Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

APPENDIX 5C METEOROLOGY

December 2006 Page 5C-1

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

December 2006 Page 5C-2

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

5C.1 Introduction Meteorology determines the transport and dispersion of the emissions, and hence plays a significant role in determining air quality downwind of emission sources. For the Sturgeon Upgrader air quality assessment, meteorological data for the year 2002 were used to define transport and dispersion parameters. The meteorological data from the 2002 period are compared to the longer term climate information to provide a measure of representativeness for this year. Meteorological characteristics vary with time (e.g., season and time of day) and location (e.g., height, terrain and land use). The CALMET meteorological pre-processing program was used to provide temporally and spatially varying meteorological parameters for the CALPUFF model. This appendix provides an overview of the meteorology and climate for the region as well as the technical details and options that were used for the application of the CALMET meteorological preprocessor to the Project study area.

5C.2 Study Domain The CALMET study domain adopted for the Project extends from approximately 53.3 degrees latitude in the south to 54.3 degrees latitude in the north, and from 113.9 degrees longitude in the west to 112.4 degrees longitude in the east, as shown in Figure 5C-1. The CALMET study domain includes the communities of Edmonton and Leduc towards the south of the domain, and the community of Westlock in the north. The study domain covers a 10,000-km2 area, the extents of which are provided in Table 5C-1.

Table 5C-1: CALMET (100 km by 100 km) domain coordinates (UTM Zone 12; NAD 83)

Domain Extent Easting Northing (m) (m) Southwest 307000 5917000 Northwest 307000 6017000 Southeast 407000 5917000 Northeast 407000 6017000

A horizontal grid spacing of 1 km was selected for the CALMET simulation; the study area therefore corresponds to 100 rows by 100 columns. With this grid spacing, it was possible to maximize run time and file size efficiencies while still capturing large-scale terrain feature influences on wind flow patterns. To properly simulate pollution transport and dispersion, it is also important to simulate the typical vertical profiles of wind direction, wind speed, temperature, and turbulence intensity within the atmospheric boundary layer (i.e., the layer within about 2000 metres above the Earth’s surface). To capture this vertical structure, eight vertical layers were selected. CALMET defines a vertical layer as the midpoint between two faces (i.e., nine faces corresponds to eight layers, with the lowest layer always being ground level or 10 m). The vertical faces used in this study are 0, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 600, 1400 and 2600 m.

December 2006 Page 5C-3

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 Pibroch

RGE 26 RGE 25 RGE 24 RGE 23 RGE 22 RGE 21 RGE 20 RGE 19 RGE 18 RGE 17 Westlock W4M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6

Vimy TWP 59 Waskatenau

Re dw at er

829

TWP 58

R iv Busby er 0 Legal 0 0 0

0 Redwater Redwater 0 0 28 0 8 Natural Area 8 9 9 5 Lostpoint TWP 57 5 Lake 803 er 38 iv R 45 an ew ch Gibbons at Bon Accord sk 643 a TWP 56 S Be Morinville av h erh r t ill C e r reek iv o R N 0 0

0 n Bruderheim 0 0 28 eo 0 0 g 28A 0 6 r 15 6 9 tu 9 5 S 5 Lamont Namao TWP 55

Fort Saskatchewan 825 Astotin Lake 830 TWP 54 21 Elk Island National Park 0 0 0 0

0 Fawayik 0 0 0 4 4

9 Lake 9 5 Edmonton 16 TWP 53 5

TWP 52 Beaver Hills Beaverhill

0 Lake 0 0 Cooking 0 0 0

0 Lake 0 2 2 9 9

5 Devon 5

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000

Community Elevation (m ASL) Paved Access 790 Unpaved Access Railway 560 Project Fence Line Urban Area Natural Area Protected Area

PREPARED FOR STURGEON UPGRADER 5 0 5 10 15

PREPARED BY Terrain in the Distance in Kilometres Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAFT DATE PROJECT SCALE 100 km by 100 km Projection: 02/10/2006 OS1589 1:650,000 UTM 12 NAD 83 REVISION DATE FIGURE ID CALMET Domain 24/11/2006 Acknowledgements: AXYS-CAL-053-000 Original Drawing by: Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAWN CHECKED APPROVED FIGURE Consulting Ltd. Sources: Alberta Government, NRN AO MD MD 5C-1 Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

5C.2.1 Regional Topography The valleys and elevated terrain features can affect local surface wind flow patterns. A general overview of the terrain within the CALMET domain is presented in Figure 5C-1. Terrain features include: • The North Saskatchewan River valley is an important feature of the domain. At its deepest point, the valley is about 30 m lower than the surrounding area. • The Redwater River connects to the North Saskatchewan valley northeast of Fort Saskatchewan. • Elk Island National Park (~730 m or 2400 ft AMSL) is in the south-southeast part of the domain. • Ministik Lake Provincial Bird Sanctuary (~762 m or 2500 ft AMSL) is in the southern part of the domain. • The Beaverhill Lake (~680 m or 2230 ft AMSL) is in the southeast part of the domain and is the largest body of water in the region. • Elevated terrain in the Bon Accord area (~720 m or 2360 ft AMSL) is west-northwest of the Project and the Beaver Hills region (~760 m or 2500 ft AMSL) located in the southeast part of the domain. • Lower terrain (~610 m or 2000 ft AMSL) is northeast portion of the domain along the North Saskatchewan River valley. The valleys and elevated terrain features can affect local surface wind flow patterns; however, the remainder of the domain is predominantly flat. While the selected grid spacing (1 km) is sufficient to resolve broad-scale North Saskatchewan River valley influences, it will not resolve detailed local-scale valley influences. As the Project site is located approximately 3 km from the edge of the valley, this loss of resolution will not affect the assessment.

5C.2.2 Land-use Data Land-use in the CALMET study domain is mixed. The domain is characterized by agricultural land (70 percent), forestland (19 percent), rangeland (10 percent), urban or built-up land (4 percent), and water (3 percent). Values for surface roughness (z0), leaf area index (LAI), albedo, Bowen ratio and soil heat flux are given in Table 5C-2. The year was divided into four seasons as follows: winter (January, February and December), spring (March, April and May), summer (June, July and August) and fall (September, October and November). Figure 5C-2 shows the land use on a 1 km resolution basis for the study area.

