases households have more than one housing need. Table C2 summarises the data by ward.

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Table C1 CLG Needs Assessment Summary for Tameside Metropolitan Borough Step Stage and Step description Calculation Tameside MB Total Stage1: CURRENT NEED Homeless households and those in temporary 1.1 Annual requirement 284 accommodation 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households Current need 4,341 1.3 Other groups Current need 5,559 Total no. of households 1.4 Total current housing need (gross) 9,589 with one or more needs TOTAL cannot afford open market (buying or 1.4A 62.17% 5,977 renting) Stage 2: FUTURE NEED Blended rate of 2.1 New household formation (Gross per year) national and local 1,625 evidence % of new households requiring affordable Total cannot afford 2.2 57.48% housing overall Number of new households requiring 2.2 Number cannot afford 934 affordable housing 2.3 Existing households falling into need Annual requirement 232 TOTAL newly-arising housing need (gross 2.4 2.2 + 2.3 1,166 each year) Stage 3: AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY Affordable dwellings occupied by households 3.1 (based on 1.4) 2,754 in need Vacancy rate <2% so no 3.2 Surplus stock 0 surplus stock assumed 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable units Annual See para C.25 3.4 Units to be taken out of management None assumed 0 3.5 Total affordable housing stock available 3.1+3.2+3.3-3.4 2,754 3.6 Annual supply of social re-lets (net) Annual Supply 1,390 Annual supply of intermediate affordable 3.7 housing available for re-let or resale at sub- Annual Supply 0 market levels 3.8 Annual supply of affordable housing 3.6+3.7 1,390 Stage 4: ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL HOUSING NEED 4.1 Total backlog need 1.4A-3.5 3,223 4.2 Quota to reduce over plan period Annual reduction 20% 4.3 Annual backlog reduction Annual requirement 645 4.4 Newly-arising need 2.4 1,166 4.5 Total annual affordable need 4.3+4.4 1,811 4.6 Annual social rented capacity 3.8 1,390 4.7 NET ANNUAL SHORTFALL (4.5-4.6) NET 421 Source 2017 Household Survey; Social Rented lettings data Data presented in the table may be subject to rounding errors

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Table C2 CLG Needs Assessment Summary by Ward

Source 2017 Household Survey; Social Rented lettings data Data presented in the table may be subject to rounding errors

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Stage 1: Current need C.4 A working definition of housing need is ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’43. The SHMA Guidance suggests types of housing that should be considered unsuitable, as summarised in Table C3. Data at Ward level is presented in Table C4.

Table C3 Summary of current housing need across Tameside Category Factor Tameside Metropolitan Borough N1 Under notice, real threat of notice or 284 lease coming to an end Homeless households or N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of with insecure tenure housing benefit or in arrears due to 1,146 expense N3 Overcrowded according to the 4,343 'bedroom standard' model N4 Too difficult to maintain 1,037 N5 Couples, people with children and Mismatch of housing single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, 1,916 need and dwellings bathroom or WC with another household N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special 1,457 needs living in unsuitable accommodation N7 Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have 158 Dwelling amenities and resource to make fit condition N8 Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have 644 resource to make fit N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others Social needs 827 living in the vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move Total no. households in need (with one or more housing need) 9,589 Total Households 104,840 % households in need 9.1% Note: A household may have more than one housing need. Source: 2017 Household Survey

43 CLG, Estimating housing need, November 2010, Paragraph 1.4

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Table C4 Summary of current need by Ward

Note: A household may have more than one housing need. Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Step 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation C.5 CLG SHMA guidance suggests that information on homeless households and those in priority need who are currently housed in temporary accommodation should be considered in needs modelling. The scale of need from these types of household can be derived from several sources. C.6 Homelessness statistics for 2015/16 indicate that a total of 451 decisions were made on households declaring themselves as homeless across Tameside (Table C5). Of these households, 162 were classified as homeless and in priority need. Over the seven years 2009/10 to 2015/16, an annual average of 328 decisions has been made across Tameside and an annual average of 87 households have been declared as homeless and in priority need.

