DOCSLIB.ORG

Poland Without the Euro a Cost Benefit Analysis 2 Polityka Insight Poland Without the Euro Index

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Poland Without the Euro a Cost Benefit Analysis 2 Polityka Insight Poland Without the Euro Index Poland without the euro A cost benefit analysis 2 Polityka Insight Poland without the euro Index EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 1. POLAND’S INTEGRATION WITHIN THE EURO AREA – THE CONTEXT 6 How to adopt the common currency? 8 Survey of social opinions and political positions on euro adoption 14 Analysis of probability of euro being introduced in Poland by 2030 15 2. COSTS OF DELAYING EURO ADOPTION 16 Measurable costs 17 Potential costs 21 Non-measurable costs 25 3. BENEFITS OF DELAYING EURO ADOPTION 28 Measurable benefits 29 Potential benefits 30 Non-measurable benefits 37 4. BALANCE OF COSTS AND BENEFITS OF DELAYING EURO ADOPTION 40 Balance of measurable effects 41 Balance of potential costs and benefits 42 Balance of non-measurable costs and benefits 45 SUMMARY 47 REFERENCES 49 A cost benefit analysis Polityka Insight 1 Executive summary This report deals with the question of adopting the euro in Poland. It differs from previous such works in two respects. First, our ques- tion is not “should Poland adopt the euro?” as the EU Treaties oblige all Member States who joined the EU after the Maastricht Treaty came into force to join the eurozone. Hence, we focus on the implications of Poland's decision to delay its adoption of the common currency. Second, in contrast to previous studies we distinguish between different types of costs and benefits – we identify those which are measurable, those which are po- tential and those which are non-measurable, i.e. are of socio-political nature. In our view such a distinction is required to assess the effects of adopting the euro on the Polish economy in a way which incorporates the possible differenc- es in the preferences of decision-makers and public opinion. Further, we should not treat in the same way those consequences of monetary integration which are certain and easily measurable (e.g. the reduction of transaction costs) and those which are less certain and can only be roughly estimated (e.g. the in- crease in investment activity or reduction in cost competitiveness of exports). Our cost and benefit analysis does not yield an unequivocal answer to the question of whether and to what extent the Polish government should forego preparations for monetary integration. Our objective is to provide an overview of the relevant literature and to make the debate more systematic, thus devel- oping a dynamic framework for further research. While the ratio of measurable costs and benefits suggests that adopting the euro could give Poland an additional growth stimulus, such an effect would be small (0.7 per cent of GDP), i.e. within the margin of growth forecast error. Most significant costs and benefits are the only potential, which are contin- gent on the institutional framework. Premature and badly prepared monetary integration could result in economic losses significantly exceeding the measur- able benefits of early full EMU membership – our estimates suggest that that long-term GDP loss could reach even 7.5 percent. On the other hand, monetary integration preceded by sound institutional preparation would bring Poland an additional growth stimulus for the next decades - GDP could be higher by as much as 7.8 percent. This would be the case in particular with improved regulations of labour and financial markets, a relatively weak conversion rate of złoty to euro, additionally supported by a responsible and non-populist fiscal policy, i.e. budgetary discipline also at the peak of the economic cycle. 2 Polityka Insight Poland without the euro Executive summary Measurable consequences of delayed euro adoption higher transaction costs in the economy higher interest rates on loans higher public debt servicing costs no one-off costs of currency conversion Potential consequences of delayed euro adoption slower domestic demand growth slower export growth no share in the ECB profit disbursement lower probability of a house price bubble higher cost competitiveness of the economy lower price level smaller amplitude of business cycle fluctuations Non-measurable consequences of delayed euro adoption limited influence over political decisions concerning the European Union’s future higher social and political risk resulting from foreign currency denominated or indexed loans higher susceptibility to speculative attacks and risk of crises no access to funds from the euro area budget higher independence of economic policy lower susceptibility to euro area crises A cost benefit analysis Polityka Insight 3 The report