December 2006 Page 5C-5

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 Pibroch

RGE 26 RGE 25 RGE 24 RGE 23 RGE 22 RGE 21 RGE 20 RGE 19 RGE 18 RGE 17 Westlock W4M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6

Vimy TWP 59 Waskatenau

Re dw at er

829

TWP 58

R iv Busby er 0 Legal 0 0 0

0 Redwater Redwater 0 0 28 0 8 Natural Area 8 9 9 5 Lostpoint TWP 57 5 Lake 803 er 38 iv R 45 an ew ch Gibbons at Bon Accord sk 643 a TWP 56 S Be Morinville av h erh r t ill C e r reek iv o R N 0 0

0 n Bruderheim 0 0 28 eo 0 0 g 28A 0 6 r 15 6 9 tu 9 5 S 5 Lamont Namao TWP 55

Fort Saskatchewan 825 Astotin Lake 830 TWP 54 21 Elk Island National Park 0 0 0 0

0 Fawayik 0 0 0 4 4

9 Lake 9 5 Edmonton 16 TWP 53 5

TWP 52 Beaver Hills Beaverhill

0 Lake 0 0 Cooking 0 0 0

0 Lake 0 2 2 9 9

5 Devon 5

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000

Community Land Use Class Paved Access Urban Unpaved Access Agriculture Railway Ranchlands Project Fence Line Mixed Forest Protected Area Deciduous Forest Natural Area Coniferous Forest Urban Area Water

PREPARED FOR STURGEON UPGRADER 5 0 5 10 15

PREPARED BY Land-Use Classes on a Distance in Kilometres Jacques Whitford-AXYS 1 km by 1km Grid in the DRAFT DATE PROJECT SCALE Projection: 02/10/2006 OS1589 1:650,000 UTM 12 NAD 83 100 km by 100 km REVISION DATE FIGURE ID 24/11/2006 Acknowledgements: AXYS-CAL-053-000 CALMET Domain Original Drawing by: Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAWN CHECKED APPROVED FIGURE Consulting Ltd. Sources: Alberta Government, NRN AO MD MD 5C-2 Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Table 5C-2: CALMET Domain Land-use Characterization and Associated Geophysical Parameters Surface Roughness Albedo Bowen Ratio (m) Land Use Class Win Spr Sum Fal Win Spr Sum Fal Win Spr Sum Fal Cropland 0.15 0.22 0.50 0.32 0.75 0.20 0.20 0.20 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 Rangeland 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Mixed Forest 1.20 1.2 1.15 1.15 0.17 0.13 0.12 0.12 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.9 Deciduous forest 0.55 0.75 1.05 0.95 0.21 0.15 0.15 0.15 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.6 Coniferous Forest 0.90 0.90 0.80 0.90 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.08 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.4 Urban 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Water .001 .001 .001 .001 0.75 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Soil Heat Flux (fraction) Leaf Area Index Land Use Class Win Spr Sum Fal Win Spr Sum Fal Cropland 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.8 0.3 Rangeland 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Mixed Forest 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3 3.3 4.5 2.3 Deciduous forest 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 3.4 0.1 Coniferous Forest 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.5 5.2 5.2 4.7 Urban 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Water 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NOTE: Win = winter, Spr = spring, Sum = summer, Fal = fall

5C.3 Meteorology and Climate Meteorological data collected in the area surrounding the Project site have been analyzed to characterize the existing regional and local climate. These data are discussed on a parameter-by-parameter basis and include wind, temperature, mixing heights, precipitation, relative humidity, visibility and solar radiation. As the measurements represent specific locations, the CALMET meteorological model was applied to provide a full three dimensional interpolation of the key meteorological parameters from a plume transport and dispersion perspective. This section describes the existing climate in the region based on the measurements and the CALPUFF predictions.

5C.3.1 Sources of Data The FAP collects selected meteorological parameters in the Fort Saskatchewan area as part of their ambient air quality monitoring program. For the most part, these data are only available for the period since the FAP was formed (i.e., since the fall of 1997). Longer period information is available from the three airports in the region: Edmonton City Centre Airport, Edmonton International Airport, and Edmonton Namao Airport. The locations of these

December 2006 Page 5C-7

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

meteorological stations used in this climate analysis are summarized in Table 5C-3 and presented graphically in Figure 5C-3. Information relating to wind was obtained from five years of continuous hourly monitoring data (for the period of January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2005) for the Fort Saskatchewan station and for three years of data (January 1, 2003 to April 30, 2006) for the Ross Creek, Redwater, Scotford and Lamont stations; these data were obtained from the Alberta Clean Air Strategic Alliance (CASA) database (CASA 2006). Regional scale climate data were obtained from the Environment Canada climate normals (1971-2000) for Fort Saskatchewan and the three airports (Environment Canada 2006, Internet site). Solar radiation data were obtained from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) (1961-1990) Canadian Ecodistrict Climate Normals (CECN) for the Edmonton area (AAFC 1997, Internet site).

5C.3.2 CALMET The CALMET model was applied for 2002 (i.e., for 8760 hours). The model requires surface and upper air information. The following Fort Air Partnership surface meteorological stations were used: Fort Saskatchewan, Ross Creek, Redwater, Scotford and Lamont. The upper air meteorological data produced by the MM5 model (a mesoscale meteorological model assimilation produced by Penn State/NCAR) were used as an initial guess field (Scire et al. 2000). The CALMET model adjusted the initial guess field for the kinematic effects of terrain, slope flows, and terrain blocking effects using the finer scaled CALMET terrain data to produce a modified wind field. The MM5 mesoscale information was supplied by Environment Canada and was used to generate vertical wind and temperature profiles across western Canada on a 12 km grid resolution for the 2002 model year.

December 2006 Page 5C-8

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Table 5C-3: Geographic Coordinates of Meteorological Stations Included in the Climate Analysis

Source Station Name Latitude Longitude Elevation UTM NAD83 (m ASL) mE mN Zone Environment Canada (EC) Fort Saskatchewan 53o 43’ N 113o 10’ W 620 357024 5954178 12 Edmonton Namao Airport 53o 40’ N 113o 28’ W 688 337037 5949263 12 Edmonton City Centre Airport 53° 34' N 113° 31' W 671 333341 5938256 12 Edmonton International Airport 53°19' N 113°35' W 723 327919 5910610 12 Agriculture and Agri-Food Edmonton, Alberta 53o 23' N 113o 26’ W 570 338504 5918801 12 Canada (AAFC) Fort Air Partnership (FAP) Fort Saskatchewan 53o 42’ N 113o 13’ W 627 353223 5952316 12 Ross Creek 53o 43’ N 113o 12’ W 618 354895 5954151 12 Redwater 53o 51’ N 113o 06’ W 624 362260 5968154 12 Scotford 53o 47’ N 113o 04’ W 618 363306 5962031 12 Lamont 53o 46’ N 112o 53’ W 724 376285 5958423 12 NOTES: EC = Canadian Climate Normal Station: 1971-2000 (Environment Canada 2006, Internet site). AAFC = Canadian Ecodistrict Climate Normals: 1961-1990 (AAFC 1997). FAP = Continuous Monitoring Station. Clean Air Strategic Alliance (CASA 2006).