Table C5 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2009/10 to 2015/16 Year Decisions made Accepted as homeless 2009/10 73 47 2010/11 282 70 2011/12 542 92 2012/13 429 107 2013/14 308 65 2014/15 213 64 2015/16 451 162 Total 2,298 607 Annual Average 328 87 Source: DCLG P1E Homelessness Returns, Table 784

C.7 The household survey identified a total of 284 households who were either under threat of homelessness or were living in temporary accommodation across Tameside. This figure has been used in needs assessment modelling.

Step 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households C.8 The extent to which households are overcrowded is measured using the ‘bedroom standard’. This allocates a standard number of bedrooms to each household in accordance with its age/sex/marital status composition. A separate bedroom is allocated to each married couple, any other person aged 21 or over, each pair of adolescents aged 10-20 of the same sex and each pair of children under 10. Any unpaired person aged 10-20 is paired if possible with a child under 10 of the same sex, or, if that is not possible, is given a separate bedroom, as is any unpaired child under 10. This standard is then compared with the actual number of bedrooms (including bedsits) available for the sole use of the household. C.9 Analysis identifies 4,341 households who are currently living in overcrowded accommodation or are concealed households and are intending on moving in the next five years.

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Step 1.3 Other groups C.10 Table C3 identified 5,559 households who were in housing need for other reasons including the property is too expensive, difficult to maintain, household containing people with mobility impairment/special need, lacking amenities, disrepair and harassment. C.11 A total of 5,559 households across Tameside were identified to be experiencing one or more of these needs factors and intending to move in the next five years. This figure is taken as the five-year backlog of need from other groups.

Step 1.4 Total current housing need summary C.12 Having established the scale of need in Steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3, total current housing need from existing households across Tameside before any analysis of the ability of households to afford open market solutions is 9,588 (Note that a household may be included in more than one step of the analysis and so the sum of steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 can be greater than this figure). C.13 The extent to which these households could afford open market prices is then considered. An ‘affordability threshold’ of households is calculated which takes into account household income, equity and savings. The household income component of the affordability threshold is based on 3.5 x gross annual income of the respondent and partner (if applicable). C.14 The affordability threshold was then tested against lower quartile property prices and the cost of privately renting. This analysis has been based on Housing Market Character Area lower quartile prices for 2016 derived from Land Registry address-level data (Table C6). Information on private sector rents was based on lettings reported by Zoopla during 2016 (Table C6).

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Table C6 Lower quartile house prices by Ward Lower Quartile Private Rent HCMA Lower quartile price (£) (Per calendar month) Ashton Hurst 100,000 494 Ashton St Michael's 68,500 451 Ashton Waterloo 78,000 477 Audenshaw 90,000 494 Denton North East 84,000 477 Denton South 90,000 550 Denton West 116,750 524 Droylsden East 94,000 494 Droylsden West 88,000 524 Dukinfield 84,500 477 Dukinfield Stalybridge 100,000 494 Hyde Godley 85,000 451 Hyde Newton 83,000 494 Hyde Werneth 103,000 477 Longdendale 73,000 494 Mossley 97,750 451 St Peter's 64,000 451 Stalybridge North 85,000 425 Stalybridge South 100,000 494 Tameside Total 90,000 477 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2017, Zoopla 2017

C.15 Using evidence from the Household Survey, the extent to which households identified in Steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 could afford open market prices has been assessed. Overall, a total of 5,977 existing households in need wanted to move to offset their need and could not afford open market solutions.

Stage 2: Future housing need

Step 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) C.16 The needs analysis assumes a ‘blended’ household formation which takes account of the national rate (1.55% which is based on the latest three-year average national rate reported in the English Housing Survey over the period 2013/14 to 2015/16); the extent to which households have formed in the past 5 years (equivalent to 0.39% of all households); and the extent to which households want to form in the next 5 years (equivalent to 2.2% of all households). The overall blended rate is equivalent to 1.38% of all households.