was produced in partnership with The Friendly State Foundation. The report is impartial and objective; the partner had no influence over its thesis or content. All rights reserved. The Friendly State Foundation was created in 2013 by private founders. NGO's statutory objectives include carrying out research and analysis concerning regulation and economy, promotion of economic liberties and entrepreneurship growth, educational activity, encouraging civic and social activity, increasing the effectiveness of government and local government activities. All reports, analyses and publications of the Foundation are available at przyjaznykraj.pl. Polityka Insight is the first platform of knowledge in Poland designed for business CEOs, politicians and ambassadors accredited to Poland. It was founded six years ago and currently consists of three business lines: analytical services (PI Premium, PI Finance and PI Energy), tailored research services (e.g. reports, presentations and workshops prepared for companies, administration and international organisations), as well as high-profile events and conferences. www.politykainsight.pl/en Warsaw, March 2019 4 Polityka Insight Poland without the euro AUTHORS Adam Czerniak Chief Economist Agnieszka Smoleńska Senior European Affairs Analyst EDITOR Adam Puchejda GRAPHIC DESIGN Anna Olczak A cost benefit analysis Polityka Insight 5 1. Poland’s integration within the euro area – the context 6 Polityka Insight Poland without the euro This section reviews the institutional architecture of the euro area – that is, the set-up within which the decision to delay or speed up integration with the common currency area is made. Monetary integration within the European Union was foreseen as part of the European integration project since its inception. It was hardly – as is sometimes depicted - the cost borne by Berlin for France not to object to the unification of Ger- many in 1990s (Mody, 2018). Early reports of the European Commission consider monetary integration as the pinnacle of the internal market project – the final step of removing barriers between Member States. The necessary economic convergence was to be supported by the antecedents of cohesion policies introduced in 1980s by the then President of the European Commission, Jacques Delors. Economic and Monetary Union finally came into being with the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, and the common currency (euro) entered circulation in 12 Member States of the Union on 1 January 2002. These countries were: Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. In 2007 they were joined by Slovenia, followed by Malta and Cyprus in 2008, Slovakia in 2009, Estonia in 2011, Latvia in 2014 and Lithuania in 2015. Currently 19 of the 28 European Union Member States use the euro. The financial crisis of 2008, which two years later in some of the euro area Mem- ber States transformed into a sovereign debt crisis, was the first real test of the EMU. It has brought to the surface the shortcomings of the European Monetary Union construction that contributed to aggravating the economic crisis in some countries. These included the lack of safety mechanisms or common supervision over the banking sector (Padoa-Schioppa, 2005), which led to disintegration of Eu- ropean financial markets (a decrease in cross-border transactions, divergence in risk assessment of different Member States (Draghi, 2018)). Euro area reforms since the crisis had as their objective the reintegration of banking systems of the euro area under single supervision, the introduction of risk-sharing (via financial markets as well as stabilization mechanisms) and greater synchronization of busi- ness cycles. New economic governance mechanisms and institutions were intro- duced (Pisani-Ferry, 2014; Sandbu, 2017), the most significant of which we describe below. These reforms have importantly changed the ratio of costs and benefits of Poland adopting the euro. A cost benefit analysis Polityka Insight 7 How to adopt the common currency? EU Treaties define the eurozone as an area where a common monetary policy is pur- sued. A distinct institution was created to this end – the European Central Bank (ECB) – whose objective is to maintain price stability and, without prejudice to this objective – to support economic policies of the Union in accordance with the principle of an open market economy with free competition (Art. 119(2) TFEU and Art. 127 TFEU). All Member States of the EU, apart from Denmark and – until it leaves the EU – the United Kingdom, are members of the Economic and Monetary Union. Countries which joined the European Union after the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1992 have the status of “Member States with a derogation.” These are (in the order of joining the EU): Sweden, Czechia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Poland, Romania and Croatia. These countries do not participate in the final (third) phase of the EMU, but are part of some of the institutions of monetary integration, such as the European System of Central Banks. In accordance
