Search and Rescue in the Arctic: Is the U.S. Prepared?
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Dissertation Search and Rescue in the Arctic Is the U.S. Prepared? Timothy William James Smith This document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2016 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Abbie Tingstad (Chair), Brien Alkire, and Scott Stephenson. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD382.html Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Table of Contents Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................... v Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... vii Chapter One: Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Motivation and Background ..................................................................................................................... 1 Research Questions .................................................................................................................................. 4 Initial Hypotheses ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Methodology............................................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter Two: Foundational Knowledge for Arctic Search and Rescue ......................................... 9 The Search and Rescue Mission Set ......................................................................................................... 9 Search and Rescue Policy ....................................................................................................................... 11 The COSPAS-SARSAT System ............................................................................................................ 15 Unique Challenges of the Arctic ............................................................................................................ 17 SAR in the Arctic ................................................................................................................................... 21 Chapter Three: What is the current demand for Arctic SAR, and what factors affect its future trajectory? ............................................................................................................................... 23 Current Demand from Historical Arctic SAR Cases .............................................................................. 23 Maritime Arctic Activity ........................................................................................................................ 24 Arctic Aeronautical Activity .................................................................................................................. 32 Military Activity and Catastrophic Incident SAR .................................................................................. 34 Longer-Term Arctic Future Uncertain ................................................................................................... 36 Arctic Risk Factors ................................................................................................................................. 38 Role of Technology and Policy in Mitigating Risk ................................................................................ 38 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 46 Chapter Four: What is the current U.S. capability for supplying SAR in the Arctic, and how is it changing? ................................................................................................................................ 47 Air Force SAR Capabilities .................................................................................................................... 47 USCG SAR Capabilities ......................................................................................................................... 52 Additional Partners for Arctic SAR ........................................................................................................ 59 Role of Satellite Technology in Improving SAR Supply ....................................................................... 67 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 71 Chapter Five: Arctic SAR Scenario Analysis ............................................................................... 72 Scenario Selection and Development ..................................................................................................... 72 Military SAR Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................................ 74 Aeronautical SAR Scenario Analysis ..................................................................................................... 78 Maritime SAR Scenario Analysis ........................................................................................................... 82 Key Challenges for Arctic SAR ............................................................................................................. 86 Chapter Six: Findings and Recommendations .............................................................................. 90 iii Research Findings .................................................................................................................................. 90 Policy Recommendations ....................................................................................................................... 92 Appendix A: Interviews with Subject Matter Experts .................................................................. 96 Appendix B: Arctic SAR Model ................................................................................................... 98 Appendix C: Military SAR Scenario Analysis ........................................................................... 104 Appendix D: Aeronautical SAR Scenario Analysis ................................................................... 112 Appendix E: Maritime SAR Scenario Analysis .......................................................................... 130 Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 142 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 145 iv Acknowledgments Dissertations are hard, but writing a dissertation on Arctic Search and Rescue made a mockery of my own struggles. My research path inevitably led me to stories of Arctic and Antarctic survival that I could hardly believe. Stories like that of Frank Worsley and the ill-fated 1915 Trans-Antarctic Expedition. He was the captain of the ship, the Endurance, when the Antarctic sea ice crushed and swallowed their ship leaving the 28-man crew alone on the ice with dwindling resources. They survived for 500 days until, finally, the churning sea ice spit them out to the open ocean. They launched three lifeboats amidst 30-foot ocean swells and sailed desperately for Elephant Island, an inhospitable and uninhabited fragment of land jutting out of the Antarctic Ocean. They landed ashore, but were still far from safety. The survival of all 28 members of their crew hinged on them reaching a whaling station on South Georgia Island, 800 miles to the north. A select few would have to embark once more in an exposed lifeboat, navigating by the stars, battling the southern ocean, and hoping desperately to hit the island and organizing a rescue party. Six men went, but the responsibility for navigating the lifeboat—and thus withstanding the worst of the punishing ocean—lay squarely on Worsley’s shoulders. For 15 days and nights, he fought the swells, the storms, and the voice inside his head telling him he had nothing left to