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Step 2.2 New households unable to buy or rent in the open market C.17 Analysis of lower quartile market prices relative to the income/savings of households who have formed in the past five years suggests that 57.48% could not afford lower quartile house prices or private sector rents. C.18 Therefore, the total number of newly-forming households who could not afford open market prices or rents across Tameside is calculated to be 934 each year.

Step 2.3 Existing households expected to fall into need C.19 An estimate of the number of existing households falling into need each year has been established using the 2017 household survey evidence. This indicated that around 1,160 households moved into affordable/social renting because they fell into housing need in the preceding 5 years. This results in an annualised figure of 232.

Step 2.4 Total newly arising housing need (gross per year) C.20 Total newly arising need is calculated to be 1,166 households each year across Tameside.

Stage 3: Affordable housing supply C.21 The CLG model reviews the supply of affordable units, taking into account how many households in need are already in affordable accommodation, stock surpluses, committed supply of new affordable dwellings and dwellings being taken out of management (for instance pending demolition or being used for decanting).

Step 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need C.22 This is an important consideration in establishing the net levels of housing need as the movement of these households within affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need44. C.23 A total of 2,754 households are current occupiers of affordable housing in need. Although the movement of these households within affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need (i.e. they already live in affordable housing), the types of property they would ‘free up’ if they moved is considered in modelling.

Step 3.2 Surplus stock C.24 A proportion of vacant properties are needed to allow households to move within housing stock. Across the social rented sector, this proportion is generally recognised

44 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance (CLG, August 2007)

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as being 2%. Stock above this proportion is usually assumed to be surplus stock. Modelling assumes no surplus social rented stock across Tameside.

Step 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable units C.25 The model assumes does not take account of committed supply of affordable dwellings over the next five years. Any committed supply that is identified will help offset the annual net imbalance identified.

Step 3.4 Units to be taken out of management C.26 The model assumes there will be no social rented units taken out of management over the next five years.

Step 3.5 Total affordable housing stock available C.27 It is assumed that there are 2,754 affordable dwellings available over the five-year period arising from households moving within the stock.

Step 3.6 Annual supply of social re-lets C.28 The DCLG model considers the annual supply of social re-lets. Data on social relets has been provided by the Council for the three-year period. This can be analysed by affordable housing zone, number of bedrooms and designation (general needs and older person). C.29 District-level data on lettings is available from DCLG and this has been analysed for the four-year period 2014/15 to 2016/17. Analysis suggests that there is an annual average of 1,390 social/affordable rented dwellings let. C.30 Modelling therefore assumes an annual capacity of 1,390 social/affordable rented dwellings across Tameside.

Step 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate re-lets/sales C.31 The Council reports limited numbers of intermediate re-lets and sales and the model assumes zero supply. However, new provision is expected to come forward and this is accounted for in the pipeline provision data.

Summary of Stage 3 C.32 Overall, the model assumes a total affordable housing stock availability of 2,754 dwellings and an annual supply of 1,390 affordable/social rented lettings.

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Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need

Overview C.33 Analysis has carefully considered how housing need is arising within Tameside by identifying existing households in need (and who cannot afford market solutions), newly-forming households in need and existing households likely to fall into need. C.34 This has been reconciled with the supply of affordable dwellings which considers location, size and designation (i.e. for general needs or older person). Based on the CLG modelling process, analysis suggests that there is an overall annual net imbalance of 421 dwellings. C.35 For critical stages of the needs assessment model (Step 1.1, Step 1.4, Step 2.4 and Step 3.8), information is broken down by ward, designation (general needs and older) and property size. This goes beyond the requirement of the SHMA guidance but allows a detailed assessment of the overall housing requirements of households in need and provides clear affordable requirement information. In turn, this can help identify where there are shortfalls and sufficient capacity of affordable housing, and help to shape policy responses. C.36 Stage 4 brings together the individual components of the needs assessment to establish the total net annual shortfall.

Step 4.1 Total backlog need C.37 Step 4.1 is the total backlog need which is derived from the number of households in Step 1.4A minus total affordable housing stock available (Step 3.5). The total backlog need is 3,223.