December 2006 Page 5C-9

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 Pibroch

RGE 26 RGE 25 RGE 24 RGE 23 RGE 22 RGE 21 RGE 20 RGE 19 RGE 18 RGE 17 Westlock W4M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6

Vimy TWP 59 Waskatenau

Re dw at er

829

TWP 58

R iv Busby er 0 Legal 0 0 0

0 Redwater Redwater 0 0 28 0 8 Natural Area 8 9 9 5 TWP 57 5 803 er Lostpoint 38 iv Lake R 45 an Redwater ew ch Gibbons at Bon Accord sk 643 a TWP 56 S Be Morinville av h erh r t ill C e r reek iv o R N 0 Scotford 0

0 n Bruderheim 0 0 28 eo 0 0 g 28A 0 6 r 15 6 9 tu 9 5 S Lamont 5 Lamont Namao TWP 55 Ross Creek EC Fort Saskatchewan Edmonton Namao Fort Saskatchewan Airport 825 FAP Fort Saskatchewan Astotin Lake 830 TWP 54 21 Elk Island National Park 0 0 0 0

0 Fawayik 0 0 Edmonton City Centre 0 4 4

9 Lake 9

5 Airport 5 16 TWP 53

TWP 52 Beaver Edmonton Hills Beaverhill

0 Lake 0 0 Cooking 0 0 0

0 AAFC Lake 0 2 2 9 9

5 Devon 5

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000

Meteorological Station Elevation (m ASL)

Community 790 Paved Access Unpaved Access 560 Railway Project Fence Line Urban Area Natural Area Protected Area

PREPARED FOR STURGEON UPGRADER 5 0 5 10 15

PREPARED BY Meteorological Stations used Distance in Kilometres Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAFT DATE PROJECT SCALE in the 100 km by 100 km Projection: 02/10/2006 OS1589 1:650,000 UTM 12 NAD 83 REVISION DATE FIGURE ID Climate Analysis of the 24/11/2006 Acknowledgements: AXYS-CAL-053-000 Study Area Original Drawing by: Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAWN CHECKED APPROVED FIGURE Consulting Ltd. Sources: Alberta Government, NRN AO MD MD 5C-3 Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

5C.4 Wind

5C.4.1 Measured Surface Winds At the Fort Saskatchewan station, wind data were analyzed for a five-year period from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2005. The wind data collected at other stations were analyzed for the period January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2005. Wind data for the other stations were also reviewed and used in the CALMET model even though data for the full year were not available. The wind data are presented in a wind rose format, which is a joint frequency distribution of wind speed and direction plotted as a histogram in a polar format. The direction of the bar indicates the direction the wind is blowing from on a 16-point compass basis. The length of the radial bars gives the total percent frequency of winds from the indicated direction, while portions of the bars of different widths indicate the frequency of associated wind speed categories. Figure 5C-4 compares the wind roses for a longer period with the 2002 data. The following are noted with respect to each station: • The Fort Saskatchewan station has mean and maximum wind speeds of 2.0 and 11.0 m/s. The predominant winds are from the southwest and calms are frequent (5.6 percent). Approximately 63.3 percent of winds are less than 2 m/s and 1.2 percent of winds are greater than 6 m/s. The 2002 data are similar to the longer-term data. • For the Ross Creek station, the winds originate most often from the west. The strongest recorded wind speed is 9.9 m/s and the mean wind speed is 2.7 m/s. Calms are infrequent, occurring 3.0 percent of the time. Approximately 36.1 percent of winds are less than 2 m/s while 4.1 percent are greater than 6 m/s. The 2002 data are different from the longer-term period; this may be due to the partial 2002 year. • The Redwater station has mean and maximum wind speeds of 3.6 and 17.8 m/s. The predominant winds are from the southwest and northwest. Calms are infrequent, occurring 2.0 percent of the time. Approximately 20.9 percent of winds are less than 2 m/s and 12.7 percent of winds are greater than 6 m/s. The 2002 data are different from the longer-term period; this may be due to the partial 2002 year. • At the Scotford monitoring station, the predominant winds are from the south-southwest. The strongest recorded wind speed is 12.7 m/s and the mean speed is 3.5 m/s. Calms are frequent, occurring 3.3 percent of the time. Approximately 23.9 percent of winds are less than 2 m/s and 13.4 percent of winds exceed 6 m/s. The 2002 data are different from the longer-term period; this may be due to the partial 2002 year. • For the Lamont station, the winds originate most often from the west-southwest. The strongest recorded wind speed is 15.8 m/s and the mean wind speed is 3.8 m/s. Calms are infrequent, occurring 0.9 percent of the time. Approximately 17.5 percent of winds are less than 2 m/s while 13.9 percent are greater than 6 m/s. The 2002 data are different from the longer-term period; this may be due to the partial 2002 year. A comparison of the longer-term wind roses indicates some variability across the region. To some extent, this may be due more to local influences associated with each monitoring station, than due to large-scale regional variations. The Redwater site is the closest to the Project site, and the data from this site indicate strong winds from the northwest sector (this is also supported by the Scotford site measurements). There appears to be a tendency for all sites to show a southwest component; this is likely due to channelling effects associated with the Fort Saskatchewan River valley. Lighter winds are associated with the monitoring sites that are

December 2006 Page 5C-11

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment in the Fort Saskatchewan community area (i.e., Fort Saskatchewan and Ross Creek); this is likely due to the increased roughness associated with buildings and trees.

5C.4.2 Predicted Surface Winds (2002) Figure 5C-5 compares the predicted (full year) and measured (partial year) wind roses at the locations of the five surface stations used. The following are noted with respect to each station: • The Fort Saskatchewan, Redwater and Scotford station predicted and measured wind roses are similar. • The predicted wind roses for the Ross Creek and Lamont stations are closer to the respective long-term measured wind roses than the partial 2002 measured values. The wind roses show some differences between measured and the predicted wind directions and frequencies. The differences can be attributed to the use of a partial 2002 year to represent the measured data, and to the CALMET model not accounting for local influences. The CALPUFF model surface feature resolution is on a 1 x 1-km grid basis.

5C.4.3 Surface Wind Vector Plots Figure 5C-6 shows the wind field as a vector plot at 1300 LST on July 15 under convective conditions (PG class B). Winds at the site are dominated by a light southwesterly flow. Winds in the northwest part of the domain are dominated by a westerly flow and stronger than in the rest of the domain. The measured data for this hour at the Fort Saskatchewan monitoring station shows winds from the west with a wind speed of approximately 2.0 m/s. Figure 5C-7 shows the wind field as a vector plot at 0500 LST on January 19 under very stable conditions (PG class F). An easterly flow dominates the domain at this hour. The influence of the river valley can be seen with the channelling of the winds. The measured data for this hour at the Fort Saskatchewan monitoring station shows winds from the east-northeast with a wind speed of approximately 2.0 m/s.

5C.4.4 Predicted Upper Wind Plots Figure 5C-8 shows the wind roses predicted by CALMET for the Project site for varying elevations above ground level. The results indicate a tendency for west-northwest winds, with a systematic increase in wind speed with increasing height above the ground.

