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Astrazeneca 17Th January 2013 Attractive Risk-Reward As New CEO Comes in Healthcare Fair Value 3440P Vs

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Astrazeneca 17Th January 2013 Attractive Risk-Reward As New CEO Comes in Healthcare Fair Value 3440P Vs INDEPENDENT RESEARCH AstraZeneca 17th January 2013 Attractive risk-reward as new CEO comes in Healthcare Fair Value 3440p vs. 2860p (price 3,042p) BUY vs. NEUTRAL Bloomberg AZN LN Among the big names in the pharmaceutical industry, AstraZeneca is Reuters AZN.L obviously one of the few which carries in principle one of the most 12-month High / Low (p) 3,112 / 2,591 significant upsides considering its current valuation, provided the new Market capitalisation (GBPm) 37,921 Enterprise Value (BG estimates GBPm) 39,062 CEO, Pascal Soriot, is able not only to present a comprehensive and Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 2,247 clear strategy but also to package his speech in an attractive manner Free Float 100% for the investment community to jump in as early as the beginning of 3y EPS CAGR [2012-2015] -1.2% Gearing (12/11) 8% 2013. Dividend yields (12/12e) 5.72% On 31 January 2013, Pascal Soriot is expected to present his initial YE December 12/11 12/12e 12/13e 12/14e thoughts about how to drive AstraZeneca forward and which strategy to Revenue (USDm) 33,591 28,081 27,524 27,251 EBIT(USDm) 12,795 7,921 7,818 8,334 implement. Since he took over as CEO on 1 October 2012, he has spent Basic EPS (USD) 7.33 4.81 4.58 5.04 much time meeting people within the group and also key shareholders to Core EPS (USD) 7.72 6.71 6.13 6.33 EV/Sales 1.9x 2.2x 2.2x 2.0x make the best possible assessment of the situation and to hear their EV/EBITDA 4.1x 6.0x 5.6x 5.0x expectations and hopes before presenting a roadmap. EV/EBIT 4.9x 7.9x 7.6x 6.7x P/E 6.3x 7.3x 8.0x 7.7x However, based on what he already disclosed during the Q3 conference ROCE 39.3 20.5 21.1 23.5 call, we believe it is worth addressing (i.e. before his speech) the points Price as close of 15/01/13 Pascal Soriot is likely to highlight to try and convince investors that a 16/1/13 120 new story is ahead, including growth platforms to act upon. 115 110 Although AstraZeneca is a strange animal, the situation is not that 105 different to what Chris Viehbacher embraced when he joined Sanofi. 100 And if Pascal Soriot is as good and convincing as his peer four years ago 95 then things could change fairly quickly and the stock behave accordingly. 90 As it is not diversified, AstraZeneca has fewer possibilities to offset 85 patent losses and/or R&D delivery delays but obviously Brilinta, the 80 J F M A M J J A S O N D J ASTRAZENECA STOXX EUROPE 600 E - PRICE INDEX diabetes franchise, or emerging markets are assets that could be more Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream efficiently managed. Japan and/or biologics at a later stage are too. And we might believe that a former Roche Head may have some ideas about how to reshuffle the oncology franchise as well. In the end, although it is difficult to anticipate what Pascal Soriot will tell, we deem the consensus is undemanding and as a consequence the risk- reward on the share is likely to be unbalanced in favour of the upside. As a consequence, with a new FV of 3,440p we are upgrading the stock to BUY. