ARCTIC GOVERNANCE: Understanding the geopolitics of commercial shipping via the Northern Sea Route By HANS-PETTER BJØRKLI Master Thesis Department of Comparative Politics June 2015 Abstract The purpose of this study is to examine the implications of the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) with regard to governance in the Arctic. This topic is of importance as Arctic waters are getting bluer, more accessible, exploitable and attractive to investors, both public and private. Thus, numerous states and the international shipping industry are increasingly eyeing the NSR as an alternative trade route between Asia and Europe. However, the Arctic region and the NSR waters’ sovereignty remain unclear. Moreover, an increased density of international merchant vessels in the Arctic Ocean, a military reasserted Russia and the growing influence of China in international politics and trade suggest that the geopolitics of the Arctic may be challenged by the NSR. In this thesis, I have analysed the NSR’s effect on Arctic governance by applying classic theories of International Relations and illuminating the research question with data from expert interviews and a comprehensive document base. The findings indicate that liberalist values triumph realism, and that the NSR therefore does not have the potential to interrupt the current institutionalised and peaceful international political environment of the Arctic. Conversely, there is a possibility that conflicts in other parts of the world may disrupt the prosperity of international shipping via the NSR due to spillover effects. I Acknowledgements I owe my thanks to several people whom have provided me with guidance and motivation in the process of writing this thesis. Firstly, I wish to thank my supervisor, Professor Per Selle at the Department of Comparative Politics, for his support and insightful feedback. Furthermore, I would like to extend my gratitude to the five hospitable informants that shared their highly interesting stories and insights about the theme under investigation. Their information and advises have made a major contribution to this volume. Third, I am grateful to my closest friends for their inspiration, opinions and encouragement throughout the process. Finally, a last thank you to Tonje. You are indispensible. Bergen, June 2015 Hans-Petter Bjørkli II Table of contents Abstract I Acknowledgements II Table of contents III List of tables V List of figures V List of abbreviations V 1. Introduction 1 1.1 The issue 1 1.2 Research question 2 1.3 Theoretical framework 3 1.4 Relevance 4 1.5 Outline of the thesis 7 2. Definitions 9 2.1 The Arctic and Arctic states 9 2.2 The Northern Sea Route 10 2.3 Shipping 14 2.4 Governance 14 3. Theoretical framework 16 3.1 The anarchic system of states 16 3.2 The two paradigms in International Relations 17 3.3 Realism in International Relations 18 3.4 Liberalism in International Relations 21 3.5 Which one is right? 22 3.6 Geopolitics in International Relations 23 3.7 Geopolitics in the Arctic 25 3.8 Applying the theory 28 4. Methodological considerations 30 4.1 Single-case study research design 30 4.2 Data collection 32 4.2.1 Semi-structured expert interviews 33 4.2.2 Conducting the interviews 36 4.2.3 Written sources 37 4.3 Assuring data quality 39 4.4 Ethical considerations 40 4.5 Concluding remarks 41 III 5. Examining the Northern Sea Route 42 5.1 Destination and transit shipping on the NSR 42 5.2 The historical development of shipping via the NSR 43 5.2.1 Arctic exploration 43 5.2.2 Commercialising the NSR 43 5.2.3 World War II and the strategic role of the NSR 45 5.2.4 The NSR during the Cold War 46 5.2.5 The NSR after Soviet times 48 5.3 The modern NSR and its traffic numbers 50 5.3.1 Traffic increase from 2009 50 5.3.2 International transit shipments via the NSR 52 5.3.3 Destination shipments via the NSR 57 5.3.4 Traffic decline in 2014 59 5.4 Advantages and pull factors for a greater utilisation of the NSR 63 5.4.1 Shorter sailing distance 63 5.4.2 Political instability on the Suez-Malacca route 66 5.4.3 Arctic natural resources 67 5.4.4 China’s interest in the Arctic and the NSR 69 5.4.5 Reform of the NSR Administration 71 5.5 Limitations of the NSR 71 6. The implications of the NSR on Arctic governance 75 6.1 Interpreting the NSR from a realist point of view 76 6.1.1 Territorial aggression 76 6.1.2 Aggressive rhetoric 77 6.1.3 China’s increasing geopolitical weight 78 6.1.4 Strengthening of Russia’s armed forces 79 6.2 The NSR through a liberalist lens 80 6.2.1 The legal regime of the Arctic and the NSR 80 6.2.2 The distribution of natural resources 84 6.2.3 The Arctic Council 