Steps 4.2 to 4.6 C.38 Step 4.2 is a quota to reduce the total backlog need which is assumed to be 20% each year so that the backlog need is addressed over a 5 year period. C.39 Step 4.3 is the annual backlog reduction based on Step 4.2 (645 each year). C.40 Step 4.4 is a summary of newly-arising need from both newly forming households and existing households falling into need (1,166 each year). C.41 Step 4.5 is the total annual affordable need based on Steps 4.3 and 4.4 (1,811 each year). C.42 Step 4.6 is the annual social rented/intermediate tenure capacity based on Step 3.8 (1,390 each year).

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Total net imbalance C.43 Table C8 summarises the overall annual net affordable housing requirements for Tameside and by ward; designation (general needs and older person) and property size.

Table C8 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by ward, property size and designation 2017/18 to 2027/28 General Needs Older Person Ward 1/2 Bed 3+ Bed 1/2 Bed Total Ashton Hurst 20 19 2 42 Ashton St Michael's 69 16 6 91 Ashton Waterloo 86 29 12 127 Audenshaw 30 51 17 98 Denton North East 21 46 12 80 Denton South 46 10 4 59 Denton West -1 20 7 26 Droylsden East 33 16 10 59 Droylsden West 10 52 11 73 Dukinfield 21 35 2 58 Dukinfield Stalybridge 4 5 2 10 Hyde Godley 30 -86 -6 -62 Hyde Newton 17 -44 -57 -84 Hyde Werneth -5 38 3 36 Longdendale 0 -12 -3 -15 Mossley -11 -12 -5 -28 St Peter's 0 -6 -19 -25 Stalybridge North 0 -81 -32 -112 Stalybridge South -7 -4 -2 -13 Tameside Total 365 93 -37 421 Sources: 2017 Household Survey; RSL CORE Lettings and Sales

Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings C.44 Affordable housing includes social rented, affordable rented and intermediate tenure dwellings. New affordable development by Registered Providers will be affordable rented (with rents of up to 80% of open market rent) and in order to recommend an appropriate split between social rented and intermediate tenure, the stated preferences of households and the relative affordability of intermediate tenure products is now reviewed.

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Household tenure preferences C.45 Analysis has carefully considered the range of affordable tenures that may be appropriate for existing households in need and newly-forming households. Table C9 summarises the extent to which existing households in need and newly-forming would consider affordable renting and intermediate tenure options across Tameside. Analysis would suggest that a tenure split of 63.9% rented and 36.1% intermediate tenure would be appropriate across Tameside, with variations by ward as shown in Table C9. C.46 Table C10 verifies that a reasonable proportion of households could afford intermediate tenure prices based on equity shares of between £100,000 and £160,000, with 30.2% able to afford a property priced at up to £100,000.

Table C9 Affordable housing tenure options: existing and newly-forming households

Tenure Base (annual backlog Affordable Intermediate need plus newly Ward Rented Tenure Total arising need Ashton Hurst 77.8 22.2 100.0 120 Ashton St Michael's 55.2 44.8 100.0 148 Ashton Waterloo 54.6 45.4 100.0 201 Audenshaw 41.2 58.8 100.0 150 Denton North East 75.5 24.5 100.0 119 Denton South 56.8 43.2 100.0 175 Denton West 46.2 53.8 100.0 46 Droylsden East 79.3 20.7 100.0 120 Droylsden West 92.2 7.8 100.0 106 Dukinfield 84.6 15.4 100.0 154 Dukinfield Stalybridge 59.6 40.4 100.0 77 Hyde Godley 57.8 42.2 100.0 48 Hyde Newton 90.8 9.2 100.0 17 Hyde Werneth 37.1 62.9 100.0 64 Longdendale 46.7 53.3 100.0 80 Mossley 50.8 49.2 100.0 17 St Peter's 77.1 22.9 100.0 144 Stalybridge North 0.0 100.0 100.0 -6 Stalybridge South 50.1 49.9 100.0 29 Total 63.9 36.1 100.0 1811 Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Table C10 Ability of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing to afford intermediate tenure dwellings % could afford Existing households Newly-forming Price in need households Total up to £100,000 31.6 29.4 30.2 up to £120,000 18.0 19.0 18.6 up to £140,000 15.6 15.2 15.3 up to £160,000 11.5 12.4 12.1 Base 645 1,166 1,811 Source: 2017 Household Survey

C.47 There is clearly scope for expansion of the intermediate tenure market in Tameside. The final proportion of intermediate tenure dwellings to be delivered needs to be reconciled with the economic viability of delivering affordable housing on sites; the appetite of the HCA to fund intermediate tenure dwellings; and the ability of households to secure mortgages.