December 2006 Page 5C-12

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Fort Saskatchewan (2001 to 2005) Fort Saskatchewan (2002) NORTH NORTH

15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH

Ross Creek (2003 to 2005) Ross Creek (Aug 12 to Dec 31, 2002) NORTH NORTH

15% 20% 12% 16% 9% 12% 6% 8% 3% 4% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH Redwater (2003 to 2005) Redwater (Apr 26 to Dec 31, 2002) NORTH NORTH

10% 15% 8% 12% 6% 9% 4% 6% 2% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH Figure 5C-4: Comparison of Long Term and 2002 Measured Surface Winds

December 2006 Page 5C-13

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

Scotford (2003 to 2005) Scotford (May 14 to Dec 31, 2002) NORTH NORTH

15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH Lamont (2003 to 2005) Lamont (May 18 to Dec 31, 2002) NORTH NORTH

15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH

WIND SPEED (m/s)

>= 10.0 8.0 - 10.0 6.0 - 8.0 4.0 - 6.0 2.0 - 4.0 0.0 - 2.0 Calms: 0.00%

Figure 5C-4: Comparison of Long Term and 2002 Measured Surface Winds (cont’d)

December 2006 Page 5C-14

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Fort Saskatchewan (Measured) Fort Saskatchewan (Predicted) NORTH NORTH

15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH

Ross Creek (Measured) Ross Creek (Predicted) NORTH NORTH

20% 15% 16% 12% 12% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH Redwater (Measured) Redwater (Predicted) NORTH NORTH

15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH Figure 5C-5: Comparison of Measured and Predicted Surface Winds (2002)

December 2006 Page 5C-15

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

Scotford (Measured) Scotford (Predicted) NORTH NORTH

15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH Lamont (Measured) Lamont (Predicted)

NORTH NORTH

15% 15% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% WEST EAST WEST EAST

SOUTH SOUTH

WIND SPEED (m/s)

>= 10.0 8.0 - 10.0 6.0 - 8.0 4.0 - 6.0 2.0 - 4.0 0.0 - 2.0 Calms: 0.00%

Figure 5C-5: Comparison of Measured and Predicted Surface Winds (2002) (cont’d)

December 2006 Page 5C-16

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 Pibroch

RGE 26 RGE 25 RGE 24 RGE 23 RGE 22 RGE 21 RGE 20 RGE 19 RGE 18 RGE 17 Westlock W4M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6

Vimy TWP 59 Waskatenau

Re dw at er

829

TWP 58

R iv Busby er 0 Legal 0 0 0

0 Redwater Redwater 0 0 28 0 8 Natural Area 8 9 9 5 Lostpoint TWP 57 5 Lake 803 er 38 iv R 45 an ew ch Gibbons at Bon Accord sk 643 a TWP 56 S Be Morinville av h erh r t ill C e r reek iv o R N 0 0

0 n Bruderheim 0 0 28 eo 0 0 g 28A 0 6 r 15 6 9 tu 9 5 S 5 Lamont Namao TWP 55

Fort Saskatchewan 825 Astotin Lake 830 TWP 54 21 Elk Island National Park 0 0 0 0

0 Fawayik 0 0 0 4 4

9 Lake 9 5 Edmonton 16 TWP 53 5

TWP 52 Beaver Hills Beaverhill

0 Lake 0 0 Cooking 0 0 0

0 Lake 0 2 2 9 9

5 Devon 5

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000

Community Elevation (m ASL) Surface Wind Direction 790 Paved Access Unpaved Access 560 Railway Project Fence Line Urban Area Natural Area Protected Area

PREPARED FOR STURGEON UPGRADER 5 0 5 10 15

PREPARED BY Predicted Surface Wind Field Distance in Kilometres Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAFT DATE PROJECT SCALE Projection: 02/10/2006 OS1589 1:650,000 for Unstable Conditions UTM 12 NAD 83 REVISION DATE FIGURE ID 24/11/2006 (1300 LST July 15, 2002) Acknowledgements: AXYS-CAL-092-001 Original Drawing by: Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAWN CHECKED APPROVED FIGURE Consulting Ltd. Sources: Alberta Government, NRN AO MD MD 5C-6 320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 Pibroch

RGE 26 RGE 25 RGE 24 RGE 23 RGE 22 RGE 21 RGE 20 RGE 19 RGE 18 RGE 17 Westlock W4M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6

Vimy TWP 59 Waskatenau

Re dw at er

829

TWP 58

R iv Busby er 0 Legal 0 0 0

0 Redwater Redwater 0 0 28 0 8 Natural Area 8 9 9 5 Lostpoint TWP 57 5 Lake 803 er 38 iv R 45 an ew ch Gibbons at Bon Accord sk 643 a TWP 56 S Be Morinville av h erh r t ill C e r reek iv o R N 0 0

0 n Bruderheim 0 0 28 eo 0 0 g 28A 0 6 r 15 6 9 tu 9 5 S 5 Lamont Namao TWP 55

Fort Saskatchewan 825 Astotin Lake 830 TWP 54 21 Elk Island National Park 0 0 0 0

0 Fawayik 0 0 0 4 4

9 Lake 9 5 Edmonton 16 TWP 53 5

TWP 52 Beaver Hills Beaverhill

0 Lake 0 0 Cooking 0 0 0

0 Lake 0 2 2 9 9

5 Devon 5

320000 340000 360000 380000 400000

Community Elevation (m ASL) Surface Wind Direction 790 Paved Access Unpaved Access 560 Railway Project Fence Line Urban Area Natural Area Protected Area

PREPARED FOR STURGEON UPGRADER 5 0 5 10 15

PREPARED BY Predicted Surface Wind Field Distance in Kilometres Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAFT DATE PROJECT SCALE Projection: 02/10/2006 OS1589 1:650,000 for Unstable Conditions UTM 12 NAD 83 REVISION DATE FIGURE ID 24/11/2006 (0500 LST January 19, 2002) Acknowledgements: AXYS-CAL-092-002 Original Drawing by: Jacques Whitford-AXYS DRAWN CHECKED APPROVED FIGURE Consulting Ltd. Sources: Alberta Government, NRN AO MD MD 5C-7 Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

NORTH

20% 16% 12% 8% 4% WEST EAST

SOUTH 240 m

NORTH

20% 16% 12% 8% 4% WEST EAST

SOUTH 120 m

NORTH

15% 12% 9% 6% 3% WEST EAST

SOUTH 60 m

NORTH

15% WIND SPEED 12% (m/s) 9% 6% >= 10.0 3% 8.0 - 10.0 WEST EAST 6.0 - 8.0 4.0 - 6.0 2.0 - 4.0 0.0 - 2.0 SOUTH 30 m Calms: 0.00%

Figure 5C-8: Predicted Winds for Different Elevations at the Project Site

December 2006 Page 5C-19

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

5C.5 Temperature

5C.5.1 Ambient Air Temperature Table 5C-4 summarizes the historical seasonal and annual mean air temperatures in the study area. Annual average ambient temperatures range from 2.9 and 3.1°C. There is generally little variation in mean daily temperatures between the sites on a seasonal and annual basis. Historical mean daily temperatures are presented in Figure 5C-9 (top) for the four long-term stations in the area. Edmonton City Centre Airport experiences slightly warmer temperatures due to its urban location. Mean daily high temperatures are in the 15 to 17°C in the summer, and the mean daily lows are in the -10 to -14 °C in the winter. Figure 5C-9 (bottom) also compares the 2002 mean daily temperatures with the long-term Fort Saskatchewan values. While the summer of 2002 was similar to the long-term, the 2002 winter periods were warmer, and the 2002 spring was cooler than normal.

