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Slim schutten of domweg doorsluizen? RAMS-optimalisatie van de nieuwe Panamasluizen ir. Arno Willems Iv-Infra Introduction 1993 TU Delft Applied Mathematics Probability, Risk and Statistics 1999 Aveco de Bondt Civil Engineering 2001 Ministry of Infrastructure & the Environment Risk Analysis 2006 Iv-Infra Risk Analysis & Contract Management Introduction Iv-Infra: • Consulting engineers for infrastructure - steel and mechanical engineering - concrete design and detailing - road engineering - field inspections & spatial measurements - project management - site supervision - risk & reliability engineering • ±180 employees • Papendrecht, Amsterdam, Nieuwegein • Part of Iv-Groep (± 1000 employees) Introduction • Storm surge barriers IHNC New Orleans, Maeslantkering, HVVOS, Ramspol, Houston barrier • Lock complexes Julianasluis, Zeedoksluis, RINK, VONK, MWW, IJmuiden, Post-Panamax locks • Steel & concrete structures Campus Maastricht, Rotating tower • Offshore Ithaca Jacky Wellhead Platform, Heerema New Build Vessel, Flexible Fall Pipe Contents • La República de Panamá • History and Motive for the Third Set of Panama Locks • RAMS-engineering of the Third Set of Panama Locks • Trip through Construction Panama • Regime: Republic • Surface: 75,517 km2 (3% water) • Residents: 3.6 million (± 50/km2) • Monetary Unit: Balboa, US$ • Religion: 80% Roman Catholic; 15% Protestant • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $ 52.13 billion • 6% Agriculture & Fisheries •16% Industry •78% Services (Canal, banks, Colon Free Zone, assurance, container port, flagship registry, tourism) • Unemployment rate: 5 to 6% • Between Atlantic Ocean (Caribbean Sea) and Pacific Ocean (Gulf of Panama) Panama Panama Panama Panama City seen from the Pacific Ocean Panama History History Ferdinand Marie de Lesseps (Versailles, 19 november 1805 – La Chênaie, 7 december 1894) History Alexandre Gustave Eiffel, (Dijon, 15 december 1832 – Parijs, 27 december 1923) History • In 1881, a French company headed by Ferdinand de Lesseps, a former diplomat who developed Egypt’s Suez Canal, began digging a canal across Panama. • The project was plagued by poor planning, engineering problems and tropical diseases that killed appr. 22,000 workers. De Lesseps intended to build the canal at sea level, without locks, like the Suez Canal, but the excavation process proved far more difficult than anticipated. • Gustave Eiffel was then hired to create locks for the canal. • De Lesseps-led company went bankrupt in 1889. At the time, the French had sunk more than $260 million into the canal venture and excavated more than 70 million cubic yards of earth. History • The Americans finished the Panama Canal between 1904-1914 ($375 million; ± 5,600 casualties) • 31 december 1999: U.S.A. transfered the Canal to Panama Canal Authorities (ACP) John Frank Stevens Panama Canal •Gamboa Panama Canal Panama Canal Chagres Gamboa Panama Canal Panama Canal Gatun Lock Panama Canal • 48 mile (± 80 km) canal length containing 3 sets of locks • differential head ≈ 85 ft (26m) on both Atlantic and Pacific side • ±14,000 vessel passages per year • ACP turnover: > $ 2.6 billion FY 2014: $2.65 billion FY 2015: $2.61 billion PC/UMS: Panama Canal/Universal Measurement System is based on net tonnage, modified for Panama Canal purposes. PC/UMS is based on a mathematical formula to calculate a vessel's total volume; a PC/UMS net ton is equivalent to 100 cubic feet of capacity Panama Canal • The average toll is around US$ 54,000 for a canal passage. • The most expensive regular toll for canal passage to date was charged on April 14, 2010 to the cruise ship Norwegian Pearl, which paid US$ 375,600. • The smallest toll ever charged at the canal, incidentally, was 36 cents to a swimmer, Richard Halliburton, in 1928. • The highest fee for priority passage charged through the Transit Slot Auction System was US$ 220,300, paid on August 24, 2006, by the Panamax tanker Erikoussa, bypassing a 90-ship queue waiting for the end of maintenance works on the Gatun locks, thus avoiding a seven-day delay. The normal fee would have been just US$ 13,430. Forecasting Forecasting Forecasting • ACP predicts in 2004/2005 that the volume of cargo transiting the canal will grow by an average of 3% per year, doubling the 2005 tonnage by 2025. • The canal would reach its maximum capacity between 2009 and 2012. • Then-Panamanian President Martín Torrijos formally proposed the Panama Canal Expansion project on 24 April 2006, saying it would transform Panama into a First World country. • A national referendum approved the proposal by a 76.8 percent majority on 22 October 2006, and the Cabinet and National Assembly followed suit. However… Marcel Timmer (Veendam, 1970) is CPB Wereldhandelsmonitor Professor