Dwelling type C.48 Table C11 considers the range of affordable property types households would consider, based on the aspirations of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable accommodation. Analysis of property type preferences suggests that, primarily, delivery of houses is a priority (with 71% stating an expectation of moving to a house), followed by flats/apartments (19.3%) and bungalows (9.7%). Table C14 presents data on dwelling type preferences by ward.

Table C11 Property type preferences Type preferences Existing (%) Newly-forming (%) Total (%) House 72.4 70.3 71.0 Flat 4.0 27.7 19.3 Bungalow 23.5 2.0 9.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 645 1166 1811 Based on expectations of existing households in need and what newly-formed households have moved to in the past 5 years Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Table C12 Property type preferences by ward Dwelling type Base (Annual existing and Ward House Flat Bungalow Total newly forming need) Ashton Hurst 88.5 2.3 9.2 100.0 120 Ashton St Michael's 78.9 15.6 5.5 100.0 148 Ashton Waterloo 91.9 5.7 2.3 100.0 201 Audenshaw 77.2 17.6 5.2 100.0 150 Denton North East 76.8 2.2 21.0 100.0 120 Denton South 45.8 36.6 17.6 100.0 176 Denton West 47.6 33.4 19.0 100.0 45 Droylsden East 48.2 50.7 1.1 100.0 120 Droylsden West 93.0 7.0 0.0 100.0 105 Dukinfield 82.6 17.4 0.0 100.0 154 Dukinfield Stalybridge 31.9 45.4 22.7 100.0 77 Hyde Godley 89.4 5.7 4.9 100.0 48 Hyde Newton 100.0 100.0 17 Hyde Werneth 89.3 4.4 6.3 100.0 64 Longdendale 53.2 25.5 21.3 100.0 80 Mossley 75.2 1.0 23.8 100.0 18 St Peter's 22.8 77.2 0.0 100.0 144 Stalybridge North 100.0 100.0 -7 Stalybridge South 87.9 5.0 7.1 100.0 32 Total 71.0 19.3 9.7 100.0 1811 Source: 2017 Household Survey

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Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements

Introduction D.1 Having invested considerable resources in obtaining an excellent range of primary and secondary data, it is vital that this information be used to the maximum effect and updated on a regular basis. The purpose of this appendix is to establish a framework for updating the housing needs model and affordable housing requirements. In addition, it recommends the regular monitoring and review of housing market activity and regular reflections on the wider strategic context.

Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements D.2 A baseline assessment of housing need across Tameside Metropolitan Borough has been derived from secondary data. This information should be taken as a baseline from which annual reviews of key aspects of the model proceed. It is recommended that the baseline information is updated on an annual basis using the latest housing register information. D.3 Key elements of the needs assessment model can be readily updated on an annual basis to reflect:  Changes in house prices and rental costs;  Capacity of the Social Rented sector; and  Availability of intermediate tenure housing.

Changes in house prices and rental costs D.4 It is recommended that the annual purchase of address-level house prices to complement the existing dataset continues. This will result in an annual refresh of house price data by survey area and provide an indication of changing lower quartile prices. In turn, these can be applied to Step 1.4 of the needs assessment model which considers the extent to which households in need can afford open market prices. As part of this analysis, updated information on private rented sector rents needs to be secured. Several websites can provide a snapshot of private rents and help inform this element of the update. D.5 Lower quartile prices and private sector rents should also be compared with the income profile of newly-forming households at Step 2.2 of the needs assessment model.