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Should Poland Join the Euro? an Economic and Political Analysis
    Should Poland Join the Euro? An Economic and Political Analysis Should Poland Join the Euro? An Economic and Political Analysis Graduate Policy Workshop February 2016 Michael Carlson Conor Carroll Iris Chan Geoff Cooper Vanessa Lehner Kelsey Montgomery Duc Tran Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ i About the WWS Graduate Policy Workshop ........................................................................................ ii Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2 2 The Evolution of Polish Thought on Euro Adoption ................................................................. 5 2.1 Pre-EU membership reforms ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 After EU Accession ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Crisis years ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Post-crisis assessment ..................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • A Report on the Costs and Benefits of Poland’S Adoption of the Euro
    A Report on the Costs and Benefits of Poland’s Adoption of the Euro Warsaw, March 2004 Edited by: Jakub Borowski Authors: Jakub Borowski Micha∏ Brzoza-Brzezina Anna Czoga∏a Tatiana Fic Adam Kot Tomasz J´drzejowicz Wojciech Mroczek Zbigniew Polaƒski Marek Rozkrut Micha∏ Rubaszek Andrzej S∏awiƒski Robert Woreta Zbigniew ˚ó∏kiewski The authors thank Andrzej Bratkowski, Adam B. Czy˝ewski, Ma∏gorzata Golik, Witold Grostal, Andrzej Rzoƒca, El˝bieta Skrzeszewska-Paczek, Iwona Stefaniak, Piotr Szpunar and Lucyna Sztaba for their numerous and insightful remarks on earlier drafts of this Report. The authors thank professor Michael J. Artis for his excellent assistance with the English language version of the Report. The Report was submitted for publishing in March 2004. Design: Oliwka s.c. Printed by: Drukarnia NBP Published by: National Bank of Poland 00-919 Warszawa, ul. Âwi´tokrzyska 11/21, Poland Phone (+48 22) 653 23 35 Fax (+48 22) 653 13 21 © Copyright Narodowy Bank Polski, 2004 2 National Bank of Poland Table of contents Table of contents Executive Summary . .5 Introduction . .9 1. Conditions for accession to the euro area . .13 2. Risks and costs of introducing the euro . .15 2.1. Loss of monetary policy independence . .15 2.1.1. The effectiveness of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism . .18 2.1.2. Labour market adjustment mechanism . .25 2.1.3. The fiscal adjustment mechanism . .27 2.1.4. Convergence of business cycles . .30 2.1.5. Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Area criteria . .36 2.2. Short-term cost of meeting the inflation convergence criterion . .37 2.3.
    [Show full text]
  • 247 – £Ukasz W
    2 4 7 £ukasz W. Rawdanowicz Poland's Accession to EMU – Choosing the Exchange Rate Parity W a r s a w , 2 0 0 2 Materials published here have a working paper character. They can be subject to further publication. The views and opinions expressed here reflect Authors’ point of view and not necessarily those of the CASE. The publication was financed by AIG Pension Society. Key words: real exchange rates, equilibrium exchange rates, EMU enlargement. Acknowledgements: I am greatly indebted to Przemek Kowalski and Mateusz Szczurek for their valuable and inspiring comments, and their help with collecting data. © CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw 2002 Graphic Design: Agnieszka Natalia Bury DTP: CeDeWu Sp. z o.o. ISSN 1506-1701, ISBN 83-7178-298-5 Publisher: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research ul. Sienkiewicza 12, 00-944 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (4822) 622 66 27, 828 61 33, fax (4822) 828 60 69 e-mail: [email protected] Contents Abstract 5 1. Introduction 6 2. Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate 7 2.1. PPP 7 2.2. FEER 8 2.3. BEER 9 3. Empirical Estimations 10 3.1. FEER Calculations 11 3.2. BEER Estimations 18 4. What Should Be the Entry Exchange Rate? 20 5. Conclusions 25 References 27 Statistical Appendix 29 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 247 – £ukasz W. Rawdanowicz £ ukasz W. Rawdanowicz £ukasz Rawdanowicz graduated from Sussex University in 1998 (MA in International Economics) and Warsaw University - Department of Economics in 1999 (MA in quantitative methods). His main area of interest is macroeconomics and econometrics.
