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SLERC 2017 Proceedings SRI LANKA FORUM OF UNIVERSITY ECONOMISTS SRI LANKA ECONOMICS RESEARCH CONFERENCE (SLERC) 2017 PROCEEDINGS Volume VI Editorial Board Chief Editor Professor Y.M. Wickramasinghe Co-Editors Dr. P.M.B. Jayathilake Dr. R.P.I.R. Prasanna Dr. P.S.K. Rajapakshe Dr. D.M.C. Dasanayake Dr. S.A.U. Niranjala Editorial Assistants Ms. R.M.M.D. Pemarathna Ms. A.K. Anjala Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Mihintale, Sri Lanka. 23rd and 24th November 2017 Copyright © November 2017 Sri Lanka Forum of University Economists National Library of Sri Lanka – Cataloguing-In-Publication Data Proceedings of the Sri Lanka Economics Research Conference 2017 ISSN 2279-2406 Published by Sri Lanka Forum of University Economists (SLFUE) Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka. Tel: +94 252266643 Web: www.slfue.org All rights reserved. No Part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher. Printed by Nethwin Printers (Pvt) Ltd., No. 832, "Dalanda Sevane Api" Foundation, Gatambe Junction, Kandy Tel / Fax: +9481 2 386908 This publication is sponsored by National Science People’s Bank Bank of Ceylon Foundation Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka ii Message of the Vice Chancellor Rajarata University of Sri Lanka As the Vice Chancellor of Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, it is a privilege for me to write this message for the 6th International Conference of the Sri Lanka Forum of University Economists, hosted by the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka with the aim of bringing the university economists together to present and discuss their research findings and express their opinions on contemporary economic issues. It is evident that, the organizers of the conference have identified the theme as ‘Strengthening the Economic Resilience for Inclusive Growth’ and is timely importance. It is our experience that, severe economic recessions and financial crisis are frequent phenomena and their persistent effects have widen the inequality in the society. Under these circumstances, identifying measures to minimize the risk of such events through economic resilience and sustainable growth have identified as activities of paramount importance. Also, adhering to traditions of the SLFUE, the organizers of the conference have organized a panel discussion on ‘Fostering Balanced Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: Challenges and Policy Reforms’ and prominent scholars in the field of economics are being invited to the panel. I am sure that, the presence of the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka as the Chief Guest will illuminate the conference further. Themes of the conference and panel discussions will enlighten the economists on issues and challenges of Sri Lankan economy and the economic policy reforms required. Thus, I am pleased to state that the present chair of the SLFUE, Prof. Y.M. Wickramasinghe, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, has paved a common platform for economists, policy makers and other development practitioners to exchange their views on the above themes. I would like to take this opportunity to extend my heartfelt thanks to Prof. Y.M. Wickramasinghe, Chair SLFUE 2017, Dr. RPIR Prasanna and Dr. PMB Jayathilake, Co-chairs of the Conference, Dr. PSK Rajapakshe, the Coordinator of the Conference, and all other members of the organizing committee for their efforts in making the conference a success. Finally, I congratulate all presenters and participants. Professor Ranjith Wijayawardana The Vice Chancellor Rajarata University of Sri Lanka iii Message of the Chairman The Sri Lanka Forum of University Economists It is my great pleasure to write this message to the proceedings of the 6th International Conference of the Sri Lanka Forum of University Economists hosted by Rajarata University of Sri Lanka. The SLERC has always been providing a common platform for the economists to present their research and to share their experience in identifying solution to national as well as global economic issues. Having this objective in mind, “Strengthening Economic Resilience for Inclusive Growth” was identified as the theme of the SLERC 2017. I strongly believe that, valuable presentations will be done by renowned researchers, academics and practitioners based on the findings of the research they have done nationally and internationally. I am optimistic that, these findings would be useful in identifying solutions to some of the burning economic problems in Sri Lanka. Frist, I wish to extend my sincere gratitude to Prof. Ranjith Wijayawardana, Vice Chancellor of the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka for his invaluable contributions. I must use this opportunity to extend my sincere gratitude and warm wishes to the organizing committee of the SLERC 