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Assessing the Resilience of Water Supply Systems in Oman

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Assessing the Resilience of Water Supply Systems in Oman Assessing the Resilience of Water Supply Systems in Oman A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Kassim Mana Abdullah Al Jabri School of Science, Engineering and Technology Abertay University. April 2016 i Assessing the Resilience of Water Supply Systems in Oman Kassim Mana Abdullah Al Jabri A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Abertay Dundee for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy April 2016 I certify that this is the true and accurate copy of the thesis approved by the examiners Signed…………………………… Date……………………………. i Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere recognition to my principal supervisor Professor David Blackwood, without whose quality and friendly supervision this work would not have come to fruition. My special regards to my second supervisor Professor Joseph Akunna, for his support and encouragement. I am also particularly grateful to Professor Chris Jefferies who advised and helped me a lot in the beginning of my research work Sincere regards also due to Dr. Majed Abusharkh, who provided efficient advice during the field work and collection and analysis of data in Oman. I would like to thank my colleagues in Public Authority for Electricity and Water (PAEW), Oman who helped me develop my research and provided me with the necessary information and data for the research work. My sincere thanking goes to my wife and my sons and daughters for their suffering with me and for their love, encouragement, sacrifice whilst studying in the UK since 2006 and throughout until graduation from the PhD. ii Abstract Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. iii A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work. iv Table of Contents Title page………………………………………………………………………… i Acknowledgements……………………………………………………… ii Abstract…………………………………………………………………… iii Contents…………………………………………………………………... v List of Table………………………………………………………………. xiv List of figure………………………………………………………………. xvii List of Abbreviations……………………………………………………... xix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION………………………..………………………. 1 1.1 GENERAL BACKGROUND…………………..………………….……… 1 1.2 RISK EVALUATION AND EMERGENCY PLANNING..……..…......... 3 1.3 PROBLEM STATEMENT………………………………………………… 5 1.4 RESEARCH AIM and OBJECTIVES..……………………………..…… 7 1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS……………………………………….. 8 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW……………..……………….………... 10 2.1 GENERAL BACKGROUND………………………….…………..…........ 10 2.2 LOSSES FROM WATER SYSTEMS………………………………...... 11 2.2.1 OVERVIEW……..………………………………………………..……… 11 2.2.2 DEFINITION OF NON REVIENUE WATER……..…………………. 12 2.2.3 COMPONENTS OF NRW AND WATER LOSSES…...…….……… 13 2.2.4 IWA SYSTEM OF PRERFORMANCE INDICATORS……….……… 15 2.2.5 BENEFITS OF REDUCING NRW…..…………………………….….. 16 2.2.6 CAUSES OF WATER LOSSES……………….………………….…… 17 2.2.7 STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH WATER LOSSES…………… 19 2.2.8 ASSESSMENT OF WATER LOSSES (WATER AUDIT)…………. 20 v 2.2.8.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF A WATER AUDIT……………….……… 20 2.2.8.2 WATER AUDIT METHODOLOGY AND SOFTWARE…………….. 20 2.3 RESILIENCE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE…………………..... 21 2.3.1 OVERVIEW………………………..………………………………...……. 21 2.3.2 RESILIENCE OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS…………………...... 23 2.3.3 ENHANCING THE RESILIANCE OF WATER SYSTEMS……....... 26 2.3.4 WATER SYSTEM RESILIENCE TOOLS…………..……………….. 27 2.3.5 HAZARDS, RISKS AND RESILIENCE……………………………….. 29 2.3.6 A METHODOLOGY FOR USING RISK SCORES TO UNDERSTANDING RESLIANANCE IN WATER SYSTEMS……. 32 2.3.7 POTENTIAL HAZARDS TO WATER SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACTS... 33 2.3.8 TYPES OF DISASTERS AND THEIR EFFECTS…………………… 34 2.3.8.1 EARTHQUAKES …………………………………………………….. 