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Proposed Minimum Flows and Levels for the Upper Segment of the Hillsborough River, from Crystal Springs to Morris Bridge, and Crystal Springs

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Proposed Minimum Flows and Levels for the Upper Segment of the Hillsborough River, from Crystal Springs to Morris Bridge, and Crystal Springs Proposed Minimum Flows and Levels for the Upper Segment of the Hillsborough River, from Crystal Springs to Morris Bridge, and Crystal Springs December, 2007 Proposed Minimum Flows and Levels for the Upper Segment of the Hillsborough River, from Crystal Springs to Morris Bridge, and Crystal Springs December, 2007 Ecologic Evaluation Section Resource Conservation and Development Department Southwest Florida Water Management District Brooksville, Florida 34604-6899 Adam Munson Marty Kelly Jonathan Morales Doug Leeper The Southwest Florida Water Management District (District) does not discriminate upon the basis of any individual’s disability status. This non- discriminatory policy involves every aspect of the District’s functions, including one’s access to, participation, employment, or treatment in its programs or activities. Anyone requiring accommodation as provided for in the American with Disabilities Act should contact (352) 796-7211 or 1-800-423-1476, extension 4215; TDD ONLY 1-800-231-6103; FAX (352) 754-6749. Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................. I TABLE OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... IV LIST OF TABLES..................................................................................................................................... XI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................XIV ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................................................XVII 1 MINIMUM FLOWS AND LEVELS.................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 OVERVIEW AND LEGISLATIVE DIRECTION..................................................1-1 1.2 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE......................................................................1-2 1.3 THE FLOW REGIME ................................................................................1-2 1.4 ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY AND SIGNIFICANT HARM.......................................1-4 1.5 SUMMARY OF THE APPROACH FOR DEVELOPING MINIMUM FLOWS .............1-5 1.5.1 A Building Block Approach ...........................................................1-6 1.6 FLOWS AND LEVELS ...............................................................................1-8 1.7 CONTENT OF REMAINING CHAPTERS .......................................................1-9 2 BASIN DESCRIPTION WITH EMPHASIS ON LAND USE, HYDROLOGY AND WATER QUALITY ................................................................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................2-1 2.2 WATERSHED DESCRIPTION .....................................................................2-1 2.2.1 Geographic Location ....................................................................2-1 2.2.2 Climate .........................................................................................2-3 2.2.3 Physiography................................................................................2-4 2.2.4 Hydrogeology ...............................................................................2-5 2.3 LAND USE CHANGES IN THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER WATERSHED...............2-6 2.3.1 Hillsborough River Watershed......................................................2-6 2.3.2 Mainstem Area ...........................................................................2-11 2.3.3 Blackwater Creek Sub-Basin......................................................2-15 2.3.4 Lake Thonotosassa/Flint Creek Sub-Basin ................................2-18 2.3.5 Cypress Creek Sub-Basin ..........................................................2-21 2.4 HYDROLOGY........................................................................................2-24 2.4.1 Overview ....................................................................................2-24 2.4.2 Florida River Flow Patterns and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation .................................................................................................2-24 2.4.3 Upper Hillsborough River Flow Trends.......................................2-27 2.4.4 Benchmark Periods ....................................................................2-55 2.4.5 Seasonal Flow Patterns and the Building Block Approach.........2-56 2.5 CRYSTAL SPRINGS SITE DESCRIPTION....................................................2-58 2.6 CRYSTAL SPRING FLOW AND ASSUMED DECLINES FROM WITHDRAWALS ..2-59 2.6.1 Historic flow data ........................................................................2-59 2.6.2 Examining the Historic Flow Record Based on Comparisons with Other Systems..........................................................................................2-62 i 2.6.3 Comparisons of Spring Flows using Simple Linear Regression Analysis ...................................................................................................2-63 2.6.4 Estimating the Anthropogenic Percentage of Flow Declines ......2-69 2.6.5 Construction of an Non-Anthropogenically Impacted Flow Record for Minimum Flow Purposes ...................................................................2-105 2.7 WATER CHEMISTRY............................................................................2-109 2.7.1 Water Quality Data ...................................................................2-109 2.7.2 Macronutrients: Phosphorus and Nitrogen ...............................2-110 2.7.3 Potassium and Trend Analysis of Selected Chemical Constituents2- 111 2.7.4 Crystal Springs Water Quality and Water Quality Changes in Numerous Spring Systems .....................................................................2-118 3 GOALS, ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES OF CONCERN AND KEY HABITAT INDICATORS ........ 3-1 3.1 GOAL –PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT HARM.................................................3-1 3.2 RESOURCES AND AREA OF CONCERN ......................................................3-2 3.3 RESOURCE MANAGEMENT GOALS AND KEY HABITAT INDICATORS..............3-2 3.3.1 Fish Passage and Recreational Use ............................................3-3 3.3.2 Wetted Perimeter Inflection Point .................................................3-4 3.3.3 In-Channel Habitats for Fish and Macroinvertebrates ..................3-4 3.3.4 Woody Habitats ............................................................................3-5 3.3.5 Hydrologic Connections Between the Channel and Floodplain ....3-6 4 TECHNICAL APPROACH FOR ESTABLISHING MINIMUM FLOWS AND LEVELS FOR THE UPPER HILLSBOROUGH RIVER.................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................4-1 4.2 TRANSECT LOCATIONS AND FIELD SAMPLING OF INSTREAM AND FLOODPLAIN HABITATS.........................................................................................................4-1 4.2.1 HEC-RAS Cross-Sections ............................................................4-3 4.2.2 PHABSIM Cross-Sections ............................................................4-3 4.2.3 Instream Habitat Cross-Sections..................................................4-4 4.2.4 Floodplain Vegetation Cross Sections..........................................4-4 4.3 MODELING APPROACHES........................................................................4-7 4.3.1 HEC-RAS Modeling......................................................................4-7 4.3.2 Physical Habitat Simulation (PHABSIM) Modeling .......................4-9 4.3.3 Recent and Long-term Positional Hydrograph/Analyses ............4-13 4.4 SEASONAL FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF BLOCKS 1, 2, AND 3 .................4-15 4.5 LOW FLOW THRESHOLD .......................................................................4-16 4.5.1 Wetted Perimeter........................................................................4-16 4.5.2 Fish Passage..............................................................................4-17 4.6 PRESCRIBED FLOW REDUCTION FOR BLOCK 1........................................4-19 4.6.1 PHABSIM – Application for Block 1............................................4-19 4.7 PRESCRIBED FLOW REDUCTION FOR BLOCK 2........................................4-20 4.7.1 PHABSIM – Application for Block 2............................................4-20 4.7.2 Snag and Exposed Root Habitat Analyses.................................4-21 4.8 PRESCRIBED FLOW REDUCTION FOR BLOCK 3........................................4-21 4.8.1 Floodplain Connection Analyses – Application for Block 3.........4-22 ii 5 RESULTS AND RECOMMENDED MINIMUM FLOWS.................................................................. 5-1 5.1 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................5-1 5.2 LOW-FLOW THRESHOLD .........................................................................5-1 5.2.1 Fish Passage Criteria ...................................................................5-1 5.2.2 Wetted Perimeter Criteria .............................................................5-2 5.2.3 Low-Flow Threshold .....................................................................5-3
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