5C.5.2 Mixing Heights The presence of an elevated inversion can trap gaseous constituents in the layer between the surface and the inversion layer, which can produce higher ambient concentrations. Mixing heights are usually the highest (i.e., in the 1000 to 2000 m range) during daytime periods that are characterized by strong solar heating, and the lowest (i.e., about 100 m) during the night. High wind speeds can also produce well-mixed layers. Mixing heights are typically determined by analyzing vertical temperature profiles, which are not directly measured on a routine basis. A number of studies measuring mixing heights have been conducted in the Edmonton region: • Portelli (1977) reviewed temperature profiles from Stony Plain to calculate the mean maximum afternoon mixing heights. These were found to range from a low (i.e., 200 to 300 m) during December to February to a high (i.e., 2000 to 2400 m) during May to August. • Alberta Environment (Sakiyama et al. 1991) collected and analyzed temperature profiles collected at Ellerslie from the fall of 1977 to the fall of 1983. The data indicated similar mean maximum afternoon mixing heights (i.e., around 200 m) in the winter, but lower (i.e., 600 to 800 m) values in the spring/summer period. • Alberta Environment (Concord Environmental 1993) collected and analyzed temperature profiles collected near the Scotford Refinery from the spring of 1989 to the summer of 1992. The data also indicated similar mean maximum afternoon mixing heights (i.e., around 200 m) in the winter, and lower (i.e., 600 to 800 m) values in the spring/summer period. For this assessment, mixing heights were calculated by the CALMET preprocessor, and the mixing height predictions for the Project site are provided in Figure 5C-10. The results show: • Winter: The mean maximum values are in the 200 to 300 m range, which is consistent with the previous studies. • Spring: The mean maximum afternoon values are about 900 m, which is between the Portelli and the Alberta Environment values.

December 2006 Page 5C-20

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

• Summer: The mean maximum afternoon values are about 1500 m, which is less than the Portelli values and larger than the Alberta Environment values. The summer Alberta Environment values, however, may have not fully captured the time when the maxima would be expected. • Fall: The mean maximum afternoon values are about 600 m, which is similar to the Alberta Environment values (i.e., 500 m) and less than the Portelli values (i.e., about 900 m). The minimum values for each season are predicted to occur during the night. The CALMET model predicts minimum values in the 50 to 100 m range. This compares to the early morning values measured by Alberta Environment, which tends to be in the 200 to 300 m range.

Table 5C-4: Historical Seasonal and Annual Mean Daily Temperatures at Meteorological Stations in the Study Area Mean Daily Temperature (°C) Edmonton Fort International Edmonton City Edmonton Season Saskatchewan Airport Centre Airport Namao Airport Average Winter 1 -11.7 -11.8 -9.9 -10.9 -11.1 Spring 2 4.1 3.4 4.9 4.1 4.1 Summer 3 15.8 15.0 16.5 15.6 15.7 Fall 4 3.3 2.9 4.3 3.5 3.5 ANNUAL 2.9 2.4 3.9 3.1 3.1 SOURCE: Environment Canada (2006, Internet site).

NOTES: 1Winter months: December, January, February. 2Spring months: March, April, May. 3Summer months: June, July, August. 4Fall months: September, October, November.

December 2006 Page 5C-21

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

20

15

10 C)

o 5

0

Edmonton International -5

TEMPERATURE ( TEMPERATURE Edmonton Namao Edmonton City Centre -10 Fort Saskatchewan

-15

-20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25

20

15

10 C) o

5

0

Edmonton International (2002) TEMPERATURE ( TEMPERATURE -5 Edmonton Namao (2002) Edmonton City Centre (2002) -10 Fort Saskatchewan

-15

-20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MONTH

Figure 5C-9: Mean Monthly Average Temperatures at Fort Saskatchewan and Edmonton Airports

December 2006 Page 5C-22

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Figure 5C-10: Predicted Mixing Heights for Different Seasons and Times of Day

December 2006 Page 5C-23

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

5C.6 Precipitation The annual average precipitation (rainfall plus snowfall) rates based on data from 1971 to 2000 from Fort Saskatchewan and the regional airports are: • Fort Saskatchewan 460 mm (355 mm rainfall) • Edmonton International 483 mm (375 mm rainfall) • Edmonton Namao 466 mm (362 mm rainfall) • Edmonton City Centre 477 mm (366 mm rainfall) • Average 472 mm (365 mm rainfall) The amounts are similar for all four locations. Figure 5C-11 (top) compares the long-term and 2002 monthly mean total precipitation values measured at the Edmonton International Airport. The 2002 precipitation was about 55 percent of the normal rate. Specifically, the May and June periods were very dry when compared to the longer term averages. For the purpose of comparison, the precipitation rate interpolated from the MM5/CALMET data are also shown and it confirms that 2002 was a drier than normal year. Figure 5C-11 (bottom) compares the 2002 monthly mean total precipitation values measured at the three airports with the values interpolated for the Project site. While all three Airports indicate drier than normal conditions for the year, Edmonton Namao experienced a wetter June than the other airports, and Edmonton International Airport experienced a wetter July than the other airports. The site-interpolated values indicated more precipitation for a number of months and a drier August when compared to the airport locations. While the Upgrader site values are larger than the corresponding 2002 values from the Airports, they are still less than the expected long-term average.