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Eric Le Berrigaud Mathieu Chabert 33(0) 1 56 68 75 33 Martial Descoutures [email protected] r r AstraZeneca Profit & Loss account (USDm) 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e Revenues by product (2011) Sales 32,660 33,269 33,591 28,081 27,524 27,251 27,082 26,505 Change (%) 3.4% 1.9% 1.0% -16.4% -2.0% -1.0% -0.6% -2.1% EBITDA 13,630 14,235 15,345 10,521 10,618 11,134 11,287 11,095 Nexium Rest of 13% EBIT 11,399 11,494 12,795 7,921 7,818 8,334 8,487 8,295 PTF Atacand 34% 4% Change (%) 24.7% 0.8% 11.3% -38.1% -1.3% 6.6% 1.8% -2.3% Core EBIT 13,621 13,603 13,932 11,078 10,267 10,334 10,357 10,165 Crestor Change (%) - -0.1% 2.4% -20.5% -7.3% 0.7% 0.2% -1.8% 20% Financial result (736) (517) (428) (448) (463) (397) (317) (241) Seroquel Pre-Tax profit 10,663 10,977 12,367 7,473 7,355 7,937 8,170 8,054 17% Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax 3,263 2,896 2,351 1,374 1,701 1,846 1,845 1,819 Symbicort Arimidex 10% Income from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2% Minority interests 23.0 25.0 33.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Reported net result 7,377 8,056 9,983 6,074 5,629 6,067 6,300 6,210 Core Net result 8,002 9,645 10,506 8,479 7,524 7,627 7,756 7,666 Change (%) 20.5% 8.9% -19.3% -11.3% 1.4% 1.7% -1.2% Cash -Flow Statement (USDm) Operating cash-flows 10,523 10,772 10,372 8,603 8,517 8,986 9,207 9,114 Revenues by geography (2011) Change in working capital (2,253) 249 (1,208) 153 (484) (20.7) (48.2) 3.4 Capex (net) 1,586 2,181 1,297 1000 900 900 900 900 Financial investments (269) 138 (289) 4,820 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rest of world US 24% 40% Dividends paid 2,988 3,371 3,777 3,665 3,438 3,372 3,352 3,352 Net Debt 1,235 (1,838) 1,766 1,836 (1,828) (5,563) (10,566) (15,425) Free Cash flow 10,425 8,481 8,376 2,630 8,102 8,106 8,355 8,210 Japan Rest of 9% Balance Sheet (USDm) emerging Shareholder funds 20,821 23,410 23,472 23,151 24,376 26,117 29,096 31,987 13% Canada 5% China France + Provisions 5,040 4,410 4,536 4,536 4,536 4,536 4,536 4,536 5% 4% + Net Debt 1,235 (1,838) 1,766 1,836 (1,828) (5,563) (10,566) (15,425) = Invested Capital 27,096 25,982 29,774 29,523 27,084 25,090 23,066 21,098 Tangible assets 31,160 30,996 29,324 32,744 31,044 29,344 27,644 25,944 Company description + Working Capital 3,671 3,920 2,712 2,865 2,380 2,360 2,311 2,315 AstraZeneca was formed in 1999 by the + Others / Miscellaneous (9,219) (10,416) (6,510) (6,734) (6,988) (7,262) (7,538) (7,809) merger of Swedish Astra and British = Capital employed 25,612 24,500 25,526 28,875 26,436 24,442 22,418 20,450 Total Balance Sheet 54,920 56,127 52,830 52,110 53,852 55,777 59,014 61,985 Zeneca. Originally a life science company, it then span off its Financial Ratios Operating margin 34.90 34.55 38.09 28.21 28.40 30.58 31.34 31.30 agrochemicals business (merged with Core operating margin 41.71 40.89 41.48 39.45 37.30 37.92 38.24 38.35 Novartis’ to form Syngenta) and Tax rate 30.60 27.00 21.96 20.00 23.00 23.00 0.0 22.58 focused on pharmaceuticals, divesting Net margin 22.59 24.01 29.74 21.20 20.49 22.34 23.29 23.46 some other minor diversifications and ROE (after tax) 40.13 36.23 42.73 25.65 23.83 24.21 22.93 20.44 ROCE (after tax) 30.22 28.70 39.28 20.55 21.12 23.54 33.23 26.88 acquiring biotech capabilities with CAT Gearing 5.93 -7.85 7.52 7.93 -7.50 -21.30 -36.32 -48.22 and then MedImmune. AstraZeneca Distribution rate 45.69 46.27 38.20 58.24 61.08 55.57 53.20 53.97 has strong brands like Nexium, Crestor Number of shares (diluted) (m) 1,448 1,438 1,361 1,263 1,228 1,204 1,197 1,197 or Seroquel and is currently facing a Per share data (USD) deep patent cliff. Time will tell whether Reported EPS 5.09 5.60 7.33 4.81 4.58 5.04 5.26 5.19 R&D revives and is able to deliver new Restated EPS 5.52 5.51 7.33 4.81 4.58 5.04 5.26 5.19 Core EPS 6.32 6.71 7.72 6.71 6.13 6.33 6.48 6.40 medicines that could offset part of sales change (%) 24.0% 6.1% 15.1% -13.1% -8.7% 3.4% 2.3% -1.2% lost to patent expiries. Goodwill per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NPV 14.27 16.14 17.08 18.12 19.63 21.44 24.04 26.43 Cash flow per share 7.27 7.49 7.62 6.81 6.94 7.46 7.69 7.61 FCF per share 7.20 5.90 6.15 2.08 6.60 6.73 6.98 6.86 Dividend per share 2.30 2.55 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.
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