Economic Growth and Development at the Rijksuniversiteit Groningen. Around the world Staircase Locks The flight of 16 locks at Caen Hill on the Kennet and Avon Canal, Great-Britain Diagonal Lock Camp Hill, Birmingham Ship Elevators Falkirk Wheel, Schotland Strépy-Thieu, Luxembourg Saint-Louis-Arzviller, France Hydrostatick Caisson Lock Tilting Lock (Kantelsluis) Blubber sluice (Gelsluis) The Gelsluis can resist a water difference of ca. 5 meter. Balgsluis Innovative gates Composite Lock Gates (Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRP). Sluis III Wilhelminakanaal in Tilburg Folding Lock Gates Around the world Around the world ACP wants an extra (3d) set of 2 navigation locks with: • 3 chambers and 4 sets of double rolling gates, mechanically driven (winches) Berendrechtsluis, • 2-sided lock culverts with side-in-/ Antwerp (Belgium), outlets and cross-culverts double rolling (conduits) under chamber gates • Tug boats instead of locomotives. • Lock Slüsfeld, Mittelland canal, Germany. Due to the use of 10 water saving basins, only 10,500 m³ of water (instead of 42,000 m³) are used. • Rhine-Main-Danube canal with 13 saving locks out of a total of 16 locks. Canal Expansion The Panama Canal Expansion Program: A: Atlantic entrance deepening and widening B: Atlantic Post-Panamax locks C: Rising Gatun Lake’s maximum operation level D: Deepening and widening of Gatun Lake and Culebra Cut navigational channels E: Post-Panamax locks Pacific access channel F: Pacific Post-Panamax locks G: Pacific entrance deepening and widening Investment: $5.25 billion Third Set of Locks The Panama Canal Expansion Program: A: Atlantic entrance deepening and widening B: Atlantic Post-Panamax locks C: Rising Gatun Lake’s maximum operation level D: Deepening and widening of Gatun Lake and Culebra Cut navigational channels E: Post-Panamax locks Pacific access channel F: Pacific Post-Panamax locks G: Pacific entrance deepening and widening Investment: $3.2 billion Third Set of Locks The design-build contract for • Sacyr Vallehermoso implementation of the Third Set of • Impregilo Locks project was awarded by the • Jan de Nul Panama Canal Authority (ACP) to • Constructura international consortium Grupo Unidos Urbana, SA (CUSA) Por el Canal (GUPC) in July 2009. Providing support to GUPC for design, Iv-Infra is part of the design joint venture, CICP Consultores Internacionales, in partnership with MWH and TetraTech. The $3.2 billion Third Set of Locks project will double the capacity of the Canal. Third Set of Locks 300 ha forest felling Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Third Set of Locks Water Saving Basins: • Gravity system, no pumps used. • Three water saving basins per chamber. • The new locks will save 60% of the water per lockage. • Whereas the existing locks use 52 million gallons (197 million litres, 80 Olympic pools) with each use, the new locks use 48 million gallons (182 million litres, 73 Olympic pools). Third Set of Locks 57m x 33.6m x 10m 4,000 tons Royal Palace Amsterdam Lock Gate Panama Canal Availability Requirement Employer’s Key Availability Requirement: “§ Each lock complex shall be operational at least 99.6% of the time during each month. Lane service outages for scheduled maintenance, incidental breakdowns and unscheduled maintenance, and emergency repairs shall not exceed 0.4% of the time each month (less than 3 hrs/month). The contractor shall assume that outages resulting from Force Majeure will be excluded from the calculation of the required lane availability.” (Force Majeure: Act of God) RAMS analyse • Reliability • Availability • Maintainability • Safety RAMS Reliability (betrouwbaarheid) De kans dat de vereiste functie wordt uitgevoerd onder gegeven omstandigheden gedurende een bepaald tijdsinterval. •Start •Eind •Start •[ Tijd ] •Ritje van A naar B •Ritje van B …. •Falen motor tijdens missie: distributieriem gebroken RAMS Availability (beschikbaarheid) 1. De fractie van de totale tijd dat de vereiste functie kan worden uitgevoerd. 2. De waarschijnlijkheid dat de vereiste functie op een gegeven willekeurig moment kan worden uitgevoerd onder gegeven omstandigheden. •Niet beschikbaar •Start •Eind •Start •[ Tijd ] •Ritje van A naar B •Ritje van B …. •Accu leeg •Licht laten branden bij einde rit RAMS Maintainability (onderhoudbaarheid) De kans dat de activiteiten voor onderhoud mogelijk zijn binnen de hiervoor vastgestelde tijden, onder gegeven omstandigheden om de vereiste functie te kunnen (blijven) uitvoeren. • “Vastgestelde tijden” worden vaak bepaald door de eisen aan niet-beschikbaarheid • Van belang zijn maximale reparatie- en responstijden, die weer bepaald worden door o.a: - detectie en diagnose van storingen - bereikbaarheid van componenten - levertijden
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