2017, presenters, academic and non-academic staff members of Rajarata University of Sri Lanka who were the pillars of strength in making this event a success. I wish all the presenters and participants a successful, productive, and memorable session. Professor Y. M. Wickramasinghe Chair, SLFUE 2017 Rajarata University of Sri Lanka iv Message of the Coordinator Sri Lanka Economics Research Conference (SLERC) 2017 It is with great pleasure and pride as the Coordinator, I write this message for the Proceedings of the 6th International Conference of the Sri Lanka Forum of University Economists- SLERC 2017 hosted by Rajarata University of Sri Lanka. As the Chair of the SLFUE for the year 2017, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka embarked upon the challenge in organizing the SLERC 2017 and the unique opportunity of hosting an international conference is indeed a great privilege and pride for the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka in general and SLFUE members of the University in particular. We of the opinion that this international conference would bring together academics, industry and policy makers from different institutions around the country and overseas. Under the timely and policy relevant theme of the conference ‘Strengthening Economic Resilience for Inclusive Growth’, it provides an ideal and intellectual platform for the economists in Sri Lanka and overseas to create an academically stimulating environment to exchange their views and share the knowledge gained through innovative and policy relevance research findings. This conference further enlightens the participants with the panel discussion to be held on ‘Balanced Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: Challenges and Policy Reforms’ with the contribution of prominent scholars in Sri Lanka will certainly provide ample opportunity creating a healthy dialogue among the economists and all other interested parties on contemporary economic issues. Finally, let me warmly welcome all paper presenters, reviewers, panel members and overseas participants and the academics of entire university system of Sri Lanka. Moreover, financial support given by the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, National Science Foundation (NSF), Peoples Bank and the Bank of Ceylon to make this event is greatly acknowledged. SLERC 2017 would not have been possible without the generous support and dedication made by many individuals and institutions. First of all, I wish to extend my sincere gratitude to Prof. Ranjith Wijayawardana, Vice Chancellor of the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka for the invaluable support given. I also extend my sincere gratitude to Prof. YM Wickramasinghe, Chair SLFUE 2017 and the organizing committee for their untiring efforts and dedication to make this event a success. I wish the SLERC 2017 will be a successful, productive, interactive and a memorable event. Dr. P.S.K. Rajapakshe Coordinator SLERC 2017 v Message of the Chief Guest Sri Lanka Economic Research Conference (SLERC) 2017 It gives me great pleasure to issue this message on the occasion of the 6th International Conference of the Sri Lanka Forum of University Economists. The theme of the conference ‘Strengthening Economic Resilience for Inclusive Growth’ highlights three interrelated aspects that should be considered in macroeconomic management, namely growth, inclusiveness and resilience. As a country, we aspire to enhance our economic prospects and graduate towards an upper middle income economy in the near future. This cannot be achieved without the support of all stakeholders in the economy. At the same time, the benefits of this growth should be shared by all, resulting in the uplifting of the livelihoods of all people. Hence, inclusive growth, which provides all people access to gainful economic opportunities, is essential in eradicating poverty, creating productive employment and improving income distribution, thus resulting in an equitable growth process. While the envisaged high growth path needs to be inclusive, due attention should be given to improve the resilience of the economy as a whole and at the individual level. However, there exist numerous challenges that inhibit the realisation of economic development and some of these emanate from the exogenous shocks such as natural disasters, commodity market volatility and changes in policies of key economies. Hence, in order to improve prospects of all stakeholders by achieving higher economic growth, we should formulate appropriate policies both in terms of risk mitigation and promoting inclusiveness, and take measures towards implementing these in a timely and an efficient manner. Sound macroeconomic fundamentals increase the resilience of an economy and lay the foundation for sustained growth. Productive employment is the
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