December 2006 Page 5C-24

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

100

1971 to 2000 Edmonton International (Total = 483 mm/a) 2002 Edmonton International (Total = 267 mm/a) 80 2002 Sturgeon Upgrader Site (Total = 293 mm/a)

60

40 Total Precipitation(mm)

20

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

100

Edmonton International (Total = 267 mm/a)

Edmonton Namao Airport (Total = 226 mm/a) (2002) 80 Edmonton City Centre Airport (Total = 235 mm/a)

Sturgeon Upgrader Site (Total = 293 mm/a)

60

40 Total Precipitation(mm)

20

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Figure 5C-11: Comparison of Total Precipitation Measured at the Edmonton Airports and that Assumed at the Project Site

December 2006 Page 5C-25

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

5C.7 Atmospheric Stability Dispersion in the atmosphere results from atmospheric turbulence, which can be related to atmospheric stability. Meteorologists define six stability classes (referred to as the Pasquill-Gifford [PG] classes): • Stability classes A, B and C occur during the day, when the earth is heated by solar radiation. The air next to the earth is heated and tends to rise, enhancing vertical motions. This is referred to as an unstable atmosphere. • Stability classes E and F occur during the night, when the earth cools due to long-wave radiation losses. The air next to the earth cools, suppressing vertical motions. This is referred to as a stable atmosphere. • Stability class D is associated with completely overcast conditions (day or night) when there is no net heating or cooling of the earth, transitional periods between stable and unstable conditions, or during high wind speed periods (winds greater than 6 m/s [or 22 km/h]). This is referred to as a neutral atmosphere. Stability classes undergo a significant daily variation, and they also have a seasonal dependence. Stability classes can be determined from routine airport observations using the method devised by Turner (1963). A stability classification calculation algorithm is also included in the CALMET model. Table 5C-5 compares the stability class frequency distributions based on the airport/Turner approach with those estimated the CALMET model for the Project site. At the Project site, the CALMET preprocessor indicates more frequent unstable periods (30 percent versus 19 percent for the other sites), less frequent neutral periods (30 percent versus 45 percent for the other sites) and similarly frequent stable conditions (36 percent). The differences are more likely due to the two different methods used to estimate stability rather than actual differences between the sites. For example, Sedefian and Bennett (1980) indicate that the method that uses airport data can overestimate neutral conditions. This finding is reinforced by Skaggs and Robinson (1976) who found that the airport approach tends to overestimate neutral conditions and underestimate unstable conditions.

Table 5C-5: Stability Class Frequency Distributions at Various Locations Edmonton International Edmonton City Edmonton Namao PG Class Airport Centre Airport Airport Project Site A 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.3 B 6.4 5.7 5.9 12.2 C 14.5 14.2 12.4 15.3 D 44.5 45.1 44.4 29.7 E 15.1 14.6 16.7 19.8 F 19.5 20.3 20.3 20.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 NOTE: PG – Pasquill-Gifford

December 2006 Page 5C-26

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

5C.8 Relative Humidity Relative humidity is the ratio of the amount of water vapour in the air compared to the maximum amount of water vapour the air can hold before becoming saturated. Relative humidity depends on the water content of the air and the ambient air temperature. It is therefore the ratio expressed as percent of the air’s water vapour content to its capacity, as shown below: Relative Humidity = (Water Vapour Content) / (Water Vapour Capacity) Figure 5C-12 shows the mean relative humidity for each month at 6:00 and 15:00 local standard time (LST), as recorded at the three airports from 1971-2000. The mean 6:00 LST relative humidity fluctuates to its lowest point in late spring and its highest in late summer and early fall. The mean 15:00 LST annual relative humidity fluctuates to its lowest point in late spring and its highest in late fall and early winter. The higher morning values are due to the colder air temperatures, as colder air cannot hold as much water. Relative humidity is not recorded at the Fort Saskatchewan monitoring station.

100

90

06:00 80

70

60

50 15:00 40 RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%) HUMIDITY RELATIVE 30 Edmonton International

20 Edmonton Namao Edmonton City Centre 10

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MONTH

Figure 5C-12: Monthly Mean Relative Humidity at the Edmonton Airports

December 2006 Page 5C-27

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

5C.9 Visibility Figure 5C-13 presents the mean number of hours in each month for which reported visibilities fall into the following three categories at the three airports from 1971-2000 when the visibility less than 1 km, and when the visibility was between 1 and 9 km. Visibility is not recorded at the Fort Saskatchewan monitoring station. Visibilities less than 1 km tends to be more frequent in late fall, early winter (November to December) and least frequent during the summer (June and July). Visibilities between 1 and 9 km tend to be more frequent in late fall to spring period (November to March) and least frequent during the late spring to fall period (April to October).

120

100 Visibility between 1 and 9 km

Edmonton International 80 Edmonton Namao Edmonton City Centre

60 Hours per Month per Hours

40

20 Visibility less than 1 km

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MONTH

Figure 5C-13: Monthly Mean Visibilities at the Edmonton Airports

December 2006 Page 5C-28

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

5C.10 Solar Radiation Figure 5C-14 presents the mean daily global solar radiation values measured at the Edmonton monitoring station in the region. The highest global solar radiation values are observed in the months of May through July while the lowest values are recorded in the months of December and January. Alberta has some of the sunniest skies in Canada. Summer is the sunniest season, partly because the northern parts of Alberta can experience up to 18 hours of daylight in the summer months. The amount of annual bright sunshine is in excess of 2000 hours in almost all areas of the province (Environment Canada 1990).

300

250

) 200 2

150

Solar Radiation (W/m 100

50

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Figure 5C-14: Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation at Various Monitoring Stations in the Study Area

5C.11 CALMET Technical Options The technical options used in running CALMET are entered through a CALMET control file. Previously determined sensitivity parameters were adopted for the Project. The input parameters for the CALMET control file used in the Project modelling assessment are provided in Tables 5C-6 to 5C-13.

December 2006 Page 5C-29

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

Table 5C-6: Input Groups in the CALMET Control File Applicable to Input Group Description Project 0 Input and output file names Yes 1 General run control parameters Yes 2 Grid control parameters Yes 3 Output Options Yes 4 Meteorological data options Yes 5 Wind Field Options and Parameters Yes 6 Mixing Height, Temperature and Precipitation Parameters Yes 7 Surface meteorological station parameters Yes 8 Upper air meteorological station parameters No 9 Precipitation parameters No

Table 5C-7: CALMET Model Options Groups 0 and 1

Input Group 0: Input and Output File Names Parameter Default Project Comment NUSTA - 0 Number of upper air stations NOWSTA - 0 Number of overwater met stations MM3D - 1 Number of MM4/MM5/3D.DAT files NIGF - 0 Number of IGF-CALMET.DAT files

Input Group 1: General run control parameters Parameter Default Project Comment IBYR - 2002 Starting year IBMO - 1 Starting month IBDY - 1 Starting day IBHR - 0 Starting hour IBSEC - 0 Starting second IEYR - 2003 Ending year IEMO - 1 Ending month IEDY - 1 Ending day IEHR - 0 Ending hour IESEC - 0 Ending second ABTZ - UTC-0700 UTC time zone NSECDT 3600 3600 Length of modeling time-step (seconds) IRTYPE 1 1 Run type LCALGRD T T Special data fields ITEST 2 2 Flag to stop run after SETUP phase