    [Show full text]
  • Ertising in Science in School · Choose Between Advertising in the Quarterly Print Journal Or on Our Website
    How many schools Spring 2011 Issue 18 and teachers do you reach – worldwide? In this issue: Biomimetics: clingy as an octopus or slick as a lotus leaf? Also: News from the EIROs: Mars, snakes, robots and DNA Advertising in Science in School · Choose between advertising in the quarterly print journal or on our website. · Website: reach over 30 000 science educators worldwide – every month. · In print: target up to 15 000 European science educators every quarter, including 3000 named subscribers. · Distribute your flyers, brochures, CD-ROMs or other materials either to 3000 named subscribers or to all recipients of the print copies. For more details, see www.scienceinschool.org/advertising Published by EIROforum: I S S N : 1 Initially supported by 8 1 Subscribe (free in Europe): www.scienceinschool.org 8 the European Union: - Highlighting the best in science teaching and research 0 3 5 3 sis_18_RZ_.qxq:Layout 1 15.03.2011 18:08 Uhr Seite B About Science in School Science in School promotes inspiring science teaching by encouraging communication between Editorial teachers, scientists and everyone else involved in European science education. The journal addresses science teaching both across Europe and across disciplines: highlighting the best in teaching and cutting-edge research. It covers not only biology, physics and chemistry, but also earth sciences, engineering and medicine, Happy birthday, focusing on interdisciplinary work. The contents include teaching materials; cutting-edge science; interviews with young scientists and inspiring Science in School! teachers; reviews of books and other resources; and European events for teachers and schools. Science in School is published quarterly, both online his issue of Science in School is rather special: it’s now and in print.
    [Show full text]
  • Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: U.S. and EU Export Activities, and Barriers and Opportunities Experienced by U.S
    United States International Trade Commission Small and Medium- Sized Enterprises: U.S. and EU Export Activities, and Barriers and Opportunities Experienced by U.S. Firms Investigation No. 332-509 USITC Publication 4169 July 2010 U.S. International Trade Commission COMMISSIONERS Deanna Tanner Okun, Chairman Charlotte R. Lane Daniel R. Pearson Shara L. Aranoff Irving A. Williamson Dean A. Pinkert Robert B. Koopman Acting Director of Operations Arona Butcher Karen Laney Acting Director of Economics Director, Office of Industries Address all communications to Secretary to the Commission United States International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 www.usitc.gov Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: U.S. and EU Export Activities, and Barriers and Opportunities Experienced by U.S. Firms Investigation No. 332-509 Publication 4169 July 2010 Project Leadership Justino De La Cruz, Project Leader [email protected] James Stamps, Deputy Project Leader [email protected] Laura Bloodgood, Office of Industries Coordinator [email protected] Principal Authors Laura Bloodgood William Greene George Serletis Nannette Christ Katherine Linton James Stamps Daniel Cook Brendan Lynch Donald Sussman Justino De La Cruz Ruben Mata Mihir Torsekar Michael Ferrantino Elizabeth Nesbitt Ralph Watkins Dennis Fravel William Powers Isaac Wohl Primary Reviewers Joanne Guth and Joanna Bonarriva Special Assistance From Tamar Asadurian William Gearhart Andrew Martinez Richard Brown Alberto Goetzl Jesse Mora Eric Cardenas Alexander Hammer Andrew Rylyk Dylan Carlson Peg Hausman Patricia M. Thomas Judith Dean Aimee Larsen Alison Weingarden Robert Feinberg Linda Linkins Linda White Office of Publishing Interns Bethany Bengfort, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Vincent Procacci, and Danielle Trachtenberg Under the Direction of Arona Butcher, Chief Country, Regional, and Analysis Division [email protected] ABSTRACT This report examines the extent and composition of U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • 5068/07 ADD1 REV 1 TB/Pm 1 DG GI COUNCIL OF