84 6.2.4 A stronger Russian presence in the Arctic 85 6.3 An Arctic zone of peace 87 6.4 Conflict spillover in the Arctic 88 7. Conclusion 91 7.1 Suggestions for further research 93 8. Bibliography 94 9. Appendix i 9.1 Declaration of consent i 9.2 Interview guide for Arild Moe ii 9.3 Interview guide for Ulf Hagen iii 9.4 Interview guide for Tommy Flakk iv 9.5 Interview guide for Kevin Luneborg Thomassen v 9.6 Interview guide for Rolf Arne Billington and Geir Winnæs vi IV List of tables Table 1: Selected international transit shipments via the NSR in 2013 54 Table 2: Sailing distances between Asia and Europe (Rotterdam), in nautical miles 65 List of figures Figure 1: The Arctic as defined by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 10 Figure 2: The Russian Arctic and route alternatives within the Northern Sea Route 12 Figure 3: The Northwest Passage and the Trans Polar Route in comparison with the NSR 13 Figure 4: Number of NSR shipments by year 51 Figure 5: Number of NSR shipments by year and calls at Russian or non-Russian ports 53 Figure 6: Number of international transit shipments via the NSR by type of cargo and year 54 Figure 7: Number of destination shipments via the NSR by type of cargo and year 58 Figure 8: Number of NSR shipments by year, with trendline 60 Figure 9: The Northern Sea Route and the Suez-Malacca Route 64 List of abbreviations A5: Arctic five (Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States) A8: Arctic eight (the abovementioned five, plus Finland, Sweden and Iceland) AMAP: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme BCM: Billion cubic metres of natural gas CLCS: United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf CNPC: China National Petroleum Corporation EEZ: Economic exclusion zone IMO: International Maritime Organisation LNG: Liquefied natural gas LNGC: Liquefied natural gas carrier MV: Motor vessel MT: Motor tanker NEP: The Northeast Passage NM: Nautical mile NSR: The Northern Sea Route NWP: The Northwest Passage SS: Steam ship SSBN: Sub surface ballistic nuclear (also known as strategic nuclear ballistic missile submarine) TSR: The Transpolar Route USGS: United States Geological Survey UNCLOS: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea V 1. Introduction 1.1 The issue The Arctic region has in the last decade undergone extraordinary environmental and developmental changes. Since the collapse of the multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in 2007, prospects for commercial and economic opportunities have surfaced, due to the combination of new shipping routes and formerly inaccessible, vast natural resources. These opportunities have caught the attention of a number of different stakeholders seeking to profit on the Arctic’s revived strategic significance, which is increasing due to the fact that as the sea ice recedes, ships are now able to penetrate an ocean that connects the world’s three most developed continents. The prospects of increased shipping in the Arctic are first and foremost associated with the Northern Sea Route (hereafter the NSR). The NSR is a navigation route in the coastal parts of the Arctic Ocean, following the northern coast of Russia, and providing the shortest sailing route between Europe and Asia. Numerous studies find that the thawing Arctic sea ice enables the commercialisation of east-west shipping via the NSR, shortening the travel distance with up to 40 per cent compared to the conventional Suez-Malacca route. 1 These studies have in the last years been confirmed by an increasing number of successful NSR transits by merchant vessels, fuelling the sea route’s attention in international shipping and governmental settings. Arctic shipping is not a new phenomenon; the passage has been used irregularly for about a century, connecting the Atlantic Ocean and markets in the west with the Pacific and its eastern trading partners. However, the last years’ average sea ice melting rate has brought with it a drastic increase in the number of commercial transits in relative terms, both for intra-Russian destinational shipping and for international transit shipping (Buixadé Farré et al. 2014: 2; Moe 2014: 784). This rapid development has led to discussions in governmental, maritime industry and academic settings about how soon the NSR can be realised as a viable and regular sea passage between east and west, and what impact this will have on a global scale in commercial as well as political terms. While some researchers claim that the NSR inevitably will be integrated in the world economy and that the opening of a new sea 1 See for example Hong (2012) or Schøyen & Bråthen (2011).