34 2.3.8.2 HURRICANES……………………………….……………………….. 35 2.3.8.3 FLOODS………………………….……………………………………. 38 2.3.9 MAN MADE HAZARDS……………………………………………….. 40 2.4 RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT…………………………… 40 2.4.1 WATER SAFETY PLANS……………………………………………… 40 2.4.2 RISK DEFINITION……………………………………………………… 42 2.4.3 RISK ASSESSMENT……….………………………………………. … 42 2.4.4 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS…………………………………….. 44 2.4.4.1 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………... 44 2.4.4.2 ASSESSMENT OF RISK………………………………..…………… 45 2.4.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS………………………….…………………………... 46 2.4.4.4 RISK EVLUATION ………………………………….………………... 49 2.4.4.5 RISK REDUCTION/CONTROL……………………………………... 49 vi 2.5. METHODS OF RISK ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT ……......... 50 2.5.1 RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS…………….…………..….............. 50 2.5.2 APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS……………………………………...……….....….......................... 51 2.5.3 RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH SELECTED……….………..... 55 2.5.4. COARSE RISK ANALYSIS (CRA)……………………………........... 55 2.6 RISKS TO WATER FACILITIES………….………..………………...... 57 2.6.1 INTRODUCTION ……………………………………..…………………. 57 2.6.2 MAJOR DESALINATION PLANT THREATS………………………... 59 2.6.3 MAJOR NETWORK THREATS………….……….…………………..... 60 2.6.4 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS……………………………………… 61 2.7 EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN……………………………………… 62 2.7.1 THE REQUIREMENT FOR AN EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN……. 62 2.7.2 MISSION STATEMENT……………………………………………….. 62 2.7.3 INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE 63 PLANS FOR WATER SUPPLY…….………………….……………………… 2.7.3.1 STATUS OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND RISK 63 MITIGATION IN THE USA………………………………..…..……………….. 2.7.3.1 STATUS OF DPRM IN THE PHILIPPINES………………………… 63 2.7.3.3 STATUS OF DPRM IN TANZANIA……..…………………………... 64 2.7.3.4 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ON INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE…. 65 2.8 SUMMARY…………………………………………………………………. 65 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION………..…..…. 67 3.1 GENERAL BACKGROUND…………………………………………… 67 3.2 RESEARCH APPROACH………………………………………………... 67 vii 3.2.1 WORKSHOPS AND INTERVIEWS AS MEANS OF GATHERING DATA…………………………………………………………………………….. 69 3.3 RESEARCH TECHNIQUES………………….………………………… 71 3.3.1 INTRODUCTION…………..………………..……………………......... 71 3.3.2 FIELD WORK AND OBSERVATION………………………………… 72 3.3.3 QUESTIONNAIRES AND INTERVIEWS…………………………….. 72 3.3.4 WORKSHOP…………………………………………………………… 73 3.4 METHODOLOGY OF THE WATER AUDIT…………………………. 75 3.5 DETERMINATION OF NON-REVENUE WATER…………………… 78 3.5.1 DATA SHEET……………………………………………………………. 78 3.5.2 SEMI STRUTURED AND UNSTRUCTURED INTERVIEWS…….. 80 3.5.3 INTERVIEWING KEY PAEW STAFF………………….……………. 81 3.5.4 REVIEWING AVAILABLE DATA WITHIN PAEW………………... 82 3.6 RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLGY ………………………………. 82 3.6.1 INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………….. 82 3.6.2 ESTIMATION OF RISKS; COARSE RISK ANALYSIS…………….. 84 3.6.3 LIKELIHOODS, CONSEQUENCES AND RISK TABLES………….. 85 3.7 DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN…… 90 3.8 CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………... 90 CHAPTER 4 CASE STUDY………………………………………………….. 91 4.1 GENERAL BACKGROUND………………………………………………. 91 4.2 THE STUDY AREA (OMAN)…………………………………………..... 92 4.2.1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………… 92 4.2.2 THE GEOGRAPHY OF OMAN ……………………………………….. 92 4.2.2.1 LOCATION AND TOPOGRAPHY…………………………………… 92 4.2.2.2 CLIMATE ………………………………………….…………………… 94 viii 4.2.2.3 POPULATION ……………………………………………..………….. 94 4.2.2.4 ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS…………………………………………… 94 4.2.2.5 WATER AVAILABILITY………………………………………………
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