    COUNCIL OF Brussels, 21 February 2007 THE EUROPEAN UNION 5068/07 ADD 1 REV 1 UEM 2 ECOFIN 4 COVER NOTE No Cion doc: SEC(2006) 1786/2 Subject: Commission staff working document Annex to the communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Central Bank - Five years of euro banknotes and coins Delegations will find attached a new version of Commission document SEC(2006) 1786. ________________________ Encl. : SEC(2006) 1786/2 5068/07 ADD1 REV 1 TB/pm 1 DG G I EN COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 20.2.2007 SEC(2006) 1786/2 CORRIGENDUM: Ce document annule et remplace le SEC(2006)1786 du 22.12.2006. Concerne la page 28 de la version EN. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Annex to the COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE, THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK Five years of euro banknotes and coins {COM(2006) 862 final} EN EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................4 2. General trends of the circulation of euro banknotes and coins................................................................4 2.1. Use of cash as a means of payment in the euro area ...............................................................................4 2.2. Evolution of the circulation level of euro cash........................................................................................5
    [Show full text]
  • A Place at the Top Table? Poland and the Euro Crisis
    Reinvention of Europe Project A place at the top table? Poland and the euro crisis By Konstanty Gebert If you want to dine at the European Union’s top table it is important to be able to count on powerful friends who can help you pull up a chair. With an economy only one quarter that of Germany’s, and a population half its size, Poland cannot and does not aspire to have a permanent chair at that top table. But neither can it – with a population accounting for half of all the 2004 enlargement states and an economy among the best-performing in a crisis-ridden EU – content itself with merely a seat at the lower table. This is the challenge facing Poland, as it seeks to follow its developing interests and make its voice heard at a time when the most powerful countries in the EU are pulling in very different directions. Poland’s position within the EU is further complicated by its straddling of several dividing lines. For instance, its future is fundamentally tied to the Eurozone club that it does not belong to but very deeply desires to participate in. It managed to assume the rotating EU presidency for the first time just as the deepest crisis to affect the Union was deepening even further. Following on from the Lisbon Treaty, however, the presidency’s influence is now much reduced, and so Poland was relegated to being a mere observer of decisions made by others, mostly over the future of the Eurozone. Poland also straddles the demographic and economic boundaries between the EU’s major players and its smaller ones (the sixth largest in both categories).
    [Show full text]
  • Financial System Development in Poland 2010
    Financial System Development in Poland 2010 Warsaw, 2012 Editors: Paweł Sobolewski Dobiesław Tymoczko Authors: Katarzyna Bień Jolanta Fijałkowska Marzena Imielska Ewelina Jaskólska Piotr Kasprzak Paweł Kłosiewicz Michał Konopczak Sylwester Kozak Dariusz Lewandowski Krzysztof Maliszewski Rafał Nowak Dorota Okseniuk Aleksandra Paterek Aleksandra Pilecka Rafał Sieradzki Karol Siskind Paweł Sobolewski Andrzej Sowiński Mikołaj Stępniewski Michał Wiernicki Andrzej Wojciechowski Design, cover photo: Oliwka s.c. DTP: Print Office NBP Published by: National Bank of Poland Education and Publishing Department 00-919 Warsaw, Świętokrzyska 11/21, Poland Phone 48 22 653 23 35 Fax 48 22 653 13 21 www.nbp.pl © Copyright by National Bank of Poland, 2012 Introduction Table of contents Introduction . 5 1 . Financial system in Poland . 6 1.1. Evolution of the size and structure of the financial system in Poland . .6 1.2. Households and enterprises on the financial market in Poland .........................14 1.2.1. Financial assets of households ...............................................14 1.2.2. External sources of financing of Polish enterprises ................................18 2 . Regulations of the financial system . 21 2.1. Changes in financial system regulations in Poland ..................................21 2.1.1. Regulations affecting the entire financial services sector ...........................23 2.1.2. Regulations regarding the banking services sector ................................26 2.1.3. Regulations regarding non-bank financial institutions .............................32 2.1.4. Regulations regarding the capital market ......................................33 2.2. Measures of the European Union regarding the regulation of the financial services sector ....34 2.2.1. Regulations affecting the entire financial services sector ...........................34 2.2.2. Regulations regarding the banking services sector ................................39 2.2.3.
