Tameside Housing Need Assessment (HNA) 2017 Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council Final Report December 2017 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2017 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 2 Table of contents Executive summary ......................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 8 The Housing Market Area (HMA) ........................................................................................ 8 The current housing market ................................................................................................ 9 Understanding the future housing market ....................................................................... 11 The need for all types of housing ...................................................................................... 11 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 14 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 15 Background and objectives ............................................................................................... 15 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) and other requirements ........................................................................................................... 15 Definitions ......................................................................................................................... 16 Geography ......................................................................................................................... 18 Greater Manchester strategic context .............................................................................. 19 Data analysis and presentation ......................................................................................... 20 Research methodology ..................................................................................................... 22 Report structure ................................................................................................................ 22 2. Understanding the Housing Market.................................................................................. 24 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 24 Tameside strategic context ............................................................................................... 24 House prices and rates of change in house prices ............................................................ 26 Migration and self-containment ....................................................................................... 30 Commuting patterns ......................................................................................................... 32 Concluding comments ....................................................................................................... 33 3. Tameside housing market review ..................................................................................... 35 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 35 Property profile ................................................................................................................. 35 Tenure characteristics ....................................................................................................... 43 Relative affordability of housing options .......................................................................... 73 4. Understanding the future housing market in Tameside ................................................... 80 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 80 Key market drivers ............................................................................................................ 80 Past trends in housing delivery ......................................................................................... 84 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ............................................ 85 Future executive housing development ........................................................................... 87 Concluding comments ....................................................................................................... 95 December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 3 5. The need for all types of housing ...................................................................................... 96 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 96 Current households in need .............................................................................................. 96 Family housing................................................................................................................. 102 Armed forces accommodation ........................................................................................ 104 Older persons housing .................................................................................................... 104 Households with specific needs ...................................................................................... 112 Homeless and previously homeless households ............................................................ 113 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 115 6. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ........................................................................... 117 The Housing Market Area ............................................................................................... 117 The current housing market ............................................................................................ 117 Future housing market .................................................................................................... 118 Housing need and demand ............................................................................................. 118 NPPF requirements ......................................................................................................... 120 Final comments ............................................................................................................... 121 Introduction to Technical Appendices ........................................................................................ 122 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ........................................................................... 123 Overall approach ............................................................................................................. 123 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors ..................................... 123 Interviews with estate and letting agents ....................................................................... 125 Technical Appendix B: Housing policy review ............................................................................. 126 National housing reviews ................................................................................................ 141 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations ...................................................................... 142 Summary of contents ...................................................................................................... 142 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 143 Stage 1: Current need .................................................................................................... 146 Stage 2: Future housing need ........................................................................................ 150 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ................................................................................ 151 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need ..................................................................... 153 Total net imbalance ......................................................................................................... 154 Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings .............................................. 154 Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating ....................................................................... 158 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ..................................................................................................... 158 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 158 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements ................. 158 December 2017 Tameside HNA 2017 Page | 4 Concluding comments ..................................................................................................... 160 Technical Appendix E: National Planning Policy