December 2006 Page 5C-30

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Table 5C-8: CALMET Model Options Group 2: Grid control parameters Parameter Default Project Comment PMAP UTM UTM Map projection IUTMZN - 12 UTM Zone UTMHEM N N Hemisphere for UTM projection DATUM WGS-84 NAR-C Datum-region for output coordinate NX - 100 No. X grid cells NY - 100 No. Y grid cells DGRIDKM - 1. Grid spacing (km) XORIGKM - 307 Reference coordinate of SW corner of grid cell (1,1) -X coordinate (km) YORIGKM - 5917 Reference coordinate of SW corner of grid cell (1,1) -Y coordinate (km) NZ - 8 Vertical grid definition: Number of vertical layers ZFACE - 0,20,40,80, Vertical grid definition: Cell face heights in arbitrary vertical 160,320,600, grid (m) 1400,2600

Table 5C-9: CALMET Model Options Group 3: Output Options Parameter Default Project Comment Disk Output: LSAVE T T Save met. Fields in the unformatted output files IFORMO 1 1 Type of unformatted output file Line Printer Output: LPRINT F T Print meteorological fields IPRINF 1 12 Print intervals (hrs) IUVOUT (NZ) 0 1,0,0,0,0, Specify which layers of U,V wind component to print 0,0,0 IWOUT (NZ) 0 0,0,0,0,0, Specify which level of the w wind component to print 0,0,0 ITOUT (NZ) 0 1,0,0,0,0, Specify which levels of the 3-D temperature field to print 0,0,0 Meteorological fields to print: Print? 0 = no print Variable 1 = print Comment STABILITY 1 PGT stability USTAR 0 Friction velocity MONIN 0 Monin-Obukhov length MIXHT 1 Mixing height WSTAR 0 Convective velocity scale PRECIP 1 Precipitation rate SENSHEAT 0 Sensible heat flux CONVZI 0 Convective mixing height

December 2006 Page 5C-31

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

Table 5C-9: CALMET Model Options Group 3: Output Options (cont’d) Parameter Default Project Comment Testing and debug print options for micrometeorological module: LDB F F Print input meteorological data and internal variables NN1 1 1 First time step for which debug data are printed NN2 1 1 Last time step for which debug data are printed LDBCST F F Print distance to land internal variables Testing and debug print options for wind field module: IOUTD 0 0 Control variable for writing the test/debug wind fields to disk files NZPRN2 1 0 Number of levels, starting at surface, to print IPR0 0 0 Print the interpolated wind components IPR1 0 0 Print the terrain adjusted surface wind components IPR2 0 0 Print the smoothed wind components and the initial divergence fields IPR3 0 0 Print the final wind speed and direction IPR4 0 0 Print the final divergence fields IPR5 0 0 Print the winds after kinematic effects are added IPR6 0 0 Print the winds after the Froude number adjustment is made IPR7 0 0 Print the winds after slope flows are added IPR8 0 0 Print the final wind field components

Table 5C-10: CALMET Model Options Group 4: Meteorological Data Options

Parameter Default Project Comment NOOBS 0 1 No observation mode Number of Surface & Precipitation Meteorological Stations: NSSTA - 6 Number of surface stations NPSTA - -1 Number of precipitation stations Cloud Data Options: ICLOUD 0 3 Gridded cloud fields File Formats: IFORMS 2 2 Surface meteorological data file format IFORMP 2 2 Precipitation data file format IFORMC 2 2 Cloud data file format

December 2006 Page 5C-32

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Table 5C-11: CALMET Model Option Group 5: Wind Field Options and Parameters

Parameter Default Project Comment Wind Field Model Options: IWFCOD 1 1 Model selection variables IFRADJ 1 1 Compute Froude number adjustment IKINE 0 0 Compute kinematic effects IOBR 0 0 Use O’Brien procedure for adjustment of the vertical velocity ISLOPE 1 1 Compute slope flow effects IEXTRP -4 -4 Extrapolate surface wind observations to upper layers (similarity theory used with layer 1 data at upper air stations ignored) ICALM 0 0 Extrapolate surface winds even if calm BIAS 0 0,0,0,0,0,0, Layer-dependent biases modifying the weights of surface and 0,0 upper air stations RMIN2 4 -1.0 Minimum distance from nearest upper air station to surface station for which extrapolation of surface winds at surface station will be allowed IPROG 0 14 Use gridded prognostic wind field model output fields as input to the diagnostic wind field model (from MM5.DAT) ISTEPPG 1 1 Timestep (hours) of the prognostic model input data IGFMET 0 0 Use coarse CALMET fields as initial guess fields Radius of Influence Parameters: LVARY F F Use varying radius of influence RMAX1 - 12 Maximum radius of influence over land in the surface layer (km) RMAX2 - 12 Maximum radius of influence over land aloft (km) RMAX3 - 5 Maximum radius of influence over water Other Wind Field Input Parameters: RMIN 0.1 0.1 Minimum radius of influence used in the wind field interpolation (km) TERRAD - 15 Radius of influence of terrain features (km) R1 - 2 Relative weighting of the first guess field and observations in the surface layer (km) R2 - 2 Relative weighting of the first guess field and observations in the layers aloft (km) RPROG - 0 Relative weighting parameter of the prognostic wind field data (km) DIVLIM 5.0E-6 5.0E-6 Maximum acceptable divergence in the divergence minimization procedure

December 2006 Page 5C-33

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

Table 5C-11: CALMET Model Option Group 5: Wind Field Options and Parameters (cont’d)

Parameter Default Project Comment NITER 50 50 Maximum number of iterations in the divergence minimization procedure NSMTH (NZ) 2, 2,7,7,14,14, Number of passes in the smoothing procedure (mxnz-1) 28,28,28 *4 NINTR2 99 99,99,99,99, Maximum number of stations used in each layer for the 99,99,99,0 interpolation of data to a grid point CRITFN 1.0 1.0 Critical Froude number ALPHA 0.1 0.1 Empirical factor controlling the influence of kinematic effects FEXTR2(NZ) 0.0 0.,0.,0.,0., Multiplicative scaling factor for extrapolation of surface 0.,0.,0.,0. observations to upper layers Barrier Information: NBAR 0 0 Number of barriers to interpolation of the wind fields KBAR NZ 12 Level (1 to NZ) up to which barriers apply XBBAR - 0 X coordinate of beginning of each barrier YBBAR - 0 Y coordinate of beginning of each barrier XEBAR - 0 X coordinate of ending of each barrier YEBAR - 0 Y coordinate of ending of each barrier Diagnostic Module Data Input Options: IDIOPT1 0 0 Surface temperature (0 = compute internally from hourly surface observation) ISURFT - 2 Surface meteorological station to use for the surface temperature IDIOPT2 0 0 Domain-averaged temperature lapse (0 = compute internally from hourly surface observation) IUPT - 0 Upper air station to use for the domain-scale lapse rate ZUPT 200 200 Depth through which the domain-scale lapse rate is computed (m) IDIOPT3 0 0 Domain-averaged wind components IUPWND -1 -1 Upper air station to use for the domain-scale winds ZUPWND 1., 1000 1., 2200 Bottom and top of layer through which domain-scale winds are computed (m) IDIOPT4 0 0 Observed surface wind components for wind field module IDIOPT5 0 0 Observed upper air wind components for wind field module Lake Breeze Information: LLBREZE F F Use lake breeze module NBOX - 0 Number of lake breeze regions XG1 - 0 X Grid line 1 defining the region of interest