    [Show full text]
  • The Road to the Euro
    One currency for one Europe The road to the euro Ecomomic and Financial Aff airs One currency for one Europe The road to the euro One currency for one Europe The road to the euro CONTENTS: What is economic and monetary union? ....................................................................... 1 The path to economic and monetary union: 1957 to 1999 ............... 2 The euro is launched: 1999 to 2002 ........................................................................................ 8 Managing economic and monetary union .................................................................. 9 Looking forward to euro area enlargement ............................................................ 11 Achievements so far ................................................................................................................................... 13 The euro in numbers ................................................................................................................................ 17 The euro in pictures .................................................................................................................................... 18 Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20 2 Idreamstock © One currency for one Europe The road to the euro What is economic and monetary union? Generally, economic and monetary union (EMU) is part of the process of economic integration. Independent
    [Show full text]
  • Central and Eastern Europe in the European Union
    This work has been published by the European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies. © European University Institute 2018 Editorial matter and selection © Michał Matlak, Frank Schimmelfennig, Tomasz P. Woźniakowski, 2018 Chapters © authors individually 2018 doi:10.2870/675963 ISBN:978-92-9084-707-6 QM-06-18-198-EN-N This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the year and the publisher Views expressed in this publication reflect the opinion of individual authors and not those of the European University Institute. Artwork: ©Shutterstock: patrice6000 The European Commission supports the EUI through the European Union budget. This publication reflects the views only of the author(s), and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. EUROPEANIZATION REVISITED: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION Editors: Michał Matlak, Frank Schimmelfennig and Tomasz P. Woźniakowski In memoriam Nicky Owtram TABLE OF CONTENTS Biographies 1 Acknowledgments 4 Foreword 5 Europeanization Revisited: An Introduction Tomasz P. Woźniakowski, Frank Schimmelfennig and Michał Matlak 6 The Europeanization of Eastern Europe: the External Incentives Model Revisited Frank Schimmelfennig and Ulrich Sedelmeier 19 New
    [Show full text]
  • Information Guide Economic and Monetary Union
    Information Guide Economic and Monetary Union A guide to the European Union’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with hyperlinks to sources of information within European Sources Online and on external websites Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................... 2 Background .......................................................................................................... 2 Legal basis ........................................................................................................... 2 Historical development of EMU ................................................................................ 4 EMU - Stage One ................................................................................................... 6 EMU - Stage Two ................................................................................................... 6 EMU - Stage Three: The euro .................................................................................. 6 Enlargement and future prospects ........................................................................... 9 Practical preparations ............................................................................................11 Global economic crisis ...........................................................................................12 Information sources in the ESO database ................................................................19 Further information sources on the internet .............................................................19
    [Show full text]
  • Poland's Reluctance to Join the Eurozone
    1 % POLICY PAPER Poland’s reluctance to join the Eurozone: why the vision of development matters Sebastian Płóciennik § Among explanations why Poland does not fulfill its obligation to join the eurozone, more attention should be devoted to the orientation of Polish capitalism, which is now in the middle of difficult transition from the model of competitiveness based on low-cost labor to competitiveness based on innovations. In recent years, the very content of this systemic change has been a rising role of the state in the economy and a more ambitious social agenda. They both can be at odds with a fast track towards the euro. 2 % Introduction monetary union might have come from the expert discussion on whether the benefits of monetary integration will be as high as promised and costs lower than feared.3 It Despite the obligation to join the eurozone, expressed is difficult to create a convincing pro-euro political narrative in the 2004 EU accession treaty, Poland remains today quite from the sophisticated exchange of arguments, including far away from adopting the common currency. It is not only the lower risk of speculation, transaction costs, risk of an issue of unfulfilled criteria for joining, but also of the higher inflation, threat of asymmetric shocks, advantages of society that perceives this step of deeper integration with monetary autonomy, etc., when what really breaks through reluctance. The polls conducted in recent years showed a to the audience is the potential problem of higher prices. prevalence of thinking that euro-membership would have more negative than positive consequences for the country This text aims at exploring a less conspicuous, but 1 (Figure 1) , and the political scene reflects this conviction.
    [Show full text]