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Capacity of the Social Rented sector D.6 The capacity of the Social Rented sector needs to be reviewed annually using RP CORE lettings data (Step 3.6). D.7 A dataset has been prepared for RP CORE data for 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2014/15 as part of this research. This includes some additional variables identifying the characteristics of households (by designation i.e. under 65 or over 65) and previous housing circumstances (from out of area, previously social renter, previously other tenure and from supported/specialist accommodation). The capacity of the Social Rented sector is based on the number of lettings to households from within the Local Authority Metropolitan Borough who were previously living in (non Social Rented or intermediate) tenure.

Availability of Intermediate tenure housing D.8 CORE Sales data can identify the availability of Intermediate tenure housing (Step 3.7). Data has been assembled for 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2014/15.

Annual adjustments to Affordable requirements D.9 Datasets can be provided from which annual reviews of Affordable requirements can proceed. This will point to any adjustment in net requirements by survey area, designation and property size.

Determining an appropriate tenure split D.10 We would recommend that the Council encourages the managing agents of housing registers to record applicant income, access to savings and tenure preferences to further refine the tenure split of affordable dwellings across Tameside.

Updating of contextual information D.11 This report has presented a range of contextual information relating to the economy, demography (including population projections and migration) and dwelling stock. This information should be updated where possible and in particular progression with economic growth and diversification should be carefully monitored.

Reflections on the general strategic context and emerging issues D.12 As part of its strategic housing function, all LAs need to understand the general strategic housing market context and respond to emerging issues. Given the dynamic nature of housing markets, the Central and Local Government policy agenda and bidding for resources, any update of housing needs must be positioned within a wider strategic context.

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D.13 Ongoing stakeholder consultation and engagement with local communities is also vital to maintain up-to-date intelligence on housing market issues.

Concluding comments D.14 It is vital that mechanisms are in place to derive robust, credible and defensible estimates of housing need and affordable requirements across Tameside. We believe that this study provides a robust evidence base which has the capacity to be updated. D.15 Having established a baseline position on affordable housing and advice on open market provision to reflect aspirations, it is essential that housing market activity is regularly monitored. This is highly relevant given current housing market uncertainty. A range of methods have been suggested to ensure that housing need and affordability modelling is revised on an annual basis. Annual reviews should also take into account the changing strategic context and impact on housing market activity.

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Technical Appendix E: National Planning Policy Framework and Planning Practice Guidance Checklist

National Planning Policy Framework E.1 Paragraph 159 of the NPPF states that Local Planning Authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area and they should:  Prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where Housing Market Areas cross administrative boundaries. The SHMA should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the Plan period that: - Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change; - Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and - Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand. E.2 This housing needs study supports the wider SHMA evidence base which overall meets the requirements of the NPPF.

Planning Practice Guidance

Paragraph (no.) Response

Need for all types of The HNA has considered the range of market and affordable dwellings housing (021) required for all household types, including family housing, housing for older people, people wanting to build their own homes and households with specific needs. The role of the Private Rented Sector has also been considered

Calculating Current unmet need and projected future housing need has been calculated affordable housing and subtracted from the current supply of affordable housing stock need (022)

Households Analysis has considered the groups specified in guidance, namely: homeless considered to be in households or insecure tenure; mismatch between need and dwelling; social need (023) or physical impairment and living in unsuitable housing; lacking basic facilities; using evidence from the household survey.

Calculating unmet This has been calculated using household survey evidence gross need (024)

Newly arising Calculations have taken account of the proportion of newly-forming

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Paragraph (no.) Response affordable need households who cannot afford lower quartile market housing (to buy or rent) (025)

Total affordable Calculations take account of current supply of affordable housing through supply (026) households in need moving, surplus stock, committed supply and units taken out of management

Future relets and Calculations take account of the likely level of dwellings being let/sold based intermediate tenure on the most recent 3 year trends in lettings and sales sales (027)

Total affordable Annual flow (imbalance) of affordable need has been calculated based on total need (028) need from existing households and newly-forming households minus supply. The split between rented/intermediate tenure (including Starter Homes) dwellings has been considered along with the size (no. beds) and designation (general needs/older person) of affordable dwellings.

December 2017