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Dramatic Drop in Economic Output in 1Q 2020 Key Tan Lena [email protected] Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uobgroup.com/research Month In Review May 2020 DRAMATIC DROP IN ECONOMIC OUTPUT IN 1Q 2020 Real GDP (% q/q, sa except Singapore & US in q/q saar) 4Q 2019 1Q 2020 +1.8 +2.1 2.0 +1.5 +0.1 +0.4 +0.6 +0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -2.0 -0.5 -0.9 -2.0 -1.7 -2.2 -1.9 -4.0 -2.4 -3.8 -6.0 -4.7 -5.1 -4.7 -5.0 -5.8 -5.2 -5.3 -8.0 -10.0 -9.8 Eurozone France Italy Spain China Hong Kong Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Singapore US Japan KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM CHINA’S NPC SINGAPORE’S FORTITUDE BUDGET China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) was held on 22-28 May after Singapore announced its fourth round of support measures 2 months of delay. Some of the key takeaways from the meeting. worth S$33 billion focusing on 3 areas. Help businesses & workers to adapt and transform Total Budget Additional support to Dedicated households & community S$92.9 billion Funding to frontline 19.2% of GDP agencies China did not set an To increase the local Further tax & fees cuts annual growth target government special and financial support (for the first time) for bond issuance quota to keep business Fortitude Budget S$33 billion 2020, citing the need to CNY3.75 trillion in operations stable. for policy flexibility 2020 to boost Solidarity Budget S$5.1 billion amidst the infrastructure spending uncertainties. in the country. Resilience Budget S$48.4 billion Unity Budget S$6.4 billion To issue a Special New urban employment Treasury Bonds worth is targeted at more than 9 CNY1 trillion for local million in 2020 and is governments to counter likely to match the bulk AHEAD IN JUNE the impact from the supply of 8.74 million new COVID-19 pandemic. graduates entering the US FOMC Meeting labour market this year. 09-10 This meeting will be accompanied by both a Powell press conference and an updated Summary of Economic Projections. OUR VIEW AND FORECAST OPEC Meeting Real GDP (% y/y) The participating countries will meet again via 09-10 6.8 6.9 videoconference to determine further actions 6.7 6.1 While the government did not set a specific growth target for 2020 but going by the as needed to balance the market. This is other numeric targets, it can be inferred following the meeting on 12 April where the that China is likely to see a positive growth OPEC+ group agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels 1.8 this year, albeit to be one of the slowest in of crude oil per day for 2 months starting 1 May. its modern history. We maintain our GDP forecast for 2020 at 1.8%. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 46th G7 Summit 10-12 The meeting will be held via video conference. 1Y LPR In 2020 (%) UOB Quarterly Global Outlook On the fiscal front, we 4.15 18-19 Target dates for the release of our 3Q2020 expect further 30bps 4.05 4.05 quarterly report. cut to 1Y LPR to 3.55% by end-4Q 2020. We also see 3.85 3.85 ASEAN Summit room for another one 3.75 15-30 The summit originally scheduled to take place to two rounds of RRR on 8-9 April, has been postponed to tentative cut in the next 3-6 3.60 dates of between 15-30 June. months after three 3.55 rounds of RRR cuts so far this year. Brexit Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2Q 3Q 4Q 30 The deadline for EU and UK to decide whether the current deadline for negotiating an agreement requires an extension. Source: Media Reports, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Date: Friday, 29 May 2020 This publication is strictly for informational purposes only and shall not be transmitted, disclosed, copied or relied upon by any person for whatever purpose, and is also not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to its laws or regulations. This publication is not an offer, recommendation, solicitation or advice to buy or sell any investment product/securities/instruments. Nothing in this publication constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. The information contained in this publication is based on certain assumptions and analysis of publicly available information and reflects prevailing conditions as of the date of the publication. Any opinions, projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or performance of, including but not limited to, countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from actual events or results. The views expressed within this publication are solely those of the author’s and are independent of the actual trading positions of United Overseas Bank Limited, its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers and employees (“UOB Group”). Views expressed reflect the author’s judgment as at the date of this publication and are subject to change. UOB Group may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in the securities/instruments mentioned in the publication. UOB Group may have also issued other reports, publications or documents expressing views which are different from those stated in this publication. Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and objectivity of the information contained in this publication, UOB Group makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no responsibility or liability relating to any losses or damages howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed or information in this publication..
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