December 2006 Page 5C-34

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Table 5C-11: CALMET Model Option Group 5: Wind Field Options and Parameters (cont’d)

Parameter Default Project Comment XG2 - 0 X Grid line 2 defining the region of interest YG1 - 0 Y Grid line 1 defining the region of interest YG2 - 0 Y Grid line 2 defining the region of interest XBCST - 0 X Point defining the coastline in kilometres (Straight line) YBCST - 0 Y Point defining the coastline in kilometres (Straight line) XECST - 0 X Point defining the coastline in kilometres (Straight line) YECST - 0 Y Point defining the coastline in kilometres (Straight line) NLB - 0 Number of stations in the region METBXID - 0 Station ID’s in the region

Table 5C-12: CALMET Model Option Group 6: Mixing Height, Temperature and Precipitation Parameters

Parameter Default Project Comment Empirical Mixing Height Constants: CONSTB 1.41 1.41 Neutral, mechanical equation CONSTE 0.15 0.15 Convective mixing height equation CONSTN 2400 2400 Stable mixing height equation CONSTW 0.16 0.16 Over water mixing height equation FCORIO 1.0E-4 1.2E-04 Absolute value of Coriolis (l/s) Spatial Averaging of Mixing Heights: IAVEZI 1 1 Conduct spatial averaging MNMDAV 1 3 Maximum search radius in averaging (grid cells) HAFANG 30 30 Half-angle of upwind looking cone for averaging ILEVZI 1 1 Layer of winds used in upwind averaging Convective Mixing Heights Options: IMIXH 1 1 Method to compute the convective mixing height (Maul- Carson) THRESHL 0.05 0.05 Threshold buoyancy flux required to sustain convective mixing height growth overland (W/m3) THRESHW 0.05 0.05 Threshold buoyancy flux required to sustain convective mixing height growth overwater (W/m3) ITWPROG 0 0 Option for overwater lapse rates used in convective mixing height growth (1=use prognostic lapse rates) ILUOC3D 16 16 Land use category ocean in 3D.DAT datasets

December 2006 Page 5C-35

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

Table 5C-12: CALMET Model Option Group 6: Mixing Height, Temperature and Precipitation Parameters (cont’d)

Parameter Default Project Comment Other Mixing Height Variables: DPTMIN 0.001 0.001 Minimum potential temperature lapse rate in the stable layer above the current convective mixing height (K/m) DZZI 200 200 Depth of layer above current convective mixing height through which lapse rate is computed (m) ZIMIN 50 50 Minimum overland mixing height (m) ZIMAX 3000 3200 Maximum overland mixing height (m) ZIMINW 50 100 Minimum overwater mixing height (m) ZIMAXW 3000 3200 Maximum overwater mixing height (m) Overwater Surface Fluxes Method and Parameters: ICOARE 10 10 COARE with no wave parameterization DSHELF 0 0 Coastal/Shallow water length scale (km) IWARM 0 0 COARE warm layer computation ICOOL 0 0 COARE cool skin layer computation Relative Humidity Parameters: IRHPROG 0 1 3D relative humidity from observations or from prognostic data Temperature Parameters: ITPROG 0 1 3D temperature from observations or from prognostic data IRAD 1 1 Interpolation type TRADKM 500 500 Radius of influence for temperature interpolation (km) NUMTS 5 6 Maximum number of stations to include in temperature interpolation IAVET 1 1 Conduct spatial averaging of temperatures (1 = yes) TGDEFB -0.0098 -0.0098 Default temperature gradient below the mixing height over water (K/m) TGDEFA -0.0045 -0.0045 Default temperature gradient above the mixing height over water (K/m) JWAT1 - 55 Beginning land use categories for temperature interpolation over water JWAT2 - 55 Ending land use categories for temperature interpolation over water Precipitation Interpolation Parameters: NFLAGP 2 2 Method of interpolation SIGMAP 100 500 Radius of Influence (km) CUTP 0.01 0.01 Minimum Precipitation rate cut-off (mm/h)

December 2006 Page 5C-36

Volume 2: Environmental and Sturgeon Upgrader Project Socio-economic Impact Assessment Appendix 5C: Meteorology

Table 5C-13: CALMET Model Option Group 7: Surface Meteorological Station Parameters

Anemometer Name ID X coordinate Y coordinate Time zone Height (km) (km) RDWT 14001 326.260 5968.154 7 10 FTSK 14002 353.223 5952.316 7 10 RCRK 14003 354.895 5954.151 7 10 LMT 14004 376.285 5958.423 7 10 SCTF 14005 363.306 5962.031 7 10

5C.12 References Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). 1997. Canadian Ecodistrict Climate Normals (December 1997 Revised). Available at: http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/nsdb/ecostrat/ district/climate.html. Clean Air Strategic Alliance (CASA). 2006. Data Warehouse. Data Reports. Available at: http://www.casadata.org. Accessed: 2006. Concord Environmental Corporation. 1993. Summary of Surface and Upper Air Data From the FSRIA Fort Saskatchewan Meteorological Station, 1989-1992. Prepared for Environmental Quality Monitoring Branch, Alberta Environment and Fort Saskatchewan Regional Industrial Association. Environment Canada. 1990. The Climate of Canada. Canadian Publishing Centre. ISSNO-660- 13459-4. 176 pp. Environment Canada. 2006. Canadian Climate Normals on Averages 1971–2000. Available at: http://climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climate_normals/index_e.html. Accessed: 2006. Portelli, R.V. 1977. Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds and Ventilation Coefficients for Canada. Climatological Studies, Number 31. Fisheries and Environment Canada and Atmospheric Environment. Sakiyama, S.K., R.H. Myrick, R.P. Angle and H.S. Sandhu. 1991. Mixing heights and inversions from minisonde ascents at Edmonton/Ellerlie. Alberta Environment, Edmonton, AB. 59 pp. Scire J.S., F.R. Robe, M. E. Ferneau, and R.J. Yamartino. 2000, A User’s Guide for the CALMET Meteorological Model. Earth Tech Inc., Jan. 2000, p 332. Sedefian, Leon and Edward Bennett 1980. A Comparison of Turbulence Classification Schemes. Atmospheric Environment 14:741-750. Skaggs, L. and E. Robinson 1976. A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Atmospheric Stability and Diffusion Coefficients. Air Pollution Meteorology, March, 1977: 97-100. Turner, D.B. 1963. A Diffusion Model for an Urban Area. Journal of Applied Meteorology. 3:83-91.

December 2006 Page 5C-37

Sturgeon Upgrader Project Volume 2: Environmental and Appendix 5C: Meteorology Socio-economic Impact Assessment

December 2006 Page 5C-38